Ero Copper (ERO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.15B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 328.17K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.55
• Revenue Growth: 24.05%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,690
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 66
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.64
• Shares Outstanding: 103,601,440
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 369,303
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 328,170
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.96
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 13.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.19
• 1Y Price Target: $25.84
• Price Target Upside: 22.12% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$22.00 ▲(3.97% Upside)

Ero Copper's overall score is driven by a positive earnings call and strong valuation, indicating potential for future growth. However, liquidity challenges and neutral technical indicators slightly temper the outlook.

Positive Factors

Production and Cash Flow

ERO declared commercial production at Tucuma, which confirms the operation is ramping and will drive a step-change in ERO's copper production and free cash flow generation.

Profitability

Tucuma has high grades and recoveries with a low strip ratio, making it a highly profitable mine at current copper prices.

Valuation

The stock is trading at a P/NAV of 0.76x, below its historical multiple, indicating a potential buying opportunity.

Negative Factors

Cost Management

Results were weaker at both Caraiba and Xavantina, mostly due to higher-than-expected costs.

Earnings

Ero Copper reported 4Q24 results and EBITDA of US$59.1mn, missing estimates by 13% and were 12% below Bloomberg consensus.

Production Miss

Q2 production missed expectations as ERO produced 6.4kt copper, below the consensus of 9.2kt, due to repairs and modifications to the process plant.

Ero Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ero Copper Corp. is a Canadian-based mining company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Brazil. The company primarily operates in the copper sector, focusing on high-quality copper production through its flagship asset, the MCSA Mining Complex, which includes the Vale do Curaçá property. Ero Copper is committed to sustainable mining practices and strives to deliver value through responsible resource management and community engagement.

How the Company Makes Money

Ero Copper generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of copper concentrate, which contains copper, gold, and silver. The company's main revenue stream comes from the sale of copper, with significant contributions from by-products like gold and silver. Ero Copper benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales to various customers, including smelters and traders. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the global demand for copper, which is driven by its use in various industries such as construction, electronics, and renewable energy. Additionally, Ero Copper's operational efficiencies, cost management strategies, and favorable pricing conditions in the metals market further enhance its profitability.

Ero Copper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ero Copper demonstrates strong revenue growth and profitability, with a solid income statement. However, cash flow challenges, particularly in free cash flow, indicate potential liquidity risks that need addressing to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

Ero Copper shows strong revenue growth with a 9.48% increase in TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin of 42.71% and net profit margin of 26.62% reflect solid profitability. However, the EBIT margin of 32.93% and EBITDA margin of 48.91% suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity of 20.12% is robust, showcasing effective use of equity. However, the equity ratio of 46.45% suggests a balanced but slightly leveraged capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong, with a coverage ratio of 1.27, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow and its significant decline of 83.06% in TTM highlight potential liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio of -6.02% suggests inefficiencies in converting income to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	535.97M	470.26M	427.48M	426.39M	489.92M	324.08M
Gross Profit	228.89M	180.55M	156.84M	187.18M	318.86M	188.14M
EBITDA	262.15M	13.78M	208.15M	206.48M	289.80M	110.92M
Net Income	142.69M	-68.47M	92.80M	101.83M	201.05M	51.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.77B	1.46B	1.51B	1.19B	689.76M	497.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	68.30M	50.40M	111.74M	317.40M	130.13M	62.51M
Total Debt	653.25M	620.07M	445.84M	429.02M	66.36M	169.85M
Total Liabilities	943.49M	866.95M	702.36M	645.91M	294.27M	283.02M
Stockholders Equity	823.30M	587.13M	804.25M	538.59M	393.06M	212.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.21M	-192.17M	-297.55M	-152.43M	182.76M	45.03M
Operating Cash Flow	269.17M	145.42M	163.10M	143.39M	364.59M	162.84M
Investing Cash Flow	-283.29M	-335.38M	-308.17M	-425.81M	-179.53M	-116.56M
Financing Cash Flow	36.71M	131.16M	77.75M	327.30M	-115.43M	288.00K

Ero Copper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 21.16
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ERO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.67, above the 50-day MA of 20.07, and above the 200-day MA of 19.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ERO.

Ero Copper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERO	71 Outperform	$2.15B	10.73	19.31%	―	24.05%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.37B	6.45	-0.08%	2.84%	3.09%	-36.03%
HBM	―	$5.05B	17.37	10.81%	0.11%	―	―
TGB	―	$1.06B	10.75	-5.19%	―	―	―
LUNMF	―	$10.27B	24.68	2.61%	1.64%	―	―
CSCCF	―	$5.47B	72.79	2.51%	―	―	―
FQVLF	―	$14.82B	73.12	1.79%	―	―	―

Ero Copper Corporate Events

Ero Copper Completes Phase 1 Drilling at Furnas Project, Extends Mineralization

Ero Copper has successfully completed its Phase 1 drill program at the Furnas Copper-Gold Project in Brazil, revealing significant down-dip intercepts that extend the known limits of mineralization. The results demonstrate strong continuity of high-grade mineralization, with potential implications for large-scale underground mining operations. The ongoing Phase 2 drill program aims to further extend mineralization, with the complete results from Phase 1 serving as a foundation for an updated mineral resource estimate and a preliminary economic assessment, expected in the first half of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Buy with a C$25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.

Ero Copper to Announce Q2 2025 Results, Hosts Conference Call

Ero Copper Corp announced it will release its second quarter 2025 operating and financial results on July 31, 2025, after market close. The company will host a conference call the following day to discuss the results, providing stakeholders with insights into its operational and financial performance. This announcement is significant as it will offer updates on Ero Copper’s growth trajectory and market positioning, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Buy with a C$39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.