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Highpeak Energy Inc (HPK)
:HPK
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HighPeak Energy
(NASDAQ:HPK)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(5.04%Upside)
Positive Factors
Refinancing strategy
HighPeak's focus on refinancing its $1.1bn term loan could strengthen its financial position, offering potential upside.
Negative Factors
Market competition
Analysts see a better risk/reward balance elsewhere in the sector, which could impact HighPeak's competitive edge.
Oil price sensitivity
HighPeak's sensitivity to changes in oil prices poses a risk to its stock valuation.
HighPeak Energy (HPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.50B
Dividend Yield1.34%
Average Volume (3M)323.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.5
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth-11.59%
EPS Growth-28.62%
CountryUS
Employees47
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength67
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding126,067,440
10 Day Avg. Volume302,097
30 Day Avg. Volume323,643
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.05
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-2.97
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.91
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.00Price Target Upside-41.18% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering1
HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 64,213 MBoe of proved reserves. HighPeak Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHighPeak Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) that it extracts from its reserves. The company's revenue model is heavily dependent on the production volume and market prices of these commodities. HighPeak Energy's key revenue streams include the direct sale of oil and gas to market operators, refineries, and other end-users. The company may also engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and secure stable cash flows. Additionally, strategic partnerships or joint ventures with other operators can enhance operational efficiency and contribute to earnings by sharing resources and expertise.
HighPeak Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 20.20%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment, emphasizing strong production performance and operational efficiencies, despite some concerns about increased CapEx and market volatility.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Performance
Production averaged over 53,000 Boes a day, a 6% increase from Q4, exceeding guidance and consensus estimates.
Increased EBITDA
Generated almost $200 million of EBITDA during the quarter, marking a 10% increase compared to the fourth quarter.
Operational Efficiency Gains
Realized higher levels of operating efficiencies, with spud-to-spud timing reduced from 14 days to about 11 days, translating to a single rig drilling over 30 wells per year.
Reserve Replacement Success
Achieved a 400% reserve replacement ratio over the past three years, driven by organic growth.
Cost Reductions and Efficiency
Lease operating expenses dropped by 3% quarter-over-quarter, and cost savings across all AFE items except OTCG products.
Negative Updates
Increased CapEx Spend
First quarter CapEx spend was 38% of the full-year budget, slightly above the initial plan due to additional wells.
Impact of Tariffs on Costs
Tariffs on OTCG products increased costs by 3%, affecting AFE by approximately 2%.
Market Volatility Concerns
Due to current macroeconomic conditions, the company plans to reduce drilling activity temporarily, reflecting market uncertainties.
Company Guidance
In the 2025 first quarter earnings call, HighPeak Energy provided several key metrics and guidance updates. The company reported a production average exceeding 53,000 Boes per day, surpassing guidance and consensus estimates, with a 6% increase compared to Q4 while maintaining the same oil percentage per Boe. This strong production contributed to nearly $200 million of EBITDA for the quarter, marking a 10% increase from Q4. HighPeak achieved these results against a backdrop of a roughly 3% reduction in lease operating expenses and improved operational efficiencies, particularly in drilling, where spud-to-spud timing decreased from 14 to about 11 days. Consequently, the company is raising the bottom end of its production guidance range. Capital expenditures for Q1 accounted for 38% of the annual budget, slightly above the anticipated 35%, due to accelerated completion activities. HighPeak plans to drop one of its two rigs for four months to manage operational DUCs and maintain its original 2025 activity levels, reflecting a cautious approach to current market volatility. The company also highlighted significant improvements in cost efficiencies, including potential savings from implementing simul-frac techniques, which could reduce well completion times and costs significantly. Looking forward, HighPeak remains committed to maintaining capital discipline, optimizing its capital structure, and sustaining shareholder value creation amidst ongoing market uncertainty.HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
HighPeak Energy displays strong financial health with significant revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage and a strong equity base, though attention is needed on the recent revenue decline and slowing free cash flow growth.Income Statement
HighPeak Energy has shown substantial revenue growth since 2020, with a notable increase in gross profit margin to 48.7% in TTM. Net profit margin improved to 12.0% TTM, highlighting enhanced cost management. However, a slight decline in total revenue in the latest period requires monitoring.80
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.07 in TTM, indicating lower leverage. Return on equity decreased slightly to 7.7% TTM, but remains healthy. The equity ratio at 52.8% TTM suggests a strong equity base, providing financial stability.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains robust at $676M TTM with a positive free cash flow of $44.9M. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 5.4 indicates efficient cash generation. However, free cash flow growth has slowed compared to previous periods.70
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 1.04B | 1.07B | 1.11B | 755.69M | 220.12M | 24.62M | Gross Profit |
| 506.39M | 376.74M | 483.04M | 469.90M | 119.12M | -5.79M | EBIT |
| 324.77M | 337.41M | 426.46M | 422.56M | 101.85M | -29.18M | EBITDA |
| 736.50M | 801.35M | 854.62M | 540.94M | 140.31M | -12.78M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 124.97M | 95.07M | 215.87M | 236.85M | 55.56M | -101.46M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 51.62M | 86.65M | 194.51M | 30.50M | 34.87M | 19.55M | Total Assets |
| 3.09B | 3.06B | 3.08B | 2.28B | 818.96M | 537.93M | Total Debt |
| 120.00M | 929.77M | 1.15B | 704.35M | 97.93M | 586.00K | Net Debt |
| 68.38M | 843.12M | 956.31M | 673.85M | 63.06M | -18.97M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.46B | 1.46B | 1.53B | 1.11B | 265.90M | 63.70M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.63B | 1.60B | 1.55B | 1.17B | 553.06M | 474.23M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 44.88M | 69.21M | -369.55M | -807.33M | -143.98M | -123.38M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 676.00M | 690.39M | 756.39M | 504.01M | 147.01M | 1.31M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -629.21M | -620.84M | -1.13B | -1.18B | -250.37M | -139.82M | Financing Cash Flow |
| -168.55M | -177.41M | 533.56M | 674.03M | 118.67M | 135.35M |
HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
11.90
Price Trends
9.56
Positive
11.30
Positive
12.83
Negative
Market Momentum
0.53
Negative
70.95
Negative
85.82
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 11.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.33, above the 50-day MA of 9.56, and below the 200-day MA of 12.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.95 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HPK.
HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $1.61B | 5.11 | 10.33% | 2.20% | -7.42% | -26.06% | |
76 Outperform | $1.76B | 5.46 | 12.75% | ― | -15.60% | 32.51% | |
75 Outperform | $1.50B | 13.53 | 7.09% | 1.34% | -11.59% | -28.62% | |
74 Outperform | $1.88B | 54.91 | 5.52% | 1.77% | 33.59% | -27.16% | |
71 Outperform | $1.63B | 65.52 | 0.95% | ― | 31.40% | 92.89% | |
70 Neutral | $1.25B | 9.12 | 31.98% | 3.16% | -19.21% | -30.92% | |
58 Neutral | $7.57B | 3.50 | -4.45% | 10.15% | 0.79% | -49.51% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
HPK
HighPeak Energy
11.90
-1.58
-11.72%
NRP
Natural Resource PRN
94.91
8.03
9.24%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
13.64
-8.57
-38.59%
SEI
Solaris Energy Infrastructure
27.14
19.06
235.89%
TALO
Talos Energy
9.35
-1.03
-9.92%
SDRL
Seadrill Limited
29.16
-19.92
-40.59%
HighPeak Energy Corporate Events
DividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results
Positive
May 12, 2025
HighPeak Energy, Inc. reported its financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, showing a 6% increase in sales volumes compared to the previous quarter, with net income reaching $36.3 million. The company achieved significant operational efficiencies, drilling and completing four additional wells, and reduced its lease operating expenses by 3%. Despite global economic uncertainties affecting oil prices, HighPeak maintained its capital discipline by temporarily reducing its rig count while still meeting its 2025 drilling targets. The company also declared a quarterly dividend and updated its production guidance, reflecting strong well performance and cost management.
The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Buy with a $31.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.