Goodfellow (GDL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$103.47M
• Dividend Yield: 5.01%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.65K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 3.81%
• EPS Growth: -50.79%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 687
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Paper, Lumber & Forest Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 8,330,954
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,515
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,653
• PEG Ratio: -0.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.18
• P/FCF Ratio: -235.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: C$13.00 ▲(11.21% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and especially inconsistent/weak free cash flow, despite a healthy balance sheet. Technicals are mildly supportive (price above key moving averages with neutral momentum), and valuation is reasonable with a strong dividend yield, but fundamentals need more reliable cash generation for a higher score.

Positive Factors

Conservative Leverage

Goodfellow's low leverage provides financial flexibility for a cyclical lumber business. Conservative debt levels reduce refinancing risk during downturns, support capital allocation for operations or capex, and help preserve access to liquidity over a 2–6 month horizon and beyond.

Integrated Distribution & Manufacturing

Owning both distribution and manufacturing capabilities strengthens customer relationships, control over supply chains and margin capture. This vertical integration supports resilience across cycles by allowing product mix shifts, fulfillment reliability, and better capture of value-added spreads.

Value-Added & Specialty Products

A meaningful focus on specialty and value-added items supports higher-margin revenue potential versus commodity lumber. Differentiated products and processing capabilities can sustain pricing power, reduce pure commodity exposure, and deepen customer stickiness over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Generation

Persistent negative or volatile free cash flow constrains reinvestment, dividend coverage and buffer against cyclical troughs. Weak cash conversion suggests working-capital swings and elevated reinvestment needs that could pressure liquidity and strategic flexibility over coming quarters.

Margin Compression

Material margin deterioration indicates weaker pricing power, adverse input cost trends, or mix shifts toward lower-margin products. Sustained compression reduces earnings resilience, limits free cash flow recovery, and heightens sensitivity to another downturn in construction demand.

Revenue Stagnation & Cyclicality

Flat revenue across multiple years suggests limited top-line momentum and heightened exposure to housing/renovation cycles. Without sustained volume or mix improvement, profit recovery is harder, leaving results vulnerable to sector headwinds and slowing long-term growth prospects.

Goodfellow Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Goodfellow (GDL) is a leading supplier of specialty materials and products, primarily serving the aerospace, automotive, and manufacturing sectors. The company offers a diverse range of high-performance materials, including metals, plastics, and composites, as well as custom manufacturing solutions tailored to meet the specific needs of its clients. With a commitment to quality and innovation, Goodfellow plays a pivotal role in enabling its customers to achieve their project goals through reliable supply and expert technical support.

How the Company Makes Money

Goodfellow generates revenue through the sale of specialty materials and custom manufacturing services. Its key revenue streams include direct sales of raw materials such as metals, plastics, and composites to various industries, as well as value-added services like machining and fabrication. The company also benefits from long-term partnerships with manufacturers and suppliers, which provide a steady flow of materials and enhance its product offerings. Additionally, Goodfellow's focus on niche markets allows it to command premium pricing for its specialized products, further contributing to its profitability.

Goodfellow Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: the balance sheet is solid with conservative leverage (debt ~0.26x equity), but profitability has weakened with notable margin compression (gross margin ~17.3% in 2025 vs ~23.9% in 2024; net margin ~1.3% vs ~2.6%). Cash flow is the main drag due to volatility and weak cash conversion, with free cash flow still slightly negative in 2025 after a very weak 2024.

Income Statement

Revenue was essentially flat over the last two years (down slightly in 2024, then up in 2025), and profitability has compressed meaningfully versus 2021–2022. Gross margin fell to ~17.3% in 2025 from ~23.9% in 2024, and net margin declined to ~1.3% from ~2.6%, indicating weaker pricing/mix and/or higher costs. While the company remains profitable, earnings power is notably below the stronger 2021–2022 period, making the current income profile more cyclical and less resilient.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains conservative with debt at ~0.26x equity in 2025, even after rising from very low levels in 2023–2024. Equity has been stable and has grown versus 2020, supporting balance sheet flexibility. The key watch item is the upward move in debt in 2025 (from 2024), but overall capitalization still looks healthy for a cyclical products business.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has become volatile. After strong cash flow in 2021–2023 (including solid free cash flow in 2023), 2024 showed negative operating cash flow and deeply negative free cash flow, and 2025 improved to positive operating cash flow but free cash flow remained slightly negative. Cash conversion is currently weak (operating cash flow is a small fraction of net income in 2025), suggesting working-capital swings and/or elevated reinvestment needs are pressuring cash returns despite reported profitability.

Breakdown	Nov 2025	Nov 2024	Nov 2023	Nov 2022	Nov 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	542.98M	509.54M	512.82M	631.18M	615.95M
Gross Profit	94.19M	121.75M	112.36M	136.06M	136.54M
EBITDA	25.71M	29.48M	31.37M	55.63M	60.53M
Net Income	7.14M	13.37M	14.69M	32.68M	37.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	294.92M	291.86M	252.75M	246.92M	237.59M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.77M	5.31M	28.38M	3.42M	4.25M
Total Debt	53.15M	27.39M	13.23M	17.51M	24.43M
Total Liabilities	87.29M	85.65M	57.75M	60.14M	76.64M
Stockholders Equity	207.63M	206.21M	195.00M	186.78M	160.95M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-424.00K	-16.56M	39.13M	21.13M	31.91M
Operating Cash Flow	3.21M	-868.00K	42.97M	26.01M	33.28M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.22M	-15.67M	-3.66M	-4.85M	-1.34M
Financing Cash Flow	4.82M	-12.44M	-14.35M	-14.75M	-33.83M

Goodfellow Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 11.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GDL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.18, below the 50-day MA of 11.97, and above the 200-day MA of 11.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GDL.

Goodfellow Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADN	66 Neutral	C$315.23M	5.90	4.46%	7.35%	-28.86%	-48.20%
GDL	63 Neutral	C$103.47M	13.97	3.12%	5.01%	3.81%	-50.79%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
WEF	46 Neutral	C$146.13M	-1.45	-12.20%	―	2.06%	-46.23%
GFP	45 Neutral	C$59.70M	-0.24	-73.85%	―	-17.95%	-97.06%
CFF	43 Neutral	C$4.48M	-0.16	-45.26%	―	10.33%	-52.20%
CFX	43 Neutral	C$33.27M	-0.22	-6.02%	―	-15.38%	94.27%

Goodfellow Corporate Events

Goodfellow Inc. Renews Share Repurchase Program

Goodfellow Inc. has announced the renewal of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) approved by the Toronto Stock Exchange, allowing the company to repurchase up to 481,002 of its common shares over a 12-month period. This strategic move is seen as a prudent use of funds, aiming to enhance shareholder value and optimize capital allocation. The company has also renewed its automatic share purchase plan to facilitate share repurchases during periods when it cannot actively participate in the market. The impact of this decision is expected to strengthen Goodfellow’s market positioning and potentially improve its financial metrics.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GDL) stock is a Hold with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Goodfellow stock, see the TSE:GDL Stock Forecast page.