Talos Energy Inc (TALO)
NYSE:TALO
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Talos Energy
(NYSE:TALO)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(7.41% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and an improved balance sheet, partially offset by pronounced recent GAAP earnings losses. Technicals are supportive with a strong trend, but momentum appears stretched. Valuation is pressured by a negative P/E, while the latest earnings call was constructive on cash flow, costs, and liquidity despite lower 2026 production guidance and impairment-related headlines.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Talos produced very strong operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025, delivering adjusted free cash flow that funds capital programs, buybacks and project development. Durable FCF reduces refinancing risk, supports multi-year offshore investments and gives optionality for CCS and returns.
Negative Factors
Profitability volatility
Talos swung from prior profits to large GAAP losses driven by significant non‑cash ceiling test impairments. This earnings volatility and reserve revaluation sensitivity can erode equity, complicate covenant metrics and limit return-of-capital flexibility if commodity or SEC pricing pressures persist.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Talos produced very strong operating and free cash flow in 2024–2025, delivering adjusted free cash flow that funds capital programs, buybacks and project development. Durable FCF reduces refinancing risk, supports multi-year offshore investments and gives optionality for CCS and returns.
Read all positive factors
Talos Energy (TALO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.60
Revenue Growth-0.02%
EPS Growth-473.61%
CountryUS
Employees700
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.44
Shares Outstanding168,514,680
10 Day Avg. Volume2,176,960
30 Day Avg. Volume2,705,560
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)1.08
P/FCF Ratio4.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.31
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.71Price Target Upside31.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.90B
Talos Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Talos Energy Inc., an independent exploration and production company, focuses on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States Gulf of Mexico and offshore Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, the company had pro...
How the Company Makes Money
Talos primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids—from its operated and non-operated offshore fields. Revenue is generated from the sale of these commodities, with realized prices lar...
Talos Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated strong operational and financial performance in 2025: robust adjusted EBITDA (~$1.2B), meaningful adjusted free cash flow (~$418M), aggressive cost reductions (~30% below offshore peers), material efficiency improvements (~$72M realized vs $25M target), a healthy balance sheet (0.7x leverage, ~$1B liquidity), and clear progress on growth projects (Tarantula debottlenecking, Monument, Daenerys appraisal, lease additions). Near-term headwinds include a non-cash $170M impairment driven by lower trailing prices, the Genovese well outage that reduced Q4 volumes and will depress early-2026 production, and planned maintenance/weather-related downtime that contributes to 2026 guidance being below 2025 production. On balance, the positives—strong cash generation, advantaged cost structure, reserve/resource upside, capital returns, and clear project pipeline—outweigh the near-term operational and commodity-related negatives, leaving an overall constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Operational Safety and Environmental Performance
No serious injuries in 2025 and a spill rate significantly below industry averages, underscoring strong safety and environmental stewardship.
Negative Updates
Genovese Well Safety Valve Failure and Production Impact
Genovese was shut in in Q4 due to a surface-controlled subsurface safety valve piston failure, reducing Q4 volumes by ~3,000 boe/d. The plan is to run an insert safety valve from an intervention vessel with the well expected to return in the early part of H2 2026. Planned downtime (including Genovese) is estimated to reduce 2026 annual production by ~6,000 boe/d, and the company also includes a 4,000 boe/d contingency for unplanned/weather-related downtime.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operational Safety and Environmental Performance
No serious injuries in 2025 and a spill rate significantly below industry averages, underscoring strong safety and environmental stewardship.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 Talos guided capital (ex‑P&A) of $500–$550 million (≈60% operated / 40% non‑op), P&A of $100–$130 million, and ~10% of the budget to exploration (including the Daenerys appraisal); production is forecast at 85,000–90,000 boe/d (62,000–66,000 bbls oil/d) with oil ≈73% of the mix, while planned maintenance is expected to reduce annual production by ~6,000 boe/d (including ~2,000 boe/d from Genovese shut in H1) plus a 4,000 boe/d contingency for weather/unplanned downtime. Hedging covers ~29,000 bbl/d in Q1 at a ~ $63/bbl floor (~47% of Q1 oil at midpoint) and ~23,000 bbl/d for the year with floors >$61 (~36% of annual oil at midpoint). Key timing: Brutus reactivation begins Q2 (three wells expected online by YE‑2026, fourth in early‑2027), Genovese to return early H2, and Monument is slated to spud in March with both wells to be completed and first oil by year‑end (20,000 bbl/d committed capacity); management expects a higher 2026 year‑end exit rate than 2025 and retains ~ $1.0 billion liquidity and 0.7x leverage (credit facility extended to 2030 with a $700M borrowing base).Talos Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.78B | 1.97B | 1.46B | 1.65B | 1.24B |
| Gross Profit | 51.36M | 382.59M | 402.28M | 925.77M | 561.58M |
| EBITDA | 740.47M | 1.26B | 1.05B | 966.11M | 402.67M |
| Net Income | -496.36M | -76.39M | 187.33M | 381.92M | -182.95M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.55B | 6.19B | 4.82B | 3.06B | 2.77B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 362.81M | 108.17M | 33.64M | 44.15M | 69.85M |
| Total Debt | 1.24B | 1.24B | 1.20B | 602.14M | 980.77M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.38B | 3.43B | 2.66B | 1.89B | 2.01B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.17B | 2.76B | 2.16B | 1.17B | 760.65M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 453.92M | 453.68M | -42.37M | 386.57M | 118.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 935.83M | 962.59M | 519.07M | 709.74M | 411.39M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -546.75M | -1.32B | -512.63M | -311.98M | -293.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -164.52M | 436.12M | 85.41M | -423.47M | -82.02M |
Talos Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
13.50
Price Trends
13.99
Negative
12.67
Positive
10.98
Positive
Market Momentum
0.06
Positive
41.25
Neutral
29.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TALO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.32, below the 50-day MA of 13.99, and above the 200-day MA of 10.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TALO.
Talos Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.74B | 11.74 | 12.05% | 13.84% | -2.71% | -113.80% | |
68 Neutral | $2.14B | 10.15 | 8.09% | 17.48% | 9.33% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $2.42B | -3.89 | -20.26% | ― | -0.02% | -473.61% | |
59 Neutral | $2.86B | 14.44 | 10.00% | ― | 31.67% | ― | |
57 Neutral | $729.09M | 31.31 | 1.17% | 3.71% | -22.39% | -71.57% | |
51 Neutral | $1.53B | -0.62 | -79.00% | ― | -22.11% | -248.33% |
* Energy Sector Average
TALO
Talos Energy
13.50
6.35
88.81%
KOS
Kosmos Energy
2.48
0.68
37.78%
KRP
Kimbell Royalty Partners
14.08
3.24
29.91%
HPK
HighPeak Energy
5.35
-3.61
-40.29%
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
12.75
1.47
13.07%
BKV
BKV Corporation
27.75
10.45
60.40%
Talos Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Talos Energy Reports 2025 Results and Operational Progress
Positive
Feb 25, 2026
Talos Energy reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 24, 2026, highlighting average production of 89.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in the quarter and 94.6 thousand barrels per day for the year, along with ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Talos Energy Strengthens Liquidity With New Credit Agreement
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 20, 2026, Talos Energy Inc. and its subsidiaries entered into an amended and restated credit agreement that replaces a 2018 facility, reaffirming a $700 million borrowing base, including a $250 million letter of credit sublimit, with co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.