Athabasca Oil (ATH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.68B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.61M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 3.04%
• EPS Growth: 115.77%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 479,700,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,265,416
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,608,945
• PEG Ratio: -0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.97
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.38
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.08
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.91
• 1Y Price Target: $8.79
• Price Target Upside: -9.90% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.44
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.07B

• Rating: 80 Outperform
• Price Target: C$11.00 ▲(12.82% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/06/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, strong cash generation, and low leverage). Technicals also support the rating with a clear uptrend and positive momentum indicators. Valuation is supportive with a reasonable P/E, though the absence of dividend yield data and the company’s historical cyclicality temper the overall score.

Positive Factors

Low leverage / strong balance sheet

Very low trailing-twelve-month leverage gives Athabasca durable financial flexibility. A modest debt load relative to equity supports capital spending, weathering commodity downturns and opportunistic investments without forcing asset sales, sustaining operations over the medium term.

Robust operating and free cash flow

Consistent positive operating and rising free cash flow strengthens the firm’s ability to fund sustaining capex, reduce leverage, and allocate cash to value-enhancing uses. Strong cash generation underpins resilience across commodity cycles and funds long-term project optimization.

High profitability margins

Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins indicate efficient thermal in-situ operations and attractive per-barrel economics. Robust margins provide cushion versus price swings, enabling reinvestment and return generation even if volumes or prices moderate over the next several months.

Negative Factors

TTM revenue softness

Trailing revenue decline signals pressure on scale or realizations. Persistent or worsening top-line softness would reduce operating leverage, constrain reinvestment capacity, and limit margin expansion opportunities, making financial outcomes more sensitive to commodity movements.

Earnings and cash-flow cyclicality

A history of volatile earnings and occasional losses highlights structural commodity exposure. Cyclicality complicates capital allocation, increases the need for conservative liquidity, and reduces predictability of cash available for growth or distributions over multi-month horizons.

Concentrated, operationally sensitive asset base

Heavy reliance on thermal in-situ production concentrates operational risk: steam efficiency, fuel costs, and facility reliability directly affect output and costs. Coupled with heavy-oil differentials, this structural sensitivity can limit margin stability and raise capex and operating variability risks.

Athabasca Oil Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada. The company operates through Thermal Oil and Light Oil segments. Its principal properties are in the Greater Placid and Greater Kaybob areas near the Town of Fox Creek in northwestern Alberta; and the Leismer and Hangingstone projects located in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta. The company produces light and medium crude oil, tight oil, conventional natural gas, shale gas, and natural gas liquids; and bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations. As of December 31, 2021, it held approximately 889,000 net acres of mineral resource leases, licenses, and permits, which include approximately 347,000 net acres of oil sands leases and permits, and approximately 337,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in the Athabasca region of northwestern Alberta; approximately 204,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in northwestern Alberta; and had an interest in approximately 254 gross wells of bitumen, crude oil, and natural gas. The company was formerly known as Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. and changed its name to Athabasca Oil Corporation in May 2012. Athabasca Oil Corporation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Athabasca Oil primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil (bitumen/heavy oil) from its oil sands operations. Revenue is largely a function of (1) production volumes and (2) realized pricing for its crude, which is influenced by benchmark oil prices, heavy-oil differentials, and foreign-exchange effects when pricing is linked to U.S. dollar benchmarks. The company’s cash generation depends on operating costs (including fuel and steam generation), non-energy operating expenses, and sustaining capital required to maintain production. As a thermal in-situ producer, its economics are also affected by steam-to-oil performance and reliability of its facilities. Additional earnings factors can include risk-management activities (e.g., commodity price hedging) and the timing/structure of marketing arrangements for crude sales. Specific material partnerships or unique revenue-sharing structures: null.

Athabasca Oil Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are strong overall: high profitability margins, robust operating and free cash flow, and very low leverage. Offsetting factors are slight TTM revenue softness and pronounced historical cyclicality (including prior loss periods), which increases earnings and cash-flow stability risk.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) profitability is strong with high gross, EBIT and EBITDA margins, and net margin holding around the low-30% range. However, revenue has softened slightly in TTM (down ~4%), and results have been volatile across the cycle (including a loss in 2023 and very weak 2020), which is typical for the industry but still raises earnings stability risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is very low in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with debt modest relative to equity and a large equity base supporting total assets. Returns on equity are solid in recent periods, though the track record shows cyclical swings (negative return in 2023 and very weak 2020), so balance-sheet strength is high but not immune to commodity-driven drawdowns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is robust: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow and free cash flow are both strong, with free cash flow up meaningfully versus the prior year. That said, free cash flow converts to a moderate share of net income, and cash flows have shown cyclicality historically (notably negative in 2020), so sustainability depends on the commodity environment.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.31B	1.44B	1.20B	1.50B	1.02B
Gross Profit	423.06M	751.90M	414.79M	731.03M	564.58M
EBITDA	508.65M	781.05M	110.46M	370.67M	649.06M
Net Income	245.11M	467.74M	-51.22M	572.27M	457.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.55B	2.47B	2.05B	2.23B	1.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	316.37M	344.84M	343.31M	197.53M	223.06M
Total Debt	201.86M	199.73M	185.54M	206.13M	384.30M
Total Liabilities	657.43M	610.88M	465.18M	519.86M	716.17M
Stockholders Equity	1.77B	1.75B	1.58B	1.71B	1.03B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	520.46M	289.50M	165.69M	168.17M	102.11M
Operating Cash Flow	520.46M	557.54M	305.53M	315.62M	194.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-305.77M	-251.34M	20.56M	-146.00M	22.70M
Financing Cash Flow	-230.74M	-328.68M	-170.73M	-204.95M	-159.20M

Athabasca Oil Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.75
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ATH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.97, above the 50-day MA of 8.32, and above the 200-day MA of 6.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.04 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.00 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ATH.

Athabasca Oil Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ATH	80 Outperform	$4.68B	14.32	27.19%	―	3.04%	115.77%
POU	73 Outperform	$4.34B	2.70	48.07%	2.84%	-32.36%	282.99%
TVE	68 Neutral	C$5.45B	-110.02	-1.84%	1.91%	-1.36%	-149.45%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BTE	65 Neutral	C$4.18B	―	-16.22%	2.07%	-8.89%	―
IPCO	60 Neutral	C$4.11B	70.08	3.59%	―	-9.12%	-70.87%

Athabasca Oil Corporate Events

Athabasca Oil boosts 2025 output, reserves and ramps up share buybacks

Athabasca Oil reported strong 2025 results, with average production rising 7% to 39,375 boe/d, 98% liquids, and hitting the top end of guidance. Adjusted funds flow reached $504 million, supported by $323 million in capital spending largely at the Leismer thermal project and Duvernay development.

The company generated $217 million of free cash flow from its thermal oil business and directed 100% of free cash flow to shareholders, repurchasing 39 million shares for $230 million and cutting its fully diluted share count by 24% since 2023. Athabasca ended the year with 1.3 billion boe of 2P reserves and about 1 billion barrels of contingent resources, with its thermal division alone valued at $5.2 billion NPV10 and supporting potential growth beyond 60,000 bbl/d by 2030.

Duvernay Energy Corporation, in which Athabasca holds a majority interest, increased its 2P reserves by 9% to 79 mmboe, with an NPV10 of $592 million. The combined reserve base and funded growth profile underscore Athabasca’s effort to deepen its long-life asset value while maintaining self-funded growth and aggressive share buybacks, reinforcing its position among Canadian liquids-focused producers.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:ATH) stock is a Hold with a C$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Athabasca Oil stock, see the TSE:ATH Stock Forecast page.