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AdaptHealth
(NASDAQ:AHCO)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▼(-17.06% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/08/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—steady revenue and solid operating cash flow, but net losses, margin pressure, and meaningful leverage. The latest earnings call and related financing actions are supportive (raised revenue guidance, maintained EBITDA/FCF targets, refinancing), while technicals are largely neutral and valuation is constrained by loss-making results and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large Capitated Contract Win
The multi-million member capitated win creates a durable, contracted revenue stream and accelerates scale in HME delivery. Exclusive provider status to >10M members and ~15M capitated membership should increase recurring resupply sales and utilization-based revenue as the rollout fully ramps.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage and Net Losses
Persistent debt loads and recent net losses leave the capital structure exposed: elevated leverage (~3.0x reported) combined with negative ROE in 2025/TTM constrains strategic flexibility. Sustained profitability improvement is required to materially de-risk credit profile and restore shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large Capitated Contract Win
The multi-million member capitated win creates a durable, contracted revenue stream and accelerates scale in HME delivery. Exclusive provider status to >10M members and ~15M capitated membership should increase recurring resupply sales and utilization-based revenue as the rollout fully ramps.
Read all positive factors
AdaptHealth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down income from various business segments, indicating which parts of the company are generating the most revenue and where growth opportunities or challenges may exist.
Breaks down income from various business segments, indicating which parts of the company are generating the most revenue and where growth opportunities or challenges may exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdaptHealth (AHCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.39B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.47M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.30
Revenue Growth1.24%
EPS Growth-202.42%
CountryUS
Employees10,900
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.59
Shares Outstanding136,054,150
10 Day Avg. Volume1,122,135
30 Day Avg. Volume1,468,791
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio6.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.14
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.17Price Target Upside11.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.48B
AdaptHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AdaptHealth Corp., alongside its network of subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive range of home medical equipment (HME), supplies, and associated services across the United States. The company specializes in sleep therapy, providing CPAP and bi-P...
How the Company Makes Money
AdaptHealth generates revenue primarily by providing home medical equipment and ongoing consumable supplies to patients under insurance reimbursement. A key revenue stream is sleep therapy, where the company earns from both (1) the initial dispens...
AdaptHealth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a major strategic win — completion of a large capitated transition, robust organic revenue growth (9.1% y/y), strong segment performance (notably Sleep and Respiratory), important technology milestones, and a refinancing that improves financial flexibility. Near-term challenges include elevated transition-related labor costs ($12M), a Q1 adjusted EBITDA miss (~$7M), negative free cash flow in the quarter due to elevated CapEx ($121.2M), and a temporary increase in leverage to ~3.0x. Management expects labor costs and CapEx to normalize by mid-year, maintains full-year EBITDA and free cash flow guidance, and raised revenue guidance slightly. Overall, strategic progress and forward-looking actions appear to outweigh the near-term execution and cash impacts.Positive Updates
Successful Large-Scale Capitated Transition
Completed the largest patient transition in HME history, establishing 35 de novo locations and becoming the exclusive HME provider for >10 million new members; capitated membership increased ~7x year-over-year to about 15 million and capitated net revenue comprised 9.2% of consolidated net revenue in Q1.
Negative Updates
Elevated Labor Costs Impacting Profitability
Q1 incurred $12 million of elevated labor expense related to the capitated transition (≈$8M variable labor to accelerate the transition and ≈$4M elevated wages/benefits for rightsizing), contributing to an adjusted EBITDA shortfall; company expects normalization by end of Q2 and full reduction by Q3.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Large-Scale Capitated Transition
Completed the largest patient transition in HME history, establishing 35 de novo locations and becoming the exclusive HME provider for >10 million new members; capitated membership increased ~7x year-over-year to about 15 million and capitated net revenue comprised 9.2% of consolidated net revenue in Q1.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AdaptHealth raised full‑year net revenue guidance by $10M to $3.45B–$3.52B while maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance of $680M–$730M and free cash flow guidance of $175M–$225M; for Q2 management expects net revenue of $840M–$860M and an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~19% (implying just over $160M of EBITDA), with free cash flow modest/positive as CapEx steps up to support the new capitated contract. In Q1 the company reported revenue of $819.8M (+5.4% YoY, 9.1% organic), adjusted EBITDA of $121.2M (14.8% margin), cash flow from operations of $93.7M, free cash flow of –$27.5M and CapEx of $121.2M; capitated revenue was $74.9M (9.2% of consolidated revenue) and capitated membership rose ~7x to ~15M. Balance‑sheet and financing targets include unrestricted cash of ~$48M, net debt of ~$1.84B (3.0x net leverage vs. 2.75x in Q4), a $1.1B refinancing ( $325M TLA / $325M delayed draw / $450M revolver maturing Apr 2031) and a target net leverage of 2.5x; elevated Q1 labor costs of ~$12M ($8M variable, $4M wage/benefit) should normalize by end‑Q2 with full benefit by Q3, and management expects FCF to normalize with roughly $100M in each of Q3 and Q4.AdaptHealth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.86B | 3.24B | 3.26B | 3.20B | 2.97B | 2.45B |
| Gross Profit | 153.98M | 568.56M | 681.09M | 681.77M | 417.43M | 445.61M |
| EBITDA | 462.48M | 503.64M | 628.02M | -171.09M | 630.76M | 544.21M |
| Net Income | -79.63M | -70.79M | 90.42M | -678.89M | 69.32M | 156.18M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.42B | 4.32B | 4.49B | 4.51B | 5.22B | 5.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.96M | 106.14M | 109.75M | 77.13M | 46.27M | 149.63M |
| Total Debt | 2.00B | 1.90B | 2.13B | 2.29B | 2.33B | 2.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.91B | 2.79B | 2.91B | 3.04B | 3.06B | 3.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.52B | 1.57B | 1.46B | 2.15B | 2.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 191.95M | 219.38M | 235.78M | 143.20M | -17.56M | 72.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 599.97M | 601.77M | 541.84M | 480.67M | 373.87M | 275.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -412.06M | -303.19M | -310.27M | -357.28M | -411.17M | -1.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -193.59M | -302.19M | -198.95M | -92.53M | -66.05M | 1.60B |
AdaptHealth Technical Analysis
Negative
12.66
Price Trends
10.43
Negative
10.80
Negative
10.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
48.87
Neutral
40.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AHCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.11, above the 50-day MA of 10.43, and above the 200-day MA of 10.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AHCO.
AdaptHealth Risk Analysis
AdaptHealth disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AdaptHealth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AdaptHealth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $1.78B | 27.63 | 16.61% | ― | 11.19% | 7.61% | |
61 Neutral | $2.06B | -61.25 | -20.74% | ― | 22.41% | -292.36% | |
58 Neutral | $1.26B | 24.14 | 5.40% | 2.02% | 4.78% | -53.80% | |
57 Neutral | $1.43B | -2.90 | -47.65% | ― | 1.24% | -1605.54% | |
55 Neutral | $1.39B | -17.95 | -5.11% | ― | 1.24% | -202.42% | |
53 Neutral | $1.06B | -10.92 | -68.29% | ― | 4.54% | 49.66% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AHCO
AdaptHealth
10.59
1.46
15.99%
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42.79
-6.96
-13.99%
IART
Integra Lifesciences
18.78
6.68
55.21%
UFPT
Ufp Technologies
245.93
17.25
7.54%
TNDM
Tandem Diabetes Care
15.28
-0.47
-2.98%
AXGN
AxoGen
38.72
26.90
227.58%
AdaptHealth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AdaptHealth Announces Redemption of Senior Notes Due 2028
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On July 6, 2026, AdaptHealth LLC, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of AdaptHealth Corp., announced it will redeem all of its outstanding 6.125% Senior Notes due 2028, totaling $325 million in principal. The notes are to be redeemed at par plus ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
AdaptHealth Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditor and Compensation
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
On June 18, 2026, AdaptHealth held its annual shareholders’ meeting via live audio webcast, with 120.7 million shares represented, or 88.67% of eligible voting power, constituting a quorum. Stockholders were entitled to one vote per share as...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AdaptHealth Boosts Liquidity With New $1.1 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 10, 2026, AdaptHealth LLC, a subsidiary of AdaptHealth Corp., entered into a new senior secured credit agreement totaling $1.1 billion, comprising a $325 million term loan, a $325 million delayed-draw term loan and a $450 million revolvin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.