Greenfire Resources (GFR) AI Stock Analysis

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Greenfire Resources

(NYSE:GFR)

Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:

$5.50

▲(10.00% Upside)

Greenfire Resources scores well due to its attractive valuation and positive technical indicators. While financial performance is solid, concerns about revenue and cash flow growth slightly temper the overall score.

Greenfire Resources (GFR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$343.42M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)30.13K

Price to Earnings (P/E)2.4

Beta (1Y)1.03

Revenue Growth-11.62%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees193

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength57

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.50

Shares Outstanding70,230,000

10 Day Avg. Volume33,940

30 Day Avg. Volume30,132

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.45

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.69

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.67

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.71

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$5.80

Price Target Upside16.00% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Greenfire Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGreenfire Resources Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, exploration, and operation of oil and gas properties in the Athabasca oil sands region of Alberta. The company operates the Tier-1 oil sands assets located in Western Canada. It utilizes steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) extraction technology, a thermal oil recovery process to recover bitumen. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes MoneyGreenfire Resources makes money through the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas, which are then sold to markets around the world. The company generates revenue through the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and other petroleum products. Key revenue streams include production contracts, joint ventures, and strategic partnerships with other energy companies. Greenfire Resources may also engage in hedging activities to manage price volatility and optimize its revenue. Additionally, the company invests in research and development to improve extraction methods and reduce operational costs, thereby enhancing its profitability.

Greenfire Resources Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2025

(Q3-2024)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call presented a strong performance in production growth and financial metrics, including a significant turnaround in net income. However, challenges such as an unplanned outage and missing production guidance slightly offset these achievements.

Q3-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Production Increase

Consolidated production increased by 30% year-over-year, reaching 19,125 barrels per day up from 14,678 barrels per day in Q3 2023.

Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Adjusted EBITDA grew by 15% to $53.4 million from $44.4 million in the same quarter last year.

Net Income Turnaround

Net income was $58.9 million, a significant improvement compared to a $138.7 million loss in the same period last year.

Strong Financial Position

Greenfire maintains $87.7 million of available liquidity, consisting of $37.7 million in cash and $50 million of available credit.

Successful Drilling Campaign

The inaugural refill well drilling campaign was successful, and plans are in place to accelerate additional drilling.

Negative Updates

Production Guidance Miss

Annual production for 2024 is anticipated to average 19,500 barrels per day, slightly below the guidance range of 20,000 to 21,000 barrels per day.

Unplanned Outage

An unplanned outage on a steam generator at the Expansion Asset impacted production, despite being safely completed.

Commodity Risk Management Loss

A realized loss of $6.1 million on commodity risk management contracts was reported for the quarter.

Company Guidance

During the Greenfire Resources Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided guidance reflecting several key metrics and milestones. They reported a 30% year-over-year increase in consolidated production, reaching 19,125 barrels per day compared to 14,678 barrels per day in Q3 2023. Despite delays at the Demo Asset, causing annual production to average around 19,500 barrels per day—slightly below their guidance range of 20,000 to 21,000 barrels per day—the company anticipates production growth, reaching approximately 21,375 barrels per day in November 2024. Greenfire plans to increase capital expenditures to $90 million-$100 million, up from $80 million-$90 million, to accelerate drilling at the Expansion Asset. Financially, they generated $53.4 million in adjusted EBITDA, a 15% increase from last year, with net income of $58.9 million, marking a recovery from a $138.7 million loss. The company also reduced its debt by CAD 84.3 million, maintaining strong liquidity with $87.7 million available. Greenfire continues to focus on maximizing shareholder value through strategic reviews and operational efficiencies.

Greenfire Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Greenfire Resources exhibits strong financial health with a solid income statement, robust balance sheet, and improving cash flows. The company has demonstrated significant improvement in net income and maintains a healthy equity ratio and manageable leverage levels.

Income Statement

Positive

Greenfire Resources has demonstrated strong income statement performance with a significant improvement in net income from a loss in 2023 to $184 million in TTM 2025. The gross profit margin is robust at 38.2%, and there is a positive net profit margin of 23.2%. Revenue growth from 2023 to 2024 was impressive at 17%, although it slightly declined in TTM 2025. The EBIT and EBITDA margins show strong operational efficiency, indicating effective cost management.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The balance sheet of Greenfire Resources is solid with a healthy equity ratio of 66% in TTM 2025, indicating strong capital structure. The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.41, reflecting manageable leverage levels. Return on Equity (ROE) has improved significantly, suggesting effective use of equity capital to generate profits.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement shows a positive trajectory with a 37.9% increase in free cash flow in TTM 2025 compared to the previous period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.88, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. While free cash flow growth is positive, the company could further enhance its cash flow management to sustain long-term growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	722.02M	790.95M	652.26M	948.78M	261.13M	0.00
Gross Profit	299.46M	258.19M	142.89M	510.92M	139.09M	0.00
EBITDA	290.96M	213.74M	60.92M	218.30M	41.04M	0.00
Net Income	202.37M	121.41M	-135.67M	131.70M	661.44M	-360.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.29B	1.26B	1.17B	1.17B	1.13B	0.00
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.98M	67.42M	109.53M	35.36M	60.87M	0.00
Total Debt	323.45M	338.24M	390.07M	255.37M	325.57M	0.00
Total Liabilities	398.48M	436.04M	478.48M	336.49M	424.19M	60.00K
Stockholders Equity	886.99M	821.43M	695.00M	837.77M	704.89M	-60.00K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	22.41M	57.14M	53.12M	125.14M	27.39M	0.00
Operating Cash Flow	94.72M	144.55M	86.55M	164.73M	31.98M	0.00
Investing Cash Flow	-86.60M	-94.41M	-12.10M	-63.75M	-336.53M	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	-97.38M	-95.43M	2.00K	-123.64M	365.61M	0.00

Greenfire Resources Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price5.00

Price Trends

50DMA

4.54

Positive

100DMA

4.58

Positive

200DMA

5.53

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

0.08

Negative

RSI

65.11

Neutral

STOCH

83.96

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.56, above the 50-day MA of 4.54, and below the 200-day MA of 5.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.96 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GFR.

Greenfire Resources Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GFR	72 Outperform	$343.42M	2.39	25.41%	―	-11.62%	―
PNRG	68 Neutral	$252.12M	10.31	18.75%	―	22.97%	-19.37%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.26B	7.31	3.02%	5.32%	4.27%	-62.52%
GPRK	64 Neutral	$324.79M	7.62	22.94%	9.12%	-25.23%	-56.59%
SJT	61 Neutral	$271.73M	251.97	-6.27%	0.40%	-99.72%	-101.28%
WTI	50 Neutral	$267.01M	―	203.83%	2.21%	-11.53%	-342.58%
ANNA	45 Neutral	$345.48M	―	-65.43%	―	―	-935.70%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

GFR

Greenfire Resources

5.10

-2.30

-31.08%

PNRG

Primeenergy

150.49

16.97

12.71%

WTI

W&T Offshore

1.80

-0.48

-21.05%

SJT

San Juan Basin Royalty

5.74

2.40

71.86%

GPRK

GeoPark

6.49

-1.86

-22.28%

ANNA

AleAnna

4.24

-6.80

-61.59%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 23, 2025