Tri Pointe (TPH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.91B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.16M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: -16.60%
• EPS Growth: -29.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,750
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.70
• Shares Outstanding: 84,479,740
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,586,871
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,158,813
• PEG Ratio: -0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.70
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.76
• 1Y Price Target: $46.50
• Price Target Upside: 0.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.02B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $51.00 ▲(10.10% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by stable but weakening financial performance (notably the 2025 cash flow drop and margin compression), partially offset by a strong balance sheet. Technicals are bullish but overextended, valuation is moderate (P/E ~17) with no dividend yield provided, and the pending all-cash acquisition at a sizable premium provides a meaningful positive catalyst alongside solid (but mixed-demand) earnings-call messaging.

Positive Factors

Balance-sheet strength

Tri Pointe's moderate leverage and sizable equity base provide durable financial resilience through housing cycles. Improved debt-to-equity reduces refinancing risk, preserves borrowing capacity for land acquisition and community buildouts, and supports strategic options over the next several quarters.

Liquidity & capital returns

High liquidity and a track record of share repurchases demonstrate strong cash management and financial optionality. Cash buffers support operations, land purchases and incentives in softer markets while buybacks show disciplined capital allocation that can sustainably enhance shareholder value over multiple quarters.

Strategic acquisition support

The all-cash acquisition by Sumitomo Forestry is a structural change that brings scale, committed financing and strategic backing. Retaining management and the brand reduces execution risk while the parent’s capital and U.S. growth plan can accelerate community expansion and long-term stability.

Negative Factors

Weakened cash generation

A sharp drop in operating cash flow highlights working-capital sensitivity and reduced internal funding for land and construction. Persistent cash-generation weakness limits reinvestment, heightens reliance on external capital or parent financing, and constrains durable margin recovery over coming quarters.

Revenue & margin compression

Declining revenue and lower margins indicate structural pricing and volume pressure in key markets. Sustained margin compression erodes returns on new community investments and weakens profitability resilience, reducing the company's ability to absorb higher incentives or input-cost volatility over several quarters.

Soft demand & falling backlog

Material backlog declines, slower absorption and elevated incentives (noted elsewhere) reflect softer buyer demand. Lower backlog visibility and slower order trends increase exposure to excess inventory and working-capital strain, challenging sustainable revenue and margin recovery in the medium term.

Tri Pointe Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. The company operates through a portfolio of six brands comprising Maracay in Arizona; Pardee Homes in California and Nevada; Quadrant Homes in Washington; Trendmaker Homes in Texas; TRI Pointe Homes in California, Colorado, and the Carolinas; and Winchester Homes in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. As of December 31, 2021, its operations consisted of 112 active selling communities and 41,675 owned or controlled lots. The company sells its homes through own sales representatives and independent real estate brokers. It also provides financial services, such as mortgage financing, title and escrow, and property and casualty insurance agency services. The company was formerly known as TRI Pointe Group, Inc. and changed its name to Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. in January 2021. Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Tri Pointe generates revenue primarily through the sale of newly constructed homes. The company makes money by acquiring land, developing residential communities, and constructing homes that are then sold to consumers. Key revenue streams include home sales, as well as revenue from ancillary services such as financing and home warranties. In addition, Tri Pointe often engages in joint ventures and partnerships with land developers and financial institutions, which can further enhance its revenue potential. The company's earnings are influenced by market demand for housing, interest rates, and economic conditions, as well as its ability to manage construction costs and deliver homes efficiently.

Tri Pointe Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are stable but have clearly cooled: revenue declined (~7.5% YoY) and margins compressed, while operating cash flow and free cash flow fell sharply in 2025. Offsetting this, leverage looks moderate and improving, suggesting balance-sheet resilience despite the cyclical slowdown.

Income Statement

Profitability remains positive, but the earnings profile has weakened meaningfully in the latest year. Annual revenue fell to ~$3.47B in 2025 (down ~7.5% versus 2024), and margins compressed (net margin ~6.9% in 2025 vs ~10.2% in 2024; operating profit margin also stepped down). While the company has a history of strong profitability (notably 2021–2024), the recent downshift suggests a tougher pricing/volume environment and more cyclical pressure on results.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks relatively healthy for a cyclical homebuilder. Leverage is moderate with debt-to-equity improving over time (~0.36 in 2025 vs ~0.68 in 2021), and equity is sizable (~$3.32B) relative to total assets (~$4.98B). Returns to shareholders are still positive (return on equity ~7.3% in 2025), though down sharply from prior years, which aligns with the profitability slowdown rather than balance-sheet stress.

Cash Flow

Cash generation became a key weak spot in 2025. Operating cash flow dropped to ~$161M from ~$696M in 2024, and free cash flow fell to ~$129M (down ~52.6% year over year). Cash flow covered a smaller portion of earnings in 2025 (operating cash flow to net income well below 1x), even though free cash flow still roughly tracked earnings (~0.80x of net income). The multi-year record is mixed, highlighting working-capital sensitivity typical of residential construction.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.47B	4.49B	3.72B	4.35B	3.98B
Gross Profit	762.07M	1.05B	844.55M	1.17B	1.01B
EBITDA	364.05M	647.89M	494.21M	801.22M	658.08M
Net Income	240.90M	458.03M	343.70M	576.06M	469.27M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.03B	4.94B	4.91B	4.72B	4.34B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	982.81M	970.04M	868.95M	889.66M	681.53M
Total Debt	1.28B	1.10B	1.46B	1.46B	1.67B
Total Liabilities	1.71B	1.61B	1.90B	1.88B	1.89B
Stockholders Equity	3.32B	3.34B	3.01B	2.83B	2.45B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	128.54M	672.76M	169.88M	400.65M	386.47M
Operating Cash Flow	161.46M	696.06M	195.26M	444.28M	415.96M
Investing Cash Flow	-45.82M	-63.45M	-26.42M	-58.12M	-72.13M
Financing Cash Flow	-102.87M	-531.52M	-189.55M	-178.02M	-283.60M

Tri Pointe Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 46.32
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.78, above the 50-day MA of 37.63, and above the 200-day MA of 34.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.80 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 83.22 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TPH.

Tri Pointe Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRBK	77 Outperform	$2.95B	8.76	17.70%	―	6.62%	-1.90%
MHO	71 Outperform	$3.49B	8.49	12.99%	―	4.77%	-9.30%
KBH	70 Outperform	$3.65B	10.16	10.80%	1.76%	-10.01%	-27.81%
TPH	69 Neutral	$3.91B	11.14	7.29%	―	-16.60%	-29.85%
CCS	63 Neutral	$1.78B	12.06	8.37%	1.99%	-6.28%	-31.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DFH	61 Neutral	$1.51B	7.33	14.44%	―	15.95%	-6.86%

Tri Pointe Corporate Events

Tri Pointe to Be Acquired by Sumitomo Forestry

On February 13, 2026, Tri Pointe Homes agreed to be acquired by Japan’s Sumitomo Forestry in an all-cash merger valuing the U.S. homebuilder at about $4.5 billion, or $47 per share, a roughly 29% premium to its prior close and 42% above its 90-day VWAP. The deal, unanimously approved by both boards and expected to close in the second quarter of 2026 pending regulatory and shareholder approvals, will take Tri Pointe private and see its stock delisted from the New York Stock Exchange.

Sumitomo Forestry, which has long invested in U.S. builders, plans to keep Tri Pointe as a distinct brand with its existing leadership, home office in Irvine, California, and 17 divisions, using the added scale and capital to expand affordable, high-quality housing supply in key growth markets. The transaction advances Sumitomo Forestry’s Mission TREEING 2030 target of 23,000 annual U.S. home sales, supported by a ¥5.4 billion-equivalent debt financing commitment and retention bonuses designed to secure Tri Pointe’s senior management through closing, while no financing condition applies to completion of the merger.

The most recent analyst rating on (TPH) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tri Pointe stock, see the TPH Stock Forecast page.