Trimble (TRMB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $15.92B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.42
• Revenue Growth: -0.86%
• EPS Growth: -75.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 12,100
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Hardware, Equipment & Parts
• EPS (TTM): 1.00
• Shares Outstanding: 237,920,960
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,432,978
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,281,198
• PEG Ratio: -0.62
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.19
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 139.64
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.74
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.94
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.55
• 1Y Price Target: $93.88
• Price Target Upside: 43.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $71.00 ▲(8.53% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/11/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/11/26

The score is anchored by solid financial stability (improving leverage) and a positive earnings-call outlook driven by ARR growth, margin expansion targets, and continued buybacks. Offsetting these strengths are pressured recent fundamentals (sharp 2025 revenue and free-cash-flow decline), weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and a high P/E valuation with no dividend support.

Positive Factors

High recurring revenue mix

A large and growing recurring software/services base (63% recurring, 78% software/services) creates predictable revenue, higher retention and stronger lifetime customer value. This structural shift supports steadier cash flows, easier forecasting, and better scalability for cross-sell and ARR expansion over years.

Strong ARR and revenue growth

Double-digit ARR and top-line growth indicate successful product adoption and recurring monetization. Sustained ARR expansion reduces revenue cyclicality and underpins long-term subscription economics, enabling predictable renewal streams and incremental margin leverage as scale increases.

Financial flexibility & cash generation

A sizable credit facility plus a $1B buyback authorization, combined with low leverage (debt/equity ~0.24) and positive free cash flow growth, signal ample liquidity and capital allocation optionality. This supports investment in growth, M&A, and shareholder returns without stressing the balance sheet.

Negative Factors

Margin compression

A sharp decline in net margin signals rising operating costs, one-time items, or pricing pressure that impair long-term profitability. If persistent, lower net margins reduce retained earnings for reinvestment and weaken ability to fund R&D or absorb cyclical revenue shortfalls over the medium term.

Declining return on equity

A steep ROE decline reflects reduced capital efficiency and weaker returns to shareholders. Persistently low ROE can constrain shareholder value creation, limit the effectiveness of buybacks, and signal that incremental capital is generating materially less profit than historically, affecting long-term investor returns.

End-market cyclicality exposure

Material exposure to cyclical government spending and a weak freight market creates durable revenue volatility risks in segments like Transportation. Such structural end-market sensitivity can slow ARR growth and pressure margins during downturns, complicating long-range planning and capital allocation.

Trimble Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Trimble Inc. provides technology solutions that enable professionals and field mobile workers to enhance or transform their work processes worldwide. The company's Buildings and Infrastructure segment offers field and office software for route selection and design; systems to guide and control construction equipment; software for 3D design and data sharing; systems to monitor, track, and manage assets, equipment, and workers; software to share and communicate data; program management solutions for construction owners; 3D conceptual design and modeling software; building information modeling software; enterprise resource planning, project management, and project collaboration solutions; integrated site layout and measurement systems; cost estimating, scheduling, and project controls solutions; and applications for sub-contractors and trades. Its Geospatial segment provides surveying and geospatial products, and geographic information systems. The company's Resources and Utilities segment offers precision agriculture products and services, such as guidance and positioning systems, including autonomous steering systems, automated and variable-rate application and technology systems, and information management solutions; manual and automated navigation guidance for tractors and other farm equipment; solutions to automate application of pesticide and seeding; water solutions; and agricultural software. Its Transportation segment offers solutions for long haul trucking and freight shipper markets; mobility solutions comprising route management, safety and compliance, end-to-end vehicle management, video intelligence, and supply chain communications; and fleet and transportation management systems, analytics, routing, mapping, reporting, and predictive modeling solutions. The company was formerly known as Trimble Navigation Limited and changed its name to Trimble Inc. in October 2016. Trimble Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Trimble generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily by selling its hardware products, software licenses, and subscription-based services. Key revenue streams include the sale of advanced positioning systems, surveying instruments, and software solutions tailored for industries such as construction and agriculture. The company also offers maintenance and support services for its products, contributing to recurring revenue. Additionally, Trimble has established significant partnerships with various industry leaders, enhancing its market reach and offering integrated solutions that drive customer engagement and retention. Factors such as ongoing advancements in technology and growing demand for automation in various sectors also play a crucial role in bolstering its earnings.

Trimble Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength is a clear positive with meaningfully lower leverage (debt-to-equity down to ~0.24 in 2025), but operating fundamentals weakened: revenue fell sharply in 2025 (~-38% YoY) and free cash flow dropped to ~$133M (down ~58% YoY) with weaker cash conversion versus net income. Gross margin improved structurally, yet profitability and cash flow show elevated year-to-year volatility.

Income Statement

Revenue has been essentially flat to down over the last few years, with a sharp decline in 2025 (revenue down ~38% year over year). Profitability is mixed: gross margin improved steadily (from ~56% in 2020 to ~68% in 2025), but operating profitability weakened in 2025 (operating margin down to ~17% from unusually high levels in 2024). Net margin also normalized sharply in 2025 (~12%) after an outsized 2024 result, suggesting earnings volatility rather than consistent expansion.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks well-managed and improving: debt relative to equity declined meaningfully from ~0.71 (2023) to ~0.24 (2025), indicating stronger balance-sheet flexibility. Equity and assets remain sizable, supporting financial stability. The main weakness is that returns on shareholders’ capital are modest in 2025 (~7% return on equity) and have been inconsistent (very strong in 2024, much lower before/after), which reduces overall quality of balance-sheet productivity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened notably in 2025: operating cash flow fell to ~$386M and free cash flow dropped to ~$133M (down ~58% year over year). Free cash flow covered only about one-third of net income in 2025, a clear deterioration versus prior years when cash flow conversion was much stronger. While the business has demonstrated the ability to generate solid free cash flow historically, the latest year shows higher volatility and reduced financial flexibility from cash generation.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.59B	3.68B	3.80B	3.68B	3.66B
Gross Profit	2.45B	2.40B	2.33B	2.11B	2.03B
EBITDA	789.50M	2.33B	768.60M	747.40M	819.90M
Net Income	424.00M	1.50B	311.30M	449.70M	492.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.31B	9.49B	9.54B	7.27B	7.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	253.40M	738.80M	229.80M	271.00M	325.70M
Total Debt	1.39B	1.51B	3.19B	1.63B	1.41B
Total Liabilities	3.48B	3.74B	5.04B	3.22B	3.15B
Stockholders Equity	5.84B	5.75B	4.50B	4.05B	3.94B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	133.20M	497.80M	555.10M	348.00M	704.40M
Operating Cash Flow	386.20M	531.40M	597.10M	391.20M	750.50M
Investing Cash Flow	-37.00M	1.86B	-2.07B	-226.30M	-203.50M
Financing Cash Flow	-868.40M	-1.86B	1.43B	-199.00M	-447.70M

Trimble Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 65.42
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRMB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 65.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.07, below the 50-day MA of 74.07, and below the 200-day MA of 77.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRMB.

Trimble Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TDY	77 Outperform	$31.11B	35.25	8.92%	―	7.41%	-12.85%
KEYS	74 Outperform	$41.14B	49.04	15.82%	―	7.95%	39.54%
JBL	73 Outperform	$27.51B	40.53	47.87%	0.14%	13.18%	-38.37%
FLEX	72 Outperform	$24.20B	29.15	16.85%	―	0.77%	0.51%
FTV	67 Neutral	$18.53B	33.72	7.78%	0.43%	-8.96%	-30.29%
TRMB	63 Neutral	$15.92B	38.36	7.32%	―	-0.86%	-75.37%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Trimble Corporate Events

Trimble Announces New Credit Agreement and Stock Buyback

On December 4, 2025, Trimble Inc. entered into a new Credit Agreement with Bank of America, replacing its prior agreement from March 2022, with an unsecured revolving loan facility of $1.25 billion, although no loans were outstanding at the time. Additionally, on December 3, 2025, Trimble’s Board authorized a new stock repurchase program of up to $1 billion, replacing the previous authorization, allowing the company to repurchase shares through various means without a set expiration date.

The most recent analyst rating on (TRMB) stock is a Buy with a $92.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trimble stock, see the TRMB Stock Forecast page.