Talos Energy Inc (TALO)
NYSE:TALO
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Talos Energy
(NYSE:TALO)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(14.81% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
The score is held back mainly by weak reported profitability (loss-making TTM) and limited valuation support given negative earnings. Offsetting that are strong cash generation and a supportive earnings-call backdrop (steady guidance, solid Q1 adjusted EBITDA/FCF, cost progress, and strong liquidity). Technicals add a modest positive bias with price holding above key longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Cash generation resilience
Talos’s ability to generate substantial operating cash flow and maintain positive free cash flow despite a loss-making TTM is a durable strength. Reliable cash conversion funds capex, supports buybacks and hedging, and provides a buffer against commodity swings, sustaining execution over months.
Negative Factors
Sustained reported losses
Persisting reported losses and a deeply negative net margin erode equity and limit financial optionality. Non‑cash impairments have driven reported losses, which reduce ROE and heighten sensitivity to further write‑downs, making long‑term capital allocation and investor confidence more fragile.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation resilience
Talos’s ability to generate substantial operating cash flow and maintain positive free cash flow despite a loss-making TTM is a durable strength. Reliable cash conversion funds capex, supports buybacks and hedging, and provides a buffer against commodity swings, sustaining execution over months.
Read all positive factors
Talos Energy (TALO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.50B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth-15.43%
EPS Growth-3103.48%
CountryUS
Employees700
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-4.29
Shares Outstanding166,925,810
10 Day Avg. Volume2,176,960
30 Day Avg. Volume2,705,560
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio4.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.34
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit28.33
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.36
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.63Price Target Upside30.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.94B
Talos Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Talos Energy Inc., an independent exploration and production company, focuses on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States Gulf of Mexico and offshore Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, the company had pro...
How the Company Makes Money
Talos primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids—from its operated and non-operated offshore fields. Revenue is generated from the sale of these commodities, with realized prices lar...
Talos Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone driven by strong Q1 execution: production slightly above guidance, robust adjusted EBITDA ($293M) and free cash flow ($113M), low unit costs (~$16/boe and ~30% below peers in 2025), disciplined capital allocation (repurchases, ~7% share count reduction), healthy liquidity (~$1B) and clear project pipeline (CPN, Daenerys, Monument, Brutus). Management acknowledged risks—commodity and geopolitical volatility, exploration/appraisal and rig market uncertainties, timing on Genovese, and outstanding second‑lien notes—but positioned the company as financially flexible with hedging and a focus on low‑breakeven projects. Overall, the positive operational and financial highlights materially outweigh the identified lowlights.Positive Updates
Strong Financial Results and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA of $293 million and adjusted free cash flow of $113 million in Q1 2026, achieved at a low reinvestment rate of ~41%. Invested just under $120 million of exploration and development capital in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price and Geopolitical Volatility
Market volatility driven by geopolitical developments (e.g., Iran war) and macro uncertainty. Management emphasized the backwardated forward curve and noted continued price volatility that could affect near- and medium-term cash flows despite current hedging positions.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Financial Results and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA of $293 million and adjusted free cash flow of $113 million in Q1 2026, achieved at a low reinvestment rate of ~41%. Invested just under $120 million of exploration and development capital in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said full‑year 2026 guidance is unchanged and gave Q2 production targets of 63–67k bbl/d oil and 88–92k boe/d total (Q1 was ~64k bbl/d oil and ~89k boe/d), noting Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $293M and adjusted free cash flow of $113M on ~ $120M of E&D capex and a ~41% reinvestment rate; LOE was ~ $16/boe in Q1 (in line with 2025), 2026 oil mix is ~73%, >40% of a $100M 2026 cost‑saving target has been achieved, development breakevens sit in the $30s–$40s with corporate FCF breakeven in the low‑$50s WTI, liquidity is ~ $1B with the credit facility extended to 2030, the company returned $38M (34% of Q1 adj FCF) via repurchases (≈$135M returned since 2025, ~7% fewer shares), added selective 2026 hedges and initial 2027 protection (about two‑thirds of production is sour), and project timing includes Daenerys spud later in Q2 with results by year‑end, Genovese remediation and midyear return, and Monument first oil on track late 2026.Talos Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.74B | 1.78B | 1.97B | 1.46B | 1.65B | 1.24B |
| Gross Profit | 118.55M | 51.36M | 382.59M | 402.28M | 925.77M | 561.58M |
| EBITDA | 770.69M | 740.47M | 1.26B | 1.05B | 966.11M | 402.67M |
| Net Income | -742.65M | -496.36M | -76.39M | 187.33M | 381.92M | -182.95M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.27B | 5.55B | 6.19B | 4.82B | 3.06B | 2.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 386.37M | 362.81M | 108.17M | 33.64M | 44.15M | 69.85M |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 1.24B | 1.24B | 1.20B | 602.14M | 980.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.40B | 3.38B | 3.43B | 2.66B | 1.89B | 2.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.87B | 2.17B | 2.76B | 2.16B | 1.17B | 760.65M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 329.34M | 453.92M | 453.68M | -42.37M | 386.57M | 118.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 834.67M | 935.83M | 962.59M | 519.07M | 709.74M | 411.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -493.02M | -546.75M | -1.32B | -512.63M | -311.98M | -293.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -188.67M | -164.52M | 436.12M | 85.41M | -423.47M | -82.02M |
Talos Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
13.50
Price Trends
13.99
Negative
12.67
Positive
10.98
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
41.25
Neutral
29.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TALO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.32, below the 50-day MA of 13.99, and above the 200-day MA of 10.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TALO.
Talos Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $1.70B | 51.23 | 10.68% | 13.84% | 0.87% | 770.57% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $2.31B | -16.81 | 4.63% | 17.48% | 22.47% | -56.03% | |
64 Neutral | $3.04B | 16.50 | 15.28% | ― | 52.41% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $2.50B | -2.59 | -33.22% | ― | -15.43% | -3103.48% | |
55 Neutral | $735.40M | -1.70 | 1.17% | 3.71% | -25.80% | -230.75% | |
52 Neutral | $1.63B | -1.56 | -110.09% | ― | -7.65% | -6775.00% |
* Energy Sector Average
TALO
Talos Energy
14.99
6.59
78.45%
KOS
Kosmos Energy
2.75
0.84
43.98%
KRP
Kimbell Royalty Partners
14.55
2.45
20.29%
HPK
HighPeak Energy
5.82
-3.97
-40.55%
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
13.75
1.38
11.13%
BKV
BKV Corporation
27.80
6.02
27.64%
Talos Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Talos Energy Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results, Boosts Buybacks
Positive
May 6, 2026
Talos Energy reported first-quarter 2026 results on May 5, 2026, with oil output of 63.8 thousand barrels per day and total production of 88.8 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, both at or above guidance, generating $174 million in operat...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Talos Energy Reports 2025 Results and Operational Progress
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
Talos Energy reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 24, 2026, highlighting average production of 89.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in the quarter and 94.6 thousand barrels per day for the year, along with ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.