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First Nat'l Fin Corp (TSE:FN)
TSX:FN
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First National Financial (FN) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:FN

First National Financial

(TSX:FN)

Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$51.00
â–²(5.77% Upside)
First National Financial's overall score is driven by strong corporate events, including a strategic acquisition and consistent dividends. However, financial performance concerns, particularly high leverage and cash flow issues, weigh on the score. Technical indicators suggest potential overvaluation, while valuation metrics remain attractive.
Positive Factors
Earnings Growth
FN appears on track to resume earnings growth underpinned by more accommodative monetary policies and improving housing market transaction activity.
Single-Family Market Outlook
Single-family outlook remains constructive with FN guiding for increased year-over-year origination in the next two quarters.
Negative Factors
Acquisition Concerns
Downgrading To Sell on Proposed Torex Acquisition.
Consumer Yield Compression
Consumer Yield Compression Expected to Weigh on Q2/25.
Tariff and Trade Uncertainty
Tariff uncertainty may affect Canada negatively and could have an unfavorable impact to the Company, particularly if employment is affected.

First National Financial (FN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

First National Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFirst National Financial (FN) is a leading Canadian financial services company that operates primarily in the mortgage and real estate finance sectors. As one of the largest non-bank mortgage lenders in Canada, FN provides a range of financial products and services, including residential and commercial mortgages, mortgage underwriting, and investment options. The company is known for its focus on innovation and customer service, catering to a diverse clientele through its various subsidiaries and partnerships.
How the Company Makes MoneyFirst National Financial generates revenue primarily through the origination and management of mortgage loans. The company earns income from interest on these loans, as well as through fees associated with the mortgage origination process, including application fees and servicing fees. Additionally, FN earns revenue from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that it creates by pooling mortgages and selling them to investors. Significant partnerships with mortgage brokers and financial institutions also contribute to its earnings, as these relationships help expand FN's reach and increase loan origination volumes. Furthermore, FN may derive income from ancillary services related to real estate transactions, such as property insurance and appraisal services.

First National Financial Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strong growth in single-family funding and commercial mortgage originations contributing positively. However, the decrease in pre-fair market value income, net interest margin compression, and increased operating expenses present significant challenges. Despite these issues, the company remains optimistic due to strong engagement with investors and competitive rate offerings.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Single Family Funding
Total single-family funding increased 34% year-over-year, supported by Bank of Canada rate reductions and government incentives.
Commercial Mortgage Growth
Commercial mortgage originations were up 18% due to growth in insured multi-unit residential housing and support from CMHC's affordable loan programs.
MUA Growth
Managed and under administration (MUA) increased 7% year-over-year, indicating healthy operational growth.
Mortgage Investment Income Increase
Mortgage investment income increased 15%, driven by a larger balance of mortgages accumulated for securitization.
Strong Engagement and Competitive Rates
Higher engagement with third-party investors led to competitive rate offerings, increasing conventional origination space competitiveness.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Pre-Fair Market Value Income
Pre-fair market value income was $52.6 million, a 16% decrease from last year's first quarter.
Narrowed Net Interest Margin
Net interest revenue on securitized mortgages declined by 2% due to a 7 basis points compression in net interest margin.
Lower Mortgage Servicing Income
Mortgage servicing income decreased by 3% due to lower third-party underwriting revenues and lower interest earned on escrow deposits.
Higher Operating Expenses
Operating expenses increased, driven by a 7% increase in headcount and significant technology re-platform activities.
CMHC's Cautious View on Underwriting
CMHC's more cautious underwriting approach might impact new CMHC originations, despite fundamental market support.
Company Guidance
During the First National's first quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, key guidance metrics were discussed. Pre-fair market value income was reported at $52.6 million, marking a 16% decrease compared to the previous year. However, there was a notable 34% year-over-year increase in single-family funding, driven by a robust commitment pipeline. The commercial segment saw an 18% rise in originations, supported by governmental incentives and multiple Bank of Canada rate cuts. Despite a downgrade in the housing market forecast due to economic uncertainties, First National expects continued growth in originations, particularly in the single-family segment. Credit performance remained stable, with prime mortgage arrears unchanged, though Alt A arrears, while elevated compared to the prime portfolio, showed improvement month-over-month. Mortgage servicing income saw a 3% decline, influenced by lower third-party underwriting revenues and reduced interest from escrow deposits. Despite these challenges, the company maintained an annualized dividend rate of $2.5 per share, with a payout ratio of about 98%, indicating a strong foundation for future shareholder benefits.

First National Financial Financial Statement Overview

Summary
First National Financial is facing challenges with declining revenue, high leverage, and negative cash flow. Despite a strong net profit margin, the company struggles with cost management and cash conversion, and its high debt-to-equity ratio poses a significant risk.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
The company's income statement shows mixed results. While there's a noticeable decline in total revenue from $751.4 million in 2023 to $587.6 million in 2024, the net profit margin remains relatively strong at 34.6% for 2024. However, the gross profit margin is misleading as it equates to total revenue, suggesting all revenue is considered as gross profit without accounting for costs. This highlights potential issues with cost management or reporting. Additionally, EBIT and EBITDA are not reported for 2024, which limits the assessment of operating performance.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 61.5, indicating significant leverage, which is typical for the banking industry but still poses potential risk if not managed carefully. The equity ratio is low at 1.4%, suggesting limited equity buffer against liabilities. Despite these concerns, the consistency in stockholders' equity over the years provides some stability. However, the high level of total liabilities compared to equity is a notable risk factor.
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
Cash flow analysis indicates challenges with negative operating cash flow of -$763.7 million and free cash flow of -$768.1 million for 2024, reflecting potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting that the company's earnings are not translating into cash flow. This raises concerns about the sustainability of operations without external financing. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, further highlighting cash generation issues.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.37B2.35B751.40M698.99M513.63M459.87M
Gross Profit581.49M683.11M-589.24M-290.85M-391.21M-464.95M
EBITDA395.87M453.28M511.47M0.00321.91M319.63M
Net Income187.35M203.39M252.81M197.73M194.56M190.23M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets54.40B51.16B45.96B43.76B42.27B39.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.12B1.03B702.40M-51.17M-52.87M-22.92M
Total Debt49.98B45.40B40.61B38.40B36.99B35.37B
Total Liabilities53.65B50.42B45.22B38.35B37.12B38.92B
Stockholders Equity746.54M738.21M737.76M698.98M577.41M570.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow288.03M-768.10M-109.71M496.78M-434.85M-254.54M
Operating Cash Flow289.68M-763.72M-103.51M509.16M-402.89M-250.96M
Investing Cash Flow5.74M105.40M-77.45M-52.87M-12.74M145.83M
Financing Cash Flow-178.75M663.69M163.82M-556.73M133.05M220.05M

First National Financial Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price48.22
Price Trends
50DMA
44.64
Positive
100DMA
41.24
Positive
200DMA
40.22
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.95
Positive
RSI
80.68
Negative
STOCH
7.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 48.01, above the 50-day MA of 44.64, and above the 200-day MA of 40.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.95 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 80.68 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FN.

First National Financial Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
C$868.74M11.8811.84%7.30%12.10%-18.24%
70
Neutral
C$640.51M14.736.30%8.91%-10.69%-28.58%
68
Neutral
$17.89B11.9510.28%3.72%9.74%1.61%
68
Neutral
C$552.47M10.959.72%7.96%-11.04%0.44%
67
Neutral
C$442.31M11.649.14%8.48%-0.92%4.84%
60
Neutral
C$2.89B15.7424.57%6.80%13.53%-19.41%
52
Neutral
C$697.35M37.65-143.13%1.46%35.22%-1246.65%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:FN
First National Financial
48.22
13.83
40.22%
TSE:AI
Atrium Mortgage Invest
11.60
1.06
10.06%
TSE:FC
Firm Cap Mortgage Invest
12.04
1.78
17.35%
TSE:DLCG
Dominion Lending Centres, Inc. (Canada) Class A
8.90
5.20
140.54%
TSE:MKP
MCAN Mortgage
21.91
5.81
36.09%
TSE:TF
Timbercreek Financial
7.74
0.72
10.26%

First National Financial Corporate Events

Dividends
First National Financial Announces August Dividend Payment
Positive
Aug 15, 2025

First National Financial Corporation has declared its monthly dividend payment of $0.208334 per common share for August 2025, payable on September 15, 2025, to shareholders recorded by August 29, 2025. This announcement underscores First National’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and highlights its stable position in the Canadian mortgage industry, where it is a leading non-bank mortgage originator and underwriter.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FN) stock is a Hold with a C$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First National Financial stock, see the TSE:FN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
First National Financial Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Record Mortgage Volumes
Positive
Jul 29, 2025

First National Financial Corporation reported a strong second quarter for 2025, with an 8% increase in Mortgages Under Administration (MUA) to a record $159.9 billion and a 15% rise in revenue to $621.3 million. The company achieved record origination volumes, particularly in its single-family residential business, and saw its commercial segment surpass $5 billion in volumes. Despite challenges such as the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S., First National remains committed to growth, supported by investments in technology and a robust pipeline of new mortgage commitments.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FN) stock is a Hold with a C$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First National Financial stock, see the TSE:FN Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
First National Financial to be Acquired by Birch Hill and Brookfield
Positive
Jul 28, 2025

First National Financial Corporation has announced its acquisition by Birch Hill Equity Partners and Brookfield Asset Management through Regal Bidco Inc., with existing shareholders Stephen Smith and Moray Tawse maintaining a minority ownership. The transaction, valued at approximately $2.9 billion, offers a 15.2% to 22.8% premium on recent trading prices and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025. This acquisition is seen as a strategic move to leverage Birch Hill and Brookfield’s expertise in the financial services industry, aiming to enhance First National’s growth and innovation capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FN) stock is a Hold with a C$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First National Financial stock, see the TSE:FN Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
First National Financial Announces July Dividend Payment
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

First National Financial Corporation has declared a monthly dividend payment of $0.208334 per common share for July 2025, payable on August 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of July 31, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its shareholders and highlights its stable financial position as one of the leading non-bank mortgage originators and underwriters in Canada.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FN) stock is a Hold with a C$44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First National Financial stock, see the TSE:FN Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
First National Financial Corporation Announces Q2 2025 Earnings Schedule
Neutral
Jun 18, 2025

First National Financial Corporation has announced its schedule for the second quarter 2025 financial reporting, with the earnings release set for July 29, 2025, and an earnings call scheduled for July 30, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and future outlook, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FN) stock is a Hold with a C$44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First National Financial stock, see the TSE:FN Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
First National Financial Announces June 2025 Dividend Details
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

First National Financial Corporation announced its June 2025 dividend payments for common shares and Class A Series 1 and 2 Preference Shares. The dividends, payable on July 15, 2025, reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder returns. The announcement includes a set dividend rate for Series 2 Preference Shares for the upcoming quarter, indicating stable financial operations and potentially positive implications for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FN) stock is a Hold with a C$44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First National Financial stock, see the TSE:FN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 16, 2025