Hudbay Minerals Inc (TSE:HBM)
TSX:HBM
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Hudbay Minerals
(TSX:HBM)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$37.00
▲(4.25% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/09/26
The score is driven by improved fundamentals and a positive earnings outlook (strong liquidity, de-risking JV, low cost guidance), supported by a reasonable valuation with a high dividend yield. Offsetting factors are weaker cash conversion/volatile free cash flow and mixed near-term technical momentum with some operational and permitting risks.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet deleveraging & liquidity
Material deleveraging and large available liquidity materially improve funding flexibility over the medium term. With net leverage cut to ~0x post‑JV and >$1.4B liquidity, Hudbay can fund sustaining/growth capex, service debt and return capital without immediate refinancing risk, strengthening resilience through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Volatile free cash flow / weak cash conversion
Despite positive operating cash flows, low and volatile free cash flow and poor cash conversion reduce the reliability of internally generated funds for dividends, debt paydown and growth. Over 2–6 months higher sustaining/growth spend or working capital swings can rapidly consume liquidity and force external financing or project pacing changes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet deleveraging & liquidity
Material deleveraging and large available liquidity materially improve funding flexibility over the medium term. With net leverage cut to ~0x post‑JV and >$1.4B liquidity, Hudbay can fund sustaining/growth capex, service debt and return capital without immediate refinancing risk, strengthening resilience through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Hudbay Minerals (HBM) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$13.21B
Dividend Yield0.07%
Average Volume (3M)2.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.6
Beta (1Y)2.70
Revenue Growth11.21%
EPS Growth635.93%
CountryCA
Employees2,233
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCopper
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.30
Shares Outstanding396,845,120
10 Day Avg. Volume1,672,000
30 Day Avg. Volume2,027,635
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.43
Price to Sales (P/S)3.57
P/FCF Ratio39.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$40.69Price Target Upside14.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.83B
Hudbay Minerals Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the discovery, production, and marketing of base and precious metals in North and South America. It produces copper concentrates containing copper, gold...
How the Company Makes Money
Hudbay makes money primarily by producing metals from its mining operations and selling those metals into global commodity markets. Its key revenue streams include: (1) Copper revenue: Copper is a primary product for Hudbay; revenue is generated b...
Hudbay Minerals Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a largely positive outlook: the company reported multiple record financials (revenue, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow), strong balance sheet improvement and a transformative JV with Mitsubishi that de-risks Copper World and provides substantial liquidity. Operationally, the business demonstrated resilience—meeting long-term production guidance streaks, showing quarter-over-quarter recoveries (notably in Peru), advancing mills and exploration (Talbot, 1901) and initiating a dividend. The primary negatives were operational disruptions (wildfires, power outage, SAG mill damage), the depletion of the Pampacancha high-grade area causing near-term gold declines and some permitting uncertainty in Peru; these challenges appear manageable within the company’s strengthened financial and project framework.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance (2025)
Delivered record annual revenue of >$2.0B, record adjusted EBITDA of >$1.0B and record annual free cash flow of $388M; Q4 revenue $733M and Q4 adjusted EBITDA $386M; Q4 net earnings $128M ($0.32/sh) and adjusted EPS $0.22/sh.
Negative Updates
Operational Interruptions — Wildfires and Social Unrest
Significant disruptions in 2025 from wildfire evacuations in Manitoba and social unrest in Peru led to temporary operational interruptions, deferrals of production and some missed quarterly targets, notably causing full-year Manitoba production to lag prior year levels.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance (2025)
Delivered record annual revenue of >$2.0B, record adjusted EBITDA of >$1.0B and record annual free cash flow of $388M; Q4 revenue $733M and Q4 adjusted EBITDA $386M; Q4 net earnings $128M ($0.32/sh) and adjusted EPS $0.22/sh.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hudbay's 2026 guidance targets consolidated copper production of ~124,000 tonnes (midpoint, +5% year‑over‑year) and consolidated gold of ~244,500 ounces (‑9%), with Peru ~82,500 t Cu and 17,500 oz Au, Manitoba ~200,000 oz Au (+15%), and B.C. ~30,000 t Cu (+26%); consolidated cash costs are guided at negative $0.30 to negative $0.10 per lb Cu and sustaining cash costs $1.70–$2.10/lb, with Peru cash costs $1.70–$2.10/lb, Manitoba gold cash costs $500–$800/oz and B.C. cash costs $1.50–$2.50/lb. Capital guidance includes $435 million of sustaining capex, roughly $140 million of operational growth capex (ex‑Copper World), $135 million of Copper World pre‑sanction growth spend, ~$130 million of capitalized stripping in B.C., and $60 million of exploration (with regional breakdowns such as Peru sustaining $140M/growth $40M, Manitoba sustaining $105M/growth $15M, B.C. sustaining $60M/growth $85M); the company also announced a $0.01 quarterly dividend ($0.04 annual) and is entering 2026 with adjusted liquidity >$1.4 billion and net leverage reduced to ~0x (net debt/EBITDA was 0.4x at Dec‑end pre‑JV).Hudbay Minerals Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.20B | 2.02B | 1.69B | 1.46B | 1.50B |
| Gross Profit | 639.91M | 553.80M | 784.22M | 276.89M | 131.02M |
| EBITDA | 1.02B | 780.90M | 651.30M | 502.54M | 231.76M |
| Net Income | 578.45M | 76.70M | 66.37M | 70.38M | -244.36M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.21B | 5.49B | 5.31B | 4.33B | 4.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 568.06M | 581.80M | 250.52M | 225.66M | 270.99M |
| Total Debt | 1.09B | 1.20B | 1.38B | 1.25B | 1.26B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.99B | 2.84B | 3.11B | 2.75B | 3.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.23B | 2.55B | 2.10B | 1.57B | 1.48B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 197.90M | 317.30M | 195.75M | 178.84M | 6.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 672.77M | 666.20M | 476.85M | 487.80M | 383.82M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -501.02M | -382.90M | -271.78M | -337.67M | -375.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -146.83M | 10.20M | -182.39M | -196.30M | -175.90M |
Hudbay Minerals Technical Analysis
Positive
35.49
Price Trends
31.99
Positive
30.31
Positive
24.27
Positive
Market Momentum
1.19
Negative
66.15
Neutral
86.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:HBM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.49 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.28, above the 50-day MA of 31.99, and above the 200-day MA of 24.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:HBM.
Hudbay Minerals Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$31.48B | 14.08 | 21.95% | 0.68% | 12.36% | ― | |
75 Outperform | C$3.91B | 10.93 | 31.58% | ― | 70.09% | ― | |
72 Outperform | C$13.21B | 13.57 | 19.30% | 0.07% | 11.21% | 635.93% | |
63 Neutral | C$9.00B | 23.80 | 9.77% | ― | 50.32% | 278.41% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
60 Neutral | C$3.73B | -83.57 | -5.02% | ― | 11.21% | -128.44% | |
53 Neutral | C$29.96B | -796.52 | -0.24% | ― | 11.14% | -167.23% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:HBM
Hudbay Minerals
31.39
21.37
213.27%
TSE:TKO
Taseko Mines
9.88
6.75
215.65%
TSE:LUN
Lundin Mining
34.29
23.07
205.72%
TSE:CS
Capstone Copper
11.05
4.41
66.42%
TSE:ERO
Ero Copper
36.07
18.85
109.47%
TSE:FM
First Quantum Minerals
34.29
15.78
85.25%
Hudbay Minerals Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Hudbay Extends Mine Lives and Lifts Copper Outlook in New Three-Year Guidance
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
Hudbay Minerals has updated its mineral reserves and resources and issued new production guidance through 2028, outlining a significant uplift in copper and gold output from its core Americas portfolio. The company expects consolidated copper prod...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Hudbay to Buy Arizona Sonoran, Building Major U.S. Copper Hub Around Cactus and Copper World
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Hudbay Minerals has agreed to acquire all remaining shares of Arizona Sonoran Copper Company in an all-share transaction, valuing ASCU at C$9.35 per share and delivering a roughly 30% premium to its recent trading price. The deal will give Hudbay ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hudbay posts record 2025 results and sharp cost gains, eyes Copper World go-ahead in 2026
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Hudbay Minerals reported a record year in 2025, generating $2.2 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in adjusted EBITDA, while meeting its consolidated copper and gold production guidance for the 11th and 5th consecutive years, respectively. Strong...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Hudbay Hits 2025 Copper and Gold Targets on Strong Fourth Quarter Performance
Positive
Jan 16, 2026
Hudbay Minerals reported that it met its 2025 consolidated copper and gold production guidance, marking the 11th consecutive year of meeting copper targets and the fifth straight year achieving gold guidance, despite wildfire-related shutdowns and...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.