Alamos Gold (TSE:AGI)
TSX:AGI
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Alamos Gold
(TSX:AGI)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$66.00
â–¼(-2.40% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (rapid recent profit growth, conservative leverage, and solid operating cash flow) and a positive technical trend (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). The latest earnings call adds support via higher production and lower-cost guidance, while valuation is the main constraint given the ~20x P/E and low dividend yield, alongside execution risk from recent operational issues and heavy near-term capital spending.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a materially larger asset/equity base give the company financial flexibility to fund growth, absorb shocks, and pursue internal funding for expansions. This conservatism reduces refinancing risk and supports sustainable dividends and buybacks over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Mill underperformance and disruptions
Sustained throughput and operational shortfalls at key mills directly raise unit costs and reduce output. These operational issues can delay production targets, compress margins, and increase the probability that growth projects under-deliver on timing and returns over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Low leverage and a materially larger asset/equity base give the company financial flexibility to fund growth, absorb shocks, and pursue internal funding for expansions. This conservatism reduces refinancing risk and supports sustainable dividends and buybacks over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Alamos Gold (AGI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$27.59B
Dividend Yield0.25%
Average Volume (3M)943.74K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.0
Beta (1Y)1.98
Revenue Growth34.64%
EPS Growth115.75%
CountryCA
Employees2,400
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding419,947,080
10 Day Avg. Volume669,109
30 Day Avg. Volume943,737
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)3.66
Price to Sales (P/S)8.82
P/FCF Ratio59.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$80.06Price Target Upside18.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)2.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.86B
Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alamos gold holding oorperatief u.a. operates as a subsidiary of Alamos Gold Inc....
How the Company Makes Money
Alamos Gold generates revenue primarily by producing and selling gold. At its operating mines, the company mines ore and processes it (e.g., crushing/grinding and recovery methods such as leaching) to produce gold doré, which it sells to third-par...
Alamos Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong financial performance (record revenue, record free cash flow), meaningful reserve growth and a clearly articulated, internally funded growth pathway anchored by a high-return Island Gold District expansion. These positives were tempered by near-term operational disruptions (severe weather, seismic rehabilitation, mill throughput issues) that resulted in production below guidance and costs above guidance in 2025. Management provided concrete remediation plans and ramp timelines (2026 production growth guidance, Magino and Island Gold ramp plans), and the balance sheet improvements plus increased shareholder returns support a constructive outlook. On balance, the positives (record results, large reserve increases, funded expansion plans and improving balance sheet) outweigh the temporary operational setbacks.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Free Cash Flow
Record annual revenue of $1.8 billion (up 34% vs 2024) and record full-year free cash flow of $352 million. Operating cash flow before changes in noncash working capital increased 27% to $924 million for the year.
Negative Updates
Production Below Guidance and Weather-Related Disruptions
2025 production of 545,000 oz was below guidance due to severe weather in late December and Canadian operational challenges. Q4 Island Gold production declined 10% QoQ to 60,000 oz; a 3-day standdown in late December impacted underground operations.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Free Cash Flow
Record annual revenue of $1.8 billion (up 34% vs 2024) and record full-year free cash flow of $352 million. Operating cash flow before changes in noncash working capital increased 27% to $924 million for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Alamos guided to a meaningful near‑term operational improvement with company production expected to increase ~12% in 2026 versus 2025, led by Island Gold Phase 3+ (Island Gold District production up ~24% to 290–330 koz in 2026) and higher Young‑Davidson output (155–175 koz in 2026), while Mulatos is guided to 125–145 koz; their 3‑year plan targets ~800 koz/yr by 2028 at nearly 20% lower all‑in sustaining costs (~$1,250/oz), and the Island Gold District expansion to 20,000 tpd (3,000 tpd underground + 17,000 tpd open pit) is expected to average 534 koz/yr over the initial 10 years at mine‑site AISC $1,025/oz (completion in 2028) with >$800M annual free cash flow at $3,200/oz (after‑tax NPV $8.2B) and NPV $12B / 69% IRR at $4,500/oz; longer term they expect to approach ~1.0 Moz/yr by the end of the decade with Lynn Lake initial production in 2029, funding all growth internally, driving lower costs and rising free cash flow, and have increased the dividend 60% commencing this quarter.Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.84B | 1.35B | 1.02B | 821.20M | 823.60M |
| Gross Profit | 980.26M | 595.80M | 385.60M | 212.30M | 289.50M |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 735.00M | 486.40M | 321.20M | 176.14M |
| Net Income | 901.31M | 284.30M | 210.00M | 37.10M | -66.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 6.37B | 5.34B | 4.00B | 3.67B | 3.62B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 680.76M | 351.20M | 237.80M | 148.40M | 196.40M |
| Total Debt | 233.77M | 286.60M | 994.88K | 400.00K | 400.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 1.94B | 1.75B | 1.08B | 953.10M | 885.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.44B | 3.58B | 2.92B | 2.72B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 271.17M | 235.80M | 123.80M | -15.20M | -7.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 789.18M | 661.10M | 472.70M | 298.50M | 356.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -345.75M | -467.10M | -351.80M | -312.70M | -357.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -143.16M | -89.40M | -26.00M | -28.40M | -47.30M |
Alamos Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
67.62
Price Trends
63.29
Positive
58.53
Positive
50.14
Positive
Market Momentum
1.26
Negative
57.38
Neutral
70.27
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.58, above the 50-day MA of 63.29, and above the 200-day MA of 50.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.27 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AGI.
Alamos Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$27.59B | 18.00 | 22.48% | 0.25% | 34.64% | 115.75% | |
78 Outperform | C$26.98B | 24.83 | 60.01% | 2.47% | 57.32% | 126.96% | |
75 Outperform | C$15.77B | 14.03 | 18.40% | ― | 56.17% | -51.73% | |
74 Outperform | C$21.46B | 18.05 | 16.65% | 2.31% | 73.23% | ― | |
67 Neutral | C$9.47B | 14.13 | 12.40% | ― | 44.88% | 38.67% | |
62 Neutral | C$16.34B | 39.29 | 4.51% | ― | 90.17% | -91.76% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
67.62
26.81
65.69%
TSE:ELD
Eldorado Gold
47.25
19.90
72.73%
TSE:IMG
IAMGOLD
26.37
15.60
144.85%
TSE:LUG
Lundin Gold
117.43
62.32
113.09%
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
91.13
52.35
134.97%
TSE:EQX
Equinox Gold
21.37
11.66
120.08%
Alamos Gold Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alamos Gold Files NI 43-101 Technical Report for Island Gold Expansion
Positive
Mar 20, 2026
Alamos Gold has filed a technical report for the Expansion Study of its Island Gold District operation in Ontario, prepared under National Instrument 43-101 standards for mineral project disclosure. The report, which underpins previously released ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alamos Gold maps 46% production lift by 2028 with Island Gold and Lynn Lake builds
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
The company issued fresh three-year guidance highlighting a plan to lift output 46% by 2028 to as much as 835,000 ounces while cutting all-in sustaining costs toward $1,200 per ounce, supported by the Island Gold shaft expansion and incremental ga...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alamos Gold Plots Major Island Gold District Expansion to Create Low-Cost Canadian Giant
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
Alamos Gold has released an Expansion Study for its Island Gold District in Ontario that outlines a major scale-up of operations, including increasing the Magino mill capacity to 20,000 tonnes per day and boosting combined underground and open-pit...
Business Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Extends High-Grade Mineralization at Island Gold and Cline-Pick, Signaling Further Reserve Growth
Positive
Feb 3, 2026
Alamos Gold has reported strong new underground and surface drilling results at its Island Gold Mine and nearby regional targets, significantly extending high-grade gold mineralization both within the main deposit and at the past-producing Cline-P...
Business Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Extends High-Grade Zones Near Infrastructure at Young-Davidson Mine
Positive
Jan 30, 2026
Alamos Gold has reported strong underground exploration results from its Young-Davidson mine in Ontario, extending higher-grade gold mineralization in multiple hanging wall zones located near existing mine infrastructure. Drilling in the South Sye...
Business Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Expands High-Grade Zones Near Infrastructure at Young-Davidson Mine
Positive
Jan 30, 2026
Alamos Gold reported new underground exploration results from its Young-Davidson mine in Ontario, highlighting extensions of higher-grade gold mineralization in multiple hanging wall zones located close to existing mine infrastructure. Drilling in...
Business Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Extends Lynn Lake Mineralization and Hits High-Grade Gold at Qiqavik
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
Alamos Gold reported encouraging results from its 2025 exploration programs at the Lynn Lake project in Manitoba and the Qiqavik Gold project in Nunavik, Quebec, highlighting continued success in extending and defining new gold mineralization at b...
Business Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Sets 2026 Investor Day to Outline Growth Plans and Updated Guidance
Positive
Jan 23, 2026
Alamos Gold announced it will host an Investor Day in Toronto on February 4, 2026, where senior management will deliver detailed presentations on the Island Gold District Expansion Study and provide updated three-year guidance. The event will also...
Business Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Expands High-Grade Sulphide Potential with New Mulatos District Drilling Results
Positive
Jan 21, 2026
Alamos Gold reported strong exploration drilling results across several targets in the Mulatos District, with high-grade gold mineralization extended beyond existing Mineral Reserves at the Puerto Del Aire (PDA) project and beyond Mineral Resource...
Financial Disclosures
Alamos Gold Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter and Year-End 2025 Results
Neutral
Jan 16, 2026
Alamos Gold has scheduled the release of its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results for after the market close on February 18, 2026, followed by a conference call with senior management on February 19 to discuss the performance. The c...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Alamos Gold Posts Record 2025 Revenues Despite Missing Production Targets
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
Alamos Gold reported fourth-quarter 2025 gold production of 141,500 ounces, flat quarter-on-quarter but below its revised annual guidance as full-year output reached 545,400 ounces, with weather-related disruptions and operational challenges weigh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.