Ero Copper (ERO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.60B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 366.53K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.1
• Beta (1Y): 2.07
• Revenue Growth: 29.97%
• EPS Growth: 658.38%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,690
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): 0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 103,890,250
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 367,678
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 366,526
• PEG Ratio: 0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.96
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.80
• 1Y Price Target: $35.07
• Price Target Upside: -1.91% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.17
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.08B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: C$39.00 ▲(9.09% Upside)

Ero Copper's overall score is driven by strong technical indicators and positive earnings call sentiment, highlighting operational and strategic improvements. Financial performance is solid, though cash flow challenges need addressing. Valuation is reasonable, and recent corporate developments add potential for future growth.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates expanding market presence and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term financial health.

Operational Efficiency

Mechanized mining enhances safety and productivity, potentially increasing output and reducing costs over time, strengthening competitive position.

Deleveraging Efforts

Reducing leverage enhances financial flexibility and reduces risk, supporting sustainable growth and resilience against market fluctuations.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Weak cash flow conversion can limit reinvestment and operational flexibility, posing a risk to long-term financial stability and growth.

Cost Pressures

Rising costs can erode margins and profitability, challenging the company's ability to maintain competitive pricing and operational efficiency.

Production Guidance

Lower production guidance could impact revenue and market perception, potentially limiting growth opportunities and investor confidence.

Ero Copper Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ero Copper Corp. is a Canadian-based mining company focused on the acquisition, exploration, and development of copper mining projects in Brazil. The company primarily operates in the mining sector, with its flagship asset being the Boa Esperança project located in the north of Brazil. Ero Copper is dedicated to sustainable mining practices and aims to produce high-quality copper concentrate, contributing to the growing demand for copper driven by the global transition to renewable energy and electric vehicles.

How the Company Makes Money

Ero Copper generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper concentrate produced from its mining operations. The company operates on a revenue model that includes the extraction and processing of copper ore, which is then sold to smelters and other industrial customers. Key revenue streams include the sale of copper, as well as by-products such as gold and silver. Ero Copper benefits from strategic partnerships with industry players and established relationships with customers, which help secure long-term contracts and pricing agreements. Additionally, the company may experience fluctuations in revenue based on copper market prices and demand dynamics, influenced by global economic conditions and industry trends.

Ero Copper Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ero Copper demonstrates solid revenue growth and profitability, supported by a strong income statement. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with effective equity utilization. However, cash flow challenges, particularly in free cash flow, indicate potential liquidity risks that need addressing to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

Ero Copper shows strong revenue growth with a 9.48% increase in TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. The gross profit margin of 42.71% and net profit margin of 26.62% reflect solid profitability. However, the EBIT margin of 32.93% and EBITDA margin of 48.91% suggest room for improvement in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity of 20.12% is robust, showcasing effective use of equity. However, the equity ratio of 46.45% suggests a balanced but slightly leveraged capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong, with a coverage ratio of 1.27, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow and its significant decline of 83.06% in TTM highlight potential liquidity challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio of -6.02% suggests inefficiencies in converting income to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	588.23M	470.26M	427.48M	426.39M	489.92M	324.08M
Gross Profit	233.65M	180.55M	156.84M	187.18M	318.86M	188.14M
EBITDA	292.12M	13.78M	208.15M	206.48M	289.80M	110.92M
Net Income	137.81M	-68.47M	92.80M	101.83M	201.05M	51.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.87B	1.46B	1.51B	1.19B	689.76M	497.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	66.19M	50.40M	111.74M	317.40M	130.13M	62.51M
Total Debt	637.76M	620.07M	445.84M	429.02M	66.36M	169.85M
Total Liabilities	983.86M	866.95M	702.36M	645.91M	294.27M	283.02M
Stockholders Equity	884.28M	587.13M	804.25M	538.59M	393.06M	212.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	32.80M	-192.17M	-297.55M	-152.43M	182.76M	45.03M
Operating Cash Flow	314.02M	145.42M	163.10M	143.39M	364.59M	162.84M
Investing Cash Flow	-285.83M	-335.38M	-308.17M	-425.81M	-179.53M	-116.56M
Financing Cash Flow	24.15M	131.16M	77.75M	327.30M	-115.43M	288.00K

Ero Copper Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 35.75
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ERO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.16, above the 50-day MA of 31.49, and above the 200-day MA of 22.63, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ERO.

Ero Copper Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERO	76 Outperform	$3.60B	19.10	17.26%	―	29.97%	658.38%
HBM	76 Outperform	$9.65B	14.98	16.43%	0.08%	5.40%	413.48%
CS	70 Neutral	$8.93B	20.77	9.83%	―	44.69%	1216.12%
FM	68 Neutral	$23.04B	358.24	0.41%	―	8.17%	―
LUN	67 Neutral	$22.88B	554.77	3.33%	0.74%	-19.68%	-90.05%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKO	58 Neutral	$2.61B	―	-10.53%	―	1.17%	-169.37%

Ero Copper Corporate Events

Ero Copper to Announce Q3 2025 Results

Ero Copper Corp announced that it will release its third quarter 2025 operating and financial results on November 4, 2025, after market close. The company will hold a conference call to discuss these results on November 5, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting investor decisions and market perception.

Ero Copper Extends High-Grade Mineralization at Furnas Project

Ero Copper Corp. has announced the completion of its Phase 1 drill program at the Furnas Copper-Gold Project, revealing significant high-grade mineralization that extends the known limits of the deposit to a depth of approximately 950 meters. The results suggest the potential for Furnas to become a large-scale, long-life mining operation, which could significantly enhance the company’s value and growth strategy. The ongoing Phase 2 drill program is expected to conclude ahead of schedule, further supporting the development of an updated mineral resource estimate and a preliminary economic assessment.