Lundin Mining Corp (TSE:LUN)
OTHER OTC:LUN
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Lundin Mining
(OTC:LUN)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$47.00
▲(16.57% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, low leverage, and solid cash generation) and a positive earnings call featuring improved guidance and a strong growth/resource narrative. This is tempered by mixed near-term technical momentum and a mid-range valuation with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High-margin profitability
Sustained high net margins (~36% TTM) indicate durable operational efficiency across mines, aided by by-product credits and disciplined cost controls. Strong margins improve cash generation capacity and provide buffer through commodity cycles, supporting reinvestment and dividends over several years.
Negative Factors
Commodity-driven earnings volatility
Reliance on commodity prices creates persistent earnings and cash flow volatility; the company posted a net loss in 2024 despite solid operating metrics. Price swings and concentrate pricing/TC‑RC dynamics can materially alter profitability and capital plans across 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High-margin profitability
Sustained high net margins (~36% TTM) indicate durable operational efficiency across mines, aided by by-product credits and disciplined cost controls. Strong margins improve cash generation capacity and provide buffer through commodity cycles, supporting reinvestment and dividends over several years.
Read all positive factors
Lundin Mining (LUN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$33.03B
Dividend Yield0.68%
Average Volume (3M)2.79M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.0
Beta (1Y)2.38
Revenue Growth18.62%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees6,195
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.58
Shares Outstanding854,533,600
10 Day Avg. Volume3,120,312
30 Day Avg. Volume2,786,358
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.78
Price to Sales (P/S)4.83
P/FCF Ratio29.82
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$39.65Price Target Upside-1.67% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)1.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$4.67B
Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. It primarily produces copper, zinc, nickel, a...
How the Company Makes Money
Lundin Mining makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals. Its revenue model is commodity-based: it earns sales revenue when it delivers payable metal contained in products such as concentrates and/or refined metal, with realized p...
Lundin Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial year: record revenue and EBITDA, doubled copper resource base, consistent delivery to guidance, improved cathode production, robust realized prices and strengthened balance sheet with enhanced financing flexibility. The company also articulated a clear, sizable growth pipeline (Vicuña, Saíva and Chapada mill upgrade) and continued shareholder returns. Offsetting items included one-off Q4 cost charges related to union agreements, working capital build that dented near-term cash flow, timing-related shipment delays, and the execution and funding requirements for large growth projects. Overall, the breadth and magnitude of the achievements and the strengthened financing optionality materially outweigh the manageable near-term cost and timing challenges.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and EBITDA
Full-year 2025 record revenue of approximately $4.5 billion (including discontinued operations) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion from continuing operations; adjusted operating cash flow from continuing operations of over $1.6 billion for the year.
Negative Updates
One-off Q4 Cost Pressure from Union Agreements
Q4 production costs and cash costs were elevated by one-time union signing payments (Candelaria finalized five union agreements ahead of schedule), with these payments expensed in Q4 and accelerating costs otherwise expected in 2026.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and EBITDA
Full-year 2025 record revenue of approximately $4.5 billion (including discontinued operations) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 billion from continuing operations; adjusted operating cash flow from continuing operations of over $1.6 billion for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated its 3‑year guidance with consolidated copper production forecast at 310,000–335,000 tonnes in 2026 (with a ~20,000 t uplift in 2027 vs prior outlook and a net ~15,000 t increase over the two‑year period), Chapada copper guidance raised to 45,000–50,000 t in 2026, Caserones 2027 guidance increased to 115,000–125,000 t, consolidated gold guidance of 134,000–149,000 ounces for 2026, and consolidated cash costs forecast at $1.90–$2.10 per pound Cu (after by‑product credits); capital spending is expected to include sustaining CapEx of ~$550 million (≈80% at Candelaria and Caserones), expansionary CapEx of $445 million (including 50% of Vicuña and $35 million at Candelaria), and exploration of ~$53 million for ~70,000 metres of drilling; site‑level metrics include Caserones cathode production guidance of ~26,000–28,000 tpa (2026–2028), Saíva Phase‑1 PFS adding ~17,000 tpa Cu and ~32,000 oz Au over five years with a ball mill expected to lift recoveries by ~5%, Chapada ball mill construction late‑2026/early‑2027 with commissioning near end‑2027, and cost assumptions (TC/RC) embedded in guidance (assumed 25 and 2.5), all supported by an upsized revolving credit facility to $4.5 billion and a potential Vicuña sanction decision by year‑end.Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.04B | 3.81B | 3.42B | 2.74B | 3.04B | 3.33B |
| Gross Profit | 1.55B | 1.05B | 1.51B | 1.10B | 1.32B | 1.89B |
| EBITDA | 1.92B | 1.63B | 1.15B | 828.28M | 974.80M | 1.64B |
| Net Income | 1.45B | 1.31B | -203.53M | 241.56M | 426.85M | 780.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.98B | 10.80B | 10.40B | 10.78B | 8.25B | 7.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 565.40M | 303.75M | 407.34M | 266.86M | 193.26M | 588.48M |
| Total Debt | 380.30M | 615.38M | 2.00B | 1.48B | 199.26M | 30.71M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.75B | 2.87B | 4.89B | 4.41B | 2.77B | 2.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.85B | 6.61B | 4.42B | 4.93B | 4.91B | 4.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 955.17M | 616.30M | 579.24M | 114.49M | 40.96M | 961.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.65B | 1.31B | 1.35B | 985.52M | 858.78M | 1.49B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 615.26M | 627.19M | -973.92M | -1.71B | -1.00B | -543.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.13B | -2.06B | -214.19M | 798.47M | -234.66M | -481.13M |
Lundin Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
40.32
Price Trends
36.08
Positive
35.57
Positive
28.19
Positive
Market Momentum
0.76
Negative
49.97
Neutral
56.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.01, above the 50-day MA of 36.08, and above the 200-day MA of 28.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUN.
Lundin Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$13.63B | 11.10 | 20.70% | 0.07% | 14.46% | 316.60% | |
78 Outperform | C$33.03B | 18.96 | 23.11% | 0.68% | 18.62% | ― | |
72 Outperform | C$3.92B | 6.49 | 31.19% | ― | 87.54% | 1269.40% | |
65 Neutral | C$9.81B | 14.29 | 12.69% | ― | 37.06% | 421.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$3.46B | 48.59 | 2.27% | ― | 27.92% | ― | |
57 Neutral | C$29.06B | -25.38 | -1.78% | ― | 9.31% | -245.11% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
37.95
25.44
203.38%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
33.65
21.92
186.90%
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
9.07
6.20
216.03%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
12.70
5.98
88.99%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
37.02
18.00
94.64%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
35.56
15.93
81.15%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.