GeoPark (GPRK)
NYSE:GPRK
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GeoPark
(NYSE:GPRK)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(75.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/05/26
The score is mainly constrained by weakened 2025 cash generation (deeply negative free cash flow) and above-average leverage risk for a cyclical producer. Offsetting this are supportive valuation (low P/E and ~4% yield) and a constructive earnings-call outlook highlighting cost discipline, heavy hedging coverage, and credible growth targets, while technical signals remain mixed rather than strongly bullish.
Positive Factors
Extensive production hedging
High hedging coverage (84%+ for 2026 with collars and hedging started for 2027) materially reduces near-term commodity volatility risk, supporting predictable cash flows to fund capex, debt service and dividends. This structural protection increases execution visibility over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Weak 2025 cash generation
A sharp reversal to deeply negative free cash flow signals weaker cash conversion and heavy reinvestment or timing issues. This reduces internal funding for projects, increases reliance on external financing or asset sales, and raises execution risk if commodity or operational headwinds persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Extensive production hedging
High hedging coverage (84%+ for 2026 with collars and hedging started for 2027) materially reduces near-term commodity volatility risk, supporting predictable cash flows to fund capex, debt service and dividends. This structural protection increases execution visibility over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
GeoPark (GPRK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$643.55M
Dividend Yield6.49%
Average Volume (3M)1.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.7
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth-26.63%
EPS Growth-66.89%
CountryUS
Employees476
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.60
Shares Outstanding64,678,770
10 Day Avg. Volume1,048,246
30 Day Avg. Volume1,330,867
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.16
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio-4.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.79
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.38
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.50Price Target Upside75.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$486.09M
GeoPark Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GeoPark Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas reserves in Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, and Ecuador. As of December 31, 2021, the company had working and/or economic interests in 42 hydrocarbons block...
How the Company Makes Money
GeoPark makes money primarily by producing crude oil (and, to a lesser extent, natural gas and associated liquids) from its operated and non-operated upstream fields and selling those volumes to customers at prices linked to prevailing market benc...
GeoPark Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a number of substantive positives: production outperformance and stabilization, meeting or exceeding guidance across key metrics, disciplined capital allocation with strong returns (2.8x EBITDA/CapEx and 18% ROACE), meaningful cost and structural savings, a solid balance sheet with active liability management, extensive hedging for 2026, and transformational portfolio moves (Vaca Muerta acquisition and the agreed Frontera transaction) that materially expand scale and upside. Offsetting these positives were macro and transactional headwinds — notably lower realized prices (-11.4% YoY), Q4 timing-related and start-up costs that depressed quarterly EBITDA, some elevated early-stage OpEx in newly integrated assets, partner approvals lagging in Llanos 34, and competitive/ governance uncertainty around the Frontera deal. Overall, the operational and strategic progress and financial discipline communicated in the call outweigh the transitory and market-driven negatives, though the Frontera process and regional market dynamics warrant monitoring.Positive Updates
Production Outperformance and Stabilization
Full-year 2025 production averaged 28,233 barrels of oil equivalent per day, above the upper end of guidance; Q4 2025 averaged 28,351 boe/d. Management reported an earlier-than-anticipated production inflection and stabilization in Colombia and Argentina, with Vaca Muerta contributing fresh production ahead of plan.
Negative Updates
Lower Realized Prices Year-over-Year
Realized oil price averaged USD 58.1 per boe in 2025 versus USD 65.6 per boe in 2024, a decline of USD 7.5 per boe or approximately -11.4% year-over-year, which materially weighed on full-year financial results.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production Outperformance and Stabilization
Full-year 2025 production averaged 28,233 barrels of oil equivalent per day, above the upper end of guidance; Q4 2025 averaged 28,351 boe/d. Management reported an earlier-than-anticipated production inflection and stabilization in Colombia and Argentina, with Vaca Muerta contributing fresh production ahead of plan.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GeoPark reiterated 2026 cost and performance guidance: operating costs $13–$15/boe and G&A ~ $4/boe, a targeted run‑rate of ~$45M annualized structural savings (building on $32M saved in 2025), and over 84% of 2026 production hedged with 3‑way collars (hedging already started for 2027). Operationally, Vaca Muerta is expected to exit 2026 at 5,000–6,000 boe/d with a planned 20,000 boe/d plateau by 2028, while corporate targets for 2028 are 44,000–46,000 boe/d and adjusted EBITDA of $490–$520M; the announced Frontera acquisition would add ~40,000 boe/d pro forma and could lift combined pro forma production to >90,000 boe/d and adjusted EBITDA to ~US$950M by 2028. The Board declared a $0.03/share quarterly dividend; balance‑sheet/return metrics cited to underpin guidance include cash >$100M, net leverage 1.6x, no material maturities until 2027, 2025 production 28,233 boe/d, realized price $58.1/boe, adjusted EBITDA $277M, CapEx $98M (2.8x EBITDA/CapEx) and ROACE 18%.GeoPark Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
33
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 492.50M | 660.84M | 756.63M | 1.05B | 688.54M |
| Gross Profit | 223.70M | 366.14M | 403.37M | 593.11M | 386.78M |
| EBITDA | 279.50M | 409.07M | 381.26M | 533.99M | 267.16M |
| Net Income | 49.70M | 96.38M | 111.07M | 224.44M | 61.13M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.04B | 1.20B | 1.02B | 973.98M | 895.74M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 100.30M | 296.84M | 133.04M | 128.84M | 101.47M |
| Total Debt | 579.54M | 540.26M | 533.28M | 529.69M | 694.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 794.60M | 996.76M | 840.53M | 858.39M | 957.69M |
| Stockholders Equity | 245.80M | 203.29M | 176.02M | 115.58M | -61.95M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -83.65M | 279.70M | 101.90M | 298.69M | 87.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.71M | 471.00M | 300.94M | 467.50M | 216.78M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -155.50M | -226.85M | -198.59M | -153.70M | -126.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.12M | -99.20M | -98.72M | -286.55M | -190.44M |
GeoPark Technical Analysis
Positive
6.00
Price Trends
8.80
Positive
8.21
Positive
7.43
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
60.10
Neutral
83.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.36, below the 50-day MA of 8.80, and below the 200-day MA of 7.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GPRK.
GeoPark Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $354.94M | 6.52 | 12.19% | ― | -6.03% | -54.59% | |
69 Neutral | $612.00M | -9.15 | -8.46% | 7.20% | -23.00% | -68.20% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $643.55M | 7.68 | 16.86% | 6.49% | -26.63% | -66.89% | |
62 Neutral | $761.20M | 10.14 | 5.01% | ― | -21.67% | 251.59% | |
58 Neutral | $341.27M | 65.04 | 5.48% | ― | ― | -985.28% |
* Energy Sector Average
GPRK
GeoPark
9.91
3.91
65.17%
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GeoPark Corporate Events
GeoPark Files 2025 Form 20-F With SEC, Expands Investor Access to Annual Report
Apr 1, 2026
On March 31, 2026, GeoPark announced it had filed its Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing, which includes the company’s audited financial statements, is available...
GeoPark Walks Away From Higher Bid for Frontera’s Colombian Assets, Emphasizes Capital Discipline
Mar 10, 2026
On March 9, 2026, GeoPark announced it would not raise its offer for Frontera Energy’s Colombian exploration and production assets after Frontera’s board deemed a competing bid from Parex Resources a superior proposal. GeoPark’s ...
GeoPark Secures $107 Million Strategic Investment from Grupo Gilinski to Drive Latin American Growth
Mar 6, 2026
On March 5, 2026, GeoPark announced a $107 million private investment in public equity from Colden Investments, an affiliate of Grupo Gilinski, through the issuance of 12,876,053 new shares at $8.31 each, making Colden the company’s largest ...
GeoPark Delivers 2025 Guidance, Resets Portfolio With Vaca Muerta Deal and Frontera Bid in Play
Feb 25, 2026
GeoPark reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 25, 2026, showing that it met or exceeded its 2025 operational guidance despite a materially lower oil price environment and a modest decline in Adjusted EBITDA. The company ke...
GeoPark Rejects Undervalued Bid as Strategic Deals Cement Top Independent Position in Colombia
Feb 23, 2026
On February 23, 2026, GeoPark responded to Parex Resources Inc.’s move to nominate six director candidates for election to GeoPark’s board at the 2026 annual meeting, stressing that shareholders are not required to act at this stage. T...
GeoPark to Double Scale With US$375 Million Acquisition of Frontera’s Colombian E&P Assets
Jan 30, 2026
On January 29, 2026, GeoPark announced a definitive agreement to acquire Frontera Energy’s Colombian exploration and production assets, housed in Frontera Petroleum International Holdings B.V., for an upfront cash payment of US$375 million p...
GeoPark Extends Vitol Offtake Deal and Secures Up to $500 Million Flexible Funding in Colombia
Jan 28, 2026
On January 28, 2026, GeoPark Limited announced it had renewed and extended its crude offtake and prepayment agreement with trading giant Vitol, covering 100% of GeoPark’s oil production from the Llanos 34, Llanos 123 and CPO-5 blocks in Colo...
GeoPark Beats 2025 Production Guidance, Launches Polymer Project and Streamlines Portfolio
Jan 22, 2026
In an operational update released on January 21, 2026, GeoPark reported that its full-year 2025 oil and gas production averaged 28,233 boepd, exceeding the upper end of its guidance range, driven by strong performance in Colombia’s Llanos 34...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.