Capstone Copper (TSE:CS)
TSX:CS
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Capstone Copper
(TSX:CS)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$13.50
▲(5.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance and a constructive earnings-call outlook (record operating results, stronger liquidity/leverage, and defined growth projects), tempered by weak technical momentum and mixed cash-flow quality (low free-cash-flow conversion and high near-term capital intensity). Valuation is also only moderately supportive given the ~23.8 P/E and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability & Margins
Capstone’s TTM gross (~33%) and net (~17%) margins show a meaningful recovery versus 2023 losses, indicating stronger unit economics. Durable margin improvement supports internal funding for operations and projects and provides a cushion against short-term commodity swings over the next several months.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
Operating cash roughly matches net income and FCF is only ~16% of net income TTM, leaving limited buffer after working capital and capex. Variability in cash conversion and prior negative FCF years increase risk that near-term capex and stripping needs could strain liquidity if operational or price headwinds persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Profitability & Margins
Capstone’s TTM gross (~33%) and net (~17%) margins show a meaningful recovery versus 2023 losses, indicating stronger unit economics. Durable margin improvement supports internal funding for operations and projects and provides a cushion against short-term commodity swings over the next several months.
Read all positive factors
Capstone Copper (CS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$9.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.69M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.3
Beta (1Y)2.64
Revenue Growth37.06%
EPS Growth421.94%
CountryCA
Employees1,049
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding763,656,740
10 Day Avg. Volume4,723,861
30 Day Avg. Volume5,689,881
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)2.26
Price to Sales (P/S)3.19
P/FCF Ratio111.88
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$16.27Price Target Upside26.88% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)0.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.80B
Capstone Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Capstone Copper Corp. operates as a copper mining company with focus on the Americas. It owns and operates the Pinto Valley copper mine located in Arizona, the United States; the Cozamin copper-silver mine located in Zacatecas, Mexico; the Mantos ...
How the Company Makes Money
Capstone Copper makes money primarily by selling copper-bearing products produced at its mining operations. Its main revenue stream is the sale of copper concentrate to smelters/traders under offtake or sales contracts; revenue is typically based ...
Capstone Copper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: management reported record production, record quarterly revenue and EBITDA, materially improved liquidity and leverage, successful ramp at Mantoverde and strong operational performance at Mantos Blancos and Cozamin. The company articulated a clear growth roadmap (Mantoverde Optimize, Mantos Blancos Phase II, Santo Domingo JV) and increased exploration funding. Near-term negatives include downtime at Mantoverde, drought-driven constraints at Pinto Valley, a conservative 2026 guidance driven by temporary lower grades (notably at Mantos Blancos) and elevated near-term capital/stripping needs; Santo Domingo financing and permitting remain workstreams. On balance the operational and financial achievements and de-risking steps outweigh the short-term challenges.Positive Updates
Record Production and Year-over-Year Growth
Full year 2025 consolidated copper production of 225,000 tonnes (a 22% increase vs. 2024) and record Q4 consolidated copper production of 58,300 tonnes.
Negative Updates
Guidance Reaction and Near-Term Grade Pressure
2026 guidance was received poorly by the market; company expects largely stable production but higher C1 costs driven by lower-grade zones at Mantos Blancos and Pinto Valley and modest inflation, with Mantos Blancos grade expected ~0.7% in 2026 (down from ~0.85–0.9% prior) and recovery to higher grades in 2027.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Year-over-Year Growth
Full year 2025 consolidated copper production of 225,000 tonnes (a 22% increase vs. 2024) and record Q4 consolidated copper production of 58,300 tonnes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Capstone’s 2026 guidance calls for total consolidated copper production of 200,000–230,000 tonnes at a C1 cash cost of $2.45–$2.75 per payable pound (which management said would be ~$0.10/lb lower at current spot metal prices), with sustaining capital of roughly $270 million, expansionary capital of $225 million (primarily ~$150 million for Mantoverde Optimize, $15 million for Mantos Blancos and $60 million for Santo Domingo), capital stripping of $225 million and exploration of $70 million. Mantoverde Optimize’s total capex is expected at about $176 million (adding ~20,000 tpa at ~ $9,000/tonne) with a target to exit 2026 at ~45,000 tpd throughput. Raman highlighted 2026 EBITDA at the midpoint of guidance is modeled at roughly $1.2–$1.7 billion at copper prices of $5.50–$6.50/lb (with 2027 EBITDA expected to approach $1.7–$2.3 billion), and the company noted liquidity of >$1 billion (cash $304M, undrawn RCF $711M) and YE2025 net debt $780M (net debt/EBITDA 0.8x).Capstone Copper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.47B | 2.40B | 1.60B | 1.35B | 1.30B | 794.77M |
| Gross Profit | 812.67M | 548.67M | 522.46M | 319.36M | 381.86M | 452.37M |
| EBITDA | 1.30B | 995.65M | 353.40M | 184.33M | 334.97M | 434.28M |
| Net Income | 421.12M | 321.40M | 82.91M | -101.67M | 122.20M | 226.83M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.24B | 7.18B | 6.36B | 5.83B | 5.43B | 1.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 394.41M | 303.64M | 132.27M | 125.91M | 173.55M | 261.87M |
| Total Debt | 1.60B | 1.54B | 1.32B | 1.36B | 811.22M | 15.89M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.29B | 3.36B | 2.90B | 2.79B | 2.22B | 704.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.50B | 3.38B | 3.05B | 2.64B | 2.78B | 1.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 111.19M | 68.38M | -133.88M | -577.25M | -488.34M | 409.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 679.06M | 596.57M | 292.64M | 49.48M | 54.75M | 540.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -603.03M | -563.39M | -425.08M | -621.66M | -337.00M | -158.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -34.14M | 141.73M | 139.87M | 523.41M | 193.79M | -180.53M |
Capstone Copper Technical Analysis
Positive
12.82
Price Trends
12.43
Positive
13.12
Negative
11.68
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Negative
61.96
Neutral
85.55
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.15, above the 50-day MA of 12.43, and above the 200-day MA of 11.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.96 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.55 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CS.
Capstone Copper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$31.75B | 18.96 | 23.11% | 0.68% | 18.62% | ― | |
72 Outperform | C$13.60B | 11.10 | 20.70% | 0.07% | 14.46% | 316.60% | |
72 Outperform | C$4.06B | 6.49 | 31.58% | ― | 87.54% | 1269.40% | |
65 Neutral | C$9.64B | 14.29 | 12.69% | ― | 37.06% | 421.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$3.74B | 48.59 | -5.02% | ― | 27.92% | ― | |
57 Neutral | C$29.20B | -25.38 | -1.78% | ― | 9.31% | -245.11% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
12.62
5.47
76.50%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
34.27
22.62
194.19%
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
10.23
7.28
246.78%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
37.16
24.79
200.40%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
38.96
19.91
104.51%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
35.00
14.83
73.53%
Capstone Copper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Capstone Copper Sets Date for First-Quarter 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Apr 7, 2026
Capstone Copper Corp. plans to release its first-quarter 2026 financial results on April 29, 2026, after markets close, and will host a webcast and conference call for investors later that day, with an audio replay available for a limited period a...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Capstone Copper Delivers Record 2025 Earnings as Growth Projects Advance
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Capstone Copper reported record fourth-quarter 2025 results, with consolidated copper production rising to 58,273 tonnes and full-year output reaching an all-time high of 224,764 tonnes at record low C1 cash costs. Higher volumes sold at stronger ...
Business Operations and Strategy
Capstone Copper Sets 2026 Output, Cost and Capital Plans to Support Growth Pipeline
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Capstone Copper has issued its 2026 guidance, forecasting consolidated copper production of 200,000 to 230,000 tonnes at C1 cash costs of $2.45 to $2.75 per payable pound, signaling largely stable output versus 2025. The company plans $270 million...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.