Lundin Mining (LUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$30.62B
• Dividend Yield: 0.68%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.19M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.1
• Beta (1Y): 2.24
• Revenue Growth: -19.68%
• EPS Growth: -90.05%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 6,195
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.59
• Shares Outstanding: 854,533,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,294,068
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,189,517
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.83
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.82
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$36.48
• Price Target Upside: 1.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$4.54B

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: C$39.00 ▲(8.85% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance (revenue growth, lower leverage, solid cash generation) and strong technical trend signals. The latest earnings call adds support via higher copper guidance and lower cost guidance, while valuation is the primary drag due to the extremely high P/E and low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improved balance sheet / lower leverage

Material leverage improvement and a sizable equity base enhance financial resilience and funding optionality. A stronger capital structure reduces refinancing risk, supports sustained capex and project development, and underpins capacity to return cash to shareholders over the medium term.

Solid operating cash generation

Consistent operating cash generation funds operations, sustaining capital and distributions without excessive reliance on external financing. This cash flexibility supports dividend continuity, targeted buybacks and the ability to fund growth projects when commodity cycles improve.

Rising copper production and lower unit costs

Higher copper output together with lower cash costs improves structural margins and operating leverage. Sustained higher production and tighter cost guidance enhance free cash flow potential and increase optionality for sanctioning development projects and maintaining shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Earnings volatility / recent net loss

Volatile net income driven by commodity-price swings and episodic cost items reduces predictability of earnings and returns. Persistent volatility can constrain long-term planning, depress return on equity, and complicate sustained dividend or growth commitments across cycles.

Uneven free cash flow generation

Although cash generation is positive TTM, declining and lumpy free cash flow raises risk to durable capital allocation. Uneven cash flow complicates funding of capex, dividends and buybacks without leaning on balance sheet flexibility, especially through weaker commodity periods.

Operational and logistics execution risks

Weather, port logistics and site-level cost pressures can materially affect inventories, working capital and unit costs. Recurring operational setbacks or mine-specific cost inflation threaten guidance credibility, margins and the timing of cash flows used for investment or returns.

Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States. It primarily produces copper, zinc, nickel, and gold, as well as lead, silver, and other metals. The company holds 100% interests in the Chapada mine located in Brazil; the Neves-Corvo mine located in Portugal; the Eagle mine located in the United States; and the Zinkgruvan mine located in Sweden. It also holds 80% interests in the Candelaria and Ojos del Salado mining complex located in Chile. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004. Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Lundin Mining makes money primarily by producing and selling mined metals. Its revenue model is commodity-based: it earns sales revenue when it delivers payable metal contained in products such as concentrates and/or refined metal, with realized prices largely linked to prevailing market benchmarks (e.g., exchange-traded metal prices) and adjusted for product-specific terms. Key revenue streams include: - Copper sales: Revenue generated from producing copper-bearing ore, processing it into copper concentrate and/or saleable copper products, and selling those under offtake/customer contracts. - Zinc sales: Revenue from zinc concentrate and/or refined zinc products where applicable, sold under commercial agreements. - Nickel and lead sales: Revenue from nickel and lead production sold to end users or traders, typically priced off market benchmarks. - By-product credits (where applicable): Gold, silver, and other by-products recovered during processing can be sold, generating additional revenue or effectively reducing the reported cost of producing primary metals. How sales are monetized and what drives earnings: - Payable metal and treatment/refining charges: For concentrate sales, customers typically pay for a specified percentage of contained metal ("payable metal") and deduct treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) and other penalties/credits based on concentrate quality (e.g., impurities) and market conditions. This directly affects net revenue per tonne sold. - Volume and grade: Earnings are driven by production volumes, ore grades, recoveries in the mill, and operational reliability, which determine how much payable metal is produced and sold. - Commodity prices and foreign exchange: Because metals are generally priced in global markets, changes in copper/zinc/nickel/lead prices and currency movements can materially impact revenue and margins. - Cost structure and sustaining capital: Profitability depends on mining and processing costs, logistics, royalties, and sustaining capital required to maintain operations. - Hedging/marketing (if applicable): Any use of commodity price risk management or provisional pricing mechanisms in contracts can affect the timing and realized price of revenue; specific program details are not provided here. Significant partnerships or factors contributing to earnings: - Offtake and customer relationships: Revenue realization depends on commercial contracts with smelters, refiners, industrial consumers, and commodity traders for the purchase of concentrates/metals and the associated pricing and TC/RC terms. - Joint ventures/ownership interests: If an operation is jointly owned, Lundin Mining generally recognizes its share of production and earnings according to its ownership and the relevant accounting treatment; specific JV arrangements are not provided here.

Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are improving in TTM: revenue grew 9.4%, leverage declined materially, and operating/free cash flow remain solid. Offsetting this is profitability volatility (2024 net loss and a modest latest net margin) and uneven/declining free cash flow year over year.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose 9.4%, showing solid top-line momentum. Operating profitability looks strong with healthy gross and EBITDA margins, but bottom-line performance is less consistent: the latest net margin is modest and 2024 posted a net loss, highlighting earnings volatility typical of cyclical metals pricing and cost swings.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with low debt relative to equity versus 2024, signaling a strengthened capital structure. Equity remains sizable versus total assets, providing balance-sheet resilience. The key drawback is muted recent returns on equity, indicating profits are not currently translating into strong shareholder returns despite the healthier leverage profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow covering reported earnings and free cash flow remaining meaningfully positive. However, free cash flow declined year over year in TTM, and free cash flow has historically been uneven, suggesting sensitivity to working capital, capital spending, and commodity-cycle effects.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.81B	3.42B	2.74B	3.04B	3.33B
Gross Profit	1.05B	1.51B	1.10B	1.32B	1.89B
EBITDA	1.63B	1.15B	828.28M	974.80M	1.64B
Net Income	1.31B	-203.53M	241.56M	426.85M	780.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.80B	10.40B	10.78B	8.25B	7.57B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	303.75M	407.34M	266.86M	193.26M	588.48M
Total Debt	615.38M	2.00B	1.48B	199.26M	30.71M
Total Liabilities	2.87B	4.89B	4.41B	2.77B	2.62B
Stockholders Equity	6.61B	4.42B	4.93B	4.91B	4.40B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	616.30M	579.24M	114.49M	40.96M	961.85M
Operating Cash Flow	1.31B	1.35B	985.52M	858.78M	1.49B
Investing Cash Flow	627.19M	-973.92M	-1.71B	-1.00B	-543.45M
Financing Cash Flow	-2.06B	-214.19M	798.47M	-234.66M	-481.13M

Lundin Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.23, above the 50-day MA of 35.73, and above the 200-day MA of 23.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:LUN.

Lundin Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LUN	74 Outperform	C$30.62B	14.08	21.95%	0.68%	-19.68%	-90.05%
HBM	70 Outperform	C$11.80B	13.57	19.30%	0.07%	5.40%	413.48%
ERO	67 Neutral	C$3.88B	10.93	31.58%	―	29.97%	658.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKO	60 Neutral	C$3.48B	152.81	-5.02%	―	1.17%	-169.37%
CS	59 Neutral	$8.71B	23.80	9.77%	―	44.69%	1216.12%
FM	51 Neutral	$28.25B	-796.52	0.41%	―	8.17%	―

Lundin Mining Corporate Events

Lundin Mining Cuts Share Count After Completing US$150 Million 2025 Buyback

Lundin Mining has updated its share capital to reflect the completion of its 2025 normal course issuer bid, reporting 854,347,591 common shares outstanding with voting rights as of December 31 after a net reduction of 1,399,950 shares. Over the year, the company repurchased 15,088,180 shares at a cost of about US$150 million, meeting its targeted annual allocation for buybacks as part of a capital-return strategy that balances dividends and repurchases, underscoring management’s emphasis on shareholder returns and disciplined balance sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LUN) stock is a Buy with a C$32.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lundin Mining stock, see the TSE:LUN Stock Forecast page.