Greenfire Resources (GFR)
NYSE:GFR
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Greenfire Resources
(NYSE:GFR)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(5.69% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/12/26
The score is driven by strong solvency and reduced leverage, which supports downside protection, but it is held back by weaker 2025 fundamentals (lower revenue, compressed margins, and sharply lower free cash flow) and soft technical momentum (below key short-term moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation is moderately supportive with a low P/E.
Positive Factors
Very low leverage
Very low debt and a sizable equity base materially reduce solvency risk and give management flexibility to weather commodity cycles. This conservative capital structure supports long-term resilience, optionality for selective investment, and downside protection versus more levered peers.
Negative Factors
Revenue decline
A notable revenue decline and sharp gross-margin squeeze point to weaker realized pricing or rising operating costs, reducing durable earnings power. If persistent, these trends will impair cash flow sensitivity to production and require structural cost or marketing fixes to restore margin resilience.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Very low leverage
Very low debt and a sizable equity base materially reduce solvency risk and give management flexibility to weather commodity cycles. This conservative capital structure supports long-term resilience, optionality for selective investment, and downside protection versus more levered peers.
Read all positive factors
Greenfire Resources (GFR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$761.20M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)231.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)0.66
Revenue Growth-21.67%
EPS Growth251.59%
CountryUS
Employees193
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding125,403,564
10 Day Avg. Volume221,972
30 Day Avg. Volume231,555
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.40
Price to Sales (P/S)0.82
P/FCF Ratio19.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.40
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.02
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.08Price Target Upside-17.40% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Greenfire Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Greenfire Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, exploration, and operation of oil and gas properties in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta. The company operates the Tier-1 oil sands assets located in We...
How the Company Makes Money
Greenfire primarily makes money by producing and selling bitumen (heavy crude oil) from its in-situ oil sands operations. Revenue is generated from the sale of produced barrels, with realized pricing typically influenced by heavy-oil benchmarks an...
Greenfire Resources Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Greenfire Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant initiatives to reduce debt and improve financial stability through a recapitalization plan, alongside strong operational performance in hitting production targets. However, challenges with high leverage, sulfur emissions, and flat production projections for 2026 present concerns.Positive Updates
Transformational Recapitalization Plan
Greenfire announced a plan to fully repay all outstanding senior secured notes through a $300 million equity rights offering backed by Waterous Energy Fund, alongside a new $275 million revolving credit facility with Canadian banks, reducing the cost of capital by approximately half.
Negative Updates
High Leverage and Debt Concerns
Greenfire acknowledged having too much leverage due to the current oil price outlook and significant growth capital needs, leading to plans to materially outspend cash flow over the next 2 to 3 years.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformational Recapitalization Plan
Greenfire announced a plan to fully repay all outstanding senior secured notes through a $300 million equity rights offering backed by Waterous Energy Fund, alongside a new $275 million revolving credit facility with Canadian banks, reducing the cost of capital by approximately half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Greenfire Resources Q3 2025 conference call, key guidance was provided on several financial and operational metrics. Greenfire announced a transformational recapitalization plan, aiming to repay all outstanding senior secured notes through a $300 million equity rights offering, fully backstopped by Waterous Energy Fund. Additionally, they secured commitments for an upsized $275 million revolving credit facility, which is expected to be undrawn at closing, positioning Greenfire to be debt-free. For 2025, Greenfire reaffirmed its capital guidance target of $130 million and projected production at the top end of their guidance range, between 15,000 to 16,000 barrels per day. For 2026, the approved capital budget is $180 million, with anticipated bitumen production ranging from 15,500 to 16,500 barrels per day. The company also addressed operational challenges, such as boiler outages and sulfur emission exceedances, with plans for full compliance and capacity restoration by year-end.Greenfire Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 573.87M | 790.95M | 675.97M | 998.85M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 83.53M | 258.19M | 279.47M | 512.74M | 139.44M |
| EBITDA | 58.21M | 213.74M | -1.71M | 188.22M | -709.58K |
| Net Income | 46.65M | 121.41M | -135.67M | 131.70M | -711.62K |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.29B | 1.26B | 1.17B | 1.17B | 1.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 42.02M | 67.42M | 109.53M | 35.36M | 60.87M |
| Total Debt | 6.11M | 338.24M | 390.07M | 255.37M | 325.57M |
| Total Liabilities | 118.71M | 436.04M | 478.48M | 336.49M | 424.19M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.17B | 821.43M | 695.00M | 837.77M | 704.89M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 24.25M | 57.14M | 53.12M | 125.14M | 27.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 134.00M | 144.55M | 86.55M | 164.73M | 31.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -98.42M | -94.41M | -12.10M | -63.75M | -336.53M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -57.13M | -95.43M | 2.00K | -123.64M | 365.61M |
Greenfire Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
6.15
Price Trends
6.10
Positive
5.49
Positive
4.84
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
49.13
Neutral
34.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.32, above the 50-day MA of 6.10, and above the 200-day MA of 4.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GFR.
Greenfire Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $354.94M | 6.52 | 12.19% | ― | -6.03% | -54.59% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $643.55M | 7.68 | 16.86% | 6.49% | -26.63% | -66.89% | |
62 Neutral | $761.20M | 10.14 | 5.01% | ― | -21.67% | 251.59% | |
55 Neutral | $452.28M | -1.61 | 107.62% | 2.41% | -6.92% | -126.24% | |
| ― | $217.66M | -675.44 | -20.86% | ― | -99.78% | -103.13% | |
58 Neutral | $341.27M | 65.04 | 5.48% | ― | ― | -985.28% |
* Energy Sector Average
GFR
Greenfire Resources
6.15
1.71
38.51%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.