Teekay (TK) AI Stock Analysis

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Teekay

(NYSE:TK)

Rating:80Outperform

Price Target:

$10.00

▲(10.62%Upside)

The overall stock score of 80.25 reflects Teekay's robust financial performance and strategic improvements, notably in financial management and asset sales. The technical indicators show strong momentum, though caution is advised due to overbought signals. Valuation metrics suggest an appealing investment opportunity, further supported by optimistic earnings call insights.

Teekay (TK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$772.10M

Dividend Yield22.12%

Average Volume (3M)915.55K

Price to Earnings (P/E)6.3

Beta (1Y)0.58

Revenue Growth-23.02%

EPS Growth-38.08%

CountryUS

Employees2,330

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength74

IndustryOil & Gas Midstream

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.17

Shares Outstanding83,560,720

10 Day Avg. Volume931,825

30 Day Avg. Volume915,554

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.01

Price to Book (P/B)0.74

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio2.52

Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.52

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.95

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.78

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.47

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

Teekay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTeekay Corporation engages in the international crude oil and other marine transportation services worldwide. The company provides a full suite of ship-to-ship transfer services in the oil, gas, and dry bulk industries; lightering and lightering support; and operational and maintenance marine, as well as offshore production services. As of March 1, 2022, it operated a fleet of approximately 55 vessels. The company primarily serves energy and utility companies, major oil traders, large oil consumers and petroleum product producers, government agencies, and various other entities that depend upon marine transportation. Teekay Corporation was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

How the Company Makes MoneyTeekay Corporation generates revenue primarily through long-term charter agreements and spot market voyages in the oil and gas shipping sector. The company earns money by leasing its fleet of vessels to major oil and energy companies, who require reliable transportation services for their crude oil and LNG products. Key revenue streams include time-charter contracts, where customers pay a fixed rate for vessel use over a specified period, and spot market contracts, where earnings are based on voyage-specific rates. Additionally, Teekay benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other maritime and energy companies, enhancing its operational capabilities and expanding its market reach.

Teekay Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 14.72%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a strong financial performance with high net income and cash flow, successful asset sales, and improvements in the spot market. However, geopolitical uncertainties and aging fleet concerns pose potential challenges. The overall sentiment leans towards optimism despite these challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Teekay Tankers reported GAAP net income of $76 million ($2.20 per share) and adjusted net income of $42 million ($1.21 per share) in the first quarter, with approximately $65 million in free cash flow from operations.

Successful Asset Sales

Teekay Tankers sold six vessels for total gross proceeds of approximately $183 million, resulting in an expected accounting gain of approximately $53 million.

Spot Market Improvement

The spot tanker market has strengthened with secured rates of $40,400 per day for Suezmax and $36,800 per day for Aframax LR2 fleets, with 45% of the spot base booked.

Dividend Payout

Declared a regular quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share and a special dividend of $1 per share, amounting to a total dividend payout of $1.25 per share.

Positive Market Dynamics

Rising oil production and shifting trade patterns have increased midsized tanker ton mile demand, with significant increases in exports and long-haul voyages.

Negative Updates

Geopolitical Uncertainties

Potential impacts from US tariffs, sanctions on Russian and Iranian shipping, and geopolitical tensions could affect tanker market dynamics unfavorably.

Aging Fleet Concerns

The tanker fleet continues to age, with the average age reaching 13.9 years, the highest since 2001, presenting challenges in fleet renewal and market balance.

Company Guidance

During the Teekay Corporation's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, CEO Kenneth Hvid provided detailed guidance on the company's financial performance and strategic direction. Teekay Tankers reported a GAAP net income of $76 million ($2.20 per share) and an adjusted net income of $42 million ($1.21 per share). The company generated approximately $65 million in free cash flow and declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, alongside a special dividend of $1 per share. Asset sales have been significant, with six vessels sold for gross proceeds of $183 million, resulting in an expected accounting gain of $53 million. The company is executing a fleet renewal strategy, selling older vessels and acquiring modern tonnage, with a focus on maintaining operational leverage in a strong tanker market. Teekay Tankers has secured higher spot rates for the second quarter, booking rates of $40,400 per day for Suezmax and $36,800 per day for Aframax LR2 fleets. The company is also eyeing future fleet renewals, with considerations for potential asset acquisitions as market conditions evolve. Despite market uncertainties, such as geopolitical tensions and oil market fluctuations, the company expects continued cash flow generation and strategic repositioning opportunities in the near to medium term.

Teekay Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Teekay demonstrates strong financial management with improved profitability margins and reduced leverage. However, revenue volatility and declining cash flows present potential challenges. The company's strategic debt reduction significantly enhances its financial stability, while strong cost control measures bolster profitability.

Income Statement

Positive

Teekay's income statement reflects a volatile revenue trajectory with a noticeable decline from 2023 to 2024, where revenue fell from $1.46 billion to $1.22 billion. Despite the revenue drop, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 32.3% in 2024, up from 29.5% in 2023, signaling improved cost efficiency. However, net profit margin decreased slightly to 10.96% in 2024 from 10.28% in 2023, indicating challenges in managing operating expenses. The company shows resilience with positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, but revenue volatility poses a risk.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a healthy reduction in total debt from $227 million in 2023 to $65.6 million in 2024, significantly lowering the debt-to-equity ratio to 0.09, enhancing financial stability. The equity ratio remains robust at 32.9% in 2024, indicating a stable capital structure. However, the decrease in stockholders' equity from $732 million in 2023 to $710 million in 2024 suggests potential challenges in generating returns, as reflected in the reduced ROE of 18.84% in 2024 from 20.57% in 2023.

Cash Flow

Positive

Teekay's cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow generation of $391.8 million in 2024, despite a reduction from $623 million in 2023. The operating cash flow remains robust at $467 million in 2024, albeit down from $633 million in 2023. The company's ability to convert net income into cash is sound, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.49 in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio also indicates strong cash generation capabilities. Despite these strengths, declining cash flows year-over-year could impact future liquidity.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.22B	1.46B	1.19B	682.51M	1.82B
	Gross Profit
393.86M	580.63M	293.03M	-49.73M	559.82M
	EBIT
365.25M	531.73M	245.77M	-185.35M	593.15M
	EBITDA
503.15M	655.14M	348.67M	-107.93M	201.71M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
133.77M	150.64M	209.64M	-277.46M	90.98M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
717.77M	652.68M	519.86M	108.98M	348.79M
	Total Assets
2.15B	2.20B	2.16B	6.53B	6.95B
	Total Debt
65.55M	227.20M	597.39M	1.01B	3.82B
	Net Debt
-619.78M	-252.88M	287.53M	896.24M	3.47B
	Total Liabilities
217.95M	396.29M	795.24M	4.10B	4.47B
	Stockholders Equity
709.76M	732.28M	623.46M	515.05M	481.41M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
391.84M	623.26M	183.72M	54.54M	957.51M
	Operating Cash Flow
467.19M	633.46M	199.15M	75.99M	984.02M
	Investing Cash Flow
157.50M	54.66M	308.98M	7.17M	63.06M
	Financing Cash Flow
-416.45M	-524.05M	-456.95M	-223.53M	-1.10B

Teekay Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price9.04

Price Trends

50DMA

7.83

Positive

100DMA

7.28

Positive

200DMA

7.20

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.33

Negative

RSI

64.42

Neutral

STOCH

85.88

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.60, above the 50-day MA of 7.83, and above the 200-day MA of 7.20, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.33 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TK.

Teekay Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (58)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TK	80 Outperform	$772.10M	6.33	18.55%	22.12%	-23.02%	-38.08%
DLNG	79 Outperform	$132.61M	2.66	10.57%	5.40%	-2.37%	32.03%
NVGS	78 Outperform	$1.01B	11.46	7.38%	1.37%	6.38%	9.47%
TEN	77 Outperform	$639.91M	4.73	9.22%	8.69%	-3.67%	-8.90%
TNK	75 Outperform	$1.61B	5.00	18.57%	10.71%	-21.27%	-34.25%
FLNG	72 Outperform	$1.30B	12.77	12.69%	12.29%	-3.95%	-2.25%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.58B	3.29	-4.46%	10.00%	0.84%	-49.61%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

Teekay

9.04

1.23

15.75%

TNK

Teekay Tankers

45.42

-21.07

-31.69%

TEN

Tsakos Energy Navigation

20.72

-6.58

-24.10%

NVGS

Navigator Holdings

14.62

-1.90

-11.50%

DLNG

Dynagas LNG Partners

3.59

-0.31

-7.95%

FLNG

FLEX LNG

24.00

-0.67

-2.72%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.