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Endeavour Mining Ord (TSE:EDV)
TSX:EDV

Endeavour Mining (EDV) AI Stock Analysis

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Endeavour Mining

(TSX:EDV)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
C$50.00
▲(18.68%Upside)
Endeavour Mining's strong cash flow generation, robust technical momentum, and positive earnings call guidance are significant strengths driving the stock score. However, persistent profitability issues and concerns about valuation due to negative earnings impact the overall rating.
Positive Factors
Asset Base and Growth Opportunities
Endeavour remains a top pick given its largely steady and low-cost asset base with a healthy outlook for organic growth opportunities.
Free Cash Flow and Capital Returns
The company has reached FCF inflection following the completion of the Lafigué (Côte d'Ivoire) and the Sabodala-Massawa BIOX (Senegal) projects and provides a peer-leading capital returns outlook.
Free Cash Flow Yield
Endeavour still boasts a sector-leading FCF/EV yield of ~16% for 2025.
Negative Factors
Operational Challenges
While there are operational challenges at Sabodala-Massawa and Mana that still need to be addressed, management's guidance does incorporate some of the risks.
Valuation Compared to Peers
Endeavour continues to trade at a discount to its peers, but there is potential for outperformance through delivery of steady operational performance.

Endeavour Mining (EDV) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Endeavour Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionEndeavour Mining (EDV) is a leading global gold producer with operations focused primarily in West Africa. The company engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold properties, with a portfolio that includes several fully owned gold mines and development projects. Endeavour Mining is committed to sustainable and responsible mining practices, ensuring operational excellence and value creation for its stakeholders.
How the Company Makes MoneyEndeavour Mining makes money primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company's revenue model is based on the extraction and processing of gold ore from its mines, followed by the sale of the refined gold on the global market. Key revenue streams include the production and sale of gold bars and other gold products. Endeavour Mining's earnings are significantly influenced by the market price of gold, production levels, and operational efficiencies. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to optimize production and expand its resource base, contributing to its profitability.

Endeavour Mining Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 12.80%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong quarter for Endeavour Mining, with record free cash flow, a solid financial position, and robust production figures. Despite challenges like VAT receivables in Burkina Faso and potential tax and royalty increases, the company is on track to meet its guidance and deliver increased shareholder returns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Free Cash Flow Generation
Endeavour generated a record $409 million of free cash flow during the first quarter of 2025, representing $1,199 for every ounce of gold produced. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of free cash flow growth.
Strong Gold Production
Produced 341,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,129 per ounce, placing the company on track to achieve its full-year guidance.
Improved Financial Position
The company reduced its net debt by $354 million, with leverage significantly reduced to 0.22x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, well below the long-term target of 0.5x.
Record Shareholder Returns
Increased dividends and share buybacks, with $52 million of share buybacks completed year-to-date, reflecting a commitment to delivering increased shareholder returns.
Positive Exploration Outcomes
The Assafou project is on track for a resource update in the second half of the year, with a focus on increasing the endowment and advancing the definitive feasibility study.
Strong Safety Performance
The group reported a lost time injury frequency rate (LTIFR) of only 0.05 during the quarter, indicating strong safety measures.
Successful Commissioning of Solar Plant
Completed the commissioning of a solar plant at Sabodala-Massawa to support the improvement in emissions intensity and reduce fuel consumption and power costs.
Negative Updates
Slightly Lower Production Expectation for 2H 2025
Production is expected to be slightly lower in the second half of the year due to mining sequence and seasonal impacts.
Challenges with VAT Receivables in Burkina Faso
Endeavour continues to face challenges with VAT receivables, resulting in a small impairment during the quarter.
Potential Increase in Royalty Rates
Discussions in Côte d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso regarding potential increases in royalty rates could impact future financials.
Higher Cash Taxes Expected in Q2 2025
The company anticipates significantly higher cash taxes in Q2, which will impact cash flow.
Company Guidance
During Endeavour Mining's Q1 2025 results call, the company provided comprehensive guidance and metrics reflecting a strong start to the year, with production totaling 341,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,129 per ounce. They achieved a record free cash flow of $409 million, with a free cash flow margin of 39%, contributing to a significant reduction in net debt by $354 million, bringing leverage down to 0.22x net debt to adjusted EBITDA, well below the long-term target of 0.5x. The company also reported a 12% quarter-over-quarter growth in adjusted EBITDA to $613 million. Endeavour is on track to exceed its minimum dividend commitment for 2025 after already conducting $52 million in share buybacks year-to-date, contributing to a total return commitment of $277 million for 2025. Looking forward, the company anticipates slightly lower production in the second half of the year but aims to maintain cost discipline and operational efficiencies. Endeavour is also focused on its long-term growth pipeline, with its Assafou project targeting a 35% production growth to 1.5 million ounces by 2030, and it plans to provide a resource update in the second half of 2025.

Endeavour Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Endeavour Mining demonstrates strong revenue growth and cash flow management, with robust EBITDA margins. However, persistent net losses leading to negative net profit and return on equity reduce the overall financial performance score.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Endeavour Mining has demonstrated significant revenue growth, with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $3.25 billion, marking a 21.26% growth compared to the previous year. Despite strong revenue and gross profit margins of 39.17% for TTM, the company faced challenges in profitability, indicated by a negative net profit margin of -3.29% due to consistent net losses over several periods. The EBITDA margin is robust at 39.29%, indicating strong operating performance before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Endeavour Mining's balance sheet reflects stability with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41, indicating conservative leverage. The equity ratio stands at 49.03%, showcasing strong equity backing relative to assets, although slightly lower compared to the previous year. However, the company's return on equity is negative due to net losses, signaling challenges in delivering shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
The company exhibits strong cash flow generation with a TTM operating cash flow of $1.38 billion. Free cash flow has grown substantially by 197.00% year-over-year, showcasing effective management of capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high, reflecting efficient cash generation relative to accounting profits, despite net losses.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.25B2.68B2.11B2.07B2.64B1.42B
Gross Profit1.27B868.70M745.30M759.70M1.50B750.60M
EBITDA1.24B857.90M864.70M1.20B1.14B522.70M
Net Income-106.80M-300.20M-208.90M-57.30M215.50M73.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.82B5.51B5.86B6.41B6.77B3.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments761.90M418.60M517.20M962.30M906.20M644.97M
Total Debt1.16B1.17B1.11B871.80M893.00M725.47M
Total Liabilities2.63B2.52B2.31B2.33B2.39B1.64B
Stockholders Equity2.85B2.71B3.23B3.66B3.92B2.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow765.10M257.60M-116.10M503.70M643.60M507.64M
Operating Cash Flow1.38B943.30M646.50M1.02B1.17B748.93M
Investing Cash Flow-527.30M-630.00M-820.80M-521.40M-511.70M-160.11M
Financing Cash Flow-593.60M-439.10M-276.60M-385.00M-431.10M-70.71M

Endeavour Mining Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price42.13
Price Trends
50DMA
41.16
Positive
100DMA
36.90
Positive
200DMA
32.69
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.17
Positive
RSI
51.49
Neutral
STOCH
43.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:EDV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.20, above the 50-day MA of 41.16, and above the 200-day MA of 32.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:EDV.

Endeavour Mining Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSLUG
78
Outperform
$17.33B23.0147.31%4.80%34.41%139.62%
TSELD
78
Outperform
$5.82B12.728.91%41.46%187.54%
TSEDV
76
Outperform
C$10.07B-3.12%3.95%59.60%-74.74%
TSIMG
74
Outperform
C$5.83B5.1628.42%69.19%417.02%
TSBTO
74
Outperform
$6.55B-17.61%2.20%5.97%-1677.31%
TSAGI
65
Neutral
$15.43B42.647.85%0.37%37.83%24.13%
64
Neutral
€5.61B-3.1943.07%20.09%-6.05%56.22%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
42.13
12.94
44.33%
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
36.67
13.95
61.43%
TSE:LUG
Lundin Gold
72.45
51.55
246.70%
TSE:IMG
IAMGOLD
10.15
4.61
83.21%
TSE:BTO
B2Gold
4.99
1.34
36.60%
TSE:ELD
Eldorado Gold
28.35
6.42
29.27%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 06, 2025