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Cogeco Inc. SV (TSE:CGO)
TSX:CGO
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Cogeco Inc. SV (CGO) AI Stock Analysis

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Cogeco Inc. SV

(TSX:CGO)

Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$67.00
▲(9.35%Upside)
Cogeco Inc. scores 69, driven primarily by financial performance and valuation. The company's strong operational efficiency and attractive valuation are offset by high leverage, declining profitability, and challenges in the U.S. market. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, though the stock appears undervalued with a compelling dividend yield. The mixed earnings call highlights both strengths and market challenges, particularly in the U.S.

Cogeco Inc. SV (CGO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Cogeco Inc. SV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCogeco Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates in the communications and media sectors in Canada and the United States. The company operates in two segments, Communications and Other. The Communications segment provides a range of Internet, video, and telephony services through its two-way broadband fiber networks primarily to residential customers, as well as to small and medium sized businesses under the Cogeco Connexion name in Quebec and Ontario; and Atlantic Broadband brand in the United States. The Other segment owns and operates 23 radio stations with complementary radio formats and coverage serving a range of audiences primarily across the province of Québec; and Cogeco News, a news agency. It serves primary service units, Internet, video, and telephony service customers. The company was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCogeco Inc. generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income is from its telecommunications services offered by Cogeco Connexion. This includes subscription fees from cable television, internet, and telephony services provided to residential and business customers. Additional revenue comes from equipment rentals and installation services. Cogeco Media contributes to the company's earnings through advertising sales across its numerous radio stations. Significant partnerships with content providers, technology companies, and local advertisers also play an essential role in driving revenue. Strategic investments in infrastructure and technology further enhance service offerings, supporting customer retention and acquisition, which are critical factors in sustaining and growing the company's earnings.

Cogeco Inc. SV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 15, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.80%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook for Cogeco. While there were strong performances and growth in the Canadian market, including Internet subscriber growth and a new wireless service launch, significant challenges remain in the U.S. market with declining revenue and increased competition. The company's transformation program is yielding positive cost synergies, but market pressures, particularly in the U.S., affect overall performance.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Canadian Internet Subscriber Growth
Cogeco reported strong Canadian Internet customer growth, adding 9,400 new Internet subscribers during the quarter. This growth is expected to continue with wireless and new Ontario network expansion projects.
Significant Free Cash Flow Improvement
Cogeco reported a 61.5% increase in free cash flow in constant currency due to lower CapEx and restructuring costs, with expectations to generate approximately $600 million in free cash flow by fiscal 2027.
OpEx and CapEx Synergies Ahead of Plan
The transformation program is resulting in operating and capital expenditure synergies being well ahead of plan, leading to a net CapEx reduction versus prior estimates.
Initial Launch of Canadian Wireless Service
Cogeco is set to launch a new Canadian wireless service, initially targeting low to mid data users and being exclusive to customers also buying wireline services.
Negative Updates
Decline in U.S. Revenue
Breezeline's revenue declined by 6.6% in constant currency due to a cumulative decline in the subscriber base over the past year, with a 10,400 Internet subscriber loss during the quarter.
Canadian Revenue Decline
Cogeco Connection's revenue declined by 1.8% in the third quarter, driven by lower revenue per customer due to fewer video and wireline phone subscribers.
Challenges in the U.S. Market
Cogeco faced an uptick in competition in three U.S. states and internal execution gaps, leading to lower subscriber metrics. Revenue outlook for the year was lowered due to U.S. pressures.
Radio Advertising Market Challenges
Cogeco Media faced challenges in the radio advertising market, though revenue increased due to growth in digital advertising solutions.
Company Guidance
During the Cogeco Inc. and Cogeco Communications Inc. Q3 2025 earnings call, several key metrics and guidance updates were provided. The company reported a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.1x at the end of the third quarter, showing a decrease from 3.4x in Q2 due to lower net debt and favorable exchange rates. They experienced strong free cash flow performance and expect to generate approximately $600 million in free cash flow by fiscal 2027. In Canada, Cogeco added 9,400 new Internet subscribers during the quarter, although revenue declined by 1.8% due to fewer video and wireline phone subscribers. In the U.S., Breezeline's revenue declined by 6.6% in constant currency, with a loss of 10,400 Internet subscribers. The company revised its fiscal 2025 guidance, expecting a low single-digit decline in revenue due to U.S. competitive pressures but maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance. Net capital expenditures are now anticipated to be between $600 million and $650 million, reduced from previous estimates. The Canadian wireless launch is set to expand into 12 markets before a full commercial release in the fall, initially targeting low to mid data users with exclusive offers for wireline customers.

Cogeco Inc. SV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cogeco Inc. SV exhibits strong operational efficiency with healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins but faces challenges with low net income margins and slowing revenue growth. The balance sheet is heavily leveraged, presenting potential risks despite stable asset management. Cash flow generation is robust, yet recent declines in free cash flow warrant attention. Overall, the company reflects a mix of strengths in operational metrics but faces risks due to high leverage and declining profitability.
Income Statement
70
Positive
The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin stands at 64.35%, indicating robust profitability. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 2.81%, reflecting challenges in translating revenue into net income. The revenue growth rate has been sluggish, with a slight decline in recent periods. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, suggesting operational efficiency, but the decreasing net income signals potential concerns.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 6.04 indicates high leverage, which could pose financial risks. The return on equity (ROE) is modest at 9.96%, showing decent but not outstanding returns for shareholders. The equity ratio of 8.44% is low, suggesting a reliance on debt financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a stable but highly leveraged financial position.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 13.00 is strong, underscoring effective cash generation relative to earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been negative recently, which may impact future financial flexibility. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 3.16 reveals some room for improvement in converting earnings to free cash flow.
BreakdownSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.07B3.08B3.00B2.60B2.48B
Gross Profit904.15M928.87M897.14M1.23B1.17B
EBITDA1.37B1.32B1.37B1.22B1.18B
Net Income96.75M70.63M457.75M439.01M401.83M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.77B9.87B9.47B7.54B7.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments77.75M334.59M251.15M368.43M406.11M
Total Debt4.98B5.11B4.75B3.33B3.23B
Total Liabilities6.39B6.43B6.20B4.64B4.32B
Stockholders Equity810.44M925.86M919.84M816.66M761.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow521.15M101.98M274.75M436.05M454.39M
Operating Cash Flow1.19B968.21M1.26B1.03B941.63M
Investing Cash Flow-848.34M-957.88M-2.41B-986.24M-560.50M
Financing Cash Flow-620.09M-32.84M970.90M-73.41M-530.95M

Cogeco Inc. SV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price61.27
Price Trends
50DMA
65.48
Negative
100DMA
62.75
Positive
200DMA
59.83
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.03
Positive
RSI
37.31
Neutral
STOCH
14.37
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CGO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 61.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.51, below the 50-day MA of 65.48, and above the 200-day MA of 59.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.37 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:CGO.

Cogeco Inc. SV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSCGO
69
Neutral
C$647.80M7.2810.54%6.02%-0.87%9.49%
55
Neutral
AU$3.56B16.65-1.37%3.12%4.07%-17.03%
BCBCE
$22.22B87.622.83%5.36%
RCRCI
$18.20B14.1116.65%4.30%
80
Outperform
C$9.30B12.4537.46%3.41%-1.11%8.17%
$2.19B9.3310.54%5.10%
$6.79B12.4237.69%3.46%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CGO
Cogeco Inc. SV
62.91
13.11
26.33%
BCE
BCE
24.09
-6.31
-20.76%
RCI
Rogers Communication
33.11
-2.97
-8.23%
TSE:QBR.A
Quebecor Inc Cl A MV
42.45
12.63
42.35%
CGEAF
Cogeco Communications
47.26
4.12
9.55%
QBCRF
Quebecor
28.95
8.63
42.47%

Cogeco Inc. SV Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Cogeco Inc. Reports Q3 2025 Results and Launches Canadian Wireless Service
Neutral
Jul 16, 2025

Cogeco Inc. reported its Q3 2025 financial results, highlighting strong growth in Canadian Internet subscribers and the launch of its wireless service in Canada. Despite a decrease in overall revenue, the company achieved significant free cash flow and aims to expand its wireless service to 12 Canadian markets, enhancing its North American customer base. The company is also addressing challenges in the U.S. market and experiencing growth in digital advertising within its media segment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CGO) stock is a Hold with a C$67.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cogeco Inc. SV stock, see the TSE:CGO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 17, 2025