Vaalco Energy (EGY)
NYSE:EGY
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Vaalco Energy
(NYSE:EGY)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(3.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by the sharp TTM deterioration in revenue and profitability and rising leverage, despite still-positive operating and free cash flow. Offsetting that, the latest earnings call conveyed improving operational momentum and raised 2026 production/sales guidance with near-term catalysts, while technicals are mixed-to-soft and valuation is supported mainly by the dividend but constrained by loss-driven negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Despite accounting losses, the business is producing meaningful operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, providing durable capacity to fund maintenance and growth capex, service debt and pay a small dividend. This cash generation cushions earnings volatility and supports execution of multi-year development plans.
Negative Factors
Earnings Volatility
A sharp TTM deterioration in revenue and a large net loss indicate earnings and margin volatility tied to timing, one-offs and commodity exposure. Persistent negative margins erode retained capital, limit reinvestment and make long-term planning harder unless operational gains offset cyclic risks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Despite accounting losses, the business is producing meaningful operating cash flow and positive free cash flow, providing durable capacity to fund maintenance and growth capex, service debt and pay a small dividend. This cash generation cushions earnings volatility and supports execution of multi-year development plans.
Read all positive factors
Vaalco Energy (EGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$554.65M
Dividend Yield7.2%
Average Volume (3M)1.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth-36.31%
EPS Growth-346.60%
CountryUS
Employees230
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.37
Shares Outstanding104,258,255
10 Day Avg. Volume1,131,435
30 Day Avg. Volume1,445,860
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio-8.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.18
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.95Price Target Upside68.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$423.48M
Vaalco Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas. The company holds Etame production sharing contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore in the Republic of ...
How the Company Makes Money
Vaalco primarily makes money by producing hydrocarbons (mainly crude oil) from its operated and non-operated upstream assets and selling that production into the market. Revenue is largely driven by: (1) production volumes attributable to Vaalco’s...
Vaalco Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Operationally the quarter delivered multiple material positives — FPSO refurbishment completed on schedule, high‑impact Gabon well results, expanded operator positions in Côte d’Ivoire with meaningful resource upside, increased 2026 production and sales guidance (8%–12%) and clear Q2 sales improvement (midpoint ~44% higher than Q1). Financials were impacted in Q1 by large hedging mark‑to‑market losses ($71M), an exploration charge for an unsuccessful well ($22.4M), and working capital/timing effects that produced a sizeable net loss ($93.7M) and modest unrestricted cash ($48M). Management communicated a confident outlook with several near‑term catalysts (two partner liftings in Gabon in Q2, Côte d’Ivoire restart in June, additional Egyptian drilling) and reduced expected exploration spend in Q2 (~90% lower than Q1). Given the strong operational momentum and upgraded guidance that appear likely to drive improved cash flow, coupled with the view that many of the large Q1 charges were timing/mark‑to‑market or one‑time exploration items, the positives outweigh the near‑term financial headwinds.Positive Updates
Operational Production Upside from Gabon Wells
Etame development wells brought strong initial production: 15H-8 online in late Feb at ~2,000 gross bbl/d; 14H-8 online in late Apr with an initial rate of ~4,850 gross bbl/d and 325 meters of lateral net pay. These wells are expected to materially boost Q2 production (two months of production from 14H-8) and support increased full-year guidance.
Negative Updates
Large Net Loss Driven by Derivative and Exploration Charges
Reported net loss of $93.7M in Q1 2026, driven by $71M in derivative losses (including ~$56M unrealized mark‑to‑market) and $22.4M in exploration expense (including write‑off of unsuccessful West Etame well). Realized hedge losses in Q1 were ~$15M.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Operational Production Upside from Gabon Wells
Etame development wells brought strong initial production: 15H-8 online in late Feb at ~2,000 gross bbl/d; 14H-8 online in late Apr with an initial rate of ~4,850 gross bbl/d and 325 meters of lateral net pay. These wells are expected to materially boost Q2 production (two months of production from 14H-8) and support increased full-year guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
VAALCO raised full‑year 2026 production and sales NRI guidance by roughly 8%–12% and provided Q2 targets of 21.6–23.8k working‑interest BOE/d (16.8–18.7k NRI BOE/d) with Q2 NRI sales of 16.8–18.3k BOE/d (midpoint ~44% higher than Q1), an expected year‑end exit rate of ~25k–27k bbl/d, and Q2 production costs of $26–$31 per NRI BOE; they forecast Q2 CapEx of $110–$130m (Q1 cash CapEx was $78.1m, accrual $73.3m) with ~$6m of capitalized interest in Q2 while keeping full‑year CapEx guidance unchanged, expect Q2 exploration expense of $2–$3m (versus $22.4m in Q1), Q2 cash G&A $7–$9m (Q1 cash G&A $6.9m), Baobab FPSO restarting production in June with sales in Q3, two partner liftings in Gabon in Q2, and noted hedge/financing metrics (56% of Q1 barrels hedged, $15m realized and $56m unrealized derivative losses in Q1; RBL borrowing base $300m with $152m drawn, unrestricted cash $48m).Vaalco Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 343.42M | 359.27M | 478.99M | 455.07M | 354.33M | 199.07M |
| Gross Profit | 70.07M | 82.20M | 172.45M | 186.61M | 193.52M | 96.76M |
| EBITDA | 40.06M | 156.59M | 286.56M | 276.54M | 173.49M | 101.03M |
| Net Income | -142.98M | -41.39M | 57.78M | 60.35M | 51.89M | 81.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 920.66M | 913.38M | 954.95M | 823.22M | 855.64M | 263.09M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 48.04M | 58.90M | 82.65M | 121.11M | 37.20M | 48.67M |
| Total Debt | 240.33M | 128.44M | 98.17M | 90.80M | 89.06M | 10.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 575.76M | 469.69M | 453.37M | 344.43M | 389.54M | 118.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 344.90M | 443.50M | 501.58M | 478.78M | 466.11M | 144.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -27.00M | -43.22M | 10.72M | 126.37M | -31.05M | 11.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 140.74M | 212.67M | 113.72M | 223.60M | 128.85M | 50.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -249.72M | -255.89M | -102.12M | -97.22M | -123.21M | -39.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 108.14M | 12.38M | -43.05M | -56.82M | -17.95M | -57.00K |
Vaalco Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
5.32
Price Trends
5.96
Negative
5.37
Negative
4.51
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.16
Positive
33.01
Neutral
4.98
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EGY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.87, below the 50-day MA of 5.96, and above the 200-day MA of 4.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.98 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EGY.
Vaalco Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $534.21M | 7.11 | 15.09% | 3.19% | 25.58% | 18.12% | |
68 Neutral | $636.44M | 10.04 | 23.90% | 6.49% | -23.34% | -29.24% | |
67 Neutral | $213.52M | 20.89 | 23.24% | ― | 1533.93% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
54 Neutral | $554.65M | -3.81 | -31.67% | 7.20% | -36.31% | -346.60% | |
| ― | $185.50M | -239.72 | -61.04% | ― | -99.80% | -170.31% | |
56 Neutral | $726.23M | -13.09 | -4.26% | ― | -22.88% | -107.96% |
* Energy Sector Average
EGY
Vaalco Energy
5.22
2.23
74.41%
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ANNA
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Vaalco Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Vaalco Highlights Q1 2026 Results and Production Outlook
Positive
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Vaalco Energy reported first-quarter 2026 results marked by heavy capital spending of $78.1 million to advance its Gabon Phase Three drilling program, refurbish and return the Baobab FPSO in Côte d’Ivoire, and prepare fo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Vaalco Energy Reports 2025 Results, Details Growth Plans
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Vaalco Energy reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 12, 2026, showing production and sales volumes above increased guidance but a full-year net loss of $41.4 million and adjusted net loss of $4.0 million. The company gene...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Vaalco Energy Divests Canadian Assets to Refocus Portfolio
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Vaalco Energy’s Canadian subsidiary agreed to sell substantially all of its Canadian land assets and related liabilities, acquired in its October 2022 TransGlobe business combination, to Petrus Resources for about C$35 m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.