Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. (GRNT)
NYSE:GRNT
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Granite Ridge Resources
(NYSE:GRNT)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(11.11% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
Overall score reflects weakened recent financial results (revenue decline and a swing to losses) offset by conservative leverage and strong operating cash flow. Technical indicators are broadly neutral with slight softness. Valuation is supported by a high dividend yield, but the negative P/E underscores current earnings weakness. Earnings-call guidance is moderately positive due to reduced capital intensity and a clear plan to reach sustainable free cash flow in 2027, tempered by commodity-price and cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Operator‑partner, capital‑efficient model
Granite Ridge’s scaled non‑operated/operator‑partnership model and low acquisition cost per location create a durable, capital‑efficient growth engine. By underwriting many small, high‑capture transactions they add inventory without running full operating costs, improving long‑term return on invested capital and portfolio optionality.
Negative Factors
Recent revenue decline and swing to loss
A material drop in revenue and a recent net loss signal that higher volumes have not insulated the business from price and mark‑to‑market pressures. Persistent earnings volatility erodes retained capital, limits reinvestment flexibility, and undermines the company’s ability to steadily self‑fund both dividends and growth over the medium term.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operator‑partner, capital‑efficient model
Granite Ridge’s scaled non‑operated/operator‑partnership model and low acquisition cost per location create a durable, capital‑efficient growth engine. By underwriting many small, high‑capture transactions they add inventory without running full operating costs, improving long‑term return on invested capital and portfolio optionality.
Read all positive factors
Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$728.07M
Dividend Yield9.36%
Average Volume (3M)889.60K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth10.07%
EPS Growth-369.16%
CountryUS
Employees3
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.25
Shares Outstanding131,896,000
10 Day Avg. Volume949,278
30 Day Avg. Volume889,603
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.88
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio-4.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.50Price Target Upside51.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$559.75M
Granite Ridge Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. manages private funds with interests in areas of the Midland, Delaware, Bakken, Eagle Ford, DJ, and Haynesville play. It invests in oil and gas exploration and production. The company is based in Dallas, Texas....
How the Company Makes Money
Granite Ridge makes money primarily by owning non-operated working interests in oil and natural gas wells and receiving its proportionate share of production revenue. For each property, an external operator sells produced hydrocarbons (oil, natura...
Granite Ridge Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights a strong operational scaling story—industry-leading production growth (~27–28% YoY), improved capital allocation via operator-partnerships, disciplined acquisition economics (avg. $1.4M per net location), solid liquidity ($339.5M) and manageable leverage (~1.2x net debt/EBITDAX). Headwinds are primarily commodity-price driven (notably weak Permian gas/Waha basis and a ~15% YOY decline in realized oil price in Q4), and some cost pressure in the Permian (LOE/service costs). Management is deliberately moderating growth and CapEx in 2026 to align spending with cash flows and target free cash flow generation in 2027. On balance the positives around scaling, balance sheet discipline, and a clear path to free cash flow outweigh the near-term pricing and cost challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth
Average daily production increased ~27% year over year to ~35,100 BOE/d in Q4; full-year 2025 production ~31,984–32,000 BOE/d, representing ~28% annual growth. Oil volumes expected to grow ~12% exit-to-exit (Q4 2025 to Q4 2026).
Negative Updates
Weak Commodity Realizations (Especially Natural Gas)
Q4 realized oil price $55.49/bbl vs $65.53/bbl prior-year quarter (~15% decline YoY); natural gas realized $1.81/Mcf (~48% of Henry Hub) with Waha basis weakness materially depressing Permian gas revenues and cash flow.
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Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Growth
Average daily production increased ~27% year over year to ~35,100 BOE/d in Q4; full-year 2025 production ~31,984–32,000 BOE/d, representing ~28% annual growth. Oil volumes expected to grow ~12% exit-to-exit (Q4 2025 to Q4 2026).
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Company Guidance
For 2026 management guided to average production of 34,000–36,000 BOE/d (midpoint ~35,000, ~9% y/y) with oil ≈51% of the mix and Q4‑to‑Q4 oil exit growth of ~12% (exit flat to modestly up vs. 2025), development capital of $300–330M (company midpoint commentary also referenced $315M) and total capital of $320–360M including $20–30M of planned acquisitions (≈90% directed to operated projects), roughly a 15% reduction in spend vs. 2025; maintenance capital is estimated at ≈$250M, LOE guidance is $6.75–7.75/BOE, production & ad valorem taxes 6–7% of revenue, cash G&A $25–27M, ~29 net wells expected online in 2026, the $0.11/quarter dividend will be maintained, the company expects a modest outspend at current strip but targets sustainable free cash flow in 2027 at ~$60 oil, intends to keep net‑debt/EBITDAX around ~1.0–1.25x (ended 2025 at ~1.2x), has added oil hedges, and a Conduit Power transaction expected to boost certain gas realizations by about $1–$2/Mcf.Granite Ridge Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 455.64M | 450.31M | 380.03M | 394.07M | 497.42M | 290.19M |
| Gross Profit | 107.64M | 122.15M | 120.03M | 145.18M | 316.37M | 151.13M |
| EBITDA | 288.43M | 306.84M | 219.97M | 271.56M | 382.94M | 205.50M |
| Net Income | -32.49M | 24.35M | 18.76M | 81.10M | 262.34M | 108.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.19B | 1.17B | 1.04B | 927.10M | 794.78M | 547.25M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 47.69M | 25.81M | 41.20M | 60.86M | 50.83M | 11.85M |
| Total Debt | 426.27M | 367.83M | 205.00M | 110.00M | 0.00 | 51.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 648.24M | 562.31M | 401.13M | 255.46M | 130.53M | 72.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 545.64M | 605.76M | 635.35M | 671.64M | 664.25M | 474.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -109.04M | -122.84M | -71.26M | -56.33M | 111.70M | -38.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 278.67M | 296.41M | 275.73M | 302.87M | 346.39M | 181.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -378.46M | -409.81M | -310.77M | -356.68M | -230.56M | -186.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 113.73M | 118.82M | 33.72M | 13.41M | -76.85M | 8.49M |
Granite Ridge Resources Technical Analysis
Neutral
4.95
Price Trends
5.56
Negative
5.18
Positive
5.12
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
49.64
Neutral
66.03
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRNT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 4.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.62, below the 50-day MA of 5.56, and below the 200-day MA of 5.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GRNT.
Granite Ridge Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $837.46M | -2.70 | 10.69% | 5.96% | -2.30% | -41.12% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
63 Neutral | $755.83M | -4.30 | -3.12% | 11.72% | 11.44% | -157.45% | |
60 Neutral | $921.85M | 2.75 | 0.16% | ― | 44.96% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $728.07M | -4.08 | -5.33% | 9.36% | 10.07% | -369.16% |
* Energy Sector Average
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources
5.52
0.23
4.39%
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
38.60
13.67
54.85%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
18.12
-1.31
-6.75%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
13.71
<0.01
0.05%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
14.51
-2.62
-15.29%
Granite Ridge Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Granite Ridge Shareholders Approve Directors, Auditor and Incentive Plan
Positive
May 22, 2026
On May 22, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources held its annual meeting of shareholders, at which investors elected Thaddeus Darden, Michele J. Everard and Kirk Lazarine as Class I directors to terms running through the 2029 annual meeting. Shareholders ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Granite Ridge Resources Posts Q1 Loss Amid Higher Output
Negative
May 7, 2026
On May 7, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources reported first-quarter 2026 results showing daily production up 18% year on year to 34,467 Boe, with oil volumes rising 11% and natural gas volumes up 24%. Despite higher volumes and $128.3 million in oil an...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Granite Ridge Reports 2025 Results, Shifts Capital Strategy
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting a 27% year-on-year increase in quarterly production to 35,120 Boe per day and a 28% full-year production increase to 31,984 Boe per day,...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.