Vital Energy (VTLE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $646.12M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 612.61K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.26
• Revenue Growth: 1.85%
• EPS Growth: -333.76%
• Country: US
• Employees: 405
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.52
• Shares Outstanding: 38,689,953
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 533,422
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 612,611
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.42
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.58
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.56
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.53
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -13.87
• 1Y Price Target: $18.00
• Price Target Upside: 7.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): 8.16
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.96B

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $17.00 ▲(1.80% Upside)

Vital Energy's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and profitability. However, the positive sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting strong financial results and operational achievements, provides some optimism. The technical analysis and valuation scores reflect mixed momentum and financial instability, respectively.

Positive Factors

Operational Achievements

Vital Energy's ability to drill longer wells enhances its extraction efficiency and resource utilization, potentially leading to improved production and cost savings over time.

Cost Reduction and Optimization

Effective cost management through renegotiation of service contracts and expense reductions strengthens the company's financial position and supports long-term profitability.

Debt Reduction Strategy

A robust debt reduction plan enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest burdens, contributing to the company's long-term financial health and stability.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue and Profitability

Persistent revenue decline and negative profit margins indicate operational challenges, which could impact Vital Energy's ability to sustain growth and profitability.

Free Cash Flow Challenges

A significant decline in free cash flow growth limits Vital Energy's capacity to invest in growth opportunities and manage financial obligations, posing a risk to long-term operations.

Capital Expenditure Overruns

Exceeding capital expenditure guidance due to cost overruns can strain financial resources and impact future investment capabilities, challenging the company's financial planning.

Vital Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vital Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin of West Texas, the United States. The company was formerly known as Laredo Petroleum, Inc. and changed its name to Vital Energy, Inc. in January 2023. Vital Energy, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Vital Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids produced from its exploration and production activities. The company's revenue model is heavily reliant on the pricing of these commodities, which can fluctuate based on market conditions. Key revenue streams include direct sales to refiners, marketers, and other energy companies, as well as potential long-term contracts that provide a stable income. Additionally, VTLE may engage in joint ventures or partnerships with other energy firms, enhancing its operational capabilities and providing additional financial resources. Factors contributing to its earnings include efficient production techniques, cost management strategies, and advantageous positioning in resource-rich areas.

Vital Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vital Energy is facing financial difficulties with declining revenues and profitability, impacting its financial stability. The income statement shows negative margins, and the cash flow is under pressure from declining profitability. The balance sheet shows reduced leverage but negative return on equity, highlighting operational inefficiencies.

Income Statement

Vital Energy's income statement shows significant volatility. The TTM data reveals a sharp decline in revenue and negative margins, with a net profit margin of -69.28% and an EBIT margin of -35.83%. This is a stark contrast to previous years where the company had positive margins, indicating recent operational challenges. The revenue growth rate is negative, highlighting a downturn in sales. Despite past profitability, the current trajectory suggests financial instability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture. The TTM debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.03, indicating manageable leverage, but this is due to a significant reduction in total debt. However, the return on equity is negative, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is relatively stable, but the overall financial health is compromised by recent losses.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, with a TTM free cash flow growth rate of -96.4%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 2.12, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.78, reflecting challenges in converting income into free cash flow. The cash flow situation is stable but under pressure from declining profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.90B	1.95B	1.55B	1.92B	1.39B	677.19M
Gross Profit	839.10M	613.25M	1.13B	1.20B	756.92M	146.40M
EBITDA	-213.73M	690.34M	1.13B	1.07B	472.94M	-546.65M
Net Income	-1.31B	-173.52M	695.08M	631.51M	145.01M	-874.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.72B	5.88B	5.15B	2.73B	2.55B	1.44B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	14.70M	40.18M	14.06M	44.44M	56.80M	48.76M
Total Debt	2.34B	2.55B	1.75B	1.14B	1.44B	1.20B
Total Liabilities	2.96B	3.18B	2.36B	1.62B	2.04B	1.46B
Stockholders Equity	1.76B	2.70B	2.79B	1.11B	513.78M	-21.44M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	656.42M	-738.36M	-667.97M	242.90M	-693.88M	-7.18M
Operating Cash Flow	1.15B	1.00B	812.96M	829.62M	496.67M	383.39M
Investing Cash Flow	-989.30M	-1.74B	-1.48B	-475.95M	-796.81M	-389.24M
Financing Cash Flow	-165.24M	763.38M	632.80M	-366.03M	308.18M	13.75M

Vital Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VTLE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.62, above the 50-day MA of 16.36, and below the 200-day MA of 18.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VTLE.

Vital Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REPX	77 Outperform	$542.24M	6.03	16.09%	6.16%	-2.43%	-28.19%
GRNT	68 Neutral	$708.74M	18.78	5.76%	8.54%	18.56%	-21.43%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
VTS	64 Neutral	$810.99M	43.84	3.50%	10.28%	6.23%	-64.88%
VTLE	56 Neutral	$646.12M	-0.48	-54.63%	―	1.85%	-333.76%
ANNA	45 Neutral	$262.66M	-9.14	-65.43%	―	―	-935.70%

Vital Energy Corporate Events

Vital Energy Reports Q3 2025 Earnings Amid Merger Plans

Vital Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties in the Permian Basin of West Texas. In its latest earnings report for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, the company highlighted significant financial challenges, including a net loss of $353.5 million, primarily due to a substantial impairment expense of $419.9 million. Despite this, Vital Energy reported total revenues of $420.8 million, driven by oil and natural gas sales, although these figures represented a decline compared to the previous year.

Vital Energy Reports Q3 Loss Amid Impairment Challenges

On November 3, 2025, Vital Energy reported a net loss of $353.5 million for the third quarter of 2025, impacted by a non-cash pre-tax impairment loss on oil and gas properties. Despite this, the company achieved an adjusted net income of $57.6 million and cash flow from operating activities of $286.6 million. The company also reduced its total and net debt and exceeded its production guidance. Vital Energy is in the process of merging with Crescent Energy Company, with a special stockholder meeting scheduled for December 12, 2025, to vote on the transaction. This merger aims to create a premier mid-cap operator, potentially enhancing value for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTLE) stock is a Hold with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the VTLE Stock Forecast page.

Vital Energy Announces Merger with Crescent Energy

On August 24, 2025, Vital Energy, Inc. entered into a merger agreement with Crescent Energy Company, involving a complex all-equity transaction. The merger will result in Vital’s shareholders owning approximately 23% of Crescent’s outstanding shares, with Crescent’s shareholders holding the remaining 77%. The merger is structured to include two sequential mergers, with Crescent ultimately becoming the sole member of the surviving entity. The merger is subject to customary conditions, including stockholder approvals and regulatory clearances. The board of directors of Vital has unanimously recommended the merger, citing it as beneficial for the company’s shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTLE) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the VTLE Stock Forecast page.

Vital Energy Announces Merger with Crescent Energy

On August 25, 2025, Vital Energy, Inc. announced a merger agreement with Crescent Energy Company, where Crescent will acquire Vital in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $3.1 billion. This merger aims to establish a top 10 independent energy company with a strategy focused on free cash flow and returns, enhancing shareholder value through significant synergies and operational efficiencies. The transaction, which is expected to close by the end of 2025, will result in Crescent shareholders owning 77% and Vital shareholders owning 23% of the combined company, subject to customary closing conditions and approvals.

The most recent analyst rating on (VTLE) stock is a Hold with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vital Energy stock, see the VTLE Stock Forecast page.

Vital Energy’s Earnings Call: Strong Performance Amid Challenges

Vital Energy, Inc. recently held its earnings call, where the sentiment was largely positive, highlighting strong operational and financial performance. The company reported significant improvements in efficiency, cost reductions, and strategic debt reduction initiatives. However, these positives were tempered by challenges such as capital expenditure overruns and a noncash pretax impairment.

Vital Energy Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results

Vital Energy, Inc. is an independent energy company based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, specializing in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas properties, primarily in the Permian Basin of West Texas.