Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT)
NYSE:GRNT
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Granite Ridge Resources
(NYSE:GRNT)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(7.79% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is primarily held back by volatile fundamentals and reduced confidence from inconsistencies in the most recent annual financial dataset, despite solid operating cash flow and generally manageable leverage. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is mixed (high dividend yield but a mid-to-higher P/E). Earnings call tone is constructive with moderated growth and a clearer free-cash-flow pathway, but price/basis and cost headwinds remain meaningful risks.
Positive Factors
Strong production growth and inventory capture
Sustained, sizable production growth and active location acquisition expand the company’s asset base and scale cash generation potential. Durable volume gains plus added acreage and locations improve visibility on multi-year production, supporting long-term cash flow capacity and unit-cost dilution.
Negative Factors
Commodity and Permian Waha basis exposure
Persistent regional basis and commodity-price weakness directly depress revenues and margins independent of production growth. Structural Permian gas differentials (Waha) can persist for years, making cash flows sensitive to regional takeaway economics and limiting predictability of free cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong production growth and inventory capture
Sustained, sizable production growth and active location acquisition expand the company’s asset base and scale cash generation potential. Durable volume gains plus added acreage and locations improve visibility on multi-year production, supporting long-term cash flow capacity and unit-cost dilution.
Read all positive factors
Granite Ridge Resources (GRNT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$748.04M
Dividend Yield9.36%
Average Volume (3M)820.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.2
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth18.56%
EPS Growth-21.43%
CountryUS
Employees3
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding131,464,920
10 Day Avg. Volume1,187,391
30 Day Avg. Volume820,102
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.88
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)1.36
P/FCF Ratio-4.99
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.50Price Target Upside-8.79% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.61
Revenue Forecast (FY)$522.32M
Granite Ridge Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. manages private funds with interests in areas of the Midland, Delaware, Bakken, Eagle Ford, DJ, and Haynesville play. It invests in oil and gas exploration and production. The company is based in Dallas, Texas....
How the Company Makes Money
Granite Ridge makes money primarily by owning non-operated working interests in oil and natural gas wells and receiving its proportionate share of production revenue. For each property, an external operator sells produced hydrocarbons (oil, natura...
Granite Ridge Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally positive operational and strategic picture: industry-leading production growth, a maturing operator-partnership model that captured low-cost inventory, improving capital discipline, and a clear goal of reaching sustainable free cash flow in 2027 while maintaining the dividend. Offsetting these positives are meaningful near-term commodity price and basis headwinds (notably Permian gas/Waha), rising LOE/service costs, and a deliberate moderation of growth that reduces near-term upside. On balance, the highlights around scaling, profitability progress, balance sheet discipline, and a pathway to free cash flow outweigh the pricing and cost headwinds described.Positive Updates
Strong Production Growth
Average daily production increased ~27% year-over-year in Q4 to ~35,100 BOE/d; full-year 2025 production increased ~28% to ~31,984–32,000 BOE/d. Placed 67 gross wells online in Q4 and 322 gross wells for the full year.
Negative Updates
Weak Commodity Realizations Impacting Revenue
Q4 average realized oil price was $55.49/bbl versus $65.53/bbl year-ago (≈15% decline), and natural gas averaged $1.81/Mcf (~48% of Henry Hub). Weak Waha basis in the Permian materially weighed on Q4 revenue despite strong volume growth; Q4 oil & gas sales were $105.5M and were essentially flat year-over-year.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Production Growth
Average daily production increased ~27% year-over-year in Q4 to ~35,100 BOE/d; full-year 2025 production increased ~28% to ~31,984–32,000 BOE/d. Placed 67 gross wells online in Q4 and 322 gross wells for the full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026 the company guided to average production of ~34,000–36,000 BOE/d (midpoint ≈35,000 BOE/d, ~9% YoY growth) with oil ~51% of volumes and exit-to-exit oil production ~+12% (exit roughly flat to modestly up vs. 2025); development capital is targeted at roughly $300–330M (Tyler’s midpoint $315M) with $20–30M of incremental acquisitions (total capex $320–360M), about 90% of 2026 capital focused on operated projects, representing ~15% less spend than 2025’s $401M while still growing ~9%; maintenance capital is estimated at ~$250M, LOE guidance $6.75–$7.75/BOE, production & ad valorem taxes 6–7% of revenue, cash G&A $25–27M, quarterly dividend maintained at $0.11/share, ~29 net wells expected online in 2026 (vs. 38 net last year), modest outspend anticipated at current strip, and the company expects to target sustainable free cash flow in 2027 while keeping leverage around its ~1.0–1.25x objective (net debt/EBITDAX was ~1.2x at year-end).Granite Ridge Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
47
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 450.31M | 380.03M | 394.07M | 497.42M | 290.19M |
| Gross Profit | 122.15M | 120.03M | 145.18M | 316.37M | 151.13M |
| EBITDA | 306.84M | 219.97M | 271.56M | 382.94M | 205.50M |
| Net Income | 24.35M | 18.76M | 81.10M | 262.34M | 108.46M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.19B | 1.04B | 927.10M | 794.78M | 547.25M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.81M | 41.20M | 60.86M | 50.83M | 11.85M |
| Total Debt | 17.50M | 205.00M | 110.00M | 0.00 | 51.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 587.12M | 401.13M | 255.46M | 130.53M | 72.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 605.76M | 635.35M | 671.64M | 664.25M | 474.93M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -122.84M | -71.26M | -56.33M | 111.70M | -38.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 296.41M | 275.73M | 302.87M | 346.39M | 181.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -409.81M | -310.77M | -356.68M | -230.56M | -186.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 118.82M | 33.72M | 13.41M | -76.85M | 8.49M |
Granite Ridge Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
6.03
Price Trends
5.22
Positive
4.97
Positive
5.08
Positive
Market Momentum
0.20
Negative
55.08
Neutral
67.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRNT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.56, above the 50-day MA of 5.22, and above the 200-day MA of 5.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRNT.
Granite Ridge Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $845.87M | 3.47 | 28.09% | 5.96% | -2.43% | -28.19% | |
68 Neutral | $716.38M | 28.68 | 3.86% | 11.72% | 6.23% | -64.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $748.04M | 25.18 | 3.86% | 9.36% | 18.56% | -21.43% | |
62 Neutral | $1.07B | ― | 0.09% | ― | ― | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources
5.69
0.91
18.99%
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
39.22
14.61
59.34%
VTS
Vitesse Energy, Inc.
18.01
-1.39
-7.18%
TXO
TXO Energy Partners LP
12.50
-2.46
-16.47%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
16.85
0.30
1.81%
Granite Ridge Resources Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Granite Ridge Reports 2025 Results, Shifts Capital Strategy
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
On March 5, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting a 27% year-on-year increase in quarterly production to 35,120 Boe per day and a 28% full-year production increase to 31,984 Boe per day,...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Granite Ridge Resources Appoints New Chief Financial Officer
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Granite Ridge Resources’ board approved the appointment of veteran energy finance executive Ronald “Kyle” Kettler as Chief Financial Officer, effective February 9, 2026, succeeding Kim Weimer, who will remain...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.