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Teekay Corporation (TK)
NYSE:TK
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Teekay (TK) AI Stock Analysis

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TK

Teekay

(NYSE:TK)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$8.00
â–²(6.10% Upside)
Teekay's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings performance and an attractive valuation, bolstered by effective financial management. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and potential challenges from revenue volatility and geopolitical uncertainties temper the outlook.

Teekay (TK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Teekay Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTeekay Corporation engages in the international crude oil and other marine transportation services worldwide. The company provides a full suite of ship-to-ship transfer services in the oil, gas, and dry bulk industries; lightering and lightering support; and operational and maintenance marine, as well as offshore production services. As of March 1, 2022, it operated a fleet of approximately 55 vessels. The company primarily serves energy and utility companies, major oil traders, large oil consumers and petroleum product producers, government agencies, and various other entities that depend upon marine transportation. Teekay Corporation was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
How the Company Makes MoneyTeekay Corporation makes money through its diversified operations in the marine energy sector. Its primary revenue streams come from long-term charter contracts for its fleet of LNG carriers, which provide steady and predictable income. Additionally, Teekay generates revenue from its oil tanker operations, which are more exposed to market spot rates, offering the potential for higher earnings during favorable market conditions. The company also benefits from its offshore production services, which include floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) units that support oil and gas extraction activities. Furthermore, Teekay's strategic partnerships and joint ventures enhance its operational capabilities and expand its market reach, contributing to its overall financial performance.

Teekay Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.69%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance and successful execution of the fleet renewal strategy. The company is well-positioned to benefit from expected increases in global oil production, which could support tanker rates. However, seasonal rate softening and geopolitical uncertainties present challenges to the market outlook.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
Teekay Tankers reported a GAAP net income of $62.6 million or $1.81 per share and adjusted net income of $48.7 million or $1.41 per share for the second quarter. The company generated approximately $62.8 million in free cash flow from operations, with a cash and short-term investment position of $712 million and no debt.
Fleet Renewal Strategy
Teekay Tankers is actively executing on its fleet renewal strategy, including the sale of 11 vessels for total gross proceeds of $340 million and estimated book gains of approximately $100 million. The company is also acquiring newer vessels, such as a modern Suezmax and the remaining 50% interest in the Hong Kong Spirit VLCC.
Positive Market Outlook
Global oil production is expected to increase sharply due to the unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts and higher production from South America, which could support tanker rates. The company anticipates increased tanker ton-mile demand and potential tailwinds towards the end of the year.
Operational Leverage and Financial Flexibility
With no debt and a low free cash flow breakeven of $13,000 per day, Teekay Tankers generated $128 million in free cash flow in the first half of the year. The company is well-positioned to continue generating free cash flows and investing in fleet renewal.
Negative Updates
Seasonal Rate Softening
Spot tanker rates softened during the latter part of the second quarter due to normal seasonal trends, despite an earlier improvement. The market exhibited volatility due to geopolitical tensions, although there was no material disruption to regional oil production.
Geopolitical Uncertainties
The tanker market outlook is complicated by geopolitical factors, including potential changes in OPEC+ policies, EU price caps on Russian crude, and U.S. sanctions on vessels transporting Iranian crude oil, which could influence spot rates.
Company Guidance
During the Teekay Group's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Results Conference Call, the company provided guidance highlighting several key metrics. Teekay Tankers reported a GAAP net income of $62.6 million or $1.81 per share and an adjusted net income of $48.7 million or $1.41 per share. The company generated approximately $62.8 million in free cash flow from operations, with a cash and short-term investment position of $712 million and no debt at the end of the quarter. Teekay Tankers has been actively executing its fleet renewal strategy, selling 11 vessels for total gross proceeds of $340 million and estimated book gains of approximately $100 million. It has also acquired a modern Suezmax and agreed to purchase the remaining 50% interest in the Hong Kong Spirit VLCC. Looking ahead, Teekay has secured spot rates of $31,400 per day for Suezmax and $28,200 per day for Aframax LR2, with 43% of its spot base booked. The company sees potential tailwinds in the tanker market later in the year due to increased global oil production and anticipates continued strong cash flow generation with a low free cash flow break-even of $13,000 per day. Additionally, Teekay declared a regular quarterly fixed dividend of $0.25 per share.

Teekay Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Teekay demonstrates strong financial management with improved profitability margins and reduced leverage. However, revenue volatility and declining cash flows present potential challenges. The company's strategic debt reduction significantly enhances its financial stability, while strong cost control measures bolster profitability.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Teekay's income statement reflects a volatile revenue trajectory with a noticeable decline from 2023 to 2024, where revenue fell from $1.46 billion to $1.22 billion. Despite the revenue drop, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 32.3% in 2024, up from 29.5% in 2023, signaling improved cost efficiency. However, net profit margin decreased slightly to 10.96% in 2024 from 10.28% in 2023, indicating challenges in managing operating expenses. The company shows resilience with positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, but revenue volatility poses a risk.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet shows a healthy reduction in total debt from $227 million in 2023 to $65.6 million in 2024, significantly lowering the debt-to-equity ratio to 0.09, enhancing financial stability. The equity ratio remains robust at 32.9% in 2024, indicating a stable capital structure. However, the decrease in stockholders' equity from $732 million in 2023 to $710 million in 2024 suggests potential challenges in generating returns, as reflected in the reduced ROE of 18.84% in 2024 from 20.57% in 2023.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
Teekay's cash flow statement shows a strong free cash flow generation of $391.8 million in 2024, despite a reduction from $623 million in 2023. The operating cash flow remains robust at $467 million in 2024, albeit down from $633 million in 2023. The company's ability to convert net income into cash is sound, with an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.49 in 2024. The free cash flow to net income ratio also indicates strong cash generation capabilities. Despite these strengths, declining cash flows year-over-year could impact future liquidity.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.22B1.46B1.19B682.51M1.82B
Gross Profit393.86M580.63M293.03M-49.73M559.82M
EBITDA503.15M655.14M348.67M-107.93M201.71M
Net Income133.77M150.64M209.64M-277.46M90.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.15B2.20B2.16B6.53B6.95B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments717.77M652.68M519.86M108.98M348.79M
Total Debt65.55M227.20M597.39M1.01B3.82B
Total Liabilities217.95M396.29M795.24M4.10B4.47B
Stockholders Equity709.76M732.28M623.46M515.05M481.41M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow391.84M623.26M183.72M54.54M957.51M
Operating Cash Flow467.19M633.46M199.15M75.99M984.02M
Investing Cash Flow157.50M54.66M308.98M7.17M63.06M
Financing Cash Flow-416.45M-524.05M-456.95M-223.53M-1.10B

Teekay Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price7.54
Price Trends
50DMA
7.58
Negative
100DMA
6.84
Positive
200DMA
6.45
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.04
Positive
RSI
41.01
Neutral
STOCH
29.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.62, below the 50-day MA of 7.58, and above the 200-day MA of 6.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TK.

Teekay Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$1.07B12.177.38%1.29%6.38%9.47%
77
Outperform
$585.98M4.339.22%7.71%-3.67%-8.90%
76
Outperform
$1.47B5.2915.78%4.69%-21.71%-37.58%
75
Outperform
$604.14M5.0618.55%27.66%-26.05%-44.48%
72
Outperform
$1.33B13.0812.69%12.00%-3.95%-2.25%
71
Outperform
$128.22M2.5710.57%4.19%-2.37%32.03%
67
Neutral
$15.01B9.777.81%5.64%4.51%-61.80%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TK
Teekay
7.54
1.88
33.22%
TNK
Teekay Tankers
45.14
-9.02
-16.65%
TEN
Tsakos Energy Navigation
20.05
-2.13
-9.60%
NVGS
Navigator Holdings
15.70
0.43
2.82%
DLNG
Dynagas LNG Partners
3.54
-0.10
-2.75%
FLNG
FLEX LNG
25.36
2.97
13.26%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025