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Taseko Mines (TSE:TKO)
XASE:TKO
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Taseko Mines
(NYSE MKT:TKO)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$13.00
▲(18.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is held back mainly by weaker financial quality (recent net losses, elevated leverage, and sharply negative 2025 free cash flow). This is partly offset by constructive technical trends and a generally positive earnings-call outlook driven by Florence ramp-up, Gibraltar production guidance, and strong liquidity, while valuation support is limited due to the negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Florence project ramp and new copper supply
Florence's commissioning and expected 30–35M lbs annual output add a new, scalable production source. Sustained electrowinning and plans to add 80–100 wells per year increase medium-term volume visibility, diversify supply versus Gibraltar and support revenue growth as ramp stabilizes.
Gibraltar operational strength and steady production outlook
Gibraltar's improved grades, recoveries and 2026 guidance support predictable multi-year copper output. Lower unit costs (Q4 USD 2.47/lb) and meaningful molybdenum by‑product reduce per‑lb cash cost volatility, underpinning durable cash generation across the guidance band.
Solid cash generation and liquidity buffer
Strong quarterly operating cash flow and ~CAD/USD 340M liquidity provide a material buffer during the Florence ramp and any short-term operational issues. This liquidity supports sustaining and growth capex, reduces near-term refinancing pressure and preserves optionality to advance projects.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and balance-sheet sensitivity
Debt running above equity increases sensitivity to copper-price swings and operational hiccups. Even with equity growth in 2025, elevated leverage constrains financial flexibility, heightens refinancing and covenant risk, and reduces capacity to absorb prolonged commodity or execution downturns.
Sharp free cash flow deterioration
A large swing to negative free cash flow reflects heavy capex and/or working capital strain, undermining internal funding capacity. Persistent or recurrent negative FCF would limit deleveraging, reinvestment or shareholder distributions and increase reliance on liquidity or external financing.
Geology and throughput variability impacting realized grades
Revised grade models and unexpected oxide/supergene mix, coupled with occasional mill downtime, reduce predictability of recoveries and throughput. This geological and operational variability can raise unit costs, lower realized production versus plans, and complicate reserve and long-term planning.
Taseko Mines (TKO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.08B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.62M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.95
Revenue Growth1.17%
EPS Growth-169.37%
CountryCA
Employees191
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.11
Shares Outstanding364,557,160
10 Day Avg. Volume1,881,850
30 Day Avg. Volume1,623,910
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.80
Price to Book (P/B)3.23
Price to Sales (P/S)3.73
P/FCF Ratio-8.91
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$12.36Price Target Upside12.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.09B
Taseko Mines Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTaseko Mines Limited, a mining company, acquires, develops, and operates mineral properties. The company explores for copper, molybdenum, gold, niobium, and silver deposits. It holds 75% interest in the Gibraltar mine located in British Columbia. It also holds 100% interest in Yellowhead copper project, the Aley niobium project, and the New Prosperity gold and copper project located in British Columbia; and the Florence copper project located in Arizona. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyTaseko Mines generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper, gold, and molybdenum produced at its mining operations. The company has a significant focus on copper, which is a critical metal used in various industries, including construction, electronics, and renewable energy. Revenue is derived from the extraction and processing of these minerals, with copper sales typically constituting the largest portion of their earnings. Taseko also benefits from strategic partnerships and long-term contracts that help stabilize its revenue streams. Additionally, fluctuations in commodity prices, operational efficiencies, and cost management play crucial roles in determining the company's profitability.
Taseko Mines Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the quarter and annual results show material operational and financial progress: Florence achieved first copper production with encouraging early wellfield performance, Gibraltar delivered a strong Q4 with improved grades, record revenues were recorded, adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow strengthened materially, and liquidity remains robust. Offsetting these positives are operational challenges at Gibraltar (unscheduled downtime, more supergene/oxide material and grade-model revisions), a fatal safety incident, minor commissioning delays at Florence and some near-term accounting impacts as capitalized commissioning costs are expensed. On balance the positive operational momentum, strong commodity pricing (copper ~25% higher YoY), significant cash generation and valuable project optionality outweigh the challenges.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Florence Copper Achieves First Production
Electrowinning circuit turned on and copper plating underway; first cathodes expected within days. Wellfield solutions have been flowing for ~3 months with higher-than-expected injection flow rates and accelerated acidification leading to faster-than-expected PLS grade ramp-up. Company expects Florence to produce approximately 30–35 million pounds of copper in 2026 and plans to add 80–100 new wells per year to support long-term production growth.
Strong Q4 Operational Performance at Gibraltar
Gibraltar Q4 copper head grade rose to 0.26% with recoveries of 81%, producing 31 million pounds of copper in the quarter. Molybdenum production was 800,000 pounds in Q4 — the best quarterly moly production in the mine's history. Higher grades and recoveries contributed to the quarter being the strongest production quarter of 2025.
Improved Unit Costs and Annual Production
Gibraltar Q4 total operating costs dropped to USD 2.47 per pound. For full-year 2025 Gibraltar produced 98 million pounds of copper and 1.9 million pounds of molybdenum at a cost of USD 2.66 per pound. Guidance for 2026 Gibraltar production is 110–115 million pounds of copper with expected annual production remaining in that range ±5% through 2028.
Record Revenues and Strong Realized Prices
Q4 revenue was CAD 244 million (including CAD 25 million of moly revenue); full-year 2025 revenue was CAD 673 million — the highest Taseko has recorded since owning 100% of its assets. Average realized copper price in 2025 was USD 4.61/lb, with Q4 realized price of USD 5.13/lb. Management notes copper prices are roughly 25% higher than last year’s average.
Material Improvement in Profitability Metrics
Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was CAD 116 million, up from CAD 56 million in Q4 2024 (approximately +107% YoY) and up from CAD 62 million in Q3 2025 (≈+87% QoQ). Full-year adjusted EBITDA was CAD 230 million, slightly higher than the prior year.
Strong Cash Generation and Liquidity
Cash flow from operations in Q4 was CAD 101 million; Gibraltar contributed CAD 72 million of free cash flow in Q4 and CAD 220 million of operating cash flow for the year. Year-end cash balance was CAD 188 million plus an undrawn USD 110 million revolving credit facility, giving total liquidity of approximately CAD/USD 340 million.
Florence Capital Spend Controlled and Near Budget
Final capital cost for the Florence commercial facility was USD 275 million, approximately 3% over the revised early-2024 budget. Capital spending fell to USD 8 million in Q4 as construction wound down; CAD 60 million of site operating and commissioning costs were capitalized in Q4 and will begin to be expensed as cathode production commences.
Portfolio Optionality and Project Value Upside
Yellowhead technical report confirms strong economics — previously modeled at USD 4.25/lb copper gave an after-tax NPV of CAD 2 billion; management estimates that at current prices the after-tax NPV could be ~CAD 4 billion. New Prosperity has an agreement with the Tsilhqot'in Nation and remains a valuable long-term asset. Niobium project in northern BC is also highlighted as one of the largest undeveloped deposits globally.
Negative Updates
Fatal Safety Incident at Gibraltar
A tragic accident in November resulted in the death of a contract worker. The incident is under review with on-site employees; management reiterated safety as a core value and extended condolences to the family and coworkers.
Throughput Impact from Unscheduled Mill Downtime
Gibraltar mill throughput was approximately 8% under design capacity in Q4 due to unscheduled mill downtime, which partially offset the benefit of higher grades and recoveries for the quarter.
Grade Model Revisions in Connector Pit
Management identified isolated ultra-high-grade drill holes that skewed the geological model; mined areas have not realized those higher grades. As a result, the company is reinterpreting drill data and taking a more conservative view on reserve grade (reserve grade 0.25% but management expects realized grade potentially 5–10% lower).
Higher-than-Expected Oxide/Supergene Material
Over the last 18 months the Connector pit contained more oxide, supergene and transitionary ore than anticipated. Oxide material is positive for SX/EW cathode production, but supergene/transition material processed through the concentrator yields lower recoveries. Management now expects average recoveries of 75–80% in 2026 (similar to H2 2025 levels).
Commissioning Delay and Capitalized Costs Shifting to Expense
Florence SX/EW plant commissioning took a few weeks longer than planned delaying initial cathode harvests. CAD 60 million of site operating and commissioning costs were capitalized in Q4; with cathode production underway, these and future operating costs will begin to be expensed, which may impact near-term reported operating results during ramp-up.
Hedging/Collar Mark-to-Market Impact
Copper price collars used to support Florence project finance include a ceiling of USD 5.40/lb until end of June (had a mark of CAD 22 million at year-end). While collars protect downside, they also cap near-term upside until expiry and have produced unrealized liability marks that required adjustment in reported results.
Company Guidance
Management guided that Florence has started electrowinning and is expected to produce ~30–35 million pounds of copper in 2026, with drilling ramping from 3 to 4 rigs and a plan to add ~80–100 new wells per year; Florence final commercial capex was US$275 million (~3% over the revised budget), Q4 capex was US$8 million and Q4 capitalized site/commissioning costs were US$60 million. Gibraltar is forecast to produce 110–115 million pounds of copper in 2026 (±5% through 2028) with average recoveries of 75–80%, design throughput ~85,000 tpd (~30+ Mtpa) and a Connector‑pit reserve grade of ~0.25% (management is modeling 5–10% lower conservatively); Q4 Gibraltar delivered 31 Mm lbs Cu at 0.26% head grade and 81% recovery (800k lbs Mo), with 2025 totals of 98 Mm lbs Cu and 1.9 Mm lbs Mo at a cost of US$2.66/lb (Q4 US$2.47/lb). Financially, Q4 copper sales were 32 Mm lbs at an average realized US$5.13/lb (2025 avg US$4.61/lb), Q4 revenue was US$244m (including US$25m moly), Q4 adjusted EBITDA US$116m (FY US$230m), Q4 cash flow from operations US$101m (Gibraltar free cash flow US$72m; FY Gibraltar cash flow US$220m), liquidity was C$188m cash + US$110m undrawn (~C$340m), and hedges include a Florence ceiling of US$5.40/lb to end‑June (year‑end mark US$22m) plus Q3‑2026 collars with a US$4.75/lb floor on 8 Mm lbs/month and ceilings to US$7.50–8.50/lb.Taseko Mines Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Revenue growth is solid, but recent profitability and cash generation are weak: net losses in 2024–2025, elevated leverage (debt above equity), and a sharp 2025 free-cash-flow reversal to -$282M after +$149M in 2024.Income Statement
Revenue has expanded meaningfully over the cycle (2025: $673M vs. 2020: $343M), with a strong 2025 growth rate of 12.8%. Profitability, however, has been volatile: the company swung from solid profits in 2023 (net margin ~15.8%) to losses in 2024 and 2025 (net margins ~-2.2% and ~-4.5%). Operating profitability remains positive (2025 operating margin ~16.1% and cash-like earnings margin ~31.8%), but the inability to convert this into net profit in the last two years weighs on the score.56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage is elevated, with debt running above equity across the period (2025 debt-to-equity ~1.12; 2024 ~1.57), which increases sensitivity to commodity and execution swings. A positive offset is that equity has grown materially by 2025 ($779M vs. $503M in 2024), improving the balance-sheet cushion. Still, returns to shareholders have been inconsistent, turning negative in 2024–2025 after a strong 2023.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened recently: operating cash flow fell to $146M in 2025 from $233M in 2024, and it covered less of accounting earnings quality needs in 2025 versus 2024 (coverage ~0.64 vs. ~1.12). Most importantly, free cash flow swung sharply negative in 2025 (-$282M) after being positive in 2024 (+$149M), indicating heavy spending and/or working-capital pressure. While positive free cash flow has been achievable in several prior years, the 2025 reversal raises near-term funding and volatility risk.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 673.17M | 608.09M | 524.97M | 391.61M | 433.28M |
| Gross Profit | 141.44M | 117.16M | 207.35M | 54.23M | 163.81M |
| EBITDA | 213.85M | 170.94M | 233.23M | 71.62M | 176.63M |
| Net Income | -30.08M | -13.44M | 82.73M | -25.97M | 36.47M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.47B | 2.20B | 1.57B | 1.28B | 1.18B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 190.37M | 173.63M | 97.81M | 123.43M | 239.88M |
| Total Debt | 870.62M | 790.57M | 637.89M | 586.57M | 533.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.69B | 1.69B | 1.13B | 922.27M | 824.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 778.66M | 503.22M | 434.15M | 356.41M | 358.52M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -282.15M | 149.48M | 33.16M | 1.59M | 87.04M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 146.12M | 232.62M | 151.09M | 81.27M | 174.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -425.84M | -317.89M | -167.60M | -166.41M | -147.71M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 297.94M | 157.16M | -7.05M | -35.24M | 125.79M |
Taseko Mines Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.99
Price Trends
9.95
Positive
8.20
Positive
6.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.42
Positive
51.05
Neutral
76.80
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TKO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.20, above the 50-day MA of 9.95, and above the 200-day MA of 6.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:TKO.
Taseko Mines Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | C$928.66M | 14.93 | 32.23% | 4.11% | 10.41% | -0.23% | |
74 Outperform | C$1.69B | 6.52 | 20.90% | ― | 45.15% | 449.29% | |
69 Neutral | C$4.38B | 14.57 | 17.26% | ― | 29.97% | 658.38% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | C$4.08B | -83.57 | -4.60% | ― | 1.17% | -169.37% | |
59 Neutral | C$1.72B | -39.35 | -6.09% | ― | ― | 22.26% | |
52 Neutral | C$1.36B | -22.90 | -15.90% | ― | ― | -104.52% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
10.99
7.84
248.89%
TSE:ARG
Amerigo Resources
5.77
4.02
230.66%
TSE:MARI
Marimaca Copper
10.19
4.78
88.35%
TSE:III
Imperial Metals
9.49
7.18
309.94%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
42.06
24.32
137.09%
TSE:ASCU
Arizona Sonoran Copper Co.
8.22
6.25
317.26%
Taseko Mines Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Taseko Mines Boosts Q4 Results and Starts Copper Production at Florence Project
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Taseko Mines reported 2025 revenues of $673 million from the sale of 99 million pounds of copper and 1.9 million pounds of molybdenum, with adjusted EBITDA of $230 million and adjusted net income of $27 million despite a reported net loss. The Gibraltar mine delivered 98 million pounds of copper at a C1 cost of US$2.66 per pound, with production and recoveries improving markedly in the second half, while higher molybdenum grades in the Connector Pit boosted by-product output.
Fourth-quarter performance was particularly strong, with adjusted EBITDA of $116 million, $101 million in operating cash flow, and 31 million pounds of copper production at Gibraltar, supported by the restart of the site’s SX/EW plant. Management expects Gibraltar to increase copper output to 110–115 million pounds in 2026 and generate significantly stronger cash flows as copper prices run about 25% above 2025 realized levels.
Operationally, a key milestone was the commencement of copper cathode production at the Florence Copper project, where the SX/EW plant is fully operational and wellfield performance has met or exceeded expectations. Taseko is ramping up drilling and wellfield expansion to target 30–35 million pounds of copper production from Florence in 2026, marking the company’s transition to a two-mine producer and underpinning longer-term growth alongside its Yellowhead and New Prosperity projects.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TKO) stock is a Buy with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Taseko Mines stock, see the TSE:TKO Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.