First Quantum Minerals Ltd (TSE:FM)
TSX:FM
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First Quantum Minerals
(TSX:FM)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
C$33.00
▲(5.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is held back mainly by weak profitability/FCF durability and high valuation (very elevated P/E), with additional pressure from mixed-to-weak technical momentum. Offsetting factors include resilient operating cash generation, improving leverage trajectory, and a constructive earnings call focused on project delivery and liquidity strengthening, though costs, hedging impacts, and Panama-related uncertainty remain material.
Positive Factors
Consistent operating cash flow & liquidity
Sustained positive operating cash flow provides durable financing capacity for capex, debt service and working capital through commodity cycles. This recurring cash generation supports deleveraging, liquidity cushions and project funding without sole reliance on equity markets, enhancing financial resilience.
Negative Factors
Volatile profitability and weak FCF durability
Sharp swings in net income and a steep drop in free cash flow undermine the company’s ability to consistently fund maintenance and growth capex or accelerate deleveraging. Persistent below‑the‑line volatility (depreciation, financing, one‑offs) reduces earnings quality and strategic optionality.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent operating cash flow & liquidity
Sustained positive operating cash flow provides durable financing capacity for capex, debt service and working capital through commodity cycles. This recurring cash generation supports deleveraging, liquidity cushions and project funding without sole reliance on equity markets, enhancing financial resilience.
Read all positive factors
First Quantum Minerals (FM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$26.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)223.3
Beta (1Y)2.44
Revenue Growth8.17%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees20,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding834,206,100
10 Day Avg. Volume2,252,249
30 Day Avg. Volume2,564,938
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)2.00
Price to Sales (P/S)4.26
P/FCF Ratio48.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$42.74Price Target Upside36.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)0.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.43B
First Quantum Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, nickel, pyrite, gold, silver, and zinc ores, as well as produces acid. Th...
How the Company Makes Money
First Quantum Minerals makes money primarily by producing and selling metals—especially copper—with additional revenue from nickel. Its revenue model is commodity-production based: the company operates mines and processing facilities, extracts ore...
First Quantum Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented meaningful operational and financial progress — notably the Kansanshi S3 commercial production, record nickel performance, full‑year production meeting guidance, strengthened liquidity and financing moves, and positive credit outlook — which materially improve the company’s growth and financing optionality. However, the quarter also highlighted cost pressures (C1 up 13%), operational interruptions at Sentinel (Q4 copper down 4% QoQ) driven by Ball mill fatigue and weather, significant ongoing care & maintenance costs at Cobre Panama (~$15–17M/month) with further potential restart cash needs (~$250M peak for stockpile processing and $300–$500M potential broader restart), hedge losses (notably ~$220M expected on copper hedges at current spot) and elevated net debt (net debt $5.2B, ~3.3x EBITDA). On balance, the highlights (project delivery, production achievements, financing/liquidity actions and improved credit outlook) outweigh the lowlights, though material risks remain related to costs, leverage and Panama timing.Positive Updates
Kansanshi S3 Expansion Achieves Commercial Production
S3 declared commercial production on December 1 after demonstrating consistent performance at 90% of design capacity within 5 months of initial production. Throughput capacity is 25 million tonnes per annum; S3 is expected to contribute over 84,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, sourced evenly from low‑grade stockpiles and fresh ore.
Negative Updates
Rising Unit Costs
Copper C1 costs rose 13% in Q4 to $2.21 per pound, driven by lower production, higher power, labor and maintenance costs. Management raised copper C1 and all‑in guidance across the 3‑year period to reflect higher costs and inflationary pressures.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Kansanshi S3 Expansion Achieves Commercial Production
S3 declared commercial production on December 1 after demonstrating consistent performance at 90% of design capacity within 5 months of initial production. Throughput capacity is 25 million tonnes per annum; S3 is expected to contribute over 84,000 tonnes of copper in 2026, sourced evenly from low‑grade stockpiles and fresh ore.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights for 2026: Kansanshi is guided to 175,000–205,000 t Cu and 110,000–120,000 oz Au (S3 expected to contribute >84,000 t Cu), Sentinel to 190,000–220,000 t Cu and Enterprise to 30,000–40,000 t Ni; group copper C1/all‑in guidance is ~ $1.95–$2.20/lb for 2026, easing to ~$1.85–$2.10/lb by 2028 (Q4 C1 was $2.21/lb). Hedging remains ~20% hedged for the full year (≈50% H1), with expected mark‑to‑market losses of ≈$220M on copper and $23M on gold at current spot. Cobre Panama: processing of stockpiles could begin ~3 months after formal approval, take ~1 year, yield ~70,000 t Cu, cost $12–$12.50/tonne milled (≈$2.90/lb) with upfront cash outflows peaking around $250M; P&SM runs $15–$17M/month ($45M in Q4, $400M spent to date) and the site is expected to be broadly cash‑flow neutral by year‑end inclusive of P&SM. Balance sheet/capex: net debt was $5.2B, liquidity $1.9B (cash $644M + $1.3B undrawn RCF), a new $1.35B 10‑yr bond and refinancings freed ~ $360M this year, and 2025 CapEx underspend of ~ $240M shifts into 2026 with overall CapEx declining across the 3‑year guidance period.First Quantum Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.24B | 4.80B | 6.46B | 7.63B | 7.21B |
| Gross Profit | 1.46B | 1.35B | 1.29B | 2.20B | 2.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.78B | 1.62B | 2.25B | 3.28B | 3.55B |
| Net Income | -28.00M | 2.00M | -954.00M | 1.03B | 832.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 25.24B | 24.11B | 23.76B | 25.08B | 25.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 716.00M | 843.00M | 1.16B | 1.69B | 1.86B |
| Total Debt | 5.91B | 6.37B | 7.58B | 7.38B | 7.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.70B | 12.21B | 12.98B | 12.84B | 13.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.16B | 11.47B | 10.25B | 10.90B | 10.02B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 462.97M | 365.00M | 127.00M | 1.17B | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.62B | 1.65B | 1.43B | 2.33B | 2.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.16B | -1.29B | -1.38B | -1.17B | -1.10B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -621.70M | -501.00M | -776.00M | -1.33B | -841.00M |
First Quantum Minerals Technical Analysis
Negative
31.33
Price Trends
36.69
Negative
35.08
Negative
30.43
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.69
Negative
41.29
Neutral
63.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.99, below the 50-day MA of 36.69, and above the 200-day MA of 30.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:FM.
First Quantum Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | C$27.38B | 14.08 | 21.95% | 0.68% | -19.68% | -90.05% | |
65 Neutral | C$3.62B | 10.93 | 31.58% | ― | 29.97% | 658.38% | |
63 Neutral | C$10.72B | 13.57 | 19.30% | 0.07% | 5.40% | 413.48% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | C$3.02B | -83.57 | -5.02% | ― | 1.17% | -169.37% | |
59 Neutral | C$7.47B | 23.80 | 9.77% | ― | 44.69% | 1216.12% | |
53 Neutral | C$26.14B | 223.31 | -0.24% | ― | 8.17% | ― |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
31.33
11.98
61.91%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
27.01
16.11
147.82%
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
8.29
5.07
157.45%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
32.04
20.45
176.35%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
9.78
2.37
31.98%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
34.75
17.32
99.37%
First Quantum Minerals Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
First Quantum to Sell Türkiye’s Çayeli Mine to Cengiz for $340 Million
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
First Quantum Minerals has agreed to sell its Çayeli copper and zinc mine in Türkiye to local conglomerate Cengiz Holding for $340 million in cash, reinforcing its push to streamline its portfolio around core strategic priorities. The de...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
First Quantum Taps Bond Market to Refinance Costly Secured Debt
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
First Quantum Minerals has completed a $1.5 billion offering of senior unsecured notes carrying a 6.375% coupon and maturing in 2036, with guarantees provided by certain subsidiaries and interest payable semi-annually. The transaction forms part o...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
First Quantum’s New Taca Taca Study Confirms Flagship Copper Project’s Scale and Economics
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
First Quantum Minerals has filed a new NI 43-101 technical report for its 100%-owned Taca Taca copper-gold-molybdenum project in Argentina’s Salta Province, positioning it as the company’s next major development asset. The study outlin...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
First Quantum upsizes $1.5bn note issue to refinance costlier debt
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
First Quantum Minerals has priced and upsized a new issue of 6.375% senior unsecured notes due 2036 to $1.5 billion from an originally planned $1.35 billion, with settlement expected around February 26, 2026. The notes, issued at par and guarantee...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
First Quantum Minerals to Raise US$1.35 Billion in Senior Notes to Refinance High-Cost Debt
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
First Quantum Minerals has launched an offering of US$1.35 billion in senior unsecured notes, which will be guaranteed by certain subsidiaries, with interest payable semi-annually and final pricing terms to be set subject to market conditions. The...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
First Quantum lifts balance-sheet flexibility as Kansanshi S3 ramps up and Panama allows ore processing
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
First Quantum Minerals reported fourth-quarter 2025 net earnings of $25 million and adjusted earnings of $5 million, helped by stronger realized copper and gold prices despite a 4% sequential drop in copper output to 100,374 tonnes and higher cash...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
First Quantum Hits 2025 Output Targets, Trims Near-Term Guidance and Awaits Panama Stockpile Approval
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
First Quantum Minerals reported preliminary 2025 production of 396,000 tonnes of copper, in line with revised guidance, alongside higher year-on-year gold output of 152,000 ounces and nickel production of 23,200 tonnes, supported by the under̴...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
First Quantum Sets Dates for 2025 Results, Production Update and Guidance
Neutral
Jan 13, 2026
First Quantum Minerals has scheduled the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial and operating results for February 10, 2026, after the close of trading in Toronto, to be followed by a conference call and webcast on February 11....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.