Ero Copper (TSE:ERO)
TSX:ERO
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Ero Copper
(TSX:ERO)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
C$45.00
▲(7.27% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (strong 2025 profitability rebound, better leverage, and positive free cash flow) and a constructive earnings-call outlook (operational momentum, deleveraging plan, and strong Furnas PEA). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and ongoing cyclicality/cash-flow volatility risk, despite a relatively modest P/E valuation.
Positive Factors
Profitability Rebound
A material rebound in revenue and sustained margin expansion through 2025 signals stronger operating gearing and improved unit economics. Durable higher margins enhance cash generation capacity across cycles, enabling funding of projects, deleveraging and reinvestment even when copper prices soften moderately.
Negative Factors
Earnings Cyclicality
Large year‑to‑year swings in earnings and free cash flow indicate high sensitivity to copper prices, grade variability and capex timing. This cyclicality undermines predictability of returns and can force reactive financing or deferred investment in down cycles, increasing execution risk for long-term plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Profitability Rebound
A material rebound in revenue and sustained margin expansion through 2025 signals stronger operating gearing and improved unit economics. Durable higher margins enhance cash generation capacity across cycles, enabling funding of projects, deleveraging and reinvestment even when copper prices soften moderately.
Read all positive factors
Ero Copper (ERO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)462.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.9
Beta (1Y)2.08
Revenue Growth29.97%
EPS Growth658.38%
CountryCA
Employees3,690
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.44
Shares Outstanding104,277,970
10 Day Avg. Volume289,533
30 Day Avg. Volume462,671
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)3.14
Price to Sales (P/S)3.67
P/FCF Ratio32.14
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$48.84Price Target Upside16.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)4.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.26B
Ero Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ero Copper Corp., a base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. It engages in the production and sale of copper concentrate from the MCSA Mining Complex located within the Curaç...
How the Company Makes Money
Ero Copper primarily makes money by mining copper-bearing ore, processing it into copper concentrate, and selling that concentrate to third-party customers (typically smelters/traders) under offtake sales arrangements. Revenue is generally recogni...
Ero Copper Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful operational and financial progress: record quarterly revenue and EBITDA, several production records across mines, a successful gold concentrate program, improved liquidity and materially lower leverage, and a highly economic Furnas PEA that materially strengthens long‑term growth prospects. Offsetting these positives are operational disruptions (OEM part quality, pulled-forward maintenance), higher logistics and TC/RC costs, rainy‑season constraints on gold concentrate shipments, and resource conversion risk at Furnas (high inferred proportion). On balance, the positive operational momentum, strong Q4 financial performance, clear deleveraging plan and a robust Furnas PEA outweigh the near-term operational and seasonal challenges.Positive Updates
Furnas PEA Delivers Strong Economics
Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for Furnas: expected to produce >1.2 million tonnes of copper, 2 million ounces of gold and 9 million ounces of silver over a 24-year mine life. Over first 15 years: ~70,000 t Cu/year, ~111,000 oz Au/year and >500,000 oz Ag/year at first-quartile C1 cash costs of ~$0.24/lb Cu. PEA returns: after-tax NPV ≈ $2 billion and IRR >27% on ~$1.3 billion initial capital.
Negative Updates
Unplanned Downtime and Mill Liner Issue at Tucumã
Extended unplanned downtime in December at Tucumã due to an OEM wear-part quality issue; ~10 days of downtime were pulled into Q4 (originally planned for Q1). Accelerated expensing of unamortized mill liners increased Tucumã C1 by ≈$0.10/lb in Q4.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Furnas PEA Delivers Strong Economics
Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for Furnas: expected to produce >1.2 million tonnes of copper, 2 million ounces of gold and 9 million ounces of silver over a 24-year mine life. Over first 15 years: ~70,000 t Cu/year, ~111,000 oz Au/year and >500,000 oz Ag/year at first-quartile C1 cash costs of ~$0.24/lb Cu. PEA returns: after-tax NPV ≈ $2 billion and IRR >27% on ~$1.3 billion initial capital.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ero guided 2026 consolidated copper production of 67,500–77,500 tonnes (weighted to H2, with Q1 the softest quarter), assuming sustained Q4 operational performance, with consolidated throughput just below ~3.0 million tonnes and average plant copper grade ~1.3–1.4% for the year; Xavantina mine production guidance is 40,000–50,000 ounces of gold (Q1 modest due to rainy season and ventilation tie‑in; gold concentrate sales expected to be relatively modest in Q1), and the company plans 50,000 metres of exploration drilling in 2026 (largely at Furnas). Management noted near‑term projects not included in guidance: additional tailings filtration at Tucumã (equipment ordered, expected to benefit in Q4 with a 1–2 quarter payback) and mine/ventilation investments at Xavantina; Q4 operating metrics cited as the baseline included Caraíba mill throughput ~1.2 Mt (Q4 record, +18% q/q) with Caraíba C1 $2.27/lb, Tucumã Q4 copper +22% q/q with C1 $1.75/lb (≈$0.10/lb due to accelerated liner amortization), Xavantina Q4 production +53% q/q and an incremental 15,000 oz of gold concentrate in Q4 (Xavantina ~20,000 oz in Q4, >50,000 oz for FY), consolidated adjusted EBITDA $186.7M in Q4 ($409.7M FY), adjusted net income $108.4M Q4 ($1.04/share) and $220.4M FY ($2.12/share), liquidity $150.4M (cash $105.4M + $45M undrawn), net debt ≈$502M with net debt/EBITDA 1.2x (target <1.0x) and a plan to fully repay the $155M revolver in 2026 before commencing return‑of‑capital.Ero Copper Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 799.60M | 470.26M | 427.48M | 426.39M | 489.92M |
| Gross Profit | 345.51M | 180.55M | 156.84M | 187.18M | 318.86M |
| EBITDA | 410.40M | 13.78M | 208.15M | 206.48M | 289.80M |
| Net Income | 268.34M | -68.47M | 92.80M | 101.83M | 201.05M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.92B | 1.46B | 1.51B | 1.19B | 689.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 105.25M | 50.40M | 111.74M | 317.40M | 130.13M |
| Total Debt | 631.20M | 620.07M | 445.84M | 429.02M | 66.36M |
| Total Liabilities | 984.22M | 866.95M | 702.36M | 645.91M | 294.27M |
| Stockholders Equity | 933.83M | 587.13M | 804.25M | 538.59M | 393.06M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 91.22M | -192.17M | -297.55M | -152.43M | 182.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 358.57M | 145.42M | 163.10M | 143.39M | 364.59M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -283.47M | -335.38M | -308.17M | -425.81M | -179.53M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -17.29M | 131.16M | 77.75M | 327.30M | -115.43M |
Ero Copper Technical Analysis
Positive
41.95
Price Trends
40.79
Positive
38.87
Positive
31.37
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
63.04
Neutral
93.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ERO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.36, above the 50-day MA of 40.79, and above the 200-day MA of 31.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ERO.
Ero Copper Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | C$13.05B | 13.57 | 19.30% | 0.07% | 5.40% | 413.48% | |
71 Outperform | C$32.44B | 14.08 | 21.95% | 0.68% | -19.68% | -90.05% | |
65 Neutral | C$4.37B | 10.93 | 31.58% | ― | 29.97% | 658.38% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | C$3.65B | -83.57 | -5.02% | ― | 1.17% | -169.37% | |
59 Neutral | C$9.08B | 23.80 | 9.77% | ― | 44.69% | 1216.12% | |
53 Neutral | C$31.34B | 223.31 | -0.24% | ― | 8.17% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
41.95
26.90
178.74%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
32.89
23.12
236.64%
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
9.99
7.21
259.35%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
37.96
27.62
267.08%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
11.89
5.80
95.24%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
37.57
20.62
121.65%
Ero Copper Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Ero Copper Sets Date for Q1 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Apr 1, 2026
Ero Copper Corp. will release its first-quarter 2026 operating and financial results on May 4, 2026, after market close, and will hold a conference call and webcast the following day to discuss the performance. The scheduled disclosure and investo...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ero Copper Files NI 43-101 Technical Report for Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Brazil
Positive
Mar 30, 2026
Ero Copper has filed a Technical Report supporting the Preliminary Economic Assessment for its Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Brazil’s Carajás Mineral Province. The report, prepared under Canadian NI 43-101 standards and made available o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.