Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR)
NYSE:MNR
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Mach Natural Resources LP
(NYSE:MNR)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(21.57% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/23/26
The score is driven primarily by middling financial performance—cooling profitability, sharply lower ROE, and uneven free cash flow—partly offset by constructive technical momentum and a supportive income/valuation profile via a very high dividend yield. Earnings-call commentary is a positive catalyst due to disciplined capital allocation and a shift toward higher-return oil drilling, while the ATM financing adds flexibility but raises dilution risk.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and strong EBITDA provide durable internal funding for distributions, maintenance and targeted reinvestment. Over the next 2–6 months this cash generation underpins liquidity, supports deleveraging efforts and preserves capital allocation optionality.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Debt at ~1.3x net leverage constrains strategic flexibility: management must prioritize debt paydown or dilution-raising equity programs before large debt-funded M&A. Over 2–6 months this limits growth options and increases sensitivity to cash-flow variability and refinancing risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and strong EBITDA provide durable internal funding for distributions, maintenance and targeted reinvestment. Over the next 2–6 months this cash generation underpins liquidity, supports deleveraging efforts and preserves capital allocation optionality.
Read all positive factors
Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.36B
Dividend Yield17.48%
Average Volume (3M)788.82K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth22.47%
EPS Growth-56.03%
CountryUS
Employees505
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.74
Shares Outstanding168,224,210
10 Day Avg. Volume579,702
30 Day Avg. Volume788,821
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.12
Price to Book (P/B)0.73
Price to Sales (P/S)1.23
P/FCF Ratio6.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.60
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.06
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.33Price Target Upside51.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.49B
Mach Natural Resources LP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas...
How the Company Makes Money
MNR makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids—from its operated and/or owned interests in wells and associated acreage. Revenue is recognized based on (1) production volumes attribu...
Mach Natural Resources LP Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational and financial performance: robust adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow, low LOE and G&A per BOE, high historical IRRs, attractive acreage and well results (San Juan and Deep Anadarko outperformance), and tactical drilling shifts to capture higher oil returns. Management is disciplined on reinvestment (<50%) and distributions, and liquidity remains adequate. Key negatives are elevated leverage (~1.3x versus historical ≤1.0x), weak gas basis in the San Juan that depresses realized gas prices and makes near-term monetizations less attractive, and rising service cost inflation. Management has clear plans to prioritize high-return oil drilling and to reduce leverage over time. Overall, positives (strong cash generation, cost discipline, high returns, and operational optionality) outweigh the manageable financial and market headwinds.Positive Updates
Production and Commodity Mix
Q1 production of 158,000 BOE/d comprised of 16% oil, 70% natural gas, and 14% NGLs.
Negative Updates
Elevated Leverage
Leverage increased to approximately 1.3x following the iCAV and Sabinol acquisitions, above historical target of ≤1.0x; management aims to return to ~1x before materially pursuing more debt-funded acquisitions.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Production and Commodity Mix
Q1 production of 158,000 BOE/d comprised of 16% oil, 70% natural gas, and 14% NGLs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that CapEx guidance holds and reiterated a disciplined plan to keep reinvestment below 50% of operating cash flow (with potential mid‑year guidance updates), pivoting toward oil by adding three oil‑weighted rigs (first Oswego rig moved May 1; Clear Fork rig targeted around July 1) while postponing Deep Anadarko dry‑gas activity and possibly deferring San Juan Mancos completions into 2027 to preserve cash; they aim to reduce leverage from ~1.3x back toward ~1.0x before making debt‑funded acquisitions and will prioritize maintaining distributions. For context, Q1 production was 158k BOE/d (16% oil / 70% gas / 14% NGLs) with realized prices of $69.73/bbl oil, $2.74/Mcf gas and $23.75/bbl NGLs; oil & gas revenues were $366M (42% oil / 45% gas / 13% NGLs) while total revenues including hedges/midstream were $286M; adjusted EBITDA was $195M, operating cash flow $170M, development CapEx $75M (≈40% of OCF after interest), cash available for distribution $107M leading to a distribution of $64 per unit, LOE $101M or $7.12/BOE, cash G&A ~$5M or $0.37/BOE, cash $53M with $305M available on the credit facility. They also highlighted asset metrics and optionality: San Juan production can be held near ~300 MMcf/d with ~65% of volumes under a $1.72 production‑payment contract, five Deep Anadarko wells averaged >12 MMcf/d 90‑day cumulative vs. a 15 Bcf type curve at 10.6 MMcf/d, and site‑level savings of roughly $1–1.5M per San Juan location.Mach Natural Resources LP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.33B | 1.18B | 969.63M | 762.31M | 937.41M | 392.50M |
| Gross Profit | 491.00M | 392.02M | 331.83M | 386.80M | 547.84M | 216.33M |
| EBITDA | 681.62M | 507.97M | 560.74M | 495.38M | 610.28M | 180.72M |
| Net Income | 235.04M | 285.97M | 185.18M | 346.56M | 516.84M | 138.37M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.69B | 3.78B | 2.34B | 2.30B | 887.44M | 525.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.69M | 42.63M | 105.78M | 152.79M | 29.42M | 59.27M |
| Total Debt | 1.15B | 1.16B | 766.17M | 824.49M | 99.71M | 85.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.84B | 1.79B | 1.14B | 1.11B | 294.21M | 246.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.99B | 1.20B | 1.19B | 593.23M | 278.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 96.84M | 236.41M | 284.98M | 176.94M | 310.52M | 157.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 534.75M | 506.96M | 505.29M | 491.74M | 553.54M | 198.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -882.13M | -899.16M | -306.32M | -1.03B | -372.66M | -194.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 392.27M | 329.06M | -245.99M | 658.79M | -210.74M | -4.58M |
Mach Natural Resources LP Technical Analysis
Positive
12.75
Price Trends
13.08
Positive
12.18
Positive
11.82
Positive
Market Momentum
0.37
Negative
64.84
Neutral
32.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.45, below the 50-day MA of 13.08, and above the 200-day MA of 11.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNR.
Mach Natural Resources LP Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.33B | 11.22 | 21.88% | 12.53% | -2.97% | -33.78% | |
74 Outperform | $1.78B | 51.23 | 10.68% | 13.84% | 0.87% | 770.57% | |
68 Neutral | $2.36B | -16.81 | 13.10% | 17.48% | 22.47% | -56.03% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
| ― | $1.12B | 21.05 | 959.49% | 7.51% | -11.58% | -12.24% | |
64 Neutral | $3.09B | 16.50 | 15.50% | ― | 52.41% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $2.68B | -2.59 | -33.22% | ― | -15.43% | -3103.48% |
* Energy Sector Average
MNR
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Mach Natural Resources LP Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mach Natural Resources Launches $100 Million ATM Program
Positive
May 22, 2026
On May 22, 2026, Mach Natural Resources LP entered into an equity distribution agreement with Morgan Stanley Co. LLC, allowing the company to issue and sell up to $100 million of common units from time to time in an at-the-market equity program. ...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Mach Natural Resources Reports Q1 2026 Results and Distribution
Neutral
May 7, 2026
Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas producer with operations across the Anadarko, Permian and San Juan basins, reported its financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The partnership focuses on...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Mach Natural Resources completes secondary public unit offering
Neutral
Apr 8, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Mach Natural Resources LP and certain selling unitholders entered into an underwriting agreement with Morgan Stanley Co. LLC for a public offering of 9,000,000 common units, with a 30-day option for the underwriter to purchase u...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.