Lundin Mining (LUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $29.56B
• Dividend Yield: 0.68%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 717.8
• Beta (1Y): 2.14
• Revenue Growth: -19.68%
• EPS Growth: -90.05%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 6,195
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 854,347,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,235,902
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,387,352
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.95
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.62
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.69
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.98
• 1Y Price Target: $28.86
• Price Target Upside: -15.66% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.44
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $6.02B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$38.00 ▲(11.05% Upside)

Lundin Mining's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and bullish technical indicators. The earnings call further supports a positive outlook with record revenue and improved guidance. However, the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, which tempers the overall score.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Sustained, strong free cash flow growth and high operating cash flow conversion provide durable funding for capex, dividends and buybacks. Robust cash generation improves financial resilience through commodity cycles and supports funding of growth projects without heavy external financing.

Conservative balance sheet

Very low leverage and a strong equity base reduce refinancing risk and enhance flexibility to pursue expansions or weather price volatility. A conservative capital structure underpins long-term credit strength and capacity to fund project sanctioning with limited debt sensitivity.

Rising copper output and tightened guidance

Higher production guidance and tightened ranges reflect operational momentum and better predictability at scale. Sustainable production growth improves long-term revenue potential, operational leverage and supports project sanctioning and reinvestment decisions over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Low net profit margin

A persistently low net margin limits retained earnings and return generation for shareholders even when sales rise. Over time this constrains internal funding for expansions, reduces buffer against commodity downturns, and pressures ROE absent sustained cost or product-mix improvements.

Commodity price and cost exposure

Business economics are structurally tied to volatile commodity prices and input costs. That exposure creates durable earnings variability, complicates long-range planning and capital allocation, and means returns depend heavily on favorable price cycles rather than purely internal execution.

Operational variability

Weather-related logistics and site cost volatility highlight persistent operational risks across assets. Such disruptions and cost pressures can recur, inflating inventories, compressing margins and delaying cash realization, which undermines the predictability of medium-term free cash flow.

Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. It primarily produces copper, zinc, nickel, and gold, as well as lead, silver, and other metals. The company holds 100% interests in the Chapada mine located in Brazil; the Neves-Corvo mine located in Portugal; the Eagle mine located in the United States; and the Zinkgruvan mine located in Sweden. It also holds 80% interests in the Candelaria and Ojos del Salado mining complex located in Chile. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004. Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Lundin Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of base metals, including copper, zinc, and nickel, as well as precious metals like gold. The company's revenue model is largely driven by the volume of metal produced at its mines, which is influenced by operational efficiency and market demand. Key revenue streams include the sale of concentrate and refined metals to various customers, including smelters and metal traders. Additionally, Lundin Mining benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market access. Fluctuations in global commodity prices, production costs, and regulatory environments also play a significant role in the company's earnings.

Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lundin Mining demonstrates a stable financial position with strong equity and efficient cost management. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability are evident, as reflected in the low net profit margin and recent decline in free cash flow growth. Despite these challenges, the company maintains low leverage and a strong capital structure, providing financial stability.

Income Statement

Lundin Mining's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -4.24%, reflecting potential challenges in market demand or pricing. However, the company maintains a stable gross profit margin of 32.04% and an EBIT margin of 19.29%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is low at 0.42%, suggesting limited profitability. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth and margins, with a notable peak in 2021. Overall, the company demonstrates resilience but faces profitability challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 in the TTM period, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity is modest at 0.27%, suggesting limited returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong capital structure. Historical data indicates a consistent increase in stockholders' equity, enhancing financial resilience. However, the company should focus on improving ROE for better shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Lundin Mining's cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth at -7.84% in the TTM period, indicating potential cash generation challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.24, suggesting efficient cash conversion from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, reflecting moderate cash flow generation relative to net income. Historical data shows fluctuating free cash flow growth, with a peak in 2021. The company maintains solid cash flow management but should address the recent decline in free cash flow growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.89B	3.42B	2.74B	3.04B	3.33B	2.04B
Gross Profit	1.57B	1.51B	1.10B	1.32B	1.89B	945.60M
EBITDA	1.52B	1.15B	828.28M	974.80M	1.64B	691.31M
Net Income	137.02M	-203.53M	241.56M	426.85M	780.35M	168.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.96B	10.40B	10.78B	8.25B	7.57B	7.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	403.92M	407.34M	266.86M	193.26M	588.48M	141.16M
Total Debt	873.24M	2.00B	1.48B	199.26M	30.71M	202.64M
Total Liabilities	4.18B	4.89B	4.41B	2.77B	2.62B	2.56B
Stockholders Equity	8.22B	4.42B	4.93B	4.91B	4.40B	3.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	781.38M	579.24M	114.49M	40.96M	961.85M	146.30M
Operating Cash Flow	1.42B	1.35B	985.52M	858.78M	1.49B	599.40M
Investing Cash Flow	563.71M	-973.92M	-1.71B	-1.00B	-543.45M	-459.03M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.99B	-214.19M	798.47M	-234.66M	-481.13M	-237.06M

Lundin Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.22
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.60, above the 50-day MA of 27.52, and above the 200-day MA of 18.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.46 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.95 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUN.

Lundin Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERO	76 Outperform	C$4.42B	22.29	17.26%	―	29.97%	658.38%
CS	73 Outperform	$10.55B	24.98	9.83%	―	44.69%	1216.12%
FM	73 Outperform	C$34.49B	534.37	0.41%	―	8.17%	―
LUN	72 Outperform	$29.56B	717.84	3.33%	0.68%	-19.68%	-90.05%
HBM	70 Outperform	C$12.69B	19.70	16.43%	0.07%	5.40%	413.48%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKO	54 Neutral	C$3.65B	―	-10.53%	―	1.17%	-169.37%

Lundin Mining Corporate Events

Lundin Mining Cuts Share Count After Completing US$150 Million 2025 Buyback

Lundin Mining has updated its share capital to reflect the completion of its 2025 normal course issuer bid, reporting 854,347,591 common shares outstanding with voting rights as of December 31 after a net reduction of 1,399,950 shares. Over the year, the company repurchased 15,088,180 shares at a cost of about US$150 million, meeting its targeted annual allocation for buybacks as part of a capital-return strategy that balances dividends and repurchases, underscoring management’s emphasis on shareholder returns and disciplined balance sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LUN) stock is a Buy with a C$32.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lundin Mining stock, see the TSE:LUN Stock Forecast page.