Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A (TKGZY)
OTHER OTC:TKGZY
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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A
(OTC:TKGZY)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
â–²(3.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/09/26
The score is driven by mixed fundamentals: strong reported growth/returns and a supportive earnings-call outlook are tempered by weak and volatile cash generation. Valuation is very attractive (low P/E and high dividend yield), while technicals are mildly positive with neutral momentum.
Positive Factors
Diversified fee base & payments leadership
A rapidly expanding, high-margin fee base driven by payment systems and insurance reduces reliance on interest spreads. Durable fee growth smooths revenue through rate cycles, supports operating income stability, and funds customer-acquisition investments that reinforce cross-sell and lifetime value.
Negative Factors
Weak and volatile cash generation
Reported profits are not consistently converting to cash: multi-year negative free cash flow and volatile operating cash flows reduce confidence in earnings quality. This constrains sustainable dividend capacity, limits organic capital build, and increases reliance on wholesale funding or capital markets for growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified fee base & payments leadership
A rapidly expanding, high-margin fee base driven by payment systems and insurance reduces reliance on interest spreads. Durable fee growth smooths revenue through rate cycles, supports operating income stability, and funds customer-acquisition investments that reinforce cross-sell and lifetime value.
Read all positive factors
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A (TKGZY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.98B
Dividend Yield19.08%
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.9
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth29.35%
EPS Growth-6.44%
CountryUS
Employees19,521
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding4,200,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.10
P/FCF Ratio-18.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap94.55
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.15
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. provides various banking products and services. It offers current, savings, time and term deposit, ELMA, structured deposit, and gold accounts; and general purpose, auto, revolving, house, discount, SME project, instal...
How the Company Makes Money
Garanti BBVA primarily makes money by earning (1) net interest income and (2) fee and commission income, supplemented by (3) trading/treasury income and (4) other non-interest revenues from its financial-services ecosystem.
1) Net interest income...
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operating and capital results: double-digit loan growth (45% YoY in TL loans), robust fee growth (+50% YoY), improved NIM (5.4% and +60 bps QoQ), solid capital (CET1 13.1%) and ample FX liquidity ($7.1bn). Challenges noted include a one-off Q4 tax impact, elevated operating expense growth (+67%), modestly higher NPL ratio (3.1%) driven by retail/credit cards, negative CPI-linker impact on NIM (~-40 bps), and regulatory/macroprudential uncertainty that could constrain future growth or fees. Management’s guidance is conservative (NIM +75 bps guidance, TL loan growth 30–35% in 2026, cost-of-risk 2–2.5%) and aims for mid-single-digit positive real ROE in 2026. On balance, the positive operating momentum, capital strength and fee diversification outweigh the near-term headwinds and one-offs.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Profitability
Cumulative net income of TRY 111 billion, up 21% year-on-year; full-year return on equity (ROE) of 29% (would be ~30% excluding a one-off tax effect in 4Q).
Negative Updates
4Q Tax and One-Off Effects
Fourth-quarter bottom line was negatively impacted by tax-regulation-related effects; management notes the quarter included one-off items that reduced reported profitability (excluding which ROE would be ~30%).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Profitability
Cumulative net income of TRY 111 billion, up 21% year-on-year; full-year return on equity (ROE) of 29% (would be ~30% excluding a one-off tax effect in 4Q).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided a conservative, data‑dependent 2026 operating plan anchored on macro assumptions of year‑end inflation ~25% and a policy rate of ~32% (with GDP penciled at 3.7% for ’25 and 4% for ’26), a current‑account deficit of ~1.5–2% of GDP and a budget deficit near 3.5% of GDP. On the balance sheet they expect TL loan growth of 30–35% and mid‑single‑digit FX loan growth, with total customer deposits >TRY3.0tn (69% of assets, 41% demand deposits) and TL loans at TRY1.7tn (58% of assets); asset quality guidance assumes net cost of risk normalizing to 2.0–2.5% (stage‑2 ≈10% of gross loans with 9% coverage overall and 16% FX coverage), and an NPL ratio around 3.1%. They forecast NIM expansion of ~75bps (noting 100bps policy moves change NIM ~15bps and long‑run mid‑cycle NIM ≈500bps), fee growth of 30–35% (fees +50% YoY in 2025) offsetting OpEx growth (OpEx +67% in 2025; bank‑only ~80–85% of OpEx covered by fees), and target a mid‑single‑digit positive real ROE for 2026 (2025 net income TRY111bn, +21% YoY; ROE 29% or ~30% ex one‑offs; long‑term real ROE target ~8–10% above inflation). Capital and liquidity remain strong (consolidated CET1 13.1%, CAR 17.5%, TRY179bn excess capital; external debt $9.8bn with $3.5bn short‑term and $7.1bn FX liquidity buffer), and guidance assumes no material easing of macro‑prudentials.Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 988.39B | 287.17B | 346.52B | 177.72B | 85.59B |
| Gross Profit | 410.34B | 287.17B | 199.32B | 133.01B | 61.46B |
| EBITDA | 160.63B | 0.00 | 109.31B | 78.23B | 19.35B |
| Net Income | 109.82B | 91.24B | 86.37B | 58.29B | 13.47B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.55T | 3.00T | 2.20T | 1.30T | 850.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.82B | 591.84B | 474.34B | 200.82B | 182.89B |
| Total Debt | 431.79B | 223.97B | 150.11B | 104.47B | 97.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.10T | 2.67T | 1.96T | 1.15T | 770.17B |
| Stockholders Equity | 444.07B | 329.79B | 244.70B | 152.64B | 79.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.40B | -155.25B | 186.17B | 43.63B | 31.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.98B | -145.82B | 191.28B | 45.76B | 32.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -63.06B | -46.85B | -81.76B | -55.25B | -12.41B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 222.25B | 95.27B | 10.45B | 25.67B | 29.34B |
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Technical Analysis
Negative
3.38
Price Trends
3.31
Negative
3.30
Negative
3.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.11
Negative
37.65
Neutral
57.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKGZY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.99, above the 50-day MA of 3.31, and above the 200-day MA of 3.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TKGZY.
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $20.11B | 8.44 | 17.70% | 10.29% | -6.79% | 16.13% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $11.98B | 0.93 | 27.96% | 19.08% | 29.35% | -6.44% | |
67 Neutral | $18.18B | 14.56 | 21.25% | 5.56% | -11.64% | -8.75% | |
65 Neutral | $15.71B | 6.51 | 9.31% | 3.71% | -2.90% | 16.10% | |
57 Neutral | $22.38B | 9.97 | 11.15% | 4.98% | 1.13% | -11.93% | |
56 Neutral | $15.44B | 12.58 | 21.37% | 4.29% | 12.43% | 56.30% |
* Financial Sector Average
TKGZY
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A
2.85
0.07
2.33%
BCH
Banco De Chile
36.28
11.39
45.75%
BSBR
Banco Santander Brasil
6.00
1.67
38.57%
BSAC
Banco Santander Chile
33.12
11.70
54.62%
CIB
Grupo Cibest
73.12
35.11
92.39%
WF
Woori Finance Holdings Co
65.45
32.77
100.28%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.