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Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)
NASDAQ:TNDM

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) AI Stock Analysis

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Tandem Diabetes Care

(NASDAQ:TNDM)

46Neutral
Tandem Diabetes Care's score reflects its robust revenue growth and promising product innovations, especially with the Control-IQ+ expansion into the type 2 diabetes market. However, profitability challenges, bearish technical indicators, and valuation risks are significant concerns. The earnings call highlights positive strategic initiatives but also points to execution risks, impacting the overall score.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Tandem delivered a good Q1, reaffirmed its guidance, and still trades at a very attractive valuation with multiple catalysts – product pipeline, the T2D opportunity, and financial inflection point.
Growth Prospects
The results of TNDM's type 2 trial are compelling and will help restore confidence in TNDM's growth prospects.
Strategic Partnerships
Tandem Diabetes Care is expected to benefit from the integration of its products with Abbott's Libre 3 continuous glucose monitor, opening a significant patient opportunity.
Negative Factors
Competitive Risks
Recent macro consumer pressures could increase competitive and pricing risks for Tandem Diabetes Care.
Earnings Expectations
Tandem Diabetes Care shares fell following its earnings call as results fell short of expectations.
Market Share Concerns
Analyst's survey indicates Tandem Diabetes Care could lose market share due to higher patient preference for competing patch-pump versus tubed-pump form factors.

Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Tandem Diabetes Care Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTandem Diabetes Care, Inc., a medical device company, designs, develops, and commercializes various products for people with insulin-dependent diabetes in the United States and internationally. The company's flagship product is the t:slim X2 insulin delivery system, a pump platform that comprises t:slim X2 pump, its 300-unit disposable insulin cartridge, and an infusion set. It also provides t:slim X2 insulin with Basal-IQ and control IQ technology; t:slim X2 with G5 Integration; and Tandem Device Updater, a tool that allows users to update their pump's software. In addition, the company offers t:connect, a web-based data management application, which provides a visual way to display diabetes therapy management data from the pump, continuous glucose monitoring, and supported blood glucose meters for users, their caregivers, and their healthcare providers; and Sugarmate, a mobile app for people with diabetes who use insulin. It has development and commercialization agreements with Dexcom, Inc. and Abbott Laboratories. The company was formerly known as Phluid Inc. and changed its name to Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. in January 2008. Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyTandem Diabetes Care generates revenue primarily through the sale of its insulin pump systems and associated supplies, such as cartridges and infusion sets. The company's flagship product line, the t:slim X2 insulin pump, is a key driver of its revenue. Additionally, Tandem offers software applications that integrate with its hardware to provide continuous glucose monitoring and data management services. Revenue is also derived from customer support services and training programs for healthcare providers and patients. Tandem's earnings are bolstered by strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and insurance companies, facilitating broader access to its products. The company also invests in research and development to innovate and enhance its offerings, which can contribute to increased market share and revenue growth.

Tandem Diabetes Care Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tandem Diabetes Care shows strong revenue growth and improved cash flow health. However, profitability remains a concern with persistent net losses and negative operating margins. The balance sheet reflects increased leverage, though cash reserves offer some stability. Focus on enhancing operational efficiency and controlling debt levels could drive better financial performance.
Income Statement
67
Positive
Tandem Diabetes Care shows robust revenue growth with a 25.7% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a net loss, with a net profit margin of -10.2% in 2024. Gross profit margin remains strong at 52.1%, but negative EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate challenges in operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet indicates a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.80, showing a reliance on debt. Stockholders' equity has decreased, impacting the equity ratio to 27.2%. Return on equity is negative at -36.5%, reflecting profitability challenges. However, the company maintains a healthy cash position relative to its debt.
Cash Flow
62
Positive
Cash flow has improved significantly, with free cash flow turning positive in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 0.25, indicating some efficiency in converting net income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also positive, showing improved cash generation capabilities.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
940.20M747.72M801.22M702.80M498.83M
Gross Profit
489.57M367.69M412.99M376.21M260.52M
EBIT
-99.13M-233.23M-61.81M8.81M-7.96M
EBITDA
-99.13M-194.66M-72.31M36.50M-13.03M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-96.03M-222.61M-94.59M15.57M-34.38M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
438.33M467.91M616.90M623.81M484.94M
Total Assets
967.66M952.66M1.05B905.14M716.41M
Total Debt
473.56M415.67M419.88M314.67M228.32M
Net Debt
404.33M356.80M247.36M243.49M133.71M
Total Liabilities
704.56M639.03M612.84M472.02M350.11M
Stockholders Equity
263.10M313.63M439.95M433.11M366.31M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
4.99M-83.41M7.51M87.85M-7.63M
Operating Cash Flow
24.23M-31.81M50.46M111.36M24.67M
Investing Cash Flow
-23.48M-85.74M33.17M-186.88M-296.06M
Financing Cash Flow
8.37M4.11M16.88M51.93M314.44M

Tandem Diabetes Care Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price19.98
Price Trends
50DMA
19.94
Positive
100DMA
27.56
Negative
200DMA
32.95
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.65
Negative
RSI
58.98
Neutral
STOCH
55.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNDM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 19.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.22, above the 50-day MA of 19.94, and below the 200-day MA of 32.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TNDM.

Tandem Diabetes Care Risk Analysis

Tandem Diabetes Care disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tandem Diabetes Care reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tandem Diabetes Care Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$17.84B43.8843.03%22.07%101.95%
73
Outperform
$1.64B27.9618.76%26.08%30.54%
64
Neutral
$25.93B46.4327.63%11.34%4.24%
64
Neutral
$1.15B14.055.45%1.90%
54
Neutral
$2.01B32.224.87%8.33%256.54%
52
Neutral
$5.28B3.75-42.72%2.86%17.70%2.03%
46
Neutral
$1.14B-33.30%25.74%57.18%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TNDM
Tandem Diabetes Care
19.98
-24.74
-55.32%
DXCM
Dexcom
70.26
-58.11
-45.27%
PODD
Insulet
250.25
75.82
43.47%
UFPT
Ufp Technologies
212.33
-49.81
-19.00%
LIVN
LivaNova
36.79
-27.36
-42.65%
AHCO
AdaptHealth
8.50
-1.76
-17.15%

Tandem Diabetes Care Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 18.58%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects strong performance in Q1 with record sales and strategic expansions, particularly in the pharmacy channel and international markets. Significant product developments and operational improvements have positioned the company well, although some challenges remain in realizing immediate type 2 diabetes market impacts and navigating market transitions.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record First-Quarter Sales
Achieved record first-quarter sales of $234 million, marking a 22% year-over-year growth. This includes $151 million in the U.S. (15% increase) and $84 million internationally (35% increase).
Successful Product Launch and FDA Clearance
FDA cleared Control-IQ+ for type 2 diabetes, and the New England Journal of Medicine published results highlighting its benefits. This more than doubles the addressable market.
Strong Customer Retention and New Starts
Double-digit increase in new pump starts, with significant conversions from multiple daily injections. Renewal rates remain high with a healthy product mix.
Gross Margin and EBITDA Improvement
Achieved a 51% gross margin and improved adjusted EBITDA margin by 5 percentage points year-over-year, driven by pump cost efficiencies and favorable pricing.
Expansion in Pharmacy Channel
Approximately 30% of U.S. lives are covered under the pharmacy benefit, with improvement in pricing and reduced out-of-pocket costs for customers.
International Growth and Direct Sales Plans
Strong international sales momentum with plans to begin direct sales in select countries by 2026, enhancing market presence and financial performance.
Negative Updates
Limited Type 2 Commercial Impact in 2025
Despite FDA clearance, only modest contribution from type 2 diabetes sales is expected in 2025 due to reimbursement and Medicare access challenges.
Potential Headwinds from Market Transitions
Anticipate $15 million to $20 million headwinds in the back half of 2025 due to transitioning to direct sales in select international markets.
Sales Force Realignment Disruptions
Although managed well, the sales force expansion and realignment caused some temporary disruptions, with full productivity expected by Q4.
Company Guidance
During the Tandem Diabetes Care First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported robust performance metrics, including a 22% year-over-year growth in worldwide sales, reaching a record $234 million. The U.S. saw a 15% increase in sales, driven by healthy pump shipments, strong supply sales, and improved average selling prices. Internationally, sales surged by 35% year-over-year, totaling $84 million, marking the highest quarterly sales to date. The company also reported a significant improvement in adjusted EBITDA margins by five percentage points year-over-year. Tandem reiterated its commitment to delivering double-digit growth and improved profitability, maintaining its 2025 guidance for sales to range between $997 million and just over $1 billion and aiming for a 54% gross margin. Additionally, Tandem highlighted FDA clearance of Control-IQ+ for type 2 diabetes, which has expanded their addressable market, and discussed strategic initiatives such as pharmacy channel expansion and international sales operations.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.