AdaptHealth (AHCO)
NASDAQ:AHCO
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AdaptHealth
(NASDAQ:AHCO)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▼(-9.16% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
The score reflects mixed financial quality (net losses and margin pressure despite steady revenue and strong operating cash flow) and weak near-term technical momentum. This is partly offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook, including a guidance raise, expected normalization of transition costs/CapEx, and actions to improve financial flexibility.
Positive Factors
Recurring revenue model
AdaptHealth's core business derives from recurring consumable resupply and service flows tied to chronic therapies (sleep, respiratory, diabetes). Those steady, payer‑reimbursed streams create durable revenue visibility, high customer lifetime value, and predictable cash inflows over multi‑year horizons.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Leverage near ~3.0x leaves limited financial flexibility; servicing sizable debt can constrain capital allocation and increases sensitivity to higher rates or slower cash conversion. Achieving target leverage reductions is necessary to restore credit optionality and reduce refinancing/interest risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring revenue model
AdaptHealth's core business derives from recurring consumable resupply and service flows tied to chronic therapies (sleep, respiratory, diabetes). Those steady, payer‑reimbursed streams create durable revenue visibility, high customer lifetime value, and predictable cash inflows over multi‑year horizons.
Read all positive factors
AdaptHealth (AHCO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.54B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth1.24%
EPS Growth-202.42%
CountryUS
Employees10,500
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Devices
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.59
Shares Outstanding136,054,150
10 Day Avg. Volume1,148,342
30 Day Avg. Volume1,464,059
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.10
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.41
P/FCF Ratio6.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.22
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit22.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.28
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.64Price Target Upside7.76% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.48B
AdaptHealth Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AdaptHealth Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides home medical equipment (HME), medical supplies, and home and related services in the United States. The company provides sleep therapy equipment, supplies, and related services, such as C...
How the Company Makes Money
AdaptHealth primarily makes money by providing home medical equipment, consumable supplies, and related services that are reimbursed by third-party payors. A major component of its revenue model is ongoing resupply and recurring utilization tied t...
AdaptHealth Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down income from various business segments, indicating which parts of the company are generating the most revenue and where growth opportunities or challenges may exist.
Breaks down income from various business segments, indicating which parts of the company are generating the most revenue and where growth opportunities or challenges may exist.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAdaptHealth Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a major strategic win — completion of a large capitated transition, robust organic revenue growth (9.1% y/y), strong segment performance (notably Sleep and Respiratory), important technology milestones, and a refinancing that improves financial flexibility. Near-term challenges include elevated transition-related labor costs ($12M), a Q1 adjusted EBITDA miss (~$7M), negative free cash flow in the quarter due to elevated CapEx ($121.2M), and a temporary increase in leverage to ~3.0x. Management expects labor costs and CapEx to normalize by mid-year, maintains full-year EBITDA and free cash flow guidance, and raised revenue guidance slightly. Overall, strategic progress and forward-looking actions appear to outweigh the near-term execution and cash impacts.Positive Updates
Successful Large-Scale Capitated Transition
Completed the largest patient transition in HME history, establishing 35 de novo locations and becoming the exclusive HME provider for >10 million new members; capitated membership increased ~7x year-over-year to about 15 million and capitated net revenue comprised 9.2% of consolidated net revenue in Q1.
Negative Updates
Elevated Labor Costs Impacting Profitability
Q1 incurred $12 million of elevated labor expense related to the capitated transition (≈$8M variable labor to accelerate the transition and ≈$4M elevated wages/benefits for rightsizing), contributing to an adjusted EBITDA shortfall; company expects normalization by end of Q2 and full reduction by Q3.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Successful Large-Scale Capitated Transition
Completed the largest patient transition in HME history, establishing 35 de novo locations and becoming the exclusive HME provider for >10 million new members; capitated membership increased ~7x year-over-year to about 15 million and capitated net revenue comprised 9.2% of consolidated net revenue in Q1.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AdaptHealth raised full‑year net revenue guidance by $10M to $3.45B–$3.52B while maintaining adjusted EBITDA guidance of $680M–$730M and free cash flow guidance of $175M–$225M; for Q2 management expects net revenue of $840M–$860M and an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~19% (implying just over $160M of EBITDA), with free cash flow modest/positive as CapEx steps up to support the new capitated contract. In Q1 the company reported revenue of $819.8M (+5.4% YoY, 9.1% organic), adjusted EBITDA of $121.2M (14.8% margin), cash flow from operations of $93.7M, free cash flow of –$27.5M and CapEx of $121.2M; capitated revenue was $74.9M (9.2% of consolidated revenue) and capitated membership rose ~7x to ~15M. Balance‑sheet and financing targets include unrestricted cash of ~$48M, net debt of ~$1.84B (3.0x net leverage vs. 2.75x in Q4), a $1.1B refinancing ( $325M TLA / $325M delayed draw / $450M revolver maturing Apr 2031) and a target net leverage of 2.5x; elevated Q1 labor costs of ~$12M ($8M variable, $4M wage/benefit) should normalize by end‑Q2 with full benefit by Q3, and management expects FCF to normalize with roughly $100M in each of Q3 and Q4.AdaptHealth Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.86B | 3.24B | 3.26B | 3.20B | 2.97B | 2.45B |
| Gross Profit | 153.98M | 568.56M | 681.09M | 681.77M | 417.43M | 445.61M |
| EBITDA | 479.20M | 503.64M | 628.02M | -171.09M | 630.76M | 544.21M |
| Net Income | -79.63M | -70.79M | 90.42M | -678.89M | 69.32M | 156.18M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.42B | 4.32B | 4.49B | 4.51B | 5.22B | 5.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.96M | 106.14M | 109.75M | 77.13M | 46.27M | 149.63M |
| Total Debt | 2.00B | 1.90B | 2.13B | 2.29B | 2.33B | 2.37B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.91B | 2.79B | 2.91B | 3.04B | 3.06B | 3.18B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.52B | 1.57B | 1.46B | 2.15B | 2.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 191.95M | 219.38M | 235.78M | 143.20M | -17.56M | 72.37M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 599.97M | 601.77M | 541.84M | 480.67M | 373.87M | 275.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -412.06M | -303.19M | -310.27M | -357.28M | -411.17M | -1.82B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -193.59M | -302.19M | -198.95M | -92.53M | -66.05M | 1.60B |
AdaptHealth Technical Analysis
Positive
12.66
Price Trends
10.72
Positive
10.40
Positive
9.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.60
Negative
71.02
Negative
79.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AHCO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.82, above the 50-day MA of 10.72, and above the 200-day MA of 9.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.02 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AHCO.
AdaptHealth Risk Analysis
AdaptHealth disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AdaptHealth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AdaptHealth Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $1.78B | 21.36 | 16.61% | ― | 11.19% | 7.61% | |
64 Neutral | $2.24B | -21.82 | -20.74% | ― | 22.41% | -292.36% | |
55 Neutral | $1.11B | 19.55 | 5.40% | 2.02% | 4.78% | -53.80% | |
54 Neutral | $1.54B | -25.75 | -5.24% | ― | 1.24% | -202.42% | |
54 Neutral | $1.08B | -39.25 | -47.65% | ― | 1.24% | -1605.54% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
44 Neutral | $1.06B | -16.07 | -68.29% | ― | 4.54% | 49.66% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AHCO
AdaptHealth
11.30
2.19
24.04%
CNMD
Conmed
36.76
-23.52
-39.02%
IART
Integra Lifesciences
13.92
0.25
1.83%
UFPT
Ufp Technologies
230.55
-13.67
-5.60%
TNDM
Tandem Diabetes Care
15.48
-7.97
-33.99%
AXGN
AxoGen
42.06
30.67
269.27%
AdaptHealth Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AdaptHealth Boosts Liquidity With New $1.1 Billion Credit Facility
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
On April 10, 2026, AdaptHealth LLC, a subsidiary of AdaptHealth Corp., entered into a new senior secured credit agreement totaling $1.1 billion, comprising a $325 million term loan, a $325 million delayed-draw term loan and a $450 million revolvin...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.