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Kinross Gold Corp. (TSE:K)
TSX:K
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Kinross Gold
(TSX:K)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$57.00
▲(13.34% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (2025 profitability and cash flow strength alongside a de-risked balance sheet). Earnings-call commentary is supportive due to reaffirmed production and enhanced shareholder returns, though tempered by cost inflation and permitting/timing risks. Technicals are mixed (near-term softness but longer-term uptrend), while valuation is broadly average with a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, large operating cash flow and record free cash flow provide durable funding for sustaining/growth capex, debt reduction and shareholder returns. This cash strength supports reinvestment and buybacks over multiple years, improving optionality despite cyclical commodity exposure.
Low leverage / strong balance sheet
Material deleveraging and a conservative capital structure reduce refinancing and liquidity risk, making the company resilient through commodity cycles. Low net debt supports investment in projects, flexibility on capital allocation and a higher margin of safety for operations over the medium term.
Stable production profile
A stable ~2Moz annual production target provides predictable output and underpins forward cash-flow visibility. Combined with sizable reserves and active project pipeline, this steadiness supports long-term planning, steady returns and the ability to finance growth or shareholder distributions.
Negative Factors
Rising unit costs (AISC)
Structural cost pressure from inflation and rising royalties will compress margins unless offset by higher realized gold prices or productivity gains. Sustained higher AISC reduces free cash flow per ounce and limits excess capital for growth or returns over several years if the cost trend persists.
Permitting & project timing risk
Major project value depends on timely permits and approvals; delays can push out production, raise carry costs and defer expected cash-flow and NPV. Prolonged permitting risk undermines the planned growth profile and the timing of returns from high-IRR projects.
Cyclical profitability & FCF conversion
Earnings and cash conversion have shown material volatility across cycles; lower FCF conversion implies ongoing capex and working-capital drag. This cyclical sensitivity means earnings can revert materially in down markets, constraining long-term predictability of returns and balance-sheet strengthening.
Kinross Gold (K) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$60.34B
Dividend Yield0.43%
Average Volume (3M)5.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.4
Beta (1Y)1.94
Revenue Growth36.41%
EPS Growth144.79%
CountryCA
Employees8,447
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding1,199,800,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,313,512
30 Day Avg. Volume5,168,184
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.09
Price to Book (P/B)4.01
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio13.37
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$57.63Price Target Upside14.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)4.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$13.10B
Kinross Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania. It is also involved in the extraction and processing of gold-containing ores; reclamation of gold mining properties; and production and sale of silver. Kinross Gold Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyKinross Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold and byproducts such as silver. The company operates several mines that produce gold in various forms, including doré bars and refined bullion. The primary revenue stream comes from gold sales, which fluctuate based on market prices. Additionally, Kinross benefits from hedging strategies that can protect against price volatility. The company also engages in exploration and development of new projects, potentially expanding its resource base and future revenue streams. Partnerships with other mining companies and joint ventures can also enhance its operational capabilities and financial performance. Furthermore, Kinross's focus on cost management and operational efficiency helps to improve profit margins, contributing to overall earnings.
Kinross Gold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational delivery, record cash generation, a strengthened balance sheet, aggressive shareholder returns, and solid project and reserve/resource progress. These positives were tempered by an expected increase in unit costs driven by inflation and higher royalties, site-level sequencing impacts raising near-term cash costs at some operations, sizeable near-term tax cash outflows, and ongoing permitting/timing risk for major projects. Overall, management portrays confidence in sustaining production, reinvesting selectively in high-return projects and returning capital to shareholders while acknowledging controllable and uncontrollable cost pressures.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Production and Strong Operational Performance
Produced just over 2,000,000 ounces in 2025 (484,000 ounces in Q4), in line with guidance and reaffirmed production guidance of ~2,000,000 ounces for 2026–2028 (evenly split quarterly ~490,000–510,000 oz). Paracatu produced >600,000 oz (601,000 oz full year) and Tasiast produced 503,000 oz, together accounting for ~1,100,000 oz (>50% of production).
Record Free Cash Flow and Operating Cash Flow
Attributable free cash flow was a record $769,000,000 in Q4 and $2,500,000,000 for the full year. Adjusted operating cash flow was a record $1,100,000,000 in Q4 and $3,600,000,000 for the full year.
Margin Expansion and Strong Earnings
Margins expanded materially with management citing a 66% increase in margins versus a 43% increase in the gold price. Adjusted earnings were $0.67 per share in Q4 and $1.84 per share for the full year.
Strengthened Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Ended the year with $1,700,000,000 in cash, approximately $3,500,000,000 total liquidity and net cash of ~ $1,000,000,000 after $700,000,000 of debt repayments. No near-term debt maturities and Moody’s upgrade from Baa3 to Baa2.
Disciplined Capital Allocation and Enhanced Shareholder Returns
Announced a target to return ~40% of free cash flow to shareholders in 2026 via dividends and buybacks, increased the dividend by $0.02/share annually (14%) on top of a prior 17% increase for a total stated increase of 33%, and initiated a share buyback program (to begin imminently).
Pipeline Advancement — Three U.S. Projects Moving to Construction
Announced construction progression on three U.S. organic growth projects expected online in 2028, collectively expected to add >3,000,000 ounces (initial mine-plan inventory drilled), average AISC ~$1,660/oz, combined NPV ~$4,300,000,000 and combined IRR 59% at $4,500/oz with paybacks of <2 years.
Great Bear and Lobo Marte Progress
Great Bear AEX surface construction 80% complete; detailed engineering for main project ~35% complete with third and final phase of federal impact statement scheduled for filing end of Q1. Project designated under Ontario One Project One Process. Lobo Marte progressing baseline studies with planned EIA submission by Q2.
Reserve and Resource Additions
Added ~1,200,000 ounces of reserves before depletion (notable additions: Paracatu +700,000 oz, Bald Mountain +200,000 oz, Tasiast +200,000 oz). Grew resource base by ~1,600,000 oz M&I and ~3,400,000 oz Inferred; total resource optionality cited as ~27,000,000 oz M&I and ~17,000,000 oz Inferred.
Sustainability and Governance Achievements
Completed energy efficiency program delivering an estimated 1.5% reduction in GHG emissions via 30+ projects; philanthropic medical support in Mauritania; named top-scoring mining company in Globe & Mail governance ranking and in top 15% of companies overall.
Negative Updates
Guided Cost Increases for 2026 — AISC Up ~10%
2026 guidance: cost of sales $13.60/oz and AISC $17.30/oz at $4,500/oz gold. AISC guidance represents an expected ~10% increase vs. 2025 driven by higher royalties (~4% or ~$55/oz), inflation (~5% or ~$75/oz) and ~1% from mine-sequencing.
Higher Reported Cash Costs and Reclassification Impact
Management noted a larger year-over-year increase in cash costs (appearing ~20%) with roughly half driven by inflation and royalties and the other half by mine sequencing and a reclassification of stripping from sustaining capital into operating costs at some sites—raising near-term reported cash-cost metrics even though AISC impact is smaller.
Site-Level Operational Challenges and Cost Pressure
Certain assets experienced higher costs and lower production sequencing in the near term: Alaska Q4 cost of sales $16.73/oz (sequencing, lower Manh Choh contribution), Bald Mountain saw lower production and higher costs due to lower-grade mining at Galaxy and Royal pits, and Round Mountain processed lower-grade stockpiles resulting in higher unit costs.
Significant Near-Term Cash Outflows — Elevated Tax Payments
Q1 expected to be a higher cash outflow quarter with tax payments related to 2025 of over $400,000,000 (management noted Q1 is the highest tax payment quarter), plus semiannual interest on remaining senior notes — temporarily reducing available liquidity for immediate buybacks.
Permitting and Timing Risk for Major Projects
Great Bear main project remains subject to federal and provincial permitting (third phase of impact statement to be filed end Q1). While provincial One Project One Process designation is a positive step, final federal approvals and other permits remain critical path items and timing remains a risk to the targeted 2029 first production.
Cost Inflation and Royalty Exposure
Management expects industry-wide cost increases (inflation and higher royalties driven by higher gold prices) which are largely outside of company control and will pressure unit costs despite internal cost discipline.
Company Guidance
Kinross reaffirmed a stable multi‑year production profile of 2,000,000 ounces in 2026–2028 (and through the end of the decade), with production expected to be relatively evenly split at roughly 490,000–510,000 ounces per quarter; at a $4,500/oz gold price the company is guiding cost of sales of $13.60/oz and all‑in sustaining costs of $17.30/oz (AISC about +10% vs 2025 driven ~5% inflation ≈ $75/oz, ~4% higher royalties ≈ $55/oz and ~1% mine‑sequencing), while cash costs are expected to rise ~20% YoY (half from inflation/royalties, half from sequencing and reclassification of stripping), capital expenditures are guided at $1,500,000,000 in 2026 (≈$1,050,000,000 non‑sustaining and $450,000,000 sustaining) with 2027–28 capex broadly in line, the company plans to return about 40% of free cash flow to shareholders via dividends and buybacks (dividend raised by $0.02/share or +14% following a prior +17% increase for a cumulative +33%), expects heavier Q1 cash outflows (over $400,000,000 of tax payments related to 2025 plus semi‑annual interest) and will commence the share buyback program next week.Kinross Gold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong rebound with standout 2025 profitability (revenue up ~11.7% YoY, sharp margin expansion), record operating cash flow and free cash flow, and meaningfully reduced leverage (debt down to ~0.78B; debt/equity ~0.09x). Key risk is demonstrated cyclicality (including a 2022 loss) and free cash flow conversion that trails net income (FCF ~0.68x of NI in 2025).Income Statement
Profitability and growth strengthened materially. Annual revenue rose to ~$7.17B in 2025 (up ~11.7% YoY), while margins expanded sharply versus 2023–2024, with 2025 showing strong gross (~47.5%) and net (~33.9%) profitability. The key weakness is cyclicality: results were much weaker in 2021–2023 and turned loss-making in 2022, highlighting exposure to commodity/price and cost swings despite the recent step-up in earnings power.86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved meaningfully and the capital structure looks conservative. Total debt fell from ~2.64B (2022) to ~0.78B (2025), and debt relative to equity declined to ~0.09x in 2025 (from ~0.45x in 2022), supporting balance-sheet resilience. Equity has also grown to ~8.56B (2025). The main watch-out is that profitability (and therefore balance-sheet strengthening) has historically been volatile, with weaker returns in down years.84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong and improving: operating cash flow increased to ~$3.78B in 2025 and free cash flow to ~$2.57B, with very strong 2025 free-cash-flow growth (~70%). Cash flow has consistently exceeded reported earnings in recent years (operating cash flow was ~2.7x net income in 2025). A limitation is conversion efficiency: free cash flow remained below net income in each year shown (about ~0.68x in 2025), indicating ongoing capital spending and/or working-capital needs.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.17B | 5.15B | 4.24B | 3.46B | 3.73B |
| Gross Profit | 3.40B | 1.88B | 1.16B | 515.40M | 1.02B |
| EBITDA | 4.27B | 2.60B | 1.76B | 945.40M | 854.61M |
| Net Income | 2.43B | 948.80M | 416.30M | -605.20M | 221.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.39B | 10.86B | 10.49B | 10.39B | 10.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.75B | 621.33M | 360.35M | 428.01M | 542.17M |
| Total Debt | 777.38M | 1.45B | 2.25B | 2.64B | 1.68B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.71B | 3.86B | 4.34B | 4.51B | 3.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.56B | 6.86B | 6.05B | 5.82B | 6.57B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.57B | 1.28B | 507.00M | 242.20M | 313.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.78B | 2.45B | 1.61B | 1.05B | 1.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.04B | -1.18B | -1.01B | -1.60B | -1.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.59B | -1.01B | -549.00M | 437.50M | -623.20M |
Kinross Gold Technical Analysis
Positive
50.29
Price Trends
45.30
Positive
40.49
Positive
32.70
Positive
Market Momentum
1.26
Negative
60.32
Neutral
91.27
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:K, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 50.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.71, above the 50-day MA of 45.30, and above the 200-day MA of 32.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.27 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:K.
Kinross Gold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$30.42B | 28.00 | 55.69% | 2.47% | 57.32% | 126.96% | |
78 Outperform | C$60.34B | 18.41 | 30.96% | 0.43% | 36.41% | 144.79% | |
78 Outperform | C$31.76B | 25.11 | 22.06% | 0.25% | 34.64% | 115.75% | |
75 Outperform | C$19.55B | 20.74 | 17.65% | ― | 56.17% | -51.73% | |
70 Outperform | C$23.30B | 34.59 | 16.65% | 2.31% | 73.23% | ― | |
62 Neutral | C$20.20B | 77.22 | 2.53% | ― | 90.17% | -91.76% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:K
Kinross Gold
46.17
30.20
189.16%
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IAMGOLD
30.66
22.63
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TSE:AGI
Alamos Gold
71.43
38.06
114.08%
TSE:LUG
Lundin Gold
115.99
79.29
216.09%
TSE:EDV
Endeavour Mining
85.30
56.86
199.95%
TSE:EQX
Equinox Gold
23.56
14.35
155.81%
Kinross Gold Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Kinross to Host Virtual Update on Key North American Gold Projects
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
Kinross Gold has announced it will provide an update on its Round Mountain Phase X, Kettle River-Curlew and Bald Mountain Redbird 2 gold projects during a virtual technical presentation and Q&A session on January 15, 2026, which will be accessible via webcast and subsequently archived on the company’s website. The planned update underscores the strategic importance of these projects within Kinross’s North American portfolio and offers investors and other stakeholders additional visibility into the company’s project pipeline and future production profile.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:K) stock is a Hold with a C$33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kinross Gold stock, see the TSE:K Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.