Lundin Mining (LUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.90B
• Dividend Yield: 0.77%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.84
• Revenue Growth: -8.36%
• EPS Growth: -200.42%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 6,195
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 68
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 856,642,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,847,700
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,493,501
• PEG Ratio: -0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 133.35
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.37
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.82
• 1Y Price Target: $15.03
• Price Target Upside: 7.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$16.00 ▲(14.20%Upside)

Lundin Mining's overall score is driven by strong technical analysis and positive corporate events, indicating a promising outlook despite current profitability challenges. The company's strategic actions, such as asset sales and shareholder distribution policies, bolster financial health and long-term value.

Positive Factors

Growth Potential

Lundin Mining Corp is set for a major growth phase, with its asset base supporting dividends and excess capital driving expansion.

Valuation

Lundin Mining Corp is considered undervalued, with Vicuna news flow offering valuation upside as the market begins to fully value the company’s future growth.

Negative Factors

4Q Production Performance

Lundin's 4Q copper production was modestly below the estimate but was within the guidance range.

Production Guidance

Lundin lowered 2025 production guidance with expectations for Candelaria and Caserones both being trimmed.

Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. It primarily produces copper, zinc, nickel, and gold, as well as lead, silver, and other metals. The company holds 100% interests in the Chapada mine located in Brazil; the Neves-Corvo mine located in Portugal; the Eagle mine located in the United States; and the Zinkgruvan mine located in Sweden. It also holds 80% interests in the Candelaria and Ojos del Salado mining complex located in Chile. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004. Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Lundin Mining generates revenue primarily through the extraction, production, and sale of base metals such as copper, zinc, nickel, and lead from its various mining operations. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of these metals to industrial and commercial customers worldwide. The prices of these metals in global markets significantly influence Lundin Mining's revenue, as they are commodities subject to price fluctuations based on supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, Lundin Mining may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its mining capabilities, expand its resource base, or gain access to new markets, contributing to its earnings. The company also invests in exploration activities to discover new mineral resources, ensuring long-term sustainability and growth of its operations.

Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lundin Mining exhibits strong operational efficiency and cash flow management despite facing profitability challenges. While the income statement shows stable revenues, net income struggles with a negative net profit margin. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage, though returns on equity are negative. Cash flow metrics indicate strong operational cash generation.

Income Statement

Lundin Mining has shown moderate revenue growth with a 0.79% increase in the TTM compared to the previous annual period. The gross profit margin stands at 30.92% for the TTM, reflecting a solid ability to maintain profitability despite a volatile market. However, the company faces challenges with net profitability, as indicated by a negative net profit margin of -2.70% in the TTM. The EBIT margin is healthy at 27.30%, showcasing operational efficiency. The EBITDA margin is even stronger at 34.74%, indicating robust cash generation from operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a stable equity position with an equity ratio of 46.37% in the TTM, suggesting a balanced approach to financing assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.40, reflecting conservative leverage levels. However, the return on equity has been negative at -1.76% in the TTM, primarily due to net losses, which could indicate challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Lundin Mining exhibits a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 15.34 in the TTM, highlighting excellent cash conversion from earnings, despite the net losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also robust at -7.70, emphasizing effective cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate is modest at 0.76%, indicating stable cash flow management.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.45B	3.42B	2.74B	3.04B	3.33B	2.04B
	Gross Profit
1.07B	942.86M	601.53M	762.57M	1.37B	498.12M
	EBIT
941.91M	816.87M	471.06M	550.00M	1.80B	364.23M
	EBITDA
1.20B	1.12B	1.05B	1.16B	1.78B	801.27M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-93.07M	-203.53M	241.56M	426.85M	780.35M	168.80M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
341.63M	407.58M	268.79M	191.39M	594.07M	141.45M
	Total Assets
11.38B	10.41B	10.86B	8.17B	7.64B	7.06B
	Total Debt
2.10B	2.01B	1.76B	197.33M	31.00M	203.05M
	Net Debt
1.76B	1.65B	1.49B	5.94M	-563.07M	61.60M
	Total Liabilities
4.96B	4.89B	4.44B	2.75B	2.64B	2.56B
	Stockholders Equity
5.28B	4.42B	4.96B	4.86B	4.45B	3.98B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
716.93M	711.55M	159.47M	33.99M	952.86M	134.65M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.43B	1.52B	1.02B	876.89M	1.48B	565.89M
	Investing Cash Flow
-886.58M	-1.01B	-1.67B	-1.01B	-520.01M	-420.98M
	Financing Cash Flow
-483.85M	-344.23M	728.59M	-251.63M	-496.64M	-236.93M

Lundin Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.01
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.45, above the 50-day MA of 12.10, and above the 200-day MA of 12.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUN.

Lundin Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LUN	75 Outperform	$11.90B	25.63	2.66%	0.77%	-8.36%	-200.42%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$2.04B	-1.23	-21.09%	3.96%	2.90%	-30.45%
HBM		$3.80B	24.89	6.50%	0.14%	―	―
TGB		$920.10M	10.75	-12.40%	―	―	―
CSCCF		$4.41B	53.37	2.71%	―	―	―
ERO		$1.62B	82.94	2.54%	―	―	―
FQVLF		$13.02B	93.18	1.22%	―	―	―

Lundin Mining Corporate Events

Lundin Mining Unveils Major Resource Estimate at Filo del Sol

Lundin Mining has announced a significant milestone with the initial Mineral Resource estimate for the Filo del Sol sulphide deposit, highlighting its potential as one of the largest copper, gold, and silver resources globally. This discovery, part of the Vicuña district, positions the company to develop a world-class mining complex, with substantial high-grade mineralization and expansion potential, enhancing its market positioning and long-term value for stakeholders.

Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital and Buyback Progress

Lundin Mining has announced an update on its share capital and buyback program. The company reduced its outstanding shares by 3,938,263 to 856,642,093 due to share buybacks under its normal course issuer bid, which aims to allocate up to US$150 million annually. So far in 2025, Lundin Mining has acquired 11,729,000 shares at a cost of approximately US$96 million, reflecting its commitment to shareholder distribution.

Lundin Mining Pre-Announces Q1 2025 Financial Adjustments

Lundin Mining has pre-announced certain items affecting its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a positive impact on revenue due to provisional pricing adjustments, particularly in copper and gold sales, while facing challenges from foreign exchange derivative losses. The company anticipates both realized and unrealized foreign exchange losses, alongside a notable unrealized gain from derivative contracts, reflecting currency fluctuations against the US dollar. These financial adjustments are expected to influence the company’s earnings but not its adjusted EBITDA or adjusted earnings per share.

Lundin Mining Sells Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan to Boliden for $1.40 Billion

Lundin Mining has completed the sale of its Neves-Corvo operation in Portugal and Zinkgruvan operation in Sweden to Boliden AB for $1.40 billion, with potential future payments of up to $150 million. This transaction allows Lundin Mining to focus on its growth strategy in the Vicuña District, enhancing its financial flexibility and strengthening its balance sheet, positioning the company for long-term shareholder value.

Lundin Mining Schedules 2025 Annual Meeting and Q1 Results Call

Lundin Mining has announced the details for its upcoming Annual Meeting of Shareholders, scheduled for May 8, 2025, which will be held in a hybrid format allowing both in-person and virtual attendance. The company will also release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 7, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast on May 8, 2025, to discuss the results, highlighting its commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital and Buyback Progress

Lundin Mining announced a decrease in its issued and outstanding shares to 860,582,665 as of March 31, 2025, due to share buybacks under its normal course issuer bid (NCIB), offset by employee stock options and share units. The company has committed up to US$150 million annually for share buybacks, having already acquired 8,000,000 shares for approximately US$68 million in 2025, reflecting its strategic focus on shareholder value.

Lundin Mining Revises Shareholder Distribution Strategy

Lundin Mining has announced a revised shareholder distribution policy, increasing share buybacks while adjusting dividends to maintain a total annual return of approximately $220 million to shareholders. This strategic shift aims to enhance financial and operational metrics on a per-share basis, reflecting the company’s commitment to balanced shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks.