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Lundin Mining (TSE:LUN)
TSX:LUN

Lundin Mining (LUN) AI Stock Analysis

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Lundin Mining

(TSX:LUN)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$16.00
▲(6.24%Upside)
Lundin Mining's overall score is driven by strong technical analysis and positive corporate events, indicating a promising outlook despite current profitability challenges. The company's strategic actions, such as asset sales and shareholder distribution policies, bolster financial health and long-term value.
Positive Factors
Growth Potential
Lundin Mining offers investors copper growth exposure from the top tier Vicuna project in Argentina.
Market Positioning
Lundin Mining's transition to a pure-play copper miner positions it as a stronger vehicle for copper price leverage, with 90%-95% of revenue now from copper.
Valuation
Lundin Mining Corp is considered undervalued, with Vicuna news flow offering valuation upside as the market begins to fully value the company’s future growth.
Negative Factors
Capital Expenditure Concerns
Market concerns over capex present a buying opportunity at a time of strong cash generation from existing assets.
Production Guidance
Lundin lowered 2025 production guidance with expectations for Candelaria and Caserones both being trimmed.
Recent Production Performance
Lundin's 4Q copper production was modestly below the estimate but was within the guidance range.

Lundin Mining (LUN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLundin Mining Corporation is a multinational metals mining company with operations and projects across the Americas and Europe. The company primarily focuses on the extraction, production, and marketing of base metals, including copper, zinc, nickel, and lead. Lundin Mining is committed to sustainable and responsible mining practices, aiming to create value for shareholders while ensuring environmental stewardship and community engagement.
How the Company Makes MoneyLundin Mining generates revenue primarily through the extraction, production, and sale of base metals such as copper, zinc, nickel, and lead from its various mining operations. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of these metals to industrial and commercial customers worldwide. The prices of these metals in global markets significantly influence Lundin Mining's revenue, as they are commodities subject to price fluctuations based on supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, Lundin Mining may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its mining capabilities, expand its resource base, or gain access to new markets, contributing to its earnings. The company also invests in exploration activities to discover new mineral resources, ensuring long-term sustainability and growth of its operations.

Lundin Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 27.45%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Lundin Mining's first quarter of 2025 showed strong operational performance and significant positive strategic moves, including successful asset sales and promising project developments. Despite an increase in production costs and a negative impact on working capital, the company's robust financial health and strategic initiatives suggest a positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Performance
Lundin Mining reported copper production of 76,774 tons and gold production of 31,849 ounces, keeping on track to meet annual guidance. The company achieved almost $1 billion in revenue, $388 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $337 million in adjusted operating cash flow.
Successful Asset Sale and Debt Reduction
The company completed the sale of European assets for $1.4 billion, using proceeds to pay off and cancel $1.15 billion in term loans and reduce debt on the revolving credit facility, significantly strengthening the balance sheet.
Promising Exploration and Project Developments
Entered an agreement with Talon Metals to acquire the Boulderdash project adjacent to Eagle Mine, providing a low-risk opportunity to extend mine life. Also, announced a large initial mineral resource estimate for the Vicuña project, highlighting its potential as one of the largest undeveloped copper, gold, and silver resources.
New Shareholder Distribution Policy
Introduced a policy committing to an annual return of approximately $220 million to shareholders, maintaining a set amount through increased share buybacks and adjusted dividends.
Negative Updates
Higher Production Costs
Production costs from continuing operations totaled $517 million, slightly higher than previous quarters, due to factors such as deferred shipments and increased costs at Eagle.
Negative Working Capital Impact
Experienced a $215 million build in working capital during the first quarter, impacting free cash flow which amounted to only $22 million from continuing operations.
Company Guidance
During the Lundin Mining First Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company provided a comprehensive overview of their recent performance and strategic initiatives. Key metrics revealed quarterly copper production at 76,774 tons and gold production at 31,849 ounces, aligning with their annual guidance of 303,000 to 330,000 tonnes of copper and 135,000 to 150,000 ounces of gold. The company reported nearly $1 billion in revenue, with $388 million in adjusted EBITDA and $337 million in adjusted operating cash flow. The consolidated cash cost was $2.07 per pound of copper, falling within their annual guidance of $2.05 to $2.30 per pound. Strategic moves included the sale of European assets for $1.4 billion, reducing net debt to $262 million as of May 2, 2025. Additionally, Lundin Mining announced a new shareholder distribution policy, targeting annual returns of approximately $220 million. The company also made progress on the Vicuna project, which was highlighted as a significant copper, gold, and silver resource, alongside a joint acquisition of Filo Corp. Efforts to strengthen the balance sheet and execute strategic growth opportunities underscore Lundin Mining's focus on maintaining financial health and delivering long-term shareholder value.

Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lundin Mining exhibits strong operational efficiency and cash flow management despite facing profitability challenges. While the income statement shows stable revenues, net income struggles with a negative net profit margin. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, though returns on equity are negative. Cash flow metrics indicate strong operational cash generation.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Lundin Mining has shown moderate revenue growth with a 0.79% increase in the TTM compared to the previous annual period. The gross profit margin stands at 30.92% for the TTM, reflecting a solid ability to maintain profitability despite a volatile market. However, the company faces challenges with net profitability, as indicated by a negative net profit margin of -2.70% in the TTM. The EBIT margin is healthy at 27.30%, showcasing operational efficiency. The EBITDA margin is even stronger at 34.74%, indicating robust cash generation from operations.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet indicates a stable equity position with an equity ratio of 46.37% in the TTM, suggesting a balanced approach to financing assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.40, reflecting conservative leverage levels. However, the return on equity has been negative at -1.76% in the TTM, primarily due to net losses, which could indicate challenges in generating returns for shareholders.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Lundin Mining exhibits a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 15.34 in the TTM, highlighting excellent cash conversion from earnings, despite the net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also robust at -7.70, emphasizing effective cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate is modest at 0.76%, indicating stable cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.45B3.42B2.74B3.04B3.33B2.04B
Gross Profit1.07B942.86M601.53M762.57M1.37B498.12M
EBITDA1.20B1.12B1.05B1.16B1.78B801.27M
Net Income-93.07M-203.53M241.56M426.85M780.35M168.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.38B10.41B10.86B8.17B7.64B7.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments341.63M407.58M268.79M191.39M594.07M141.45M
Total Debt2.10B2.01B1.76B197.33M31.00M203.05M
Total Liabilities4.96B4.89B4.44B2.75B2.64B2.56B
Stockholders Equity5.28B4.42B4.96B4.86B4.45B3.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow716.93M711.55M159.47M33.99M952.86M134.65M
Operating Cash Flow1.43B1.52B1.02B876.89M1.48B565.89M
Investing Cash Flow-886.58M-1.01B-1.67B-1.01B-520.01M-420.98M
Financing Cash Flow-483.85M-344.23M728.59M-251.63M-496.64M-236.93M

Lundin Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price15.06
Price Trends
50DMA
13.04
Positive
100DMA
12.38
Positive
200DMA
12.75
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.40
Negative
RSI
67.96
Neutral
STOCH
71.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.14, above the 50-day MA of 13.04, and above the 200-day MA of 12.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUN.

Lundin Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (43)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSHBM
76
Outperform
$5.71B26.246.50%0.14%10.69%79.56%
TSLUN
75
Outperform
$12.26B25.632.66%2.30%-8.36%-200.42%
TSFM
67
Neutral
$20.18B110.091.22%-13.79%
TSERO
64
Neutral
$2.38B81.112.54%16.82%-67.73%
TSTKO
62
Neutral
$1.36B11.15-12.40%7.36%-159.52%
TSCS
60
Neutral
$6.37B60.332.71%37.30%
43
Neutral
AU$1.37B-6.17-40.62%4.19%-4.78%-42.91%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
15.06
-0.55
-3.53%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
14.88
1.66
12.52%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
23.71
-7.54
-24.13%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
8.88
-1.55
-14.86%
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
4.57
1.00
28.01%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
25.09
6.11
32.19%

Lundin Mining Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lundin Mining Unveils Major Resource Estimate at Filo del Sol
Positive
May 5, 2025

Lundin Mining has announced a significant milestone with the initial Mineral Resource estimate for the Filo del Sol sulphide deposit, highlighting its potential as one of the largest copper, gold, and silver resources globally. This discovery, part of the Vicuña district, positions the company to develop a world-class mining complex, with substantial high-grade mineralization and expansion potential, enhancing its market positioning and long-term value for stakeholders.

Stock Buyback
Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital and Buyback Progress
Neutral
Apr 30, 2025

Lundin Mining has announced an update on its share capital and buyback program. The company reduced its outstanding shares by 3,938,263 to 856,642,093 due to share buybacks under its normal course issuer bid, which aims to allocate up to US$150 million annually. So far in 2025, Lundin Mining has acquired 11,729,000 shares at a cost of approximately US$96 million, reflecting its commitment to shareholder distribution.

Financial Disclosures
Lundin Mining Pre-Announces Q1 2025 Financial Adjustments
Neutral
Apr 17, 2025

Lundin Mining has pre-announced certain items affecting its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a positive impact on revenue due to provisional pricing adjustments, particularly in copper and gold sales, while facing challenges from foreign exchange derivative losses. The company anticipates both realized and unrealized foreign exchange losses, alongside a notable unrealized gain from derivative contracts, reflecting currency fluctuations against the US dollar. These financial adjustments are expected to influence the company’s earnings but not its adjusted EBITDA or adjusted earnings per share.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lundin Mining Sells Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan to Boliden for $1.40 Billion
Positive
Apr 16, 2025

Lundin Mining has completed the sale of its Neves-Corvo operation in Portugal and Zinkgruvan operation in Sweden to Boliden AB for $1.40 billion, with potential future payments of up to $150 million. This transaction allows Lundin Mining to focus on its growth strategy in the Vicuña District, enhancing its financial flexibility and strengthening its balance sheet, positioning the company for long-term shareholder value.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
Lundin Mining Schedules 2025 Annual Meeting and Q1 Results Call
Neutral
Apr 10, 2025

Lundin Mining has announced the details for its upcoming Annual Meeting of Shareholders, scheduled for May 8, 2025, which will be held in a hybrid format allowing both in-person and virtual attendance. The company will also release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 7, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast on May 8, 2025, to discuss the results, highlighting its commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 05, 2025