Trimble (TRMB)
NASDAQ:TRMB
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Trimble
(NASDAQ:TRMB)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$71.00
▲(2.47% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/11/26
The score is anchored by solid financial stability (improving leverage) and a positive earnings-call outlook driven by ARR growth, margin expansion targets, and continued buybacks. Offsetting these strengths are pressured recent fundamentals (sharp 2025 revenue and free-cash-flow decline), weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and a high P/E valuation with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
High recurring revenue mix
A large and growing recurring software/services base (63% recurring, 78% software/services) creates predictable revenue, higher retention and stronger lifetime customer value. This structural shift supports steadier cash flows, easier forecasting, and better scalability for cross-sell and ARR expansion over years.
Negative Factors
Margin compression
A sharp decline in net margin signals rising operating costs, one-time items, or pricing pressure that impair long-term profitability. If persistent, lower net margins reduce retained earnings for reinvestment and weaken ability to fund R&D or absorb cyclical revenue shortfalls over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High recurring revenue mix
A large and growing recurring software/services base (63% recurring, 78% software/services) creates predictable revenue, higher retention and stronger lifetime customer value. This structural shift supports steadier cash flows, easier forecasting, and better scalability for cross-sell and ARR expansion over years.
Read all positive factors
Trimble (TRMB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.62B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)43.9
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth-2.61%
EPS Growth-71.05%
CountryUS
Employees12,100
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryHardware, Equipment & Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.00
Shares Outstanding232,088,730
10 Day Avg. Volume1,614,851
30 Day Avg. Volume1,710,966
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.62
Price to Book (P/B)3.19
Price to Sales (P/S)5.18
P/FCF Ratio139.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.74
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$91.57Price Target Upside32.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.87B
Trimble Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Trimble Inc. provides technology solutions that enable professionals and field mobile workers to enhance or transform their work processes worldwide. The company's Buildings and Infrastructure segment offers field and office software for route sel...
How the Company Makes Money
Trimble generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by selling its hardware products, software licenses, and subscription-based services. Key revenue streams include the sale of advanced positioning systems, surveying instruments, and s...
Trimble Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down sales by region (e.g., North America, EMEA, APAC), revealing where Trimble’s demand is strongest and where it faces economic or currency risk. High concentration in one region increases vulnerability to local slowdowns, while broad international growth signals expansion opportunities and diversification of revenue sources.
Breaks down sales by region (e.g., North America, EMEA, APAC), revealing where Trimble’s demand is strongest and where it faces economic or currency risk. High concentration in one region increases vulnerability to local slowdowns, while broad international growth signals expansion opportunities and diversification of revenue sources.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTrimble Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive picture: top- and bottom-line beats, record ARR growth (14% to $2.39B), margin expansion, strong segment-level execution (particularly AECO and Field Systems ARR acceleration), meaningful AI traction and repeatable cross-sell/upsell dynamics. Offsetting factors include industry-specific headwinds in freight, short-term revenue pressure from Field Systems’ model conversions, divestiture-related taxes and stranded costs, and a conservative 2026 guide that factors in macro/lapping effects. On balance, the positive operational momentum, strong recurring revenue profile, margin progress and capital return actions outweigh the near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Beat
Q4 revenue of $970M, up 9% year-over-year (organic); full-year revenue $3.57B, up 10%.
Negative Updates
Freight Market Headwinds
Transportation demand remains muted; management cited a challenged freight market and muted U.S. federal business that constrains upside in that segment.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Beat
Q4 revenue of $970M, up 9% year-over-year (organic); full-year revenue $3.57B, up 10%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Trimble guided to 2026 full‑year midpoints of $3.86 billion in revenue (≈7.5% growth), $3.52 GAAP EPS, ARR growth of 13%, and EBITDA margin expanding roughly 50 basis points to about 29.8%; management expects free cash flow of approximately 1x net income (and to exceed non‑GAAP net income over the long term) and reiterated longer‑term 2027 targets of ~$3.0 billion ARR, ~$4.0 billion revenue and ~30% EBITDA margin. For Q1 2026 the midpoints were $905 million revenue (≈8% growth), $0.71 EPS, 13% ARR growth and 26.6% EBITDA margin (≈+70 bps y/y). Capital allocation guidance included at least one‑third of free cash flow targeted to share repurchases (Trimble repurchased ~$148 million in Q4 and has ~$925 million remaining authorization), and the company exited the year with a 1.1x leverage ratio (well below its 2.5x target), leaving flexibility for buybacks and tuck‑in M&A.Trimble Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.59B | 3.68B | 3.80B | 3.68B | 3.66B |
| Gross Profit | 2.45B | 2.40B | 2.33B | 2.11B | 2.03B |
| EBITDA | 763.70M | 2.33B | 768.60M | 747.40M | 819.90M |
| Net Income | 424.00M | 1.50B | 311.30M | 449.70M | 492.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.31B | 9.49B | 9.54B | 7.27B | 7.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 253.40M | 738.80M | 229.80M | 271.00M | 325.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.39B | 1.51B | 3.19B | 1.63B | 1.41B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.48B | 3.74B | 5.04B | 3.22B | 3.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.84B | 5.75B | 4.50B | 4.05B | 3.94B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 133.20M | 497.80M | 555.10M | 348.00M | 704.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 386.20M | 531.40M | 597.10M | 391.20M | 750.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -37.00M | 1.86B | -2.07B | -226.30M | -203.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -868.40M | -1.86B | 1.43B | -199.00M | -447.70M |
Trimble Technical Analysis
Neutral
69.29
Price Trends
66.65
Positive
72.15
Negative
76.39
Negative
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
60.36
Neutral
85.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRMB, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 69.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.68, above the 50-day MA of 66.65, and below the 200-day MA of 76.39, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TRMB.
Trimble Risk Analysis
Trimble disclosed 30 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trimble reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trimble Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $29.92B | 30.13 | 8.85% | ― | 7.74% | 12.76% | |
75 Outperform | $33.66B | 23.76 | 16.83% | ― | 4.89% | -9.65% | |
73 Outperform | $60.01B | 33.10 | 16.50% | ― | 13.13% | 58.47% | |
69 Neutral | $35.61B | 31.64 | 58.99% | 0.14% | 19.00% | 78.70% | |
68 Neutral | $18.41B | 31.82 | 6.90% | 0.43% | -23.36% | -26.77% | |
63 Neutral | $15.62B | 43.86 | 7.46% | ― | -2.61% | -71.05% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
TRMB
Trimble
68.42
3.83
5.93%
FLEX
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JBL
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TDY
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640.33
161.50
33.73%
KEYS
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352.41
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137.28%
FTV
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59.03
8.37
16.53%
Trimble Corporate Events
Stock BuybackPrivate Placements and Financing
Trimble Announces New Credit Agreement and Stock Buyback
Positive
Dec 5, 2025
On December 4, 2025, Trimble Inc. entered into a new Credit Agreement with Bank of America, replacing its prior agreement from March 2022, with an unsecured revolving loan facility of $1.25 billion, although no loans were outstanding at the time. ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.