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HighPeak Energy (HPK)
NASDAQ:HPK

HighPeak Energy (HPK) AI Stock Analysis

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HighPeak Energy

(NASDAQ:HPK)

Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(7.84%Upside)
HighPeak Energy's overall stock score reflects strong financial health, positive earnings call sentiment, and strategic corporate actions to enhance liquidity. Technical analysis presents a bearish outlook, but the valuation remains reasonable. The most significant factor is the company’s robust financial performance and strategic management decisions, providing a solid foundation despite market volatility concerns.
Positive Factors
Financial Strategy
HighPeak's focus on refinancing its $1.1bn term loan could improve its financial stability, potentially benefiting the stock.
Negative Factors
Market Position
Analysts perceive better risk/reward opportunities elsewhere in the sector, which could negatively impact HighPeak's stock attractiveness.
Oil Price Sensitivity
HighPeak's high sensitivity to changes in oil prices poses a risk to its valuation, especially with potential shifts in the oil market.

HighPeak Energy (HPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 64,213 MBoe of proved reserves. HighPeak Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHighPeak Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) that it extracts from its reserves. The company's revenue model is heavily dependent on the production volume and market prices of these commodities. HighPeak Energy's key revenue streams include the direct sale of oil and gas to market operators, refineries, and other end-users. The company may also engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and secure stable cash flows. Additionally, strategic partnerships or joint ventures with other operators can enhance operational efficiency and contribute to earnings by sharing resources and expertise.

HighPeak Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.03%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment, emphasizing strong production performance and operational efficiencies, despite some concerns about increased CapEx and market volatility.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Performance
Production averaged over 53,000 Boes a day, a 6% increase from Q4, exceeding guidance and consensus estimates.
Increased EBITDA
Generated almost $200 million of EBITDA during the quarter, marking a 10% increase compared to the fourth quarter.
Operational Efficiency Gains
Realized higher levels of operating efficiencies, with spud-to-spud timing reduced from 14 days to about 11 days, translating to a single rig drilling over 30 wells per year.
Reserve Replacement Success
Achieved a 400% reserve replacement ratio over the past three years, driven by organic growth.
Cost Reductions and Efficiency
Lease operating expenses dropped by 3% quarter-over-quarter, and cost savings across all AFE items except OTCG products.
Negative Updates
Increased CapEx Spend
First quarter CapEx spend was 38% of the full-year budget, slightly above the initial plan due to additional wells.
Impact of Tariffs on Costs
Tariffs on OTCG products increased costs by 3%, affecting AFE by approximately 2%.
Market Volatility Concerns
Due to current macroeconomic conditions, the company plans to reduce drilling activity temporarily, reflecting market uncertainties.
Company Guidance
In the 2025 first quarter earnings call, HighPeak Energy provided several key metrics and guidance updates. The company reported a production average exceeding 53,000 Boes per day, surpassing guidance and consensus estimates, with a 6% increase compared to Q4 while maintaining the same oil percentage per Boe. This strong production contributed to nearly $200 million of EBITDA for the quarter, marking a 10% increase from Q4. HighPeak achieved these results against a backdrop of a roughly 3% reduction in lease operating expenses and improved operational efficiencies, particularly in drilling, where spud-to-spud timing decreased from 14 to about 11 days. Consequently, the company is raising the bottom end of its production guidance range. Capital expenditures for Q1 accounted for 38% of the annual budget, slightly above the anticipated 35%, due to accelerated completion activities. HighPeak plans to drop one of its two rigs for four months to manage operational DUCs and maintain its original 2025 activity levels, reflecting a cautious approach to current market volatility. The company also highlighted significant improvements in cost efficiencies, including potential savings from implementing simul-frac techniques, which could reduce well completion times and costs significantly. Looking forward, HighPeak remains committed to maintaining capital discipline, optimizing its capital structure, and sustaining shareholder value creation amidst ongoing market uncertainty.

HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
HighPeak Energy displays strong financial health with significant revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage and a strong equity base, though attention is needed on the recent revenue decline and slowing free cash flow growth.
Income Statement
80
Positive
HighPeak Energy has shown substantial revenue growth since 2020, with a notable increase in gross profit margin to 48.7% in TTM. Net profit margin improved to 12.0% TTM, highlighting enhanced cost management. However, a slight decline in total revenue in the latest period requires monitoring.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.07 in TTM, indicating lower leverage. Return on equity decreased slightly to 7.7% TTM, but remains healthy. The equity ratio at 52.8% TTM suggests a strong equity base, providing financial stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating cash flow remains robust at $676M TTM with a positive free cash flow of $44.9M. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 5.4 indicates efficient cash generation. However, free cash flow growth has slowed compared to previous periods.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.04B1.07B1.11B755.69M220.12M24.62M
Gross Profit506.39M376.74M483.04M469.90M119.12M-5.79M
EBITDA736.50M801.35M854.62M540.94M140.31M-12.78M
Net Income124.97M95.07M215.87M236.85M55.56M-101.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.09B3.06B3.08B2.28B818.96M537.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments51.62M86.65M194.51M30.50M34.87M19.55M
Total Debt120.00M929.77M1.15B704.35M97.93M586.00K
Total Liabilities1.46B1.46B1.53B1.11B265.90M63.70M
Stockholders Equity1.63B1.60B1.55B1.17B553.06M474.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow44.88M69.21M-369.55M-807.33M-143.98M-123.38M
Operating Cash Flow676.00M690.39M756.39M504.01M147.01M1.31M
Investing Cash Flow-629.21M-620.84M-1.13B-1.18B-250.37M-139.82M
Financing Cash Flow-168.55M-177.41M533.56M674.03M118.67M135.35M

HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price10.20
Price Trends
50DMA
9.91
Positive
100DMA
10.85
Negative
200DMA
12.57
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Positive
RSI
47.65
Neutral
STOCH
27.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.76, above the 50-day MA of 9.91, and below the 200-day MA of 12.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HPK.

HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
BTBTU
77
Outperform
$1.76B5.4410.33%2.07%-7.42%-26.06%
SESEI
76
Outperform
$2.21B66.075.52%1.47%33.59%-27.16%
73
Outperform
$1.55B60.760.95%31.40%92.89%
HPHPK
72
Outperform
$1.29B11.607.09%1.57%-11.59%-28.62%
NRNRP
71
Outperform
$1.28B9.3731.98%3.08%-19.21%-30.92%
71
Outperform
$1.80B5.4512.75%-15.60%32.51%
44
Neutral
AU$1.39B-6.74-23.02%6.58%5.33%-26.92%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HPK
HighPeak Energy
10.20
-4.61
-31.13%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
97.51
6.93
7.65%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
14.50
-8.59
-37.20%
SEI
Solaris Energy Infrastructure
32.66
24.43
296.84%
TALO
Talos Energy
8.67
-2.99
-25.64%
SDRL
Seadrill Limited
29.11
-21.91
-42.94%

HighPeak Energy Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
HighPeak Energy Announces $725M Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

On June 30, 2025, HighPeak Energy announced its intention to offer $725 million in senior notes due 2030 in a private placement to eligible purchasers. The proceeds from this offering, along with borrowings from a new revolving credit facility, are intended to fully repay the company’s existing term loan credit agreement. This move is expected to enhance HighPeak’s financial flexibility and liquidity, supporting its strategic focus on maintaining a conservative balance sheet and generating free cash flow. The announcement reflects HighPeak’s ongoing efforts to optimize its capital structure and strengthen its market position in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Buy with a $31.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Positive
May 12, 2025

HighPeak Energy, Inc. reported its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, showing a 6% increase in sales volumes compared to the previous quarter, with net income reaching $36.3 million. The company achieved significant operational efficiencies, drilling and completing four additional wells, and reduced its lease operating expenses by 3%. Despite global economic uncertainties affecting oil prices, HighPeak maintained its capital discipline by temporarily reducing its rig count while still meeting its 2025 drilling targets. The company also declared a quarterly dividend and updated its production guidance, reflecting strong well performance and cost management.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Buy with a $31.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2025