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First Quantum Minerals
(OTC:FM)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
C$48.00
▲(24.61% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/30/26
The score is primarily held back by weak bottom-line profitability (negative net income/ROE) and a sharp recent decline in free cash flow, despite solid operating margins and positive cash generation. The earnings call contributes a meaningful uplift due to improving revenue/EBITDA, strong liquidity, and progress at Cobre Panama, but regulatory uncertainty, cost inflation risk, and higher net debt temper the outlook. Technically, the stock is below key short-term averages, and valuation is constrained by a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Revenue and EBITDA growth
Higher revenue and EBITDA indicate stronger realized metal prices, sales and operating leverage. Sustained improvement would strengthen internal funding capacity and support the company’s capital-intensive mining portfolio.
Negative Factors
Persistent negative bottom-line profitability
Negative net income and ROE show that solid operating margins are not translating consistently into shareholder returns. This weakens earnings quality, limits retained capital and increases sensitivity to costs, prices and exceptional items.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and EBITDA growth
Higher revenue and EBITDA indicate stronger realized metal prices, sales and operating leverage. Sustained improvement would strengthen internal funding capacity and support the company’s capital-intensive mining portfolio.
Read all positive factors
First Quantum Minerals (FM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$38.38B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.69
Revenue Growth15.02%
EPS Growth-140.36%
CountryCA
Employees15,661
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding834,206,100
10 Day Avg. Volume2,664,530
30 Day Avg. Volume2,914,104
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.51
Price to Book (P/B)2.00
Price to Sales (P/S)4.26
P/FCF Ratio48.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$48.86Price Target Upside26.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)0.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$6.72B
First Quantum Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM) is a Canada-based mining company focused primarily on the exploration, development, and operation of large-scale mining assets. The company’s core business is the production and sale of base metals—most notably cop...
How the Company Makes Money
First Quantum Minerals makes money primarily by selling metal products produced from its mining and processing operations. Its main revenue stream is copper sales, typically in the form of copper concentrate and/or copper cathode depending on the ...
First Quantum Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: revenues and EBITDA rose, production increased modestly (total copper +4% QoQ), Cobre Panama achieved an earlier-than-expected recommissioning milestone and the audit was broadly favorable (87.73/100). The company closed value-accretive disposals, maintains ~ $2 billion liquidity, and now has full exposure to spot copper which supports potential strong free cash flow in H2. Offsetting these positives are material hedge losses, elevated fuel-driven cost pressures (with a cited ~$0.25/lb upside risk), regulatory uncertainty and conditional capital requirements at Cobre Panama, and a modest increase in net debt. On balance, the operational progress, strong commodity backdrop and financial discipline outweighed the challenges and near-term risks.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $1.5 billion; adjusted EBITDA rose 23% to $400 million, driven by higher copper prices and increased sales.
Negative Updates
Significant Hedge Losses Impacting Results
The company incurred $159 million of copper hedge losses and $5 million of gold hedge losses in Q2 which reduced EBITDA despite stronger commodity prices.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Revenue increased 8% year-over-year to $1.5 billion; adjusted EBITDA rose 23% to $400 million, driven by higher copper prices and increased sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 production guidance of 175,000–205,000 tonnes of copper and 110,000–120,000 ounces of gold (operation-level guidance includes Sentinel 190,000–220,000 t Cu and Enterprise 30,000–40,000 t contained Ni; Guelb Moghrein ≈7,000 t Cu and 30,000–40,000 oz Au). At Cobre Panama, management expects ~38 million tonnes of mineralized ore containing ~70,000 tonnes of recoverable copper (supporting ~12 months of stockpile processing at current rates), with first concentrate shipments expected in August; ~$60 million has been spent to date within a previously guided ~$250 million for stockpile processing and total restart estimates remain $350–500 million (with an incremental ~$200 million to reach full mining restart across OpEx, working capital and CapEx). Financially, Q2 revenue was $1.5 billion (up 8%) and EBITDA $400 million (up 23%); net debt rose $123 million to $5.4 billion, liquidity is ~ $2.0 billion (cash $771 million + $1.25 billion undrawn revolver), diesel averaged $1.59/L in Q2 (vs $0.91/L in Q1) and the company notes roughly a $0.25 per pound upside risk to C1 cash cost guidance if current fuel, Kwacha and gold prices persist; excluding Cobre Panama C1 fell $0.03 QoQ, while including it C1 rose $0.03 and Cobre Panama C1 is expected around $4.40/lb. The hedge program is complete (Q2 hedge losses of $159 million copper and $5 million gold), leaving the company fully exposed to spot copper (Q2 spot range $5.50–$6.40/lb); capital guidance remains unchanged.First Quantum Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.73B | 5.24B | 4.80B | 6.46B | 7.63B | 7.21B |
| Gross Profit | 1.33B | 1.46B | 1.35B | 1.29B | 2.20B | 2.56B |
| EBITDA | 1.93B | 1.78B | 1.62B | 2.25B | 3.28B | 3.55B |
| Net Income | -82.40M | -28.00M | 2.00M | -954.00M | 1.03B | 832.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 25.07B | 25.24B | 24.11B | 23.76B | 25.08B | 25.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 779.00M | 716.00M | 843.00M | 1.16B | 1.69B | 1.86B |
| Total Debt | 6.19B | 5.91B | 6.37B | 7.58B | 7.38B | 7.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.49B | 13.70B | 12.21B | 12.98B | 12.84B | 13.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.32B | 11.16B | 11.47B | 10.25B | 10.90B | 10.02B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 384.05M | 462.97M | 365.00M | 127.00M | 1.17B | 1.89B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.47B | 1.62B | 1.65B | 1.43B | 2.33B | 2.88B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -949.08M | -1.16B | -1.29B | -1.38B | -1.17B | -1.10B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -487.77M | -621.70M | -501.00M | -776.00M | -1.33B | -841.00M |
First Quantum Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | C$30.90B | 15.62 | 22.97% | 0.31% | 28.67% | ― | |
80 Outperform | C$17.25B | 17.79 | 18.43% | 0.10% | 13.43% | 129.98% | |
73 Outperform | C$5.17B | 13.20 | 30.09% | ― | 93.28% | 113.62% | |
72 Outperform | C$11.76B | 19.00 | 13.69% | ― | 36.25% | 524.95% | |
63 Neutral | C$4.38B | 1,099.85 | 1.33% | ― | 68.28% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$38.38B | -322.70 | -0.73% | ― | 15.02% | -140.36% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
47.51
24.04
102.43%
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
41.35
25.09
154.31%
TSE:TKO
Trekor Metals
12.64
8.29
190.57%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
38.07
22.45
143.69%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
16.08
6.42
66.46%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
54.18
34.25
171.85%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.