Capstone Copper (TSE:CS)
TSX:CS
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Capstone Copper (CS) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CS

Capstone Copper

(TSX:CS)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$13.50
▲(7.14% Upside)
Capstone Copper's overall score is driven by strong financial performance and positive technical indicators. The earnings call provided a boost with record revenue and EBITDA, but operational challenges and cash flow issues present risks. The valuation is moderate, with no dividend yield to attract income investors.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Record revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective production, supporting long-term financial health and expansion potential.
Operational Efficiency
Consistent reduction in cash costs demonstrates operational efficiency, enhancing profitability and competitive positioning in the market.
Liquidity Position
Strong liquidity and low leverage provide financial flexibility for strategic investments and resilience against market volatility.
Negative Factors
Operational Challenges
Operational disruptions at key sites can hinder production efficiency and affect overall output, posing risks to revenue consistency.
Cash Flow Issues
Declining free cash flow growth indicates potential liquidity constraints, affecting the ability to fund operations and growth initiatives.
Production Guidance
Lower production guidance suggests potential challenges in meeting output targets, impacting future revenue and market share.

Capstone Copper (CS) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Capstone Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCapstone Copper Corp. operates as a copper mining company with focus on the Americas. It owns and operates the Pinto Valley copper mine located in Arizona, the United States; the Cozamin copper-silver mine located in Zacatecas, Mexico; the Mantos Blancos copper-silver mine located in the Antofagasta region, Chile; and 70% of the Mantoverde copper-gold mine located in the Atacama region, Chile. The company also owns the fully permitted Santo Domingo copper-gold project located northeast of Mantoverde in the Atacama region, Chile, as well as a portfolio of exploration properties in the Americas. The company is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCapstone Copper generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper concentrate, which is produced from its mining operations. The company benefits from fluctuations in copper prices in global markets, and its profitability is closely linked to these market conditions. Additional revenue streams include by-products such as gold and silver, which are extracted during copper production. Capstone Copper has established significant partnerships with various stakeholders, including suppliers and local communities, to enhance its operational efficiency and ensure sustainable practices. The company also focuses on optimizing its mining processes to reduce costs and improve margins, further contributing to its earnings.

Capstone Copper Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reported significant achievements in revenue, joint ventures, and EBITDA growth, along with effective cost control. However, these positive results were somewhat offset by operational challenges, particularly at Mantoverde and Pinto Valley, affecting production and leading to a cautious outlook on guidance.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Q3 2025 reported record quarterly revenue of $598.4 million, driven by strong copper production and commodity prices.
Joint Venture with Orion Resources Partners
Announced a minority joint venture agreement with Orion Resources Partners at the Santo Domingo project, with Orion contributing up to $360 million for 25% of the project.
Operational Excellence in Cost Control
Consolidated C1 cash cost of $2.42 per pound, marking the third consecutive quarter of cost reduction.
Record Adjusted EBITDA
Q3 2025 achieved record adjusted EBITDA of $249.2 million, an increase of 106% year-over-year.
Strong Operating Cash Flow
Reported strong operating cash flow of $231.2 million before working capital changes.
Improved Liquidity Position
Available liquidity greater than $1 billion as of September 30, 2025, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.9x.
Negative Updates
Mantoverde Motor Failures
Higher-than-normal downtime at Mantoverde due to motor failures in the ball mill, impacting production.
Arizona Drought Impact
Severe drought conditions in Arizona constrained throughput at Pinto Valley, leading to lower production.
Challenges at Mantos Blancos
Slightly lower throughput due to maintenance and structural issues with the final concentrate thickener.
Production and Cost Guidance Adjustments
Total copper production is expected to finish within the lower half of the range and cash costs within the upper half for 2025.
Company Guidance
During Capstone Copper's Q3 2025 results conference call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming quarters, emphasizing ongoing operational improvements and strategic growth initiatives. Consolidated copper production reached 55,300 tonnes at a C1 cash cost of $2.42 per pound, marking the third consecutive quarter of reduced cash costs. The Mantoverde site experienced higher downtime due to motor failures, impacting throughput, but was partially offset by record recoveries. The company anticipates finishing 2025 with production within the lower half of the guidance range and cash costs within the upper half. Strong copper prices drove record quarterly revenue of $598.4 million, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $249.2 million, a 106% year-over-year increase. Capstone's financial position is robust, with liquidity exceeding $1 billion and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.9x. Looking ahead, the company focuses on enhancing operational consistency, executing strategic projects such as the Mantoverde optimization and the Santo Domingo joint venture, and leveraging exploration opportunities to support long-term growth.

Capstone Copper Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Capstone Copper shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency, but faces cash flow challenges with a significant decline in free cash flow growth. The balance sheet is stable with manageable leverage, though profitability from equity could improve.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Capstone Copper's income statement reflects a solid revenue growth rate of 8.37% TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. Gross profit margin stands at 31.24%, showcasing effective cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.89%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 12.94% and 30.59%, respectively, indicating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44, indicating manageable leverage. Return on equity is low at 2.48%, suggesting limited profitability from equity investments. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet is stable but could benefit from improved returns.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth, down by 668.36% TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.91, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.21, highlighting potential cash flow challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.94B1.60B1.35B1.30B794.77M453.76M
Gross Profit726.38M522.46M319.36M381.86M452.37M162.57M
EBITDA601.33M353.40M184.33M334.97M434.28M96.77M
Net Income75.58M82.91M-101.67M122.20M226.83M12.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.60B6.36B5.83B5.43B1.71B1.39B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments310.94M132.27M125.91M173.55M261.87M59.88M
Total Debt1.45B1.32B1.36B811.22M15.89M192.74M
Total Liabilities3.11B2.90B2.79B2.22B704.84M501.41M
Stockholders Equity3.07B3.05B2.64B2.78B1.01B777.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow44.61M-133.88M-577.25M-488.34M409.41M40.18M
Operating Cash Flow505.60M292.64M49.48M54.75M540.59M142.65M
Investing Cash Flow-460.88M-425.08M-621.66M-337.00M-158.13M-101.26M
Financing Cash Flow124.62M139.87M523.41M193.79M-180.53M-23.88M

Capstone Copper Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price12.60
Price Trends
50DMA
11.38
Positive
100DMA
9.94
Positive
200DMA
8.72
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.19
Positive
RSI
54.38
Neutral
STOCH
63.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.79, above the 50-day MA of 11.38, and above the 200-day MA of 8.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CS.

Capstone Copper Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$9.34B23.0410.81%0.09%11.90%221.39%
69
Neutral
C$3.22B16.6717.26%29.97%658.38%
67
Neutral
$9.39B21.649.83%44.69%1216.12%
67
Neutral
$22.03B533.613.33%1.04%-19.68%-90.05%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
61
Neutral
$23.04B358.240.41%8.17%
56
Neutral
$2.32B-5.19%0.10%-135.33%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
12.19
2.72
28.72%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
23.83
11.75
97.27%
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
6.73
3.89
136.97%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
26.18
13.41
105.06%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
31.87
9.97
45.53%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
29.86
11.92
66.44%

Capstone Copper Corporate Events

Capstone Copper Corp Reports Record Q3 2025 Results
Oct 31, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp is a mining company primarily engaged in the production of copper, with operations spanning multiple sites in the Americas. The company is known for its focus on operational excellence and strategic growth initiatives.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Capstone Copper Achieves Record Q3 2025 Results Amid Strategic Growth Initiatives
Positive
Oct 30, 2025

Capstone Copper reported record financial results for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching an all-time high and adjusted EBITDA setting a quarterly record. The company’s strong performance was driven by increased copper production and lower cash costs, alongside strategic initiatives such as the Mantoverde Optimized project and a joint venture partnership at Santo Domingo. These efforts are expected to enhance project returns and support long-term value creation, although consolidated copper production is trending towards the lower end of guidance for 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Hold with a C$11.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Capstone Copper’s 2024 Sustainability Report Highlights Progress in Sustainable Operations
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

Capstone Copper has released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant achievements in sustainability and operational milestones. The report details the company’s progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing renewable energy usage, and improving water management. Notably, the Mantoverde concentrator unit began production, and the company achieved The Copper Mark certification for its Pinto Valley site. Despite a slight increase in injury rates, there was a substantial improvement in safety training hours. The workforce decreased due to project completion, but the proportion of female employees increased.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Capstone Copper Secures $360 Million Investment from Orion for Chilean Projects
Positive
Oct 13, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp. has announced a significant investment from Orion Resource Partners, which will acquire a 25% interest in the Santo Domingo and Sierra Norte projects for up to $360 million. This transaction provides financial flexibility for Capstone, reduces its capital funding requirements, and supports further exploration and development in the region. The partnership is expected to enhance project returns and create substantial economic benefits for local stakeholders in Chile, including job creation and tax contributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Capstone Copper Announces Promising Phase 1 Drill Results at Mantoverde
Positive
Oct 7, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp. has announced promising results from its Phase 1 drill program at the Mantoverde site in Chile, with higher than expected copper grades in several sectors. The findings, particularly in the Brecha Flores sector and the Santa Clara Corridor, suggest potential for resource growth and reserve conversion, supporting future expansion plans. The results also reinforce the geological model and indicate favorable implications for future mining operations, including potential improvements in stripping ratios. The company plans to continue its exploration efforts with a Phase 2 drill program focusing on the northern corridor, aiming to further capitalize on the site’s resource potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Capstone Copper to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Oct 6, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp. announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, followed by an investor conference call. This announcement is significant as it provides stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting investor decisions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$14.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Capstone Copper Resumes Full Operations at Mantoverde Mine
Positive
Sep 18, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp. has resumed full operations at its Mantoverde mine in Chile after addressing a motor failure in the ball mill that had interrupted production. The company plans to conduct five days of maintenance at the end of September. This resumption is significant for Capstone’s operational stability and its strategy to enhance copper production, which is crucial for meeting global demand and maintaining its competitive position in the mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Capstone Copper Faces Temporary Production Halt at Mantoverde Mine
Negative
Aug 31, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp. announced a temporary production interruption at its Mantoverde operation in Chile due to a motor failure in one of the ball mills. The company expects to operate at half capacity for approximately four weeks, impacting production by 3,000 to 4,000 tonnes of copper. Capstone is implementing mitigation strategies, including rescheduling maintenance, to minimize the impact and plans to update stakeholders as the situation progresses.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Capstone Copper’s Pinto Valley Site Receives Prestigious Copper Mark
Positive
Aug 25, 2025

Capstone Copper Corp. announced that its Pinto Valley site in Arizona has been awarded The Copper Mark, recognizing its responsible mining practices. This award, which has also been granted to Capstone’s Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos sites in Chile, underscores the company’s commitment to sustainable production and transparency. The Copper Mark serves as a significant assurance framework for responsible copper production, aligning with global sustainability goals. This achievement highlights Capstone’s dedication to meeting the growing demand for copper, a critical component in the global energy transition, while maintaining accountability to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Capstone Copper Sanctions Mantoverde Expansion for Enhanced Production
Positive
Aug 8, 2025

Capstone Copper has announced the sanctioning of the Mantoverde Optimized project, a brownfield expansion of its sulphide concentrator, which will increase throughput and extend the mine’s life. This project, requiring an estimated capital cost of $176 million, is expected to enhance copper and gold production and is part of Capstone’s strategy for transformational growth in Chile. The expansion is anticipated to be completed by early 2027, with significant implications for the company’s production capacity and cost efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CS) stock is a Buy with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Capstone Copper stock, see the TSE:CS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2025