Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.60B
• Dividend Yield: 3.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 603.78K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.28
• Revenue Growth: 3.17%
• EPS Growth: 12.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 19,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Travel Services
• EPS (TTM): 1.83
• Shares Outstanding: 62,397,736
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 672,829
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 603,781
• PEG Ratio: -0.58
• Price to Book (P/B): -4.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.15
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.56
• 1Y Price Target: $87.00
• Price Target Upside: 18.05% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $4.12B

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $80.00 ▲(8.55% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/19/26

The score is held back mainly by balance-sheet risk (negative equity) and 2025 margin/net income compression, despite solid cash generation. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key moving averages, and the latest earnings call/guidance is broadly constructive with ongoing buybacks/dividend support. Valuation appears reasonable but not cheap at ~21x earnings.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation and FCF conversion

Consistent operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow show the business converts revenue into cash sustainably. This supports reinvestment, dividends and buybacks, and provides a durable buffer against cyclical softness while enabling strategic initiatives over the next 2–6 months.

Vacation Ownership unit economics momentum

POV: Strong VOI sales growth, rising VPG and very high-quality originations indicate robust unit economics and demand durability. High FICO and meaningful down payments reduce credit risk, supporting margin sustainability and repeatable cash flows from the core vacation ownership franchise.

Disciplined capital allocation & balance sheet actions

Management has a track record of returning capital, shrinking share count and expanding dividends while keeping leverage manageable. Coupled with refinancing/pricing actions and a stated leverage metric under 3.1x, this signals governance discipline and financial flexibility to support long‑term shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative shareholders' equity

Negative equity is a structural balance-sheet weakness that distorts return metrics and limits flexibility for large capital actions. It raises refinancing and covenant sensitivity and can constrain strategic options if macro credit conditions tighten over the medium term.

Margin and bottom-line pressure in 2025

Material margin compression and lower net income indicate rising costs, weaker operating leverage or mix shifts. Sustained margin pressure would reduce cash conversion and limit room for reinvestment or further shareholder returns absent offsetting pricing or productivity gains.

Structural pressures: Travel & Membership and resort impairments

A declining Travel & Membership segment and a sizable non-cash impairment from portfolio pruning are structural headwinds. They create revenue volatility, reduce high‑margin management fees, and necessitate execution risk on optimization savings and credit provisions to restore long‑term margin stability.

Travel + Leisure Co Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Travel + Leisure Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides hospitality services and products in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Vacation Ownership; and Travel and Membership. The Vacation Ownership segment develops, markets, and sells vacation ownership interests (VOIs) to individual consumers; provides consumer financing in connection with the sale of VOIs; and provides property management services at resorts. The Travel and Membership segment operates various businesses, including three vacation exchange brands, a home exchange network, travel technology platforms, travel memberships, and direct-to-consumer rentals. As of January 26, 2022, it had approximately 245 vacation ownership resorts. It also offers private-label travel booking technology solutions. The company was formerly known as Wyndham Destinations, Inc. and changed its name to Travel + Leisure Co. in February 2021. Travel + Leisure Co. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Travel + Leisure Co generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source is the sale of vacation ownership interests, which allows customers to purchase time in a vacation property. TNL also earns revenue from the management of these properties, including maintenance fees and other associated costs. Additionally, the company generates income through its exchange services, allowing owners to trade their timeshares for stays at other properties worldwide. Advertising revenue from its travel publications and digital platforms further contributes to its earnings. Significant partnerships with hotels, resorts, and travel service providers also play a crucial role in enhancing its offerings and driving revenue growth.

Travel + Leisure Co Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals. Revenue recovered strongly since 2020 and cash generation is solid (2025 operating cash flow $640M; free cash flow $523M), but profitability weakened in 2025 (net income down to $230M from $411M; EBITDA margin compressed). The balance sheet is the key risk: persistent negative equity and historically high debt levels reduce financial flexibility (despite 2025 debt reporting showing a major swing).

Income Statement

Revenue has expanded from $2.16B (2020) to $4.02B (2025), but growth slowed to low-single digits in the last two years. Profitability improved materially versus 2020’s loss, with 2025 gross margin strong (~55%), but bottom-line profitability weakened: net income fell to $230M in 2025 from $411M in 2024 and net margin declined to ~5.7% from ~10.6%. EBITDA margin also compressed in 2025 (~17% vs. ~23% in 2024), pointing to higher costs and/or weaker operating leverage.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is the key weak spot: stockholders’ equity is consistently negative (about -$0.98B in 2025), which signals an aggressive capital structure and limits financial flexibility. Debt was very high in 2021–2024 (~$5.4B–$5.8B) relative to the asset base (~$6.7B), increasing sensitivity to downturns and refinancing conditions. While 2025 shows total debt reported as $0 (a major year-over-year swing that may reflect classification/reporting changes), equity remains deeply negative, and returns to equity are not meaningful/are distorted with negative equity.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains solid: operating cash flow was $640M in 2025 and free cash flow was $523M, broadly consistent with a business that converts earnings into cash. Free cash flow has been volatile (notably down ~35% in 2025 after improving in 2024), which raises questions on sustainability and working-capital/investment swings. Free cash flow covered net income at roughly ~0.82x in 2025, indicating decent (though not exceptional) cash backing to reported profits.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.02B	3.86B	3.75B	3.57B	3.13B
Gross Profit	1.09B	1.89B	1.82B	1.73B	1.57B
EBITDA	828.00M	877.00M	848.00M	800.00M	751.00M
Net Income	230.00M	411.00M	396.00M	357.00M	308.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	6.76B	6.74B	6.74B	6.76B	6.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	253.00M	184.00M	296.00M	562.00M	396.00M
Total Debt	4.91B	5.67B	5.73B	5.75B	5.45B
Total Liabilities	7.74B	7.62B	7.66B	7.66B	7.38B
Stockholders Equity	-982.00M	-881.00M	-918.00M	-913.00M	-801.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	523.00M	383.00M	276.00M	390.00M	511.00M
Operating Cash Flow	640.00M	464.00M	350.00M	442.00M	568.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-107.00M	-124.00M	-80.00M	-50.00M	-93.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-443.00M	-458.00M	-500.00M	-196.00M	-1.29B

Travel + Leisure Co Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 73.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 73.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.29, above the 50-day MA of 72.61, and above the 200-day MA of 61.96, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TNL.

Travel + Leisure Co Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ABNB	75 Outperform	$82.24B	33.43	30.23%	―	10.56%	47.16%
TCOM	71 Outperform	$34.67B	8.45	19.95%	0.39%	17.34%	91.51%
TNL	63 Neutral	$4.60B	21.44	―	3.10%	3.17%	12.57%
EXPE	62 Neutral	$26.43B	21.99	91.09%	0.56%	7.29%	36.51%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
MMYT	53 Neutral	$5.36B	112.92	13.02%	―	14.55%	-68.46%
TRIP	51 Neutral	$1.16B	33.79	5.04%	―	4.24%	159.81%

Travel + Leisure Co Corporate Events

Travel + Leisure posts 2025 results, boosts 2026 outlook

Travel + Leisure Co. reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 18, 2026, posting 2025 net revenue of $4.02 billion and net income of $230 million, despite $216 million in inventory write-downs tied to a Resort Optimization Initiative. Vacation Ownership drove 8% growth in full-year Gross VOI sales to $2.49 billion and margin improvement, while the Travel and Membership segment saw revenue and Adjusted EBITDA declines amid lower revenue per transaction and a mix shift toward lower-margin travel club activity.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company generated net revenue of $1.03 billion but recorded a net loss of $61 million due to $210 million of impairments related to resort optimization, even as Adjusted EBITDA rose to $272 million. Management exceeded its 2025 outlook, strengthened liquidity to $1.15 billion, refinanced term debt at a lower interest rate, executed $300 million of share repurchases and $149 million of dividends for the year, and outlined 2026 guidance that calls for higher Adjusted EBITDA, continued VOI sales growth, and a positive financial impact from the Resort Optimization Initiative alongside a new $750 million share buyback authorization and a planned dividend increase.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNL) stock is a Buy with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Travel + Leisure Co stock, see the TNL Stock Forecast page.

Travel + Leisure Co Amends Credit Agreement for Growth

On December 10, 2025, Travel + Leisure Co. announced the closing of the Eighth Amendment to its Credit Agreement, which involved repricing $869 million of outstanding borrowings under the 2024 Term Loan B Facility. This repricing reduced the interest rate by 50 basis points, reflecting the company’s strong business model and improved credit profile, thus enhancing financial flexibility and supporting its growth and value creation strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNL) stock is a Buy with a $76.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Travel + Leisure Co stock, see the TNL Stock Forecast page.