Lundin Gold (TSE:LUG)
TSX:LUG
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Lundin Gold
(TSX:LUG)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$127.00
▲(13.99% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, accelerating free cash flow, and a zero-debt balance sheet) and a constructive earnings outlook with record results and ongoing dividends/reserve growth. Offsetting this, technical indicators show weak momentum with the stock trading below key moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is only moderately supportive given the ~24.8 P/E despite a ~2.9% yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Lundin's ~2025 operating cash flow (~$1.0B) and free cash flow (~$926M) demonstrate durable internal funding capacity. Persistent FCF supports sustained dividends, exploration and brownfield/greenfield investment, reducing reliance on external financing through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Declining head grades
Management's noted grade decline to high single digits forces the company to maintain output via higher throughput rather than higher grades. That structural shift requires sustained mill expansion or more mining, increasing operating intensity and long‑term pressure on unit costs and margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Lundin's ~2025 operating cash flow (~$1.0B) and free cash flow (~$926M) demonstrate durable internal funding capacity. Persistent FCF supports sustained dividends, exploration and brownfield/greenfield investment, reducing reliance on external financing through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Lundin Gold (LUG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$26.93B
Dividend Yield2.47%
Average Volume (3M)818.91K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.8
Beta (1Y)1.91
Revenue Growth57.32%
EPS Growth126.96%
CountryCA
Employees1,893
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.33
Shares Outstanding241,715,320
10 Day Avg. Volume903,066
30 Day Avg. Volume818,912
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.28
Price to Book (P/B)14.70
Price to Sales (P/S)11.03
P/FCF Ratio20.75
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$113.24Price Target Upside1.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)6.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$3.41B
Lundin Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lundin Gold Inc. operates as a mining company in Canada. The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and three construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 64,270 hectares located in Southeast Ecuador. It ...
How the Company Makes Money
Lundin Gold primarily makes money by producing and selling gold from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when gold doré (and, where applicable, associated by-products such as silver) is sold to counterparties, typically under offtake or sa...
Lundin Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance for 2025 — record production, record quarterly and annual financial metrics, robust cash flow generation ($926M FCF), a healthy balance sheet ($630M cash at year-end), continued dividends and substantial exploration success including FDNS being added to reserves. Lowlights were largely manageable or developmental in nature: cost metrics rose relative to guidance due to elevated realized gold prices (raising royalties/profit sharing), anticipated grade decline requiring higher throughput, potential for higher development/mining costs at FDNS, and some near-term uncertainty on expansion capex and timing. On balance, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, with the company positioned to fund growth while returning capital to shareholders.Positive Updates
Record Production and Strong Operational Performance
Fruta del Norte produced ~498,315 ounces of gold in 2025 and sold ~503,000 ounces; mill processed over 1.8 million tonnes for the year with a record average throughput of 5,009 tonnes per day, and Q4 mill throughput averaged 5,271 tpd (a 14% increase vs Q4 2024). Full-year production was inside guidance (490,000–525,000 oz).
Negative Updates
Cost Metrics Above Guidance Driven by Higher Realized Gold Price
Reported cash operating costs and AISC were above 2025 guidance; management attributed this primarily to the guidance being based on a $2,500/oz gold price assumption while average realized gold price was $3,594/oz (an increase of ~ $1,100), which increased royalties and statutory profit sharing. Management quantified an impact of roughly $110/oz on cost metrics (vs the ~$60/oz assumption used in guidance).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Strong Operational Performance
Fruta del Norte produced ~498,315 ounces of gold in 2025 and sold ~503,000 ounces; mill processed over 1.8 million tonnes for the year with a record average throughput of 5,009 tonnes per day, and Q4 mill throughput averaged 5,271 tpd (a 14% increase vs Q4 2024). Full-year production was inside guidance (490,000–525,000 oz).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that for 2026 they intend to achieve their 2026 production and unit‑cost guidance and to average ~5,500 tonnes per day (with a mine‑to‑mill expansion study evaluating options to increase processing beyond 5,500 tpd), will complete a record 133,000‑meter exploration program, will proceed with underground development at FDNS with nonsustaining capital of about $30–35 million in 2026, and plans to make an integrated mine‑to‑mill investment decision in 2026 (with FDNS expected to meaningfully impact production over the next 3–4 years); they reiterated focus on health, safety and environmental performance, commitment to their dividend framework (Q4 dividend of $1.15/share, ~ $278 million payable March 26), and noted that every $100/oz change in the gold price alters cash operating costs and AISC by ~$10/oz.Lundin Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
91
Very Positive
Cash Flow
87
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.81B | 1.19B | 902.52M | 815.67M | 733.33M |
| Gross Profit | 1.19B | 840.37M | 571.78M | 500.39M | 463.24M |
| EBITDA | 1.26B | 766.60M | 527.06M | 465.57M | 428.71M |
| Net Income | 806.02M | 426.05M | 179.46M | 73.56M | 221.43M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.78B | 1.53B | 1.47B | 1.67B | 1.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 629.03M | 349.20M | 268.02M | 363.40M | 262.61M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 305.65M | 667.97M | 739.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 422.26M | 311.18M | 512.40M | 816.78M | 870.64M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.36B | 1.22B | 955.81M | 852.08M | 814.48M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 964.59M | 579.99M | 471.16M | 372.13M | 360.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.05B | 662.39M | 519.39M | 426.14M | 417.75M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -98.93M | -93.50M | -53.48M | -60.07M | -63.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -667.28M | -487.49M | -561.23M | -264.10M | -171.43M |
Lundin Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
111.41
Price Trends
109.14
Positive
110.67
Positive
95.50
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.71
Negative
55.62
Neutral
87.28
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:LUG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 111.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 105.15, above the 50-day MA of 109.14, and above the 200-day MA of 95.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -1.71 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.28 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:LUG.
Lundin Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | C$11.43B | 15.49 | 19.82% | 0.51% | 37.75% | 59.97% | |
78 Outperform | C$26.93B | 24.83 | 60.01% | 2.47% | 57.32% | 126.96% | |
78 Outperform | C$26.89B | 18.00 | 22.48% | 0.25% | 34.64% | 115.75% | |
75 Outperform | C$15.66B | 14.03 | 18.40% | ― | 56.17% | -51.73% | |
74 Outperform | C$20.47B | 18.05 | 16.65% | 2.31% | 73.23% | ― | |
62 Neutral | C$16.02B | 39.29 | 4.51% | ― | 90.17% | -91.76% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:LUG
Lundin Gold
111.41
70.62
173.12%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.