Kinross Gold Corp. (TSE:K)
TSX:K
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Kinross Gold
(TSX:K)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$45.00
▼(-6.02% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (2025 profitability and cash flow strength alongside a de-risked balance sheet). Earnings-call commentary is supportive due to reaffirmed production and enhanced shareholder returns, though tempered by cost inflation and permitting/timing risks. Technicals are mixed (near-term softness but longer-term uptrend), while valuation is broadly average with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, large operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Over 2–3 years this cash generation supports project funding and buybacks without heavy external financing, enhancing resilience through cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising unit costs
Structural cost pressures from inflation and higher royalties compress margins and raise break-even prices. If persistent, higher unit costs reduce free cash flow sensitivity to gold prices and limit the company's ability to fund projects or sustain elevated shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained, large operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Over 2–3 years this cash generation supports project funding and buybacks without heavy external financing, enhancing resilience through cycles.
Read all positive factors
Kinross Gold (K) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$54.95B
Dividend Yield0.43%
Average Volume (3M)3.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.2
Beta (1Y)2.22
Revenue Growth36.41%
EPS Growth144.79%
CountryCA
Employees8,447
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding1,197,584,700
10 Day Avg. Volume2,254,066
30 Day Avg. Volume3,217,587
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)4.01
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio13.37
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$61.55Price Target Upside28.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$13.64B
Kinross Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania. It is also involv...
How the Company Makes Money
Kinross makes money primarily by producing and selling gold from its mining operations. Revenue is recognized when refined gold (and, where applicable, doré or concentrates) is delivered to customers under sales contracts, with realized pricing ge...
Kinross Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational delivery, record cash generation, a strengthened balance sheet, aggressive shareholder returns, and solid project and reserve/resource progress. These positives were tempered by an expected increase in unit costs driven by inflation and higher royalties, site-level sequencing impacts raising near-term cash costs at some operations, sizeable near-term tax cash outflows, and ongoing permitting/timing risk for major projects. Overall, management portrays confidence in sustaining production, reinvesting selectively in high-return projects and returning capital to shareholders while acknowledging controllable and uncontrollable cost pressures.Positive Updates
Record Production and Strong Operational Performance
Produced just over 2,000,000 ounces in 2025 (484,000 ounces in Q4), in line with guidance and reaffirmed production guidance of ~2,000,000 ounces for 2026–2028 (evenly split quarterly ~490,000–510,000 oz). Paracatu produced >600,000 oz (601,000 oz full year) and Tasiast produced 503,000 oz, together accounting for ~1,100,000 oz (>50% of production).
Negative Updates
Guided Cost Increases for 2026 — AISC Up ~10%
2026 guidance: cost of sales $13.60/oz and AISC $17.30/oz at $4,500/oz gold. AISC guidance represents an expected ~10% increase vs. 2025 driven by higher royalties (~4% or ~$55/oz), inflation (~5% or ~$75/oz) and ~1% from mine-sequencing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Production and Strong Operational Performance
Produced just over 2,000,000 ounces in 2025 (484,000 ounces in Q4), in line with guidance and reaffirmed production guidance of ~2,000,000 ounces for 2026–2028 (evenly split quarterly ~490,000–510,000 oz). Paracatu produced >600,000 oz (601,000 oz full year) and Tasiast produced 503,000 oz, together accounting for ~1,100,000 oz (>50% of production).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Kinross reaffirmed a stable multi‑year production profile of 2,000,000 ounces in 2026–2028 (and through the end of the decade), with production expected to be relatively evenly split at roughly 490,000–510,000 ounces per quarter; at a $4,500/oz gold price the company is guiding cost of sales of $13.60/oz and all‑in sustaining costs of $17.30/oz (AISC about +10% vs 2025 driven ~5% inflation ≈ $75/oz, ~4% higher royalties ≈ $55/oz and ~1% mine‑sequencing), while cash costs are expected to rise ~20% YoY (half from inflation/royalties, half from sequencing and reclassification of stripping), capital expenditures are guided at $1,500,000,000 in 2026 (≈$1,050,000,000 non‑sustaining and $450,000,000 sustaining) with 2027–28 capex broadly in line, the company plans to return about 40% of free cash flow to shareholders via dividends and buybacks (dividend raised by $0.02/share or +14% following a prior +17% increase for a cumulative +33%), expects heavier Q1 cash outflows (over $400,000,000 of tax payments related to 2025 plus semi‑annual interest) and will commence the share buyback program next week.Kinross Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.17B | 5.15B | 4.24B | 3.46B | 3.73B |
| Gross Profit | 3.40B | 1.88B | 1.16B | 515.40M | 1.02B |
| EBITDA | 4.27B | 2.60B | 1.76B | 945.40M | 854.61M |
| Net Income | 2.43B | 948.80M | 416.30M | -605.20M | 221.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.39B | 10.86B | 10.49B | 10.39B | 10.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.75B | 621.33M | 360.35M | 428.01M | 542.17M |
| Total Debt | 777.38M | 1.45B | 2.25B | 2.64B | 1.68B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.71B | 3.86B | 4.34B | 4.51B | 3.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.56B | 6.86B | 6.05B | 5.82B | 6.57B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.57B | 1.28B | 507.00M | 242.20M | 313.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.78B | 2.45B | 1.61B | 1.05B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.04B | -1.18B | -1.01B | -1.60B | -1.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.59B | -1.01B | -549.00M | 437.50M | -623.20M |
Kinross Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
47.88
Price Trends
44.47
Positive
43.33
Positive
36.38
Positive
Market Momentum
1.06
Negative
63.39
Neutral
80.93
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:K, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.06, above the 50-day MA of 44.47, and above the 200-day MA of 36.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:K.
Kinross Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$54.95B | 9.24 | 30.66% | 0.43% | 36.41% | 144.79% | |
78 Outperform | C$27.59B | 18.00 | 22.48% | 0.25% | 34.64% | 115.75% | |
78 Outperform | C$26.98B | 24.83 | 60.01% | 2.47% | 57.32% | 126.96% | |
75 Outperform | C$15.77B | 14.03 | 18.40% | ― | 56.17% | -51.73% | |
74 Outperform | C$21.46B | 18.05 | 16.65% | 2.31% | 73.23% | ― | |
62 Neutral | C$16.34B | 39.29 | 4.51% | ― | 90.17% | -91.76% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
47.88
27.34
133.07%
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Kinross Gold Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Kinross to Host Virtual Update on Key North American Gold Projects
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
Kinross Gold has announced it will provide an update on its Round Mountain Phase X, Kettle River-Curlew and Bald Mountain Redbird 2 gold projects during a virtual technical presentation and QA session on January 15, 2026, which will be accessible ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.