GeoPark (GPRK)
NYSE:GPRK
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GeoPark
(NYSE:GPRK)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(19.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is driven by attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend) and supportive technicals (price above key moving averages with positive MACD), reinforced by a positive earnings-call outlook on costs, liquidity, and Vaca Muerta execution. These positives are tempered by weaker underlying cash generation (near-breakeven/negative TTM free cash flow and poor cash conversion) and still-elevated leverage risk for a cyclical commodity business.
Positive Factors
Vaca Muerta execution & scale-up
Successful drilling and planned factory-mode execution in Loma Jarillosa Este create a scalable unconventional growth engine. If delivered, this materially increases reserves, diversifies production away from Colombia, and provides multi-year volume upside to underpin future cash flow and reinvestment.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage & weak cash conversion
High leverage and near-zero/negative free cash flow limit the company’s ability to self-fund growth or absorb commodity shocks. Weak cash conversion versus earnings raises refinancing and liquidity sensitivity and constrains shareholder returns until internal cash generation consistently improves.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vaca Muerta execution & scale-up
Successful drilling and planned factory-mode execution in Loma Jarillosa Este create a scalable unconventional growth engine. If delivered, this materially increases reserves, diversifies production away from Colombia, and provides multi-year volume upside to underpin future cash flow and reinvestment.
Read all positive factors
GeoPark (GPRK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$629.97M
Dividend Yield6.49%
Average Volume (3M)592.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.6
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth-23.34%
EPS Growth-29.24%
CountryUS
Employees476
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.07
Shares Outstanding64,678,770
10 Day Avg. Volume534,276
30 Day Avg. Volume591,997
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.16
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio-4.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.05
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$551.00M
GeoPark Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GeoPark Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas reserves in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador. As of December 31, 2021, the company had working and/or economic interests in 42 hydrocarbons block...
How the Company Makes Money
GeoPark makes money primarily by producing crude oil (and, to a lesser extent, natural gas and associated liquids) from its operated and non-operated upstream fields and selling those volumes to customers at prices linked to prevailing market benc...
GeoPark Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: production stabilized and improved, revenues and adjusted EBITDA rose strongly QoQ, unit costs declined, liquidity and balance-sheet metrics were strengthened, and execution in Argentina (Vaca Muerta) showed concrete early operational progress with clear ramp targets. The main negatives relate to the company’s sizable hedge position that mutes near-term price upside and could produce material derivative losses if oil stays high, higher taxes/nonrecurring charges that reduced reported net income, and temporary production impacts and elevated water handling needs associated with the Argentina fracking program. Overall, highlights (strong cash/liquidity position, margin expansion, cost reductions, successful Argentina execution and strategic investor support) materially outweigh the lowlights (hedging-related losses and temporary operational impacts), supporting a positive outlook while noting near-term hedging and tax headwinds.Positive Updates
Production in line with guidance and improving
Average production of 27,249 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from Colombia and Argentina, performing within 2026 guidance and higher than Q4 2025; Llanos 123 production increased 13% versus prior quarter; management expects Argentina production to rise from 1,430 boe/d (Q1) to 5,000–6,000 boe/d by December 2026.
Negative Updates
Hedging could generate material derivative losses if prices stay high
Management estimates potential derivative losses in the $60 million to $120 million range if Brent averages in the $80–$90/bbl band for the year, because a significant portion of near-term production is hedged (≈19,000 bpd for 2026).
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production in line with guidance and improving
Average production of 27,249 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from Colombia and Argentina, performing within 2026 guidance and higher than Q4 2025; Llanos 123 production increased 13% versus prior quarter; management expects Argentina production to rise from 1,430 boe/d (Q1) to 5,000–6,000 boe/d by December 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GeoPark said Q1 production averaged 27,249 boe/d (in line with 2026 guidance) and expects Vaca Muerta output to rise from 1,430 boe/d in Q1 to 5,000–6,000 boe/d by December 2026; FY‑2026 CapEx guidance remains $190–220 million (with ~$1.6 billion cited for 2026–28), Q1 investment was $22 million (3.4x EBITDA/CapEx, ROACE 19%), revenues were $128.4 million and adjusted EBITDA $71.3 million (56% margin), operating profit $58 million, net income $20.2 million, realized price $60.4/bbl (Brent $77.9/bbl), operating costs $14.7/bbl and structural costs down to $4/bbl in Q1; cash flow from operations was $32.9 million, cash $274.9 million, net debt $333.1 million (leverage 1.3x) with no principal maturities until Jan 2027, ~19,000 bpd hedged for 2026 and ~11,000 bpd for 2027, and a declared quarterly dividend of $0.023 per share.GeoPark Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 483.54M | 492.52M | 660.84M | 756.63M | 1.05B | 688.54M |
| Gross Profit | 229.14M | 234.27M | 366.14M | 403.37M | 593.11M | 386.78M |
| EBITDA | 173.33M | 219.92M | 409.07M | 372.74M | 533.99M | 267.16M |
| Net Income | 56.78M | 49.67M | 96.38M | 111.07M | 224.44M | 61.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.21B | 1.04B | 1.20B | 1.02B | 973.98M | 895.74M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 274.90M | 100.30M | 296.84M | 133.04M | 128.84M | 101.47M |
| Total Debt | 633.31M | 579.54M | 540.26M | 533.28M | 529.69M | 694.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 916.60M | 794.60M | 996.76M | 840.53M | 858.39M | 957.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 292.50M | 245.80M | 203.29M | 176.02M | 115.58M | -61.95M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.53M | -83.65M | 279.70M | 101.90M | 298.69M | 87.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 94.22M | 14.71M | 471.00M | 300.94M | 467.50M | 216.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -170.82M | -155.50M | -226.85M | -198.59M | -153.70M | -126.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 43.58M | -36.12M | -99.20M | -98.72M | -286.55M | -190.44M |
GeoPark Technical Analysis
Positive
8.82
Price Trends
9.44
Positive
8.80
Positive
7.87
Positive
Market Momentum
0.15
Positive
53.54
Neutral
36.04
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.73, below the 50-day MA of 9.44, and above the 200-day MA of 7.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRK.
GeoPark Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $376.28M | 13.43 | 10.10% | ― | -26.15% | -56.98% | |
68 Neutral | $629.97M | 9.64 | 23.90% | 6.49% | -23.34% | -29.24% | |
67 Neutral | $201.47M | 22.06 | 23.24% | ― | 1533.93% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
56 Neutral | $712.43M | -13.46 | -4.26% | ― | -22.88% | -107.96% | |
54 Neutral | $553.61M | -3.88 | -31.67% | 7.20% | -36.31% | -346.60% |
* Energy Sector Average
GPRK
GeoPark
9.84
3.61
58.02%
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GeoPark Corporate Events
GeoPark Unveils 2025 Sustainability Report as Vaca Muerta Expansion Lifts Growth and Cuts Emissions
May 11, 2026
GeoPark has released its 2025 SPEED/Sustainability Report, detailing how in 2025 it safeguarded core Colombian operations while re-entering a growth phase by moving into the Vaca Muerta shale play in Neuquen, Argentina. The company exceeded its 20...
GeoPark Posts Strong Q1 2026 Results and Bolsters Balance Sheet with Strategic Investment
May 6, 2026
GeoPark reported strong first-quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, with consolidated production averaging 27,249 boepd and sales volumes up 8% versus the prior quarter, supported by higher Brent prices and improved realized pricing. Revenue rose 1...
GeoPark Q1 2026 Profit Jumps on Break-Up Fee Despite Hedging Hit
May 6, 2026
GeoPark reported unaudited interim results for the three months ended March 31, 2026, showing revenue of $128.4 million, down from $137.3 million a year earlier, but operating profit rose to $58.0 million and net profit increased to $20.2 million,...
GeoPark Posts Solid Q1 2026 Output and Ramps Up Vaca Muerta Drilling
Apr 24, 2026
GeoPark reported a solid operational start to 2026 in its April 23 update, with first-quarter consolidated production averaging 27,249 boepd and volumes from continuing operations in Colombia and Argentina rising 1% versus the previous quarter aft...
GeoPark Files 2025 Form 20-F With SEC, Expands Investor Access to Annual Report
Apr 1, 2026
On March 31, 2026, GeoPark announced it had filed its Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing, which includes the company’s audited financial statements, is available...
GeoPark Walks Away From Higher Bid for Frontera’s Colombian Assets, Emphasizes Capital Discipline
Mar 10, 2026
On March 9, 2026, GeoPark announced it would not raise its offer for Frontera Energy’s Colombian exploration and production assets after Frontera’s board deemed a competing bid from Parex Resources a superior proposal. GeoPark’s ...
GeoPark Secures $107 Million Strategic Investment from Grupo Gilinski to Drive Latin American Growth
Mar 6, 2026
On March 5, 2026, GeoPark announced a $107 million private investment in public equity from Colden Investments, an affiliate of Grupo Gilinski, through the issuance of 12,876,053 new shares at $8.31 each, making Colden the company’s largest ...
GeoPark Delivers 2025 Guidance, Resets Portfolio With Vaca Muerta Deal and Frontera Bid in Play
Feb 25, 2026
GeoPark reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 25, 2026, showing that it met or exceeded its 2025 operational guidance despite a materially lower oil price environment and a modest decline in Adjusted EBITDA. The company ke...
GeoPark Rejects Undervalued Bid as Strategic Deals Cement Top Independent Position in Colombia
Feb 23, 2026
On February 23, 2026, GeoPark responded to Parex Resources Inc.’s move to nominate six director candidates for election to GeoPark’s board at the 2026 annual meeting, stressing that shareholders are not required to act at this stage. T...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.