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Greenfire Resources (GFR)
NYSE:GFR
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Greenfire Resources
(NYSE:GFR)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(6.80% Upside)
Greenfire Resources' overall stock score is driven by its strong valuation, indicating potential undervaluation. However, financial performance concerns, particularly negative revenue and free cash flow growth, moderate the score. Technical indicators suggest stability but lack strong momentum.
Greenfire Resources (GFR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$358.88M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)40.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.4
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth-11.62%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees193
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding70,230,000
10 Day Avg. Volume22,795
30 Day Avg. Volume40,549
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.67
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.65Price Target Upside9.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Greenfire Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGreenfire Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, exploration, and operation of oil and gas properties in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta. The company operates the Tier-1 oil sands assets located in Western Canada. It utilizes steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) extraction technology, a thermal oil recovery process to recover bitumen. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyGreenfire Resources makes money through the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas, which are then sold to markets around the world. The company generates revenue through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products. Key revenue streams include production contracts, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships with other energy companies. Greenfire Resources may also engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and optimize its revenue. Additionally, the company invests in research and development to improve extraction methods and reduce operational costs, thereby enhancing its profitability.
Greenfire Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025
(Q3-2024)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong performance in production growth and financial metrics, including a significant turnaround in net income. However, challenges such as an unplanned outage and missing production guidance slightly offset these achievements.Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Production Increase
Consolidated production increased by 30% year-over-year, reaching 19,125 barrels per day up from 14,678 barrels per day in Q3 2023.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth
Adjusted EBITDA grew by 15% to $53.4 million from $44.4 million in the same quarter last year.
Net Income Turnaround
Net income was $58.9 million, a significant improvement compared to a $138.7 million loss in the same period last year.
Strong Financial Position
Greenfire maintains $87.7 million of available liquidity, consisting of $37.7 million in cash and $50 million of available credit.
Successful Drilling Campaign
The inaugural refill well drilling campaign was successful, and plans are in place to accelerate additional drilling.
Negative Updates
Production Guidance Miss
Annual production for 2024 is anticipated to average 19,500 barrels per day, slightly below the guidance range of 20,000 to 21,000 barrels per day.
Unplanned Outage
An unplanned outage on a steam generator at the Expansion Asset impacted production, despite being safely completed.
Commodity Risk Management Loss
A realized loss of $6.1 million on commodity risk management contracts was reported for the quarter.
Company Guidance
During the Greenfire Resources Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance reflecting several key metrics and milestones. They reported a 30% year-over-year increase in consolidated production, reaching 19,125 barrels per day compared to 14,678 barrels per day in Q3 2023. Despite delays at the Demo Asset, causing annual production to average around 19,500 barrels per day—slightly below their guidance range of 20,000 to 21,000 barrels per day—the company anticipates production growth, reaching approximately 21,375 barrels per day in November 2024. Greenfire plans to increase capital expenditures to $90 million-$100 million, up from $80 million-$90 million, to accelerate drilling at the Expansion Asset. Financially, they generated $53.4 million in adjusted EBITDA, a 15% increase from last year, with net income of $58.9 million, marking a recovery from a $138.7 million loss. The company also reduced its debt by CAD 84.3 million, maintaining strong liquidity with $87.7 million available. Greenfire continues to focus on maximizing shareholder value through strategic reviews and operational efficiencies.Greenfire Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Greenfire Resources demonstrates strong profitability margins and a stable balance sheet. However, negative revenue growth and declining free cash flow growth are potential risks that need addressing.Income Statement
Greenfire Resources shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a strong net profit margin of 28.03% and a healthy EBIT margin of 26.45%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the revenue growth rate is negative at -9.40%, suggesting a decline in sales compared to the previous period. Despite this, the company maintains a robust EBITDA margin of 40.30%, highlighting operational efficiency.65
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Greenfire Resources reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 24.61%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 68.98%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.70
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows some concerns, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -71.58% in the TTM period, indicating potential cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.42, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.24, pointing to limited free cash flow relative to profitability.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 722.02M | 790.95M | 652.26M | 948.78M | 261.13M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 299.46M | 258.19M | 142.89M | 510.92M | 139.09M | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | 290.96M | 213.74M | 60.92M | 218.30M | 41.04M | 0.00 |
| Net Income | 202.37M | 121.41M | -135.67M | 131.70M | 661.44M | -360.00K |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.29B | 1.26B | 1.17B | 1.17B | 1.13B | 0.00 |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 69.98M | 67.42M | 109.53M | 35.36M | 60.87M | 0.00 |
| Total Debt | 323.45M | 338.24M | 390.07M | 255.37M | 325.57M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 398.48M | 436.04M | 478.48M | 336.49M | 424.19M | 60.00K |
| Stockholders Equity | 886.99M | 821.43M | 695.00M | 837.77M | 704.89M | -60.00K |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 22.41M | 57.14M | 53.12M | 125.14M | 27.39M | 0.00 |
| Operating Cash Flow | 94.72M | 144.55M | 86.55M | 164.73M | 31.98M | 0.00 |
| Investing Cash Flow | -86.60M | -94.41M | -12.10M | -63.75M | -336.53M | 0.00 |
| Financing Cash Flow | -97.38M | -95.43M | 2.00K | -123.64M | 365.61M | 0.00 |
Greenfire Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
5.15
Price Trends
4.67
Positive
4.60
Positive
5.36
Negative
Market Momentum
0.10
Positive
61.27
Neutral
69.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.97, above the 50-day MA of 4.67, and below the 200-day MA of 5.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GFR.
Greenfire Resources Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | 282.47M | 11.55 | 17.89% | ― | 22.97% | -19.37% | |
67 Neutral | $358.88M | 2.44 | 25.41% | ― | -11.62% | ― | |
65 Neutral | 338.64M | 7.82 | 47.41% | 9.39% | -25.23% | -56.59% | |
61 Neutral | 272.66M | -1,665.71 | 0.00% | ― | -99.72% | -101.28% | |
53 Neutral | 268.49M | -2.40 | 108.78% | 2.20% | -11.53% | -342.58% | |
45 Neutral | 348.05M | -12.03 | 0.00% | ― | 0.00% | -935.70% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
GFR
Greenfire Resources
5.15
-2.35
-31.33%
PNRG
Primeenergy
171.76
23.51
15.86%
WTI
W&T Offshore
1.82
-0.21
-10.34%
SJT
San Juan Basin Royalty
5.83
2.26
63.31%
GPRK
GeoPark
6.26
-0.71
-10.19%
ANNA
AleAnna
4.25
-6.83
-61.64%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.