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Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR)
NYSE:MNR
US Market
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Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) AI Stock Analysis

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MNR

Mach Natural Resources LP

(NYSE:MNR)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(13.96% Upside)
Mach Natural Resources LP's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation metrics. The company's strategic acquisitions and robust dividend yield further enhance its appeal. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to mixed momentum signals, and challenges from lower realized prices and legal settlements could impact short-term performance.

Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Mach Natural Resources LP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and the panhandle of Texas. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyMNR generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of oil and gas resources. The company acquires leases and drilling rights, allowing it to extract hydrocarbons and sell them in the open market. Additionally, MNR may engage in joint ventures and partnerships with other firms to share the financial burdens and risks associated with large-scale projects. Revenue streams also include royalties from mineral rights and income generated from infrastructure investments that facilitate resource extraction. Market conditions, commodity prices, and regulatory environments play significant roles in influencing MNR's earnings.

Mach Natural Resources LP Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a balanced sentiment with strong strategic acquisitions and operational efficiency, but challenges remain with lower realized prices, legal settlements, and widened gas differentials impacting financial performance.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisitions Enhance Portfolio
Mach Natural Resources successfully acquired IKAV and Sabinal assets, which are expected to increase natural gas volumes to 70% post-acquisition and project natural gas to be at least 50% of revenue starting in 2026.
Strong Cash Flow and Distribution
Mach maintained a reinvestment rate of less than 50% of operating cash flow, optimizing distribution to unitholders with a $0.38 per unit distribution in Q2, totaling $4.87 per unit since public offering.
Successful Drilling and Low Operating Costs
The company drilled 10 wells in Q2 with low lease operating costs of $6.52 per BOE, reflecting efficient operations and cost management.
Negative Updates
Lower Realized Prices and Revenue Impact
Pre-hedge realized prices were lower by 11% for oil, 21% for gas, and 17% for NGLs compared to Q1, impacting total oil and gas revenue contribution.
Legal Settlement and Gas Price Headwinds
A legal settlement related to a royalty owner dispute reduced cash available for distribution by $8.2 million, and lower gas prices contributed to a $0.07 reduction in distribution per unit.
Widened Gas Differentials
The Panhandle Eastern basis differential widened during the quarter, affecting gas pricing and realized revenue.
Company Guidance
During the second quarter of 2025, Mach Natural Resources provided robust guidance emphasizing their strategic approach and financial metrics. The company aims to maintain a long-term debt to EBITDA ratio of 1x leverage, which facilitated acquisitions like IKAV and Sabinal. These acquisitions are expected to boost natural gas volumes to 70% post-acquisition, with natural gas projected to comprise at least 50% of revenue by 2026. Mach plans to maintain a reinvestment rate of less than 50% of operating cash flow, enhancing operating cash flow while keeping production steady despite market fluctuations. The company highlighted a return on capital invested exceeding 30% annually over the past five years, projecting a 25% return for the current year despite lower crude prices. Additionally, Mach distributed $0.38 per unit in the second quarter, totaling over $1.2 billion since 2018. Their development plans include drilling in the San Juan and Anadarko Basins, targeting high returns with a focus on natural gas, and maintaining flexibility to adapt to market conditions.

Mach Natural Resources LP Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Mach Natural Resources LP exhibits strong financial health with impressive profitability and cash flow metrics. The company has effectively managed its leverage, as evidenced by a declining debt-to-equity ratio. While revenue growth and profitability margins are commendable, the decrease in gross profit margin and past volatility in free cash flow warrant attention.
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Mach Natural Resources LP demonstrates strong profitability with a consistent increase in net profit margin from 19.1% in 2024 to 37.7% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The revenue growth rate of 4.38% in TTM indicates a positive trajectory, although it is lower compared to the previous year's growth. The company maintains healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins, showcasing operational efficiency. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from 69.5% in 2022 to 49.4% in TTM, which could be a concern if the trend continues.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio from 0.69 in 2023 to 0.35 in TTM, indicating improved leverage. Return on equity remains strong at 29% in TTM, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, supporting financial stability. However, the reduction in stockholders' equity from 2022 to TTM could pose a risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals robust free cash flow growth of 34.4% in TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.94 in TTM suggests efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.62, reflecting good cash flow management. Despite these strengths, the company experienced negative free cash flow in 2023, highlighting potential volatility in cash flow generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.05B969.63M762.31M1.20B392.50M
Gross Profit517.14M331.83M386.80M832.38M216.33M
EBITDA572.42M560.74M495.38M768.13M180.72M
Net Income394.69M185.18M346.56M516.84M138.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.33B2.34B2.30B887.44M525.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments13.78M105.78M152.79M29.42M59.27M
Total Debt570.27M766.17M824.49M99.71M85.80M
Total Liabilities692.13M1.14B1.11B294.21M246.68M
Stockholders Equity1.64B1.20B1.19B593.23M278.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow323.00M284.98M-577.91M310.52M157.45M
Operating Cash Flow517.17M505.29M491.74M553.54M198.46M
Investing Cash Flow-433.45M-306.32M-1.03B-372.66M-194.74M
Financing Cash Flow-214.57M-245.99M658.79M-210.74M-4.58M

Mach Natural Resources LP Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price14.04
Price Trends
50DMA
14.23
Negative
100DMA
13.66
Positive
200DMA
13.93
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.03
Negative
RSI
48.58
Neutral
STOCH
66.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.96, below the 50-day MA of 14.23, and above the 200-day MA of 13.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MNR.

Mach Natural Resources LP Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$1.20B14.3231.42%12.37%4.58%-32.82%
77
Outperform
$1.67B7.3016.84%16.17%11.56%
71
Outperform
$2.35B23.270.70%5.48%32.84%-755.17%
69
Neutral
$1.69B54.59-6.56%10.59%-3044.85%
65
Neutral
$15.28B7.483.19%5.33%4.10%-60.58%
64
Neutral
$961.13M8.876.80%2.14%-20.30%-27.90%
62
Neutral
$1.88B-1.36%13.20%55.44%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
14.04
-0.12
-0.85%
DMLP
Dorchester Minerals
24.91
-1.28
-4.89%
TALO
Talos Energy
9.47
-1.44
-13.20%
HPK
HighPeak Energy
7.49
-6.47
-46.35%
CRGY
Crescent Energy Company Class A
8.76
-1.14
-11.52%
BKV
BKV Corporation
21.89
3.84
21.27%

Mach Natural Resources LP Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Mach Natural Resources LP Announces Major Acquisitions
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Mach Natural Resources LP reported its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a net income of $90 million and an average production of 83.6 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.38 per common unit and announced two significant acquisitions for approximately $1.3 billion, aimed at enhancing its scale and diversifying its portfolio with entries into the Permian Basin and San Juan Basin, which are expected to drive long-term growth and maximize unitholder value.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Mach Natural Resources Announces Major Acquisitions
Positive
Jul 10, 2025

On July 9, 2025, Mach Natural Resources LP announced two significant acquisitions: the purchase of oil and gas assets from Sabinal Energy in the Permian Basin and entities owning assets managed by IKAV Energy in the San Juan Basin. The combined transactions, valued at approximately $1.3 billion, are expected to nearly double Mach’s production and diversify its asset base across three prolific basins. These acquisitions are anticipated to be immediately accretive to cash available for distribution, enhancing Mach’s strategic growth platform and positioning it as a consolidator in the industry.

Business Operations and Strategy
Mach Natural Resources Releases New Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jun 11, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Mach Natural Resources LP released a new investor presentation on its website. This announcement may impact stakeholders by providing updated insights into the company’s strategic direction and operational plans.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 28, 2025