GeoPark (GPRK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $363.79M
• Dividend Yield: 6.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 766.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.67
• Revenue Growth: -26.63%
• EPS Growth: -66.89%
• Country: US
• Employees: 476
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 51,309,776
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 806,443
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 766,553
• PEG Ratio: -0.89
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.72
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.47
• 1Y Price Target: $9.50
• Price Target Upside: 58.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.89
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $485.63M

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▲(50.00% Upside)

GeoPark's overall stock score is driven by strong technical indicators and positive earnings call sentiment. While financial performance shows some challenges, particularly with high leverage and declining free cash flow growth, the company's strategic initiatives and operational efficiencies provide a positive outlook. The valuation is reasonable, but the dividend suspension could affect investor sentiment.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisition

The acquisition in Vaca Muerta enhances GeoPark's long-term growth and diversification, strengthening its production capacity and resource base.

Operational Efficiency

Efficient cost management supports profitability and competitiveness, allowing GeoPark to maintain strong margins despite market fluctuations.

Cash Generation Ability

Strong cash generation relative to net income indicates robust financial health, supporting future investments and operational stability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, especially in volatile market conditions, potentially impacting long-term stability.

Declining Revenue Growth

A decline in revenue growth indicates challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could affect long-term profitability and market position.

Dividend Suspension

Dividend suspension may impact investor sentiment and reduce immediate shareholder returns, although it supports long-term investment needs.

GeoPark Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GeoPark Limited is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company headquartered in Santiago, Chile. The company primarily operates in the Latin American region, focusing on the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. GeoPark's core products include crude oil and natural gas, which are extracted from its various concessions in countries such as Colombia, Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. The company is committed to operational excellence and sustainable development practices in its resource extraction activities.

How the Company Makes Money

GeoPark generates revenue primarily through the sale of crude oil and natural gas. The company operates various oil and gas fields where it explores and develops hydrocarbon resources, selling the extracted products to domestic and international markets. Its revenue model is largely based on the pricing of oil and gas, which can be influenced by global market trends, regulatory changes, and production costs. Additionally, GeoPark engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures with other energy companies, which often provide access to new technologies, resources, and potential revenue-sharing arrangements. The company's ability to manage operational efficiency and cost control also plays a significant role in its profitability.

GeoPark Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GeoPark's financial statements reflect challenges in revenue growth and profitability, with high leverage posing potential risks. Operational efficiency remains strong, as evidenced by healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins, but the decline in free cash flow growth and high debt levels could impact future financial flexibility.

Income Statement

GeoPark's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth by 11.16%, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum. Gross profit margin stands at 55.16%, which is healthy but has decreased from the previous year. The net profit margin has also decreased to 7.70%, indicating reduced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 29.53% and 53.38%, respectively, suggesting efficient operational management despite revenue challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.20, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. Return on equity is moderate at 21.26%, showing decent profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio is low, suggesting a reliance on debt financing, which could impact financial stability in volatile market conditions.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth by 27.88%, which is concerning. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.60, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.42, suggesting that a significant portion of net income is converted into free cash flow, but the decline in growth is a potential risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.03B	660.84M	756.63M	1.05B	688.54M	393.69M
Gross Profit	490.07M	366.14M	403.37M	593.11M	386.78M	150.55M
EBITDA	500.89M	409.07M	381.26M	533.99M	267.16M	-12.34M
Net Income	73.44M	96.38M	111.07M	224.44M	61.13M	-232.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.01B	1.20B	1.02B	973.98M	895.74M	960.27M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	197.01M	296.84M	133.04M	128.84M	101.47M	201.94M
Total Debt	596.87M	540.26M	533.28M	529.69M	694.84M	806.93M
Total Liabilities	798.48M	996.76M	840.53M	858.39M	957.69M	1.07B
Stockholders Equity	208.65M	203.29M	176.02M	115.58M	-61.95M	-109.19M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	53.67M	279.70M	101.90M	298.69M	87.52M	93.40M
Operating Cash Flow	311.63M	471.00M	300.94M	467.50M	216.78M	168.70M
Investing Cash Flow	-240.08M	-226.85M	-198.59M	-153.70M	-126.56M	-347.63M
Financing Cash Flow	-59.36M	-99.20M	-98.72M	-286.55M	-190.44M	271.14M

GeoPark Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GPRK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.72, below the 50-day MA of 7.42, and below the 200-day MA of 6.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GPRK.

GeoPark Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PNRG	71 Outperform	$275.42M	16.11	12.07%	―	-6.03%	-54.59%
GFR	71 Outperform	$551.78M	3.58	16.30%	―	-21.67%	251.59%
GPRK	68 Neutral	$363.79M	10.73	16.85%	6.56%	-26.63%	-66.89%
EGY	68 Neutral	$357.61M	12.52	5.65%	7.29%	-23.00%	-68.20%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
BRY	57 Neutral	$253.00M	-2.77	-13.25%	3.68%	-15.69%	-207.52%
ANNA	45 Neutral	$197.63M	-11.83	-45.51%	―	―	-985.28%

GeoPark Corporate Events

GeoPark Unveils 2026 Program to Boost Production and EBITDA

On December 1, 2025, GeoPark Limited announced its 2026 Work Program and medium-term guidelines, which aim to double EBITDA and increase production by over 60% through 2028. The company is focusing on maximizing core production and cash generation in Colombia, particularly in the Llanos 34 block, which has shown a 22% increase in 2P Original Oil in Place. Additionally, GeoPark is accelerating development in the Vaca Muerta region in Argentina, expecting significant production growth by 2028. These strategic initiatives are expected to enhance GeoPark’s long-term production and economic outlook, providing a solid foundation for sustainable free cash flow and shareholder returns.

GeoPark Achieves 430% Reserve Replacement with Strategic Vaca Muerta Acquisitions

On November 24, 2025, GeoPark Limited announced a significant increase in its 2P reserves, achieving a 430% reserve replacement ratio, largely due to strategic acquisitions in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta region. This development has enhanced GeoPark’s asset base, with the Vaca Muerta acquisitions now representing 30% of its total reserves, and underscores the company’s disciplined execution and portfolio optimization efforts. GeoPark’s reserves growth is complemented by stable reserve additions in Colombia, driven by technical revisions and new discoveries, reflecting the company’s strategic focus on building a resilient and diversified portfolio.

GeoPark Limited Reports Decline in Q3 2025 Revenue and Profit

GeoPark Limited reported its financial results for the three-month and nine-month periods ending September 30, 2025, showing a decline in revenue compared to the same periods in 2024. The company experienced a decrease in operating profit and profit before income tax, attributed to higher financial expenses and a drop in revenue. Despite these challenges, GeoPark managed to maintain a positive profit for the period, reflecting its resilience in a competitive industry. The financial results highlight the company’s ongoing efforts to manage costs and optimize operations amid fluctuating market conditions.

GeoPark Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Completes Vaca Muerta Acquisition

GeoPark Limited reported strong operational and financial results for the third quarter of 2025, driven by increased production, stable prices, and disciplined cost management. The company completed the acquisition of the Vaca Muerta operation on October 16, 2025, and has begun workover activities to enhance productivity. GeoPark’s strategic plan aims to sustain a high-margin base in Colombia while scaling growth in Argentina, targeting significant production and EBITDA growth by 2030. The company also announced a revised dividend program and continued its debt reduction efforts, reflecting a robust capital structure and commitment to shareholder returns.

GeoPark Rejects Parex Resources’ Acquisition Proposal

On October 29, 2025, GeoPark Limited’s Board of Directors unanimously rejected an unsolicited acquisition proposal from Parex Resources Inc., which offered an all-cash transaction of $9.00 per share. The Board concluded that the proposal undervalued GeoPark, failing to account for its growth prospects, including a projected 46% increase in production and a 70% increase in adjusted EBITDA by 2028. GeoPark’s recent acquisition in the Vaca Muerta basin, which adds significant recoverable resources and extends its reserve life, underscores its strategic growth plan. The rejection highlights GeoPark’s commitment to executing its strategy and creating long-term value for shareholders.

GeoPark Unveils Strategic Plan and Dividend Update at Investor Day

On October 21, 2025, GeoPark Limited announced its new long-term strategic plan and capital allocation framework at its Investor Day event. The plan includes a focus on disciplined growth, leveraging its operations in Colombia and recent acquisition in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta formation. GeoPark aims to maintain balance sheet strength and generate cash flow surplus. The company also updated its dividend program, planning a total distribution of $6 million over the next year, with a suspension starting in the third quarter of 2026 to accommodate increased capital expenditures. Additionally, GeoPark completed a $100 million debt repurchase program to strengthen its financial position.

GeoPark Acquires Key Assets in Vaca Muerta

On September 25, 2025, GeoPark Limited announced its acquisition of a 100% operated working interest in the Loma Jarillosa Este and Puesto Silva Oeste blocks in the Vaca Muerta formation, Argentina, from Pluspetrol S.A. This strategic move marks GeoPark’s entry into the Vaca Muerta, a renowned unconventional oil and gas play, enhancing its production capacity and reserve base. The acquisition is expected to increase GeoPark’s production to approximately 30,000 boepd by the end of 2025 and contribute significantly to its EBITDA. The transaction is anticipated to close by the end of 2025, with GeoPark planning substantial investments to develop the acquired assets, aiming for a production plateau by 2028.