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Alamos Gold (TSE:AGI)
TSX:AGI
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Alamos Gold (AGI) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:AGI

Alamos Gold

(TSX:AGI)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$39.00
▲(15.83%Upside)
Alamos Gold's overall score reflects a strong financial foundation and promising growth prospects, tempered by valuation concerns and short-term operational challenges. The company's robust financial health and strategic initiatives position it well for long-term growth, although current cost pressures and technical indicators suggest caution in the short term.
Positive Factors
Financial Management
Management's commitment to cost reduction through various initiatives is expected to benefit the company financially.
Operational Performance
Island Gold District remains World Class as it continues to be one of Canada's lowest cost gold mines.
Negative Factors
Earnings Performance
Q1’25 earnings miss was largely due to gold sales volume that trailed gold production volume.
Production Costs
Costs were higher than expected with cash costs of $1,193/oz, 17% higher than our $1,016/oz estimate and AISC of $1,805/oz, 10% higher than our $1,644/oz estimate.

Alamos Gold (AGI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlamos Gold (AGI) is a Canadian-based intermediate gold producer with diversified production from three operating mines in North America. The company's core operations include the Young-Davidson and Island Gold Mines in Canada, and the Mulatos Mine in Mexico. Alamos Gold is dedicated to the exploration, development, and acquisition of resource-rich gold properties, aiming to produce sustainable value and returns for its stakeholders.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlamos Gold generates revenue primarily through the mining, production, and sale of gold. The company operates three main gold mines, which contribute significantly to its total gold output. Revenue is earned from selling the gold extracted and processed from these mines in the open market. The company also engages in exploration and development projects to expand its reserves and future production capacity. Alamos Gold's earnings are influenced by various factors, including gold market prices, production costs, and operational efficiencies at its mining sites. Additionally, strategic partnerships or joint ventures in exploration and development projects can also contribute to its revenue streams.

Alamos Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -4.16%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights strong revenue and cash flow performance with successful cost management and expansion plans in motion. However, increased cost guidance and operational challenges at specific sites like Young-Davidson and Magino present notable concerns. Overall, the positive developments and strategic plans outweigh the challenges.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Cash Flow
Achieved record revenues of $438 million and strong free cash flow of $85 million. Production totaled 137,000 ounces, up 10% from the first quarter.
All-In Sustaining Costs Reduction
All-in sustaining costs reduced by 18% from the first quarter, with further declines expected in the second half of the year.
Island Gold District Expansion
The Island Gold District is expected to become one of the largest, lowest cost, and most profitable gold mines in Canada. A base case life of mine plan outlines average annual production of 411,000 ounces at mine site all-in sustaining costs of $915 per ounce.
Strong Free Cash Flow Projection
Ongoing free cash flow projected to exceed $1 billion annually with current gold prices, driven by Phase 3+ expansion and other projects.
Successful Exploration Results
Exploration programs continue to yield high-grade results, particularly in the Island Gold District and the Mulatos District, indicating significant potential for growth.
Negative Updates
Increased Cost Guidance
Full year all-in sustaining costs expected to be 12% higher than originally guided, with 40% of the increase due to external factors.
Challenges at Young-Davidson
Higher-than-normal groundwater inflow affected production, resulting in downtime. Mining rates were lower than targeted levels.
Magino Mill Ramp-Up Challenges
Challenges in ramping up the Magino mill to its target throughput, though improvements have been made.
Company Guidance
During the Alamos Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call, the company reported a production of 137,000 ounces, marking a 10% increase from the first quarter and aligning with their quarterly guidance. The call highlighted a significant 18% reduction in all-in sustaining costs compared to the prior quarter, with further decreases expected as production increases. Alamos revised its full-year cost guidance, anticipating a 12% rise in all-in sustaining costs, largely due to external factors. Despite higher-than-budgeted share price compensation and royalty expenses, the company maintained its production guidance, with strong performance expected in the second half of the year. The Island Gold District emerged as a key growth driver, with a base case life of mine plan projecting an average annual production of 411,000 ounces at mine site all-in sustaining costs of $915 per ounce over 12 years. Alamos achieved record revenues of $438 million and operating cash flow of $233 million in the second quarter, while also generating strong free cash flow of $85 million. The company remains optimistic about ongoing free cash flow and production growth, with expectations to exceed $1 billion in annual free cash flow following the completion of several expansion projects.

Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alamos Gold demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and robust profitability margins. The balance sheet is solid with low leverage, although rising liabilities need monitoring. Cash flow generation is healthy despite pressure on free cash flow.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Alamos Gold has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $1.4 billion, marking a steady increase from $821 million in 2022. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 44.3%, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased slightly to 18.4% from 21.1% in 2024, indicating potential cost pressures or a decrease in pricing power. Despite this, the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity (ROE) stands at a healthy 7.2%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholder funds. With an equity ratio of 67.1%, the company is well-capitalized with a strong equity base. However, a slight increase in total liabilities signals the need for careful monitoring of debt levels.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.45, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow has declined from 2024, resulting in a negative free cash flow growth rate of -20.0%. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.73, suggesting efficient capital expenditure management and the ability to fund operations internally.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.40B1.35B1.02B821.20M823.60M748.10M
Gross Profit621.97M595.80M385.60M212.30M289.50M272.60M
EBITDA755.50M735.00M486.40M321.20M176.14M387.90M
Net Income257.40M284.30M210.00M37.10M-66.70M144.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.36B5.34B4.00B3.67B3.62B3.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments318.70M351.20M237.80M148.40M196.40M264.20M
Total Debt282.60M286.60M994.88K400.00K400.00K500.00K
Total Liabilities1.77B1.75B1.08B953.10M885.90M785.00M
Stockholders Equity3.60B3.58B2.92B2.72B2.74B2.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow188.69M235.80M123.80M-15.20M-7.80M67.50M
Operating Cash Flow631.17M661.10M472.70M298.50M356.50M368.40M
Investing Cash Flow-484.30M-467.10M-351.80M-312.70M-357.10M-314.10M
Financing Cash Flow-95.70M-89.40M-26.00M-28.40M-47.30M-15.60M

Alamos Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price33.67
Price Trends
50DMA
36.07
Negative
100DMA
36.70
Negative
200DMA
32.71
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.43
Positive
RSI
38.38
Neutral
STOCH
44.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.60, below the 50-day MA of 36.07, and above the 200-day MA of 32.71, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.43 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AGI.

Alamos Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$15.47B20.5447.31%3.40%34.41%139.62%
75
Outperform
$27.20B12.7722.05%0.75%38.34%218.80%
71
Outperform
$14.16B29.4210.18%0.41%38.30%68.57%
70
Outperform
$5.38B4.7528.42%69.19%417.02%
69
Neutral
$6.26B-17.61%3.58%5.97%-1677.31%
66
Neutral
C$10.06B-3.12%3.32%59.60%-74.74%
44
Neutral
C$963.51M-6.97-14.61%2.60%17.59%-32.64%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
33.67
9.63
40.06%
TSE:LUG
Lundin Gold
64.13
41.27
180.51%
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
22.17
10.16
84.64%
TSE:IMG
IAMGOLD
9.36
4.00
74.63%
TSE:BTO
B2Gold
4.66
0.84
22.12%
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
41.60
13.39
47.47%

Alamos Gold Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alamos Gold Achieves Record Cash Flow in Q2 2025 Amid Strong Production and Lower Costs
Positive
Jul 30, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. reported a strong second quarter in 2025, with a 10% increase in production and an 18% reduction in all-in sustaining costs, resulting in record cash flow from operations and substantial free cash flow of $85 million. The company anticipates further production growth and cost reductions in the latter half of the year, driven by improvements in the Island Gold District and other operations, positioning Alamos for significant growth in production and cost efficiency in the coming years.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Mining Companies Unite for Manitoba Wildfire Relief
Positive
Jun 26, 2025

In a collaborative effort to support communities affected by wildfires in northern Manitoba, Alamos Gold Inc., along with Vale Base Metals and Hudbay Minerals Inc., has donated C$1.25 million to the Canadian Red Cross. This donation aims to assist with evacuation, recovery, and rebuilding efforts, providing essential services such as shelter, food, and mental health support. The initiative underscores the companies’ commitment to the communities they operate in, highlighting their role in aiding long-term recovery and resilience projects. The Canadian Red Cross continues to work with various governmental and Indigenous leaders to ensure effective distribution of aid.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Unveils High-Grade Discoveries at Island Gold Mine
Positive
Jun 24, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has announced significant findings from its exploration drilling at the Island Gold Mine, revealing high-grade gold mineralization in both the main deposit and surrounding structures. These discoveries not only extend the known mineral reserves but also highlight potential for further expansion, particularly with high-grade intersections at nearby past-producing mines, which could enhance the company’s growth prospects and operational capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Unveils Ambitious Plan for Island Gold District
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has announced its Base Case Life of Mine Plan for the Island Gold District, projecting it to become one of Canada’s largest and most cost-effective gold mines. The plan outlines significant growth in mineral reserves and operational efficiencies, with expectations of further expansion and increased profitability through ongoing resource conversion and exploration. The plan anticipates an average annual gold production of 411,000 ounces starting in 2026, with a low-cost structure and a long-life operation supported by a growing mineral reserve base. An Expansion Study is expected later in 2025, which could further enhance the operation’s scale and profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Alamos Gold Announces Board Changes and Meeting Results
Positive
May 30, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced the results of its Annual General and Special Meeting of Shareholders, highlighting a significant change in its Board of Directors. David Gower retired from the board, and Alexander Christopher, Chana Martineau, and Richard McCreary were appointed as new members. These appointments bring extensive expertise in mineral exploration, Indigenous economic investment, and financial advisory, potentially strengthening Alamos Gold’s strategic direction and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Declares Quarterly Dividend and Launches Reinvestment Plan
Positive
May 29, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.025 per common share, continuing its 16-year streak of dividend payments, with $21 million returned to shareholders in 2025. The company has also introduced a dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP), allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into common shares at a 1% discount to the market price, enhancing shareholder value and potentially increasing investment in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Declares Quarterly Dividend and Introduces Reinvestment Plan
Positive
May 29, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. has announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.025 per common share, continuing its 16-year streak of dividend payments, with $21 million returned to shareholders in 2025. The company has also introduced a dividend reinvestment plan (DRIP), allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into additional shares at a 1% discount, enhancing shareholder value and investment growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AGI) stock is a Buy with a C$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Alamos Gold stock, see the TSE:AGI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 31, 2025