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Teekay Corporation (TK)
NYSE:TK
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Teekay
(NYSE:TK)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(8.14% Upside)
Teekay's overall stock score reflects a combination of strong valuation, positive technical indicators, and stable financial performance. The company's low P/E ratio and high dividend yield are significant strengths. While the earnings call was generally positive, geopolitical uncertainties and fleet aging are potential risks. The technical analysis supports a bullish outlook, contributing to the favorable score.
Positive Factors
Fleet Renewal Strategy
Investing in modern vessels enhances operational efficiency and competitiveness, supporting long-term growth and market positioning.
Strong Financial Performance
Robust financial performance indicates effective management and operational efficiency, contributing to sustainable profitability and investor confidence.
Low Leverage
Low leverage provides financial flexibility and reduces risk, allowing the company to navigate market fluctuations and invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Factors
Decline in Revenue Growth
A decline in revenue growth can impact long-term financial stability and limit the company's ability to invest in new opportunities and technologies.
Aging Fleet Concerns
An aging fleet may lead to higher maintenance costs and reduced efficiency, affecting competitiveness and operational reliability over time.
Geopolitical Uncertainties
Geopolitical uncertainties can create trade inefficiencies and volatility, posing risks to operational stability and market demand.
Teekay (TK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$986.56M
Dividend Yield21.81%
Average Volume (3M)520.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)0.69
Revenue Growth-27.22%
EPS Growth-34.27%
CountryUS
Employees2,330
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.40
Shares Outstanding85,269,030
10 Day Avg. Volume579,756
30 Day Avg. Volume520,678
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.68
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.52
P/FCF Ratio1.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.21
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.69
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Teekay Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTeekay Corporation engages in the international crude oil and other marine transportation services worldwide. The company provides a full suite of ship-to-ship transfer services in the oil, gas, and dry bulk industries; lightering and lightering support; and operational and maintenance marine, as well as offshore production services. As of March 1, 2022, it operated a fleet of approximately 55 vessels. The company primarily serves energy and utility companies, major oil traders, large oil consumers and petroleum product producers, government agencies, and various other entities that depend upon marine transportation. Teekay Corporation was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
How the Company Makes MoneyTeekay generates revenue primarily through its marine transportation and offshore services. The company's revenue model is built around long-term contracts with oil and gas companies, which provide stable cash flows. Key revenue streams include time-charter agreements for its tankers and FPSOs, where clients pay for the use of vessels over a specified period. Additionally, Teekay earns income from spot market transactions, where it charters its vessels on a short-term basis. Significant partnerships with major oil and gas firms, along with strategic joint ventures, enhance its market position and contribute to its earnings. Overall, Teekay's diversified fleet and long-term contracts are crucial to its financial stability.
Teekay Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a strongly positive near-term financial and operational position: robust quarterly and annual earnings, meaningful free cash flow generation, a large cash balance with no debt, active fleet renewal and immediate upside from elevated spot rates and high spot-booking levels. However, management acknowledged meaningful medium-term risks and volatility driven by geopolitical events, an elevated order book (supply/delivery timing risk), sanctions-driven trade complexity, and uncertain large-M&A opportunities due to elevated asset prices. On balance, the strengths (profitability, liquidity, low breakeven, operational metrics and proactive fleet renewal) outweigh the flagged risks, which are mainly timing and market-structure uncertainties rather than immediate financial distress.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Annual Earnings
Q4 GAAP net income of $120 million ($3.47/share) and adjusted net income of $97 million ($2.80/share). Full-year GAAP net income of $351 million ($10.15/share) and adjusted net income of $241 million ($6.96/share). Realized vessel sale gains for the year totaled $100 million.
Robust Free Cash Flow and Cash Position
Generated approximately $112 million of free cash flow from operations in Q4 and $309 million for full-year 2025. Ended the quarter with $853 million cash on hand (plus $99 million held in escrow) and no debt, providing significant liquidity and optionality.
Low Free Cash Flow Breakeven and High Operating Leverage
Low free cash flow breakeven of approximately $11,300/day, down from $21,300/day in 2022 (a ~46.9% reduction). Management estimates every $5,000/day increase in spot rates above breakeven produces roughly $55 million of annual free cash flow (about $1.60/share).
Strong Spot Market Exposure and Q1 Bookings
Secured Q1-to-date spot rates of ~$79,800/day for VLCC, ~$56,900/day for Suezmax and ~$51,400/day for Aframax/LR2. Approximately 78% spot days booked for VLCCs and ~65% spot days booked for the midsize fleet. Spot rates were the second-highest for a fourth quarter in 15 years and strengthened into early 2026.
Active Fleet Renewal and Monetization
In 2025 the company acquired 6 vessels for $300 million and sold 14 vessels for $500 million, booking estimated gains of approx. $145 million; in Jan 2026 acquired three 2016-built Aframaxes for $142 million (bareboat-chartered back short-term) and sold or agreed to sell two older Suezmaxes for $73 million and a VLCC for $84.5 million. Expect to recognize about $45 million of gains in Q1 and Q2 2026 from recent sales.
Capital Return and Dividend Policy
Declared the regular fixed dividend of $0.25/share. Returned approximately $69 million of capital to shareholders in 2025 via regular quarterly dividends and a $1 special dividend in May 2025. Management indicated continuation of the approach of announcing specials around the May earnings cadence.
Operational Excellence and Safety
Reported 0 lost time injuries and 99.8% fleet availability for 2025, highlighting strong operational performance and crew safety.
Strategic Flexibility and Investment Capacity
No debt and substantial cash provide the ability to transact quickly; management expects to continue opportunistic, likely "drip-fed" asset purchases rather than large M&A while asset values remain elevated.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility and Geopolitical Risk
Earnings and spot rates have been driven by geopolitical events (sanctions, terminal outages, naval blockades) and seasonal factors, creating volatility. Management highlighted uncertainty around potential military escalation (e.g., in the Middle East) which could produce short-lived rate spikes or broader disruption depending on the severity.
Elevated Order Book and Medium-Term Supply Risk
Tanker order book measured as a percentage of the fleet is at a 10-year high (cited ~18% of the fleet), with deliveries set to increase in 2026 and accelerate in 2027. While many newbuilds may replace an aging fleet, increased deliveries create timing risk that could pressure rates if vessel removals or dark-fleet migration do not materialize as expected.
Sanctions-Driven Trade Complexity
Sanctions have increased complexity and inefficiency in trade patterns: sanctioned barrels at sea have risen by more than 70% over the past 12 months, forcing flows into the compliant fleet and creating near-term demand dislocations but also additional operational complexity and unpredictability.
Material Shifts in Key Import Flows
India's imports of Russian crude reportedly dropped from ~1.6 million barrels/day to around 1.0 million barrels/day as of Jan 2026 (a decline of ~37.5%), reflecting changing sourcing patterns and potential volatility in future tanker demand depending on how refiners re-source volumes.
Venezuela Export Disruptions and Uncertainty
Long-haul Venezuelan shipments to China via the dark fleet fell from ~550,000 barrels/day in 2025 to 0 following the U.S. naval blockade in December (a 100% drop for those flows). Exports were recovering toward ~700,000 barrels/day in February, but further production upside (200k–300k bpd) depends on foreign investment and operational timing—introducing uncertainty.
Reduced Visibility for Large M&A
Management signaled it is less likely to pursue major acquisitions in the current strong market due to elevated asset values, implying a more modest "drip-feeding" buy strategy; this constrains potential rapid fleet scaling despite abundant cash.
Company Guidance
Management guided that Teekay Tankers enters 2026 with a strong balance sheet — $853M cash (ex‑$99M escrow), no debt — and highlighted Q4 GAAP net income of $120M ($3.47/sh) and adjusted net income $97M ($2.80/sh), FY2025 GAAP $351M ($10.15/sh) and adjusted $241M ($6.96/sh), with ~$112M FCF in Q4 and ~$309M FCF for 2025; the company declared the regular $0.25/share dividend and noted potential special dividend timing to be discussed with the Board, expects to recognize ~ $45M of vessel‑sale gains in Q1–Q2 2026 (after recent gross sale proceeds of $73M and $84.5M and $100M realized gains in 2025), secured Q1 spot fixtures to date of ~$79,800/day (VLCC), ~$56,900/day (Suezmax) and ~$51,400/day (Aframax/LR2) with ~78% VLCC and ~65% midsize spot coverage, has a low FCF breakeven of ~ $11,300/day (down from $21,300 in 2022) with each $5,000/day above breakeven generating ~ $55M annual FCF (~$1.60/sh), anticipates Q1 D&A of ~$21.5–22M and a G&A run‑rate near $46M (or slightly lower), will assume full commercial/technical management of three 2016 Aframaxes in Q2–Q3, and reiterated a constructive near‑term market outlook amid projected 2026 oil demand growth of +1.1MMbpd, non‑OPEC+ supply +1.3MMbpd, China strategic stockpiling near +~1MMbpd and an orderbook at a ~10‑year high with deliveries ramping in 2026–27.Teekay Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Teekay's financial performance is stable with strong profitability and efficient operations. Despite challenges in revenue growth and cash flow expansion, the company maintains low leverage and solid margins. Continued focus on revenue growth and cash flow management will be crucial for sustaining financial health.Income Statement
Teekay's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue by 8.58%, reflecting challenges in maintaining growth. However, the company maintains healthy margins with a gross profit margin of 29.20% and a net profit margin of 14.28%. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 26.05% and 34.14%, respectively, indicating efficient operations. Despite the revenue decline, profitability remains robust.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a solid equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.02, showcasing low leverage. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 14.53%, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is not provided, limiting a full assessment of asset financing. Overall, the balance sheet reflects financial stability with manageable debt levels.65
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 26.30% in the TTM period, suggesting potential cash flow challenges. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is not available, limiting insights into cash flow efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 79.89%, indicating good cash conversion. Despite the decline in growth, cash flow remains relatively strong.68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 992.52M | 1.22B | 1.46B | 1.19B | 682.51M | 1.82B |
| Gross Profit | 279.15M | 393.86M | 580.63M | 293.03M | -49.73M | 559.82M |
| EBITDA | 308.75M | 503.15M | 655.14M | 348.67M | -107.93M | 201.71M |
| Net Income | 78.90M | 133.77M | 150.64M | 78.41M | 7.81M | -82.93M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.25B | 2.15B | 2.20B | 2.16B | 6.53B | 6.95B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 931.37M | 717.77M | 652.68M | 519.86M | 120.99M | 129.60M |
| Total Debt | 53.02M | 65.55M | 227.20M | 610.16M | 1.02B | 997.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 299.58M | 217.95M | 396.29M | 795.24M | 4.10B | 4.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 656.66M | 709.76M | 732.28M | 623.46M | 515.05M | 481.41M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 240.56M | 391.84M | 619.62M | 183.72M | 54.54M | 957.51M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 306.30M | 467.19M | 629.82M | 199.15M | 75.99M | 984.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 95.21M | 157.50M | 54.66M | 308.98M | 7.17M | 63.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -267.09M | -416.45M | -520.41M | -456.95M | -223.53M | -1.10B |
Teekay Technical Analysis
Positive
9.71
Price Trends
9.77
Positive
9.45
Positive
8.58
Positive
Market Momentum
0.50
Negative
76.35
Negative
97.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.45, below the 50-day MA of 9.77, and above the 200-day MA of 8.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.35 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 97.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TK.
Teekay Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $986.56M | 8.30 | ― | 21.81% | -27.22% | -34.27% | |
79 Outperform | $1.27B | 12.90 | 8.57% | 1.27% | 2.46% | 33.89% | |
73 Outperform | $880.43M | 9.00 | 6.76% | 4.95% | -8.52% | -42.05% | |
68 Neutral | $2.47B | 7.95 | 17.02% | 3.72% | -20.11% | -26.44% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $1.43B | 19.46 | 9.81% | 12.31% | -3.20% | 6.76% |
* Energy Sector Average
TK
Teekay
12.18
6.30
107.07%
TNK
Teekay Tankers
73.89
35.30
91.47%
TEN
Tsakos Energy Navigation
30.35
14.38
89.98%
NVGS
Navigator Holdings
19.79
3.99
25.29%
MARPS
Marine Petroleum
4.91
1.22
33.06%
FLNG
FLEX LNG
27.06
6.07
28.90%
Teekay Corporate Events
Teekay Corporation Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results and Fleet Renewal Progress
Oct 29, 2025
On October 29, 2025, Teekay Corporation Ltd. reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, highlighting a net income of $29.6 million, or $0.34 per share, under U.S. GAAP. The company completed significant fleet renewal activities, including acquiring a Suezmax tanker and the remaining interest in the Hong Kong Spirit VLCC tanker. Additionally, Teekay Tankers completed four out of five planned vessel sales, with total expected proceeds of $158.5 million. A regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per share was declared, payable in November 2025. These developments reflect Teekay’s strategic focus on fleet optimization and shareholder returns, potentially enhancing its market position and financial stability.
The most recent analyst rating on (TK) stock is a Buy with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Teekay stock, see the TK Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.