Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $658.88M
• Dividend Yield: 9.36%
• Average Volume (3M): 628.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 18.56%
• EPS Growth: -21.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 131,251,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 501,467
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 628,665
• PEG Ratio: -0.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.21
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.44
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.41
• 1Y Price Target: $5.50
• Price Target Upside: 9.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.43
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $497.48M

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▼(-0.40% Downside)

Granite Ridge Resources' overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong production growth and attractive dividend yield. The company's technical indicators are neutral, and while the earnings call highlighted positive developments, challenges such as higher LOE and natural gas pricing remain. The stock is fairly valued, offering a solid income component.

Positive Factors

Production Growth

Sustained 27% production growth materially increases scale and operating leverage, improving long-term revenue stability and unit economics. Higher volumes support maintained dividends, greater cash flow potential, and better negotiating power with service partners, enabling organic growth and accretive acquisitions.

Solid Balance Sheet

A manageable debt-to-equity ratio and strong equity base increase resilience through commodity cycles, preserve financial flexibility for capex and M&A, and reduce refinancing risk. This structure supports durable investment in development while helping preserve dividend policy under stress.

Enhanced Liquidity & Refinancing

Improved liquidity and successful refinancing create a multi-quarter cushion to fund the company’s $400–420M capex program, support production targets, and enable opportunistic acquisitions. Lower leverage versus target increases strategic optionality and reduces pressure to cut long-term investments.

Negative Factors

Declining Free Cash Flow

A near-40% decline in free cash flow growth weakens the company’s ability to self-fund development and maintain returns without relying on external capital. Over months this raises financing dependence, constrains deleveraging, and could pressure capital allocation between dividends, buybacks, and growth.

Rising LOE per BOE

Elevated lease operating expenses directly erode per-unit margins and free cash flow sensitivity. If saltwater disposal and contract labor costs persist structurally, margins shrink even if production rises, reducing returns on new wells and extending payback periods for development projects.

Waha Natural Gas Price Weakness

Prolonged regional price weakness reduces realized gas revenues and project economics for months. Given natural gas exposure in the production mix, this structural pricing headwind can lower cash generation and lengthen investment paybacks until infrastructure fixes restore market access and pricing levels.

Granite Ridge Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. manages private funds with interests in areas of the Midland, Delaware, Bakken, Eagle Ford, DJ, and Haynesville play. It invests in oil and gas exploration and production. The company is based in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Granite Ridge Resources generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. The company's revenue model is centered on the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids to various customers, including refiners, marketers, and utilities. Key revenue streams include the sale of hydrocarbons produced from its owned and operated wells, as well as revenue from leasing its mineral rights to third parties for exploration. Significant partnerships with industry players for joint ventures and service agreements further bolster its earnings potential, allowing for shared resources and expertise in drilling and production operations. Additionally, fluctuations in commodity prices and strategic asset management play crucial roles in influencing the company's overall profitability.

Granite Ridge Resources Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Granite Ridge Resources demonstrates a stable financial position with moderate profitability and revenue growth. The balance sheet reflects a strong equity base and manageable debt levels, but cash flow generation faces challenges due to recent declines in free cash flow growth.

Income Statement

Granite Ridge Resources shows a moderate performance in its income statement. The TTM Gross Profit Margin is 31.53%, indicating a decent level of profitability. The Net Profit Margin improved to 11.17% from the previous year's 4.94%, showing better cost management. However, the Revenue Growth Rate is only 4.30% TTM, which is relatively low compared to the industry. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are stable at 13.26% and 63.87% respectively, reflecting efficient operations.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Granite Ridge Resources is solid with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 0.47 TTM, indicating a manageable level of debt. The Return on Equity is 5.92% TTM, which is modest but shows potential for improvement. The Equity Ratio stands at 57.05%, suggesting a strong equity base relative to total assets, which enhances financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals some challenges. The Free Cash Flow Growth Rate is negative at -39.53% TTM, indicating a decline in free cash flow generation. However, the Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is strong at 3.90, suggesting robust cash flow generation relative to net income. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.66, showing that a significant portion of net income is converted into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	451.13M	380.03M	394.07M	497.42M	290.19M	87.10M
Gross Profit	139.85M	120.03M	145.18M	316.37M	151.13M	-19.91M
EBITDA	277.90M	219.97M	271.56M	382.94M	205.50M	57.86M
Net Income	37.79M	18.76M	81.10M	262.34M	108.46M	-23.93M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.13B	1.04B	927.10M	794.78M	547.25M	192.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.41M	41.20M	60.86M	50.83M	11.85M	2.64M
Total Debt	300.00M	205.00M	110.00M	0.00	51.10M	9.90M
Total Liabilities	484.65M	401.13M	255.46M	130.53M	72.32M	14.43M
Stockholders Equity	643.89M	635.35M	671.64M	664.25M	474.93M	178.43M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-91.69M	-71.26M	-56.33M	111.70M	-38.10M	-50.58M
Operating Cash Flow	300.11M	275.73M	302.87M	346.39M	181.18M	66.81M
Investing Cash Flow	-357.93M	-310.77M	-356.68M	-230.56M	-186.02M	-116.74M
Financing Cash Flow	46.54M	33.72M	13.41M	-76.85M	8.49M	52.07M

Granite Ridge Resources Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRNT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.57, above the 50-day MA of 4.82, and below the 200-day MA of 5.15, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.22 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRNT.

Granite Ridge Resources Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
REPX	76 Outperform	$616.23M	6.87	16.09%	5.96%	-2.43%	-28.19%
GRNT	67 Neutral	$658.88M	17.50	5.74%	9.36%	18.56%	-21.43%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
VTS	59 Neutral	$810.60M	43.82	3.50%	11.72%	6.23%	-64.88%
INR	56 Neutral	$966.74M	-30.12	-2.91%	―	―	―

Granite Ridge Resources Corporate Events

Granite Ridge Resources Amends Management Services Agreement

On December 10, 2025, Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. amended its Management Services Agreement with Grey Rock Administration, LLC, extending the term to April 30, 2031, and increasing the service fee from $10 million to $11.75 million, with potential further increases based on CPI adjustments. Additionally, on December 12, 2025, Granite Ridge Ventures, a subsidiary of Granite Ridge Resources, entered into a power capacity commitment arrangement with Conduit Bravo LLC, aligning with similar transactions by third parties.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRNT) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Granite Ridge Resources stock, see the GRNT Stock Forecast page.

Granite Ridge Reports Q3 Production Surge and Dividend

Granite Ridge Resources reported a 27% increase in daily production for the third quarter of 2025, reaching 31,925 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend and issued $350 million in senior unsecured notes to enhance liquidity. The company’s financial results showed a net income of $14.5 million, with significant investments in development and acquisition capital. Granite Ridge’s strategic actions, including proactive refinancing, aim to maintain a conservative capital structure and ensure flexibility for high-return opportunities, positioning the company for continued growth into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRNT) stock is a Hold with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Granite Ridge Resources stock, see the GRNT Stock Forecast page.