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HighPeak Energy (HPK)
NASDAQ:HPK
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HighPeak Energy
(NASDAQ:HPK)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(12.58% Upside)
Positive Factors
Cost Efficiency
HPK noted savings of $400,000 per well from running simul frac operations.
Financial Stability
HPK extended their Term Loan, now maturing in September of 2028, providing financial stability.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations before the impact in working capital of $122mn was below the estimate of $148mn.
Earnings
2Q25 EBITDAX of $156mn coming in below Consensus and BofAe at $180mn and $182mn respectively due to lower oil production and higher lease operating expenses.
Valuation
The stock is near fair value at $65 WTI, which is seen as a headwind to valuation.
HighPeak Energy (HPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$935.90M
Dividend Yield2.16%
Average Volume (3M)576.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth-20.30%
EPS Growth-27.90%
CountryUS
Employees47
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength56
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding126,132,286
10 Day Avg. Volume681,511
30 Day Avg. Volume576,152
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.33
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.86
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.75Price Target Upside2.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering2
HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionHighPeak Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Midland Basin in West Texas. As of December 31, 2021, the company had approximately 64,213 MBoe of proved reserves. HighPeak Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyHighPeak Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) that it extracts from its reserves. The company's revenue model is heavily dependent on the production volume and market prices of these commodities. HighPeak Energy's key revenue streams include the direct sale of oil and gas to market operators, refineries, and other end-users. The company may also engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and secure stable cash flows. Additionally, strategic partnerships or joint ventures with other operators can enhance operational efficiency and contribute to earnings by sharing resources and expertise.
HighPeak Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
HighPeak Energy demonstrated strong financial and operational performance during the second quarter of 2025, with notable achievements in maintaining margins, reducing CapEx, and successful refinancing efforts. However, the company faced challenges with reduced production activity and market volatility. Despite these challenges, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights, indicating a positive overall sentiment.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Margins Despite Market Challenges
HighPeak Energy maintained strong margins at $33.58 per barrel of oil equivalent, generating over $155 million of EBITDAX during the quarter, despite lower commodity prices and global uncertainties.
Significant CapEx Reduction
The company reduced its second quarter CapEx spend by 30% compared to the first quarter, demonstrating capital discipline in response to market conditions.
Successful Refinancing
HighPeak completed the amendment and extension of its term loan and revolving credit facility, extending debt maturities to 2028 and increasing liquidity with a $1.2 billion upsized term loan.
Operational Efficiency Gains
The company realized low-single digit declines in D&C costs quarter-over-quarter and achieved a 10% savings on completion costs through successful simul-frac operations.
Middle Spraberry Well Success
The first Middle Spraberry test well significantly outperformed initial type curve estimates with 170,000 barrels of oil produced in less than a year, indicating strong potential for further development.
Solar Farm Benefits
The Flat Top solar farm reduced electrical costs and CO2 emissions, saving about $810,000 and reducing emissions by over 4,600 metric tons in 2024.
Negative Updates
Reduced Production Activity
Production was slower than the first quarter due to timing of turned-in-lines and a deliberate reduction in development activity.
Market and Commodity Price Volatility
The company faced challenges from lower commodity prices driven by geopolitical issues and global economic uncertainties.
Fluctuating Quarterly Production Volumes
Production volumes are expected to fluctuate from quarter to quarter due to the timing of large multi-well pad completions and paused frac activity.
Company Guidance
During HighPeak Energy's second quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance on several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company reported strong production results, though slightly down from the first quarter, with a notable margin of $33.58 per barrel of oil equivalent. HighPeak generated over $155 million in EBITDAX and reduced its capital expenditure (CapEx) by 30% compared to the first quarter. The company extended its term loan and super priority revolving credit facility, enhancing its liquidity to $1.2 billion and pushing debt maturities to September 2028. HighPeak also implemented additional hedges covering a significant portion of its production through March 2027, with over 50% of volumes hedged at a floor price of over $62 per barrel for the second half of the year. The company plans to continue utilizing simul-frac operations, which have already resulted in a 10% savings in completion costs and are expected to be used for approximately one-third of the remaining completions in 2025. Despite fluctuations in quarterly production due to development timing, HighPeak remains confident in achieving its 2025 production guidance.HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
HighPeak Energy displays strong financial health with solid revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage and a strong equity base. While cash flows are healthy, attention is needed on slowing free cash flow growth and recent revenue decline.Income Statement
HighPeak Energy has shown substantial revenue growth since 2020, with a notable increase in gross profit margin to 48.7% in TTM. Net profit margin improved to 12.0% TTM, highlighting enhanced cost management. However, a slight decline in total revenue in the latest period requires monitoring.80
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's debt-to-equity ratio improved to 0.07 in TTM, indicating lower leverage. Return on equity decreased slightly to 7.7% TTM, but remains healthy. The equity ratio at 52.8% TTM suggests a strong equity base, providing financial stability.75
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains robust at $676M TTM with a positive free cash flow of $44.9M. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 5.4 indicates efficient cash generation. However, free cash flow growth has slowed compared to previous periods.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 964.23M | 1.07B | 1.11B | 755.69M | 220.12M | 24.62M |
| Gross Profit | 461.67M | 376.74M | 483.04M | 469.90M | 119.12M | -5.79M |
| EBITDA | 760.65M | 792.11M | 854.62M | 540.94M | 140.31M | -89.28M |
| Net Income | 121.42M | 95.07M | 215.87M | 236.85M | 55.56M | -101.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.19B | 3.06B | 3.08B | 2.28B | 818.96M | 537.93M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 21.85M | 86.65M | 194.51M | 30.50M | 34.87M | 19.55M |
| Total Debt | 1.03B | 1.05B | 1.15B | 704.35M | 97.93M | 586.00K |
| Total Liabilities | 1.54B | 1.46B | 1.53B | 1.11B | 265.90M | 63.70M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.65B | 1.60B | 1.55B | 1.17B | 553.06M | 474.23M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 31.09M | 69.21M | -369.55M | -807.33M | -143.98M | -123.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 614.89M | 690.39M | 756.39M | 504.01M | 147.01M | 1.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -618.31M | -620.84M | -1.13B | -1.18B | -250.37M | -139.82M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -132.63M | -177.41M | 533.56M | 674.03M | 118.67M | 135.35M |
HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
7.55
Price Trends
9.08
Negative
9.32
Negative
11.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.49
Negative
40.04
Neutral
51.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.55 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.00, below the 50-day MA of 9.08, and below the 200-day MA of 11.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HPK.
HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $1.02B | 25.46 | 6.49% | 8.11% | 3.96% | 29.26% | |
66 Neutral | $1.05B | 14.27 | 987.03% | 7.39% | -16.05% | -17.58% | |
66 Neutral | $861.40M | ― | ― | ― | ― | ||
65 Neutral | $15.26B | 7.31 | 3.02% | 5.32% | 4.27% | -62.52% | |
64 Neutral | $935.90M | 8.85 | 6.80% | 2.16% | -20.30% | -27.90% | |
53 Neutral | $860.86M | 4.03 | -14.81% | ― | -21.77% | -160.32% | |
| ― | $762.60M | 45.26 | 1.92% | 15.96% | ― | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
HPK
HighPeak Energy
7.55
-8.43
-52.75%
KOS
Kosmos Energy
1.83
-3.20
-63.62%
SBR
Sabine Royalty
72.31
12.54
20.98%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
26.82
3.25
13.79%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
14.10
-3.13
-18.17%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
14.65
-7.24
-33.07%
HighPeak Energy Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Extends Loan Maturities to 2028
Positive
Aug 11, 2025
HighPeak Energy reported its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025, with sales volumes averaging 48.6 thousand barrels of crude oil equivalent per day. The company achieved a net income of $26.2 million and EBITDAX of $156.0 million. Recent amendments to their Term Loan and Senior Credit Facility have extended maturity dates to September 2028, increased liquidity, and deferred mandatory payments, enhancing financial flexibility. HighPeak’s strategic initiatives, including hedging a significant portion of production, aim to capitalize on future opportunities and minimize exposure to commodity price declines.
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
HighPeak Energy Extends Credit Agreements and Increases Borrowings
Positive
Aug 4, 2025
On August 1, 2025, HighPeak Energy, Inc. announced amendments to its Term Loan Credit Agreement and Senior Credit Facility Agreement, extending their maturity dates to September 30, 2028. The amendments also increased the company’s borrowings to $1.2 billion, providing additional liquidity, and deferred amortization payments until September 2026. These changes are expected to enhance the company’s financial flexibility and liquidity, potentially impacting its operations and market positioning positively. Additionally, HighPeak entered into new crude oil derivative contracts through March 31, 2027, which may help manage price risks associated with oil production.
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
HighPeak Energy Announces $725M Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 30, 2025
On June 30, 2025, HighPeak Energy announced its intention to offer $725 million in senior notes due 2030 in a private placement to eligible purchasers. The proceeds from this offering, along with borrowings from a new revolving credit facility, are intended to fully repay the company’s existing term loan credit agreement. This move is expected to enhance HighPeak’s financial flexibility and liquidity, supporting its strategic focus on maintaining a conservative balance sheet and generating free cash flow. The announcement reflects HighPeak’s ongoing efforts to optimize its capital structure and strengthen its market position in the energy sector.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.