Rogers Sugar Inc. (TSE:RSI)
TSX:RSI
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Rogers Sugar
(TSX:RSI)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$7.50
â–²(17.00% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven mainly by improved profitability and stronger cash generation, supported by an attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). Technicals are broadly supportive with the stock above key moving averages. Offsetting these positives, the latest earnings call highlighted declining revenues/volumes, trade-related uncertainty, and some non-recurring/timing benefits in results, alongside expected cost and interest headwinds.
Positive Factors
Improved profitability & cash generation
Rogers Sugar moved from prior losses to materially stronger profitability and cash generation, with TTM free cash flow ~ $89M and rising adjusted EBITDA. That durable cash flow base supports dividends, funds LEAP spending and gives flexibility for capital allocation and deleveraging over months.
Negative Factors
Declining revenues & sugar volumes
Top-line weakness and materially lower sugar volumes indicate persistent demand or channel shifts that depress scale and fixed-cost absorption. With full-year sugar volume guidance trimmed, sustained lower throughput could pressure margins and returns until volumes recover or cost structure adjusts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved profitability & cash generation
Rogers Sugar moved from prior losses to materially stronger profitability and cash generation, with TTM free cash flow ~ $89M and rising adjusted EBITDA. That durable cash flow base supports dividends, funds LEAP spending and gives flexibility for capital allocation and deleveraging over months.
Read all positive factors
Rogers Sugar (RSI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$861.61M
Dividend Yield5.99%
Average Volume (3M)252.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.0
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth-3.84%
EPS Growth11.07%
CountryCA
Employees956
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Confectioners
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.52
Shares Outstanding128,215,740
10 Day Avg. Volume229,196
30 Day Avg. Volume252,409
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-6.45
Price to Book (P/B)1.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio24.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$6.63Price Target Upside3.35% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.23B
Rogers Sugar Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rogers Sugar Inc. engages in refining, packaging, and marketing sugar and maple products. The company operates through two segments, Sugar and Maple Products. It offers granulated, plantation raw, yellow, brown, organic, icing, maple, stevia, smar...
How the Company Makes Money
RSI makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling sugar and maple products, generating revenue from product sales to multiple customer channels. (1) Sugar segment revenue: The company refines raw sugar into finished sugar products and sells t...
Rogers Sugar Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial picture driven by stronger adjusted EBITDA (+18%), higher net earnings (+27%), solid free cash flow and continued progress on the LEAP expansion. These positives were tempered by meaningful revenue and sugar volume declines, a portion of the quarter’s outperformance attributable to timing and one‑time items, export market disruption from trade/tariff dynamics, and modest cost pressures that are expected to persist. On balance, the company’s profitability, cash generation, balance-sheet actions and LEAP progress outweigh the near-term volume and revenue challenges, though trade uncertainty and some nonrecurring benefits warrant monitoring.Positive Updates
Strong consolidated profitability
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $47.0M in Q1, up 18% year-over-year; adjusted net earnings of $25.0M, up 27% YoY; adjusted net earnings per share $0.19 vs $0.15 prior year (+27%).
Negative Updates
Quarterly revenue decline
Consolidated revenues fell to just under $300M in Q1 from $331M a year earlier, a decline of ~9.7% YoY driven largely by lower average Raw #11 sugar prices and reduced Sugar volumes.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong consolidated profitability
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $47.0M in Q1, up 18% year-over-year; adjusted net earnings of $25.0M, up 27% YoY; adjusted net earnings per share $0.19 vs $0.15 prior year (+27%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance and targets included a Q1 performance baseline of consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $47.0M (up 18% y/y) and adjusted net earnings of $25M ($0.19/share vs $0.15), trailing‑12‑month free cash flow of $89.3M (≈+4% y/y; +$11M excluding tax‑timing), and Q1 revenues just under $300M (vs $331M); for operations Q1 sugar volume was 175,000 metric tonnes (down ~21,000 t), sugar revenues $226M (‑15%), adjusted gross margin/ton $304 (up $79), sugar adjusted EBITDA $41M (up $7M), maple Q1 revenues $72M (+8%) with maple adjusted EBITDA $5.8M and volumes +8%; full‑year guidance targets ~750,000 tonnes of sugar sales (≈‑4% vs 2025) and 56 million pounds of maple (≈+5% y/y), capital spending of about $27M (ex‑LEAP) with $25M spent this quarter, LEAP cost to complete unchanged at $280–300M with start‑up targeted H1 2027, while distribution, production/maintenance and interest costs are expected to edge slightly higher and the quarterly dividend is maintained.Rogers Sugar Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.24B | 1.31B | 1.23B | 1.10B | 1.01B | 893.93M |
| Gross Profit | 199.73M | 192.24M | 175.87M | 165.73M | 130.81M | 139.74M |
| EBITDA | 150.40M | 137.76M | 122.88M | 119.50M | 41.02M | 108.07M |
| Net Income | 69.30M | 64.45M | 53.73M | 51.79M | -16.57M | 47.53M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.13B | 1.16B | 1.08B | 960.90M | 937.96M | 879.93M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.12M | 8.54M | 19.12M | 46.00K | 151.00K | 15.64M |
| Total Debt | 422.53M | 387.74M | 380.88M | 438.37M | 397.79M | 365.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 651.96M | 704.39M | 656.33M | 654.00M | 646.54M | 560.97M |
| Stockholders Equity | 477.43M | 458.45M | 422.41M | 306.90M | 291.42M | 318.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 85.82M | 32.75M | 13.71M | 8.92M | -2.18M | 53.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 186.64M | 121.44M | 79.79M | 44.32M | 21.55M | 78.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -100.82M | -88.69M | -66.08M | -35.40M | -23.73M | -24.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -73.83M | -43.36M | 5.36M | -8.89M | -13.55M | -40.16M |
Rogers Sugar Technical Analysis
Positive
6.41
Price Trends
6.57
Positive
6.41
Positive
6.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
61.41
Neutral
64.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:RSI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.59, below the 50-day MA of 6.57, and above the 200-day MA of 6.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:RSI.
Rogers Sugar Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$861.61M | 16.96 | 14.94% | 5.99% | -3.84% | 11.07% | |
69 Neutral | C$1.51B | 10.56 | 14.44% | 2.00% | 6.14% | 41.03% | |
67 Neutral | C$3.66B | 20.25 | 36.56% | 4.95% | -13.45% | 465.50% | |
66 Neutral | C$2.47B | 16.67 | 17.82% | 3.27% | 0.85% | 1.61% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
55 Neutral | C$406.93M | 9.90 | 7.08% | 4.83% | 14.02% | -47.59% | |
43 Neutral | C$4.71B | 364.63 | 2.21% | 3.34% | 17.36% | -65.87% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TSE:RSI
Rogers Sugar
6.72
1.44
27.30%
TSE:HLF
High Liner Foods
14.38
-2.85
-16.55%
TSE:MFI
Maple Leaf Foods
29.37
6.63
29.14%
TSE:NWC
North West
51.87
-3.25
-5.90%
TSE:PBH
Premium Brands
90.33
12.54
16.11%
TSE:LAS.A
Lassonde
220.98
7.92
3.72%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.