Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)
NASDAQ:TNDM
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Tandem Diabetes Care
(NASDAQ:TNDM)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$21.50
▼(-11.38% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (ongoing losses, higher leverage, and renewed cash burn). Technicals also remain bearish despite oversold signals. These negatives are partly offset by a more positive earnings outlook and improving margins, but near-term headwinds from the PayGo transition limit confidence.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Installed Base
FY2025 revenue topping $1B and an installed base of ~325k demonstrate durable market penetration. A large, growing installed base drives recurring consumables and retention, supporting predictable reorder revenue, scale benefits for distribution, and a steady foundation for long‑term growth.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Leverage rising to ~2.86x materially reduces financial flexibility and increases interest and refinancing risk. With continued operating losses, higher debt magnifies downside risk, constrains strategic options, and elevates the probability that future growth investments require external funding or dilution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Installed Base
FY2025 revenue topping $1B and an installed base of ~325k demonstrate durable market penetration. A large, growing installed base drives recurring consumables and retention, supporting predictable reorder revenue, scale benefits for distribution, and a steady foundation for long‑term growth.
Read all positive factors
Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.66B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth17.87%
EPS Growth-57.03%
CountryUS
Employees2,650
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding68,325,930
10 Day Avg. Volume2,099,504
30 Day Avg. Volume2,628,233
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.07
Price to Book (P/B)9.53
Price to Sales (P/S)1.46
P/FCF Ratio-49.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.10
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.90
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-12.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.29Price Target Upside28.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.08B
Tandem Diabetes Care Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc., a medical device company, designs, develops, and commercializes various products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States and internationally. The company's flagship product is the t:slim X2 insul...
How the Company Makes Money
Tandem primarily makes money by selling its insulin pump hardware and, more importantly, generating recurring revenue from ongoing consumables and supplies used with its pumps. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Insulin pump sales: Revenue...
Tandem Diabetes Care Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial progress (record revenue, record quarter, margin expansion, positive free cash flow, a deep product pipeline and explicit shipment growth targets) while transparently outlining near-term headwinds from the strategic shift to a pharmacy PayGo model and international direct transitions. Management emphasized that these short-term revenue impacts are intentional investments to improve long-term accessibility, margins and predictable recurring revenue, and they reiterated concrete 2026 targets (shipments, margin expansion, and sales ranges) to bridge the transition.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Milestone of $1 Billion
Tandem surpassed $1.0 billion in worldwide sales for FY2025. Full-year worldwide sales grew 12% year-over-year, with U.S. sales up 10% to $707 million and international sales up 15% to $308 million.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Revenue Headwinds from PayGo Transition
Adoption of the pay-as-you-go pharmacy model creates near-term revenue headwinds: $70M–$80M of pricing headwinds in U.S. and $85M–$95M total worldwide headwinds expected in 2026 as revenue recognition shifts from upfront pump sales to recurring supply purchases.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Milestone of $1 Billion
Tandem surpassed $1.0 billion in worldwide sales for FY2025. Full-year worldwide sales grew 12% year-over-year, with U.S. sales up 10% to $707 million and international sales up 15% to $308 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance recapped 2025 and laid out 2026 targets: 2025 topped $1.0B in revenue with worldwide sales +12% (U.S. $707M, +10%; International $308M, +15%), Q4 sales $290M (+15% YoY) including record Q4 U.S. pump shipments >27,000 (international Q4 shipments 11,000) and an installed base ~325k (≈0.5M global customers); full‑year distributor destocking/buyback impact ≈$7M. For 2026 they expect worldwide sales of $1.065–1.085B (reflecting $85–95M of headwinds from strategic changes), U.S. sales $730–745M (pump shipments +10–11% YoY; pharmacy ~15% of U.S. sales vs 4% in 2025; ~80% of 2026 shipments via DME initially), international $335–340M (direct sales ~15% of international), and Q1 2026 sales $236–240M (≈$10M headwind). Margin and profitability targets include 2025 gross margin 54% (Q4 58%), adjusted EBITDA 11% in Q4 and Q4 operating margin 3%; 2026 gross margin guided to 56–57% (scaling from ~54% in Q1 to ~60% in Q4), adjusted EBITDA 5–6% for the year (Q1 -2% to -1%), nearly $300M cash at year‑end 2025, FCF positive in Q3/Q4 2025 and expected FCF neutral in 2026. They also detailed commercial shifts: accelerating pharmacy PayGo (long‑term pharmacy >70% of sales, pharmacy reimbursement >4x DME), expect renewal pumps >50% of shipments, and plan multiple product milestones (three Q2 launches, Dexcom 15‑day sensor integration, Mobi Tubeless 510(k) in Q2 with H2 launch target).Tandem Diabetes Care Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.01B | 940.20M | 747.72M | 801.22M | 702.80M |
| Gross Profit | 530.85M | 489.57M | 367.69M | 412.99M | 376.21M |
| EBITDA | -174.70M | -99.13M | -196.46M | -74.21M | 34.06M |
| Net Income | -204.71M | -96.03M | -222.61M | -94.59M | 15.57M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 881.11M | 967.66M | 952.66M | 1.05B | 905.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 292.67M | 438.33M | 467.91M | 616.90M | 623.81M |
| Total Debt | 444.48M | 473.56M | 415.67M | 419.88M | 314.67M |
| Total Liabilities | 725.94M | 704.56M | 639.03M | 612.84M | 472.02M |
| Stockholders Equity | 155.17M | 263.10M | 313.63M | 439.95M | 433.11M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -29.67M | 4.99M | -58.61M | 16.37M | 87.85M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -9.72M | 24.23M | -31.81M | 50.46M | 111.36M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 72.88M | -23.48M | -85.74M | 33.17M | -186.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -43.37M | 8.37M | 4.11M | 16.88M | 51.93M |
Tandem Diabetes Care Technical Analysis
Positive
24.26
Price Trends
21.72
Positive
20.90
Positive
17.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.70
Negative
56.72
Neutral
68.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNDM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.38, above the 50-day MA of 21.72, and above the 200-day MA of 17.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.70 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TNDM.
Tandem Diabetes Care Risk Analysis
Tandem Diabetes Care disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tandem Diabetes Care reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tandem Diabetes Care Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $25.72B | 30.97 | 32.44% | ― | 14.21% | 5.66% | |
75 Outperform | $48.01B | 46.44 | 10.39% | ― | 0.19% | 65.58% | |
68 Neutral | $15.21B | 80.92 | 17.36% | ― | 27.12% | -41.72% | |
67 Neutral | $112.84B | 28.29 | 9.54% | 2.76% | 5.34% | 13.15% | |
64 Neutral | $26.13B | 24.78 | 8.21% | 3.30% | -0.76% | -55.03% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | $1.66B | -7.22 | -141.98% | ― | 17.87% | -57.03% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
TNDM
Tandem Diabetes Care
24.26
4.60
23.40%
DXCM
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EW
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82.67
11.58
16.29%
PODD
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216.00
-48.88
-18.45%
PHG
Koninklijke Philips
27.44
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MDT
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87.89
2.36
2.76%
Tandem Diabetes Care Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Tandem Diabetes Care Announces Convertible Senior Notes Offering
Neutral
Feb 27, 2026
Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. is a global insulin delivery and diabetes technology company that manufactures advanced automated insulin delivery systems, including the Tandem Mobi and t:slim X2 pumps with Control-IQ+ hybrid closed-loop technology. Ba...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tandem Diabetes Care Updates Bylaws, Tightens Governance Rules
Neutral
Dec 30, 2025
On December 26, 2025, Tandem Diabetes Care’s board of directors approved Amended and Restated Bylaws as part of a periodic governance review, immediately replacing the prior bylaws. The revisions significantly update advance notice requireme...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.