HighPeak Energy (HPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $578.96M
• Dividend Yield: 3.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 738.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.9
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: -22.39%
• EPS Growth: -71.57%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 125,587,090
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 755,114
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 738,154
• PEG Ratio: -0.33
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.72
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.50
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.60
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.70
• 1Y Price Target: $8.50
• Price Target Upside: 95.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $779.14M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(14.94% Upside)

HighPeak Energy's overall score reflects solid profitability and strategic improvements, but is weighed down by declining revenue growth, negative cash flow, and high debt levels. The stock's bearish technical indicators and market volatility further contribute to a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

High operating profitability

Sustained high EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate efficient upstream operations and cost control. Over 2-6 months this margin cushion supports weathering commodity volatility, funds necessary maintenance capex, and provides operating leverage to improve cash generation as revenues recover.

Repeatable completion cost savings

A proven, repeatable completion technique that cuts per-well costs materially improves project economics and lowers breakeven. Persistently lower development costs enhance returns on new wells, enabling disciplined activity and faster payback under lower price scenarios.

Extended maturities and added liquidity

Pushing out maturities and boosting liquidity materially reduces near-term refinancing risk and gives management time to execute deleveraging and cash-flow driven plans. This structural relief improves solvency runway and strategic optionality over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue trend

Material negative revenue growth signals diminished top-line momentum from volumes or pricing. Over months this reduces scale economies, constrains reinvestment and debt paydown capacity, and increases reliance on operational improvements to restore sustainable cash generation.

Severely weakened free cash flow

A large deterioration in free cash flow undermines the company’s ability to fund capex, dividends, and debt reduction from internal resources. Persistently negative FCF forces dependence on external financing or asset sales, limiting strategic flexibility and increasing financial risk.

High leverage and recent net loss

Reported losses alongside elevated indebtedness raise interest and covenant sensitivity, constraining capital allocation. Over the medium term high leverage increases vulnerability to commodity cycles and slows deleveraging, requiring sustained cash generation or refinancing to restore balance sheet health.

HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 64,213 MBoe of proved reserves. HighPeak Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

HighPeak Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its exploration and production activities. The company engages in the extraction of hydrocarbons from its leased properties and sells the produced commodities at market prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refineries and distributors, as well as contracts with energy trading companies. Additionally, HPK may benefit from joint ventures and strategic partnerships with other energy firms, which can enhance its operational capabilities and provide access to new markets. Effective cost management and technological advancements in extraction methods further contribute to the company's profitability.

HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

HighPeak Energy shows solid profitability and a stable balance sheet, but faces challenges with declining revenue growth and negative free cash flow. Operational efficiency is strong, but cash flow issues and revenue decline need addressing for sustained growth.

Income Statement

HighPeak Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a strong EBIT margin of 31.91% and a high EBITDA margin of 78.89% for the TTM, indicating efficient operations. However, the revenue growth rate has declined by 8.58% in the TTM, which is a concern. The net profit margin of 12.59% is decent but has decreased compared to previous years. Overall, profitability remains solid, but the declining revenue growth is a potential risk.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is 7.48%, which is reasonable but shows a declining trend. The equity ratio stands at 50.76%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. While the company maintains a healthy balance sheet, the declining ROE and moderate leverage warrant attention.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -132.44% for the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 4.37, indicating good cash generation from operations. However, the negative free cash flow and its low ratio to net income highlight potential liquidity issues. The company needs to improve its cash flow management to enhance financial stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	881.52M	1.07B	1.11B	755.69M	220.12M	24.62M
Gross Profit	277.51M	376.74M	483.04M	469.90M	119.12M	-5.79M
EBITDA	630.64M	792.11M	842.68M	540.94M	140.31M	-12.78M
Net Income	53.16M	95.07M	215.87M	236.85M	55.56M	-101.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.20B	3.06B	3.08B	2.28B	818.96M	537.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	164.91M	86.65M	194.51M	30.50M	34.87M	19.55M
Total Debt	30.00M	1.05B	1.15B	704.69M	97.93M	586.00K
Total Liabilities	1.58B	1.46B	1.53B	1.11B	265.90M	63.70M
Stockholders Equity	1.63B	1.60B	1.55B	1.17B	553.06M	474.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	41.57M	69.21M	-369.55M	-807.33M	-143.98M	-123.38M
Operating Cash Flow	558.02M	690.39M	756.39M	504.01M	147.01M	1.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-571.82M	-620.84M	-1.13B	-1.18B	-250.37M	-139.82M
Financing Cash Flow	43.14M	-177.41M	533.56M	674.03M	118.67M	135.35M

HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.48, below the 50-day MA of 5.26, and below the 200-day MA of 7.72, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HPK.

HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
INR	68 Neutral	$825.50M	-25.72	-2.91%	―	―	―
SBR	66 Neutral	$983.96M	12.41	986.82%	7.51%	-14.84%	-16.23%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
HPK	61 Neutral	$578.96M	12.88	2.83%	3.71%	-22.39%	-71.57%
VTS	59 Neutral	$742.53M	40.14	3.50%	11.72%	6.23%	-64.88%
KOS	48 Neutral	$607.48M	―	-31.42%	―	-22.11%	-248.33%

HighPeak Energy Corporate Events

HighPeak Energy Appoints New CEO Amid Financial Challenges

HighPeak Energy reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, revealing a net loss of $18.3 million, despite maintaining steady sales volumes of approximately 47.8 thousand barrels of crude oil equivalent per day. The company reduced capital expenditures by over 30% compared to the previous quarter and extended all debt maturities to September 2028, increasing liquidity by over $170 million. Recent management changes include the appointment of Michael Hollis as the permanent CEO and Jason Edgeworth as Chairman of the Board. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.04 per share, payable in December 2025, and emphasized a commitment to addressing high debt and improving operational discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

HighPeak Energy Appoints Michael L. Hollis as CEO

On November 4, 2025, HighPeak Energy appointed Michael L. Hollis as the permanent Chief Executive Officer, following his interim role since September 2025. The company also announced several other executive appointments, including Daniel Silver as Executive Vice President and Ryan Hightower as Executive Vice President, reflecting a strategic leadership restructuring. HighPeak Energy reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, showing a net loss of $18.3 million, despite maintaining consistent sales volumes. The company reduced capital expenditures by over 30% and extended debt maturities, aiming to improve financial stability. The leadership changes and financial adjustments indicate a focused effort to address operational challenges and enhance long-term strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.