Ero Copper (ERO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$2.05B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 397.88K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 69.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.45
• Revenue Growth: 16.82%
• EPS Growth: -67.73%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,690
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 103,572,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 458,593
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 397,876
• PEG Ratio: 0.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -15.65
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.17
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.27
• 1Y Price Target: C$26.00
• Price Target Upside: 31.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: C$21.00 ▲(5.90%Upside)

Ero Copper's score is influenced by moderate financial performance and technical challenges, despite positive strategic progress and liquidity highlighted in the earnings call. Valuation concerns also weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Commercial Production

ERO declared commercial production at Tucuma, which confirms the operation is ramping and will drive a step-change in ERO's copper production and free cash flow generation.

Profitability

Tucuma has high grades and recoveries with a low strip ratio, making it a highly profitable mine at current copper prices.

Valuation

The stock is trading at a P/NAV of 0.76x, below its historical multiple, indicating a potential buying opportunity.

Negative Factors

Guidance Reduction

The company updated its 2025 copper production guidance to 75-85Kt, below the previous 95-105Kt, due to expected ramp-up of Tucumã.

Operational Challenges

2024 production results were below previous guidance, primarily due to Tucumã's ramp-up challenges, including power disruptions and tailings filtration circuit issues.

Production Miss

Q2 production missed expectations as ERO produced 6.4kt copper, below the consensus of 9.2kt, due to repairs and modifications to the process plant.

Ero Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ero Copper Corp., a base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. It engages in the production and sale of copper concentrate from the MCSA Mining Complex located within the Curaçá Valley, northeastern Bahia state, as well as gold and silver byproducts. The company also holds a 100% interest in the Boa Esperança property, a copper development project located within southeastern Pará state; and NX Gold property located in Mato Grosso state. Ero Copper Corp. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Ero Copper generates revenue primarily through the extraction, production, and sale of copper concentrate. The company extracts copper ore from its mines and processes it into concentrate, which is then sold to various customers, including smelters and commodity traders. Ero Copper's earnings are significantly influenced by the global price of copper, which can fluctuate based on market demand, geopolitical factors, and economic conditions. Additionally, the company engages in exploration activities to discover new mineral deposits, which can potentially enhance its resource base and future revenue streams. Strategic partnerships with local and international entities may also play a role in the company's operational and financial outcomes, although specific partnerships were not detailed in the available data.

Ero Copper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ero Copper faces challenges with low net profit margins and negative free cash flow despite moderate operational efficiency. The stable balance sheet suggests potential if profitability and cash flow improve.

Income Statement

Ero Copper shows a mixed performance in profitability and growth. The TTM gross profit margin is healthy at 41.85%, and EBIT margin is robust at 31.20%. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.86%, indicating challenges in achieving profitability despite strong operational efficiency. Revenue growth from the previous year is 4.10%, reflecting moderate growth in a competitive market.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.93, indicating a balanced use of debt, but the equity ratio of 42.36% suggests a stable reliance on equity financing. Return on equity is low at 2.65%, pointing to inefficient use of equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges in liquidity management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 10.25, indicating good cash generative capability relative to profits. However, free cash flow is negative, which could constrain future investments and growth opportunities.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	470.26M	427.48M	426.39M	489.92M	324.08M
Gross Profit	180.55M	156.84M	187.18M	318.86M	188.14M
EBITDA	13.78M	208.15M	206.48M	289.80M	110.92M
Net Income	-68.47M	92.80M	101.83M	201.05M	51.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.46B	1.51B	1.19B	689.76M	497.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	50.40M	111.74M	317.40M	130.13M	62.51M
Total Debt	620.07M	445.84M	429.02M	66.36M	169.85M
Total Liabilities	866.95M	702.36M	645.91M	294.27M	283.02M
Stockholders Equity	587.13M	804.25M	538.59M	393.06M	212.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-192.17M	-297.55M	-152.43M	182.76M	45.03M
Operating Cash Flow	145.42M	163.10M	143.39M	364.59M	162.84M
Investing Cash Flow	-335.38M	-308.17M	-425.81M	-179.53M	-116.56M
Financing Cash Flow	131.16M	77.75M	327.30M	-115.43M	288.00K

Ero Copper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 19.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ERO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.17, below the 50-day MA of 20.68, and below the 200-day MA of 20.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:ERO.

Ero Copper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERO	58 Neutral	C$2.05B	69.93	2.54%	―	16.82%	-67.73%
Sector *	44 Neutral	AU$1.51B	-6.04	-41.37%	3.88%	-3.45%	-43.04%
HBM	―	$4.08B	26.51	6.50%	0.14%	―	―
TGB	―	$1.09B	10.75	-12.40%	―	―	―
LUNMF	―	$8.95B	24.68	2.66%	2.04%	―	―
CSCCF	―	$4.57B	55.99	2.71%	―	―	―
FQVLF	―	$14.93B	108.33	1.22%	―	―	―

Ero Copper Corporate Events

Ero Copper Completes Phase 1 Drilling at Furnas Project, Extends Mineralization

Ero Copper has successfully completed its Phase 1 drill program at the Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Brazil, revealing significant down-dip intercepts that extend the known limits of mineralization. The results demonstrate strong continuity of high-grade mineralization, with potential implications for large-scale underground mining operations. The ongoing Phase 2 drill program aims to further extend mineralization, with the complete results from Phase 1 serving as a foundation for an updated mineral resource estimate and a preliminary economic assessment, expected in the first half of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Buy with a C$25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.

Ero Copper to Announce Q2 2025 Results, Hosts Conference Call

Ero Copper Corp announced it will release its second quarter 2025 operating and financial results on July 31, 2025, after market close. The company will host a conference call the following day to discuss the results, providing stakeholders with insights into its operational and financial performance. This announcement is significant as it will offer updates on Ero Copper’s growth trajectory and market positioning, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Buy with a C$39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.

Ero Copper Corp Announces AGM Voting Results, Reaffirms Governance

Ero Copper Corp announced the results of its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, where 85.44% of its common shares were represented. Shareholders approved all items, including the re-election of ten directors, the appointment of KPMG LLP as auditors, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. These approvals reflect strong shareholder support and are likely to positively impact the company’s governance and strategic direction.