Vaalco Energy (EGY)
NYSE:EGY
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Vaalco Energy
(NYSE:EGY)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(31.58% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/22/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong cash flow and a relatively solid balance sheet partially offset by a sharp revenue decline and a swing to losses. Earnings-call guidance and identified operational catalysts (with hedging support) add confidence, while technical signals are broadly neutral and valuation is constrained by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, meaningful operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for maintenance, growth drilling and debt service. This enhances financial flexibility, reduces reliance on capital markets, and supports execution of multi-year development plans even through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Revenue and earnings decline
A sharp top-line drop and swing to a net loss indicate operational or price-related pressures that can persist if production disruptions or weaker realizations continue. This earnings volatility undermines consistent retained earnings accumulation and can constrain long-term investment capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent, meaningful operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable internal funding for maintenance, growth drilling and debt service. This enhances financial flexibility, reduces reliance on capital markets, and supports execution of multi-year development plans even through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Vaalco Energy (EGY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$695.40M
Dividend Yield7.2%
Average Volume (3M)1.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth-24.99%
EPS Growth-171.66%
CountryUS
Employees230
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.40
Shares Outstanding104,258,255
10 Day Avg. Volume1,569,318
30 Day Avg. Volume1,850,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)0.85
Price to Sales (P/S)1.05
P/FCF Ratio-8.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.66Price Target Upside62.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$397.10M
Vaalco Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
VAALCO Energy, Inc., an independent energy company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas. The company holds Etame production sharing contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore in the Republic of ...
How the Company Makes Money
Vaalco primarily makes money by producing hydrocarbons (mainly crude oil) from its operated and non-operated upstream assets and selling that production into the market. Revenue is largely driven by: (1) production volumes attributable to Vaalco’s...
Vaalco Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a net positive operational and financial picture: management delivered strong adjusted EBITDAX and cash generation in 2025, materially reduced Egyptian receivables, secured liquidity (RBL), expanded and derisked an attractive West Africa portfolio (operator roles in Kossipo and CI-705), and provided clear catalysts (Baobab FPSO return, Gabon drilling) expected to drive production and value in H2 2026–2027. Key negatives are the Q4 noncash impairment that produced a net loss, modest declines in proved and 2P reserves, one unsuccessful exploration well in Gabon, higher per-barrel costs, and larger-than-expected FPSO refurbishment costs that increase near-term CapEx. Overall, the positives (cash flow, reserve value increases in PV‑10, portfolio growth and execution track record) outweigh the temporary and mostly one-time negatives, supporting a constructive outlook as growth programs come online.Positive Updates
Strong adjusted EBITDAX and operating cash flow
Generated $173.4M adjusted EBITDAX in 2025 and $212.7M net cash from operating activities for the full year; over $750M adjusted EBITDAX generated over the past 3 years.
Negative Updates
Q4 impairment and net loss
Q4 2025 net loss of $58.6M ($0.56/sh) driven primarily by a noncash impairment charge of $67.2M related to the sale of Canadian assets; full year 2025 net loss of $41.4M after earlier YTD net income of $17.2M.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong adjusted EBITDAX and operating cash flow
Generated $173.4M adjusted EBITDAX in 2025 and $212.7M net cash from operating activities for the full year; over $750M adjusted EBITDAX generated over the past 3 years.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
VAALCO's 2026 guidance calls for Q1 production of 18,700–20,600 working‑interest (WI) boe/d and 14,200–16,000 net‑revenue‑interest (NRI) boe/d with Q1 NRI sales of 11,200–12,900 boe/d (sales lower than production due to a single Gabon state lifting and the Canadian asset sale through Feb 19); full‑year 2026 production is guided to 20,100–22,400 WI boe/d and 16,100–17,950 NRI boe/d with full‑year NRI sales of 14,900–18,050 boe/d. 2026 CapEx is forecast at $290–360 million (Q1 CapEx $90–110M), including ~$3M capitalized interest in Q1 and $22–24M capitalized interest for the year; expected operating expense is roughly in line with 2025 at $23.50–$31.00 per NRI boe (2025 was $24.89/boe and $158M absolute), exploration expense is $30–35M for 2026 with most in Q1 (Q1 midpoint ~ $29M), and the company assumes a baseline Brent of ~$65/bbl. Additional financial metrics: hedges cover ~50% of 2026 production with collars ~ $65 floor, the RBL has a current commitment of $255M (expandable toward $300M) with $60M drawn at year‑end 2025 and further draws expected in Q1, the company expects five optimized liftings in 2026 (one every other month beginning April), and management projects exit WI production of roughly 25,000–26,000 boe/d after the 2026 drilling programs and Baobab FPSO restart (Baobab back online in Q2; one Baobab well expected in full production by year‑end).Vaalco Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Mar 2023 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 359.27M | 478.99M | 455.07M | 354.33M | 199.07M |
| Gross Profit | 82.20M | 172.45M | 186.61M | 193.52M | 96.76M |
| EBITDA | 156.59M | 286.56M | 276.54M | 173.49M | 101.03M |
| Net Income | -41.39M | 57.78M | 60.35M | 51.89M | 81.84M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 913.38M | 954.95M | 823.22M | 855.64M | 263.09M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 58.90M | 82.65M | 121.11M | 37.20M | 48.67M |
| Total Debt | 128.44M | 98.17M | 90.80M | 89.06M | 10.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 469.69M | 453.37M | 344.43M | 389.54M | 118.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 443.50M | 501.58M | 478.78M | 466.11M | 144.30M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -43.22M | 10.72M | 126.37M | -31.05M | 11.05M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 212.67M | 113.72M | 223.60M | 128.85M | 50.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -255.89M | -102.12M | -97.22M | -123.21M | -39.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 12.38M | -43.05M | -56.82M | -17.95M | -57.00K |
Vaalco Energy Technical Analysis
Neutral
5.32
Price Trends
5.52
Negative
4.70
Positive
4.21
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
37.28
Neutral
12.92
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EGY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 5.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.05, below the 50-day MA of 5.52, and above the 200-day MA of 4.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EGY.
Vaalco Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $585.15M | 6.13 | 14.41% | 3.19% | 32.61% | 12.57% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $695.40M | -1.62 | -8.46% | 7.20% | -24.99% | -171.66% | |
| ― | $212.07M | -576.09 | -20.86% | ― | -99.83% | -107.50% | |
63 Neutral | $629.32M | 3.08 | 16.86% | 6.49% | -25.47% | -47.21% | |
62 Neutral | $814.03M | -12.94 | 5.01% | ― | -22.38% | -61.24% | |
56 Neutral | $248.62M | 205.43 | 5.48% | ― | 1663.04% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
EGY
Vaalco Energy
6.67
3.57
115.23%
SD
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15.89
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78.10%
SJT
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4.55
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GPRK
GeoPark
9.73
3.29
51.16%
GFR
Greenfire Resources
6.49
2.46
61.04%
ANNA
AleAnna
3.73
-7.72
-67.42%
Vaalco Energy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Vaalco Energy Reports 2025 Results, Details Growth Plans
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Vaalco Energy reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 12, 2026, showing production and sales volumes above increased guidance but a full-year net loss of $41.4 million and adjusted net loss of $4.0 million. The company gene...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Vaalco Energy Divests Canadian Assets to Refocus Portfolio
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Vaalco Energy’s Canadian subsidiary agreed to sell substantially all of its Canadian land assets and related liabilities, acquired in its October 2022 TransGlobe business combination, to Petrus Resources for about C$35 m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.