HighPeak Energy (HPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $724.64M
• Dividend Yield: 2.83%
• Average Volume (3M): 553.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: -22.39%
• EPS Growth: -71.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 125,587,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 614,459
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 553,381
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.03
• 1Y Price Target: $9.50
• Price Target Upside: 40.32% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.47
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $866.58M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▼(-18.76% Downside)

HighPeak Energy's overall score reflects solid profitability and strategic improvements, but is weighed down by declining revenue growth, negative cash flow, and high debt levels. The stock's bearish technical indicators and market volatility further contribute to a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

The adoption of simul-frac techniques enhances operational efficiency, reducing costs significantly and improving profitability in the long term.

Governance Improvements

Enhanced governance structures improve oversight and strategic decision-making, potentially leading to better long-term performance and investor confidence.

Leadership Changes

The appointment of a new CEO and executive team signals a strategic shift, potentially improving operational focus and addressing financial challenges.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue Growth

A decline in revenue growth indicates potential challenges in market demand or competitive positioning, which could impact future profitability.

High Debt Levels

High debt levels can strain financial resources, limiting flexibility and increasing risk, especially in volatile market conditions.

Negative Cash Flow

Negative cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity issues, which could hinder the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or manage debt effectively.

HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HighPeak Energy (HPK) is an independent energy company focused on the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources primarily in the United States. Operating mainly in the prolific Permian Basin, HPK leverages advanced technologies and efficient operational practices to maximize resource recovery and drive sustainable growth. The company's core services include drilling, production optimization, and resource management, aimed at delivering reliable and cost-effective energy solutions to meet growing market demands.

How the Company Makes Money

HighPeak Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its exploration and production activities. The company engages in the extraction of hydrocarbons from its leased properties and sells the produced commodities at market prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refineries and distributors, as well as contracts with energy trading companies. Additionally, HPK may benefit from joint ventures and strategic partnerships with other energy firms, which can enhance its operational capabilities and provide access to new markets. Effective cost management and technological advancements in extraction methods further contribute to the company's profitability.

HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

HighPeak Energy demonstrates solid profitability with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, challenges include declining revenue growth and negative free cash flow, which could impact long-term financial health.

Income Statement

HighPeak Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a strong EBIT margin of 31.91% and a high EBITDA margin of 78.89% for the TTM, indicating efficient operations. However, the revenue growth rate has declined by 8.58% in the TTM, which is a concern. The net profit margin of 12.59% is decent but has decreased compared to previous years. Overall, profitability remains solid, but the declining revenue growth is a potential risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is 7.48%, which is reasonable but shows a declining trend. The equity ratio stands at 50.76%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. While the company maintains a healthy balance sheet, the declining ROE and moderate leverage warrant attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -132.44% for the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 4.37, indicating good cash generation from operations. However, the negative free cash flow and its low ratio to net income highlight potential liquidity issues. The company needs to improve its cash flow management to enhance financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	881.52M	1.07B	1.11B	755.69M	220.12M	24.62M
Gross Profit	277.51M	376.74M	483.04M	469.90M	119.12M	-5.79M
EBITDA	630.64M	792.11M	842.68M	540.94M	140.31M	-12.78M
Net Income	53.16M	95.07M	215.87M	236.85M	55.56M	-101.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.20B	3.06B	3.08B	2.28B	818.96M	537.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	164.91M	86.65M	194.51M	30.50M	34.87M	19.55M
Total Debt	30.00M	1.05B	1.15B	704.69M	97.93M	586.00K
Total Liabilities	1.58B	1.46B	1.53B	1.11B	265.90M	63.70M
Stockholders Equity	1.63B	1.60B	1.55B	1.17B	553.06M	474.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.57M	69.21M	-369.55M	-807.33M	-143.98M	-123.38M
Operating Cash Flow	558.02M	690.39M	756.39M	504.01M	147.01M	1.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-571.82M	-620.84M	-1.13B	-1.18B	-250.37M	-139.82M
Financing Cash Flow	43.14M	-177.41M	533.56M	674.03M	118.67M	135.35M

HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.77
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.04, above the 50-day MA of 6.40, and below the 200-day MA of 8.69, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.63 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HPK.

HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INR	68 Neutral	$874.81M	―	-2.91%	―	―	―
SBR	66 Neutral	$1.05B	13.23	986.82%	7.34%	-14.84%	-16.23%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
HPK	61 Neutral	$724.64M	16.12	2.83%	2.83%	-22.39%	-71.57%
VTS	59 Neutral	$836.12M	45.20	3.50%	10.03%	6.23%	-64.88%
KOS	47 Neutral	$550.08M	―	-31.42%	―	-22.11%	-248.33%

HighPeak Energy Corporate Events

HighPeak Energy Appoints New CEO Amid Financial Challenges

HighPeak Energy reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, revealing a net loss of $18.3 million, despite maintaining steady sales volumes of approximately 47.8 thousand barrels of crude oil equivalent per day. The company reduced capital expenditures by over 30% compared to the previous quarter and extended all debt maturities to September 2028, increasing liquidity by over $170 million. Recent management changes include the appointment of Michael Hollis as the permanent CEO and Jason Edgeworth as Chairman of the Board. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.04 per share, payable in December 2025, and emphasized a commitment to addressing high debt and improving operational discipline.

HighPeak Energy Appoints Michael L. Hollis as CEO

On November 4, 2025, HighPeak Energy appointed Michael L. Hollis as the permanent Chief Executive Officer, following his interim role since September 2025. The company also announced several other executive appointments, including Daniel Silver as Executive Vice President and Ryan Hightower as Executive Vice President, reflecting a strategic leadership restructuring. HighPeak Energy reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, showing a net loss of $18.3 million, despite maintaining consistent sales volumes. The company reduced capital expenditures by over 30% and extended debt maturities, aiming to improve financial stability. The leadership changes and financial adjustments indicate a focused effort to address operational challenges and enhance long-term strategic direction.

HighPeak Energy Announces CEO Transition and Board Changes

On September 16, 2025, HighPeak Energy announced the retirement of Jack Hightower as CEO and Chairman, effective September 15, 2025. Michael L. Hollis, the current President, has been appointed as the Interim CEO. The company has entered into a Separation Agreement with Mr. Hightower, which includes vesting of shares, extension of stock option exercise periods, and a cash separation payment. Additionally, Daniel Silver has been appointed as a director, replacing Mr. Hightower on the Board. These changes are part of a broader transition plan aimed at maintaining stability and continuity in leadership.

HighPeak Energy Adopts Change in Control Plan

On September 9, 2025, HighPeak Energy, Inc. announced the adoption of a Change in Control Plan to provide discretionary severance payments and benefits to its employees upon specific qualifying events. This plan is designed to offer financial security to employees in the event of a change in control, with potential benefits up to three times the sum of their highest base salary and cash incentive bonus from recent years, subject to certain conditions and execution of a release of claims.