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Endeavour Mining Ord (TSE:EDV)
TSX:EDV
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Endeavour Mining
(TSX:EDV)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$82.00
▼(-1.56% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/31/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance led by strong free cash flow generation and stable leverage, reinforced by positive earnings-call guidance and shareholder return momentum. The rating is tempered by mixed near-term technicals and a less compelling valuation (higher P/E), alongside cost-related risks highlighted on the call.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained, high free cash flow provides durable funding for growth projects, shareholder returns, and debt reduction. This cash generation reduces refinancing risk, supports capital allocation flexibility, and underpins long-term balance sheet resilience across cycles.
Balance Sheet Strength
Moderate leverage and a strong equity base give the company financial flexibility to fund development projects and absorb commodity volatility. A balanced capital structure lowers refinancing pressure and supports sustained investment in Tier-1 growth opportunities.
Project Advancement (Assafou)
Securing the environmental permit is a structural milestone that de-risks a Tier-1 development, enabling definitive feasibility work and potential long-term production growth. Successful execution would materially extend reserves and bolster future cash flow profile.
Negative Factors
Elevated All-In Sustaining Costs
Persistently higher sustaining costs compress per-ounce economics and reduce margin resilience. Over time this can lower free cash flow per ounce, strain returns on new projects, and increase sensitivity to cost inflation or weaker gold cycles.
Mana Mine Cost Pressures
Operational cost overruns at a core asset can erode consolidated margins and free cash flow. Resolving power and capex drivers may require sustained investment or efficiency programs, posing execution risk to near- and medium-term profitability.
Working Capital Strain from VAT Delays
Prolonged VAT refund delays tie up cash and increase short-term financing needs, weakening liquidity and potentially raising financing costs. Country-specific administrative risk can persist, affecting cash conversion and capital allocation until resolved.
Endeavour Mining (EDV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$20.22B
Dividend Yield2.31%
Average Volume (3M)833.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.2
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth73.23%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees5,659
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.27
Shares Outstanding242,728,240
10 Day Avg. Volume815,195
30 Day Avg. Volume833,364
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)1.64
Price to Sales (P/S)1.66
P/FCF Ratio17.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$97.45Price Target Upside16.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)7.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$5.67B
Endeavour Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEndeavour Mining plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a gold mining company in West Africa. Its project portfolio includes 90% owned Houndé, Mana, Boungou, and Wahgnion mines in Burkina Faso; 85% owned Ity mine located in Côte d'Ivoire; 90% owned Sabodala-Massawa mine situated in Senegal; and Fetekro, Kalana, Bantou, Nabanga, and Afema development projects. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyEndeavour Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company's revenue model relies on extracting gold ore from its mines, processing it into gold bullion, and selling it in the global market. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of gold bars, which are sold to various customers, including bullion banks and gold traders. Additionally, Endeavour benefits from hedging strategies that can stabilize cash flows by locking in gold prices. The company also engages in partnerships and joint ventures that can enhance its exploration capabilities and operational efficiencies, further contributing to its earnings. The overall profitability is influenced by factors such as gold market prices, production costs, and operational efficiency.
Endeavour Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial performance: record free cash flow, significant margin expansion, rapid deleveraging and record shareholder returns, underpinned by a robust growth and exploration pipeline (Assafou, BIOX improvements, satellite targets). Notable near-term headwinds include a decline in reported reserves/resources (partly timing-related), impairments, a retroactive increase in Côte d'Ivoire royalties and a 2026 cost uptick driven mainly by planned stripping at Houndé and Lafigué. Overall, the positive cash generation, balance sheet strength and clear capital return commitment materially outweigh the lowlights, which are largely manageable or timing-related.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Cash Generation and Profitability
Generated record free cash flow of $1.2 billion in 2025 (up 269% YoY), equivalent to $955 per ounce produced; realized gold price of $3,244/oz; adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion (up 75% YoY) and adjusted net earnings of $782 million (up 244% YoY).
Strong Production Performance
Produced 1.2 million ounces in 2025 (production up 10% YoY). Q4 production was 298,000 ounces (increase of 34,000 oz vs prior quarter). Achieved the top half of guidance and has met or beaten guidance 12 times in the last 13 years.
Margin Expansion
All-in sustaining margin expanded to $1,811/oz for the year (up 60% vs 2024). Q4 all-in sustaining margin increased to $2,225/oz, a $547 increase quarter-on-quarter.
Rapid Deleveraging and Strong Liquidity
Net debt reduced by $574 million during the year; year-end leverage of 0.07x net debt/EBITDA (well below through-the-cycle target of 0.5x). Gross debt reduced by $511 million and liquidity of over $1.1 billion available.
Record Shareholder Returns and Increased Commitment
Returned a record $435 million to shareholders in 2025 ($360 per ounce), 93% above minimum commitment. Since program start returned $1.6 billion (83% above minimum). Committed to a minimum $1 billion dividend over 2026–2028 and indicated potential for at least another ~$1 billion of supplemental dividends and buybacks at current gold prices.
Operational and Safety Excellence
Sector-leading safety performance with a long-term injury frequency rate (LTIFR) of 0.07. Operational drivers include full-year contribution from Sabodala-Massawa BIOX and Lafigué projects, BIOX throughput/recovery improvements and Lafigué plant running above nameplate.
Growth Pipeline and Exploration Success
On track for a 2030 production target of 1.5 million ounces (27% organic growth). Assafou feasibility study near completion with key permits approved and target first gold in H2 2028. Discovered 1.5 million ounces during 2025 and more than 22 million ounces of measured & indicated resource discovered over 10 years at a discovery cost <$25/oz. M&I resources increased by 13% at Assafou (maiden Pala Trend 3).
Improving Quarterly Operational Cash Flow
Q4 operating cash flow of $609 million (up 97% vs Q3). Q4 adjusted EBITDA $681 million (up 46% vs prior quarter) and Q4 free cash flow $476 million (up 187% vs Q3).
Negative Updates
Reserves and Resource Decline
Proved & probable (P&P) reserves decreased 10% (down 1.8 million ounces) to 16.6 million ounces due to 1.4 million ounces of production depletion and reserve model optimizations. Measured & indicated resources decreased 4% (down 1.1 million ounces) to 25 million ounces; discoveries only partially offset depletion.
Higher Costs Forecast for 2026
All-in sustaining costs expected to increase in 2026 driven primarily by waste stripping at Houndé and Lafigué (processing lower grades and reliance on stockpiles), the Côte d'Ivoire sliding scale royalty increase from 6% to 8%, and a weaker USD/EUR FX assumption. Management noted ~15% of the AISC increase is from royalties and FX, with ~85% from mine sequencing/stripping and stockpile drawdown.
Exploration Impairments and Other Charges
Recorded $193 million of impairments largely across exploration properties (including Bantou, Nabanga and Kalana) and $44 million of other expenses including $37 million of incremental retroactive royalties in Côte d'Ivoire. Net losses on financial instruments totaled $62 million (realized losses on gold collars).
Reserve Reporting Lag at Key Mines
Sabodala and Ity reserves were not updated using the higher $1,900/oz price because pit shells were not updated in time; full benefit of higher gold prices to reserves is expected only after pit shell updates later in the year, creating near-term uncertainty in reported reserves.
Short-Term Production Drag at Specific Mines
Houndé and Lafigué are entering phases of higher stripping and lower grades in 2026, causing slightly lower production and higher costs in the near term; management expects grade and cost improvements in 2027 once stripping phases complete.
Regulatory and Fiscal Risk
Retroactive royalty increase in Côte d'Ivoire materially impacted costs in 2025 and the company flagged the potential for similar fiscal pressure elsewhere (Senegal discussions not definitive), creating a risk to future margins and project economics.
Company Guidance
Endeavour guided that after a record 2025 (production 1.2M oz at AISC $1,433/oz; royalty‑adjusted AISC $1,305/oz; realized gold price $3,244/oz) the group expects 2026 production to be relatively stable, but all‑in sustaining costs to rise (driven mainly by waste stripping at Houndé and Lafigué, the Côte d’Ivoire sliding‑scale royalty increase from 6% to 8%, and a weaker USD/EUR assumption), with costs expected to improve from 2027 as stripping completes; key metrics from 2025 include adjusted EBITDA $2.3B (up 75% YoY), adjusted net earnings $782M (up 244% YoY), free cash flow $1.156B (≈$955/oz and up 269% YoY), Q4 production 298k oz, Q4 adjusted EBITDA $681M, Q4 operating cash flow $609M and Q4 free cash flow $476M, net debt/EBITDA of 0.07x at year‑end with >$1.1B liquidity, P&P reserves of 16.6M oz (down 10%) and M&I resources of 25M oz (down 4%) after 1.5M oz of discoveries in 2025; management reiterated a minimum $1B dividend commitment for 2026–28 (based on $3,000/oz) with the potential to supplement that with at least another ~$1B of buybacks/dividends at current spot prices, a 2030 production target of 1.5M oz (≈27% organic growth), and progress on Assafou (feasibility study imminent, first gold targeted H2 2028).Endeavour Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Solid fundamentals supported by strong cash generation (free cash flow growth 15.64% TTM; operating cash flow to net income 1.41) and healthy operating efficiency (gross margin 43.40%, EBITDA margin 44.65%). Revenue growth is positive (5.52% TTM) and leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity 0.40), but overall profitability remains a constraint (net margin 6.22%, ROE 8.06%).Income Statement
Endeavour Mining's income statement shows a strong performance with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 5.52%, indicating a positive trend in sales. The gross profit margin of 43.40% and EBITDA margin of 44.65% reflect efficient cost management and strong operational performance. However, the net profit margin of 6.22% suggests room for improvement in profitability. Overall, the company demonstrates robust growth and operational efficiency, but profitability could be enhanced.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Endeavour Mining reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40, indicating a balanced use of debt and equity financing. The return on equity (ROE) of 8.06% shows a reasonable return for shareholders, though there is potential for improvement. The equity ratio of 55.69% suggests a solid equity base, providing financial stability. While the company maintains a healthy financial structure, enhancing ROE could further strengthen shareholder value.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Endeavour Mining's cash flow statement highlights a strong free cash flow growth rate of 15.64% TTM, reflecting effective cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.41 indicates robust cash flow relative to earnings, and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.56 suggests efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The company demonstrates excellent cash flow management, supporting its financial health and operational flexibility.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.90B | 2.68B | 2.11B | 2.07B | 2.64B | 1.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.79B | 868.70M | 745.30M | 759.70M | 1.50B | 750.60M |
| EBITDA | 1.99B | 857.90M | 864.70M | 1.20B | 1.14B | 522.70M |
| Net Income | 492.30M | -300.20M | -208.90M | -57.30M | 215.50M | 73.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.56B | 5.51B | 5.86B | 6.41B | 6.77B | 3.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 292.00M | 418.60M | 517.20M | 962.30M | 906.20M | 644.97M |
| Total Debt | 803.40M | 1.17B | 1.11B | 871.80M | 893.00M | 725.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.13B | 2.52B | 2.31B | 2.33B | 2.39B | 1.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.10B | 2.71B | 3.23B | 3.66B | 3.92B | 2.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 902.60M | 257.60M | -116.10M | 503.70M | 643.60M | 507.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.44B | 943.30M | 646.50M | 1.02B | 1.17B | 748.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -488.30M | -630.00M | -820.80M | -521.40M | -511.70M | -160.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -439.10M | -276.60M | -385.00M | -431.10M | -70.71M |
Endeavour Mining Technical Analysis
Positive
83.30
Price Trends
80.41
Positive
70.73
Positive
58.34
Positive
Market Momentum
2.88
Positive
47.25
Neutral
9.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EDV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 83.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.78, above the 50-day MA of 80.41, and above the 200-day MA of 58.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.88 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:EDV.
Endeavour Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $11.53B | 10.22 | 30.76% | 0.42% | 51.00% | 532.40% | |
78 Outperform | C$28.34B | 18.00 | 22.06% | 0.25% | 34.64% | 115.75% | |
75 Outperform | $17.42B | 14.03 | 17.65% | ― | 56.17% | -51.73% | |
70 Outperform | C$20.22B | 15.15 | 16.65% | 2.31% | 73.23% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $9.53B | 14.58 | 12.22% | 1.71% | 34.31% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $17.70B | 39.29 | 2.53% | ― | 90.17% | -91.76% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
83.30
53.72
181.61%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.