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First Quantum Minerals
(OTC:FM)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$38.00
▼(-4.28% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is primarily supported by solid operating profitability and strong free cash flow, alongside improved leverage. This is offset by ongoing net losses (negative P/E) and below-1 cash-flow-to-debt coverage, while technicals are supportive with price strength above major moving averages.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$2.12B TTM) and >$1.0B free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, debt service and working capital in a capital‑intensive mining business. This cash resilience helps the company weather commodity cyclicality and fund project development without constant external financing.
Negative Factors
Negative net income
Persistent below‑the‑line losses despite positive operating cash highlight exposure to non‑operating items, impairments or financing costs. Continued negative net income undermines retained earnings, depresses return on equity and complicates plans for dividends or buybacks until profitability normalizes.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$2.12B TTM) and >$1.0B free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, debt service and working capital in a capital‑intensive mining business. This cash resilience helps the company weather commodity cyclicality and fund project development without constant external financing.
Read all positive factors
First Quantum Minerals (FM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$31.19B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.69
Revenue Growth9.31%
EPS Growth-245.11%
CountryCA
Employees15,661
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.25
Shares Outstanding834,206,100
10 Day Avg. Volume2,732,267
30 Day Avg. Volume2,936,956
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)2.00
Price to Sales (P/S)4.26
P/FCF Ratio48.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$48.52Price Target Upside22.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.51B
First Quantum Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
First Quantum Minerals Ltd., through its associated companies, specializes in the exploration, development, and extraction of mineral resources. Its core business involves seeking out and mining a range of ores, including copper, nickel, pyrite, g...
How the Company Makes Money
First Quantum Minerals primarily makes money by producing and selling mined metals, with revenue largely tied to commodity prices and sales volumes. The company’s main revenue stream is copper sold from its operating mines, typically as copper con...
First Quantum Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented meaningful operational and financial progress — notably the Kansanshi S3 commercial production, record nickel performance, full‑year production meeting guidance, strengthened liquidity and financing moves, and positive credit outlook — which materially improve the company’s growth and financing optionality. However, the quarter also highlighted cost pressures (C1 up 13%), operational interruptions at Sentinel (Q4 copper down 4% QoQ) driven by Ball mill fatigue and weather, significant ongoing care & maintenance costs at Cobre Panama (~$15–17M/month) with further potential restart cash needs (~$250M peak for stockpile processing and $300–$500M potential broader restart), hedge losses (notably ~$220M expected on copper hedges at current spot) and elevated net debt (net debt $5.2B, ~3.3x EBITDA). On balance, the highlights (project delivery, production achievements, financing/liquidity actions and improved credit outlook) outweigh the lowlights, though material risks remain related to costs, leverage and Panama timing.Positive Updates
Kansanshi S3 Expansion Achieves Commercial Production
S3 declared commercial production on December 1 after demonstrating consistent performance at 90% of design capacity within 5 months of initial production. Throughput capacity is 25 million tonnes per annum; S3 is expected to contribute over 84,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, sourced evenly from low‑grade stockpiles and fresh ore.
Negative Updates
Rising Unit Costs
Copper C1 costs rose 13% in Q4 to $2.21 per pound, driven by lower production, higher power, labor and maintenance costs. Management raised copper C1 and all‑in guidance across the 3‑year period to reflect higher costs and inflationary pressures.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Kansanshi S3 Expansion Achieves Commercial Production
S3 declared commercial production on December 1 after demonstrating consistent performance at 90% of design capacity within 5 months of initial production. Throughput capacity is 25 million tonnes per annum; S3 is expected to contribute over 84,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, sourced evenly from low‑grade stockpiles and fresh ore.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights for 2026: Kansanshi is guided to 175,000–205,000 t Cu and 110,000–120,000 oz Au (S3 expected to contribute >84,000 t Cu), Sentinel to 190,000–220,000 t Cu and Enterprise to 30,000–40,000 t Ni; group copper C1/all‑in guidance is ~ $1.95–$2.20/lb for 2026, easing to ~$1.85–$2.10/lb by 2028 (Q4 C1 was $2.21/lb). Hedging remains ~20% hedged for the full year (≈50% H1), with expected mark‑to‑market losses of ≈$220M on copper and $23M on gold at current spot. Cobre Panama: processing of stockpiles could begin ~3 months after formal approval, take ~1 year, yield ~70,000 t Cu, cost $12–$12.50/tonne milled (≈$2.90/lb) with upfront cash outflows peaking around $250M; P&SM runs $15–$17M/month ($45M in Q4, $400M spent to date) and the site is expected to be broadly cash‑flow neutral by year‑end inclusive of P&SM. Balance sheet/capex: net debt was $5.2B, liquidity $1.9B (cash $644M + $1.3B undrawn RCF), a new $1.35B 10‑yr bond and refinancings freed ~ $360M this year, and 2025 CapEx underspend of ~ $240M shifts into 2026 with overall CapEx declining across the 3‑year guidance period.First Quantum Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.43B | 5.24B | 4.80B | 6.46B | 7.63B | 7.21B |
| Gross Profit | 1.39B | 1.46B | 1.35B | 1.29B | 2.20B | 2.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.71B | 1.78B | 1.62B | 2.25B | 3.28B | 3.55B |
| Net Income | -200.40M | -28.00M | 2.00M | -954.00M | 1.03B | 832.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 25.01B | 25.24B | 24.11B | 23.76B | 25.08B | 25.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 770.00M | 716.00M | 843.00M | 1.16B | 1.69B | 1.86B |
| Total Debt | 6.05B | 5.91B | 6.37B | 7.58B | 7.38B | 7.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.62B | 13.70B | 12.21B | 12.98B | 12.84B | 13.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.07B | 11.16B | 11.47B | 10.25B | 10.90B | 10.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.05B | 462.97M | 365.00M | 127.00M | 1.17B | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.12B | 1.62B | 1.65B | 1.43B | 2.33B | 2.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.13B | -1.16B | -1.29B | -1.38B | -1.17B | -1.10B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -992.77M | -621.70M | -501.00M | -776.00M | -1.33B | -841.00M |
First Quantum Minerals Technical Analysis
Positive
39.70
Price Trends
39.16
Negative
37.20
Positive
35.72
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.59
Positive
48.10
Neutral
50.13
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.12, above the 50-day MA of 39.16, and above the 200-day MA of 35.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.59 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FM.
First Quantum Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$12.99B | 12.54 | 20.72% | 0.07% | 14.46% | 316.60% | |
78 Outperform | C$28.74B | 14.07 | 23.11% | 0.68% | 18.62% | ― | |
74 Outperform | C$3.60B | 8.77 | 31.19% | ― | 87.54% | 1269.40% | |
73 Outperform | C$9.53B | 16.20 | 12.69% | ― | 37.06% | 421.94% | |
63 Neutral | C$31.19B | -108.57 | -1.78% | ― | 9.31% | -245.11% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$3.54B | 251.94 | 2.27% | ― | 27.92% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
37.39
14.00
59.85%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
29.24
15.85
118.32%
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
9.69
5.29
120.23%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
33.59
19.94
146.06%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
12.48
4.74
61.24%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
34.48
14.96
76.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.