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Kosmos Energy Ltd. (KOS)
NYSE:KOS
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Kosmos Energy (KOS) AI Stock Analysis

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KOS

Kosmos Energy

(NYSE:KOS)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(7.76%Upside)
The overall score is primarily influenced by financial performance challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability. However, the positive sentiment from the earnings call and technical momentum provide some optimism. Valuation concerns due to the negative P/E ratio slightly dampen the outlook.
Positive Factors
Financial Stability
The MOU includes a guaranteed reimbursement mechanism for gas sales, reducing financial risk for the company.
Production Capabilities
The agreement includes a commitment to boost gas supply by 100 mmcfd, indicating an increase in production capabilities.
Negative Factors
Cost and Information Challenges
The recommendation has been downgraded to HOLD from BUY due to surprising cost increases and information lag from non-operator status.
Reserves and Resource Management
Reserves for 2024 have declined by 10%, which was unexpected as flat reserves were anticipated.
Valuation and Upside Potential
Remain HOLD rated on valuation, suggesting limited immediate upside potential.

Kosmos Energy (KOS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kosmos Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKosmos Energy (KOS) is a leading independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused on the Atlantic Margins. The company operates in key regions such as the Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, and South America. Kosmos Energy is engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas, leveraging its technical expertise and strategic partnerships to optimize these processes. Its core products include crude oil and natural gas, which are sold to various international markets.
How the Company Makes MoneyKosmos Energy generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of produced crude oil and natural gas to international markets. Kosmos Energy enters into production sharing contracts and joint ventures with national oil companies and other industry players to mitigate risks and share the costs associated with exploration and development. Additionally, its strategic acquisitions and partnerships in high-potential regions contribute to its earnings by expanding its asset base and production capacity. Kosmos also benefits from favorable market conditions and oil prices, which significantly impact its revenue and profitability.

Kosmos Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 45.91%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Kosmos Energy reported several positive milestones, including the first LNG cargo export from the GTA project and significant cost reductions. However, challenges remain with production in the Gulf of America and higher operating costs. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights, as the company demonstrates financial resilience and operational progress despite the volatile market environment.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
First LNG Cargo Export from GTA Project
Kosmos Energy successfully exported the first LNG cargo from the GTA project, marking Mauritania and Senegal as new LNG exporting nations. All four trains on the FLNG vessel are operational with production ramping up towards the contracted sales volume equivalent to 2.45 million tonnes of LNG per annum.
Significant Cost Reductions
Kosmos Energy achieved a material reduction in costs, with CapEx expected to fall by over 50% year-on-year. First quarter CapEx was $86 million, which is $200 million lower than the same quarter last year. Additionally, the company is committed to reducing their annual overhead by $25 million by year-end.
Operational Progress in Ghana
Ghana operations saw the completion of a 4D seismic survey and a scheduled Jubilee FPSO shutdown, both completed safely and on budget. Drilling activities are set to increase with two Jubilee wells planned in 2025 and four more in 2026.
Improved Financial Resilience
Kosmos enhanced its financial resilience by refinancing its reserve-based lending facility in 2024, maintaining minimal near-term maturities, and ample liquidity. The company continues to hedge production with 40% of 2025 oil production hedged at a floor of $65 per barrel.
Negative Updates
Production Challenges in Gulf of America
The work over the Winterfell-3 well was unsuccessful, and Kosmos is evaluating a future sidetrack to access those reserves.
Lower Entitlement Production
Entitlement production for the first quarter was slightly lower than guidance, primarily due to the timing of the GTA ramp-up.
Higher Operating Costs
Operating expenses per barrel of oil equivalent were higher year-on-year, reflecting lower production and higher maintenance in Q1 2025.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of 2025, Kosmos Energy emphasized its focus on cash generation and cost control amid market volatility. Key metrics included a significant reduction in capital expenditures, which fell by over 50% year-on-year, amounting to $86 million. The company also reduced its annual overhead by $25 million and maintained a rolling hedging program, with around 40% of 2025 oil production hedged at a floor of approximately $65 per barrel. Kosmos achieved operational milestones, such as the export of the first LNG cargo from the GTA project, with production ramping up to a contracted sales volume equivalent to 2.45 million tonnes per annum. Additionally, the company plans to drill two Jubilee wells in 2025 and four in 2026, with the goal of delivering further production growth. The financial resilience of the company was bolstered by refinancing activities in 2024, ensuring minimal near-term maturities and ample liquidity.

Kosmos Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kosmos Energy faces financial challenges, including declining revenue, negative profitability, and high leverage. Operational efficiency and cash generation have been pressured, requiring strategic management to enhance stability and growth potential.
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Kosmos Energy's revenue has shown volatility, with a decline in 2024 and 2025 compared to earlier years. The TTM period reflects a negative net income, affecting net profit margins adversely. EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased over time, indicating pressure on operational efficiency. The revenue growth rate has been negative recently, highlighting challenges in maintaining top-line growth.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Kosmos Energy exhibits a high debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting significant leverage, which poses financial risk. The equity ratio shows a low proportion of equity financing, while return on equity has been inconsistent, impacted by fluctuating net income figures. The balance sheet indicates a need for careful management of debt levels to ensure financial stability.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
The company has experienced negative free cash flow in the recent TTM period, indicating challenges in generating surplus cash after capital expenditures. Operating cash flow relative to net income has weakened, reflecting inefficiencies in converting earnings into cash. These factors suggest limited financial flexibility and potential challenges in funding operations or growth initiatives.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.68B1.70B2.25B1.33B804.03M
Gross Profit573.01M866.58M1.34B518.79M-20.31M
EBITDA896.78M930.52M938.11M531.63M175.66M
Net Income189.85M213.52M226.55M-77.84M-411.59M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.31B4.94B4.58B4.94B3.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments84.97M95.34M183.41M131.62M149.03M
Total Debt2.74B2.39B2.23B2.62B2.11B
Total Liabilities4.11B3.91B3.79B4.41B3.43B
Stockholders Equity1.20B1.03B787.85M529.24M440.15M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-255.41M-167.43M321.10M-563.65M-183.45M
Operating Cash Flow678.25M765.17M1.13B374.34M196.15M
Investing Cash Flow-966.06M-994.85M-703.86M-973.38M-345.59M
Financing Cash Flow274.32M141.62M-414.70M624.16M69.86M

Kosmos Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.32
Price Trends
50DMA
1.96
Positive
100DMA
1.94
Positive
200DMA
2.74
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Negative
RSI
61.43
Neutral
STOCH
83.22
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KOS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.09, above the 50-day MA of 1.96, and below the 200-day MA of 2.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KOS.

Kosmos Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$962.25M32.004.24%8.85%4.15%3.91%
66
Neutral
$871.14M
66
Neutral
$698.83M57.131.86%8.26%5.67%-79.53%
63
Neutral
5.88B17.031.38%158.53%33.60%18.24%
61
Neutral
$1.14B4.03-1.15%-11.11%-105.10%
57
Neutral
$1.46B31.18%0.67%-6298.08%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KOS
Kosmos Energy
2.32
-3.21
-58.05%
CLMT
Calumet Specialty Products
16.43
3.03
22.61%
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources
5.40
-0.98
-15.36%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
24.59
0.82
3.45%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
14.96
-6.93
-31.66%

Kosmos Energy Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Kosmos Energy Holds Annual Stockholders Meeting
Neutral
Jun 5, 2025

On June 5, 2025, Kosmos Energy Ltd. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 89.27% of the shares were represented. During the meeting, three Class III directors were elected to serve until 2028, Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and executive officer compensation was approved in a non-binding advisory vote. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its future financial and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (KOS) stock is a Buy with a $4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kosmos Energy stock, see the KOS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 29, 2025