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Vital Energy (VTLE)
NYSE:VTLE
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Vital Energy (VTLE) AI Stock Analysis

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VTLE

Vital Energy

(NYSE:VTLE)

Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(1.17% Upside)
Vital Energy's overall stock score reflects a challenging financial environment with operational difficulties and negative profitability. Despite strong cash flow and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call, the lack of technical data and poor valuation metrics weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Cost Efficiency
Management provided better cost guidance for 2H25, driving free cash flow higher.
Financial Performance
VTLE delivered strong 1Q25 results with DCFPS, EBITDA and FCF exceeding expectations, mainly due to lower overall operating costs.
Valuation
VTLE trades at lower EV/EBITDA multiples compared to its peers, indicating potential valuation upside.
Negative Factors
Debt Concerns
The company's 4Q24 outspend delays debt paydown, raising concerns about how quickly Vital Energy will reduce its debt.
Investor Interest
VTLE remains challenged in the current commodity price environment to attract meaningful investor interest.
Operational Performance
Operational delays and underperformance in a 7-well delineation project have contributed to a lower volume trajectory, which is seen as a disappointment.

Vital Energy (VTLE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vital Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVital Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the United States. The company was formerly known as Laredo Petroleum, Inc. and changed its name to Vital Energy, Inc. in January 2023. Vital Energy, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyVital Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its exploration and production activities. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the pricing of these commodities, which can fluctuate based on market conditions. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refiners, marketers, and other energy companies, as well as potential long-term contracts that provide a stable income. Additionally, VTLE may engage in joint ventures or partnerships with other energy firms, enhancing its operational capabilities and providing additional financial resources. Factors contributing to its earnings include efficient production techniques, cost management strategies, and advantageous positioning in resource-rich areas.

Vital Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -6.93%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong operational and financial performance, with significant improvements in efficiency, cost reductions, and strategic debt reduction initiatives. However, these positives were balanced by challenges such as capital expenditure overruns and a noncash pretax impairment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong EBITDAX and Free Cash Flow
Vital Energy reported consolidated EBITDAX of $338 million and adjusted free cash flow of $36 million for the second quarter.
Operational Efficiency Improvements
Achieved significant improvements in operational efficiency, such as reducing pumping cycle times by 9% and improving drill-out cycle time in the Delaware Basin by 30%.
Record-Setting Drilling Achievements
Drilled the 9 longest wells in the company's history, including the longest lateral ever at 16,515 feet.
Cost Reduction Initiatives
Sustainable cost reductions in lease operating expenses, achieving an average of less than $111 million per quarter over the past three quarters, and a reduction in G&A expenses by nearly 20%.
Debt Reduction Strategy
Closed an additional $6.5 million noncore asset sale, supporting a debt reduction goal of approximately $185 million for the remainder of the year.
Negative Updates
Capital Expenditure Overruns
Capital expenditure for the quarter was $257 million, above the high end of guidance due to accelerated activity and $13 million in drilling cost overruns.
Noncash Pretax Impairment
Recorded a noncash pretax impairment on oil and gas properties, along with a valuation allowance against the federal net deferred tax asset.
Increase in Net Debt
Net debt rose by $8 million due to a reduction in net working capital by $41 million.
Company Guidance
During Vital Energy's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance focused on several key metrics. Vital Energy reported consolidated EBITDAX of $338 million and adjusted free cash flow of $36 million for the second quarter. Despite capital expenditures reaching $257 million, which was above guidance due to an $11 million activity acceleration and $13 million in drilling cost overruns, the company achieved sustainable cost reductions. These include a lease operating expense reduced to less than $111 million per quarter, delivering $25 million in annual incremental cash flow. The company is on track to meet its capital investment guidance midpoint of $875 million for the year. Additionally, Vital Energy anticipates substantial adjusted free cash flow in the second half of 2025, with plans to reduce net debt by approximately $185 million by year-end. The company has hedged 95% of its expected second-half oil production at $69 per barrel, supporting its debt reduction and optimization strategy aimed at building long-term shareholder value.

Vital Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vital Energy's financials show challenges in profitability with negative EBIT and net income, but improvements in cash flow and debt management. The balance sheet reflects better leverage management, and cash flow indicates efficient cash generation despite net losses.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Vital Energy's TTM revenue shows modest growth over the previous annual period. However, substantial negative EBIT and net income indicate ongoing profitability challenges. The company's gross profit margin remains relatively strong, but negative net profit margins highlight difficulties in cost management and achieving profitability.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a significant improvement in the debt-to-equity ratio due to reduced total debt, indicating better leverage management. However, the equity ratio remains moderate, suggesting a balanced asset financing approach. The return on equity has been negatively impacted due to recent net losses.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Vital Energy's cash flow statement displays a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation despite net losses. The free cash flow has shifted to positive in the latest TTM period, suggesting better control over capital expenditures and financing activities, although previous periods showed volatility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.94B1.95B1.55B1.92B1.39B677.19M
Gross Profit1.16B613.25M1.13B1.20B756.92M146.40M
EBITDA413.86M702.71M1.13B1.08B495.24M-538.51M
Net Income-745.50M-173.52M695.08M631.51M145.01M-874.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.10B5.88B5.15B2.73B2.55B1.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments30.19M40.18M14.06M44.44M56.80M48.76M
Total Debt2.40B2.55B1.75B1.14B1.44B1.20B
Total Liabilities2.99B3.18B2.36B1.62B2.04B1.46B
Stockholders Equity2.11B2.70B2.79B1.11B513.78M-21.44M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow898.16M-738.36M-667.97M242.90M-693.88M-7.18M
Operating Cash Flow1.16B1.00B812.96M829.62M496.67M383.39M
Investing Cash Flow-1.78B-1.74B-1.48B-475.95M-796.81M-389.24M
Financing Cash Flow643.64M763.38M632.80M-366.03M308.18M13.75M

Vital Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price15.32
Price Trends
50DMA
17.66
Negative
100DMA
16.89
Negative
200DMA
23.37
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.73
Positive
RSI
40.30
Neutral
STOCH
33.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTLE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.95, below the 50-day MA of 17.66, and below the 200-day MA of 23.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VTLE.

Vital Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$976.92M24.316.49%8.60%3.96%29.26%
72
Outperform
$589.63M5.9218.30%5.68%-4.93%-7.56%
67
Neutral
$690.36M21.444.90%8.37%9.54%-42.85%
65
Neutral
$14.86B7.072.76%5.52%4.66%-61.61%
49
Neutral
$592.87M2.02-30.17%5.26%-309.56%
45
Neutral
$357.60M-65.43%-935.70%
$768.08M45.261.92%16.05%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VTLE
Vital Energy
15.32
-20.95
-57.76%
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
26.75
0.30
1.13%
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources
5.26
-0.84
-13.77%
ANNA
AleAnna
4.40
-6.63
-60.11%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
25.30
2.26
9.81%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
14.02
-3.75
-21.10%

Vital Energy Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Vital Energy Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results
Negative
Aug 6, 2025

On August 6, 2025, Vital Energy reported its second-quarter 2025 financial and operating results, revealing a net loss of $582.6 million due to a significant non-cash pre-tax impairment loss on oil and gas properties. Despite this, the company achieved an adjusted net income of $76.1 million and generated $252.3 million in cash flow from operating activities. Vital Energy also reported capital investments of $257 million, exceeding guidance, and successfully reduced operating expenses. The company divested non-core assets in Texas for $6.5 million, allocating proceeds to debt reduction, and continued to streamline operations to enhance returns and strengthen its balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTLE) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the VTLE Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
Vital Energy to Announce Q2 2025 Results Soon
Neutral
Jul 8, 2025

On July 8, 2025, Vital Energy announced plans to release its second-quarter 2025 financial and operating results after market close on August 6, 2025, followed by a conference call on August 7, 2025. This announcement indicates the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and communication with stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTLE) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the VTLE Stock Forecast page.

Other
Vital Energy Releases New Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jun 23, 2025

On June 23, 2025, Vital Energy, Inc. released an investor presentation on their website. The presentation is accessible by navigating through the ‘Investors’ section to ‘News & Presentations’ and then ‘Corporate Presentations.’ The information shared is considered ‘furnished’ and not ‘filed’ under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, thus it is not subject to certain liabilities or incorporated by reference into other filings.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTLE) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the VTLE Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Vital Energy Board Restructures After Lambert’s Resignation
Neutral
May 27, 2025

On May 21, 2025, Lisa M. Lambert announced her resignation from the Board of Directors of Vital Energy, effective May 23, 2025. Her departure was not due to any disagreements with the company. The Board subsequently reduced its size from ten to nine members and made committee adjustments, including John Driver joining the Compensation Committee and William E. Albrecht joining the Nominating and Governance Committee. At the Annual Meeting on May 22, 2025, shareholders elected three Class III directors for a three-year term, ratified Ernst & Young as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTLE) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the VTLE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 14, 2025