Tenaris SA (TS) AI Stock Analysis

Compare

516 Followers

Top Page

Tenaris SA

(NYSE:TS)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

$41.00

▲(14.27% Upside)

Tenaris SA's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supported by a robust balance sheet and profitability. However, technical indicators suggest neutral to bearish momentum, and mixed earnings call sentiment highlights challenges such as declining sales and tariff impacts. The overall score reflects a balanced view of strengths and risks.

Positive Factors

Business Resilience

The business is fundamentally stronger than it was in the past, with increasing backward and forward integration providing insulation from what historically has been a highly competitive OCTG market.

Financial Targets

Higher than modeled cash on the balance sheet drives the DCF based price target from $41 to $43.

Share Repurchase

Cash generation should remain strong, and a similar share repurchase plan is expected to be announced.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

Tenaris underperformed after giving a 2H outlook that could imply ~6% downside to consensus EBITDA.

Market Conditions

A weaker than expected July Pipe Logix print and concern that in-transit imports shipped prior to the June tariff increase could cause near-term price weakness.

Revenue and Margins

Tenaris sees 3Q revenue down high single digits with some margin contraction related to tariffs and mix.

Tenaris SA (TS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$19.39B

Dividend Yield4.66%

Average Volume (3M)1.37M

Price to Earnings (P/E)9.7

Beta (1Y)0.78

Revenue Growth-12.06%

EPS Growth-21.43%

CountryUS

Employees25,874

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength49

IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.99

Shares Outstanding535,997,440

10 Day Avg. Volume1,076,528

30 Day Avg. Volume1,372,469

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.49

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.41

Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.72

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$45.67

Price Target Upside27.29% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

Tenaris SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTenaris SA is a leading global manufacturer and supplier of steel pipes and related services for the energy industry, primarily focusing on the oil and gas sector. The company operates through several business segments, including the production of seamless and welded steel pipes, which are essential for drilling, completion, and transportation of oil and gas. Tenaris also provides technical and logistical services to enhance the performance of its products, catering to both upstream and downstream applications worldwide.

How the Company Makes MoneyTenaris generates revenue primarily through the sale of its steel pipe products to customers in the oil and gas industry. The company's revenue model is built on selling seamless and welded pipes, along with value-added services such as technical support and product customization. Key revenue streams include sales to exploration and production companies and to service companies that support these operations. Additionally, Tenaris benefits from long-term contracts with major oil companies, which provide stability and predictability in revenue. The company also engages in partnerships and alliances with other industry players to enhance its market reach and operational efficiency, contributing positively to its earnings.

Tenaris SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: -3.44%|

Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted sequential growth in sales and EBITDA, a strong cash position, and successful global project deliveries. However, these positives were offset by year-on-year sales decline, increased tariffs impacting market conditions, challenges in Argentina, and uncertainty in future sales and pricing due to tariffs. The sentiment is mixed with both positive achievements and significant challenges.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Sequential Increase in Sales and EBITDA

Second quarter sales reached $3.1 billion, up 6% sequentially, and EBITDA increased by 5% sequentially to $733 million, with an EBITDA margin close to 24%.

Strong Free Cash Flow

The company generated $538 million in free cash flow for the quarter after a dividend payment of $600 million and share buybacks of $237 million.

Robust Financial Position

Net cash position amounted to $3.7 billion at the end of the quarter, highlighting a strong financial position.

Strategic Project Deliveries

Successful delivery of pipes and coatings to complex line pipe projects globally, including high-profile projects with Equinor, ConocoPhillips, Shell, Azule, and Chevron.

Positive Developments in Pemex

Pemex issued a $12 billion financing facility, potentially increasing operations and addressing supplier debt.

Negative Updates

Year-on-Year Sales Decline

Sales decreased by 7% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased drilling activity in several regions.

Impact of Increased Tariffs

Increase in U.S. Section 232 tariffs from 25% to 50% on steel imports has introduced market uncertainty and is expected to impact pricing and competitive environment.

Challenges in Argentina

Slow growth in the Vaca Muerta shale play due to financing challenges and reduced rig count in southern Argentina.

Reduced Offshore Pipeline Deliveries

Expected lower deliveries to offshore line pipe projects in the second half of 2025, with impacts on sales.

Uncertain Fourth Quarter Outlook

Uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on pricing and sales in the fourth quarter, with limited visibility on future trends.

Company Guidance

During the Tenaris S.A. Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance that highlighted a complex outlook for the remainder of the year. Sales for the second quarter were reported at $3.1 billion, reflecting a 7% year-on-year decrease but a 6% sequential increase, primarily due to higher North American OCTG prices and stable volumes. The average selling prices in the Tubes segment fell 2% compared to the same quarter last year but rose 6% sequentially. EBITDA increased by 5% sequentially to $733 million, maintaining a margin close to 24%. Free cash flow stood at $538 million after accounting for an operating cash flow of $673 million and capital expenditure of $135 million. However, the company anticipates a high single-digit decline in sales for the third quarter, influenced by reduced invoicing in fracking operations and lower line pipe shipments. Other factors, such as increased U.S. Section 232 tariffs on steel imports, are expected to influence pricing and market dynamics, possibly affecting margin trends. The net cash position at the quarter's end was $3.7 billion, factoring in a $600 million dividend payment and $237 million in share buybacks. Looking ahead, Tenaris expects lower sales in the third quarter but remains cautious about the fourth quarter, anticipating some price adjustments in response to market conditions.

Tenaris SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tenaris SA exhibits a solid financial profile with strong profitability and a robust balance sheet. Despite declining revenue growth trends, the company maintains efficient operations and low financial leverage, providing a stable foundation for future growth.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Tenaris SA has demonstrated strong income statement performance with robust gross and net profit margins. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 33.8%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin stands at 17%, showcasing profitability. However, there is a noticeable decline in revenue growth, from a high in 2023 to a decrease in 2025, which could indicate market saturation or competitive pressures.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03, underscoring low leverage and financial stability. The equity ratio is strong at 81.3%, pointing to a highly capitalized structure. Return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 12.1%, driven by solid net income, though slightly lower compared to previous years, suggesting potential areas for efficiency improvements.

Cash Flow

Very Positive

Tenaris SA has been generating strong cash flows with a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.95, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.29, highlighting good quality earnings. However, the free cash flow growth rate has seen a decline, which could impact future investment capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	11.81B	12.52B	14.87B	11.76B	6.52B	5.15B
Gross Profit	3.99B	4.39B	6.47B	4.67B	1.91B	1.06B
EBITDA	3.08B	3.16B	5.19B	3.82B	1.86B	86.55M
Net Income	2.01B	2.04B	3.92B	2.55B	1.10B	-642.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.41B	20.45B	21.08B	17.55B	14.45B	13.72B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.05B	3.05B	3.61B	1.53B	715.98M	1.46B
Total Debt	472.37M	582.32M	203.96M	840.94M	448.22M	876.35M
Total Liabilities	3.61B	3.64B	4.05B	3.52B	2.34B	2.27B
Stockholders Equity	16.58B	16.59B	16.84B	13.91B	11.96B	11.26B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.90B	2.16B	3.78B	769.87M	-125.52M	1.33B
Operating Cash Flow	2.59B	2.87B	4.40B	1.17B	119.08M	1.52B
Investing Cash Flow	-494.05M	-1.40B	-2.69B	-163.56M	267.90M	-2.09B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.37B	-2.40B	-1.13B	-178.34M	-647.96M	-375.32M

Tenaris SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price35.88

Price Trends

50DMA

36.73

Negative

100DMA

34.91

Positive

200DMA

35.79

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.29

Negative

RSI

47.35

Neutral

STOCH

58.37

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.00, below the 50-day MA of 36.73, and above the 200-day MA of 35.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TS.

Tenaris SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (54)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FTI	82 Outperform	$14.32B	16.49	29.27%	0.58%	12.15%	91.88%
TS	76 Outperform	$19.39B	9.71	12.06%	4.66%	-12.06%	-21.43%
BKR	74 Outperform	$42.34B	14.05	18.32%	2.10%	2.13%	54.69%
NOV	71 Outperform	$4.60B	10.18	7.31%	4.18%	-1.21%	-54.44%
MRC	64 Neutral	$1.19B	41.18	5.66%	―	-9.81%	-124.43%
HLX	64 Neutral	$840.76M	17.63	3.27%	―	-8.19%	―
Sector *	54 Neutral	C$4.15B	0.97	16.40%	5.23%	10.45%	-57.37%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

Tenaris SA

35.88

8.76

32.30%

BKR

Baker Hughes Company

43.46

9.01

26.15%

FTI

TechnipFMC

35.31

8.81

33.25%

HLX

Helix Energy

6.00

-5.05

-45.70%

MRC

MRC Global

14.18

1.14

8.74%

NOV

12.41

-4.92

-28.39%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 22, 2025