Alamos Gold (TSE:AGI)
TSX:AGI
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Alamos Gold
(TSX:AGI)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$66.00
▼(-2.40% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, strong revenue momentum, and very low leverage) and a positive earnings-call outlook for higher production and lower costs later in 2026. These strengths are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and only moderate valuation support given a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & liquidity
Consistently strong operating cash flow and a large liquidity buffer provide durable funding for growth capex, sustainment, and opportunistic shareholder returns. This cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports project execution across commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Moderate free-cash-flow conversion
Significant reinvestment needs and capex intensity limit free-cash-flow conversion, constraining available cash for buybacks or higher dividends in down cycles. Sustained low conversion reduces financial flexibility if production or realized prices disappoint.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & liquidity
Consistently strong operating cash flow and a large liquidity buffer provide durable funding for growth capex, sustainment, and opportunistic shareholder returns. This cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports project execution across commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Alamos Gold (AGI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$24.92B
Dividend Yield0.25%
Average Volume (3M)926.78K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.8
Beta (1Y)2.03
Revenue Growth46.83%
EPS Growth306.46%
CountryCA
Employees2,400
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.53
Shares Outstanding419,947,080
10 Day Avg. Volume714,402
30 Day Avg. Volume926,779
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)3.66
Price to Sales (P/S)8.82
P/FCF Ratio59.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$81.89Price Target Upside21.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.81
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.82B
Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alamos gold holding oorperatief u.a. operates as a subsidiary of Alamos Gold Inc....
How the Company Makes Money
Alamos Gold generates revenue primarily by producing and selling gold. At its operating mines, the company mines ore and processes it (e.g., crushing/grinding and recovery methods such as leaching) to produce gold doré, which it sells to third-par...
Alamos Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record revenues, record operating cash flow, meaningful reserve growth (32% YoY), advancing high-return expansions (Island Gold shaft completion, Magino mill upgrades, PDA) and solid liquidity. Near-term challenges include elevated Q1 costs above guidance, operational setbacks at Young-Davidson (lower milling rates, dilution) and inflationary pressures (labor, diesel, contractor costs), but management provided clear operational actions and timelines (Island ramp, Magino throughput increases, grid connection savings, hedge eliminations) that are expected to materially reduce costs and boost production through H2 2026 and into 2027–2028. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenues and Strong Pricing
Sold 122,000 oz at an average realized price of $4,829/oz, generating record quarterly revenues of $597 million.
Negative Updates
First-Quarter Costs Above Guidance
Q1 all-in sustaining costs were $1,862/oz and total cash costs were $1,230/oz, above the first-half guidance range. Management expects ~5% reduction in AISC in Q2 and larger improvements in H2 as low-cost production increases.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenues and Strong Pricing
Sold 122,000 oz at an average realized price of $4,829/oz, generating record quarterly revenues of $597 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated it is on track with Q1 production of 124,000 oz (in line with guidance) and expects Q2 production to rise roughly 20% as Island Gold and Young‑Davidson ramp; Q1 AISC was $1,862/oz (total cash costs $1,230/oz) and management expects AISC to fall ~5% in Q2 with a more significant decline in H2 driven by higher low‑cost Island Gold output. Key operating guidance: Island Gold Q1 production 61,200 oz with underground rates at a record 1,423 tpd (ramping to 2,000 tpd in 2026, 2,400 tpd in 2027 and 3,000 tpd in 2029), Island Gold shaft at planned depth 1,381 m with commissioning early 2027, Island mill 1,260 tpd and Magino mill 7,500 tpd in Q1 (9,200 tpd recent six‑week average, targeted 10,000 tpd by Q3 and 20,000 tpd expansion by early 2028); Young‑Davidson Q1 30,000 oz with mill 6,800 tpd recovering to ~8,000 tpd and underground grades returning to the 1.90–2.05 g/t guidance; Mulatos Q1 32,700 oz and PDA on track for first production mid‑2027. Longer term, Alamos reaffirmed its path to ~800,000 oz/year by 2028 (costs down ~18% vs. 2025) and ~1,000,000 oz by 2030, highlighted year‑end reserves of 16.0 Moz (Island Gold >8 Moz), and reiterated strong financials (Q1 realized price $4,829/oz, record revenues $597M, operating cash flow before WC $338M, free cash flow $102M, cash $660M, $1.2B available liquidity) while continuing to fund growth (Q1 capex $184M: $45M sustaining, $127M growth, $11M exploration) and opportunistically reducing legacy hedges (245k/330k oz eliminated, 85k oz remain).Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.07B | 1.84B | 1.35B | 1.02B | 821.20M | 823.60M |
| Gross Profit | 1.22B | 980.26M | 595.80M | 385.60M | 212.30M | 289.50M |
| EBITDA | 1.43B | 1.11B | 735.00M | 486.40M | 321.20M | 176.14M |
| Net Income | 1.06B | 901.31M | 284.30M | 210.00M | 37.10M | -66.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 6.54B | 6.37B | 5.34B | 4.00B | 3.67B | 3.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 704.40M | 680.76M | 351.20M | 237.80M | 148.40M | 196.40M |
| Total Debt | 219.86M | 233.77M | 286.60M | 994.88K | 400.00K | 400.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 1.93B | 1.94B | 1.75B | 1.08B | 953.10M | 885.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.61B | 4.44B | 3.58B | 2.92B | 2.72B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 346.56M | 271.17M | 235.80M | 123.80M | -15.20M | -7.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 944.75M | 789.18M | 661.10M | 472.70M | 298.50M | 356.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -425.99M | -345.75M | -467.10M | -351.80M | -312.70M | -357.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -147.53M | -143.16M | -89.40M | -26.00M | -28.40M | -47.30M |
Alamos Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
67.62
Price Trends
63.53
Positive
58.75
Positive
50.30
Positive
Market Momentum
1.38
Negative
60.10
Neutral
68.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.25, above the 50-day MA of 63.53, and above the 200-day MA of 50.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AGI.
Alamos Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$23.20B | 16.89 | 68.29% | 2.47% | 49.56% | 67.17% | |
75 Outperform | C$15.07B | 7.28 | 26.05% | ― | 87.39% | 21.18% | |
74 Outperform | C$21.75B | 10.26 | 16.65% | 2.31% | 38.40% | ― | |
74 Outperform | C$15.40B | 9.18 | 10.73% | ― | 65.86% | 10.18% | |
72 Outperform | C$24.92B | 24.81 | 22.48% | 0.25% | 46.83% | 306.46% | |
64 Neutral | C$12.29B | 12.45 | 13.68% | ― | 39.21% | 76.75% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
59.34
24.64
71.01%
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46.67
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127.45%
Alamos Gold Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Alamos Gold Sets Q1 2026 Results Date and Virtual AGM
Neutral
Apr 2, 2026
Alamos Gold has scheduled the release of its first quarter 2026 financial results for April 29, 2026, after market close, followed by a management-hosted conference call on April 30 to discuss the performance. The company will also provide a playb...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alamos Gold Files NI 43-101 Technical Report for Island Gold Expansion
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
Alamos Gold has filed a technical report for the Expansion Study of its Island Gold District operation in Ontario, prepared under National Instrument 43-101 standards for mineral project disclosure. The report, which underpins previously released ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.