Alamos Gold (AGI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$25.06B
• Dividend Yield: 0.25%
• Average Volume (3M): 630.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.38
• Revenue Growth: 34.64%
• EPS Growth: 115.75%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,400
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 419,834,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 619,882
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 630,105
• PEG Ratio: 0.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.58
• P/FCF Ratio: 31.90
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$66.55
• Price Target Upside: 18.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.58
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$3.66B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$68.00 ▲(21.47% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high profitability, low leverage, improving returns) and supported by constructive technical trends. It is tempered by a relatively expensive valuation (P/E ~29.7 with a modest dividend) and operational/guidance risks highlighted on the latest earnings call despite record cash generation and strong liquidity.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The company's significant revenue growth highlights its successful expansion efforts and market demand, supporting long-term financial stability.

Strong Cash Position

A strong cash position enhances financial flexibility, enabling debt reduction, share buybacks, and strategic growth investments.

Island Gold Expansion

The Island Gold expansion is set to boost production capacity, supporting long-term growth and competitive positioning in the gold market.

Negative Factors

Lowered Production Guidance

Reduced production guidance may impact short-term revenue and profitability, highlighting operational risks that could affect long-term planning.

Seismic Event Impact

Seismic events pose operational challenges, potentially increasing costs and affecting production efficiency, impacting long-term output.

Lynn Lake Project Delays

Delays in the Lynn Lake project extend the timeline for potential revenue generation, impacting strategic growth plans and resource allocation.

Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alamos gold holding oorperatief u.a. operates as a subsidiary of Alamos Gold Inc.

How the Company Makes Money

Alamos Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced at its mining operations. The company has a diversified revenue model which includes the extraction of gold ore from its mines, processing it to produce gold doré bars, and then selling these bars to various buyers, including bullion banks and precious metals traders. Key revenue streams include the gold produced from the Young-Davidson and Mulatos mines, with additional revenue from potential future operations at other projects such as the Island Gold mine. Alamos Gold also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that may enhance its operational efficiency and expand its resource base. Factors contributing to its earnings include market gold prices, operational efficiencies, and successful exploration efforts leading to new discoveries or increased resources.

Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alamos Gold has demonstrated strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability margins. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with low leverage and a strong equity position, although there is a slight increase in liabilities. Cash flow generation is solid, despite some pressure on free cash flow.

Income Statement

Alamos Gold has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $1.4 billion, marking a steady increase from $821 million in 2022. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 44.3%, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased slightly to 18.4% from 21.1% in 2024, indicating potential cost pressures or a decrease in pricing power. Despite this, the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity (ROE) stands at a healthy 7.2%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholder funds. With an equity ratio of 67.1%, the company is well-capitalized with a strong equity base. However, a slight increase in total liabilities signals the need for careful monitoring of debt levels.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.45, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow has declined from 2024, resulting in a negative free cash flow growth rate of -20.0%. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.73, suggesting efficient capital expenditure management and the ability to fund operations internally.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.51B	1.35B	1.02B	821.20M	823.60M	748.10M
Gross Profit	707.10M	595.80M	385.60M	212.30M	289.50M	272.60M
EBITDA	798.70M	735.00M	486.40M	321.20M	176.14M	387.90M
Net Income	346.70M	284.30M	210.00M	37.10M	-66.70M	144.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.54B	5.34B	4.00B	3.67B	3.62B	3.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	378.20M	351.20M	237.80M	148.40M	196.40M	264.20M
Total Debt	280.30M	286.60M	994.88K	400.00K	400.00K	500.00K
Total Liabilities	1.79B	1.75B	1.08B	953.10M	885.90M	785.00M
Stockholders Equity	3.75B	3.58B	2.92B	2.72B	2.74B	2.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	160.10M	235.80M	123.80M	-15.20M	-7.80M	67.50M
Operating Cash Flow	636.80M	661.10M	472.70M	298.50M	356.50M	368.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-480.80M	-467.10M	-351.80M	-312.70M	-357.10M	-314.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-123.90M	-89.40M	-26.00M	-28.40M	-47.30M	-15.60M

Alamos Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 55.98
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 55.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.21, above the 50-day MA of 51.12, and above the 200-day MA of 42.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AGI.

Alamos Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LUG	82 Outperform	$29.25B	30.41	55.69%	2.47%	57.32%	126.96%
AGI	77 Outperform	C$25.06B	33.66	14.27%	0.25%	34.64%	115.75%
EDV	76 Outperform	C$18.55B	27.12	16.65%	2.31%	73.23%	―
IMG	73 Outperform	C$14.70B	28.67	10.09%	―	56.17%	-51.73%
EQX	73 Outperform	$15.99B	296.63	1.41%	―	90.17%	-91.76%
ELD	72 Outperform	C$11.38B	22.25	9.54%	―	44.88%	38.67%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Alamos Gold Corporate Events

Alamos Gold Posts Record 2025 Revenues Despite Missing Production Targets

Alamos Gold reported fourth-quarter 2025 gold production of 141,500 ounces, flat quarter-on-quarter but below its revised annual guidance as full-year output reached 545,400 ounces, with weather-related disruptions and operational challenges weighing on its Canadian mines. Despite the production shortfall, the company delivered record quarterly revenue of $568 million and record annual revenue of $1.8 billion on higher realized gold prices, expanded margins, and strong free cash flow, which helped lift its cash balance to $623 million, reduce inherited Argonaut-related debt to $200 million, and fund the partial unwinding of legacy hedges and increased share buybacks as it positions for a planned step-up in production and growth from the Island Gold District in the coming years.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Declares Dividend and Announces Share Buybacks

Alamos Gold Inc. announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.025 per common share and has repurchased 928,729 shares at a cost of $28.8 million under its Normal Course Issuer Bid in November. Year-to-date, the company has returned $81 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, demonstrating its commitment to returning value to shareholders. The dividend is payable on December 18, 2025, and the company offers a Dividend Reinvestment Plan allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a discount.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Sells Turkish Projects for $470 Million

Alamos Gold Inc. has finalized the sale of its Turkish development projects, including the Kirazlı, Ağı Dağı, and Çamyurt projects, to Tümad Madencilik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş for a total cash consideration of $470 million. The transaction, which involves an initial payment of $160 million and subsequent payments on the first and second anniversaries, is secured by bank guarantees from international financial institutions. This strategic move allows Alamos to focus on its core operations and growth projects in North America, potentially enhancing its market position and financial stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Alamos Gold Completes Sale of Quartz Mountain Project

Alamos Gold Inc. has completed the sale of its option to earn a 100% interest in the Quartz Mountain Gold Project to Q-Gold Resources Ltd. The transaction includes an initial payment of $2.85 million in cash and the issuance of 13,924,702 common shares of Q-Gold to Alamos, representing a 9.99% equity interest. The remaining consideration of up to $18.15 million will be paid in cash or shares over the next three years, including guaranteed and milestone payments. This sale allows Alamos to focus on its core operations and growth projects, potentially enhancing its market positioning and operational focus.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.