Greenfire Resources (GFR) AI Stock Analysis

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Greenfire Resources

(NYSE:GFR)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$5.00

▲(12.61%Upside)

Greenfire Resources' overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and attractive valuation, indicating potential for long-term growth. Technical indicators suggest mixed short-term momentum, but the stock's undervaluation based on the P/E ratio provides a compelling investment case. The absence of earnings call data and notable corporate events does not impact the evaluation significantly.

Greenfire Resources (GFR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$311.82M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)48.71K

Price to Earnings (P/E)2.3

Beta (1Y)1.02

Revenue Growth38.46%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees193

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength55

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.16

Shares Outstanding70,230,000

10 Day Avg. Volume47,061

30 Day Avg. Volume48,709

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio<0.01

Price to Book (P/B)0.51

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio7.59

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$6.75

Price Target Upside52.03% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Greenfire Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreenfire Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, exploration, and operation of oil and gas properties in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta. The company operates the Tier-1 oil sands assets located in Western Canada. It utilizes steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) extraction technology, a thermal oil recovery process to recover bitumen. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes MoneyGreenfire Resources makes money through the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas, which are then sold to markets around the world. The company generates revenue through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products. Key revenue streams include production contracts, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships with other energy companies. Greenfire Resources may also engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and optimize its revenue. Additionally, the company invests in research and development to improve extraction methods and reduce operational costs, thereby enhancing its profitability.

Greenfire Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025

(Q3-2024)

% Change Since: -1.77%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a strong performance in production growth and financial metrics, including a significant turnaround in net income. However, challenges such as an unplanned outage and missing production guidance slightly offset these achievements.

Q3-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Production Increase

Consolidated production increased by 30% year-over-year, reaching 19,125 barrels per day up from 14,678 barrels per day in Q3 2023.

Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Adjusted EBITDA grew by 15% to $53.4 million from $44.4 million in the same quarter last year.

Net Income Turnaround

Net income was $58.9 million, a significant improvement compared to a $138.7 million loss in the same period last year.

Strong Financial Position

Greenfire maintains $87.7 million of available liquidity, consisting of $37.7 million in cash and $50 million of available credit.

Successful Drilling Campaign

The inaugural refill well drilling campaign was successful, and plans are in place to accelerate additional drilling.

Negative Updates

Production Guidance Miss

Annual production for 2024 is anticipated to average 19,500 barrels per day, slightly below the guidance range of 20,000 to 21,000 barrels per day.

Unplanned Outage

An unplanned outage on a steam generator at the Expansion Asset impacted production, despite being safely completed.

Commodity Risk Management Loss

A realized loss of $6.1 million on commodity risk management contracts was reported for the quarter.

Company Guidance

During the Greenfire Resources Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance reflecting several key metrics and milestones. They reported a 30% year-over-year increase in consolidated production, reaching 19,125 barrels per day compared to 14,678 barrels per day in Q3 2023. Despite delays at the Demo Asset, causing annual production to average around 19,500 barrels per day—slightly below their guidance range of 20,000 to 21,000 barrels per day—the company anticipates production growth, reaching approximately 21,375 barrels per day in November 2024. Greenfire plans to increase capital expenditures to $90 million-$100 million, up from $80 million-$90 million, to accelerate drilling at the Expansion Asset. Financially, they generated $53.4 million in adjusted EBITDA, a 15% increase from last year, with net income of $58.9 million, marking a recovery from a $138.7 million loss. The company also reduced its debt by CAD 84.3 million, maintaining strong liquidity with $87.7 million available. Greenfire continues to focus on maximizing shareholder value through strategic reviews and operational efficiencies.

Greenfire Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greenfire Resources presents a mixed financial profile with recent improvements in profitability and cash generation. The income statement shows positive trends in profit margins, and the balance sheet's robust equity position and controlled leverage underpin its financial stability. However, historical volatility in revenue and net income may pose challenges. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory with improved financial metrics in the latest period.

Income Statement

Positive

Greenfire Resources shows a volatile revenue trend with a significant decline in 2023, followed by recovery in 2024. Gross profit margin improved in 2024, increasing to 32.63% from 2023's 41.36% due to better cost management. The company turned its net income from a loss in 2023 to a profit in 2024, reflected in an improved net profit margin of 15.35% in 2024. This shift indicates a positive trajectory in profitability despite historical volatility.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Greenfire Resources indicates a strong equity base with an equity ratio consistently above 50%, showcasing financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio improved slightly to 0.41 in 2024, reflecting effective debt management. ROE improved to 14.78% in 2024, indicating enhanced shareholder returns compared to previous years. Overall, the balance sheet reveals adequate leverage and solid equity position, albeit with some historical fluctuations.

Cash Flow

Positive

Greenfire Resources' cash flow statement shows positive free cash flow growth at 7.57% in 2024, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.19, suggesting strong cash generation relative to net income. Consistent free cash flow generation supports its financial health, though historical cash flow fluctuations pose some risk.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	790.95M	675.97M	948.78M	261.13M	0.00
Gross Profit	258.19M	279.47M	510.92M	139.09M	0.00
EBITDA	213.74M	60.92M	339.31M	71.66M	0.00
Net Income	121.41M	-135.67M	131.70M	661.44M	-360.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.26B	1.17B	1.17B	1.13B	0.00
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	67.42M	109.53M	35.36M	60.87M	0.00
Total Debt	338.24M	390.07M	255.37M	325.57M	0.00
Total Liabilities	436.04M	478.48M	336.49M	424.19M	60.00K
Stockholders Equity	821.43M	695.00M	837.77M	704.89M	-60.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	57.14M	53.12M	125.14M	27.39M	0.00
Operating Cash Flow	144.55M	86.55M	164.73M	31.98M	0.00
Investing Cash Flow	-94.41M	-12.10M	-63.75M	-336.53M	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-95.43M	2.00K	-123.64M	365.61M	0.00

Greenfire Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price4.44

Price Trends

50DMA

4.51

Negative

100DMA

4.95

Negative

200DMA

6.03

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.05

Positive

RSI

41.55

Neutral

STOCH

28.95

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GFR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.44 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.67, below the 50-day MA of 4.51, and below the 200-day MA of 6.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GFR.

Greenfire Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GFR	77 Outperform	$311.82M	2.27	25.10%	―	38.46%	―
EGY	75 Outperform	$395.55M	6.93	11.83%	6.56%	3.02%	-8.43%
PNRG	74 Outperform	$274.76M	7.50	28.43%	―	69.21%	47.13%
GPRK	66 Neutral	$372.00M	4.72	38.79%	8.28%	-14.94%	-25.19%
Sector *	64 Neutral	6.25B	16.29	1.38%	8.40%	33.60%	18.24%
SD	61 Neutral	$408.69M	6.38	14.68%	3.95%	-15.94%	2.90%
CLNE	60 Neutral	$488.37M	―	-30.25%	―	6.50%	-151.25%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GFR

Greenfire Resources

4.36

-2.94

-40.27%

CLNE

Clean Energy Fuels

2.22

-0.22

-9.02%

PNRG

Primeenergy

164.50

49.27

42.76%

SandRidge Energy

10.82

-1.73

-13.78%

EGY

Vaalco Energy

3.86

-2.54

-39.69%

GPRK

GeoPark

7.24

-2.85

-28.25%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 25, 2025