Greenfire Resources (GFR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $647.08M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 138.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: -21.67%
• EPS Growth: 251.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 193
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 125,403,570
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 284,091
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 138,553
• PEG Ratio: -0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.92
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.74
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.43
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.89
• 1Y Price Target: $5.68
• Price Target Upside: 10.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(7.00% Upside)

Greenfire Resources demonstrates strong valuation and technical momentum, supported by a solid financial performance. The transformational recapitalization plan and production targets are positive, but challenges with leverage and emissions need addressing.

Positive Factors

Profitability Margins

Strong profitability margins indicate efficient cost management and operational efficiency, which can sustain financial health and competitiveness over time.

Recapitalization Plan

The recapitalization plan aims to reduce debt and improve financial stability, enhancing Greenfire's ability to invest in growth and manage economic fluctuations.

Stable Balance Sheet

A stable balance sheet with manageable leverage enhances financial flexibility, allowing Greenfire to navigate industry cycles and invest in strategic opportunities.

Negative Factors

Negative Revenue Growth

Negative revenue growth suggests declining sales, which could impact long-term sustainability and necessitate strategic adjustments to regain growth momentum.

Cash Flow Challenges

Declining free cash flow growth limits Greenfire's ability to fund operations and investments, potentially constraining future growth and financial resilience.

Flat Production Projections

Flat production projections indicate potential stagnation in output, which may hinder revenue growth and market share expansion if not addressed.

Greenfire Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Greenfire Resources (GFR) is a leading player in the renewable energy sector, specializing in the development and management of sustainable energy solutions. The company focuses on the exploration and production of geothermal energy, alongside innovations in carbon capture technologies. GFR's core products include geothermal energy plants and carbon offset programs aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, catering to both commercial and governmental clients seeking to enhance their sustainability efforts.

How the Company Makes Money

Greenfire Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced from its geothermal energy plants, which are contracted to supply power to utility companies and large-scale industrial clients. Additionally, GFR earns income through carbon offset credits, which can be sold to organizations looking to meet regulatory requirements or enhance their sustainability profiles. The company also engages in strategic partnerships with governmental agencies and private-sector firms to access funding for renewable projects, thereby expanding its operational capacity and revenue potential. Furthermore, GFR might explore research grants and collaborations with research institutions focusing on renewable technologies as a supplementary revenue stream.

Greenfire Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greenfire Resources shows strong profitability margins and a stable balance sheet with a solid equity base. However, negative revenue growth and a significant decline in free cash flow growth pose potential risks to financial health.

Income Statement

Greenfire Resources shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data reveals a strong net profit margin of 28.03% and a healthy EBIT margin of 26.45%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the revenue growth rate is negative at -9.40%, suggesting a decline in sales compared to the previous period. Despite this, the company maintains a robust EBITDA margin of 40.30%, highlighting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Greenfire Resources reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is strong at 24.61%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 68.98%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows some concerns, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -71.58% in the TTM period, indicating potential cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at 1.42, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is lower at 0.24, pointing to limited free cash flow relative to profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	730.72M	790.95M	675.97M	998.85M	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	335.51M	258.19M	279.47M	512.74M	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	253.79M	213.74M	-1.71M	188.22M	-709.58K	0.00
Net Income	202.37M	121.41M	-135.67M	131.70M	-711.62K	-360.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.29B	1.26B	1.17B	1.17B	1.13B	0.00
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.98M	67.42M	109.53M	35.36M	60.87M	0.00
Total Debt	323.45M	338.24M	390.07M	255.37M	325.57M	0.00
Total Liabilities	398.48M	436.04M	478.48M	336.49M	424.19M	60.00K
Stockholders Equity	886.99M	821.43M	695.00M	837.77M	704.89M	-60.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.41M	57.14M	53.12M	125.14M	27.39M	0.00
Operating Cash Flow	94.72M	144.55M	86.55M	164.73M	31.98M	0.00
Investing Cash Flow	-86.60M	-94.41M	-12.10M	-63.75M	-336.53M	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-97.38M	-95.43M	2.00K	-123.64M	365.61M	0.00

Greenfire Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.54, above the 50-day MA of 4.37, and above the 200-day MA of 4.36, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GFR.

Greenfire Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GFR	71 Outperform	$647.08M	4.19	16.30%	―	-21.67%	251.59%
PNRG	71 Outperform	$269.63M	15.77	12.07%	―	-6.03%	-54.59%
GPRK	68 Neutral	$406.37M	11.99	16.85%	5.95%	-26.63%	-66.89%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SJT	61 Neutral	$262.41M	―	-10.79%	―	-99.78%	-103.13%
WTI	47 Neutral	$269.29M	―	―	2.25%	-6.92%	-126.24%
ANNA	45 Neutral	$207.96M	―	-45.51%	―	―	-985.28%

Greenfire Resources Corporate Events

Greenfire Resources Launches $300 Million Rights Offering and Plans Debt Reduction

Greenfire Resources has announced a CAD$300 million rights offering and a conditional redemption of US$237.5 million of its senior secured notes due 2028. The rights offering allows shareholders to purchase additional shares at a discounted price, with the proceeds intended to fund the redemption of the notes. The Waterous Energy Fund, a major shareholder, has committed to purchasing any unsubscribed shares, ensuring the success of the offering. This strategic move is expected to strengthen Greenfire’s financial position and reduce its debt obligations, potentially enhancing its market competitiveness and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (GFR) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenfire Resources stock, see the GFR Stock Forecast page.

Greenfire Resources Reports Q3 2025 Results and Future Plans

Greenfire Resources Ltd., a Canadian oil sands producer, focuses on developing thermal oil assets in Alberta’s Athabasca region, leveraging its extensive resource base and infrastructure for capital-efficient production growth.

Greenfire Resources’ Earnings Call: Debt Reduction and Operational Challenges

The recent earnings call for Greenfire Resources Ltd. painted a picture of a company focused on financial restructuring and operational efficiency, yet facing significant challenges. The sentiment was a mix of optimism about strategic initiatives to reduce debt and improve financial stability, and concerns over high leverage, sulfur emissions, and flat production projections for 2026.

Greenfire Resources Reports Q3 2025 Results and Operational Updates

Greenfire Resources reported its Q3 2025 results, highlighting bitumen production of 15,757 bbls/d, which is consistent with the previous quarter but lower than the same period last year. The company experienced a production increase at its Expansion Asset due to well performance optimization, despite a steam generator failure, while the Demo Asset saw a planned production decrease due to a scheduled turnaround. Financially, Greenfire achieved an adjusted funds flow of $38.1 million and adjusted free cash flow of $20.2 million, with capital expenditures amounting to $17.9 million. These results reflect Greenfire’s strategic focus on operational efficiency and financial stability, positioning the company to navigate market fluctuations and maintain stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (GFR) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenfire Resources stock, see the GFR Stock Forecast page.

Greenfire Resources Announces C$300 Million Rights Offering

Greenfire Resources has announced a C$300 million rights offering to its shareholders, with the proceeds aimed at redeeming US$237.5 million of outstanding senior secured notes due in 2028. The offering will involve a standby purchase agreement with Waterous Energy Fund, which holds a significant stake in the company. This financial maneuver is expected to strengthen Greenfire’s financial position and support its strategic growth initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (GFR) stock is a Buy with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Greenfire Resources stock, see the GFR Stock Forecast page.