Vital Energy (VTLE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $634.62M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.89M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.22
• Revenue Growth: 5.26%
• EPS Growth: -309.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 405
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 2.02
• Shares Outstanding: 38,696,598
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,032,480
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,893,509
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.68
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.54
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.18
• 1Y Price Target: $18.00
• Price Target Upside: 9.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 58 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.50 ▲(6.71% Upside)

Vital Energy's overall stock score reflects a balance of positive strategic initiatives and operational achievements against ongoing financial challenges. The merger with Crescent Energy and positive earnings call sentiment are significant strengths, while profitability and valuation concerns weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

VTLE improved its LOE guidance for 2H25 and lowered G&A expense on a 10% headcount reduction, benefiting free cash flow.

Financial Performance

VTLE delivered strong 1Q25 results with DCFPS, EBITDA and FCF exceeding expectations, mainly due to lower overall operating costs.

Hedging Strategy

The robust hedge book covers approximately 90% of expected oil production for the remainder of the year at an average price of $70.61/bbl, minimizing risk to the 2025 program.

Negative Factors

Commodity Price Environment

VTLE remains challenged in the current commodity price environment to attract meaningful investor interest.

Inflation Impact

Steel and tariff inflation is expected to offset service savings.

Stock Performance

Significant underperformance with a decline of 46.8% YTD and elevated short interest at 25.0%.

Vital Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vital Energy Inc. (VTLE) is an energy company primarily engaged in the exploration, production, and development of oil and natural gas resources. Operating mainly in the United States, the company focuses on leveraging advanced technologies to enhance its extraction processes and maximize energy production. VTLE's portfolio includes a variety of assets located in key resource-rich regions, allowing it to deliver reliable energy while adhering to environmental standards.

How the Company Makes Money

Vital Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its exploration and production activities. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the pricing of these commodities, which can fluctuate based on market conditions. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refiners, marketers, and other energy companies, as well as potential long-term contracts that provide a stable income. Additionally, VTLE may engage in joint ventures or partnerships with other energy firms, enhancing its operational capabilities and providing additional financial resources. Factors contributing to its earnings include efficient production techniques, cost management strategies, and advantageous positioning in resource-rich areas.

Vital Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vital Energy's financial performance is mixed. Strong cash flow generation is offset by challenges in profitability and revenue growth. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, but negative return on equity and net losses highlight operational difficulties.

Income Statement

Vital Energy's income statement shows mixed results. The TTM data reveals a decline in revenue growth rate by 2.36%, and the company is currently operating at a net loss with a negative net profit margin of -38.52%. The gross profit margin remains relatively healthy at 59.69%, but the negative EBIT margin of -18.81% indicates operational challenges. Historical data shows fluctuating revenue growth and profitability, with a significant drop in net income from 2023 to 2024.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a moderate level of financial leverage with a TTM debt-to-equity ratio of 1.14. The equity ratio stands at 41.28%, suggesting a reasonable level of equity financing. However, the return on equity is negative at -28.28%, reflecting recent losses. Historical data shows a trend of increasing debt levels, which could pose a risk if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a positive trend in operating cash flow, with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.12, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has improved significantly with a growth rate of 18.57% in the TTM period. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.78, suggesting that while cash flow is improving, profitability remains a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.94B	1.95B	1.55B	1.92B	1.39B	677.19M
Gross Profit	1.16B	613.25M	1.13B	1.20B	756.92M	146.40M
EBITDA	413.86M	702.71M	1.13B	1.08B	495.24M	-538.51M
Net Income	-745.50M	-173.52M	695.08M	631.51M	145.01M	-874.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.10B	5.88B	5.15B	2.73B	2.55B	1.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	30.19M	40.18M	14.06M	44.44M	56.80M	48.76M
Total Debt	2.40B	2.55B	1.75B	1.14B	1.44B	1.20B
Total Liabilities	2.99B	3.18B	2.36B	1.62B	2.04B	1.46B
Stockholders Equity	2.11B	2.70B	2.79B	1.11B	513.78M	-21.44M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	898.16M	-738.36M	-667.97M	242.90M	-693.88M	-7.18M
Operating Cash Flow	1.16B	1.00B	812.96M	829.62M	496.67M	383.39M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.78B	-1.74B	-1.48B	-475.95M	-796.81M	-389.24M
Financing Cash Flow	643.64M	763.38M	632.80M	-366.03M	308.18M	13.75M

Vital Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 16.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTLE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.14, below the 50-day MA of 16.93, and below the 200-day MA of 22.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VTLE.

Vital Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VTS	77 Outperform	$986.19M	24.54	6.49%	8.52%	3.96%	29.26%
REPX	72 Outperform	$626.66M	6.29	18.30%	5.35%	-4.93%	-7.56%
GRNT	70 Neutral	$699.55M	21.73	4.90%	8.26%	9.54%	-42.85%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.01B	7.39	3.39%	5.33%	4.10%	-61.80%
VTLE	58 Neutral	$634.62M	2.02	-30.17%	―	5.26%	-309.56%
ANNA	45 Neutral	$342.36M	―	-65.43%	―	―	-935.70%
TXO	―	$743.42M	43.80	1.92%	16.58%	―	―

Vital Energy Corporate Events

Vital Energy Announces Merger with Crescent Energy

On August 24, 2025, Vital Energy, Inc. entered into a merger agreement with Crescent Energy Company, involving a complex all-equity transaction. The merger will result in Vital’s shareholders owning approximately 23% of Crescent’s outstanding shares, with Crescent’s shareholders holding the remaining 77%. The merger is structured to include two sequential mergers, with Crescent ultimately becoming the sole member of the surviving entity. The merger is subject to customary conditions, including stockholder approvals and regulatory clearances. The board of directors of Vital has unanimously recommended the merger, citing it as beneficial for the company’s shareholders.

Vital Energy Announces Merger with Crescent Energy

On August 25, 2025, Vital Energy, Inc. announced a merger agreement with Crescent Energy Company, where Crescent will acquire Vital in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $3.1 billion. This merger aims to establish a top 10 independent energy company with a strategy focused on free cash flow and returns, enhancing shareholder value through significant synergies and operational efficiencies. The transaction, which is expected to close by the end of 2025, will result in Crescent shareholders owning 77% and Vital shareholders owning 23% of the combined company, subject to customary closing conditions and approvals.

Vital Energy Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

On August 6, 2025, Vital Energy reported its second-quarter 2025 financial and operating results, revealing a net loss of $582.6 million due to a significant non-cash pre-tax impairment loss on oil and gas properties. Despite this, the company achieved an adjusted net income of $76.1 million and generated $252.3 million in cash flow from operating activities. Vital Energy also reported capital investments of $257 million, exceeding guidance, and successfully reduced operating expenses. The company divested non-core assets in Texas for $6.5 million, allocating proceeds to debt reduction, and continued to streamline operations to enhance returns and strengthen its balance sheet.

Vital Energy to Announce Q2 2025 Results Soon

On July 8, 2025, Vital Energy announced plans to release its second-quarter 2025 financial and operating results after market close on August 6, 2025, followed by a conference call on August 7, 2025. This announcement indicates the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and communication with stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Vital Energy Releases New Investor Presentation

On June 23, 2025, Vital Energy, Inc. released an investor presentation on their website. The presentation is accessible by navigating through the ‘Investors’ section to ‘News & Presentations’ and then ‘Corporate Presentations.’ The information shared is considered ‘furnished’ and not ‘filed’ under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, thus it is not subject to certain liabilities or incorporated by reference into other filings.