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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A (TKGZY)
OTHER OTC:TKGZY
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Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A
(OTC:TKGZY)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
â–²(3.55% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/09/26
The score is driven by mixed fundamentals: strong reported growth/returns and a supportive earnings-call outlook are tempered by weak and volatile cash generation. Valuation is very attractive (low P/E and high dividend yield), while technicals are mildly positive with neutral momentum.
Positive Factors
High Profitability & ROE
Sustained high ROE and large reported net income indicate durable earnings power and strong return on equity. This supports internal capital generation, dividend capacity and the bank’s ability to absorb cyclical shocks, underpinning medium-term shareholder economics.
Rapid TL Loan Growth
Very strong domestic loan growth expands core interest-earning assets and market share in retail/SME segments. If sustained, this drives net interest income scale, cross-sell opportunities and franchise strength, supporting long-term revenue resilience in Turkey’s lending market.
Strong Capital & Liquidity
Healthy CET1 and sizeable excess capital plus a meaningful FX liquidity buffer provide a structural cushion against credit and market shocks. This enhances funding flexibility, supports continued loan growth targets and reduces likelihood of forced deleveraging under stress.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Persistently negative and highly volatile cash flow undermines earnings quality and the bank’s ability to fund operations from internal cash. Over months this raises reliance on wholesale funding, constrains capital deployment and increases sensitivity to funding-cost shocks or tighter market access.
Elevated Operating Expenses
Structural OpEx growth driven by salary and customer-acquisition investments weakens operating leverage. If cost inflation persists, margin expansion from NIM and fees may be offset, limiting sustainable profitability and pressuring efficiency ratios over the medium term.
Asset-quality Pressure in Retail/Cards
Rising NPLs concentrated in retail and credit cards, combined with lower stage-2 coverage, signal higher prospective credit costs. Over several quarters this can elevate provisions, compress net income and potentially require capital if delinquencies continue to deteriorate.
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A (TKGZY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$12.62B
Dividend Yield19.08%
Average Volume (3M)0.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)0.9
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth29.35%
EPS Growth-6.44%
CountryUS
Employees19,521
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding4,200,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume0
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.23
Price to Sales (P/S)0.10
P/FCF Ratio-18.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap88.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.90
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTurkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. provides various banking products and services. It offers current, savings, time and term deposit, ELMA, structured deposit, and gold accounts; and general purpose, auto, revolving, house, discount, SME project, installment, working capital, foreign currency, mortgage, and other loans, as well as spot TL and foreign currency, letters of guarantee and reference, and overdraft accounts. The company also provides various cards; and auto, liability, health, unemployment, life, house, individual accident, automobile, business premises, fire, freight, engineering, accident, loan, and agriculture insurance products, as well as pension products. In addition, it offers mutual funds, T-bills/government bonds, Eurobonds, repos, equities, dual currency deposit transactions, Turkish derivatives exchange, e-trader, forward transactions, and taxation services; cash management services; and SME specific products, such as support packages, foreign trade financing and legislation, and related services. Further, the company provides leasing, fleet management, factoring, investment and private banking, payment, safety box, and Internet and mobile/SMS banking services. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 872 branches and 5,401 ATMs. Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Istanbul, Turkey. As of May 18, 2022, Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.
How the Company Makes MoneyGaranti BBVA primarily makes money through its banking operations. The core earnings driver is net interest income: the bank pays interest on customer deposits and other funding sources and earns interest on loans, credit card balances, and interest-bearing securities; the spread (net interest margin) after funding costs contributes to revenue. A second major stream is net fee and commission income generated from services such as card fees and interchange-related revenues, money transfers, account and transaction fees, merchant acquiring and payment processing, cash management services for businesses, and fees tied to lending activities (e.g., origination/administration) and trade finance. The bank can also earn trading and investment-related income from foreign exchange transactions, securities trading/valuation, and other treasury activities conducted to serve clients and manage the balance sheet, though the specific mix can vary with market conditions. Additional contributions may come from dividends and income from subsidiaries/affiliates and insurance/pension or asset-management related activities, where applicable; if present, these typically include distribution fees and commissions from cross-selling financial products through the bank’s branch and digital channels. Profitability is influenced by factors such as loan growth, deposit pricing and funding mix, credit quality and loan-loss provisions, regulatory requirements, and macroeconomic conditions (notably interest rates, inflation, and currency movements in Turkey).
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented strong operating and capital results: double-digit loan growth (45% YoY in TL loans), robust fee growth (+50% YoY), improved NIM (5.4% and +60 bps QoQ), solid capital (CET1 13.1%) and ample FX liquidity ($7.1bn). Challenges noted include a one-off Q4 tax impact, elevated operating expense growth (+67%), modestly higher NPL ratio (3.1%) driven by retail/credit cards, negative CPI-linker impact on NIM (~-40 bps), and regulatory/macroprudential uncertainty that could constrain future growth or fees. Management’s guidance is conservative (NIM +75 bps guidance, TL loan growth 30–35% in 2026, cost-of-risk 2–2.5%) and aims for mid-single-digit positive real ROE in 2026. On balance, the positive operating momentum, capital strength and fee diversification outweigh the near-term headwinds and one-offs.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Profitability
Cumulative net income of TRY 111 billion, up 21% year-on-year; full-year return on equity (ROE) of 29% (would be ~30% excluding a one-off tax effect in 4Q).
Sustained Core Revenue Momentum
Core banking revenues reached TRY 300 billion and grew for the eighth consecutive quarter; core banking revenues rose 11% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q driven by higher net interest income and resilient fees.
Very Strong Loan Growth (TL)
TL loan portfolio reached TRY 1.7 trillion; TL loans grew 10% quarter-on-quarter in 4Q and 45% for the full year, outpacing the bank's operating-plan guidance and delivering market share gains across retail and SME products.
High Deposit Base and Market Share Gains
Total customer deposits exceeded TRY 3 trillion (69% of assets); TL deposit market share among private peers increased to 21%; demand deposits represent 41% of total deposits, supporting margin resilience.
NIM and Net Interest Income Improvement
Net interest margin recovered by 60 basis points in 4Q to 5.4%; net interest income (including swap cost) roughly doubled year-on-year, and management guides for ~75 bps additional NIM expansion in 2026 under base assumptions.
Robust Fee Revenue Growth
Fee base increased ~50% year-on-year with payment systems fees as the main driver; bank is #1 in money transfer and both life and non-life insurance fees; mutual fund market share rose by 1.3 percentage points to 11.6%.
Strong Capital and Liquidity Position
Consolidated CET1 ratio of 13.1% and total capital adequacy of 17.5% (without BRSA forbearance); excess capital of TRY 179 billion; external debt of $9.8 billion with $7.1 billion FX liquidity buffer.
Successful Wholesale Funding and ESG Innovation
Two new transactions in 2025 increased subordinated bond issuances to $2.45 billion over two years; issued Turkey’s first Biodiversity and Blue-Themed Bond and secured a diversified syndicated loan (including a new 3-year tranche).
Negative Updates
4Q Tax and One-Off Effects
Fourth-quarter bottom line was negatively impacted by tax-regulation-related effects; management notes the quarter included one-off items that reduced reported profitability (excluding which ROE would be ~30%).
Rising NPL Ratio and Asset-Quality Pressure in Retail
NPL ratio increased modestly to 3.1% (in line with expectations) driven mainly by retail and credit card portfolios, which accounted for ~70% of net NPL flows; credit-card-related delinquency remains a key driver.
Stage-2 Coverage and Provision Dynamics
Stage-2 share stayed flat at ~10% while Stage-2 coverage declined to 9% overall (foreign-currency Stage-2 coverage remains higher at 16%); net provisions increased in 4Q reflecting the absence of earlier exceptional provision reversals.
High Operating Expense Growth
Operating expenses rose 67% in 2025 (above inflation) due to salary promotions and customer-acquisition investments; management expects OpEx growth to exceed average inflation in 2026 and flagged structural investment-driven cost pressure.
Negative Contribution from CPI-Linkers to NIM
Higher CPI used in valuation (32.9%) led to a negative net contribution from CPI-linked instruments to NIM in 4Q (net impact cited as approximately -40 basis points quarter-on-quarter).
Regulatory and Macroprudential Uncertainty
Macroprudential measures, loan growth caps, limits on FX loans, and potential interchange/credit-card regulation pose downside risk to volumes, product pricing and fees; deposit mix constraints (TL ratio windows) have influenced funding dynamics.
Normalization of Provision Reversals
2025 benefited from large-ticket provision reversals that are not expected to repeat; guidance assumes net cost of risk will normalize to 2.0–2.5% in 2026 (consolidated), above historical normalized levels (~1.5–1.7%).
Company Guidance
Management guided a conservative, data‑dependent 2026 operating plan anchored on macro assumptions of year‑end inflation ~25% and a policy rate of ~32% (with GDP penciled at 3.7% for ’25 and 4% for ’26), a current‑account deficit of ~1.5–2% of GDP and a budget deficit near 3.5% of GDP. On the balance sheet they expect TL loan growth of 30–35% and mid‑single‑digit FX loan growth, with total customer deposits >TRY3.0tn (69% of assets, 41% demand deposits) and TL loans at TRY1.7tn (58% of assets); asset quality guidance assumes net cost of risk normalizing to 2.0–2.5% (stage‑2 ≈10% of gross loans with 9% coverage overall and 16% FX coverage), and an NPL ratio around 3.1%. They forecast NIM expansion of ~75bps (noting 100bps policy moves change NIM ~15bps and long‑run mid‑cycle NIM ≈500bps), fee growth of 30–35% (fees +50% YoY in 2025) offsetting OpEx growth (OpEx +67% in 2025; bank‑only ~80–85% of OpEx covered by fees), and target a mid‑single‑digit positive real ROE for 2026 (2025 net income TRY111bn, +21% YoY; ROE 29% or ~30% ex one‑offs; long‑term real ROE target ~8–10% above inflation). Capital and liquidity remain strong (consolidated CET1 13.1%, CAR 17.5%, TRY179bn excess capital; external debt $9.8bn with $3.5bn short‑term and $7.1bn FX liquidity buffer), and guidance assumes no material easing of macro‑prudentials.Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Reported revenue growth and profitability are strong (income statement score 74) with healthy ROE and generally manageable leverage (balance sheet score 67), but cash generation is a major weakness (cash flow score 32) with volatile operating cash flow and negative free cash flow in 2024–2025, reducing confidence in earnings quality and stability.Income Statement
Revenue growth has been strong over the period (notably 2022–2023 and an exceptionally large jump in 2025), and profitability remains solid with 2025 net margin around 11%. However, profitability has been volatile versus prior years (net margins were materially higher in 2022–2024), and several margin lines are inconsistent across periods (e.g., 2024 shows a negative operating margin despite high earnings), which reduces confidence in the trend quality.74
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows good earnings power on equity (return on equity roughly mid-to-high 20s in 2024–2025, and higher in 2022–2023). Leverage appears manageable for a bank with debt-to-equity below 1.0 in 2023–2025, but debt has risen sharply in 2025 and equity is still not meaningfully outpacing the balance-sheet expansion, which adds risk if credit conditions tighten.67
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the weakest area: free cash flow swung from strongly positive in 2021–2023 to deeply negative in 2024 and remained negative in 2025. Operating cash flow is also highly volatile (large outflow in 2024 and only a very small inflow in 2025), and cash flow relative to earnings is weak, indicating that reported profits are not consistently translating into cash.32
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 988.39B | 287.17B | 346.52B | 177.72B | 85.59B |
| Gross Profit | 410.34B | 287.17B | 199.32B | 133.01B | 61.46B |
| EBITDA | 160.63B | 0.00 | 109.31B | 78.23B | 19.35B |
| Net Income | 109.82B | 91.24B | 86.37B | 58.29B | 13.47B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.55T | 3.00T | 2.20T | 1.30T | 850.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.82B | 591.84B | 474.34B | 200.82B | 182.89B |
| Total Debt | 431.79B | 223.97B | 150.11B | 104.47B | 97.20B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.10T | 2.67T | 1.96T | 1.15T | 770.17B |
| Stockholders Equity | 444.07B | 329.79B | 244.70B | 152.64B | 79.98B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -5.40B | -155.25B | 186.17B | 43.63B | 31.02B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.98B | -145.82B | 191.28B | 45.76B | 32.31B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -63.06B | -46.85B | -81.76B | -55.25B | -12.41B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 222.25B | 95.27B | 10.45B | 25.67B | 29.34B |
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Technical Analysis
Negative
3.38
Price Trends
3.46
Negative
3.32
Negative
3.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.11
Positive
37.41
Neutral
18.68
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKGZY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.43, below the 50-day MA of 3.46, and above the 200-day MA of 3.32, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TKGZY.
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $18.57B | 8.44 | 17.70% | 10.29% | -6.79% | 16.13% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $12.62B | 0.93 | 27.96% | 19.08% | 29.35% | -6.44% | |
67 Neutral | $19.24B | 14.56 | 21.25% | 5.56% | -11.64% | -8.75% | |
65 Neutral | $15.62B | 6.51 | 9.31% | 3.71% | -2.90% | 16.10% | |
57 Neutral | $21.26B | 9.97 | 11.15% | 4.98% | 1.13% | -11.93% | |
56 Neutral | $14.58B | 12.58 | 21.37% | 4.29% | 12.43% | 56.30% |
* Financial Sector Average
TKGZY
Turkiye Garanti Bankasi Anonim Sirketi 144A
3.01
-0.89
-22.81%
BCH
Banco De Chile
37.54
10.58
39.25%
BSBR
Banco Santander Brasil
5.72
1.17
25.74%
BSAC
Banco Santander Chile
30.56
8.04
35.70%
CIB
Grupo Cibest
65.83
26.21
66.15%
WF
Woori Finance Holdings Co
64.46
30.36
89.03%
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BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.