Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSE:RSI)
TSX:RSI
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Rogers Sugar
(TSX:RSI)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$7.00
â–²(5.26% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/07/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (stronger profitability and cash flow with moderating leverage) and supportive valuation (moderate P/E and high dividend yield). Technicals add a positive tailwind with the stock above key moving averages. The earnings call tempers the outlook due to volume/revenue pressure, trade uncertainty, and some nonrecurring benefits in recent results.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Sustained improvement in operating cash flow and meaningful positive free cash flow provide durable funding for core capex, dividends and the LEAP project without immediate reliance on costly external financing. Strong OCF also builds resilience versus cyclical volume weakness and supports steady liquidity over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Sugar volume and revenue pressure
Sugar is the core cash-generating segment; sustained volume and revenue declines reduce capacity utilization and leverage fixed costs. Guidance lowering full-year sugar sales and disrupted export channels mean top-line risk persists and could compress margins and cash flow if volumes do not stabilize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Sustained improvement in operating cash flow and meaningful positive free cash flow provide durable funding for core capex, dividends and the LEAP project without immediate reliance on costly external financing. Strong OCF also builds resilience versus cyclical volume weakness and supports steady liquidity over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Rogers Sugar (RSI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$852.63M
Dividend Yield5.99%
Average Volume (3M)252.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.7
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth6.57%
EPS Growth8.61%
CountryCA
Employees956
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Confectioners
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding128,215,740
10 Day Avg. Volume229,196
30 Day Avg. Volume252,409
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.45
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio24.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$6.92Price Target Upside4.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.25B
Rogers Sugar Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rogers Sugar Inc. engages in refining, packaging, and marketing sugar and maple products. The company operates through two segments, Sugar and Maple Products. It offers granulated, plantation raw, yellow, brown, organic, icing, maple, stevia, smar...
How the Company Makes Money
Rogers Sugar generates revenue primarily through the sale of sugar products to various sectors including food and beverage manufacturers, retail grocery stores, and foodservice operators. The company's revenue model is based on the production and ...
Rogers Sugar Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture driven by stronger adjusted EBITDA (+18%), higher net earnings (+27%), solid free cash flow and continued progress on the LEAP expansion. These positives were tempered by meaningful revenue and sugar volume declines, a portion of the quarter’s outperformance attributable to timing and one‑time items, export market disruption from trade/tariff dynamics, and modest cost pressures that are expected to persist. On balance, the company’s profitability, cash generation, balance-sheet actions and LEAP progress outweigh the near-term volume and revenue challenges, though trade uncertainty and some nonrecurring benefits warrant monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong consolidated profitability
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $47.0M in Q1, up 18% year-over-year; adjusted net earnings of $25.0M, up 27% YoY; adjusted net earnings per share $0.19 vs $0.15 prior year (+27%).
Negative Updates
Quarterly revenue decline
Consolidated revenues fell to just under $300M in Q1 from $331M a year earlier, a decline of ~9.7% YoY driven largely by lower average Raw #11 sugar prices and reduced Sugar volumes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong consolidated profitability
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $47.0M in Q1, up 18% year-over-year; adjusted net earnings of $25.0M, up 27% YoY; adjusted net earnings per share $0.19 vs $0.15 prior year (+27%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and targets included a Q1 performance baseline of consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $47.0M (up 18% y/y) and adjusted net earnings of $25M ($0.19/share vs $0.15), trailing‑12‑month free cash flow of $89.3M (≈+4% y/y; +$11M excluding tax‑timing), and Q1 revenues just under $300M (vs $331M); for operations Q1 sugar volume was 175,000 metric tonnes (down ~21,000 t), sugar revenues $226M (‑15%), adjusted gross margin/ton $304 (up $79), sugar adjusted EBITDA $41M (up $7M), maple Q1 revenues $72M (+8%) with maple adjusted EBITDA $5.8M and volumes +8%; full‑year guidance targets ~750,000 tonnes of sugar sales (≈‑4% vs 2025) and 56 million pounds of maple (≈+5% y/y), capital spending of about $27M (ex‑LEAP) with $25M spent this quarter, LEAP cost to complete unchanged at $280–300M with start‑up targeted H1 2027, while distribution, production/maintenance and interest costs are expected to edge slightly higher and the quarterly dividend is maintained.Rogers Sugar Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.29B | 1.31B | 1.23B | 1.10B | 1.01B | 893.93M |
| Gross Profit | 203.97M | 192.24M | 175.87M | 165.73M | 130.81M | 139.74M |
| EBITDA | 155.33M | 137.76M | 122.88M | 119.50M | 41.02M | 108.07M |
| Net Income | 77.20M | 64.45M | 53.73M | 51.79M | -16.57M | 47.53M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.14B | 1.16B | 1.08B | 960.90M | 937.96M | 879.93M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.75M | 8.54M | 19.12M | 46.00K | 151.00K | 15.64M |
| Total Debt | 436.77M | 387.74M | 380.88M | 438.37M | 397.79M | 365.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 668.94M | 704.39M | 656.33M | 654.00M | 646.54M | 560.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 474.77M | 458.45M | 422.41M | 306.90M | 291.42M | 318.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 68.62M | 32.75M | 13.71M | 8.92M | -2.18M | 53.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 164.83M | 121.44M | 79.79M | 44.32M | 21.55M | 78.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -96.21M | -88.69M | -66.08M | -35.40M | -23.73M | -24.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -84.08M | -43.36M | 5.36M | -8.89M | -13.55M | -40.16M |
Rogers Sugar Technical Analysis
Positive
6.65
Price Trends
6.48
Positive
6.22
Positive
6.04
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
58.37
Neutral
50.83
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:RSI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.59, above the 50-day MA of 6.48, and above the 200-day MA of 6.04, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:RSI.
Rogers Sugar Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$3.82B | 5.72 | 11.72% | 4.95% | -0.03% | 497.79% | |
73 Outperform | C$852.63M | 6.68 | 16.98% | 5.99% | 6.57% | 8.61% | |
69 Neutral | C$2.65B | 13.57 | 18.44% | 3.27% | 2.08% | 9.31% | |
69 Neutral | C$1.60B | 10.00 | 13.72% | 2.00% | 17.69% | 13.69% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | C$391.36M | 8.64 | 8.89% | 4.83% | 6.15% | -36.76% | |
46 Neutral | C$4.44B | 112.26 | 3.82% | 3.34% | 13.05% | -33.72% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TSE:RSI
Rogers Sugar
6.65
1.52
29.68%
TSE:HLF
High Liner Foods
13.83
-1.93
-12.23%
TSE:MFI
Maple Leaf Foods
30.66
10.69
53.51%
TSE:NWC
North West
55.60
5.20
10.32%
TSE:PBH
Premium Brands
85.07
11.39
15.46%
TSE:LAS.A
Lassonde
234.70
39.69
20.35%
Rogers Sugar Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Rogers Sugar Shareholders Back Board Slate, Align Governance at Lantic
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
Rogers Sugar Inc. announced that all director nominees listed in its December 17, 2025 management information circular were elected to the board at the company’s February 4, 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, each receiving strong majority...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Rogers Sugar Lifts Earnings and Cash Flow as LEAP Expansion Stays on Track
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
Rogers Sugar posted strong fiscal 2026 first-quarter results, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA rising 18% year over year to $46.9 million and adjusted net earnings climbing to $24.8 million despite lower sugar volumes. Performance was driven main...
Dividends
Rogers Sugar Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.09 per Share
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
Rogers Sugar Inc. has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share, payable on April 15, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 27, 2026. The move underscores the company’s ongoing commitment to returning capital to shareholders and...
Financial Disclosures
Rogers Sugar Schedules February 5 Call to Review Q1 2026 Results
Neutral
Jan 14, 2026
Rogers Sugar Inc. announced it will hold a conference call on February 5, 2026, to discuss its financial results for the first quarter of 2026, with Chief Executive Officer Michael Walton and Chief Financial Officer Jean-Sébastien Couillard l...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rogers Sugar Raises $57.5 Million in Convertible Debenture Financing to Cut Debt
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
Rogers Sugar Inc. has closed a $57.5 million bought deal public offering of Ninth Series convertible unsecured subordinated debentures, including the full exercise of the underwriters’ over-allotment option, at $1,000 per debenture. The debe...
Private Placements and Financing
Rogers Sugar to Raise Up to $57.5 Million Through Convertible Debenture Offering
Neutral
Jan 6, 2026
Rogers Sugar Inc. has launched a public offering of $50 million in Ninth Series convertible unsecured subordinated debentures, bearing interest at 5.50% and maturing on January 31, 2033, with an option for holders to convert them into common share...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rogers Sugar Reports Robust Profitability Growth in 2025
Positive
Nov 27, 2025
Rogers Sugar Inc. reported strong profitability growth for fiscal year 2025, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA reaching $150.4 million. The company’s performance was bolstered by disciplined execution and consistent demand in both its Sugar ...
Dividends
Rogers Sugar Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend
Positive
Nov 27, 2025
Rogers Sugar Inc. has announced a quarterly dividend of $0.09 per share, which will be paid to shareholders of record on December 26, 2025, and is payable on January 14, 2026. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to provid...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.