Hudbay Minerals (TSE:HBM)
NYSE:HBM
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Hudbay Minerals
(NYSE:HBM)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$39.00
▲(9.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/10/26
The score is driven primarily by strengthened financial performance (higher profitability and improved leverage) and a very positive earnings update with reiterated guidance and clear growth catalysts. Valuation is supportive (moderate P/E and high dividend yield), while technicals confirm an uptrend. Offsetting factors are cyclical earnings/cash-flow volatility, mixed cash conversion, and ongoing permitting/capex uncertainty around growth projects.
Positive Factors
Strengthened balance sheet
Material deleveraging and equity growth have meaningfully improved financial flexibility. With net debt near zero and net-debt/EBITDA at decade lows, Hudbay has durable capacity to fund projects, withstand commodity cycles, and access capital without forcing asset sales, reducing refinancing risk over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Mixed cash conversion
While aggregate cash generation is positive, persistent differences between net income and operating cash, plus uneven free cash flow, signal working-capital swings and lumpy reinvestment needs. This raises variability in true cash available for dividends, buybacks or incremental project spend across cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strengthened balance sheet
Material deleveraging and equity growth have meaningfully improved financial flexibility. With net debt near zero and net-debt/EBITDA at decade lows, Hudbay has durable capacity to fund projects, withstand commodity cycles, and access capital without forcing asset sales, reducing refinancing risk over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Hudbay Minerals (HBM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$13.63B
Dividend Yield0.07%
Average Volume (3M)1.92M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)2.69
Revenue Growth14.46%
EPS Growth316.60%
CountryCA
Employees2,233
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.66
Shares Outstanding396,845,120
10 Day Avg. Volume2,012,879
30 Day Avg. Volume1,918,314
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.43
Price to Sales (P/S)3.57
P/FCF Ratio39.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$39.60Price Target Upside11.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)1.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.94B
Hudbay Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the discovery, production, and marketing of base and precious metals in North and South America. It produces copper concentrates containing copper, gold...
How the Company Makes Money
Hudbay makes money primarily by producing metals from its mining operations and selling those metals into global commodity markets. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Copper revenue: Copper is a primary product for Hudbay; revenue is generated b...
Hudbay Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial quarter with multiple records (revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted earnings), industry-leading cost metrics, significant free cash flow generation, a strengthened balance sheet, and clear multi-year growth catalysts (Copper World, Cactus, Mason, New Ingerbelle). Challenges highlighted—grade variability, localized labor and equipment constraints, external cost pressures (fuel, labor), permitting/legal timing and remaining CapEx uncertainty—were presented as manageable and being actively mitigated. Overall, the positive operational results, robust liquidity position (despite a post-quarter reduction), strategic partnership funding, and tangible production growth outlook materially outweigh the identified near-term risks.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Record revenue of $757 million, record adjusted EBITDA of $422 million, and record adjusted net earnings of $159 million ($0.40 per share) in Q1 2026, driven by higher realized metal prices and margin expansion.
Negative Updates
Peru Grade Depletion and Q1 Cost Increase
Q1 copper and gold production in Peru were lower than Q4 due to depletion of higher-grade Pampacancha ore; Peru cash costs rose 23% quarter-over-quarter to $0.70 per pound of copper due to lower byproduct credits.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Financial Performance
Record revenue of $757 million, record adjusted EBITDA of $422 million, and record adjusted net earnings of $159 million ($0.40 per share) in Q1 2026, driven by higher realized metal prices and margin expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the company is on track to meet 2026 production and cost guidance after a Q1 that delivered record revenue of $757 million, adjusted EBITDA of $422 million, adjusted net earnings of $159 million ($0.40/sh), cash from operations of $211 million and Q1 free cash flow of $102 million (TTM free cash flow $400 million); Q1 production was 28 kt copper and 62 koz gold (Peru: 21 kt Cu, 9 koz Au, 530 koz Ag, 380 t Mo; Manitoba: 48 koz Au, 2.5 kt Cu, 5 kt Zn, 213 koz Ag; Copper Mountain: 4.1 kt Cu, 5.2 koz Au, 43 koz Ag), consolidated cash costs were a record negative $1.80/lb (sustaining cash costs $0), Peru cash costs $0.70/lb, B.C. $2.41/lb and Manitoba gold cash costs $4.08/oz; the balance sheet was strengthened with >$1.0 billion cash, $1.4 billion total liquidity at March 31 (net debt ~0, net debt/EBITDA at decade-low, post-note repayment liquidity $957 million), and management reiterated the growth outlook—consolidated copper to average ~147 ktpa over the next three years (+24% vs 2025), consolidated gold ~243 kozpa, Copper World DFS >85% (DFS mid‑2026, FID later this year, rock‑in‑the‑box ~mid‑2029) with a $420 million initial JV contribution from Mitsubishi, Mason PFS targeted for 2027 with ~$20 million budgeted in 2026, New Ingerbelle permits received and expected to raise gold from ~20 kozpa to ~40 kozpa with ~10 years of reserves starting ~2028, and a pathway to ~250 ktpa by decade‑end and ~500 ktpa by mid‑next decade.Hudbay Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
81
Very Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.36B | 2.20B | 2.02B | 1.69B | 1.46B | 1.50B |
| Gross Profit | 851.84M | 639.91M | 553.80M | 784.22M | 276.89M | 131.02M |
| EBITDA | 1.50B | 1.02B | 780.90M | 651.30M | 502.54M | 231.76M |
| Net Income | 657.35M | 578.45M | 76.70M | 66.37M | 70.38M | -244.36M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.90B | 6.21B | 5.49B | 5.31B | 4.33B | 4.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.00B | 568.06M | 581.80M | 250.52M | 225.66M | 270.99M |
| Total Debt | 1.07B | 1.09B | 1.20B | 1.38B | 1.25B | 1.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.90B | 2.99B | 2.84B | 3.11B | 2.75B | 3.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.54B | 3.23B | 2.55B | 2.10B | 1.57B | 1.48B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 252.46M | 197.90M | 317.30M | 195.75M | 178.84M | 6.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 768.74M | 672.77M | 666.20M | 476.85M | 487.80M | 383.82M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -159.84M | -501.02M | -382.90M | -271.78M | -337.67M | -375.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -174.63M | -146.83M | 10.20M | -182.39M | -196.30M | -175.90M |
Hudbay Minerals Technical Analysis
Neutral
35.49
Price Trends
31.34
Positive
32.14
Positive
26.30
Positive
Market Momentum
0.93
Negative
48.57
Neutral
48.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:HBM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 35.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.24, above the 50-day MA of 31.34, and above the 200-day MA of 26.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:HBM.
Hudbay Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$13.63B | 11.10 | 20.70% | 0.07% | 14.46% | 316.60% | |
78 Outperform | C$33.03B | 18.96 | 23.11% | 0.68% | 18.62% | ― | |
72 Outperform | C$3.92B | 6.49 | 31.19% | ― | 87.54% | 1269.40% | |
65 Neutral | C$9.81B | 14.29 | 12.69% | ― | 37.06% | 421.94% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | C$3.46B | 48.59 | 2.27% | ― | 27.92% | ― | |
57 Neutral | C$29.06B | -25.38 | -1.78% | ― | 9.31% | -245.11% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
33.65
21.92
186.90%
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
9.07
6.20
216.03%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
37.95
25.44
203.38%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
12.70
5.98
88.99%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
37.02
18.00
94.64%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
35.56
15.93
81.15%
Hudbay Minerals Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Hudbay Extends Mine Lives and Lifts Copper Outlook in New Three-Year Guidance
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
Hudbay Minerals has updated its mineral reserves and resources and issued new production guidance through 2028, outlining a significant uplift in copper and gold output from its core Americas portfolio. The company expects consolidated copper prod...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Hudbay to Buy Arizona Sonoran, Building Major U.S. Copper Hub Around Cactus and Copper World
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Hudbay Minerals has agreed to acquire all remaining shares of Arizona Sonoran Copper Company in an all-share transaction, valuing ASCU at C$9.35 per share and delivering a roughly 30% premium to its recent trading price. The deal will give Hudbay ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hudbay posts record 2025 results and sharp cost gains, eyes Copper World go-ahead in 2026
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Hudbay Minerals reported a record year in 2025, generating $2.2 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA, while meeting its consolidated copper and gold production guidance for the 11th and 5th consecutive years, respectively. Strong...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.