Ero Copper (ERO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.38B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 291.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 79.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: 16.82%
• EPS Growth: -67.73%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,690
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 103,572,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 293,143
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 291,694
• PEG Ratio: -0.24
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -8.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.76
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.81
• 1Y Price Target: $26.44
• Price Target Upside: 16.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: C$23.50 ▲(3.71%Upside)

Ero Copper's overall stock score reflects a mixture of moderate financial performance, strong technical momentum, and high valuation concerns. Key strengths include robust operational efficiency and strategic progress, while challenges in profitability, cash flow, and production pose risks. Positive earnings call sentiment and shareholder support provide additional confidence in the company's direction.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Adjusted EBITDA of $63M beat analyst estimates of $27M and consensus of $57M.

Financial Performance

High gold prices are supporting the bottom line at Xavantina, enhancing the company's financial performance.

Valuation

The stock is trading at a P/NAV of 0.76x, below its historical multiple, indicating a potential buying opportunity.

Negative Factors

Cost Management

Results were weaker at both Caraiba and Xavantina, mostly due to higher-than-expected costs.

Operational Performance

Operational challenges and guidance reduction have led to recent underperformance for Ero Copper.

Production Challenges

2024 production results were below previous guidance, primarily due to Tucumã's ramp-up challenges, including power disruptions and tailings filtration circuit issues.

Ero Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ero Copper Corp., a base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mining projects in Brazil. It engages in the production and sale of copper concentrate from the MCSA Mining Complex located within the Curaçá Valley, northeastern Bahia state, as well as gold and silver byproducts. The company also holds a 100% interest in the Boa Esperança property, a copper development project located within southeastern Pará state; and NX Gold property located in Mato Grosso state. Ero Copper Corp. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Ero Copper makes money through the extraction, processing, and sale of copper ore. The company's revenue is primarily generated from the sale of copper concentrate, which is sold under long-term contracts to various smelters and traders around the world. In addition to copper, Ero Copper also produces and sells gold and silver by-products, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global copper prices, production efficiency, and the successful expansion and development of its mining projects in Brazil.

Ero Copper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ero Copper's financial performance is moderate with strong operational efficiency but challenges in profitability and cash flow. Despite a healthy gross profit margin and EBIT margin, the low net profit margin and negative free cash flow pose risks to long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Ero Copper shows a mixed performance in profitability and growth. The TTM gross profit margin is healthy at 41.85%, and EBIT margin is robust at 31.20%. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.86%, indicating challenges in achieving profitability despite strong operational efficiency. Revenue growth from the previous year is 4.10%, reflecting moderate growth in a competitive market.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.93, indicating a balanced use of debt, but the equity ratio of 42.36% suggests a stable reliance on equity financing. Return on equity is low at 2.65%, pointing to inefficient use of equity to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows challenges in liquidity management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 10.25, indicating good cash generative capability relative to profits. However, free cash flow is negative, which could constrain future investments and growth opportunities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	489.55M	470.26M	427.48M	426.39M	489.92M	324.08M
Gross Profit	204.90M	180.55M	156.84M	187.18M	318.86M	188.14M
EBITDA	194.47M	13.78M	208.15M	206.48M	289.80M	110.92M
Net Income	18.89M	-68.47M	92.80M	101.83M	201.05M	51.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.69B	1.46B	1.51B	1.19B	689.76M	497.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	80.57M	50.40M	111.74M	317.40M	130.13M	62.51M
Total Debt	664.73M	620.07M	445.84M	429.02M	66.36M	169.85M
Total Liabilities	967.02M	866.95M	702.36M	645.91M	294.27M	283.02M
Stockholders Equity	713.89M	587.13M	804.25M	538.59M	393.06M	212.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-95.71M	-192.17M	-297.55M	-152.43M	182.76M	45.03M
Operating Cash Flow	193.63M	145.42M	163.10M	143.39M	364.59M	162.84M
Investing Cash Flow	-287.35M	-335.38M	-308.17M	-425.81M	-179.53M	-116.56M
Financing Cash Flow	124.08M	131.16M	77.75M	327.30M	-115.43M	288.00K

Ero Copper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.66
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ERO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.88, above the 50-day MA of 20.10, and above the 200-day MA of 20.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.87 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.85 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ERO.

Ero Copper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERO	64 Neutral	$2.38B	79.91	2.54%	―	16.82%	-67.73%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$10.29B	9.96	-0.15%	2.86%	2.14%	-32.15%
HBM		$4.33B	28.15	6.50%	0.13%	―	―
TGB		$1.06B	10.75	-12.40%	―	―	―
LUNMF		$9.37B	24.68	2.66%	2.18%	―	―
CSCCF		$4.98B	61.05	2.71%	―	―	―
FQVLF		$15.40B	111.23	1.22%	―	―	―

Ero Copper Corporate Events

Ero Copper to Announce Q2 2025 Results, Hosts Conference Call

Ero Copper Corp announced it will release its second quarter 2025 operating and financial results on July 31, 2025, after market close. The company will host a conference call the following day to discuss the results, providing stakeholders with insights into its operational and financial performance. This announcement is significant as it will offer updates on Ero Copper’s growth trajectory and market positioning, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Buy with a C$39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.

Ero Copper Corp Announces AGM Voting Results, Reaffirms Governance

Ero Copper Corp announced the results of its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, where 85.44% of its common shares were represented. Shareholders approved all items, including the re-election of ten directors, the appointment of KPMG LLP as auditors, and an advisory vote on executive compensation. These approvals reflect strong shareholder support and are likely to positively impact the company’s governance and strategic direction.