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Endeavour Mining Ord (TSE:EDV)
TSX:EDV
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Endeavour Mining
(TSX:EDV)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$82.00
▼(-3.87% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/31/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance led by strong free cash flow generation and stable leverage, reinforced by positive earnings-call guidance and shareholder return momentum. The rating is tempered by mixed near-term technicals and a less compelling valuation (higher P/E), alongside cost-related risks highlighted on the call.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Generation
Sustained, high free cash flow provides durable funding for growth projects, shareholder returns, and debt reduction. This cash generation reduces refinancing risk, supports capital allocation flexibility, and underpins long-term balance sheet resilience across cycles.
Balance Sheet Strength
Moderate leverage and a strong equity base give the company financial flexibility to fund development projects and absorb commodity volatility. A balanced capital structure lowers refinancing pressure and supports sustained investment in Tier-1 growth opportunities.
Project Advancement (Assafou)
Securing the environmental permit is a structural milestone that de-risks a Tier-1 development, enabling definitive feasibility work and potential long-term production growth. Successful execution would materially extend reserves and bolster future cash flow profile.
Negative Factors
Elevated All-In Sustaining Costs
Persistently higher sustaining costs compress per-ounce economics and reduce margin resilience. Over time this can lower free cash flow per ounce, strain returns on new projects, and increase sensitivity to cost inflation or weaker gold cycles.
Mana Mine Cost Pressures
Operational cost overruns at a core asset can erode consolidated margins and free cash flow. Resolving power and capex drivers may require sustained investment or efficiency programs, posing execution risk to near- and medium-term profitability.
Working Capital Strain from VAT Delays
Prolonged VAT refund delays tie up cash and increase short-term financing needs, weakening liquidity and potentially raising financing costs. Country-specific administrative risk can persist, affecting cash conversion and capital allocation until resolved.
Endeavour Mining (EDV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$20.70B
Dividend Yield2.31%
Average Volume (3M)833.36K
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.1
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth73.23%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees5,659
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.42
Shares Outstanding242,728,240
10 Day Avg. Volume815,195
30 Day Avg. Volume833,364
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.33
Price to Book (P/B)1.64
Price to Sales (P/S)1.66
P/FCF Ratio17.21
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$97.00Price Target Upside13.72% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)7.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$5.58B
Endeavour Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionEndeavour Mining plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a gold mining company in West Africa. Its project portfolio includes 90% owned Houndé, Mana, Boungou, and Wahgnion mines in Burkina Faso; 85% owned Ity mine located in Côte d'Ivoire; 90% owned Sabodala-Massawa mine situated in Senegal; and Fetekro, Kalana, Bantou, Nabanga, and Afema development projects. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyEndeavour Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company's revenue model relies on extracting gold ore from its mines, processing it into gold bullion, and selling it in the global market. Key revenue streams include the direct sale of gold bars, which are sold to various customers, including bullion banks and gold traders. Additionally, Endeavour benefits from hedging strategies that can stabilize cash flows by locking in gold prices. The company also engages in partnerships and joint ventures that can enhance its exploration capabilities and operational efficiencies, further contributing to its earnings. The overall profitability is influenced by factors such as gold market prices, production costs, and operational efficiency.
Endeavour Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 13, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Endeavour Mining presented a strong financial and operational performance with significant free cash flow generation and shareholder returns. However, higher costs and specific challenges, particularly regarding VAT refunds in Burkina Faso and cost management at the Mana mine, balanced out the positive aspects. The outlook for the Assafou project and sector-leading ESG performance were notable highlights.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Free Cash Flow Generation
Year-to-date free cash flow generation reached a record $680 million, with nearly $1 billion generated over the past 12 months, resulting in a 19% free cash flow yield from the start of Q4 last year.
Increased Shareholder Returns
Endeavour returned $233 million to shareholders so far this year, already exceeding the minimum commitment, with expectations to return a minimum of $346 million for the complete year.
Improved Operational Performance
Year-to-date production of 911,000 ounces, with strong Q4 outlook positioning Endeavour to achieve the top half of its production guidance.
Environmental Permit Approval for Assafou Project
Significant progress made with the Assafou project in Côte d'Ivoire, including receiving the environmental permit approval, marking a significant milestone towards full project approval.
Sector-Leading ESG Performance
Sustainalytics improved the company's score, reiterating Endeavour as the best-rated gold producer in the sector for ESG.
Negative Updates
Higher All-In Sustaining Costs
Year-to-date all-in sustaining costs of $1,362 per ounce, impacted by $103 per ounce due to higher gold prices affecting royalty costs.
Challenges in Burkina Faso VAT Refunds
Delayed VAT refunds in Burkina Faso, with opportunities being explored to resolve this through factoring solutions in 2026.
Mana Mine Cost Challenges
Mana mine costs expected to be above the top end of guidance due to reliance on self-generated power and higher sustaining capital.
Company Guidance
During Endeavour Mining's Third Quarter 2025 Results Webcast, the company provided guidance indicating strong operational and financial performance, with year-to-date production of 911,000 ounces and an all-in sustaining cost of $1,362 per ounce, on track to meet their guidance. The company achieved 82% of the low end of its production range, maintaining a low lost time injury frequency rate and expecting improved operational performance in Q4. The year-to-date free cash flow was a record $680 million, with nearly $1 billion generated over the past 12 months, supporting balance sheet strength and reducing net debt to 0.21x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. Endeavour Mining returned $233 million to shareholders so far in 2025, exceeding their minimum commitment, and plans to announce an updated shareholder returns program in January 2026. The company is also advancing its growth projects, including the Tier 1 Assafou project in Côte d'Ivoire, with the environmental permit approved and a definitive feasibility study expected in early 2026, aiming for first gold in H2 2028.Endeavour Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Solid fundamentals supported by strong cash generation (free cash flow growth 15.64% TTM; operating cash flow to net income 1.41) and healthy operating efficiency (gross margin 43.40%, EBITDA margin 44.65%). Revenue growth is positive (5.52% TTM) and leverage is moderate (debt-to-equity 0.40), but overall profitability remains a constraint (net margin 6.22%, ROE 8.06%).Income Statement
Endeavour Mining's income statement shows a strong performance with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue growth rate of 5.52%, indicating a positive trend in sales. The gross profit margin of 43.40% and EBITDA margin of 44.65% reflect efficient cost management and strong operational performance. However, the net profit margin of 6.22% suggests room for improvement in profitability. Overall, the company demonstrates robust growth and operational efficiency, but profitability could be enhanced.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Endeavour Mining reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40, indicating a balanced use of debt and equity financing. The return on equity (ROE) of 8.06% shows a reasonable return for shareholders, though there is potential for improvement. The equity ratio of 55.69% suggests a solid equity base, providing financial stability. While the company maintains a healthy financial structure, enhancing ROE could further strengthen shareholder value.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Endeavour Mining's cash flow statement highlights a strong free cash flow growth rate of 15.64% TTM, reflecting effective cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.41 indicates robust cash flow relative to earnings, and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.56 suggests efficient conversion of earnings into cash. The company demonstrates excellent cash flow management, supporting its financial health and operational flexibility.80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.90B | 2.68B | 2.11B | 2.07B | 2.64B | 1.42B |
| Gross Profit | 1.79B | 868.70M | 745.30M | 759.70M | 1.50B | 750.60M |
| EBITDA | 1.99B | 857.90M | 864.70M | 1.20B | 1.14B | 522.70M |
| Net Income | 492.30M | -300.20M | -208.90M | -57.30M | 215.50M | 73.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.56B | 5.51B | 5.86B | 6.41B | 6.77B | 3.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 292.00M | 418.60M | 517.20M | 962.30M | 906.20M | 644.97M |
| Total Debt | 803.40M | 1.17B | 1.11B | 871.80M | 893.00M | 725.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.13B | 2.52B | 2.31B | 2.33B | 2.39B | 1.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.10B | 2.71B | 3.23B | 3.66B | 3.92B | 2.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 902.60M | 257.60M | -116.10M | 503.70M | 643.60M | 507.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.44B | 943.30M | 646.50M | 1.02B | 1.17B | 748.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -488.30M | -630.00M | -820.80M | -521.40M | -511.70M | -160.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -439.10M | -276.60M | -385.00M | -431.10M | -70.71M |
Endeavour Mining Technical Analysis
Neutral
85.30
Price Trends
79.79
Positive
70.21
Positive
57.87
Positive
Market Momentum
4.17
Negative
49.64
Neutral
60.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EDV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 85.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.11, above the 50-day MA of 79.79, and above the 200-day MA of 57.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 4.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:EDV.
Endeavour Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $12.09B | 14.12 | 30.76% | 0.42% | 51.00% | 532.40% | |
78 Outperform | $29.99B | 24.26 | 22.06% | 0.25% | 34.64% | 115.75% | |
75 Outperform | $18.07B | 19.18 | 17.65% | ― | 56.17% | -51.73% | |
70 Outperform | C$20.70B | 30.06 | 16.65% | 2.31% | 73.23% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $10.03B | 17.70 | 12.22% | 1.71% | 34.31% | ― | |
62 Neutral | C$18.57B | 71.01 | 2.53% | ― | 90.17% | -91.76% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
85.30
55.87
189.87%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.