Vaalco Energy (EGY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $357.61M
• Dividend Yield: 7.29%
• Average Volume (3M): 874.21K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: -23.00%
• EPS Growth: -68.20%
• Country: US
• Employees: 230
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 104,258,255
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,016,472
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 874,209
• PEG Ratio: -16.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.90
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.95
• P/FCF Ratio: 42.25
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.81
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.87
• 1Y Price Target: $7.37
• Price Target Upside: 114.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.06
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $344.77M

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(16.62% Upside)

Vaalco Energy's overall score reflects strong earnings call performance and attractive valuation, offset by challenges in technical indicators and financial performance. The company's strategic initiatives and cost efficiencies position it well for future growth, but current market momentum suggests caution.

Positive Factors

Operational Efficiency

Operational efficiency in Egypt allows Vaalco to enhance production without increasing capital expenditure, supporting long-term growth.

Strategic Growth Initiatives

The new drilling program in Gabon is expected to drive significant growth, enhancing production and potentially adding reserves.

Increased Production Guidance

Increasing production guidance reflects confidence in operational capabilities and positions Vaalco for future revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A decline in revenue growth indicates challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact long-term financial stability.

Cash Flow Concerns

Declining free cash flow limits the company's ability to reinvest in growth initiatives and manage debt, affecting financial flexibility.

Delayed Production Projects

Delays in production projects can hinder immediate growth prospects and impact revenue generation in the short to medium term.

Vaalco Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Vaalco Energy, Inc. is an independent oil and gas company headquartered in Houston, Texas, primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. The company operates in the offshore Gabon region and focuses on acquiring and developing oil properties that offer significant upside potential. Vaalco's operations predominantly revolve around oil production, and it aims to deploy advanced technologies to enhance recovery and improve efficiency in its operations.

How the Company Makes Money

Vaalco Energy generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil, which is its main product. The company typically enters into contracts to sell its production to refineries and other purchasers in the market. Revenue is influenced by oil prices, which can fluctuate based on global supply and demand dynamics. Additionally, Vaalco enhances its earnings through strategic partnerships and joint ventures that may provide access to new resources or technologies, and it may also benefit from cost-saving measures and operational efficiencies in its production processes. The company’s diverse portfolio and focus on efficient operations help to stabilize revenue streams even in volatile market conditions.

Vaalco Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Vaalco Energy shows strong profitability with healthy margins, but faces challenges in revenue growth and cash generation. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, though declining ROE suggests potential issues in maximizing shareholder returns.

Income Statement

Vaalco Energy's income statement shows a decline in revenue growth rate at -15.83% TTM, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation. However, the company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 34.08% and a net profit margin of 8.26% TTM, suggesting operational efficiency. The EBIT margin of 24.96% and EBITDA margin of 55.36% TTM reflect strong profitability, though slightly lower than previous periods.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30 TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is 7.68% TTM, which is lower than previous years, suggesting a decrease in profitability relative to equity. The equity ratio stands at 53.22% TTM, reflecting a solid equity base.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -85.26% TTM, raising concerns about cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.89 TTM, indicating adequate cash flow relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.29 TTM suggests limited free cash flow relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	421.83M	478.99M	455.07M	354.33M	199.07M	77.41M
Gross Profit	142.61M	172.45M	186.61M	193.52M	96.76M	20.48M
EBITDA	189.01M	286.56M	276.54M	173.49M	101.03M	14.09M
Net Income	28.46M	57.78M	60.35M	51.89M	81.84M	-48.18M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	950.43M	954.95M	823.22M	855.64M	263.09M	141.23M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.98M	82.65M	121.11M	37.20M	48.67M	47.85M
Total Debt	147.75M	98.17M	90.80M	89.06M	10.23M	22.56M
Total Liabilities	444.56M	453.37M	344.43M	389.54M	118.79M	79.77M
Stockholders Equity	505.87M	501.58M	478.78M	466.11M	144.30M	61.46M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.26M	10.72M	126.37M	-31.05M	11.05M	3.12M
Operating Cash Flow	112.03M	113.72M	223.60M	128.85M	50.12M	27.45M
Investing Cash Flow	-196.76M	-102.12M	-97.22M	-123.21M	-39.06M	-24.33M
Financing Cash Flow	11.82M	-43.05M	-56.82M	-17.95M	-57.00K	-929.00K

Vaalco Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 3.43
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EGY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.49, below the 50-day MA of 3.64, and below the 200-day MA of 3.59, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for EGY.

Vaalco Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SD	72 Outperform	$522.19M	7.92	14.08%	3.24%	29.52%	41.02%
GFR	71 Outperform	$551.78M	3.63	16.30%	―	-21.67%	251.59%
EGY	68 Neutral	$357.61M	12.52	5.65%	7.29%	-23.00%	-68.20%
GPRK	68 Neutral	$363.79M	10.73	16.85%	6.64%	-26.63%	-66.89%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SJT	61 Neutral	$252.62M	―	-10.79%	―	-99.78%	-103.13%
ANNA	45 Neutral	$197.63M	-11.17	-45.51%	―	―	-985.28%

Vaalco Energy Corporate Events

Vaalco Energy Adjusts Guidance After Strong Q3 2025

Vaalco Energy reported its third-quarter 2025 results, highlighting a net income of $1.1 million and an adjusted net loss of $10.3 million. The company achieved production levels at the high end of its guidance and adjusted its full-year production and sales guidance upwards due to strong performance. Vaalco also decreased its capital guidance midpoint by 19% while maintaining production expenses in line with previous guidance. The company is preparing for multiple production-enhancing drilling campaigns, including projects in Côte d’Ivoire and Gabon, and has increased its credit facility to support growth initiatives.