First Quantum Minerals (FM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$31.34B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 486.7
• Beta (1Y): 2.33
• Revenue Growth: 8.17%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 20,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Copper
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 834,206,100
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,252,249
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,564,938
• PEG Ratio: -53.50
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.93
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$40.72
• Price Target Upside: 8.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$45.00 ▲(19.78% Upside)

First Quantum Minerals' stock is supported by strong technical momentum and robust financial performance, particularly in cash flow generation. However, high valuation metrics and operational challenges in Panama and Sentinel present risks. The positive earnings call sentiment and production achievements contribute to a favorable outlook, but the high P/E ratio suggests caution.

Positive Factors

Rising copper production

Sustained production growth increases scale and revenue predictability, helping lower unit costs and improve mine throughput. Meeting guidance supports operational credibility, strengthens long-term cash generation, and underpins the company’s core copper supply position for the next several quarters.

Kansanshi S3 expansion execution

Delivery of a major expansion under budget demonstrates project execution capability and disciplined capital allocation. A successfully ramped asset increases long-term production capacity, reduces unit costs at scale, and enhances the company’s asset base and cash flow profile over multiple years.

Improved liquidity & cash generation

Material liquidity improvement and non-debt financing increase financial flexibility and lower refinancing risk. Strong free cash flow growth and available revolver capacity support ongoing capex, working capital needs, and give resilience to commodity cycles for the medium term.

Negative Factors

Regulatory uncertainty in Panama

A multi-month environmental audit and negotiation requirement create structural operational risk at a major asset, potentially interrupting production, delaying access to ore, and complicating planning. Regulatory outcomes could materially affect output, costs, and long-term asset value.

Low net profitability & ROE

Very low net margins and ROE indicate earnings are being eroded by costs, royalties or non-operating items despite decent gross and EBIT margins. This limits shareholder returns and makes the business more vulnerable to commodity downcycles and cost inflation over the medium term.

Operational & maintenance risks

Persistent equipment fatigue and maintenance needs signal reliability challenges that can constrain sustained throughput and raise unit costs. Combined with past smelter shutdown impacts, these operational risks can disrupt sales, increase royalties and depress margins over multiple quarters.

First Quantum Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, nickel, pyrite, gold, silver, and zinc ores, as well as produces acid. The company has operating mines located in Zambia, Panama, Finland, Turkey, Spain, Australia, and Mauritania, as well as a development project in Zambia. It is exploring the Taca Taca copper-gold-molybdenum project in Argentina, as well as the Haquira copper deposit in Peru. The company was formerly known as First Quantum Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to First Quantum Minerals Ltd. in July 1996. First Quantum Minerals Ltd. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

First Quantum Minerals generates revenue primarily through the sale of copper and nickel products. The company sells its copper in various forms, including cathodes and concentrates, to customers in the global market, including smelters and trading companies. The price of copper, which is influenced by global demand and supply dynamics, directly impacts the company's revenue. Additionally, First Quantum also earns income from by-products such as gold and silver, which are extracted during the mining process. Key revenue streams include long-term contracts and spot market sales. The company has established partnerships with various stakeholders, including local governments and other mining companies, which can provide operational synergies and access to additional markets. Factors such as mining efficiency, operational costs, and global commodity prices are significant contributors to its earnings.

First Quantum Minerals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

First Quantum Minerals demonstrates strong operational efficiency and cash flow generation, with a stable balance sheet. However, challenges in net profitability and return on equity persist, impacting overall financial performance.

Income Statement

First Quantum Minerals shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM data indicates a gross profit margin of 28.32% and an EBIT margin of 19.46%, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin is low at 0.51%, indicating challenges in translating revenue into net income. Revenue growth is positive at 11.61% TTM, recovering from previous declines, but the overall profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62 TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is low at 1.78% TTM, suggesting limited returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 45.64% TTM, showing a solid equity base. Overall, the company maintains a balanced approach to debt and equity, but profitability on equity could be improved.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals strong free cash flow growth of 201.37% TTM, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.15 TTM, suggesting efficient cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.57 TTM, highlighting effective cash management. Overall, the company demonstrates robust cash flow performance, supporting its financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.00B	4.80B	6.46B	7.63B	7.21B	5.07B
Gross Profit	1.43B	1.35B	1.29B	2.20B	2.56B	1.08B
EBITDA	1.70B	1.62B	2.25B	3.28B	3.55B	2.16B
Net Income	46.60M	2.00M	-954.00M	1.03B	832.00M	-180.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.77B	24.11B	23.76B	25.08B	25.27B	24.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	968.67M	843.00M	1.16B	1.69B	1.86B	950.00M
Total Debt	6.97B	6.37B	7.58B	7.38B	7.91B	8.36B
Total Liabilities	13.19B	12.21B	12.98B	12.84B	13.78B	14.20B
Stockholders Equity	11.30B	11.47B	10.25B	10.90B	10.02B	8.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.39B	365.00M	127.00M	1.17B	1.89B	1.00B
Operating Cash Flow	2.54B	1.65B	1.43B	2.33B	2.88B	1.61B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.21B	-1.29B	-1.38B	-1.17B	-1.10B	-673.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.06B	-501.00M	-776.00M	-1.33B	-841.00M	-543.00M

First Quantum Minerals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 37.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.39, above the 50-day MA of 36.62, and above the 200-day MA of 27.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:FM.

First Quantum Minerals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FM	73 Outperform	C$31.34B	486.66	0.41%	―	8.17%	―
CS	73 Outperform	C$12.05B	28.01	9.83%	―	44.69%	1216.12%
LUN	72 Outperform	C$28.21B	757.05	3.33%	0.68%	-19.68%	-90.05%
HBM	70 Outperform	C$13.85B	22.01	16.43%	0.07%	5.40%	413.48%
ERO	69 Neutral	$5.02B	25.74	17.26%	―	29.97%	658.38%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKO	54 Neutral	$4.12B	-63.38	-10.53%	―	1.17%	-169.37%

First Quantum Minerals Corporate Events

First Quantum Hits 2025 Output Targets, Trims Near-Term Guidance and Awaits Panama Stockpile Approval

First Quantum Minerals reported preliminary 2025 production of 396,000 tonnes of copper, in line with revised guidance, alongside higher year-on-year gold output of 152,000 ounces and nickel production of 23,200 tonnes, supported by the under‑budget completion and ramp-up of the Kansanshi S3 expansion in Zambia. Looking ahead to 2026–2028, the company slightly reduced copper and gold production guidance for 2026 and 2027 due to maintenance and ore-grade issues at Sentinel and Kansanshi, raised cost guidance and 2026 capital spending following deferrals from 2025, and highlighted a potential environmental and operational de-risking at Cobre Panamá as the Panamanian government moves toward authorizing the processing of low-grade ore stockpiles, which is expected to create jobs and manage tailings and drainage risks while the mine remains formally closed.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Buy with a C$46.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum Sets Dates for 2025 Results, Production Update and Guidance

First Quantum Minerals has scheduled the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial and operating results for February 10, 2026, after the close of trading in Toronto, to be followed by a conference call and webcast on February 11. The company will also publish its 2025 preliminary production figures and a new three-year operational guidance update on January 15, 2026, signaling an important checkpoint for investors and other stakeholders as it navigates ongoing operational changes, including the preservation status of Cobre Panamá, care and maintenance at Ravensthorpe, and the continued development of key Latin American growth projects.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Buy with a C$40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum Minerals to Sell Spanish Las Cruces Mine for Up to $190 Million

First Quantum Minerals has agreed to sell its wholly owned Cobre Las Cruces mine in Spain to Global Panduro, a company controlled by funds managed by Resource Capital Funds, for consideration of up to $190 million plus a profitability‑linked earn-out. The transaction, which includes an upfront cash payment, a loan note, milestone-based deferred payments and contingent earn-out tied to future exit events, is expected to close in the first half of 2026 subject to customary conditions and regulatory approvals, marking First Quantum’s exit from the Las Cruces polymetallic redevelopment project and handing its next development phase to a private equity-backed buyer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Hold with a C$33.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.

First Quantum to Sell Spain’s Cobre Las Cruces Mine for Up to $190 Million

First Quantum Minerals has agreed to sell its wholly owned Cobre Las Cruces mine in Spain to Global Panduro, a vehicle controlled by Resource Capital Funds, for consideration of up to $190 million plus a profitability-linked earn-out. The deal structure includes $45 million in cash on closing, a loan note of about $65 million, up to $80 million in deferred milestone payments tied to development of the polymetallic primary sulphide project at the site, and an additional contingent earn-out based on future exit and liquidity events, with closing targeted for the first half of 2026. The transaction marks First Quantum’s exit from the Las Cruces operation, which previously produced copper cathodes and was slated for redevelopment into an underground polymetallic mine, and shifts the project’s future development to Resource Capital Funds, a specialist mining private equity investor, potentially enhancing capital and execution resources for advancing the asset while giving First Quantum financial flexibility and exposure to future upside through deferred and contingent payments.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FM) stock is a Hold with a C$33.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Quantum Minerals stock, see the TSE:FM Stock Forecast page.