Cogeco Inc. SV (CGO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$727.64M
• Dividend Yield: 5.98%
• Average Volume (3M): 29.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.55
• Revenue Growth: -2.14%
• EPS Growth: 4.40%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 4,400
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Telecommunications Services
• EPS (TTM): 3.00
• Shares Outstanding: 8,040,562
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 23,272
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 29,291
• PEG Ratio: 1.88
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.67
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$66.00
• Price Target Upside: -12.54% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 10.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$2.92B

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: C$76.00 ▲(0.72% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/17/26

The score is anchored by a mixed financial profile: strong cash generation and telecom-like operating margins are offset by limited top-line momentum and high leverage. Valuation is a key positive (low P/E and high dividend yield), while technicals show an uptrend but are overextended. Earnings-call commentary was constructive on strategy and guidance, but near-term declines in revenue/EBITDA and weaker free cash flow keep risk elevated.

Positive Factors

Consistent cash generation

Reliable annual operating cash flow (~$1.0–$1.26B) and generally positive free cash flow provide a durable cushion for dividends, capex and debt reduction. This recurring cash generation underpins long-term financial flexibility even if growth is uneven.

Strong telecom operating margins

High and stable EBITDA/EBIT margins reflect the telecom subscription, bundling and low incremental-cost economics. Durable margin structure supports investment in networks and service quality while helping convert revenue into cash across economic cycles.

Disciplined capital allocation & management focus

A sustained dividend increase plus an explicit low-3x leverage target signal management discipline and alignment with shareholders. Prioritizing deleveraging before large buybacks improves long-term financial resilience and optionality for future returns.

Negative Factors

Elevated financial leverage

A debt-heavy capital structure materially raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity and constrains strategic flexibility. High leverage makes the company more exposed to macro shocks and limits room for M&A, buybacks or aggressive reinvestment until materially reduced.

Stagnant to declining revenue and thin net margins

Lack of top-line momentum plus persistently thin net margins compress the ability to fund growth internally. Over time, weak revenue trends and low net profitability reduce reinvestment capacity and magnify the impact of any cost or demand shocks on shareholder returns.

U.S. business stress and cash-flow/capex pressure

Material U.S. revenue/EBITDA declines, higher capex intensity and a sharp FCF drop weaken consolidated cash conversion. Sustained U.S. underperformance elevates execution risk, increasing reliance on Canadian earnings and slowing progress on deleveraging and strategic investments.

Cogeco Inc. SV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Cogeco Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the communications and media sectors in Canada and the United States. The company operates in two segments, Communications and Other. The Communications segment provides a range of Internet, video, and telephony services through its two-way broadband fiber networks primarily to residential customers, as well as to small and medium sized businesses under the Cogeco Connexion name in Quebec and Ontario; and Atlantic Broadband brand in the United States. The Other segment owns and operates 23 radio stations with complementary radio formats and coverage serving a range of audiences primarily across the province of Québec; and Cogeco News, a news agency. It serves primary service units, Internet, video, and telephony service customers. The company was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Cogeco Inc. generates revenue primarily through its telecommunications services. A significant portion of its income comes from subscription fees for internet, television, and telephony services offered to residential and business customers. The company's subsidiary, Atlantic Broadband, extends its market presence in the United States, contributing to its revenue streams by providing similar services. Additionally, Cogeco Media contributes to revenue through advertising sales across its network of radio stations. Partnerships with content providers, technology vendors, and infrastructure developers play a crucial role in supporting and expanding its service offerings, thereby enhancing its earning potential.

Cogeco Inc. SV Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Solid operating profitability and consistent operating cash flow/free cash flow support the business, but revenue is flat-to-down and recent net margins are thin. A highly leveraged balance sheet (debt far exceeding equity) and volatile free-cash-flow trends meaningfully constrain overall financial strength.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat to slightly down over the last several years (Annual 2025 revenue down ~2% and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a sharp decline in the provided growth figure), which limits the fundamental earnings growth story. Profitability at the operating level remains solid for the sector, with EBITDA margins consistently strong (roughly mid‑40% to high‑40s) and EBIT margins in the low‑to‑mid 20s. However, net profit margins are thin in recent years (~2–3% in 2023–TTM) and well below 2021–2022 levels, signaling higher depreciation/interest/taxes and leaving less cushion if conditions soften.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is the key constraint: total debt remains high at roughly $4.7–$5.1B versus equity under $1.0B, with debt-to-equity consistently elevated (about 4x–6x). While total assets are stable (~$9.5–$9.9B) and returns on equity are positive in most periods, the capital structure is debt-heavy, which increases sensitivity to interest rates and refinancing conditions and can restrict flexibility for acquisitions, buybacks, or accelerated reinvestment.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength. Operating cash flow is consistently around ~$1.0–$1.26B annually, and free cash flow has generally been positive and meaningful (notably improving from 2023 to 2024 and remaining solid in Annual 2025). That said, free cash flow growth is volatile (including a large decline shown in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), and free cash flow conversion versus net income appears uneven across years, suggesting periodic working-capital swings, capital intensity, or timing effects that can make year-to-year cash outcomes less predictable.

Breakdown	TTM	Aug 2025	Aug 2024	Aug 2023	Aug 2022	Aug 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.98B	3.01B	3.07B	3.08B	3.00B	2.60B
Gross Profit	1.91B	862.44M	904.15M	928.87M	897.14M	1.23B
EBITDA	1.40B	1.42B	1.37B	1.32B	1.37B	1.22B
Net Income	83.37M	84.97M	96.75M	70.63M	457.75M	439.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.90B	9.79B	9.77B	9.87B	9.47B	7.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	65.38M	75.58M	77.75M	334.59M	251.15M	368.43M
Total Debt	4.80B	4.71B	4.98B	5.11B	4.75B	3.33B
Total Liabilities	6.23B	6.19B	6.39B	6.43B	6.20B	4.64B
Stockholders Equity	887.95M	862.95M	810.44M	925.86M	919.84M	816.66M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	480.82M	515.17M	521.15M	101.98M	274.75M	436.05M
Operating Cash Flow	1.09B	1.13B	1.19B	968.21M	1.26B	1.03B
Investing Cash Flow	-606.53M	-586.48M	-848.34M	-957.88M	-2.41B	-986.24M
Financing Cash Flow	-508.42M	-539.26M	-620.09M	-32.84M	970.90M	-73.41M

Cogeco Inc. SV Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 75.46
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CGO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 75.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 71.82, above the 50-day MA of 68.25, and above the 200-day MA of 62.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.20 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.78 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CGO.

Cogeco Inc. SV Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RCI.B	75 Outperform	C$30.02B	4.04	40.24%	3.94%	2.75%	342.54%
QBR.B	73 Outperform	$13.42B	13.87	34.72%	2.69%	-0.29%	15.30%
CCA	72 Outperform	C$3.09B	7.99	10.26%	5.69%	-2.22%	-2.36%
QBR.A	71 Outperform	C$13.42B	13.87	35.34%	2.70%	-0.29%	15.30%
BCE	67 Neutral	$33.68B	4.71	―	7.42%	0.11%	7109.23%
CGO	62 Neutral	C$727.64M	5.38	10.16%	5.98%	-2.14%	4.40%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%

Cogeco Inc. SV Corporate Events

Cogeco Posts Soft Q1 Revenue but Signals U.S. Turnaround and Network Push

Cogeco Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 results broadly in line with expectations, showing a 3.8% year-on-year revenue decline to $735.6 million and a 2.5% drop in adjusted EBITDA, largely due to weaker performance in its U.S. telecommunications business, where revenue fell 8.6% amid a smaller subscriber base, a shift toward internet-only packages, and intense price competition. Despite this pressure, the company highlighted a marked improvement in U.S. subscriber trends for a second straight quarter, its best U.S. subscriber metrics in 15 quarters, and ongoing network upgrades including the rollout of 2.5 Gigabit speeds and the planned launch of an oxio-like digital brand in the U.S. next month. In Canada, Cogeco continues to grow its customer base, supported by wireless and rural network expansion, while its media segment delivered an 8.1% revenue increase on strong digital advertising, and cost efficiencies from a three-year transformation program helped lift Canadian telecom EBITDA. The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 financial guidance and noted improved credit outlooks for Cogeco Communications from both S&P and Moody’s, underscoring external confidence in its capital allocation discipline and the progress of its operational turnaround, particularly in the U.S. market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CGO) stock is a Hold with a C$65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogeco Inc. SV stock, see the TSE:CGO Stock Forecast page.

Cogeco Inc. Reports Q4 2025 Results Amidst Transformation Efforts

Cogeco Inc. reported its fourth-quarter financial results for 2025, highlighting significant growth in Canadian internet subscribers and a successful wireless rollout. The company is undergoing a three-year transformation program aimed at revenue generation and cost efficiencies, with a 7% increase in quarterly dividends. Despite a challenging market, Cogeco Media achieved revenue growth through digital advertising. However, the company’s overall revenue and adjusted EBITDA saw declines due to competitive pricing and a shift towards internet-only services, impacting both Canadian and American telecommunications segments.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CGO) stock is a Hold with a C$65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogeco Inc. SV stock, see the TSE:CGO Stock Forecast page.