HighPeak Energy (HPK)
NASDAQ:HPK
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HighPeak Energy
(NASDAQ:HPK)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(50.44% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/21/26
The score is driven by weakened financial performance (TTM net loss and slightly negative free cash flow), partially offset by a strong technical uptrend and a constructive earnings call emphasizing cost/capital efficiency and improved underlying free cash flow. Valuation support is limited due to the negative P/E, with only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Operating cost reduction
Sustained LOE cuts and a $7.4M QoQ decline in operating costs indicate structural operational improvements and better margin control. Lower per‑unit operating expense supports durable free cash flow generation and makes the business more resilient to commodity swings.
Negative Factors
Negative trailing profitability
A TTM net loss and near -19% margin signal persistent profitability pressure that erodes retained earnings and returns. If commodity or operational headwinds persist, negative earnings can reduce equity cushions and limit strategic flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating cost reduction
Sustained LOE cuts and a $7.4M QoQ decline in operating costs indicate structural operational improvements and better margin control. Lower per‑unit operating expense supports durable free cash flow generation and makes the business more resilient to commodity swings.
Read all positive factors
HighPeak Energy (HPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$866.82M
Dividend Yield3.71%
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth-25.80%
EPS Growth-230.75%
CountryUS
Employees47
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.19
Shares Outstanding126,358,100
10 Day Avg. Volume817,286
30 Day Avg. Volume1,161,010
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)0.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio-56.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.28
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.56
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit15.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.74
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.88Price Target Upside39.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$874.07M
HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 20...
How the Company Makes Money
HighPeak Energy primarily makes money by producing and selling crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from its operated wells and leasehold acreage in the Permian Basin. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are sold to purcha...
HighPeak Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution, meaningful cost and capital efficiency gains, a material free-cash-flow turnaround (adjusted for working capital), and strategic balance-sheet optionality. Key positives include production above guidance, LOE down significantly, >60% improvement in oil produced per capital dollar, and high-margin production from workovers. Negatives include a sizable derivatives mark-to-market loss, a one-time working capital drag (~USD 35M), removal of ~18 wells from inventory due to water encroachment, and a deliberate reduction in growth-oriented capital spending that limits near-term volume expansion. On balance, highlights materially outweigh the lowlights given the operational and cash-generation improvements and management's clear capital discipline.Positive Updates
Production Beats Guidance
Total production averaged ~46,000 BOE/day in Q1, ~7.5% above the midpoint of guidance; oil production rose ~10% quarter-over-quarter, driven by new wells and base optimization.
Negative Updates
Large Derivatives Mark-to-Market Loss
Management reported a significant derivatives impact in Q1: approximately USD 140 million of non-cash mark-to-market loss and ~USD 17.4 million of actual cash loss related to hedges (transcript referenced an inconsistent aggregate figure).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Beats Guidance
Total production averaged ~46,000 BOE/day in Q1, ~7.5% above the midpoint of guidance; oil production rose ~10% quarter-over-quarter, driven by new wells and base optimization.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a maintenance‑mode 2026 plan with clear metric-driven guidance: Q1 production averaged ~46,000 BOE/d (≈7.5% above the guidance midpoint) with oil +10% QoQ; drilling/turn‑in‑line activity represented ~1/3 of the planned program and CapEx was ~29% of the full‑year budget (management still expects ~60% of 2026 capital to be deployed in H1), exiting the quarter with 18 wells in progress and ~9–10 DUCs into 2027 and a CapEx midpoint for modeling of roughly $270M (capital program reduced ~50% vs. 2025). Operational and cost improvements were highlighted: LOE/BOE came in >17% below the guided range and ~22% below Q4, total operating costs fell by ≈$7.4M QoQ, net oil produced per $MM of capital improved >60% (from ~21,500 to ~35,400 barrels/$1M), 16 targeted workovers added ~1,000 bbl/d (≈63% per‑well lift), free cash flow ex‑WC was >$21M (vs. −$42M prior quarter), Q1 working capital swung ≈−$35M, derivatives showed an on‑paper loss of ~ $155M (≈$17.4M cash loss and ≈$140M non‑cash MTM), average spot exposure is ~40% with a hedge floor in the mid‑$60s, SWD/disposal capacity is just over 400k bbl/day (~45–50% utilized) with ~95% recycle, and an ATM for up to $150M of common stock is available to strengthen the balance sheet.HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
48
Neutral
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
54
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 770.99M | 863.36M | 1.07B | 1.11B | 755.69M | 220.12M |
| Gross Profit | 128.41M | 178.71M | 376.74M | 483.04M | 469.90M | 119.12M |
| EBITDA | 527.94M | 572.83M | 792.11M | 842.68M | 540.94M | 140.31M |
| Net Income | -144.82M | 18.96M | 95.07M | 215.87M | 236.85M | 55.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.28B | 3.34B | 3.06B | 3.08B | 2.28B | 818.96M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.83M | 162.07M | 86.65M | 194.51M | 30.50M | 34.87M |
| Total Debt | 1.19B | 1.19B | 1.05B | 1.15B | 704.69M | 97.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.81B | 1.75B | 1.46B | 1.53B | 1.11B | 265.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.47B | 1.59B | 1.60B | 1.55B | 1.17B | 553.06M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -23.05M | -10.56M | 69.21M | -369.55M | -807.33M | -143.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 402.65M | 511.60M | 690.39M | 756.39M | 504.01M | 147.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -473.10M | -515.34M | -620.84M | -1.13B | -1.18B | -250.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 114.65M | 79.17M | -177.41M | 533.56M | 674.03M | 118.67M |
HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
5.65
Price Trends
6.64
Positive
5.79
Positive
6.11
Positive
Market Momentum
0.24
Positive
51.70
Neutral
18.82
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.88, below the 50-day MA of 6.64, and below the 200-day MA of 6.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HPK.
HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $866.82M | -6.05 | -9.13% | 3.71% | -25.80% | -230.75% | |
54 Neutral | $1.58B | -1.70 | -110.09% | ― | -7.65% | -6775.00% | |
| ― | $1.09B | 16.15 | 959.49% | 7.51% | -11.58% | -12.24% | |
63 Neutral | $708.69M | -35.27 | -3.12% | 11.72% | 11.44% | -157.45% | |
60 Neutral | $858.95M | 5.16 | 0.16% | ― | 44.96% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
HPK
HighPeak Energy
7.00
-2.74
-28.13%
KOS
Kosmos Energy
2.74
1.08
65.06%
SBR
Sabine Royalty
75.70
13.61
21.92%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
17.31
-1.73
-9.09%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
12.96
-0.46
-3.40%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
13.79
-2.89
-17.33%
HighPeak Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Reports Strong Q1 2026 Operational Results
Negative
May 6, 2026
HighPeak Energy reported its first‑quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, highlighting operating performance that exceeded guidance despite geopolitical uncertainty and volatile commodity prices. Production averaged about 46,000 barrels of oil...
Regulatory Filings and Compliance
HighPeak Energy Clarifies Bylaws on Advisory Vote Outcomes
Neutral
May 1, 2026
On April 30, 2026, HighPeak Energy’s board approved a minor change to the company’s Second Amended and Restated Bylaws, effective immediately. The revision clarifies that in non-binding advisory votes with more than two choices, the op...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Unveils 2025 Results and 2026 Outlook
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
On March 11, 2026, HighPeak Energy reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, posting full-year net income of $19 million and EBITDAX of $607.1 million, alongside average 2025 production of 48.3 MBoe/d that was 68% crude oil and 85% l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.