Ero Copper (ERO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.22B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 487.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.94
• Revenue Growth: 29.97%
• EPS Growth: 658.38%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,690
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 103,890,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 497,045
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 487,548
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.96
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$33.89
• Price Target Upside: 8.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.07B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: C$31.00 ▼(-0.64% Downside)

Ero Copper's strong earnings call and solid financial performance are the primary drivers of its score. The company's strategic improvements and record production are positive indicators, although cash flow challenges and cost pressures present risks. Technical analysis shows mixed signals, and the valuation is reasonable.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates expanding market presence and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term financial health.

Operational Efficiency

Mechanized mining enhances safety and productivity, potentially increasing output and reducing costs over time, strengthening competitive position.

Deleveraging Efforts

Reducing leverage enhances financial flexibility and reduces risk, supporting sustainable growth and resilience against market fluctuations.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Weak cash flow conversion can limit reinvestment and operational flexibility, posing a risk to long-term financial stability and growth.

Cost Pressures

Rising costs can erode margins and profitability, challenging the company's ability to maintain competitive pricing and operational efficiency.

Production Guidance

Lower production guidance could impact revenue and market perception, potentially limiting growth opportunities and investor confidence.

Ero Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ero Copper Corp. is a Canadian-based mining company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties in Brazil. The company primarily operates in the copper sector, focusing on high-quality copper production through its flagship asset, the MCSA Mining Complex, which includes the Vale do Curaçá property. Ero Copper is committed to sustainable mining practices and strives to deliver value through responsible resource management and community engagement.

How the Company Makes Money

Ero Copper generates revenue primarily through the production and sale of copper concentrate, which contains copper, gold, and silver. The company's main revenue stream comes from the sale of copper, with significant contributions from by-products like gold and silver. Ero Copper benefits from long-term contracts and spot market sales to various customers, including smelters and traders. Key factors contributing to its earnings include the global demand for copper, which is driven by its use in various industries such as construction, electronics, and renewable energy. Additionally, Ero Copper's operational efficiencies, cost management strategies, and favorable pricing conditions in the metals market further enhance its profitability.

Ero Copper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ero Copper demonstrates solid revenue growth and profitability, with a strong income statement and moderate leverage. However, cash flow challenges, particularly in free cash flow, indicate potential liquidity risks.

Income Statement

Ero Copper shows strong revenue growth with a 9.48% increase in TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin of 42.71% and net profit margin of 26.62% reflect solid profitability. However, the EBIT margin of 32.93% and EBITDA margin of 48.91% suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity of 20.12% is robust, showcasing effective use of equity. However, the equity ratio of 46.45% suggests a balanced but slightly leveraged capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong, with a coverage ratio of 1.27, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow and its significant decline of 83.06% in TTM highlight potential liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio of -6.02% suggests inefficiencies in converting income to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	535.97M	470.26M	427.48M	426.39M	489.92M	324.08M
Gross Profit	228.89M	180.55M	156.84M	187.18M	318.86M	188.14M
EBITDA	262.15M	13.78M	208.15M	206.48M	289.80M	110.92M
Net Income	142.69M	-68.47M	92.80M	101.83M	201.05M	51.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.77B	1.46B	1.51B	1.19B	689.76M	497.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	68.30M	50.40M	111.74M	317.40M	130.13M	62.51M
Total Debt	653.25M	620.07M	445.84M	429.02M	66.36M	169.85M
Total Liabilities	943.49M	866.95M	702.36M	645.91M	294.27M	283.02M
Stockholders Equity	823.30M	587.13M	804.25M	538.59M	393.06M	212.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.21M	-192.17M	-297.55M	-152.43M	182.76M	45.03M
Operating Cash Flow	269.17M	145.42M	163.10M	143.39M	364.59M	162.84M
Investing Cash Flow	-283.29M	-335.38M	-308.17M	-425.81M	-179.53M	-116.56M
Financing Cash Flow	36.71M	131.16M	77.75M	327.30M	-115.43M	288.00K

Ero Copper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 31.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ERO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.06, above the 50-day MA of 27.39, and above the 200-day MA of 21.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ERO.

Ero Copper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HBM	72 Outperform	$9.34B	23.04	10.81%	0.09%	11.90%	221.39%
ERO	69 Neutral	C$3.22B	16.67	17.26%	―	29.97%	658.38%
LUN	67 Neutral	$22.03B	533.61	3.33%	1.04%	-19.68%	-90.05%
CS	67 Neutral	$9.39B	21.64	9.83%	―	44.69%	1216.12%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
FM	61 Neutral	$23.04B	358.24	0.41%	―	8.17%	―
TKO	56 Neutral	$2.32B	―	-5.19%	―	0.10%	-135.33%

Ero Copper Corporate Events

Ero Copper Reports Q3 2025 Operational Results

On November 4, 2025, Ero Copper Corp. released its Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting its operational performance. The company reported processing 996,661 tonnes of ore at its Caraíba Operations with a copper grade of 1.01%, resulting in a production of 9,085 tonnes of copper. The copper C1 cash cost was reported at $2.32 per pound. These results indicate a slight decrease in production compared to the previous year, reflecting challenges in maintaining production levels. This performance may impact the company’s market positioning and stakeholder expectations as it navigates operational efficiencies.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Buy with a C$25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.

Ero Copper Commences Gold Concentrate Sales Following Year-Long Initiative

Ero Copper Corp. announced the results of a year-long value-creation initiative at its Xavantina Operations, leading to the commencement of its first gold concentrate sales in the fourth quarter of 2025. This initiative included comprehensive sampling and metallurgical testing, resulting in a maiden inferred mineral resource estimate of approximately 29,000 ounces of high-grade gold concentrate. The company successfully completed initial shipments of 3,000 tonnes of gold concentrate in October 2025 and plans to ramp up sales through the end of the year. Ero Copper’s efforts are expected to significantly bolster gold sales and extend the mine’s life, enhancing its industry positioning and providing promising opportunities for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Buy with a C$25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.

Ero Copper Achieves Key Milestones in 2024 Sustainability Report

Ero Copper Corp. released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting its commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. The report outlines the company’s achievements, including the safe and timely completion of the Tucumã Operation, which began commercial production on July 1, 2025. In 2024, Ero Copper produced 40,600 tonnes of copper and 57,210 ounces of gold, with significant contributions from its Caraíba and Xavantina Operations. The report also details the company’s sustainability goals, stakeholder engagement, and alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. As Ero Copper continues to ramp up production, stakeholders can expect a substantial increase in copper output in 2025, enhancing the company’s market position and operational growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Hold with a C$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.

Ero Copper to Announce Q3 2025 Results

Ero Copper Corp announced that it will release its third quarter 2025 operating and financial results on November 4, 2025, after market close. The company will hold a conference call to discuss these results on November 5, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Buy with a C$34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.

Ero Copper Extends High-Grade Mineralization at Furnas Project

Ero Copper Corp. has announced the completion of its Phase 1 drill program at the Furnas Copper-Gold Project, revealing significant high-grade mineralization that extends the known limits of the deposit to a depth of approximately 950 meters. The results suggest the potential for Furnas to become a large-scale, long-life mining operation, which could significantly enhance the company’s value and growth strategy. The ongoing Phase 2 drill program is expected to conclude ahead of schedule, further supporting the development of an updated mineral resource estimate and a preliminary economic assessment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ERO) stock is a Buy with a C$26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ero Copper stock, see the TSE:ERO Stock Forecast page.

Ero Copper Corp. Highlights Strong Q2 Earnings and Growth Prospects

Ero Copper Corp. Reports Positive Earnings Call with Strong Operational and Financial Performance