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Riley Exploration Permian (REPX)
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Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) AI Stock Analysis

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REPX

Riley Exploration Permian

(NYSE MKT:REPX)

Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$30.00
▲(12.57%Upside)
Riley Exploration Permian's strong financial performance and strategic acquisitions support a positive outlook. While technical indicators are neutral, the stock's attractive valuation and strategic moves in earnings provide a balanced growth opportunity with some caution due to leverage and market volatility.

Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Riley Exploration Permian Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRiley Exploration Permian, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Texas and New Mexico. The company's activities are primarily focused on the San Andres Formation, a shelf margin deposit on the Central Basin Platform and Northwest Shelf. Its acreage is primarily located on contiguous blocks in Yoakum County, Texas; and Lea and Roosevelt Counties, New Mexico. As of September 30, 2021, the company had approximately 31,352 net acres and a total of 77 net producing wells. Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyRiley Exploration Permian generates revenue through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids extracted from its properties. The company employs horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies to maximize output from its wells in the Permian Basin. Revenue is primarily driven by the volume of hydrocarbons produced and sold, as well as prevailing market prices for these commodities. REPX may also engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to share costs, enhance production capabilities, or expand its asset base, contributing to its revenue streams. Additionally, the company may hedge a portion of its production to lock in prices and mitigate the risks associated with market volatility.

Riley Exploration Permian Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 8.60%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflected strong strategic moves with the acquisition of Silverback Exploration and demonstrated financial and operational efficiency. However, there were concerns about market volatility, production decline, and capital expenditure cuts. Despite these challenges, the company's emphasis on strategic growth and safety metrics highlighted a balanced approach.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisition of Silverback Exploration
Riley Permian announced the acquisition of Silverback Exploration for $142 million, which includes 47,000 net working interest acres in New Mexico. This acquisition enhances Riley Permian's long-term upstream development potential and adds over 300 gross incremental undeveloped horizontal locations to its inventory.
Record Safety Metrics
Riley achieved a total recordable incident rate of 0 for the first quarter of 2025, with 93% safe days, marking a record percentage of safe days in a quarter for the company.
Operational Efficiency and Cost Reduction
Despite no new wells being added, Riley maintained relatively flat production while lowering operating costs. LOE per BOE for Q1 2025 was $8.34, a 2% reduction from Q4 2024 and an 8% reduction from the same quarter last year.
Strong Financial Management
The company generated $54 million of operating cash flow, converting to $39 million of upstream free cash flow. They reduced debt by $21 million quarter-over-quarter to 0.9x leverage.
Negative Updates
Quarter-over-Quarter Production Decline
Net production slightly declined from 1.46 million to 1.41 million barrels of oil quarter-over-quarter in Q1, although it increased 9% compared to the same quarter last year.
Market Volatility and Reduced CapEx
Due to lower realized prices and forward strip, the company decided to adjust down its 2025 CapEx by 50%, including a 41% reduction in upstream CapEx and a 71% reduction in midstream CapEx.
Challenges in Infrastructure Development
Riley is facing challenges with service costs and inflation, although they report some average cost compression. The company is keeping a close watch on tariffs and expects potential cost impacts.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, Riley Exploration Permian demonstrated strong capital efficiency, generating significant free cash flow and reducing debt. Notably, they announced the acquisition of Silverback Exploration for $142 million in cash, which includes approximately 47,000 net working interest acres in New Mexico. This acquisition adds over 300 gross incremental undeveloped horizontal locations to their inventory. The company achieved a total recordable incident rate of 0, with 93% safe days reported. Net production slightly declined to 1.41 million barrels of oil from the previous quarter's 1.46 million, although it increased by 9% compared to the same quarter last year. Their average daily net production stood at 15,620 barrels of oil per day and 24,430 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Operating costs were reduced, with LOE per BOE down 2% from the previous quarter to $8.34. The company prioritized their acquisition strategy, maintaining a robust hedging profile, with 70% of forecasted PDP volumes hedged at a $67 downside price for 2025. They reduced their 2025 capital investments by 50%, including upstream CapEx by 41%, while maintaining modest production impact, with oil guidance down only 4%.

Riley Exploration Permian Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Riley Exploration Permian demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth and efficient operations. The company has stable EBIT and EBITDA margins, and a solid equity position despite a noticeable increase in leverage.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Riley Exploration Permian shows strong revenue growth with a 29% increase from 2022 to 2023 and consistent gross profit margins above industry averages. The TTM data indicates stable EBIT and EBITDA margins at 37.1% and 57.3% respectively, showcasing robust operational efficiency. However, net profit margins have slightly declined to 23.9% TTM, suggesting rising expenses or tax burdens.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a healthy equity position with an equity ratio of 53.5% TTM, indicating strong financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has increased from 0.17 to 0.48, highlighting potential leverage risks. However, return on equity remains solid at 18.6% TTM, suggesting efficient use of shareholder funds.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Riley Exploration Permian demonstrates strong cash flow generation with a 92% increase in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.44 TTM indicates excellent cash conversion efficiency. However, capital expenditures remain high, impacting free cash flow despite the growth.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Sep 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue410.18M375.05M321.74M151.04M4.91M
Gross Profit234.03M220.87M237.45M93.93M797.00K
EBITDA223.50M252.53M307.13M89.62M217.00K
Net Income88.90M111.59M118.01M-46.87M-436.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets993.50M945.71M515.29M388.23M8.92M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.12M15.32M13.30M17.07M3.06M
Total Debt277.17M356.94M56.00M60.00M143.00K
Total Liabilities482.89M524.12M181.85M166.54M2.57M
Stockholders Equity510.62M421.60M333.45M221.69M6.35M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow116.35M65.89M42.03M25.59M-213.00K
Operating Cash Flow246.27M207.19M170.29M86.08M226.00K
Investing Cash Flow-147.84M-469.56M-128.26M-55.74M-233.00K
Financing Cash Flow-100.63M264.38M-37.05M-14.94M-53.00K

Riley Exploration Permian Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price26.65
Price Trends
50DMA
26.67
Negative
100DMA
26.51
Negative
200DMA
28.73
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Negative
RSI
49.61
Neutral
STOCH
54.06
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REPX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.52, below the 50-day MA of 26.67, and below the 200-day MA of 28.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.06 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for REPX.

Riley Exploration Permian Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$583.39M5.8920.43%5.74%1.25%-5.58%
75
Outperform
$397.63M6.7911.83%6.65%3.02%-8.43%
67
Neutral
$15.27B9.946.24%5.21%4.47%-70.67%
64
Neutral
$701.45M56.701.86%8.22%5.67%-79.53%
61
Neutral
$385.58M5.9414.68%4.19%-15.94%2.90%
59
Neutral
$726.13M2.02-4.61%16.77%-113.49%
$828.34M37.562.97%15.36%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
26.65
-0.04
-0.15%
VTLE
Vital Energy
18.58
-24.46
-56.83%
SD
SandRidge Energy
10.32
-2.35
-18.55%
EGY
Vaalco Energy
3.76
-2.78
-42.51%
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources
5.33
-0.92
-14.72%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
15.12
-2.36
-13.50%

Riley Exploration Permian Corporate Events

M&A Transactions
Riley Exploration Permian Completes $142M Acquisition
Neutral
Jul 2, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. completed its acquisition of Silverback Exploration II, LLC, which holds oil and gas assets in Eddy County, New Mexico. The acquisition, valued at approximately $142 million, was funded through the company’s credit facility and cash on hand, potentially impacting the company’s operations and market positioning in the Permian Basin.

The most recent analyst rating on (REPX) stock is a Buy with a $49.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Riley Exploration Permian stock, see the REPX Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Riley Exploration Permian Holds Annual Stockholder Meeting
Neutral
May 12, 2025

On May 9, 2025, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. held its annual meeting where stockholders voted on three proposals. All six director nominees were elected for a one-year term, BDO USA, P.C. was ratified as the independent auditor for 2025, and it was decided to hold annual advisory votes on executive compensation. These decisions reinforce the company’s governance and operational strategies, potentially impacting its stakeholder relations and market confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (REPX) stock is a Buy with a $49.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Riley Exploration Permian stock, see the REPX Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Riley Exploration Permian Acquires Silverback Exploration II
Positive
May 7, 2025

On May 3, 2025, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. announced a securities purchase agreement to acquire Silverback Exploration II, LLC for approximately $142 million. This acquisition, expected to close in the third quarter of 2025, will add significant production capacity and undeveloped locations to Riley Permian’s portfolio. The company reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with $50 million in operating cash flow and a reduction in debt by $21 million. Despite market volatility, Riley Permian is optimistic about the acquisition’s long-term benefits, including enhanced upstream development potential and support for its gas midstream infrastructure investments in New Mexico.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2025