Lundin Gold (LUG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$28.14B
• Dividend Yield: 2.47%
• Average Volume (3M): 818.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.54
• Revenue Growth: 57.32%
• EPS Growth: 126.96%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,893
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 1.21
• Shares Outstanding: 241,390,760
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 903,066
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 818,912
• PEG Ratio: 0.09
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.27
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$96.75
• Price Target Upside: -16.40% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 82 Outperform
• Price Target: C$133.00 ▲(14.92% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by outstanding financial performance (high margins, strong free cash flow, and zero debt) and a constructive earnings outlook with reaffirmed guidance and shareholder returns. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend. Valuation (P/E ~29.8) is the main constraint, suggesting expectations are already elevated.

Lundin Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Lundin Gold Inc. operates as a mining company in Canada. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and three construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 64,270 hectares located in Southeast Ecuador. It primary holds interests in the Fruta del Norte gold project comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located near the city of Loja in Ecuador. The company was formerly known as Fortress Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Lundin Gold Inc. in December 2014. Lundin Gold Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Lundin Gold generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold from its Fruta del Norte mine. The company produces gold in the form of doré bars and gold concentrate, which are then sold to various buyers, including smelters and refiners. The revenue model is heavily dependent on the market price of gold, production volume, and operational efficiency at the mine. Lundin Gold also benefits from strategic partnerships and agreements with local and international entities that facilitate the transportation, refining, and sale of its gold products.

Lundin Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Lundin Gold exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth, a robust balance sheet, and excellent cash flow management. The elimination of debt has strengthened its financial position, while strong margins and cash flow generation indicate sustainable operations. The company is well-positioned for future growth, although it should continue to focus on optimizing asset usage to maintain its competitive edge.

Income Statement

Lundin Gold has demonstrated robust revenue growth, increasing from $358 million in 2020 to $1.19 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin has improved significantly, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. Net income has grown impressively, indicating strong profitability. EBITDA margin is high, showcasing operational strength, and EBIT margin is solid, further emphasizing the company’s profitability trajectory.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is strong with a healthy equity base, as evidenced by a high equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved over the years, with total debt being eliminated by 2024, indicating prudent financial management. Return on equity has increased, showing efficient use of equity capital. However, the company should maintain caution in asset management to ensure ongoing stability.

Cash Flow

Lundin Gold's cash flow statements indicate strong operational cash flow generation, consistently covering free cash flow needs. Free cash flow growth has been positive, supporting reinvestment and shareholder returns. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests effective cash earnings conversion. The company has improved its cash reserves, enhancing financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.77B	1.19B	902.52M	815.67M	733.33M	358.16M
Gross Profit	1.26B	840.37M	571.78M	500.39M	463.24M	225.27M
EBITDA	1.22B	766.60M	527.06M	465.57M	428.71M	207.19M
Net Income	765.47M	426.05M	179.46M	73.56M	221.43M	-47.16M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.28B	1.53B	1.47B	1.67B	1.69B	1.51B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	687.87M	349.20M	268.02M	363.40M	262.61M	79.59M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	305.65M	667.97M	739.98M	857.09M
Total Liabilities	441.09M	311.18M	512.40M	816.78M	870.64M	918.50M
Stockholders Equity	1.84B	1.22B	955.81M	852.08M	814.48M	586.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	831.93M	579.99M	471.16M	372.13M	360.76M	54.88M
Operating Cash Flow	922.18M	662.39M	519.39M	426.14M	417.75M	113.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-104.52M	-93.50M	-53.48M	-60.07M	-63.11M	-79.64M
Financing Cash Flow	-550.11M	-487.49M	-561.23M	-264.10M	-171.43M	-27.77M

Lundin Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 115.73
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 115.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 113.84, above the 50-day MA of 109.57, and above the 200-day MA of 80.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUG.

Lundin Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DPM	85 Outperform	C$9.98B	18.70	16.54%	0.51%	37.75%	59.97%
LUG	82 Outperform	C$28.14B	29.26	55.69%	2.47%	57.32%	126.96%
AGI	77 Outperform	C$24.22B	32.79	14.27%	0.25%	34.64%	115.75%
EDV	76 Outperform	C$18.73B	25.56	16.65%	2.31%	73.23%	―
IMG	73 Outperform	C$14.04B	27.75	10.09%	―	56.17%	-51.73%
EQX	73 Outperform	C$15.96B	297.80	1.41%	―	90.17%	-91.76%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Lundin Gold Corporate Events

Lundin Gold Announces Major Drilling Success at Fruta del Norte

Lundin Gold Inc. has announced significant results from its 2025 drilling programs at the Fruta del Norte gold mine, confirming larger mineralized systems at both Fruta del Norte South and FDN East. The company achieved the highest-grade intercept ever drilled at FDNS, advancing towards an initial Mineral Reserve estimate in early 2026. The exploration also revealed FDN East as a new epithermal vein deposit, indicating substantial growth potential and prompting an expansion of the 2025 drilling program to 120,000 meters with 17 rigs. These developments are expected to enhance Lundin Gold’s resource base and extend the mine’s life, benefiting stakeholders and reinforcing the company’s industry position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:LUG) stock is a Hold with a C$108.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lundin Gold stock, see the TSE:LUG Stock Forecast page.