Riley Exploration Permian (REPX)
:REPX
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Riley Exploration Permian
(REPX)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$46.00
â–²(17.29% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/08/26
The score is driven primarily by strong technical momentum and very attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Financial performance is fundamentally solid but tempered by revenue softness and weaker free-cash-flow conversion, while the latest earnings call was constructive on 2026 growth, efficiency, and capital returns but highlighted ongoing gas-price/realization and cash-flow headwinds.
Positive Factors
Production Growth
Sustained oil-volume growth and sequential quarterly gains reflect effective development and operational execution. Durable production increases expand the revenue base, improve per‑unit fixed cost absorption, and underpin medium‑term cash flow generation as the company brings new wells online and develops out Silverback and New Mexico inventory.
Negative Factors
Gas/NGL Realizations & Takeaway Constraints
Structural regional takeaway constraints and weak in‑basin gas netbacks materially depress gas and NGL receipts, lowering overall commodity realization. For a Permian E&P with mixed liquids and gas output, prolonged takeaway bottlenecks can durably reduce margins, cash flow and the value of associated gas volumes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production Growth
Sustained oil-volume growth and sequential quarterly gains reflect effective development and operational execution. Durable production increases expand the revenue base, improve per‑unit fixed cost absorption, and underpin medium‑term cash flow generation as the company brings new wells online and develops out Silverback and New Mexico inventory.
Read all positive factors
Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$845.87M
Dividend Yield5.96%
Average Volume (3M)426.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.5
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth-2.43%
EPS Growth-28.19%
CountryUS
Employees103
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.01
Shares Outstanding21,567,429
10 Day Avg. Volume318,890
30 Day Avg. Volume426,567
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio6.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.51
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.50Price Target Upside5.81% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)6.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$512.68M
Riley Exploration Permian Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Texas and New Mexico. The company's activities are pr...
How the Company Makes Money
REPX primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—from its operated and non-operated wells in the Permian Basin. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are delivered/sold to purchasers (e.g., cru...
Riley Exploration Permian Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong operational progress (notably production growth, New Mexico outperformance, cost reductions, a successful acquisition, debt reduction and a disciplined 2026 growth plan) and robust safety and liquidity metrics. Key near-term negatives included reduced drilling activity in 2025 (fewer wells turned), weak in‑basin gas and NGL realizations due to takeaway constraints, a material YoY decline in total free cash flow, and some expected near-term operating cost increases (water disposal). Management articulated flexibility—notably hedging, a conservative pace with short rig contracts, and a $200M CapEx plan emphasizing first‑half activity—mitigating some downside risk. Overall, the positives (production gains, efficiency and balance-sheet improvements, clear growth plan) outweigh the headwinds, but the company faces meaningful short‑term cash‑flow and gas‑price challenges.Positive Updates
Production Growth — Quarter and Full Year
Q4 oil production rose by ~1,700 bbl/d (+9% QoQ) and was up 26% vs. Q4 2024; full year 2025 oil production increased 15% YoY and total equivalent production rose 29% YoY.
Negative Updates
Reduced Activity and Lower Wells Turned to Sales
2025 development activity was down: drilled 18 net wells (‑28% YoY) and turned ~16.3 net wells to sales (‑23% YoY), resulting in lower near-term new-well contributions and reliance on pre‑2025 development for growth.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Growth — Quarter and Full Year
Q4 oil production rose by ~1,700 bbl/d (+9% QoQ) and was up 26% vs. Q4 2024; full year 2025 oil production increased 15% YoY and total equivalent production rose 29% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Riley guided to >20% year‑over‑year oil volume growth in 2026 with a drilling plan of 46–53 gross wells (≈37%–43% net), a $200 million CapEx program with >2/3 of spending in H1 (particularly large Q2) and a rig cadence of two rigs for ~3 months through May, one rig in summer, potentially zero in fall and one later in the year; they’re ~70% hedged of midpoint oil volumes (weighted‑average downside ≈ $60/bbl, 36% as collars), authorized a $100 million buyback (152k shares repurchased at $26.54), reduced debt by $120 million to $255 million (credit facility 28% utilized, trailing debt/EBITDAX ~1.0x pro forma 0.9x), and stressed flexibility to moderate activity to protect the dividend; operating targets and efficiencies include Q4 adjusted EBITDAX of $66 million (margin up to 63%), Q4 accrual CapEx $50 million, 27% conversion of OCF to upstream FCF ($17 million upstream, $1 million total), and drill/complete cost improvements (D&C cost/ft down ~25% in Red Lake and ~15% in Texas), while New Mexico production (now 34% of company oil) and the Silverback asset continue to outperform (Silverback ~65% higher year‑end oil rate than modeled).Riley Exploration Permian Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 391.98M | 410.18M | 375.05M | 321.74M | 151.04M |
| Gross Profit | 181.88M | 234.03M | 220.87M | 237.45M | 93.93M |
| EBITDA | 234.46M | 223.50M | 252.53M | 182.81M | -4.15M |
| Net Income | 160.84M | 88.90M | 111.59M | 118.01M | -65.67M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.17B | 993.50M | 945.71M | 515.29M | 396.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.89M | 13.12M | 15.32M | 13.30M | 8.32M |
| Total Debt | 247.85M | 277.17M | 362.00M | 60.61M | 67.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 535.34M | 482.89M | 524.12M | 181.85M | 158.33M |
| Stockholders Equity | 634.24M | 510.62M | 421.60M | 333.45M | 237.84M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 86.25M | 116.35M | 65.89M | 42.03M | 25.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 212.54M | 246.27M | 207.19M | 170.29M | 86.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -145.77M | -147.84M | -469.56M | -128.26M | -55.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -62.01M | -100.63M | 264.38M | -37.05M | -14.94M |
Riley Exploration Permian Technical Analysis
Positive
39.22
Price Trends
31.51
Positive
28.90
Positive
27.58
Positive
Market Momentum
2.02
Negative
72.29
Negative
87.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.68, above the 50-day MA of 31.51, and above the 200-day MA of 27.58, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.29 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REPX.
Riley Exploration Permian Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $845.87M | 3.47 | 28.09% | 5.96% | -2.43% | -28.19% | |
77 Outperform | $562.69M | 7.56 | 14.41% | 3.19% | 29.52% | 41.02% | |
69 Neutral | $622.42M | -9.15 | -8.46% | 7.20% | -23.00% | -68.20% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $748.04M | 25.18 | 3.86% | 9.36% | 18.56% | -21.43% |
* Energy Sector Average
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
39.22
14.61
59.34%
SD
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15.28
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60.03%
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5.97
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85.92%
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5.69
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TXO
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12.50
-2.46
-16.47%
Riley Exploration Permian Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Riley Exploration Permian Appoints Experienced Independent Board Member
Positive
Feb 6, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Riley Exploration Permian announced that seasoned oil and gas executive Bobby Saadati had been appointed as an independent member of its board of directors, effective February 4, 2026. Saadati, currently CEO of IKAV Energy USA...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.