Lundin Mining (LUN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$25.07B
• Dividend Yield: 0.68%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 612.4
• Beta (1Y): 2.09
• Revenue Growth: -19.68%
• EPS Growth: -90.05%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 6,195
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.25
• Shares Outstanding: 855,770,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,279,596
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,708,836
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.95
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$26.56
• Price Target Upside: -9.35% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$31.00 ▲(5.80% Upside)

Lundin Mining's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and bullish technical indicators. The earnings call further supports a positive outlook with record revenue and improved guidance. However, the high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, which tempers the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Achieving record revenue indicates strong demand for Lundin's products and effective operational execution, supporting long-term growth.

Cash Generation

Strong cash generation enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and shareholder returns, crucial for sustainable growth.

Operational Efficiency

Efficient production costs improve margins and competitiveness, allowing Lundin to better withstand commodity price fluctuations.

Negative Factors

Profitability Concerns

Low net profit margins suggest challenges in cost management or pricing power, potentially limiting reinvestment and growth opportunities.

Higher Production Costs

Increased production costs at key operations can erode margins and profitability, affecting long-term financial health and competitiveness.

Shipment Delays

Shipment delays can lead to inventory build-up and cash flow timing issues, potentially impacting operational efficiency and customer relationships.

Lundin Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lundin Mining Corporation is a Canadian base metals mining company focused on the production of copper, zinc, gold, and nickel. The company operates several high-quality mines in North America and South America, including its flagship assets such as the Candelaria mine in Chile and the Neves-Corvo mine in Portugal. Lundin Mining is committed to sustainable mining practices and aims to maximize value for its shareholders while minimizing environmental impact.

How the Company Makes Money

Lundin Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of base metals, including copper, zinc, and nickel, as well as precious metals like gold. The company's revenue model is largely driven by the volume of metal produced at its mines, which is influenced by operational efficiency and market demand. Key revenue streams include the sale of concentrate and refined metals to various customers, including smelters and metal traders. Additionally, Lundin Mining benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market access. Fluctuations in global commodity prices, production costs, and regulatory environments also play a significant role in the company's earnings.

Lundin Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lundin Mining demonstrates a stable financial position with strong equity and efficient cost management. However, challenges in revenue growth and profitability are evident, as reflected in the low net profit margin and recent decline in free cash flow growth. Despite these challenges, the company maintains low leverage and a strong capital structure, providing financial stability.

Income Statement

Lundin Mining's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a slight decline in revenue growth at -4.24%, reflecting potential challenges in market demand or pricing. However, the company maintains a stable gross profit margin of 32.04% and an EBIT margin of 19.29%, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin is low at 0.42%, suggesting limited profitability. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth and margins, with a notable peak in 2021. Overall, the company demonstrates resilience but faces profitability challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11 in the TTM period, indicating low leverage and financial stability. The return on equity is modest at 0.27%, suggesting limited returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong capital structure. Historical data indicates a consistent increase in stockholders' equity, enhancing financial resilience. However, the company should focus on improving ROE for better shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Lundin Mining's cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth at -7.84% in the TTM period, indicating potential cash generation challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.24, suggesting efficient cash conversion from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, reflecting moderate cash flow generation relative to net income. Historical data shows fluctuating free cash flow growth, with a peak in 2021. The company maintains solid cash flow management but should address the recent decline in free cash flow growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.89B	3.42B	2.74B	3.04B	3.33B	2.04B
Gross Profit	1.57B	1.51B	1.10B	1.32B	1.89B	945.60M
EBITDA	1.52B	1.15B	828.28M	974.80M	1.64B	691.31M
Net Income	137.02M	-203.53M	241.56M	426.85M	780.35M	168.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.96B	10.40B	10.78B	8.25B	7.57B	7.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	403.92M	407.34M	266.86M	193.26M	588.48M	141.16M
Total Debt	873.24M	2.00B	1.48B	199.26M	30.71M	202.64M
Total Liabilities	4.18B	4.89B	4.41B	2.77B	2.62B	2.56B
Stockholders Equity	8.22B	4.42B	4.93B	4.91B	4.40B	3.97B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	781.38M	579.24M	114.49M	40.96M	961.85M	146.30M
Operating Cash Flow	1.42B	1.35B	985.52M	858.78M	1.49B	599.40M
Investing Cash Flow	563.71M	-973.92M	-1.71B	-1.00B	-543.45M	-459.03M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.99B	-214.19M	798.47M	-234.66M	-481.13M	-237.06M

Lundin Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 29.30
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.69, above the 50-day MA of 24.61, and above the 200-day MA of 16.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.97 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUN.

Lundin Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERO	76 Outperform	$3.83B	20.04	17.26%	―	29.97%	658.38%
HBM	76 Outperform	$10.74B	16.80	16.43%	0.07%	5.40%	413.48%
CS	73 Outperform	C$10.29B	24.37	9.83%	―	44.69%	1216.12%
FM	73 Outperform	$30.11B	479.25	0.41%	―	8.17%	―
LUN	72 Outperform	C$25.07B	612.45	3.33%	0.68%	-19.68%	-90.05%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKO	58 Neutral	C$2.75B	-42.44	-10.53%	―	1.17%	-169.37%

Lundin Mining Corporate Events

Lundin Mining Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights

Lundin Mining Corp’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust performance for the quarter, marked by record revenue, enhanced copper production, and improved safety records. The company successfully implemented cost reduction strategies, although these positives were tempered by shipment delays and increased production costs at Candelaria.

Lundin Mining Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend

Lundin Mining has announced a regular quarterly dividend of CAD $0.0275 per share, payable on December 22, 2025, for shareholders on record by December 5, 2025. This move reflects the company’s commitment to returning value to shareholders and may impact its financial strategy and investor relations, particularly with the temporary administrative cross-border transfer closure affecting share transfers between TSX and Nasdaq Stockholm.

Lundin Mining Boosts Copper Production Guidance Amid Strong Q3 Results

Lundin Mining reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with copper production, revenue, EBITDA, and earnings surpassing previous quarters. The company has increased its full-year copper production guidance to a range of 319,000 to 337,000 tonnes and lowered its cash cost guidance, reflecting improved operational performance, particularly at the Caserones and Chapada sites. The company is advancing its growth initiatives, including the Vicuña Project, aiming to become a top-ten global copper producer. Lundin Mining’s strategic moves and financial performance indicate a robust position in the mining industry, with implications for stakeholders in terms of potential growth and shareholder returns.

Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital and Buyback Progress

Lundin Mining has announced an update on its share capital, reporting an increase in issued and outstanding shares to 856,555,834 as of October 31, 2025, due to the exercise of employee stock options and vesting of employee share units. The company has also provided an update on its share buyback program, having acquired 12,629,000 common shares at a cost of approximately US$104 million in 2025, as part of its commitment to allocate up to US$150 million annually for share buybacks.

Lundin Mining Pre-Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Impacts

Lundin Mining has announced preliminary items affecting its third-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a positive impact on revenue due to provisional pricing adjustments on prior copper and gold sales, amounting to approximately $11 million. However, a shipment delay of copper concentrate due to weather issues will defer some revenue to the fourth quarter, while a non-cash unrealized loss of $26 million is expected due to rising gold prices affecting derivative contracts.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LUN) stock is a Buy with a C$23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lundin Mining stock, see the TSE:LUN Stock Forecast page.

Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital and Buyback Progress

Lundin Mining has announced an update to its share capital, with an increase in the number of issued and outstanding shares to 856,468,476 as of September 30, 2025, due to the exercise of employee stock options and vesting of employee share units. The company has also provided an update on its share buyback program, stating that it has acquired 12,629,000 common shares at a cost of approximately US$104 million in 2025, under its commitment to allocate up to US$150 million annually for buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LUN) stock is a Buy with a C$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lundin Mining stock, see the TSE:LUN Stock Forecast page.

Lundin Mining Appoints New CEO for Vicuña Corp

Lundin Mining Corporation announced the appointment of Ron Hochstein as the new Chief Executive Officer of Vicuña Corp, a joint venture with BHP. Hochstein brings over 30 years of experience in the mining sector, having previously led the successful development of the Fruta del Norte gold mine in Ecuador. His leadership is expected to enhance the Vicuña Project’s development, focusing on stakeholder engagement and advancing the mega project in Argentina.

Lundin Mining to Undertake Remediation After Alcaparrosa Mine Sinkhole

Lundin Mining has been mandated by the Chilean State Defense Council to undertake remediation activities following a sinkhole incident at its Alcaparrosa mine in July 2022. These activities include backfilling the sinkhole, aquifer recharge, and enhancing water systems in nearby communities. The Alcaparrosa mine operations remain suspended, but the company’s Candelaria operation is unaffected and is projected to produce significant copper output in 2025.

Lundin Mining Updates Share Capital and Buyback Progress

Lundin Mining announced an update on its share capital and share buyback activities. The company reported an increase in its issued and outstanding shares due to employee stock options and share units, while also detailing its ongoing commitment to share buybacks, having acquired 12,629,000 shares at a cost of approximately US$104 million in 2025.

Lundin Mining’s Strong Earnings Call Highlights Growth

Lundin Mining Corp’s recent earnings call conveyed a strong and optimistic sentiment, highlighting significant achievements in both financial and operational domains. The company reported robust production numbers and sustainability milestones, alongside effective debt reduction strategies. Despite facing some operational challenges, such as downtime at Caserones and increased capital expenditure, Lundin Mining remains positive about its strategic growth initiatives moving forward.

Lundin Mining Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results

Lundin Mining Corporation is a Canadian-based diversified mining company primarily focused on producing copper, gold, and nickel, with operations in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and the United States. The company is known for its strategic growth initiatives and commitment to sustainability.

Lundin Mining Reports Robust Q2 2025 Results and Strategic Growth Plans

Lundin Mining reported strong second quarter 2025 results, with over $930 million in revenue and significant free cash flow. The company achieved record safety performance and reduced its net debt through the sale of European assets. Lundin Mining is on track with its production guidance and continues to focus on growth, aiming to become a top-ten global copper producer. The company also highlighted its commitment to sustainability and shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks.