Riley Exploration Permian Inc (REPX)
XASE:REPX
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Riley Exploration Permian
(NYSE MKT:REPX)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
â–²(19.51% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong growth and manageable leverage, but weaker cash conversion and lower margins/returns versus prior peaks) and a constructive technical uptrend. The earnings call adds support via raised production guidance and strong execution, while valuation is tempered by a negative P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Production Growth Guidance
Management’s raised 2026 production midpoint (30% YoY) indicates durable reserve development and scale-up of operated volumes. Sustained production growth expands the revenue base, improves per‑unit operating leverage, and supports longer-term cash flow generation and reinvestment optionality across 2026–2027.
Negative Factors
Weakened Earnings Quality and Margins
Material margin and ROE declines versus recent peaks signal more cyclical returns and reduced profitability per dollar of revenue. Persistent margin compression would constrain retained earnings and make long-term shareholder returns and capital reinvestment more contingent on higher commodity prices or structural cost improvements.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Production Growth Guidance
Management’s raised 2026 production midpoint (30% YoY) indicates durable reserve development and scale-up of operated volumes. Sustained production growth expands the revenue base, improves per‑unit operating leverage, and supports longer-term cash flow generation and reinvestment optionality across 2026–2027.
Read all positive factors
Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$837.46M
Dividend Yield5.96%
Average Volume (3M)453.16K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth-2.30%
EPS Growth-41.12%
CountryUS
Employees103
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.87
Shares Outstanding21,695,948
10 Day Avg. Volume452,410
30 Day Avg. Volume453,161
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio6.47
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.26
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.00Price Target Upside34.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)5.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$582.24M
Riley Exploration Permian Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Texas and New Mexico. The company's activities are pr...
How the Company Makes Money
REPX primarily makes money by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs—from its operated and non-operated wells in the Permian Basin. Revenue is generated when produced volumes are delivered/sold to purchasers (e.g., cru...
Riley Exploration Permian Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational execution (production above guidance, record drilling and completion efficiency), disciplined capital deployment (below-guidance spend, debt reduction, shareholder returns) and an upgraded growth outlook including 30% full-year production growth. Counterbalancing items include a GAAP net loss primarily from unrealized derivative mark-to-market losses, negative gas/NGL revenues (-$11M) from midstream constraints, and some inflationary cost pressures. Management highlighted optionality, pipeline-driven sequencing in New Mexico, and that many losses are unrealized and should reverse as production hedges roll into realized revenue.Positive Updates
Production Beat and Raised Full-Year Growth Guidance
Q1 production exceeded the high end of guidance: net oil averaged 20.2 M barrels per day and total equivalent production averaged 35.6 MBOE per day. Company raised full-year production midpoint to 22,500 bpd, representing 30% year-over-year growth and a 5% increase to full-year guidance midpoint.
Negative Updates
Large GAAP Net Loss Driven by Mark-to-Market Derivative Losses
Reported GAAP net loss of $70M in Q1 driven by a $127M loss on derivatives, 91% of which was unrealized. Management notes this mark-to-market volatility will likely reverse over time as hedged production is delivered.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Beat and Raised Full-Year Growth Guidance
Q1 production exceeded the high end of guidance: net oil averaged 20.2 M barrels per day and total equivalent production averaged 35.6 MBOE per day. Company raised full-year production midpoint to 22,500 bpd, representing 30% year-over-year growth and a 5% increase to full-year guidance midpoint.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management raised its 2026 plan, guiding Q2 accrual CapEx of $80M and increasing full‑year accrual CapEx midpoint by $10M to $210M (60/40 H1/H2 weighting) while raising full‑year production midpoint 5% to 22,500 bbl/d (about 30% YoY growth) with production expected to grow each quarter and oil volumes weighted 45/55 H1/H2; the company expects a reinvestment rate of ~65–70% of operating cash flow, is ~67% hedged for the balance of the year, and discussed a scenario to grow ~10% in 2027 with only ~5% higher CapEx. In Q1 Riley drilled 15.6 net wells, started completions on 12.8, turned 8 wells to sales, produced ~20.2 thousand bbl/d of oil and ~35.6 thousand BOE/d total, spent $47M accrual ($31M cash), generated operating cash flow of $47M ($55M before working capital), reported adjusted EBITDAX $61M and a GAAP net loss of $70M (driven by a $127M derivative mark‑to‑market loss), returned $12M to shareholders ($8.4M dividends, $4M buybacks), reduced debt by $8M, and plans 2 rigs with 16–18 completions in Q2 (≈30% more than Q1) and 42–48 net wells for the year.Riley Exploration Permian Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 403.40M | 391.98M | 410.18M | 375.05M | 321.74M | 151.04M |
| Gross Profit | 205.23M | 181.88M | 234.03M | 220.87M | 237.45M | 93.93M |
| EBITDA | 249.47M | 234.46M | 223.50M | 252.53M | 182.81M | -4.15M |
| Net Income | 61.77M | 160.84M | 88.90M | 111.59M | 118.01M | -65.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.18B | 1.17B | 993.50M | 945.71M | 515.29M | 396.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 15.81M | 17.89M | 13.12M | 15.32M | 13.30M | 8.32M |
| Total Debt | 240.68M | 255.01M | 277.17M | 362.00M | 60.61M | 67.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 626.64M | 535.34M | 482.89M | 524.12M | 181.85M | 158.33M |
| Stockholders Equity | 553.44M | 634.24M | 510.62M | 421.60M | 333.45M | 237.84M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 67.07M | 86.25M | 116.35M | 65.89M | 42.03M | 25.59M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 209.33M | 212.54M | 246.27M | 207.19M | 170.29M | 86.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -149.18M | -145.77M | -147.84M | -469.56M | -128.26M | -55.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -53.21M | -62.01M | -100.63M | 264.38M | -37.05M | -14.94M |
Riley Exploration Permian Technical Analysis
Positive
33.47
Price Trends
35.93
Positive
31.86
Positive
28.99
Positive
Market Momentum
0.89
Negative
57.22
Neutral
57.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For REPX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.47 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.41, below the 50-day MA of 35.93, and above the 200-day MA of 28.99, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for REPX.
Riley Exploration Permian Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $564.85M | 8.03 | 15.09% | 3.19% | 25.58% | 18.12% | |
69 Neutral | $837.46M | -2.70 | 10.69% | 5.96% | -2.30% | -41.12% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
55 Neutral | $728.07M | -4.08 | -5.33% | 9.36% | 10.07% | -369.16% | |
54 Neutral | $596.36M | -1.76 | -31.67% | 7.20% | -36.31% | -346.60% |
* Energy Sector Average
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
38.60
13.67
54.85%
SD
SandRidge Energy
15.30
5.86
62.06%
EGY
Vaalco Energy
5.72
2.62
84.69%
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources
5.52
0.23
4.39%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
13.71
<0.01
0.05%
Riley Exploration Permian Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Riley Exploration Permian Shareholders Expand Equity Incentive Plan
Positive
May 13, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Riley Exploration Permian stockholders approved a second amendment and restatement of the company’s 2021 Long Term Incentive Plan, increasing the total shares available for issuance from 2,337,022 to 5,137,022, signaling an ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.