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Trueblue Inc (TBI)
NYSE:TBI
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Trueblue
(NYSE:TBI)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▼(-15.66% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
The score is held down primarily by weak recent financial performance (losses and negative cash flow) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). A moderately constructive earnings outlook and cost actions provide some offset, but valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
High-growth verticals (Energy & Renewables)
TrueBlue’s rapid expansion into energy and renewable staffing creates durable demand tailwinds as those sectors scale projects and rely on contingent labor. Higher-growth vertical mix diversifies revenue, builds long-term client relationships and supports sustained utilization even if other end markets slow.
Successful inorganic growth and PeopleSolutions scale
The HSB acquisition materially increased PeopleSolutions scale and geographic reach, adding recurring contractual business and accelerating revenue diversification. M&A-driven expansion that meaningfully shifts revenue mix tends to be durable, enabling cross-sell, higher utilization of account teams and faster breakeven on fixed costs.
Cost discipline, tech investment and partnership wins
Sustained SG&A cuts alongside targeted investments in AI and a material partnership show management is improving operating leverage and sales productivity. Structural cost efficiency plus proprietary matching tech and contract wins bolster margin expansion potential as demand normalizes over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow
Two consecutive years of negative operating and free cash flow weaken the company’s ability to fund operations internally, forcing reliance on borrowing or asset sales. Persistent FCF weakness constrains reinvestment in sales/technology and increases sensitivity to economic downturns or financing cost shocks.
Rising leverage and weakened balance-sheet buffers
An increasing debt burden with reduced equity cushions and negative ROE reduces financial flexibility and raises covenant and refinancing risk. In a staffing business with cyclical cash flow, higher leverage makes the firm more vulnerable to demand shocks and limits opportunistic investments or tuck-ins.
Gross margin compression and reserve normalization
Non-repeatable reserve benefits and mix shifts into lower-margin renewables plus pass-through costs compressed gross margins materially. Structural pressure on pay/bill spreads and recurring reserve volatility can limit sustainable profitability and extend the time needed to restore historical margins.
Trueblue (TBI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$124.76M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)221.09K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth-5.37%
EPS Growth75.32%
CountryUS
Employees4,200
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryStaffing & Employment Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.25
Shares Outstanding30,062,641
10 Day Avg. Volume274,439
30 Day Avg. Volume221,088
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.51
Price to Sales (P/S)0.09
P/FCF Ratio-1.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.17
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.75
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.00K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.50Price Target Upside32.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.70B
Trueblue Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionTrueBlue, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides specialized workforce solutions in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. It operates through three segments: PeopleReady, PeopleManagement, and PeopleScout. The PeopleReady segment offers contingent staffing solutions for blue-collar, on-demand, and skilled labor in construction, manufacturing and logistics, warehousing and distribution, waste and recycling, energy, retail, hospitality, and general labor industries. The PeopleManagement segment provides contingent labor and outsourced industrial workforce solutions. This segment also offers on-site management and recruitment for the contingent industrial workforce of manufacturing, warehouse, and distribution facilities; and recruitment and management of contingent and dedicated commercial drivers to the transportation and distribution industries under the Staff Management, SIMOS Insourcing Solutions, and Centerline Drivers brands. The PeopleScout segment offers permanent employee recruitment process outsourcing services; and manages clients' contingent labor programs comprising vendor selection, performance management, compliance monitoring, and risk management. The company was formerly known as Labor Ready, Inc. and changed its name to TrueBlue, Inc. in December 2007. TrueBlue, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Tacoma, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyTrueBlue generates revenue primarily through its staffing and workforce solutions services. The company earns money by charging clients a fee for placing temporary or permanent workers in various roles across different industries. Key revenue streams include the markup on hourly wages paid to temporary workers, direct hire fees for permanent placements, and service fees for managed workforce solutions. Additionally, TrueBlue has formed strategic partnerships with various businesses and organizations to enhance its service offerings and extend its market reach, contributing to its overall earnings.
Trueblue Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Shows profit after operating costs for each business unit, highlighting which parts of the company actually generate earnings versus those that consume resources. Helps investors spot high-margin segments, margin trends over time, and whether growth is translating into true profitability or being offset by rising costs.
Shows profit after operating costs for each business unit, highlighting which parts of the company actually generate earnings versus those that consume resources. Helps investors spot high-margin segments, margin trends over time, and whether growth is translating into true profitability or being offset by rising costs.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTrueblue Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a balanced but constructive picture: revenue and organic growth trends (total revenue +8%, organic +5%), strong momentum in higher-growth verticals (notably energy and renewables), successful integration and contribution from HSB, meaningful SG&A reductions (−11%) and strategic investments in sales and AI-driven technology were highlighted as drivers of future profitable growth. Material near-term margin pressure arose from the non-repeat favorable workers' compensation reserve development and mix shift into renewables, which drove gross margin down ~510 basis points and produced a reported net loss (including an $18M non-cash impairment). Management reinforced a path to expanded margins as demand normalizes and reiterated 2026 revenue guidance of +3% to +9%. Overall, the execution on growth initiatives and cost discipline, coupled with a constructive outlook, outweigh the near-term margin headwinds and one-time items.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Total revenue of $418,000,000, up 8% year-over-year; organic revenue increased 5% with the acquired HSB business contributing approximately 3 percentage points of that growth. Revenue came in near the high end of outlook.
Cost Discipline and Margin Leverage
SG&A reduced by 11% while revenue grew 8% in the quarter, demonstrating improved operating leverage and disciplined cost management that supports margin expansion as demand rebounds.
Energy / Renewables Surge
Energy sector revenue grew ~60% year-over-year and energy reached ~15% of the company portfolio (up from 10% in 2024). PeopleReady’s renewable energy work more than doubled for the second consecutive quarter; renewables represent roughly one-third of PeopleReady activity. Management highlighted multimillion-dollar project wins and a healthy pipeline.
PeopleSolutions and HSB Contribution
PeopleSolutions revenue grew 42% year-over-year, driven by the HSB acquisition. HSB delivered about $40,000,000 of inorganic growth in Q4 and has expanded into three new states since joining TrueBlue; the acquisition contributed ~3 percentage points to organic growth.
Segment-Level Momentum
PeopleReady grew 11% year-over-year with skilled businesses delivering double-digit growth for the third consecutive quarter. Commercial driver business continued to outperform (noted as eight consecutive quarters of growth and multi-quarter/year double-digit performance). PeopleManagement launched 13 new sites in the quarter and PeopleManagement segment profit margin improved by 50 basis points; PeopleSolutions margin improved by 180 basis points.
Strategic Partnerships and Technology
Launched an enterprise strategic partnership with a leading group purchasing organization driving approximately $15,000,000 of annualized new business wins. Advanced proprietary technology (AI-enabled job matching, predictive analytics, AI bill-rate feature) to drive efficiency, matching, and targeted selling.
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Actions
Ended the quarter with $25,000,000 cash, $66,000,000 debt and $68,000,000 borrowing availability for total liquidity of $92,000,000. Debt reduced by $2,000,000 in the quarter and credit facility amended to an asset-backed structure increasing borrowing availability.
Forward Guidance and Margin Opportunity
2026 revenue guidance of +3% to +9% year-over-year (includes ~1 percentage point inorganic from HSB). Management reiterated the potential for above-historical incremental margins (historically 15-20%) as demand normalizes given the optimized fixed cost base.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression
Reported gross margin of 21.5% vs 26.6% a year ago, a decline of ~510 basis points. Management attributed the decline primarily to the lack of repeat favorable prior-year workers’ compensation reserve adjustments and to revenue mix (outsized growth in lower-margin renewable energy work with pass-through travel costs).
Reported Net Loss and Impairment
Reported net loss of $32,000,000 for the quarter, which included a non-cash long-lived asset impairment charge of $18,000,000 related to the Chicago support office sublease. Management cited the impairment unlocks over $30,000,000 of cash flow over the remaining lease term. Adjusted net loss was $8,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA was $2,000,000 for the quarter.
Workers' Compensation Reserve Normalization
Prior-year outsized favorability in workers’ compensation reserve development did not repeat, creating an approximate 290 basis point headwind to Q4 margins; management expects a similar headwind into 2026 as the reserve environment normalizes, resulting in short-term margin compression.
Pricing Pressure and Margin Impact
Pay rates increased ~3.8% while bill rates rose ~2.5% in the quarter, creating roughly a 40 basis point margin pressure. Management noted pricing pressure is role/skill-specific and emphasized disciplined pricing to avoid pricing themselves out of the market.
Underperformance in PeopleManagement Revenue
PeopleManagement revenue declined 2% year-over-year driven by lower on-site volumes (primarily retail). Although margins improved through cost actions, near-term revenue pressure persists in that vertical.
Modest Cash on Hand and Near-Term Profitability
Cash balance of $25,000,000 is modest relative to $66,000,000 of debt, and adjusted EBITDA was only $2,000,000 for the quarter, indicating limited near-term free cash generation despite liquidity of $92,000,000. U.S. tax benefit limited by a valuation allowance on U.S. deferred tax assets (no material U.S. tax benefit recognized).
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenue growth of 3%–9% year‑over‑year (including ~1 percentage point of inorganic growth from HSB), warned of a lower margin in Q1 due to seasonality and normalization of prior‑year workers’ compensation reserve favorability (Q4 workers’ comp development reduced gross margin by ~290 bps and a similar headwind is expected in 2026), and said their lean cost structure and actions position the company to expand EBITDA margins as demand rebounds (historical incremental margins ~15%–20%, now expected to be a bit north of that range). For context, Q4 results included total revenue of $418M (organic +5%), gross margin 21.5%, adjusted EBITDA $2M, adjusted net loss $8M, GAAP net loss $32M (including an $18M impairment), SG&A down 11% while revenue grew 8%, cash $25M, debt $66M, $68M borrowing availability and $92M total liquidity, a $2M debt reduction in the quarter, and a Chicago sublease impairment that unlocks >$30M of cash flow over the next ten years (with ~$1M SG&A savings in 2026, ~$3M in 2027 and $3M–$5M thereafter).Trueblue Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Fundamentals are pressured by a downcycle: declining revenue, sustained operating/net losses, and negative operating and free cash flow in the most recent periods. The balance sheet is not highly levered but leverage is rising and ROE has been negative; a noted revenue data inconsistency also limits confidence in margin interpretation.Income Statement
Profitability has deteriorated sharply after a profitable 2021–2022 period. Revenue declined in 2023 and 2024, and the business moved deeper into losses (net loss expanded from 2023 to 2024), with operating profit turning negative as well. The latest annual period shows revenue reported at 0 alongside a sizable gross profit, which creates a data inconsistency and limits margin-based interpretation; however, losses (negative operating earnings and net income) clearly indicate weak recent operating performance.22
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage remains moderate overall, with debt still well below equity historically, though debt-to-equity rose meaningfully in the most recent annual period versus 2023–2024, indicating a worsening leverage trend. Equity has also stepped down from 2022–2023 levels, and returns on equity have been negative in the last several years, reflecting that the balance sheet is supporting a business currently generating losses. Still, the company retains a meaningful equity base relative to total assets, providing some buffer.48
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation has weakened materially: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned negative in 2024 and remained negative in the latest annual period, increasing reliance on liquidity and/or financing to fund operations. Earlier years (notably 2020 and 2022) showed strong positive operating and free cash flow, demonstrating the model can generate cash in better conditions, but the recent two-year trend is adverse. Free cash flow was also volatile over the period, swinging from strong positives to deep negatives.30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.62B | 1.57B | 1.91B | 2.25B | 2.17B |
| Gross Profit | 343.02M | 406.39M | 506.06M | 602.14M | 560.32M |
| EBITDA | 2.05M | -3.54M | 11.46M | 115.61M | 96.00M |
| Net Income | -47.96M | -125.75M | -14.17M | 62.27M | 61.63M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 638.67M | 675.38M | 899.38M | 1.02B | 1.03B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 24.51M | 22.54M | 61.88M | 72.05M | 49.90M |
| Total Debt | 170.60M | 66.53M | 61.34M | 62.56M | 67.02M |
| Total Liabilities | 364.11M | 360.02M | 441.51M | 523.09M | 540.16M |
| Stockholders Equity | 274.56M | 315.36M | 457.87M | 496.31M | 493.07M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -73.72M | -41.21M | 3.48M | 89.88M | -14.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -58.04M | -17.06M | 34.75M | 120.50M | 20.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -16.06M | -2.45M | -32.32M | -20.95M | -16.22M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 57.14M | -17.09M | -37.58M | -64.69M | -19.13M |
Trueblue Technical Analysis
Negative
4.15
Price Trends
4.76
Negative
4.96
Negative
5.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.30
Positive
42.75
Neutral
53.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TBI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.57, below the 50-day MA of 4.76, and below the 200-day MA of 5.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TBI.
Trueblue Risk Analysis
Trueblue disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trueblue reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trueblue Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $167.93M | 23.47 | 11.08% | 2.55% | -12.65% | 368.36% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | $68.43M | -8.06 | -14.43% | 41.67% | -36.79% | -507.05% | |
59 Neutral | $122.77M | -9.45 | -12.89% | ― | -9.13% | -1032.39% | |
56 Neutral | $339.12M | -1.29 | -23.06% | 3.53% | 0.46% | -477.90% | |
56 Neutral | $72.52M | 124.50 | -0.08% | ― | 1.24% | 97.14% | |
44 Neutral | $124.76M | -2.58 | -8.91% | ― | -5.37% | 75.32% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TBI
Trueblue
4.15
-1.48
-26.29%
DHX
DHI Group
2.73
0.38
16.17%
KELYA
Kelly Services
9.37
-3.14
-25.11%
MHH
Mastech Holdings
6.20
-4.11
-39.86%
BGSF
BGSF
6.11
2.73
80.77%
HQI
HireQuest
11.91
-2.42
-16.86%
Trueblue Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
TrueBlue Reports Higher Revenue Amid Ongoing Losses and Strategy
Negative
Feb 18, 2026
On Feb. 18, 2025, TrueBlue reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $418 million, up 8% year over year, including $14 million from its January 2025 HSP acquisition, but the net loss widened to $32 million from $12 million, driven in part by an $18 million non-cash impairment tied to a Chicago support center sublease. SG&A fell 11% to $95 million, adjusted EBITDA slid to $2 million from $9 million, and quarter-end liquidity stood at $92 million with reduced debt, while full-year 2025 revenue rose 3% to $1.6 billion and the annual net loss per diluted share narrowed to $1.61 from $4.17, as management emphasized disciplined execution of its margin-improvement and growth strategy amid stabilizing demand trends.
The most recent analyst rating on (TBI) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trueblue stock, see the TBI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
TrueBlue Revises Credit Facility Toward Asset-Based Structure
Neutral
Feb 3, 2026
On January 30, 2026, TrueBlue, Inc. amended its existing syndicated credit agreement, converting it from a cash-flow based revolving facility to an asset-based lending structure that ties borrowing capacity to a defined borrowing base of eligible accounts and unbilled receivables, subject to availability reserves and evolving covenant triggers tied to excess availability and fixed charge coverage. The Second Amendment reduces the company’s revolving line of credit commitment from $255 million to $175 million, while preserving an option to upsize by $150 million with lender approval and leaving pricing, sub-limits, collateral security, and maturity terms unchanged, signaling a shift toward collateral-focused financing that may influence TrueBlue’s liquidity management and covenant profile without materially altering its cost of capital.
The most recent analyst rating on (TBI) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trueblue stock, see the TBI Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
TrueBlue Appoints Brian Capone as Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, TrueBlue, Inc. appointed Brian Capone as Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, succeeding Carl Schweihs in the principal accounting role while Schweihs remains Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Capone brings extensive experience from prior senior accounting and controller positions at Avaya, embecta Corp., Cantel Medical, Stryker, and Quest Diagnostics, and his employment terms include a $315,000 base salary, performance-based equity and cash bonus opportunities starting in 2027, and a one-time cash award vesting over four years, underscoring TrueBlue’s emphasis on strengthening its financial leadership and governance without any disclosed conflicts of interest or related-party arrangements.
The most recent analyst rating on (TBI) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trueblue stock, see the TBI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TrueBlue Defends Strategy Amid EHS Director Nomination Challenge
Neutral
Jan 9, 2026
On January 8, 2025, TrueBlue issued a statement responding to director nominations from EHS Management, asserting that its existing strategic plan is improving financial results and positioning the company for sustainable, profitable growth in the staffing market. The company highlighted recent board refresh efforts, including the appointments of William Greenblatt and William Seward and the planned retirement of two current directors by or before the 2026 annual meeting, a process it said was informed by extensive shareholder engagement and endorsed by its largest shareholder. TrueBlue emphasized that its current board brings deep industry, operational, and financial expertise aligned with its technology-led workforce strategy, criticized EHS’s planned proxy contest as costly and disruptive, and told investors no immediate action is required ahead of the company’s forthcoming proxy materials for the 2026 shareholder meeting.
The most recent analyst rating on (TBI) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trueblue stock, see the TBI Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
TrueBlue Announces New Board Appointments
Positive
Dec 2, 2025
On December 2, 2025, TrueBlue, Inc. announced the appointment of William Greenblatt and William Seward to its board of directors, effective January 5, 2026. This decision follows an extensive search process and reflects TrueBlue’s commitment to strengthening its board with experienced leaders to support its strategic growth and transformation. Mr. Greenblatt, a pioneer in background screening, and Mr. Seward, a seasoned executive in logistics and supply chain, bring valuable expertise to the board. The appointments are part of TrueBlue’s ongoing efforts to evolve its board composition, enhance operational oversight, and align with shareholder feedback, with two current directors expected to step down by the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders.
The most recent analyst rating on (TBI) stock is a Hold with a $4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Trueblue stock, see the TBI Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.