AdaptHealth (AHCO)
NASDAQ:AHCO
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AdaptHealth
(NASDAQ:AHCO)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(5.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation but tempered by volatile financial performance (sharp TTM revenue decline and net loss) and ongoing leverage risk. Technicals are supportive with price above major moving averages and positive momentum. Earnings call guidance and the capitated contract provide a constructive forward outlook, while valuation remains pressured due to losses (negative P/E).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF
Sustained operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility: they enable continued debt reduction, fund capex and onboarding costs for growth initiatives, and support reinvestment in operations even when accounting earnings are volatile, enhancing long‑term resilience.
Negative Factors
Revenue and earnings volatility
Sharp, multi‑period revenue declines and episodic swings to net losses undermine predictability for margins and cash conversion. This cyclicality complicates planning, makes capital allocation harder, and raises execution risk that operating leverage may not consistently translate into sustainable net earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF
Sustained operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility: they enable continued debt reduction, fund capex and onboarding costs for growth initiatives, and support reinvestment in operations even when accounting earnings are volatile, enhancing long‑term resilience.
Read all positive factors
AdaptHealth (AHCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.61M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth-0.23%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees10,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding135,914,810
10 Day Avg. Volume1,720,751
30 Day Avg. Volume1,610,462
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio6.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.17
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit18.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.38Price Target Upside8.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.47B
AdaptHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AdaptHealth Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides home medical equipment (HME), medical supplies, and home and related services in the United States. The company provides sleep therapy equipment, supplies, and related services, such as C...
How the Company Makes Money
AdaptHealth primarily makes money by providing home medical equipment, consumable supplies, and related services that are reimbursed by third-party payors. A major component of its revenue model is ongoing resupply and recurring utilization tied t...
AdaptHealth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down income from various business segments, indicating which parts of the company are generating the most revenue and where growth opportunities or challenges may exist.
Breaks down income from various business segments, indicating which parts of the company are generating the most revenue and where growth opportunities or challenges may exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdaptHealth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive outlook driven by operational improvements, record patient census in key segments, strong adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow performance, meaningful debt reduction, credit upgrades, and a major capitated contract with successful early onboarding and clear revenue/margin upside in 2026. Offsetting risks include reported revenue declines due to dispositions, weakness and a goodwill impairment in the Diabetes segment, a one-time legal settlement and accelerated onboarding costs that pressure near-term working capital and leverage, and anticipated negative free cash flow and margin drag in Q1 2026 as the capitated contract ramps. Overall, the positive operational momentum, cash generation, strategic contract win and upwardly revised 2026 guidance outweigh the near-term financial headwinds and one-time charges.Positive Updates
Revenue Beat and Organic Growth
Full year 2025 net revenue of $3.245B and Q4 revenue of $846.3M both exceeded the midpoint of guidance; organic revenue growth was 1.7% for both the full year and Q4.
Negative Updates
Reported Revenue Slightly Down on a Reported Basis
Full year 2025 net revenue decreased 0.5% YoY on a reported basis; Q4 net revenue decreased 1.2% YoY on a reported basis (though organic +1.7%). Dispositions reduced FY revenue by $92.4M.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Beat and Organic Growth
Full year 2025 net revenue of $3.245B and Q4 revenue of $846.3M both exceeded the midpoint of guidance; organic revenue growth was 1.7% for both the full year and Q4.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AdaptHealth guided 2026 net revenue of $3.44–3.51 billion (6–8% growth vs. 2025, ~7% at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA of $680–730 million (midpoint implying ~20.3% adjusted EBITDA margin, ~1 ppt improvement vs. 2025) and free cash flow of $175–225 million; management expects organic growth of 7.5–9.5% partially offset by ~1.5% net revenue compression from acquisitions/dispositions, with 5–6% of 2026 growth attributable to the new capitated agreement and 2.5–3.5% from the rest of the business. They forecast Q1 revenue +2–3% year‑over‑year, a Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin of ~16% (carrying upfront capitated costs), Q1 free cash flow of negative $20–40 million, and a quarter‑by‑quarter capitated ramp that adds “a few points” each quarter to reach low‑double‑digit growth by Q4; roughly one‑third of full‑year free cash flow is expected in the first half. CapEx was ~12.3% of revenue in Q4 and management indicated that run‑rate is broadly sustainable as they absorb infrastructure costs.AdaptHealth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.24B | 3.26B | 3.20B | 2.97B | 2.45B |
| Gross Profit | 568.56M | 681.09M | 681.77M | 417.43M | 445.61M |
| EBITDA | 503.64M | 628.02M | -171.09M | 630.76M | 544.21M |
| Net Income | -70.79M | 90.42M | -678.89M | 69.32M | 156.18M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.32B | 4.49B | 4.51B | 5.22B | 5.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 106.14M | 109.75M | 77.13M | 46.27M | 149.63M |
| Total Debt | 1.90B | 2.13B | 2.29B | 2.33B | 2.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.79B | 2.91B | 3.04B | 3.06B | 3.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.52B | 1.57B | 1.46B | 2.15B | 2.06B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 219.38M | 235.78M | 143.20M | -17.56M | 72.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 601.77M | 541.84M | 480.67M | 373.87M | 275.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -303.19M | -310.27M | -357.28M | -411.17M | -1.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -302.19M | -198.95M | -92.53M | -66.05M | 1.60B |
AdaptHealth Technical Analysis
Positive
11.41
Price Trends
10.15
Positive
9.99
Positive
9.59
Positive
Market Momentum
0.31
Negative
66.13
Neutral
84.70
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AHCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.12, above the 50-day MA of 10.15, and above the 200-day MA of 9.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.70 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AHCO.
AdaptHealth Risk Analysis
AdaptHealth disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AdaptHealth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AdaptHealth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $1.46B | 25.04 | 17.36% | ― | 29.47% | 23.24% | |
61 Neutral | $1.52B | -3.28 | -4.63% | ― | -0.23% | ― | |
56 Neutral | $1.07B | 26.78 | 4.68% | 2.02% | 4.69% | -51.57% | |
56 Neutral | $1.62B | -95.98 | -13.44% | ― | 18.72% | 85.77% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
47 Neutral | $717.02M | -1.85 | -39.90% | ― | 4.99% | -7151.40% | |
45 Neutral | $1.43B | -7.22 | -141.98% | ― | 17.87% | -57.03% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AHCO
AdaptHealth
11.20
0.56
5.26%
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34.58
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IART
Integra Lifesciences
9.20
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UFPT
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189.45
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-4.95%
TNDM
Tandem Diabetes Care
21.00
1.72
8.92%
AXGN
AxoGen
31.28
12.92
70.37%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.