Vital Energy (VTLE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $781.18M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: 16.77%
• EPS Growth: -113.49%
• Country: US
• Employees: 405
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 2.37
• Shares Outstanding: 38,768,085
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,304,889
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,275,329
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 3.53
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.48
• 1Y Price Target: $19.22
• Price Target Upside: -10.06% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.00 ▲(2.95%Upside)

Vital Energy's overall score reflects mixed financial performance with strong cash flow management but profitability challenges, compounded by technical indicators signaling overbought conditions and valuation concerns. The positive outcomes from the earnings call, including debt reduction and operational efficiencies, are countered by potential risks such as non-cash impairments and market challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

VTLE delivered strong 1Q25 results with DCFPS, EBITDA and FCF exceeding expectations, mainly due to lower overall operating costs.

Risk Management

The robust hedge book covers approximately 90% of expected oil production for the remainder of the year at an average price of $70.61/bbl, minimizing risk to the 2025 program.

Valuation

VTLE trades at lower EV/EBITDA multiples compared to its peers, indicating potential valuation upside.

Negative Factors

Debt Management

The company's 4Q24 outspend delays debt paydown, raising concerns about how quickly Vital Energy will reduce its debt.

Operational Challenges

Operational delays and underperformance in a 7-well delineation project have contributed to a lower volume trajectory, which is seen as a disappointment.

Production Guidance

Productivity issues at a seven-well package in Upton county lower 2025 oil production guidance to 62.5 – 66.5 mbd versus consensus at 66.8 mbd.

Vital Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vital Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the United States. The company was formerly known as Laredo Petroleum, Inc. and changed its name to Vital Energy, Inc. in January 2023. Vital Energy, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Vital Energy generates revenue through the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, which are sold to refineries, utilities, and other energy consumers. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company's earnings are significantly influenced by global commodity prices, production levels, and operational efficiencies. Additionally, Vital Energy may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to enhance its exploration and production capabilities, further contributing to its revenue.

Vital Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vital Energy shows modest revenue growth but struggles with profitability due to negative EBIT and net income. The balance sheet indicates better debt management, and cash flows have improved significantly, suggesting potential for financial stability.

Income Statement

Vital Energy's TTM revenue shows modest growth over the previous annual period. However, substantial negative EBIT and net income indicate ongoing profitability challenges. The company's gross profit margin remains relatively strong, but negative net profit margins highlight difficulties in cost management and achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a significant improvement in the debt-to-equity ratio due to reduced total debt, indicating better leverage management. However, the equity ratio remains moderate, suggesting a balanced asset financing approach. The return on equity has been negatively impacted due to recent net losses.

Cash Flow

Vital Energy's cash flow statement displays a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio, indicating efficient cash generation despite net losses. The free cash flow has shifted to positive in the latest TTM period, suggesting better control over capital expenditures and financing activities, although previous periods showed volatility.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.98B	1.95B	1.55B	1.92B	1.39B	677.19M
	Gross Profit
1.20B	613.25M	1.13B	1.20B	756.92M	146.40M
	EBIT
-174.02M	-22.55M	559.62M	1.06B	712.96M	-861.73M
	EBITDA
730.24M	702.71M	1.13B	1.08B	495.24M	-538.51M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-126.23M	-173.52M	695.08M	631.51M	145.01M	-874.17M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
28.65M	40.18M	14.06M	44.44M	56.80M	48.76M
	Total Assets
5.71B	5.88B	5.15B	2.73B	2.55B	1.44B
	Total Debt
90.61M	2.55B	1.75B	1.14B	1.44B	1.20B
	Net Debt
61.96M	2.51B	1.74B	1.09B	1.38B	1.15B
	Total Liabilities
3.03B	3.18B	2.36B	1.62B	2.04B	1.46B
	Stockholders Equity
2.68B	2.70B	2.79B	1.11B	513.78M	-21.44M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
757.49M	-738.36M	-667.97M	242.90M	-693.88M	-7.18M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.24B	1.00B	812.96M	829.62M	496.67M	383.39M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.74B	-1.74B	-1.48B	-475.95M	-796.81M	-389.24M
	Financing Cash Flow
156.65M	763.38M	632.80M	-366.03M	308.18M	13.75M

Vital Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 21.37
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTLE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.68, above the 50-day MA of 15.72, and below the 200-day MA of 25.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.53 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 96.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VTLE.

Vital Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CLB	71 Outperform	$562.60M	20.19	11.54%	0.33%	1.32%	-33.17%
GRNT	67 Neutral	$799.79M	65.38	1.86%	7.38%	5.67%	-79.53%
PARR	65 Neutral	$1.22B	3.02	-4.95%	―	-9.25%	-113.66%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.47B	3.50	-4.45%	10.05%	0.81%	-49.42%
PUMP	57 Neutral	$650.48M	―	-16.24%	―	-13.32%	-309.35%
VTLE	56 Neutral	$781.18M	2.02	-4.61%	―	16.77%	-113.49%
TXO		$835.46M	38.14	2.97%	16.00%	―	―

Vital Energy Corporate Events

Vital Energy Board Restructures After Lambert’s Resignation

On May 21, 2025, Lisa M. Lambert announced her resignation from the Board of Directors of Vital Energy, effective May 23, 2025. Her departure was not due to any disagreements with the company. The Board subsequently reduced its size from ten to nine members and made committee adjustments, including John Driver joining the Compensation Committee and William E. Albrecht joining the Nominating and Governance Committee. At the Annual Meeting on May 22, 2025, shareholders elected three Class III directors for a three-year term, ratified Ernst & Young as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and approved executive compensation on an advisory basis.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTLE) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the VTLE Stock Forecast page.

Vital Energy Reports Q1 2025 Financial Results

On May 12, 2025, Vital Energy reported its first-quarter 2025 financial and operating results, highlighting a reduction in total and net debt by $145 million and $133.5 million, respectively, through free cash flow and asset sales. Despite a net loss of $18.8 million due to a non-cash pre-tax impairment loss, the company achieved an adjusted net income of $89.5 million and cash flow from operating activities of $351 million. The company reaffirmed its full-year capital investment and production outlook, emphasizing its focus on generating sustainable efficiency gains and debt reduction. Vital Energy’s hedge position has reduced near-term price risks, and the company remains flexible in adjusting its development plans based on market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTLE) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the VTLE Stock Forecast page.

Vital Energy to Release Q1 2025 Financial Results

Vital Energy, Inc. announced plans to release its first-quarter 2025 financial and operating results on May 12, 2025, followed by a conference call on May 13, 2025, to discuss these results. This announcement may impact stakeholders by providing insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially influencing its market positioning in the energy sector.