HighPeak Energy (HPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $880.40M
• Dividend Yield: 2.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 467.63K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: -20.30%
• EPS Growth: -27.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 126,132,286
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 458,586
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 467,626
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.55
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.95
• 1Y Price Target: $9.50
• Price Target Upside: 40.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $7.00 ▲(3.40% Upside)

HighPeak Energy's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation. However, the score is tempered by weak technical indicators and financial challenges, including declining revenue growth and negative free cash flow trends.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency Gains

Operational efficiency improvements, such as cost reductions in drilling and completion, enhance profitability and competitiveness in the long term.

Successful Refinancing

Extending debt maturities and increasing liquidity improve financial flexibility, allowing the company to navigate market uncertainties and invest in growth opportunities.

Middle Spraberry Well Success

The success of the Middle Spraberry well indicates strong potential for future development, enhancing reserve growth and long-term production capacity.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

Declining revenue growth can indicate challenges in market demand or competitive positioning, potentially impacting future profitability and market share.

Negative Free Cash Flow Trends

Negative free cash flow trends can limit the company's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities and may strain financial flexibility over time.

Reduced Production Activity

Reduced production activity can impact revenue generation and market presence, potentially affecting the company's ability to meet its production targets.

HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HighPeak Energy (HPK) is an independent energy company focused on the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources primarily in the United States. Operating mainly in the prolific Permian Basin, HPK leverages advanced technologies and efficient operational practices to maximize resource recovery and drive sustainable growth. The company's core services include drilling, production optimization, and resource management, aimed at delivering reliable and cost-effective energy solutions to meet growing market demands.

How the Company Makes Money

HighPeak Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its exploration and production activities. The company engages in the extraction of hydrocarbons from its leased properties and sells the produced commodities at market prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refineries and distributors, as well as contracts with energy trading companies. Additionally, HPK may benefit from joint ventures and strategic partnerships with other energy firms, which can enhance its operational capabilities and provide access to new markets. Effective cost management and technological advancements in extraction methods further contribute to the company's profitability.

HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

HighPeak Energy demonstrates strong profitability margins and a stable balance sheet. However, challenges such as declining revenue growth and negative free cash flow trends need addressing to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

HighPeak Energy's income statement shows mixed performance. The TTM data reveals a decline in revenue growth at -7.21%, indicating potential challenges in maintaining sales momentum. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 61.88% and a net profit margin of 12.59%, reflecting strong cost management and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also robust at 24.83% and 71.55%, respectively, suggesting efficient operations. Despite the recent revenue decline, the company has shown resilience in maintaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of HighPeak Energy indicates a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62, which is manageable for the industry. The return on equity (ROE) is 7.48%, showing moderate profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 51.79%, suggesting a balanced capital structure with a good proportion of assets financed by equity. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a stable financial foundation with room for improvement in leveraging equity for higher returns.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement presents some concerns, particularly with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -30.73% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 4.37, indicating good cash generation from operations relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting challenges in converting profits into free cash flow. The company needs to focus on improving free cash flow generation to enhance financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	964.23M	1.07B	1.11B	755.69M	220.12M	24.62M
Gross Profit	461.67M	376.74M	483.04M	469.90M	119.12M	-5.79M
EBITDA	760.65M	792.11M	854.62M	540.94M	140.31M	-89.28M
Net Income	121.42M	95.07M	215.87M	236.85M	55.56M	-101.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.19B	3.06B	3.08B	2.28B	818.96M	537.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	21.85M	86.65M	194.51M	30.50M	34.87M	19.55M
Total Debt	1.03B	1.05B	1.15B	704.35M	97.93M	586.00K
Total Liabilities	1.54B	1.46B	1.53B	1.11B	265.90M	63.70M
Stockholders Equity	1.65B	1.60B	1.55B	1.17B	553.06M	474.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	31.09M	69.21M	-369.55M	-807.33M	-143.98M	-123.38M
Operating Cash Flow	614.89M	690.39M	756.39M	504.01M	147.01M	1.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-618.31M	-620.84M	-1.13B	-1.18B	-250.37M	-139.82M
Financing Cash Flow	-132.63M	-177.41M	533.56M	674.03M	118.67M	135.35M

HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.94, below the 50-day MA of 7.16, and below the 200-day MA of 9.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HPK.

HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VTS	―	$846.80M	21.07	6.49%	10.28%	3.96%	29.26%
INR	―	$685.47M	―	―	―	―	―
SBR	―	$1.06B	14.38	987.03%	7.49%	-16.05%	-17.58%
Sector *	―	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
HPK	―	$880.40M	8.13	6.80%	2.52%	-20.30%	-27.90%
KOS	―	$798.68M	―	-14.81%	―	-21.77%	-160.32%

HighPeak Energy Corporate Events

HighPeak Energy Announces CEO Transition and Board Changes

On September 16, 2025, HighPeak Energy announced the retirement of Jack Hightower as CEO and Chairman, effective September 15, 2025. Michael L. Hollis, the current President, has been appointed as the Interim CEO. The company has entered into a Separation Agreement with Mr. Hightower, which includes vesting of shares, extension of stock option exercise periods, and a cash separation payment. Additionally, Daniel Silver has been appointed as a director, replacing Mr. Hightower on the Board. These changes are part of a broader transition plan aimed at maintaining stability and continuity in leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

HighPeak Energy Adopts Change in Control Plan

On September 9, 2025, HighPeak Energy, Inc. announced the adoption of a Change in Control Plan to provide discretionary severance payments and benefits to its employees upon specific qualifying events. This plan is designed to offer financial security to employees in the event of a change in control, with potential benefits up to three times the sum of their highest base salary and cash incentive bonus from recent years, subject to certain conditions and execution of a release of claims.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

HighPeak Energy’s Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights

HighPeak Energy’s recent earnings call for the second quarter of 2025 painted a largely positive picture despite some challenges. The company showcased strong financial and operational performance, maintaining robust margins and achieving significant capital expenditure reductions. While market volatility and reduced production activity posed challenges, the overall sentiment was optimistic, with highlights significantly outweighing the lowlights.

HighPeak Energy Reports Stable Q2 2025 Results

HighPeak Energy, Inc. is a publicly traded independent crude oil and natural gas company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, focusing on the development and exploitation of unconventional reserves in the Midland Basin.

HighPeak Energy Extends Loan Maturities to 2028

HighPeak Energy reported its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025, with sales volumes averaging 48.6 thousand barrels of crude oil equivalent per day. The company achieved a net income of $26.2 million and EBITDAX of $156.0 million. Recent amendments to their Term Loan and Senior Credit Facility have extended maturity dates to September 2028, increased liquidity, and deferred mandatory payments, enhancing financial flexibility. HighPeak’s strategic initiatives, including hedging a significant portion of production, aim to capitalize on future opportunities and minimize exposure to commodity price declines.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Buy with a $31.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

HighPeak Energy Extends Credit Agreements and Increases Borrowings

On August 1, 2025, HighPeak Energy, Inc. announced amendments to its Term Loan Credit Agreement and Senior Credit Facility Agreement, extending their maturity dates to September 30, 2028. The amendments also increased the company’s borrowings to $1.2 billion, providing additional liquidity, and deferred amortization payments until September 2026. These changes are expected to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and liquidity, potentially impacting its operations and market positioning positively. Additionally, HighPeak entered into new crude oil derivative contracts through March 31, 2027, which may help manage price risks associated with oil production.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Buy with a $31.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.