Alamos Gold (AGI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.96B
• Dividend Yield: 0.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 41.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: 37.83%
• EPS Growth: 24.13%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,400
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.20
• Shares Outstanding: 420,565,430
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,451,228
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,473,775
• PEG Ratio: -4.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.16
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 60.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 18.29
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.27
• 1Y Price Target: $47.09
• Price Target Upside: 32.19% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$40.00 ▲(12.30%Upside)

Alamos Gold's strong financial performance and positive corporate events are significant strengths, supporting resilience and potential for growth. However, overvaluation concerns and operational challenges temper the outlook, reflected in a moderate overall score.

Positive Factors

Asset Portfolio

Analyst maintains a Buy rating given AGI’s high quality asset portfolio, production growth, and attractive jurisdictional exposure.

Financial Management

Q1’25 free cash outflow was better than some estimates, indicating better-than-expected financial management.

Production Growth

AGI expects a significantly improved Q2 with a 14% increase in production driven by operational ramp-ups at Magino, Young-Davidson, and La Yaqui Grande.

Negative Factors

Cost Inflation

Near-term cost guidance has increased due to ongoing cost inflation and increased production from Mulatos.

Cost Management

Costs were higher than expected with cash costs of $1,193/oz, 17% higher than the $1,016/oz estimate.

Sales Volume

Q1’25 earnings miss was largely due to gold sales volume that trailed gold production volume.

Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) is a publicly traded, intermediate gold producer with a diverse portfolio of operating mines and development projects in North America. The company is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and extraction of gold with a focus on sustainable and responsible mining practices. Alamos Gold operates several mines, including the Young-Davidson and Island Gold mines in Canada, as well as the Mulatos Mine in Mexico, and is committed to delivering long-term value for its shareholders through efficient operations and strategic growth initiatives.

How the Company Makes Money

Alamos Gold makes money primarily through the sale of gold extracted from its mining operations. The company generates revenue by mining and processing gold ore, which is then refined and sold as gold bullion to various buyers, including financial institutions, gold refiners, and industrial users. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of gold from its operating mines, with additional earnings derived from the sale of by-products such as silver. Alamos Gold's financial performance is influenced by factors such as gold market prices, production costs, and operational efficiency. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which can enhance its exploration and development capabilities, thereby contributing to its overall profitability.

Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Alamos Gold demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, and cash flow generation is solid despite some pressure on free cash flow. Overall, the company shows stability and resilience in the gold industry.

Income Statement

Alamos Gold has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $1.4 billion, marking a steady increase from $821 million in 2022. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 44.3%, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased slightly to 18.4% from 21.1% in 2024, indicating potential cost pressures or a decrease in pricing power. Despite this, the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity (ROE) stands at a healthy 7.2%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholder funds. With an equity ratio of 67.1%, the company is well-capitalized with a strong equity base. However, a slight increase in total liabilities signals the need for careful monitoring of debt levels.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.45, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow has declined from 2024, resulting in a negative free cash flow growth rate of -20.0%. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.73, suggesting efficient capital expenditure management and the ability to fund operations internally.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.40B	1.35B	1.02B	821.20M	823.60M	748.10M
	Gross Profit
621.97M	595.80M	385.60M	212.30M	289.50M	272.60M
	EBIT
506.20M	561.90M	318.10M	144.60M	235.60M	227.60M
	EBITDA
755.50M	735.00M	486.40M	321.20M	176.14M	387.90M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
257.40M	284.30M	210.00M	37.10M	-66.70M	144.20M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
256.24M	351.20M	237.80M	148.40M	196.40M	264.20M
	Total Assets
4.01B	5.34B	4.00B	3.67B	3.62B	3.64B
	Total Debt
0.00	286.60M	994.88K	400.00K	400.00K	500.00K
	Net Debt
-239.95M	-40.60M	-224.80M	-129.40M	-172.10M	-220.00M
	Total Liabilities
1.05B	1.75B	1.08B	953.10M	885.90M	785.00M
	Stockholders Equity
2.95B	3.58B	2.92B	2.72B	2.74B	2.85B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
188.69M	235.80M	123.80M	-15.20M	-7.80M	67.50M
	Operating Cash Flow
631.17M	661.10M	472.70M	298.50M	356.50M	368.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
-484.30M	-467.10M	-351.80M	-312.70M	-357.10M	-314.10M
	Financing Cash Flow
-95.70M	-89.40M	-26.00M	-28.40M	-47.30M	-15.60M

Alamos Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 35.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.84, below the 50-day MA of 37.37, and above the 200-day MA of 30.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AGI.

Alamos Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LUG	78 Outperform	$15.34B	20.40	47.31%	1.76%	34.41%	139.62%
AGI	75 Outperform	$14.96B	41.32	7.85%	0.39%	37.83%	24.13%
K	75 Outperform	$24.77B	14.71	18.12%	0.84%	30.84%	188.80%
EDV	74 Outperform	C$10.13B	―	-3.12%	3.28%	59.60%	-74.74%
BTO	71 Outperform	$6.17B	―	-17.61%	4.16%	5.97%	-1677.31%
IMG	70 Outperform	C$5.60B	4.81	28.42%	―	69.19%	417.02%
Sector *	50 Neutral	$2.00B	-1.14	-21.15%	3.68%	2.17%	-31.00%

Alamos Gold Corporate Events

Alamos Gold Reports Q1 2025 Results, Eyes Stronger Production Ahead

Alamos Gold Inc. reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a production of 125,000 ounces of gold, meeting the lower end of its guidance. Despite challenges at the Magino mill and Young-Davidson, the company anticipates stronger production and lower costs in the upcoming quarters. The company is on track with its expansion projects, aiming for a production run rate of 900,000 ounces per year by 2026, with potential growth to one million ounces annually. Financially, Alamos generated $333 million in revenue, though cash flow was impacted by tax payments and share-based compensation costs. The company maintains a strong liquidity position to support its growth initiatives.

Alamos Gold Sells Quartz Mountain Project for $21 Million and Equity Stake

Alamos Gold Inc. announced the sale of its non-core Quartz Mountain Gold Project in Oregon to Q-Gold Resources Ltd. for up to $21 million and a 9.9% equity stake in Q-Gold. This transaction aligns with Alamos’ strategy to monetize non-core assets and focus on high-return growth projects like the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold and the Lynn Lake project. The deal, expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, will allow Alamos to participate in the future success of Quartz Mountain as a significant shareholder, enhancing its industry positioning and providing potential benefits to stakeholders.

Alamos Gold Schedules Q1 2025 Results Release and Annual Meeting

Alamos Gold Inc. announced that it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on April 30, 2025, followed by a conference call on May 1, 2025. Additionally, the company will hold its Annual General and Special Meeting of Shareholders virtually on May 29, 2025. These events will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder engagement.

Alamos Gold Completes Annual Filings for 2024

Alamos Gold Inc. announced the completion of its annual filings, including the 2024 annual report and audited financial statements, with the SEC and Canadian securities authorities. This filing marks a significant step in maintaining transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting the company’s operations by reinforcing investor confidence and supporting its market position.

Alamos Gold Declares Quarterly Dividend and Introduces Reinvestment Plan

Alamos Gold Inc. announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.025 per common share, continuing its 15-year streak of dividend payments, with $41 million returned to shareholders in 2024. The company also introduced a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP), allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into common shares at a 1% discount, enhancing investment opportunities without transaction costs.