HighPeak Energy (HPK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.19B
• Dividend Yield: 1.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 365.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: -11.59%
• EPS Growth: -28.62%
• Country: US
• Employees: 47
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 126,067,440
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 440,924
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 365,094
• PEG Ratio: 0.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 25.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.35
• 1Y Price Target: $7.00
• Price Target Upside: -25.53% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $10.50 ▲(11.70%Upside)

HighPeak Energy's overall stock score reflects robust financial performance and positive sentiment from recent earnings calls. Key strengths include strong production and operational efficiencies. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and recent revenue decline requires monitoring.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

HighPeak's well level breakeven is below $50 WTI, suggesting efficient cost management.

Debt Refinancing

HighPeak's focus on refinancing its $1.1bn term loan could improve financial stability.

Negative Factors

Market Position

Analysts see a better risk/reward balance elsewhere, which may affect HighPeak's attractiveness to investors.

Oil Price Sensitivity

HighPeak's increased leverage to oil prices presents a potential downside to its valuation.

Production Efficiency

HighPeak's acreage is less productive compared to core Midland acreage, impacting operational efficiency.

HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

HighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 64,213 MBoe of proved reserves. HighPeak Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

HighPeak Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) that it extracts from its reserves. The company's revenue model is heavily dependent on the production volume and market prices of these commodities. HighPeak Energy's key revenue streams include the direct sale of oil and gas to market operators, refineries, and other end-users. The company may also engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and secure stable cash flows. Additionally, strategic partnerships or joint ventures with other operators can enhance operational efficiency and contribute to earnings by sharing resources and expertise.

HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

HighPeak Energy displays strong financial health with solid revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage and a strong equity base. While cash flows are healthy, attention is needed on slowing free cash flow growth and recent revenue decline.

Income Statement

HighPeak Energy has shown substantial revenue growth since 2020, with a notable increase in gross profit margin to 48.7% in TTM. Net profit margin improved to 12.0% TTM, highlighting enhanced cost management. However, a slight decline in total revenue in the latest period requires monitoring.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.07 in TTM, indicating lower leverage. Return on equity decreased slightly to 7.7% TTM, but remains healthy. The equity ratio at 52.8% TTM suggests a strong equity base, providing financial stability.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains robust at $676M TTM with a positive free cash flow of $44.9M. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 5.4 indicates efficient cash generation. However, free cash flow growth has slowed compared to previous periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.07B	1.11B	755.69M	220.12M	24.62M
Gross Profit	376.74M	483.04M	469.90M	119.12M	-5.79M
EBITDA	801.35M	854.62M	540.94M	140.31M	-12.78M
Net Income	95.07M	215.87M	236.85M	55.56M	-101.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.06B	3.08B	2.28B	818.96M	537.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	86.65M	194.51M	30.50M	34.87M	19.55M
Total Debt	929.77M	1.15B	704.35M	97.93M	586.00K
Total Liabilities	1.46B	1.53B	1.11B	265.90M	63.70M
Stockholders Equity	1.60B	1.55B	1.17B	553.06M	474.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	69.21M	-369.55M	-807.33M	-143.98M	-123.38M
Operating Cash Flow	690.39M	756.39M	504.01M	147.01M	1.31M
Investing Cash Flow	-620.84M	-1.13B	-1.18B	-250.37M	-139.82M
Financing Cash Flow	-177.41M	533.56M	674.03M	118.67M	135.35M

HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 9.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.41, below the 50-day MA of 10.02, and below the 200-day MA of 12.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HPK.

HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HPK	76 Outperform	$1.19B	10.69	7.09%	1.70%	-11.59%	-28.62%
VTS	71 Outperform	$937.54M	31.18	4.24%	8.96%	4.15%	3.91%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$15.15B	9.89	6.22%	5.21%	4.47%	-70.67%
SBR	66 Neutral	$963.11M	12.37	798.58%	7.64%	-11.35%	-11.76%
KOS	57 Neutral	$1.06B	4.03	-1.15%	―	-11.11%	-105.10%
TXO	―	$845.32M	38.46	2.97%	15.36%	―	―
INR	66 Neutral	$857.75M	―		―	―	―

HighPeak Energy Corporate Events

HighPeak Energy Announces $725M Senior Notes Offering

On June 30, 2025, HighPeak Energy announced its intention to offer $725 million in senior notes due 2030 in a private placement to eligible purchasers. The proceeds from this offering, along with borrowings from a new revolving credit facility, are intended to fully repay the company’s existing term loan credit agreement. This move is expected to enhance HighPeak’s financial flexibility and liquidity, supporting its strategic focus on maintaining a conservative balance sheet and generating free cash flow. The announcement reflects HighPeak’s ongoing efforts to optimize its capital structure and strengthen its market position in the energy sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Buy with a $31.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

HighPeak Energy Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

HighPeak Energy, Inc. reported its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, showing a 6% increase in sales volumes compared to the previous quarter, with net income reaching $36.3 million. The company achieved significant operational efficiencies, drilling and completing four additional wells, and reduced its lease operating expenses by 3%. Despite global economic uncertainties affecting oil prices, HighPeak maintained its capital discipline by temporarily reducing its rig count while still meeting its 2025 drilling targets. The company also declared a quarterly dividend and updated its production guidance, reflecting strong well performance and cost management.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Buy with a $31.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.