HighPeak Energy (HPK)
NASDAQ:HPK
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HighPeak Energy
(NASDAQ:HPK)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$7.50
▲(18.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is primarily constrained by weakening financial performance (sharp net income decline), inconsistent free cash flow, and meaningful/rising leverage. Technicals are moderately constructive with near-term strength and positive MACD, but longer-term trend remains weak versus the 200-day average. The earnings call adds modest support via a cash-flow-first 2026 plan and claimed efficiency gains, tempered by dividend suspension and leverage-related constraints.
Positive Factors
Large, high-quality drilling inventory
A deep, multi-decade inventory across stacked Wolfcamp/Spraberry provides durable optionality to pace development and allocate capital to the highest-return blocks. This reduces execution risk, supports multi-year cash flow generation, and lets management optimize timing versus commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and amortization burden
A heavy amortization schedule and relatively high borrowing costs create recurring cash drains that constrain flexibility. In a cyclical E&P context, sizable scheduled repayments raise refinancing and liquidity risk if commodity prices weaken or operating cash flow underperforms expectations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large, high-quality drilling inventory
A deep, multi-decade inventory across stacked Wolfcamp/Spraberry provides durable optionality to pace development and allocate capital to the highest-return blocks. This reduces execution risk, supports multi-year cash flow generation, and lets management optimize timing versus commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
HighPeak Energy (HPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$801.11M
Dividend Yield3.71%
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)31.3
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth-22.39%
EPS Growth-71.57%
CountryUS
Employees47
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.21
Shares Outstanding126,358,100
10 Day Avg. Volume817,286
30 Day Avg. Volume1,161,010
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.39
Price to Book (P/B)0.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio-56.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.26
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.88Price Target Upside24.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$780.39M
HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
HighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 20...
How the Company Makes Money
HighPeak Energy primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—generated from its operated wells in the Midland Basin. Revenue is recognized based on the volumes produced and delivered (or sold) and th...
HighPeak Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasizes disciplined execution: management highlighted strong near-term production, significant capital-efficiency gains (estimated ~65% increase in production per dollar), large high-quality inventory, and decisive balance-sheet actions (dividend suspension, expanded hedges, and a commitment to accelerate debt paydown). Near-term trade-offs include a materially reduced 2026 CapEx program (~50% lower vs. prior year), conservative one‑rig pacing (limiting headline production growth), remediation of water issues in a small sub-area, and the reality of substantial term loan amortization and elevated leverage. Overall, the company presents a constructive, risk‑averse plan focused on liquidity and long‑term value creation rather than short‑term growth.Positive Updates
Strong near-term production
Quarter-to-date production is averaging more than 46,000 BOE/day, roughly 10% above the midpoint of 2026 guidance; management indicates a sustainable baseline in the low- to mid-40,000 BOE/day range for 2026.
Negative Updates
Anomalous water inflows in Northeast Flat Top
Six wells in the Northeast Flat Top area experienced anomalous water inflows; remedial work is underway and management will not drill in that sub-area in 2026. Impact to long-term inventory is described as limited (about 18 Wolfcamp A locations), but near-term activity is constrained.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong near-term production
Quarter-to-date production is averaging more than 46,000 BOE/day, roughly 10% above the midpoint of 2026 guidance; management indicates a sustainable baseline in the low- to mid-40,000 BOE/day range for 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that its 2026 plan is deliberately conservative: a nearly 50% reduction in capital budget versus 2025 (to roughly half of 2025’s ~$500M run-rate), anchored around one drilling rig and about one completion crew to drill ~30 wells and bring 36–38 wells online, while operating fully within cash flow even if oil settles in the mid–high $50s; quarter-to-date production is averaging >46,000 BOE/d (~10% above the midpoint of 2026 guidance) with a sustainable baseline in the low–mid 40,000 BOE/d range, corporate decline entering 2026 at ~38% and expected to fall ~2 points to ~36% by year-end, and an estimated 65% increase in production per dollar invested; other metrics include suspending the dividend to free $20–25M of annual liquidity, carrying ~14–15 DUCs into 2027 after bringing ~20+ operational DUCs into 2026, allocating ~70% of 2026 capital to Flat Top (≈50/50 North Borden vs. Flat Top core) and ~30% to Signal Peak with 90%+ of spend on Wolfcamp A/Lower Spraberry and 5–8% on Middle Spraberry, >2,600 total drilling locations (30+ years of high‑return inventory in core zones, >100 rig‑years), ~200 PUDs, >400 additional premium A/Lower Spraberry locations, and >200 Middle Spraberry locations targeting sub‑$50 breakeven.HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 863.36M | 1.07B | 1.11B | 755.69M | 220.12M |
| Gross Profit | 178.71M | 376.74M | 483.04M | 469.90M | 119.12M |
| EBITDA | 572.83M | 792.11M | 842.68M | 540.94M | 140.31M |
| Net Income | 18.96M | 95.07M | 215.87M | 236.85M | 55.56M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.34B | 3.06B | 3.08B | 2.28B | 818.96M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 162.07M | 86.65M | 194.51M | 30.50M | 34.87M |
| Total Debt | 1.19B | 1.05B | 1.15B | 704.69M | 97.93M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.75B | 1.46B | 1.53B | 1.11B | 265.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.59B | 1.60B | 1.55B | 1.17B | 553.06M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -10.56M | 69.21M | -369.55M | -807.33M | -143.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 511.60M | 690.39M | 756.39M | 504.01M | 147.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -515.34M | -620.84M | -1.13B | -1.18B | -250.37M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 79.17M | -177.41M | 533.56M | 674.03M | 118.67M |
HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis
Neutral
6.34
Price Trends
5.76
Positive
5.39
Positive
6.55
Negative
Market Momentum
0.22
Positive
49.46
Neutral
12.00
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.72, above the 50-day MA of 5.76, and below the 200-day MA of 6.55, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HPK.
HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
57 Neutral | $801.11M | 31.31 | 1.17% | 3.71% | -22.39% | -71.57% | |
51 Neutral | $1.52B | -0.62 | -79.00% | ― | -22.11% | -248.33% | |
| ― | $1.10B | 13.61 | 944.35% | 7.51% | -14.84% | -16.23% | |
69 Neutral | $729.51M | -245.28 | 3.86% | 11.72% | 6.23% | -64.88% | |
62 Neutral | $1.07B | ― | 0.09% | ― | ― | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
HPK
HighPeak Energy
6.34
-2.22
-25.92%
KOS
Kosmos Energy
2.57
0.92
55.76%
SBR
Sabine Royalty
75.78
15.55
25.82%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
18.34
0.14
0.75%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
12.20
-2.31
-15.93%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
16.80
1.57
10.31%
HighPeak Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Unveils 2025 Results and 2026 Outlook
Neutral
Mar 12, 2026
On March 11, 2026, HighPeak Energy reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, posting full-year net income of $19 million and EBITDAX of $607.1 million, alongside average 2025 production of 48.3 MBoe/d that was 68% crude oil and 85% l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.