Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $716.04M
• Dividend Yield: 5.96%
• Average Volume (3M): 349.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: -2.43%
• EPS Growth: -28.19%
• Country: US
• Employees: 103
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 1.01
• Shares Outstanding: 21,567,429
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 592,146
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 349,909
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.45
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.27
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.09
• 1Y Price Target: $36.00
• Price Target Upside: 8.43% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.05
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $475.62M

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $37.00 ▲(11.45% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/06/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/06/26

The score is driven by strong underlying profitability and a de-risking balance sheet, paired with very attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Earnings-call guidance supports the outlook (2026 oil growth plan, hedging, debt reduction), while the main constraints are less consistent free-cash-flow conversion and stretched near-term technical momentum (overbought signals).

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability

Sustained high margins in 2025 (net ~41%, EBITDA ~45%) indicate the core upstream business generates strong earnings per barrel. Durable profitability supports self-funding of development, dividends and buybacks over the next 2–6 months and provides resilience to price swings.

Improving Leverage and Liquidity

Material debt reduction and modest revolver usage materially lower financial leverage (debt/EBITDAX ~1.0x pro forma). This improved balance-sheet flexibility supports disciplined capital allocation, enables the $100M buyback and preserves capacity to fund the $200M 2026 program without stressing liquidity.

Cost Reductions and Improving Development Efficiency

Meaningful declines in drilling/completion and operating costs improve margin sustainability and lower the capital intensity per new well. These structural cost gains increase returns on reinvestment, help maintain dividend/buyback capacity, and make growth plans more cash-efficient over coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Weaker Free Cash Flow and Conversion

A significant YoY decline in total free cash flow and only moderate FCF conversion signals less consistent cash generation. Over the next several months this constrains retained capital for reinvestment or balance-sheet repair and increases reliance on asset sales or higher leverage to fund growth or distributions.

Permian Gas and NGL Takeaway Constraints

Structural takeaway and basis constraints in the Permian depressed gas and NGL realizations, creating persistent weakness in a non-oil revenue stream. If these midstream bottlenecks persist, realized prices and netbacks could remain impaired, reducing multi-commodity cash flow durability.

Reduced Drilling Activity and Timing Risk

Lower 2025 drilling and fewer wells turned to sales create near-term production timing risk and increase reliance on legacy production. This can produce volatility in volumes and cash flow over the next 2–6 months, complicating delivery of the 2026 growth plan if well turn schedules slip.

Riley Exploration Permian Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Texas and New Mexico. The company's activities are primarily focused on the San Andres Formation, a shelf margin deposit on the Central Basin Platform and Northwest Shelf. Its acreage is primarily located on contiguous blocks in Yoakum County, Texas; and Lea and Roosevelt Counties, New Mexico. As of September 30, 2021, the company had approximately 31,352 net acres and a total of 77 net producing wells. Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Riley Exploration Permian generates revenue primarily through the exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates its own wells and typically sells its produced hydrocarbons to various third-party purchasers, including refineries and marketers. Key revenue streams include the sale of produced oil and gas volumes at prevailing market prices, which can fluctuate based on global supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, REPX may benefit from hedging activities that protect against price volatility. Significant partnerships with midstream companies also help in transporting and processing its production, ensuring access to markets and optimizing earnings. The company’s focus on efficient operations and cost management further enhances its profitability in a competitive environment.

Riley Exploration Permian Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability (2025 net margin ~41%, EBITDA margin ~45%) and improving leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.39 in 2025). Offsets include softer 2025 revenue, cyclical sensitivity, and weaker free-cash-flow consistency (FCF down vs. 2024; ~41% of net income).

Income Statement

Profitability is strong in the most recent annual period (2025) with net margin around 41% and EBITDA margin around 45%, and net income improving versus 2024. Revenue has softened slightly in 2025 after growth in 2022–2024, showing some top-line volatility typical for the sector. The multi-year trend is positive versus 2020–2021 (loss-making years), but the recent revenue decline and margin variability keep this from scoring higher.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.39 in 2025 from ~0.54 in 2024 and ~0.86 in 2023, alongside a growing equity base. Returns on equity are solid (~25% in 2025), indicating good profitability relative to capital. The main watch-out is that debt has risen materially versus 2022 levels, so while balance-sheet risk is reasonable, it is not minimal.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains healthy with operating cash flow of ~$213M in 2025 and positive free cash flow (~$86M). However, free cash flow declined versus 2024 and free cash flow conversion is moderate (free cash flow is ~41% of net income in 2025), suggesting heavier reinvestment and/or working-capital swings. Operating cash flow still exceeds net income in 2025, but coverage weakened meaningfully from 2024, pointing to less consistent cash conversion year over year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	391.98M	410.18M	375.05M	321.74M	151.04M
Gross Profit	181.88M	234.03M	220.87M	237.45M	93.93M
EBITDA	234.46M	223.50M	252.53M	182.81M	-4.15M
Net Income	160.84M	88.90M	111.59M	118.01M	-65.67M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.17B	993.50M	945.71M	515.29M	396.17M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	17.89M	13.12M	15.32M	13.30M	8.32M
Total Debt	247.85M	277.17M	362.00M	60.61M	67.53M
Total Liabilities	535.34M	482.89M	524.12M	181.85M	158.33M
Stockholders Equity	634.24M	510.62M	421.60M	333.45M	237.84M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	86.25M	116.35M	65.89M	42.03M	25.59M
Operating Cash Flow	212.54M	246.27M	207.19M	170.29M	86.08M
Investing Cash Flow	-145.77M	-147.84M	-469.56M	-128.26M	-55.74M
Financing Cash Flow	-62.01M	-100.63M	264.38M	-37.05M	-14.94M

Riley Exploration Permian Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 33.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.95, above the 50-day MA of 28.23, and above the 200-day MA of 26.74, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.52 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REPX.

Riley Exploration Permian Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REPX	78 Outperform	$716.04M	3.47	28.09%	5.96%	-2.43%	-28.19%
SD	77 Outperform	$622.71M	6.13	14.41%	3.19%	29.52%	41.02%
EGY	66 Neutral	$561.95M	-9.15	-8.46%	7.20%	-23.00%	-68.20%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
GRNT	65 Neutral	$680.99M	25.18	5.74%	9.36%	18.56%	-21.43%

Riley Exploration Permian Corporate Events

Riley Exploration Permian Appoints Experienced Independent Board Member

On February 6, 2026, Riley Exploration Permian announced that seasoned oil and gas executive Bobby Saadati had been appointed as an independent member of its board of directors, effective February 4, 2026. Saadati, currently CEO of IKAV Energy USA and formerly chairman of Aera Energy and a director at California Resources Corporation, brings extensive experience in energy investing, operations, mergers and acquisitions, and managing large portfolios of producing assets and gas processing plants, which the company’s leadership expects will bolster board expertise and support its strategy to enhance long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (REPX) stock is a Buy with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Riley Exploration Permian stock, see the REPX Stock Forecast page.

Riley Exploration Permian Completes Major Midstream Asset Divestiture

On December 3, 2025, Riley Exploration Permian, through its wholly owned subsidiary Riley Exploration – Permian, LLC, completed the sale of all membership interests in its midstream subsidiary Dovetail Midstream, LLC and related midstream infrastructure in Eddy County, New Mexico, to Targa Northern Delaware LLC for approximately $111 million in cash, subject to customary adjustments, with a second closing on December 24, 2025 for additional compressor station assets for about $10 million plus $1.4 million in reimbursed capital improvements. The company has provided unaudited pro forma condensed consolidated financial statements showing the impact of the transaction, including derecognition of the divested midstream assets, recognition of the resulting gain under applicable accounting guidance, and application of sale proceeds to pay down its revolving credit facility, illustrating a shift toward a more streamlined balance sheet and a more focused upstream portfolio.

The most recent analyst rating on (REPX) stock is a Buy with a $30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Riley Exploration Permian stock, see the REPX Stock Forecast page.

Riley Permian Announces $100M Share Buyback Program

On December 15, 2025, Riley Permian’s Board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $100 million over 24 months, allowing the company to buy back shares through various transactions. This initiative is part of Riley Permian’s strategy to return capital to shareholders and reflects confidence in its operational performance and financial strength, following the closure of a midstream sale.

The most recent analyst rating on (REPX) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Riley Exploration Permian stock, see the REPX Stock Forecast page.