Maple Leaf Foods Inc (TSE:MFI)
TSX:MFI
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Maple Leaf Foods
(TSX:MFI)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$32.00
▲(7.82% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improved profitability and free cash flow versus prior-year losses, alongside better leverage metrics, but tempered by weak recent revenue trend in the financial statements and a mostly neutral technical setup. Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield, and the latest earnings call adds a positive tilt due to reaffirmed guidance and solid Q1 execution, partially offset by Prepared Foods volume pressure and inflation/input-cost risks.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow strength
Consistent, growing free cash flow (TTM FCF growth ~13% and FCF covers ~79% of net income) provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. This reduces reliance on external financing, supports capital allocation discipline and improves resilience through cycles.
Negative Factors
Top‑line weakness
Trailing revenue decline (~-6% TTM) shows the recovery has been driven more by margins than sustainable top‑line growth. Persistent revenue weakness increases sensitivity to cost shocks and makes long‑term targets harder to achieve without consistent volume or new growth channels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow strength
Consistent, growing free cash flow (TTM FCF growth ~13% and FCF covers ~79% of net income) provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. This reduces reliance on external financing, supports capital allocation discipline and improves resilience through cycles.
Read all positive factors
Maple Leaf Foods (MFI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$3.49B
Dividend Yield4.95%
Average Volume (3M)292.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.3
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth-13.45%
EPS Growth465.50%
CountryCA
Employees13,500
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.33
Shares Outstanding124,613,880
10 Day Avg. Volume355,361
30 Day Avg. Volume292,199
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio9.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$37.29Price Target Upside25.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.6
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$4.12B
Maple Leaf Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Maple Leaf Foods Inc. produces food products in the United States, Canada, Japan, China, and internationally. It produces various food products, including prepared meats, ready-to-cook and ready-to-serve meals, snacks kits, fresh pork and poultry,...
How the Company Makes Money
Maple Leaf Foods makes money by manufacturing and selling food products—primarily packaged meats and prepared meat items—under company brands and through various customer programs. Revenue is generated when MFI sells finished products to (1) retai...
Maple Leaf Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial update: solid top-line growth (6.2% YoY), robust poultry performance (11.7% growth), adjusted EBITDA growth (5.7%) and meaningful free cash flow and leverage improvements, while management reaffirmed 2026 guidance and articulated clear 2030 ambitions. Offsetting risks include modest Prepared Foods volume softness following pricing, YoY margin comparability headwinds from prior-year nonrecurring items, and externally driven inflation/transportation and input-cost risks (fuel, feed, packaging) that may introduce quarter-to-quarter variability (notably in Q3). Overall, highlights materially outweigh the identified near-term lowlights.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Sales in Q1 were $963 million, up 6.2% year-over-year, driven by resilient growth platforms and strong retail and foodservice performance.
Negative Updates
Prepared Foods Volume Pressure
Prepared Foods sales rose only 2.3% YoY and experienced a small volume decline (1–2%) driven by timing of promotional activity and post-price-adjustment consumer response; U.S. sales were also negatively affected by unfavorable foreign exchange translation.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Sales in Q1 were $963 million, up 6.2% year-over-year, driven by resilient growth platforms and strong retail and foodservice performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reaffirmed its 2026 outlook: mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $520–$540 million, with full‑year capital investments of ~$160–$180 million and a commitment to maintain investment‑grade leverage below 3.0x net debt/adjusted EBITDA; longer‑term 2030 ambitions remain ≈$5.0 billion revenue, ≈$750 million adjusted EBITDA and cumulative free cash flow of ≈$1.7–$1.8 billion while keeping leverage under 3x. In Q1 the business delivered sales of $963 million (+6.2% y/y; poultry +11.7%, Prepared Foods +2.3%), adjusted EBITDA of $122.4 million (+5.7% y/y) and a 12.7% adjusted EBITDA margin (up 90 bps sequential), SG&A of $101.9 million (SG&A/sales improved 80 bps), earnings from continuing operations of $46.1 million ($0.37 basic EPS vs $16.0 million/$0.13 prior), capex of $21.3 million (Q1) and free cash flow of $36.6 million (+$50.2 million y/y); balance sheet metrics include net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA of 2.1x (down from 2.6x) and Q1 capital returned to shareholders of $36 million (dividend +10.5% year‑over‑year and ~0.3 million shares repurchased under the NCIB).Maple Leaf Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.33B | 3.91B | 4.90B | 4.87B | 4.74B | 4.52B |
| Gross Profit | 737.27M | 666.17M | 780.01M | 451.37M | 424.14M | 659.08M |
| EBITDA | 468.67M | 503.71M | 561.19M | 273.48M | -13.66M | 373.43M |
| Net Income | 538.14M | 541.63M | 96.60M | -124.98M | -311.89M | 102.82M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.57B | 3.54B | 4.43B | 4.60B | 4.44B | 4.39B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 136.05M | 143.41M | 175.91M | 203.36M | 91.08M | 162.03M |
| Total Debt | 1.23B | 1.23B | 1.88B | 2.13B | 1.89B | 1.43B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.23B | 2.22B | 2.89B | 3.09B | 2.78B | 2.35B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.35B | 1.32B | 1.54B | 1.51B | 1.66B | 2.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 380.19M | 310.25M | 464.92M | -21.30M | -306.42M | -275.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 480.93M | 435.54M | 464.92M | 176.88M | 49.32M | 304.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -127.97M | -119.74M | -82.54M | -188.57M | -377.01M | -623.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -335.96M | -348.30M | -409.84M | 123.97M | 256.74M | 379.90M |
Maple Leaf Foods Technical Analysis
Negative
29.68
Price Trends
29.32
Negative
27.69
Positive
27.42
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.36
Positive
43.12
Neutral
5.12
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MFI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.68 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.06, above the 50-day MA of 29.32, and above the 200-day MA of 27.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.12 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MFI.
Maple Leaf Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$15.98B | 19.22 | 9.50% | 1.89% | 0.74% | ― | |
67 Neutral | C$3.49B | 20.25 | 36.56% | 4.95% | -13.45% | 465.50% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
55 Neutral | C$397.02M | 9.90 | 7.08% | 4.83% | 14.02% | -47.59% | |
| ― | C$59.24M | -18.58 | 81.87% | ― | ― | ― | |
44 Neutral | C$189.61M | -11.48 | -92.94% | ― | 119.70% | -368.06% | |
43 Neutral | C$4.52B | 364.63 | 2.21% | 3.34% | 17.36% | -65.87% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
TSE:MFI
Maple Leaf Foods
28.00
5.47
24.26%
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Maple Leaf Foods Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Maple Leaf Foods Sets Hybrid 2026 AGM and Expands Digital Access to Meeting Materials
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
Maple Leaf Foods has filed its 2026 Notice of Annual Meeting of Shareholders and Management Information Circular, setting its hybrid annual meeting for May 7, 2026, with both in-person attendance in Mississauga and virtual participation via live w...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Maple Leaf Foods Sets Ambitious 2030 Growth and Profitability Targets
Positive
Mar 10, 2026
Maple Leaf Foods has unveiled 2030 financial targets that aim to grow revenue to about $5 billion, deliver roughly $750 million in adjusted EBITDA, and generate $1.7–$1.8 billion in cumulative free cash flow from 2026 to 2030, while maintain...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Maple Leaf Foods Delivers Strong 2025 Results and Lifts 2026 Outlook
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Maple Leaf Foods reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with Q4 sales up 8.1% to $991 million and adjusted EBITDA up 8.3% to $117 million, while full-year sales rose 7.7% to $3.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA jumped 21% to $476 m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.