Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSE:MFI)
TSX:MFI
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Maple Leaf Foods
(TSX:MFI)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
C$32.00
▲(6.88% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/07/26
The score is driven mainly by a solid but still-risky financial turnaround (improving profitability, cash flow, and leverage, but with volatility and only moderate cash conversion). Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend, valuation is very attractive (low P/E and strong yield), and management’s 2026 guidance is constructive despite input-cost and pricing-volume risks.
Positive Factors
Margin expansion and improved profitability
Sharp margin expansion in 2025 reflects improved pricing, mix and operating leverage across the business. Sustained higher gross and net margins materially boost cash generation capacity, support reinvestment and shareholder returns, and increase resilience to future input‑cost shocks over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Historic revenue volatility and past declines
A material revenue drop in 2025 and prior losses in 2022–2023 highlight cyclicality and execution sensitivity. Such top‑line volatility undermines margin durability and forecasting confidence, making sustained EBITDA and cash‑flow improvement contingent on continued successful price, volume and mix recovery.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin expansion and improved profitability
Sharp margin expansion in 2025 reflects improved pricing, mix and operating leverage across the business. Sustained higher gross and net margins materially boost cash generation capacity, support reinvestment and shareholder returns, and increase resilience to future input‑cost shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Maple Leaf Foods (MFI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$3.73B
Dividend Yield4.95%
Average Volume (3M)292.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth-0.03%
EPS Growth497.79%
CountryCA
Employees13,500
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.32
Shares Outstanding124,642,410
10 Day Avg. Volume355,361
30 Day Avg. Volume292,199
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio9.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$35.00Price Target Upside16.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$4.12B
Maple Leaf Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. produces food products in the United States, Canada, Japan, China, and internationally. It produces various food products, including prepared meats, ready-to-cook and ready-to-serve meals, snacks kits, fresh pork and poultry,...
How the Company Makes Money
Maple Leaf Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its meat and poultry products, which include fresh and frozen meats, ready-to-eat meals, and deli items. The company employs a multi-faceted revenue model that includes retail sales ...
Maple Leaf Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong execution and structural progress: double-digit Poultry growth, branded volume gains, significant adjusted EBITDA and margin expansion, substantial debt reduction and robust free cash flow supported shareholder returns and a confident 2026 outlook. Headwinds include persistent input-cost inflation in Prepared Foods, a plant-protein impairment and uncertainty over near-term consumer reaction to recent price increases. On balance, the positive operational and financial momentum, completed portfolio transformation and clear targets for 2026 outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Revenue Growth
Sales of $991 million in Q4, up 8.1% year-over-year, with Poultry +13.1% and Prepared Foods +6.1% driving the outperformance.
Negative Updates
Input Cost Inflation Pressure in Prepared Foods
Prepared Foods faced elevated input cost inflation through year-end; pricing actions have not yet fully recovered the inflation experienced, prompting a pass-through price increase implemented in mid–late February 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q4 Revenue Growth
Sales of $991 million in Q4, up 8.1% year-over-year, with Poultry +13.1% and Prepared Foods +6.1% driving the outperformance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Maple Leaf guided to mid‑single‑digit revenue growth in 2026 (from 2025), adjusted EBITDA of about $520–$540 million, and to maintain leverage below 3x (backed by strong free cash flow), with planned capital expenditures of roughly $160–$180 million and ~10% annual dividend growth (quarterly dividend raised from $0.19 to $0.21); management also intends to file to renew the NCIB in Q1 2026 and pursue a balanced capital‑allocation approach including buybacks and dividends. For context, management noted 2025 results of $3.91 billion in sales, $476 million adjusted EBITDA (12.2% margin; +140 bps), $318 million free cash flow, net debt of $995 million (net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA 2.1x), a $0.60 special dividend (~$75 million) and ~700,000 shares repurchased.Maple Leaf Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.91B | 4.90B | 4.87B | 4.74B | 4.52B |
| Gross Profit | 666.17M | 780.01M | 451.37M | 424.14M | 659.08M |
| EBITDA | 503.71M | 561.19M | 273.48M | -13.66M | 373.43M |
| Net Income | 541.63M | 96.60M | -124.98M | -311.89M | 102.82M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.54B | 4.43B | 4.60B | 4.44B | 4.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 143.41M | 175.91M | 203.36M | 91.08M | 162.03M |
| Total Debt | 1.23B | 1.88B | 2.13B | 1.89B | 1.43B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.22B | 2.89B | 3.09B | 2.78B | 2.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.32B | 1.54B | 1.51B | 1.66B | 2.04B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 310.25M | 464.92M | -21.30M | -306.42M | -275.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 435.54M | 464.92M | 176.88M | 49.32M | 304.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -119.74M | -82.54M | -188.57M | -377.01M | -623.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -348.30M | -409.84M | 123.97M | 256.74M | 379.90M |
Maple Leaf Foods Technical Analysis
Positive
29.94
Price Trends
27.71
Positive
26.13
Positive
26.73
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Positive
59.95
Neutral
74.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MFI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.22, above the 50-day MA of 27.71, and above the 200-day MA of 26.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MFI.
Maple Leaf Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$3.73B | 5.72 | 11.72% | 4.95% | -0.03% | 497.79% | |
70 Outperform | C$17.73B | 19.22 | -1.32% | 1.89% | 5.37% | -135.85% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | C$406.08M | 8.64 | 8.89% | 4.83% | 6.15% | -36.76% | |
| ― | C$64.29M | -20.16 | 81.87% | ― | 30.02% | 35.29% | |
46 Neutral | C$4.31B | 112.26 | 3.82% | 3.34% | 13.05% | -33.72% | |
45 Neutral | C$200.07M | -174.75 | -92.94% | ― | 212.16% | -46.40% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TSE:MFI
Maple Leaf Foods
29.94
10.12
51.05%
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14.35
-1.40
-8.87%
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0.51
0.38
292.31%
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13.75%
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20.10
85.35%
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1.53
0.45
41.67%
Maple Leaf Foods Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Maple Leaf Foods Delivers Strong 2025 Results and Lifts 2026 Outlook
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Maple Leaf Foods reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with Q4 sales up 8.1% to $991 million and adjusted EBITDA up 8.3% to $117 million, while full-year sales rose 7.7% to $3.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA jumped 21% to $476 m...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Maple Leaf Foods Sets 2026 Guidance, Lifts Dividend as It Targets Sustained Growth
Positive
Jan 13, 2026
Maple Leaf Foods has issued its financial guidance for 2026, projecting mid-single digit revenue growth over 2025 and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $520–$540 million, supported by margin improvements, operational discipline, and its Fuel f...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Maple Leaf Foods Declares Special Dividend Amid Strong Performance
Positive
Dec 8, 2025
Maple Leaf Foods announced a special cash dividend of $0.60 per share, totaling approximately $75 million, reflecting strong operational performance and disciplined capital management. This move signifies a shift to a balanced capital allocation s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.