First Quantum Minerals (FM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$34.04B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 527.9
• Beta (1Y): 2.39
• Revenue Growth: 8.17%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 834,206,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,252,249
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,564,938
• PEG Ratio: -53.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$36.82
• Price Target Upside: -9.52% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$46.00 ▲(13.02% Upside)

First Quantum Minerals' stock is supported by strong technical momentum and robust financial performance, particularly in cash flow generation. However, high valuation metrics and operational challenges in Panama and Sentinel present risks. The positive earnings call sentiment and production achievements contribute to a favorable outlook, but the high P/E ratio suggests caution.

Positive Factors

Strong free cash flow growth and cash conversion

A 201% TTM increase in free cash flow and operating cash conversion ratio >1 indicate durable internal funding ability. This strengthens capacity to fund disciplined capex, service debt, and support expansions without reliance on equity, reducing refinancing risk over the medium term.

Kansanshi S3 expansion completed and ramped

Completion and handover of Kansanshi S3 adds permanent processing capacity and supports higher long-term copper output. Incremental capacity lowers unit costs through scale, improves marginal margins and underpins the company’s multi-year production guidance and cash generation profile.

Stronger liquidity and extended debt maturity

The $1bn gold stream plus $1bn notes boosting liquidity to $2.3bn and pushing maturities to 2029 materially reduces short-term refinancing pressure. This enhances balance-sheet flexibility to fund capex, manage working capital and absorb commodity-cycle volatility over coming years.

Negative Factors

Very low net profit margin

A 0.51% net margin shows limited translation of operating performance into attributable earnings. Persistently thin net profitability constrains retained earnings, depresses returns to equity holders and increases sensitivity to commodity price swings, cost inflation or one-off charges.

Regulatory and contractual uncertainty at Cobre Panamá

An environmental audit and unresolved government agreement create material operational and legal risk for a major asset. Prolonged uncertainty can restrict processing of ore, delay production, and impede capital planning, raising the prospect of sustained cash-flow and reserve impacts.

Operational reliability issues and smelter disruption impact

Ongoing mill fatigue and past smelter shutdowns have reduced sales volumes and crystallized extra royalty costs. Recurring reliability problems and regional processing outages raise unit costs and margin volatility, undermining consistent production and long-term cash flow predictability.

First Quantum Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, nickel, pyrite, gold, silver, and zinc ores, as well as produces acid. The company has operating mines located in Zambia, Panama, Finland, Turkey, Spain, Australia, and Mauritania, as well as a development project in Zambia. It is exploring the Taca Taca copper-gold-molybdenum project in Argentina, as well as the Haquira copper deposit in Peru. The company was formerly known as First Quantum Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to First Quantum Minerals Ltd. in July 1996. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

First Quantum Minerals generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper and nickel products. The company sells its copper in various forms, including cathodes and concentrates, to customers in the global market, including smelters and trading companies. The price of copper, which is influenced by global demand and supply dynamics, directly impacts the company's revenue. Additionally, First Quantum also earns income from by-products such as gold and silver, which are extracted during the mining process. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts and spot market sales. The company has established partnerships with various stakeholders, including local governments and other mining companies, which can provide operational synergies and access to additional markets. Factors such as mining efficiency, operational costs, and global commodity prices are significant contributors to its earnings.

First Quantum Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

First Quantum Minerals exhibits strong operational efficiency with healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins, but faces challenges in revenue growth and net profitability. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, and the cash flow statement highlights strong cash generation capabilities.

Income Statement

First Quantum Minerals shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is healthy at 31.17%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 4.08%, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. The revenue growth rate is negative, showing a decline of 10.1% in the TTM, which is concerning. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 24.96% and 38.28% respectively, suggesting good operational efficiency despite revenue challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of First Quantum Minerals is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.54 in the TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is low at 1.78%, suggesting limited profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 47.01%, reflecting a solid equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the company maintains a balanced financial structure with manageable debt levels.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals strong cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow growth rate is impressive at 370.59% in the TTM, indicating significant improvement in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.12, showing robust cash flow relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.32 suggests effective conversion of profits into cash. Overall, the company demonstrates strong cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.53B	4.80B	6.46B	7.63B	7.21B	5.07B
Gross Profit	1.56B	1.35B	1.29B	2.20B	2.56B	1.08B
EBITDA	1.86B	1.62B	2.25B	3.28B	3.55B	2.16B
Net Income	27.89M	2.00M	-954.00M	1.03B	832.00M	-180.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	34.54B	24.11B	23.76B	25.08B	25.27B	24.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.35B	843.00M	1.16B	1.69B	1.86B	950.00M
Total Debt	9.72B	6.37B	7.58B	7.38B	7.91B	8.36B
Total Liabilities	18.40B	12.21B	12.98B	12.84B	13.78B	14.20B
Stockholders Equity	15.77B	11.47B	10.25B	10.90B	10.02B	8.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.69B	365.00M	127.00M	1.17B	1.89B	1.00B
Operating Cash Flow	2.95B	1.65B	1.43B	2.33B	2.88B	1.61B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.32B	-1.29B	-1.38B	-1.17B	-1.10B	-673.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.27B	-501.00M	-776.00M	-1.33B	-841.00M	-543.00M

First Quantum Minerals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 40.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 40.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.84, above the 50-day MA of 32.98, and above the 200-day MA of 25.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.28 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.36 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FM.

First Quantum Minerals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ERO	76 Outperform	C$4.47B	22.13	17.26%	―	29.97%	658.38%
HBM	76 Outperform	C$12.41B	19.23	16.43%	0.07%	5.40%	413.48%
FM	73 Outperform	C$34.04B	527.89	0.41%	―	8.17%	―
CS	73 Outperform	C$10.67B	24.43	9.83%	―	44.69%	1216.12%
LUN	72 Outperform	C$28.87B	692.12	3.33%	0.68%	-19.68%	-90.05%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKO	58 Neutral	C$3.13B	-50.03	-10.53%	―	1.17%	-169.37%

First Quantum Minerals Corporate Events

First Quantum Sets Dates for 2025 Results, Production Update and Guidance

First Quantum Minerals has scheduled the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial and operating results for February 10, 2026, after the close of trading in Toronto, to be followed by a conference call and webcast on February 11. The company will also publish its 2025 preliminary production figures and a new three-year operational guidance update on January 15, 2026, signaling an important checkpoint for investors and other stakeholders as it navigates ongoing operational changes, including the preservation status of Cobre Panamá, care and maintenance at Ravensthorpe, and the continued development of key Latin American growth projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum Minerals to Sell Spanish Las Cruces Mine for Up to $190 Million

First Quantum Minerals has agreed to sell its wholly owned Cobre Las Cruces mine in Spain to Global Panduro, a company controlled by funds managed by Resource Capital Funds, for consideration of up to $190 million plus a profitability‑linked earn-out. The transaction, which includes an upfront cash payment, a loan note, milestone-based deferred payments and contingent earn-out tied to future exit events, is expected to close in the first half of 2026 subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals, marking First Quantum’s exit from the Las Cruces polymetallic redevelopment project and handing its next development phase to a private equity-backed buyer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Hold with a C$33.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum to Sell Spain’s Cobre Las Cruces Mine for Up to $190 Million

First Quantum Minerals has agreed to sell its wholly owned Cobre Las Cruces mine in Spain to Global Panduro, a vehicle controlled by Resource Capital Funds, for consideration of up to $190 million plus a profitability-linked earn-out. The deal structure includes $45 million in cash on closing, a loan note of about $65 million, up to $80 million in deferred milestone payments tied to development of the polymetallic primary sulphide project at the site, and an additional contingent earn-out based on future exit and liquidity events, with closing targeted for the first half of 2026. The transaction marks First Quantum’s exit from the Las Cruces operation, which previously produced copper cathodes and was slated for redevelopment into an underground polymetallic mine, and shifts the project’s future development to Resource Capital Funds, a specialist mining private equity investor, potentially enhancing capital and execution resources for advancing the asset while giving First Quantum financial flexibility and exposure to future upside through deferred and contingent payments.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Hold with a C$33.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum Minerals Reports Q3 2025 Results with Strategic Financial Moves

First Quantum Minerals reported a net loss of $48 million for the third quarter of 2025, despite improvements in production and metal prices. The company made significant strides in strengthening its financial position through a $1 billion gold stream arrangement and bond transactions. Operationally, the Kansanshi S3 Expansion project was successfully completed, and production guidance for copper, gold, and nickel was updated. The company is also working on resolving issues related to the Cobre Panamá mine, with plans to restart the power plant in the fourth quarter.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Hold with a C$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.