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Capstone Copper (TSE:CS)
TSX:CS
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Capstone Copper (CS) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CS

Capstone Copper

(TSX:CS)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$9.50
▼(-6.77% Downside)
Capstone Copper's overall score is driven by strong technical analysis and positive earnings call sentiment, reflecting record production and financial performance. However, high P/E ratio and cash flow challenges weigh on the valuation and financial performance scores.

Capstone Copper (CS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Capstone Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCapstone Copper Corp. operates as a copper mining company with focus on the Americas. It owns and operates the Pinto Valley copper mine located in Arizona, the United States; the Cozamin copper-silver mine located in Zacatecas, Mexico; the Mantos Blancos copper-silver mine located in the Antofagasta region, Chile; and 70% of the Mantoverde copper-gold mine located in the Atacama region, Chile. The company also owns the fully permitted Santo Domingo copper-gold project located northeast of Mantoverde in the Atacama region, Chile, as well as a portfolio of exploration properties in the Americas. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCapstone Copper generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper concentrate, which is produced from its mining operations. The company benefits from fluctuations in copper prices in global markets, and its profitability is closely linked to these market conditions. Additional revenue streams include by-products such as gold and silver, which are extracted during copper production. Capstone Copper has established significant partnerships with various stakeholders, including suppliers and local communities, to enhance its operational efficiency and ensure sustainable practices. The company also focuses on optimizing its mining processes to reduce costs and improve margins, further contributing to its earnings.

Capstone Copper Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong performance in terms of production, financial metrics, and operational achievements at Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos. However, challenges at Pinto Valley due to water constraints and recovery issues at Mantoverde posed significant operational hurdles. The overall sentiment is mixed but leans towards positive due to record production, decreased costs, and strong financial results.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Copper Production
In Q2 2025, Capstone Copper achieved record copper production of 57,400 tonnes, marking a 34% increase compared to the first half of the previous year.
Decreased Cash Costs
C1 cash costs reached $2.45 per pound, a 5% decrease from the previous quarter and a 13% decrease compared to Q2 2024.
Strong Financial Position
Capstone Copper reported record quarterly revenue of $543 million and adjusted EBITDA of $215 million, a 75% increase year-over-year.
Improved Liquidity and Debt Reduction
The company ended Q2 with liquidity over $1 billion and reduced net debt from $788 million in Q1 to $692 million, leading to a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1x.
Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos Achievements
Both sites achieved average throughputs above their design rates, with Mantoverde reaching record production and cash costs of $1.51 per pound from sulfides.
Mantoverde Optimized Permit
Capstone received the Mantoverde Optimized permit, allowing throughput increase from 32,000 to 45,000 tonnes per day.
Negative Updates
Pinto Valley Challenges
Pinto Valley experienced lower production and higher costs due to unplanned downtime and water constraints, with cash costs elevated at $3.89 per pound.
Mantoverde Recovery Issues
Mantoverde faced lower recoveries at 77.6% due to mining through transition zones with higher oxide content.
Pinto Valley's Water Constraints
Extreme drought conditions in Central Arizona led to reduced throughput, limiting the operation to 4 of 6 mills.
Delayed Throughput at Pinto Valley
Pinto Valley is tracking towards the lower end of its production guidance range and the higher end of its cost guidance range.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Capstone Copper delivered record copper production of 57,400 tonnes at a consolidated C1 cash cost of $2.45 per pound, achieving the lowest cash costs to date. This performance was driven by record sulfide production at Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos, with both sites surpassing their design throughput rates. The quarter also saw strong financial results, with record quarterly revenue of $543 million and adjusted EBITDA of $215 million, marking a 75% increase year-over-year. The company reported an adjusted net income of $27.5 million, or $0.04 per share, reflecting a 32% improvement from the previous year. Capstone's liquidity stood at over $1 billion, and net debt decreased to $692 million, bringing the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio down to 1x. Despite challenges at Pinto Valley due to drought conditions, Capstone reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and expects stronger production in the second half of the year, focusing on operational execution and cost reduction.

Capstone Copper Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Capstone Copper shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, but faces cash flow challenges with a significant decline in free cash flow growth. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, though profitability from equity could improve.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Capstone Copper's income statement reflects a solid revenue growth rate of 8.37% TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. Gross profit margin stands at 31.24%, showcasing effective cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.89%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 12.94% and 30.59%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity is low at 2.48%, suggesting limited profitability from equity investments. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet is stable but could benefit from improved returns.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth, down by 668.36% TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.91, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.21, highlighting potential cash flow challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.94B1.60B1.35B1.30B794.77M453.76M
Gross Profit606.99M522.46M83.02M207.80M360.44M82.18M
EBITDA594.31M353.40M175.48M391.10M442.74M119.86M
Net Income75.58M82.91M-101.67M122.20M226.83M12.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.61B6.37B5.87B5.38B1.73B1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments311.60M132.35M126.82M171.86M264.35M60.01M
Total Debt1.35B1.43B1.16B702.97M16.04M193.13M
Total Liabilities3.11B2.90B2.81B2.20B711.53M502.42M
Stockholders Equity3.08B3.05B2.66B2.75B1.02B779.06M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow130.46M-109.65M-499.91M-472.33M419.92M49.65M
Operating Cash Flow611.63M398.64M116.82M87.42M553.35M147.17M
Investing Cash Flow-481.11M-506.77M-673.28M-370.74M-143.69M-96.37M
Financing Cash Flow42.88M115.94M508.47M192.14M-204.28M-34.13M

Capstone Copper Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price10.19
Price Trends
50DMA
8.73
Positive
100DMA
7.95
Positive
200DMA
8.17
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.38
Negative
RSI
66.19
Neutral
STOCH
86.43
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.54, above the 50-day MA of 8.73, and above the 200-day MA of 8.17, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.43 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CS.

Capstone Copper Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Outperform
$7.62B73.892.51%42.07%
61
Neutral
$10.29B7.21-0.06%2.89%2.87%-36.73%
$5.33B18.3810.81%0.11%
$1.08B10.75-5.19%
$9.99B24.682.61%1.65%
$1.58B11.4219.31%
$14.86B75.641.79%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
10.19
1.71
20.17%
HBM
Hudbay Minerals
13.46
6.51
93.67%
TGB
Taseko Mines
3.41
1.45
73.98%
LUNMF
Lundin Mining
11.76
3.34
39.67%
ERO
Ero Copper
16.26
-2.98
-15.49%
FQVLF
First Quantum Minerals
18.27
6.76
58.73%

Capstone Copper Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Capstone Copper Sanctions Mantoverde Expansion for Enhanced Production
Positive
Aug 8, 2025

Capstone Copper has announced the sanctioning of the Mantoverde Optimized project, a brownfield expansion of its sulphide concentrator, which will increase throughput and extend the mine’s life. This project, requiring an estimated capital cost of $176 million, is expected to enhance copper and gold production and is part of Capstone’s strategy for transformational growth in Chile. The expansion is anticipated to be completed by early 2027, with significant implications for the company’s production capacity and cost efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Capstone Copper Achieves Record Q2 2025 Results and Secures Key Permit
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp. reported record financial results for the second quarter of 2025, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA reaching new highs. The company achieved record copper production and significant cash flow, and completed a balance sheet refinancing strategy. The receipt of the Mantoverde Optimized permit marks a significant milestone, allowing for increased throughput and positioning the company well for future growth. Capstone Copper remains on track to meet its full-year guidance, with expectations for higher production in the second half of the year.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Capstone Copper Receives Key Permit for Mantoverde Expansion
Positive
Jul 8, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp. has received the DIA environmental permit for its Mantoverde Optimized project, marking a significant milestone in its expansion efforts. The project will increase throughput at the Mantoverde mine from 32,000 to 45,000 ore tonnes per day and extend the mine’s life from 19 to 25 years. This expansion is expected to add 20,000 tonnes of copper production annually with a capital investment of approximately $150 million. The permit is crucial for the project’s development and positions Capstone for transformational growth, especially when combined with the Santo Domingo project, potentially making the Mantoverde-Santo Domingo district one of the largest copper-producing areas globally. The company is committed to high safety and environmental standards and plans to update stakeholders on capital expenditures and project timelines pending board approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Capstone Copper to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jul 7, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp. announced it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on July 31, 2025, followed by an investor conference call. The release and call are part of Capstone’s ongoing efforts to maintain transparency and communication with stakeholders, reflecting its commitment to operational excellence and stakeholder value. This announcement may impact investor perceptions and market positioning as the company continues to focus on growth and profitability in the copper mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025