Lundin Mining (LUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$28.21B
• Dividend Yield: 0.68%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 685.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.99
• Revenue Growth: -19.68%
• EPS Growth: -90.05%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 6,195
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 854,347,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,720,182
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,456,004
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.95
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.50
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$30.51
• Price Target Upside: -7.61% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$41.00 ▲(24.17% Upside)

The score is driven by solid financial performance and strong technical momentum, reinforced by a constructive earnings call with higher production guidance and improved cost guidance. The main offset is valuation risk from the extremely high P/E and only modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

A very low debt-to-equity ratio and strong equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing and solvency risk through commodity cycles, supports capital allocation to projects/dividends, and preserves capacity to fund growth without overleveraging.

Robust cash generation

High free cash flow growth and strong cash conversion indicate earnings are being converted into real cash. Sustainable cash generation underpins reinvestment, dividends and buybacks, funds project development, and cushions the business against cyclical commodity downturns.

Improving copper production and unit costs

Higher guided copper volumes alongside materially lower unit cash costs enhances operating leverage. Durable improvements in output and cost structure support stronger EBITDA margins and fund long-term project economics, increasing competitiveness in copper markets.

Negative Factors

Weak bottom-line returns

Despite solid gross and EBIT margins, the very low net margin and negligible ROE signal weak retained earnings conversion and limited shareholder returns. Persistent non-operating costs, taxes or one-offs can erode sustained profitability and hinder capital efficiency.

Cost volatility at flagship mine

Escalating and reclassified costs at a major asset raise the risk that unit costs will be uneven over time. Cost volatility at a flagship mine can materially reduce free cash flow and project IRRs, complicating long-term planning and capital allocation decisions.

Logistics and inventory exposure

Significant shipment delays and elevated inventory tie up working capital and expose the company to logistical and port risks. Recurring transport disruptions can inflate costs, disrupt customer supply, and weaken cash flow resilience over multi-month periods.

Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. It primarily produces copper, zinc, nickel, and gold, as well as lead, silver, and other metals. The company holds 100% interests in the Chapada mine located in Brazil; the Neves-Corvo mine located in Portugal; the Eagle mine located in the United States; and the Zinkgruvan mine located in Sweden. It also holds 80% interests in the Candelaria and Ojos del Salado mining complex located in Chile. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004. Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Lundin Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of base metals, including copper, zinc, and nickel, as well as precious metals like gold. The company's revenue model is largely driven by the volume of metal produced at its mines, which is influenced by operational efficiency and market demand. Key revenue streams include the sale of concentrate and refined metals to various customers, including smelters and metal traders. Additionally, Lundin Mining benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market access. Fluctuations in global commodity prices, production costs, and regulatory environments also play a significant role in the company's earnings.

Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating profile with 6.99% TTM revenue growth, solid margins (40.31% gross, 27.82% EBIT), and robust cash generation (42.13% TTM free cash flow growth). Offsetting factors are weak profitability metrics (3.53% net margin and 0.27% ROE), which limit the score.

Income Statement

Lundin Mining's income statement shows a strong revenue growth rate of 6.99% TTM, indicating positive momentum. The gross profit margin of 40.31% and EBIT margin of 27.82% TTM reflect solid operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.53% TTM, suggesting room for improvement in cost management or other expenses.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is stable with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 TTM, indicating conservative leverage. The equity ratio stands at 58.92%, showing a strong equity base. However, the return on equity is modest at 0.27% TTM, suggesting limited profitability relative to equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a robust free cash flow growth rate of 42.13% TTM, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.93 TTM indicates efficient cash conversion, while the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.55 TTM suggests healthy cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.51B	3.42B	2.74B	3.04B	3.33B	2.04B
Gross Profit	1.45B	1.51B	1.10B	1.32B	1.89B	945.60M
EBITDA	1.34B	1.15B	828.28M	974.80M	1.64B	691.31M
Net Income	73.52M	-203.53M	241.56M	426.85M	780.35M	168.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.01B	10.40B	10.78B	8.25B	7.57B	7.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	289.61M	407.34M	266.86M	193.26M	588.48M	141.16M
Total Debt	626.10M	2.00B	1.48B	199.26M	30.71M	202.64M
Total Liabilities	3.00B	4.89B	4.41B	2.77B	2.62B	2.56B
Stockholders Equity	5.89B	4.42B	4.93B	4.91B	4.40B	3.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	742.24M	579.24M	114.49M	40.96M	961.85M	146.30M
Operating Cash Flow	1.31B	1.35B	985.52M	858.78M	1.49B	599.40M
Investing Cash Flow	633.53M	-973.92M	-1.71B	-1.00B	-543.45M	-459.03M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.96B	-214.19M	798.47M	-234.66M	-481.13M	-237.06M

Lundin Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 33.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 33.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.64, above the 50-day MA of 30.57, and above the 200-day MA of 20.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:LUN.

Lundin Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CS	73 Outperform	C$12.05B	26.50	9.83%	―	44.69%	1216.12%
FM	73 Outperform	$31.34B	460.88	0.41%	―	8.17%	―
LUN	72 Outperform	C$28.21B	685.06	3.33%	0.68%	-19.68%	-90.05%
HBM	70 Outperform	C$13.85B	21.50	16.43%	0.07%	5.40%	413.48%
ERO	69 Neutral	C$5.02B	25.74	17.26%	―	29.97%	658.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKO	54 Neutral	C$4.12B	-57.62	-10.53%	―	1.17%	-169.37%

Lundin Mining Corporate Events

Lundin Mining Cuts Share Count After Completing US$150 Million 2025 Buyback

Lundin Mining has updated its share capital to reflect the completion of its 2025 normal course issuer bid, reporting 854,347,591 common shares outstanding with voting rights as of December 31 after a net reduction of 1,399,950 shares. Over the year, the company repurchased 15,088,180 shares at a cost of about US$150 million, meeting its targeted annual allocation for buybacks as part of a capital-return strategy that balances dividends and repurchases, underscoring management’s emphasis on shareholder returns and disciplined balance sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LUN) stock is a Buy with a C$32.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lundin Mining stock, see the TSE:LUN Stock Forecast page.