Greenfire Resources (GFR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $683.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 231.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.89
• Revenue Growth: -21.67%
• EPS Growth: 251.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 193
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 125,403,564
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 221,972
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 231,555
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.92
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.31
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.05
• 1Y Price Target: $5.91
• Price Target Upside: 34.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $6.00 ▲(36.99% Upside)

Greenfire Resources demonstrates strong valuation and technical momentum, supported by a solid financial performance. The transformational recapitalization plan and production targets are positive, but challenges with leverage and emissions need addressing.

Positive Factors

High EBITDA margin

A 40.3% EBITDA margin signals durable operational efficiency in thermal in‑situ bitumen recovery. Sustained margins support internal reinvestment, buffer against heavy‑oil price differentials, and improve project economics, helping fund maintenance and expansion without immediate external support.

Balance sheet strengthened — debt-free

Redeeming US$237.5m senior notes and closing an upsized undrawn C$275m revolver materially reduces interest burden and refinancing risk. A debt‑free stance increases financial flexibility to fund capital programs and absorb commodity volatility over the medium term.

Reliable production execution

Hitting the top end of 2025 production guidance reflects consistent base well performance and operational execution. Steady volumes underpin predictable cash flows, enable phased capital allocation, and reduce execution risk for later growth phases in the oil sands portfolio.

Negative Factors

Sharp free cash flow decline

A ~72% decline in free cash flow growth undermines the company’s ability to self‑fund capital intensity in oil sands operations. Weak FCF conversion raises reliance on external capital, increases dilution or leverage risk, and limits cushion for downturns or regulatory spend.

Regulatory and emissions compliance risk

Sulfur exceedances trigger regulator engagement and require capital and operating expenditure for removal systems. Ongoing compliance costs and potential fines or curtailments create structural margin pressure and operational constraints until systems reliably reduce emissions.

High capital intensity and near‑term flat volumes

Management expects to outspend cash flow while funding growth, implying continued reliance on external funding or dilution despite recent refinancing. Combined with expected flat 2026 production, this limits near‑term volume growth and pressures returns on elevated capital deployment.

Greenfire Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greenfire Resources (GFR) is a leading player in the renewable energy sector, specializing in the development and management of sustainable energy solutions. The company focuses on the exploration and production of geothermal energy, alongside innovations in carbon capture technologies. GFR's core products include geothermal energy plants and carbon offset programs aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, catering to both commercial and governmental clients seeking to enhance their sustainability efforts.

How the Company Makes Money

Greenfire Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced from its geothermal energy plants, which are contracted to supply power to utility companies and large-scale industrial clients. Additionally, GFR earns income through carbon offset credits, which can be sold to organizations looking to meet regulatory requirements or enhance their sustainability profiles. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with governmental agencies and private-sector firms to access funding for renewable projects, thereby expanding its operational capacity and revenue potential. Furthermore, GFR might explore research grants and collaborations with research institutions focusing on renewable technologies as a supplementary revenue stream.

Greenfire Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greenfire Resources shows strong profitability margins and a stable balance sheet, with a robust EBITDA margin of 40.30% and a solid equity base. However, negative revenue growth and declining free cash flow growth pose potential risks.

Income Statement

Greenfire Resources shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a strong net profit margin of 28.03% and a healthy EBIT margin of 26.45%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the revenue growth rate is negative at -9.40%, suggesting a decline in sales compared to the previous period. Despite this, the company maintains a robust EBITDA margin of 40.30%, highlighting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Greenfire Resources reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 24.61%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 68.98%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some concerns, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -71.58% in the TTM period, indicating potential cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.42, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.24, pointing to limited free cash flow relative to profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	730.72M	790.95M	675.97M	998.85M	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	335.51M	258.19M	279.47M	512.74M	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	253.79M	213.74M	-1.71M	188.22M	-709.58K	0.00
Net Income	202.37M	121.41M	-135.67M	131.70M	-711.62K	-360.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.29B	1.26B	1.17B	1.17B	1.13B	0.00
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.98M	67.42M	109.53M	35.36M	60.87M	0.00
Total Debt	323.45M	338.24M	390.07M	255.37M	325.57M	0.00
Total Liabilities	398.48M	436.04M	478.48M	336.49M	424.19M	60.00K
Stockholders Equity	886.99M	821.43M	695.00M	837.77M	704.89M	-60.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.41M	57.14M	53.12M	125.14M	27.39M	0.00
Operating Cash Flow	94.72M	144.55M	86.55M	164.73M	31.98M	0.00
Investing Cash Flow	-86.60M	-94.41M	-12.10M	-63.75M	-336.53M	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-97.38M	-95.43M	2.00K	-123.64M	365.61M	0.00

Greenfire Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 4.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.03, below the 50-day MA of 4.88, and above the 200-day MA of 4.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GFR.

Greenfire Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GFR	71 Outperform	$683.45M	4.43	16.30%	―	-21.67%	251.59%
PNRG	71 Outperform	$299.35M	17.51	12.07%	―	-6.03%	-54.59%
GPRK	68 Neutral	$435.11M	12.83	16.85%	6.49%	-26.63%	-66.89%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SJT	61 Neutral	$281.98M	-1,025.42	-10.79%	―	-99.78%	-103.13%
WTI	50 Neutral	$322.85M	-2.20	―	2.41%	-6.92%	-126.24%
ANNA	48 Neutral	$178.05M	-10.65	-45.51%	―	―	-985.28%

Greenfire Resources Corporate Events

Greenfire Resources Wipes Out Debt After Fully Subscribed C$300 Million Rights Offering

On December 19, 2025, Greenfire Resources Ltd. completed a major refinancing initiative, highlighted by a C$300 million rights offering to eligible shareholders that closed on December 16 and was fully subscribed, resulting in the issuance of 55,147,055 common shares at C$5.44 (US$3.85) per share and increasing the total shares outstanding to 125,404,146. Using the net proceeds from this offering together with cash on hand, the company redeemed its US$237.5 million 12% senior secured notes due 2028 and simultaneously increased its revolving senior credit facility with a syndicate of Canadian banks to C$275 million, leaving Greenfire debt-free as of December 19, 2025 and signaling a significantly strengthened balance sheet, reduced interest burden, and improved financial flexibility for shareholders and lenders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GFR) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenfire Resources stock, see the GFR Stock Forecast page.

Greenfire Resources Completes Fully Subscribed C$300 Million Rights Offering, Redeems High-Coupon Notes and Becomes Debt-Free

On December 19, 2025, Greenfire Resources Ltd. announced it had completed a fully subscribed C$300 million rights offering to existing shareholders, issuing 55,147,055 common shares at C$5.44 (US$3.85) per share and bringing total shares outstanding to 125,404,146. The company used the net proceeds, together with cash on hand, to redeem in full its US$237.5 million 12% senior secured notes due 2028, and simultaneously closed an upsized US$275 million revolving credit facility with a syndicate of Canadian banks, which remains undrawn, leaving Greenfire debt-free and with expanded liquidity to support its operations and growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (GFR) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenfire Resources stock, see the GFR Stock Forecast page.