Cogeco Inc. SV (TSE:CGO)
TSX:CGO
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Cogeco Inc. SV
(TSX:CGO)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
C$64.00
â–¼(-0.05% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/11/26
The score is driven by mixed fundamentals: strong cash generation and attractive valuation support the stock, but elevated leverage and declining/pressured revenue trends weigh heavily. Technically, the stock remains in a clear downtrend, while the latest earnings call reinforced near-term U.S. headwinds despite steady free cash flow guidance and deleveraging efforts.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & FCF
Consistent, meaningful operating cash flow and mid‑hundreds of millions in free cash flow provide durable internal funding for network maintenance, incremental growth projects, dividends and deleveraging. That cashability supports strategic flexibility across cycles and funds transformation investments.
Negative Factors
Elevated historical leverage
Persistently high leverage materially limits financial flexibility, raises refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity, and constrains the pace of strategic investment. Even with recent deleveraging progress, the historically elevated debt ratio is a lasting structural risk to capital allocation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation & FCF
Consistent, meaningful operating cash flow and mid‑hundreds of millions in free cash flow provide durable internal funding for network maintenance, incremental growth projects, dividends and deleveraging. That cashability supports strategic flexibility across cycles and funds transformation investments.
Read all positive factors
Cogeco Inc. SV (CGO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$598.05M
Dividend Yield5.98%
Average Volume (3M)29.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.2
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth-4.10%
EPS Growth-2.14%
CountryCA
Employees4,400
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryTelecommunications Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.12
Shares Outstanding8,040,562
10 Day Avg. Volume23,272
30 Day Avg. Volume29,291
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.88
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.19
P/FCF Ratio1.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$81.00Price Target Upside26.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)10.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.91B
Cogeco Inc. SV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Cogeco Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the communications and media sectors in Canada and the United States. The company operates in two segments, Communications and Other. The Communications segment provides a range of Internet, video...
How the Company Makes Money
Cogeco makes money primarily through recurring subscription and usage-based fees from its telecommunications operations and through advertising and related revenue from its radio broadcasting operations. In its broadband segment, the company gener...
Cogeco Inc. SV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 09, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call showed a balanced mix of positives and negatives: strong Canadian results, growing free cash flow, deleveraging progress, a $14.8M tax benefit and tangible transformation/AI momentum provide meaningful support. However, material near‑term headwinds in the U.S. (aggressive competitor promotions, regional subscriber pressure and a guidance downgrade) temper the outlook. Management is cautiously optimistic that U.S. performance will improve in H2 and that cost and transformation benefits will narrow the gap between revenue and EBITDA declines.Positive Updates
Strong Canadian Operational Performance
Canada delivered positive year-on-year adjusted EBITDA growth in Q2 and continued customer momentum; management noted that in 3 of the past 4 quarters Cogeco had the best Internet customer base percentage growth across Canadian telecom. Management expects continued year‑over‑year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in Canada for the balance of the year.
Negative Updates
U.S. Competitive Intensity and Guidance Revision
Management revised full‑year guidance to reflect greater pressure in the U.S.: consolidated revenue guidance moved to -2% to -4% (previously -1% to -3%) and adjusted EBITDA guidance moved to -1.5% to -3.5% (previously 0% to -2%). The downgrade was driven by increased competitive intensity in U.S. markets affecting both subscribers and ARPU.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Canadian Operational Performance
Canada delivered positive year-on-year adjusted EBITDA growth in Q2 and continued customer momentum; management noted that in 3 of the past 4 quarters Cogeco had the best Internet customer base percentage growth across Canadian telecom. Management expects continued year‑over‑year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth in Canada for the balance of the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management narrowed and re-based FY‑2026 guidance in constant currency: revenue is now expected to decline -2% to -4% (vs. prior -1% to -3%) and adjusted EBITDA to decline -1.5% to -3.5% (vs. prior 0% to -2%). CapEx guidance is unchanged (though the network‑expansion CapEx range was lowered) and free cash flow guidance remains unchanged (midpoint roughly $530–$540M in constant currency); guidelines are provided in constant currency since ~50% of revenue/EBITDA is U.S.‑dollar denominated. A $14.8M retroactive tax‑depreciation benefit drove a negative current tax this quarter and management now expects an FY tax rate of ~8.5% (previously ~11.5%). Leverage was 3.2x in Q2 with a target of ~3.0x by fiscal year‑end (August). Operationally, Canada is expected to deliver year‑over‑year revenue and adjusted‑EBITDA growth for the balance of the year, while the U.S. (in USD) is expected to show lower revenue and adjusted EBITDA YoY but with smaller percentage declines in H2 versus H1, and EBITDA declines are forecast to moderate versus revenue declines as cost improvements materialize.Cogeco Inc. SV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Aug 2025 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 | Aug 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.94B | 3.01B | 3.07B | 3.08B | 3.00B | 2.60B |
| Gross Profit | 1.91B | 862.44M | 904.15M | 928.87M | 897.14M | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 1.38B | 1.42B | 1.37B | 1.32B | 1.37B | 1.22B |
| Net Income | 84.16M | 84.97M | 96.75M | 70.63M | 457.75M | 439.01M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.77B | 9.79B | 9.77B | 9.87B | 9.47B | 7.54B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.74M | 75.58M | 77.75M | 334.59M | 251.15M | 368.43M |
| Total Debt | 4.72B | 4.71B | 4.98B | 5.11B | 4.75B | 3.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.11B | 6.19B | 6.39B | 6.43B | 6.20B | 4.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 886.97M | 862.95M | 810.44M | 925.86M | 919.84M | 816.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 438.75M | 515.17M | 521.15M | 101.98M | 274.75M | 436.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.01B | 1.13B | 1.19B | 968.21M | 1.26B | 1.03B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -574.83M | -586.48M | -848.34M | -957.88M | -2.41B | -986.24M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -514.18M | -539.26M | -620.09M | -32.84M | 970.90M | -73.41M |
Cogeco Inc. SV Technical Analysis
Negative
64.03
Price Trends
70.44
Negative
67.59
Negative
63.43
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.33
Positive
36.19
Neutral
34.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 64.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.93, below the 50-day MA of 70.44, and above the 200-day MA of 63.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CGO.
Cogeco Inc. SV Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$12.83B | 13.87 | 35.31% | 2.69% | 0.65% | 15.80% | |
71 Outperform | C$26.97B | 16.49 | 40.28% | 3.94% | 7.44% | 297.46% | |
71 Outperform | C$12.83B | 13.87 | 35.31% | 2.70% | 0.65% | 15.80% | |
64 Neutral | C$29.67B | 4.71 | 31.99% | 7.42% | 0.24% | 3689.26% | |
62 Neutral | C$2.63B | 9.50 | 9.93% | 5.69% | -4.35% | -3.51% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | C$598.05M | 9.19 | 9.61% | 5.98% | -4.10% | -2.14% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TSE:CGO
Cogeco Inc. SV
62.02
1.72
2.85%
TSE:BCE
BCE
31.82
2.77
9.55%
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49.66
15.22
44.21%
TSE:QBR.A
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56.50
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TSE:CCA
Cogeco Communications
62.20
-1.66
-2.60%
TSE:QBR.B
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57.03
20.38
55.62%
Cogeco Inc. SV Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cogeco Q2 2026: Canadian Strength, U.S. Turnaround and Higher Free Cash Flow
Neutral
Apr 9, 2026
Cogeco reported second-quarter 2026 results marked by solid growth in its Canadian telecommunications business and ongoing pressure in its U.S. operations and media arm, leading to a 5.3% drop in consolidated revenue to $713 million and a 5.6% dec...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cogeco Posts Soft Q1 Revenue but Signals U.S. Turnaround and Network Push
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
Cogeco Inc. reported first-quarter 2026 results broadly in line with expectations, showing a 3.8% year-on-year revenue decline to $735.6 million and a 2.5% drop in adjusted EBITDA, largely due to weaker performance in its U.S. telecommunications b...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.