Lundin Mining (LUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$11.96B
• Dividend Yield: 0.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.35M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.96
• Revenue Growth: -8.36%
• EPS Growth: -200.42%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 6,195
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 855,818,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,075,157
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,348,579
• PEG Ratio: -1.89
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 41.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.49
• 1Y Price Target: C$16.20
• Price Target Upside: 15.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$16.00 ▲(14.45%Upside)

Lundin Mining's overall score is driven by strong technical analysis and positive corporate events, indicating a promising outlook despite current profitability challenges. The company's strategic actions, such as asset sales and shareholder distribution policies, bolster financial health and long-term value.

Positive Factors

Copper Growth Exposure

Lundin Mining offers investors copper growth exposure from the top tier Vicuna project in Argentina.

Financial Performance

The company's value is underpinned by a stable of steady cash flowing South American copper assets.

Valuation

Lundin Mining is considered undervalued, with Vicuna news flow offering valuation upside as the market begins to fully value the company’s future growth.

Negative Factors

Market Concerns

Market concerns over capex present a buying opportunity at a time of strong cash generation from existing assets.

Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. It primarily produces copper, zinc, nickel, and gold, as well as lead, silver, and other metals. The company holds 100% interests in the Chapada mine located in Brazil; the Neves-Corvo mine located in Portugal; the Eagle mine located in the United States; and the Zinkgruvan mine located in Sweden. It also holds 80% interests in the Candelaria and Ojos del Salado mining complex located in Chile. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004. Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Lundin Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of the metals it extracts and processes, including copper, zinc, and nickel. The company operates several mines that produce these base metals, and it sells the extracted materials to industrial customers, manufacturers, and commodity traders around the world. A significant portion of Lundin Mining's revenue is derived from long-term contracts with major customers who require a steady supply of these metals for their manufacturing and production needs. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Additionally, fluctuations in global metal prices and demand can significantly impact Lundin Mining's earnings, as these factors influence the profitability of its mining operations.

Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lundin Mining exhibits strong operational efficiency and cash flow management despite facing profitability challenges. While the income statement shows stable revenues, net income struggles with a negative net profit margin. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, though returns on equity are negative. Cash flow metrics indicate strong operational cash generation.

Income Statement

Lundin Mining has shown moderate revenue growth with a 0.79% increase in the TTM compared to the previous annual period. The gross profit margin stands at 30.92% for the TTM, reflecting a solid ability to maintain profitability despite a volatile market. However, the company faces challenges with net profitability, as indicated by a negative net profit margin of -2.70% in the TTM. The EBIT margin is healthy at 27.30%, showcasing operational efficiency. The EBITDA margin is even stronger at 34.74%, indicating robust cash generation from operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a stable equity position with an equity ratio of 46.37% in the TTM, suggesting a balanced approach to financing assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.40, reflecting conservative leverage levels. However, the return on equity has been negative at -1.76% in the TTM, primarily due to net losses, which could indicate challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Lundin Mining exhibits a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 15.34 in the TTM, highlighting excellent cash conversion from earnings, despite the net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also robust at -7.70, emphasizing effective cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate is modest at 0.76%, indicating stable cash flow management.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.42B	2.74B	3.04B	3.33B	2.04B
Gross Profit	942.86M	601.53M	762.57M	1.37B	498.12M
EBITDA	1.12B	1.05B	1.16B	1.78B	801.27M
Net Income	-203.53M	241.56M	426.85M	780.35M	168.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.41B	10.86B	8.17B	7.64B	7.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	407.58M	268.79M	191.39M	594.07M	141.45M
Total Debt	2.01B	1.76B	197.33M	31.00M	203.05M
Total Liabilities	4.89B	4.44B	2.75B	2.64B	2.56B
Stockholders Equity	4.42B	4.96B	4.86B	4.45B	3.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	711.55M	159.47M	33.99M	952.86M	134.65M
Operating Cash Flow	1.52B	1.02B	876.89M	1.48B	565.89M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.01B	-1.67B	-1.01B	-520.01M	-420.98M
Financing Cash Flow	-344.23M	728.59M	-251.63M	-496.64M	-236.93M

Lundin Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.22, above the 50-day MA of 13.79, and above the 200-day MA of 12.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUN.

Lundin Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HBM	76 Outperform	$5.55B	25.49	6.50%	0.01%	10.69%	79.56%
LUN	75 Outperform	C$11.96B	25.63	2.66%	0.16%	-8.36%	-200.42%
CS	64 Neutral	$6.21B	55.37	2.71%	―	37.30%	―
FM	64 Neutral	$20.30B	106.80	1.79%	―	-7.46%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.49B	9.49	1.49%	2.70%	2.28%	-33.88%
TKO	61 Neutral	$1.48B	11.15	-12.40%	―	7.36%	-159.52%
ERO	58 Neutral	C$2.05B	69.93	2.54%	―	16.82%	-67.73%

Lundin Mining Corporate Events

Lundin Mining Unveils Major Resource Estimate at Filo del Sol

Lundin Mining has announced a significant milestone with the initial Mineral Resource estimate for the Filo del Sol sulphide deposit, highlighting its potential as one of the largest copper, gold, and silver resources globally. This discovery, part of the Vicuña district, positions the company to develop a world-class mining complex, with substantial high-grade mineralization and expansion potential, enhancing its market positioning and long-term value for stakeholders.

Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital and Buyback Progress

Lundin Mining has announced an update on its share capital and buyback program. The company reduced its outstanding shares by 3,938,263 to 856,642,093 due to share buybacks under its normal course issuer bid, which aims to allocate up to US$150 million annually. So far in 2025, Lundin Mining has acquired 11,729,000 shares at a cost of approximately US$96 million, reflecting its commitment to shareholder distribution.