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Alamos Gold (TSE:AGI)
TSX:AGI

Alamos Gold (AGI) AI Stock Analysis

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Alamos Gold

(TSX:AGI)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$40.00
▲(12.30%Upside)
Alamos Gold's strong financial performance and positive corporate events are significant strengths, supporting resilience and potential for growth. However, overvaluation concerns and operational challenges temper the outlook, reflected in a moderate overall score.
Positive Factors
Asset Portfolio
Analyst maintains a Buy rating given AGI’s high quality asset portfolio, production growth, and attractive jurisdictional exposure.
Financial Management
Q1’25 free cash outflow was better than some estimates, indicating better-than-expected financial management.
Production Growth
AGI expects a significantly improved Q2 with a 14% increase in production driven by operational ramp-ups at Magino, Young-Davidson, and La Yaqui Grande.
Negative Factors
Cost Inflation
Near-term cost guidance has increased due to ongoing cost inflation and increased production from Mulatos.
Cost Management
Costs were higher than expected with cash costs of $1,193/oz, 17% higher than the $1,016/oz estimate.
Sales Volume
Q1’25 earnings miss was largely due to gold sales volume that trailed gold production volume.

Alamos Gold (AGI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Alamos Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAlamos Gold Inc. (AGI) is a publicly traded, intermediate gold producer with a diverse portfolio of operating mines and development projects in North America. The company is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and extraction of gold with a focus on sustainable and responsible mining practices. Alamos Gold operates several mines, including the Young-Davidson and Island Gold mines in Canada, as well as the Mulatos Mine in Mexico, and is committed to delivering long-term value for its shareholders through efficient operations and strategic growth initiatives.
How the Company Makes MoneyAlamos Gold makes money primarily through the sale of gold extracted from its mining operations. The company generates revenue by mining and processing gold ore, which is then refined and sold as gold bullion to various buyers, including financial institutions, gold refiners, and industrial users. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of gold from its operating mines, with additional earnings derived from the sale of by-products such as silver. Alamos Gold's financial performance is influenced by factors such as gold market prices, production costs, and operational efficiency. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which can enhance its exploration and development capabilities, thereby contributing to its overall profitability.

Alamos Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -9.62%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected a mix of positive and negative developments. While there are solid growth plans and production potential, current operational challenges and higher costs present significant concerns.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Gold Production and Cost Improvement
Produced 125,000 ounces of gold, expecting a 20% decrease in all-in sustaining costs in the second quarter and further decreases into the second half of the year.
Expansion and Growth Projects
Advancing high-return, fully-funded projects like Lynn Lake, with a 31% increase in global mineral reserves to 14 million ounces.
Strategic Growth in Production Capacity
Target production of 600,000 ounces in 2025, with expected growth to 700,000 ounces annually by 2027 and 900,000 ounces by 2028.
Strong Cash Position
Reported net earnings of $15 million and adjusted net earnings of $60 million, with a strong cash position of $290 million and nearly $800 million in total liquidity.
Island Gold and Magino Integration
Successful batch test of Island Gold's high-grade ore processed with Magino ore, achieving 96% recovery.
Negative Updates
Higher Than Expected Costs
Total cash costs of $1,193 per ounce and all-in sustaining costs of $1,805 per ounce above guidance due to higher costs at Young-Davidson and Magino, increased royalties, and share-based compensation.
Challenges with Magino Mill
Milling rates lower than planned due to ore flow design issues, impacting production and costs.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow negative $20 million, impacted by $53 million of cash taxes paid and settlement of prepayment obligations.
Operational Challenges at Young-Davidson
Lower production due to equipment availability and mining sequence, impacting output.
Company Guidance
During Alamos' first quarter 2025 conference call, John McCluskey, CEO, provided detailed guidance highlighting several key metrics. The company produced 125,000 ounces of gold, hitting the lower end of their quarterly guidance, with a notable performance from Island Gold. They expect an increase in production and a 20% decrease in all-in sustaining costs (AISC) in the second quarter, with further reductions anticipated in the second half of the year. Alamos aims to produce approximately 600,000 ounces in 2025, with a target of reaching 700,000 ounces annually by 2027 and 900,000 ounces by 2028, as they expand operations. AISC is expected to trend lower to around $1,200 per ounce, with a projected margin exceeding $2,000 per ounce at current gold prices, supporting over $1 billion in annual free cash flow. The company also announced a 31% increase in global mineral reserves to 14 million ounces, with Island Gold’s reserves and grades increasing significantly. Their organic growth projects, including Lynn Lake and the Phase 3+ Expansion, are fully funded and set to support further production growth and cost reductions.

Alamos Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Alamos Gold demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and improved profitability margins. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, and cash flow generation is solid despite some pressure on free cash flow. Overall, the company shows stability and resilience in the gold industry.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Alamos Gold has demonstrated robust revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $1.4 billion, marking a steady increase from $821 million in 2022. The gross profit margin improved significantly to 44.3%, showcasing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased slightly to 18.4% from 21.1% in 2024, indicating potential cost pressures or a decrease in pricing power. Despite this, the company maintains strong EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08, indicating conservative leverage. The return on equity (ROE) stands at a healthy 7.2%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholder funds. With an equity ratio of 67.1%, the company is well-capitalized with a strong equity base. However, a slight increase in total liabilities signals the need for careful monitoring of debt levels.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.45, indicating robust cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow has declined from 2024, resulting in a negative free cash flow growth rate of -20.0%. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.73, suggesting efficient capital expenditure management and the ability to fund operations internally.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.40B1.35B1.02B821.20M823.60M748.10M
Gross Profit
621.97M595.80M385.60M212.30M289.50M272.60M
EBIT
506.20M561.90M318.10M144.60M235.60M227.60M
EBITDA
755.50M735.00M486.40M321.20M176.14M387.90M
Net Income Common Stockholders
257.40M284.30M210.00M37.10M-66.70M144.20M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
256.24M351.20M237.80M148.40M196.40M264.20M
Total Assets
4.01B5.34B4.00B3.67B3.62B3.64B
Total Debt
0.00286.60M994.88K400.00K400.00K500.00K
Net Debt
-239.95M-40.60M-224.80M-129.40M-172.10M-220.00M
Total Liabilities
1.05B1.75B1.08B953.10M885.90M785.00M
Stockholders Equity
2.95B3.58B2.92B2.72B2.74B2.85B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
188.69M235.80M123.80M-15.20M-7.80M67.50M
Operating Cash Flow
631.17M661.10M472.70M298.50M356.50M368.40M
Investing Cash Flow
-484.30M-467.10M-351.80M-312.70M-357.10M-314.10M
Financing Cash Flow
-95.70M-89.40M-26.00M-28.40M-47.30M-15.60M

Alamos Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price35.62
Price Trends
50DMA
37.37
Negative
100DMA
34.35
Positive
200DMA
30.57
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.50
Negative
RSI
46.70
Neutral
STOCH
73.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AGI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 35.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.84, below the 50-day MA of 37.37, and above the 200-day MA of 30.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AGI.

Alamos Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSLUG
78
Outperform
$15.34B20.4047.31%1.76%34.41%139.62%
TSAGI
75
Outperform
$14.96B41.327.85%0.39%37.83%24.13%
TSK
75
Outperform
$24.77B14.7118.12%0.84%30.84%188.80%
TSEDV
74
Outperform
C$10.13B-3.12%3.28%59.60%-74.74%
TSBTO
71
Outperform
$6.17B-17.61%4.16%5.97%-1677.31%
TSIMG
70
Outperform
C$5.60B4.8128.42%69.19%417.02%
50
Neutral
$2.00B-1.14-21.15%3.68%2.17%-31.00%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
35.62
12.74
55.68%
TSE:LUG
Lundin Gold
64.97
45.69
236.89%
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
20.48
9.68
89.61%
TSE:IMG
IAMGOLD
9.47
3.99
72.81%
TSE:BTO
B2Gold
4.76
1.13
31.20%
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
42.92
14.81
52.69%

Alamos Gold Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Alamos Gold Reports Q1 2025 Results, Eyes Stronger Production Ahead
Positive
Apr 30, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a production of 125,000 ounces of gold, meeting the lower end of its guidance. Despite challenges at the Magino mill and Young-Davidson, the company anticipates stronger production and lower costs in the upcoming quarters. The company is on track with its expansion projects, aiming for a production run rate of 900,000 ounces per year by 2026, with potential growth to one million ounces annually. Financially, Alamos generated $333 million in revenue, though cash flow was impacted by tax payments and share-based compensation costs. The company maintains a strong liquidity position to support its growth initiatives.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Sells Quartz Mountain Project for $21 Million and Equity Stake
Positive
Apr 3, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced the sale of its non-core Quartz Mountain Gold Project in Oregon to Q-Gold Resources Ltd. for up to $21 million and a 9.9% equity stake in Q-Gold. This transaction aligns with Alamos’ strategy to monetize non-core assets and focus on high-return growth projects like the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold and the Lynn Lake project. The deal, expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, will allow Alamos to participate in the future success of Quartz Mountain as a significant shareholder, enhancing its industry positioning and providing potential benefits to stakeholders.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
Alamos Gold Schedules Q1 2025 Results Release and Annual Meeting
Neutral
Apr 1, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced that it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on April 30, 2025, followed by a conference call on May 1, 2025. Additionally, the company will hold its Annual General and Special Meeting of Shareholders virtually on May 29, 2025. These events will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder engagement.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Alamos Gold Completes Annual Filings for 2024
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced the completion of its annual filings, including the 2024 annual report and audited financial statements, with the SEC and Canadian securities authorities. This filing marks a significant step in maintaining transparency and regulatory compliance, potentially impacting the company’s operations by reinforcing investor confidence and supporting its market position.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Alamos Gold Declares Quarterly Dividend and Introduces Reinvestment Plan
Positive
Feb 27, 2025

Alamos Gold Inc. announced a quarterly dividend of US$0.025 per common share, continuing its 15-year streak of dividend payments, with $41 million returned to shareholders in 2024. The company also introduced a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP), allowing shareholders to reinvest dividends into common shares at a 1% discount, enhancing investment opportunities without transaction costs.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.