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Highpeak Energy Inc (HPK)
:HPK
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HighPeak Energy (HPK) AI Stock Analysis

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HPK

HighPeak Energy

(NASDAQ:HPK)

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Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-3.99% Downside)
HighPeak Energy's overall score reflects solid profitability and reasonable valuation, but is tempered by technical weaknesses and challenges highlighted in the earnings call. The company's operational efficiencies and strategic plans are promising, but high debt levels and market volatility remain significant risks.
Positive Factors
Operational Efficiency
The simul-frac technique saves over $400,000 per well, enhancing cost efficiency and potentially boosting margins, supporting long-term profitability.
Governance Improvements
Improved governance with independent board committees and a new chairman enhances oversight, potentially improving strategic decision-making and investor confidence.
Stable Production Levels
Consistent production levels despite reduced activity indicate operational resilience, supporting steady revenue generation and market position.
Negative Factors
High Debt Levels
High debt levels can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth and weather market fluctuations.
Declining Revenue Growth
Declining revenue growth suggests challenges in market expansion or product demand, potentially affecting future profitability and competitive positioning.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt effectively.

HighPeak Energy (HPK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

HighPeak Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHighPeak Energy (HPK) is an independent energy company focused on the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas resources primarily in the United States. Operating mainly in the prolific Permian Basin, HPK leverages advanced technologies and efficient operational practices to maximize resource recovery and drive sustainable growth. The company's core services include drilling, production optimization, and resource management, aimed at delivering reliable and cost-effective energy solutions to meet growing market demands.
How the Company Makes MoneyHighPeak Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas produced from its exploration and production activities. The company engages in the extraction of hydrocarbons from its leased properties and sells the produced commodities at market prices. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refineries and distributors, as well as contracts with energy trading companies. Additionally, HPK may benefit from joint ventures and strategic partnerships with other energy firms, which can enhance its operational capabilities and provide access to new markets. Effective cost management and technological advancements in extraction methods further contribute to the company's profitability.

HighPeak Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call was a mix of solid operational performance and strategic improvements alongside significant challenges like high debt and market volatility. The company is taking steps to address governance issues and improve financial health, but faces ongoing market challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Third Quarter Results
HighPeak delivered solid results tracking internal expectations with consistent production levels despite reduced development activity. CapEx was down 30% from Q2, and LOE per BOE was consistent with the first half of 2025.
Successful Simul-Frac Completion
HighPeak completed its second successful simul-frac on a 6-well pad, achieving cost savings of over $400,000 per well compared to traditional methods.
Governance and Leadership Improvements
Reorganization has resulted in the establishment of fully independent board committees and appointment of a new independent chairman, enhancing governance and oversight.
Negative Updates
High Debt Levels
The company acknowledged its high debt and the market's negative perception, outlining the need for a methodical approach to deleveraging.
Market Volatility and Weak Commodity Prices
Challenges were noted in the form of weak commodity prices and market volatility, leading to a delay in picking up a second rig.
Controlled Company Concerns
The company faced criticism for being a controlled company, affecting governance scores and market perception.
Company Guidance
In the HighPeak Energy Third Quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Michael Hollis highlighted several key metrics and strategic plans. The company reported stable production levels consistent with the second quarter, despite operating with only one rig, drilling six wells, and completing nine. Capital expenditure was reduced by 30% from Q2, aligning with internal estimates. The company maintained its lease operating expenses per barrel of oil equivalent consistent with the first half of 2025. A significant operational efficiency was achieved through the simul-frac completion technique, saving over $400,000 per well compared to traditional methods. Looking forward, HighPeak plans to run two rigs throughout Q4 2025, with further activity decisions for 2026 dependent on oil prices and market conditions. Hollis emphasized a focus on governance improvements, debt reduction, and operating within cash flow, outlining a strategic roadmap for 2026 that aligns with long-term value creation.

HighPeak Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
HighPeak Energy shows solid profitability with a strong EBIT and EBITDA margin, but faces challenges with declining revenue growth and negative free cash flow. The balance sheet is stable, but the declining ROE and moderate leverage require attention.
Income Statement
72
Positive
HighPeak Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has a strong EBIT margin of 31.91% and a high EBITDA margin of 78.89% for the TTM, indicating efficient operations. However, the revenue growth rate has declined by 8.58% in the TTM, which is a concern. The net profit margin of 12.59% is decent but has decreased compared to previous years. Overall, profitability remains solid, but the declining revenue growth is a potential risk.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is 7.48%, which is reasonable but shows a declining trend. The equity ratio stands at 50.76%, suggesting a balanced capital structure. While the company maintains a healthy balance sheet, the declining ROE and moderate leverage warrant attention.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -132.44% for the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 4.37, indicating good cash generation from operations. However, the negative free cash flow and its low ratio to net income highlight potential liquidity issues. The company needs to improve its cash flow management to enhance financial stability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue881.52M1.07B1.11B755.69M220.12M24.62M
Gross Profit277.51M376.74M483.04M469.90M119.12M-5.79M
EBITDA630.64M792.11M842.68M540.94M140.31M-12.78M
Net Income53.16M95.07M215.87M236.85M55.56M-101.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.20B3.06B3.08B2.28B818.96M537.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments164.91M86.65M194.51M30.50M34.87M19.55M
Total Debt30.00M1.05B1.15B704.69M97.93M586.00K
Total Liabilities1.58B1.46B1.53B1.11B265.90M63.70M
Stockholders Equity1.63B1.60B1.55B1.17B553.06M474.23M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow41.57M69.21M-369.55M-807.33M-143.98M-123.38M
Operating Cash Flow558.02M690.39M756.39M504.01M147.01M1.31M
Investing Cash Flow-571.82M-620.84M-1.13B-1.18B-250.37M-139.82M
Financing Cash Flow43.14M-177.41M533.56M674.03M118.67M135.35M

HighPeak Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price6.77
Price Trends
50DMA
6.68
Negative
100DMA
7.59
Negative
200DMA
9.25
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.31
Positive
RSI
40.05
Neutral
STOCH
41.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HPK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.13, above the 50-day MA of 6.68, and below the 200-day MA of 9.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HPK.

HighPeak Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$770.10M-2.91%
66
Neutral
$1.14B14.39986.82%6.75%-14.84%-16.23%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
61
Neutral
$698.26M15.532.83%3.05%-22.39%-71.57%
59
Neutral
$801.32M43.323.50%10.28%6.23%-64.88%
49
Neutral
$636.17M-31.42%-22.11%-248.33%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HPK
HighPeak Energy
5.70
-9.55
-62.62%
KOS
Kosmos Energy
1.33
-2.67
-66.75%
SBR
Sabine Royalty
78.26
19.96
34.24%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
21.11
-4.33
-17.02%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
13.10
-2.74
-17.30%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
12.65
-9.24
-42.21%

HighPeak Energy Corporate Events

HighPeak Energy Reports Q3 2025 Results Amid Management Changes
Nov 7, 2025

HighPeak Energy, Inc. is a publicly traded independent crude oil and natural gas company based in Fort Worth, Texas, specializing in the acquisition, development, exploration, and exploitation of unconventional reserves in the Midland Basin.

HighPeak Energy’s Earnings Call: Solid Results Amid Challenges
Nov 7, 2025

The recent earnings call for HighPeak Energy Inc. revealed a mixed sentiment, highlighting both solid operational performance and strategic improvements, alongside significant challenges such as high debt and market volatility. The company is actively addressing governance issues and aiming to improve its financial health, but it continues to face ongoing market challenges.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Appoints New CEO Amid Financial Challenges
Negative
Nov 5, 2025

HighPeak Energy reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, revealing a net loss of $18.3 million, despite maintaining steady sales volumes of approximately 47.8 thousand barrels of crude oil equivalent per day. The company reduced capital expenditures by over 30% compared to the previous quarter and extended all debt maturities to September 2028, increasing liquidity by over $170 million. Recent management changes include the appointment of Michael Hollis as the permanent CEO and Jason Edgeworth as Chairman of the Board. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.04 per share, payable in December 2025, and emphasized a commitment to addressing high debt and improving operational discipline.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
HighPeak Energy Appoints Michael L. Hollis as CEO
Neutral
Nov 5, 2025

On November 4, 2025, HighPeak Energy appointed Michael L. Hollis as the permanent Chief Executive Officer, following his interim role since September 2025. The company also announced several other executive appointments, including Daniel Silver as Executive Vice President and Ryan Hightower as Executive Vice President, reflecting a strategic leadership restructuring. HighPeak Energy reported its third quarter 2025 financial results, showing a net loss of $18.3 million, despite maintaining consistent sales volumes. The company reduced capital expenditures by over 30% and extended debt maturities, aiming to improve financial stability. The leadership changes and financial adjustments indicate a focused effort to address operational challenges and enhance long-term strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
HighPeak Energy Announces CEO Transition and Board Changes
Neutral
Sep 16, 2025

On September 16, 2025, HighPeak Energy announced the retirement of Jack Hightower as CEO and Chairman, effective September 15, 2025. Michael L. Hollis, the current President, has been appointed as the Interim CEO. The company has entered into a Separation Agreement with Mr. Hightower, which includes vesting of shares, extension of stock option exercise periods, and a cash separation payment. Additionally, Daniel Silver has been appointed as a director, replacing Mr. Hightower on the Board. These changes are part of a broader transition plan aimed at maintaining stability and continuity in leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
HighPeak Energy Adopts Change in Control Plan
Neutral
Sep 15, 2025

On September 9, 2025, HighPeak Energy, Inc. announced the adoption of a Change in Control Plan to provide discretionary severance payments and benefits to its employees upon specific qualifying events. This plan is designed to offer financial security to employees in the event of a change in control, with potential benefits up to three times the sum of their highest base salary and cash incentive bonus from recent years, subject to certain conditions and execution of a release of claims.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

HighPeak Energy’s Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
Sep 1, 2025

HighPeak Energy’s recent earnings call for the second quarter of 2025 painted a largely positive picture despite some challenges. The company showcased strong financial and operational performance, maintaining robust margins and achieving significant capital expenditure reductions. While market volatility and reduced production activity posed challenges, the overall sentiment was optimistic, with highlights significantly outweighing the lowlights.

HighPeak Energy Reports Stable Q2 2025 Results
Aug 13, 2025

HighPeak Energy, Inc. is a publicly traded independent crude oil and natural gas company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas, focusing on the development and exploitation of unconventional reserves in the Midland Basin.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
HighPeak Energy Extends Loan Maturities to 2028
Positive
Aug 11, 2025

HighPeak Energy reported its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025, with sales volumes averaging 48.6 thousand barrels of crude oil equivalent per day. The company achieved a net income of $26.2 million and EBITDAX of $156.0 million. Recent amendments to their Term Loan and Senior Credit Facility have extended maturity dates to September 2028, increased liquidity, and deferred mandatory payments, enhancing financial flexibility. HighPeak’s strategic initiatives, including hedging a significant portion of production, aim to capitalize on future opportunities and minimize exposure to commodity price declines.

The most recent analyst rating on (HPK) stock is a Buy with a $31.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on HighPeak Energy stock, see the HPK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 08, 2025