Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.97B
• Dividend Yield: 17.48%
• Average Volume (3M): 351.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 9.33%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 505
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): -0.28
• Shares Outstanding: 168,422,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 286,306
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 351,757
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.73
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.88
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.64
• 1Y Price Target: $18.67
• Price Target Upside: 59.71% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.45B

• Rating: 81 Outperform
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(6.93% Upside)

Mach Natural Resources LP is well-positioned with strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's strategic acquisitions and high dividend yield are significant strengths, while potential risks include operational margin pressures and increased debt levels.

Positive Factors

Strong Revenue Growth

A near-70% TTM revenue increase signals expanding production and market access, underpinning durable top-line growth. Sustained revenue expansion supports reinvestment capacity, debt reduction targets, and larger cash distributions if margins remain intact over the next several quarters.

High Cash Returns on Capital

Consistently >30% cash return on capital demonstrates disciplined capital allocation and strong project economics. This track record implies the business can generate high incremental returns, supporting sustainable distributions and the ability to fund growth without overreliance on external financing.

Value-Adding Acquisitions

Acquisitions that are immediately accretive to cash available for distribution and scaled to deliver rising long-term CAD contribution strengthen reserves and diversification. Well-executed M&A can raise scale, lower unit costs, and improve long-run cash generation.

Negative Factors

Elevated Post-Acquisition Leverage

Leverage rising above 1.3x increases financial risk if commodity prices or cash flows weaken. Higher debt burdens constrain flexibility for opportunistic investment or larger distributions and make the firm more sensitive to interest and refinancing cycles over the medium term.

Declining Free Cash Flow Growth

A drop in free cash flow growth and a FCF/NI ratio below 1.0 signal less cash left after capex to fund distributions, pay down debt, or invest. If this trend persists, it can limit strategic flexibility and slow progress toward stated leverage targets.

Compressed EBIT/EBITDA Margins

Eroding EBIT and EBITDA margins point to rising costs or integration inefficiencies that can reduce free cash generation. Unless operational efficiencies or pricing improvements restore margins, sustained compression will hamper profitability and the ability to meet long-term cash return goals.

Mach Natural Resources LP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and the panhandle of Texas. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

Mach Natural Resources LP generates revenue primarily through the sale of extracted oil and natural gas. The company has various revenue streams, including direct sales to refineries and energy companies, long-term contracts with established partners, and spot market transactions. MNR also benefits from strategic partnerships with other industry players, which enhance its market reach and operational capabilities. Additionally, the company may engage in joint ventures and collaborations that provide access to new resources and technologies, further driving its earnings potential.

Mach Natural Resources LP Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mach Natural Resources LP shows strong revenue growth and profitability with a solid net profit margin. However, declining EBIT and EBITDA margins and a decrease in free cash flow growth present potential challenges. The balanced capital structure and efficient equity utilization are positive, but reliance on debt poses risks.

Income Statement

Mach Natural Resources LP demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 69.3% compared to the previous year. The company maintains healthy profitability with a TTM net profit margin of 27.4% and a gross profit margin of 43.4%. However, there is a noticeable decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins compared to the previous year, indicating potential cost pressures or operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49 in the TTM, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity is solid at 17.8%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. However, the equity ratio stands at 52.1%, suggesting a reliance on debt financing that could pose risks if market conditions change.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 6.2% in the TTM, which could impact future investment capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.36, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.90 suggests limited cash available after capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.02B	969.63M	762.31M	937.41M	392.50M
Gross Profit	410.74M	331.83M	386.80M	547.84M	216.33M
EBITDA	529.63M	560.74M	495.38M	610.28M	180.72M
Net Income	291.59M	185.18M	346.56M	516.84M	138.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.77B	2.34B	2.30B	887.44M	525.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	53.60M	105.78M	152.79M	29.42M	59.27M
Total Debt	1.17B	766.17M	824.49M	99.71M	85.80M
Total Liabilities	1.81B	1.14B	1.11B	294.21M	246.68M
Stockholders Equity	1.96B	1.20B	1.19B	593.23M	278.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	219.90M	284.98M	176.94M	310.52M	157.45M
Operating Cash Flow	511.87M	505.29M	491.74M	553.54M	198.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-935.41M	-306.32M	-1.03B	-372.66M	-194.74M
Financing Cash Flow	292.61M	-245.99M	658.79M	-210.74M	-4.58M

Mach Natural Resources LP Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 11.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 11.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.20, above the 50-day MA of 11.49, and below the 200-day MA of 12.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MNR.

Mach Natural Resources LP Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNR	81 Outperform	$1.97B	12.22	6.68%	17.48%	9.33%	―
DMLP	72 Outperform	$1.23B	22.56	14.72%	12.53%	-12.51%	-59.55%
SBR	66 Neutral	$1.04B	13.19	986.82%	7.51%	-14.84%	-16.23%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
KRP	64 Neutral	$1.64B	-75.15	4.73%	13.84%	-2.71%	-113.80%
BKV	62 Neutral	$2.88B	57.45	2.62%	―	31.67%	―
TALO	61 Neutral	$2.03B	-5.92	-13.71%	―	-0.02%	-473.61%

Mach Natural Resources LP Corporate Events

Mach Natural Resources appoints Christopher Burn to Board

On December 15, 2025, Francis A. Keating II resigned as a director and committee member of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC’s Board without any disagreements regarding company management or operations. On the same date, Christopher J. Burn was appointed as a director and committee member, with extensive investment and research experience, including roles at Goshen Investments, LLC and Archegos Capital Management LLC. Mr. Burn’s appointment strengthens the Board with his industry expertise, and he will receive compensation aligned with the company’s non-employee director policies, including an award of phantom units valued at $150,000. The partnership emphasized compliance with NYSE standards and confirmed Mr. Burn’s independent director status, further solidifying governance reliability.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNR) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mach Natural Resources LP stock, see the MNR Stock Forecast page.

Mach Natural Resources LP Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Mach Natural Resources LP announced its financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a net loss of $36 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $124 million. The company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit and highlighted its recent acquisitions in the Permian and San Juan Basins, which have expanded its operational scale. Mach also updated its 2026 outlook, reducing its drilling and completion capital program by 18% while maintaining production guidance, reflecting strong capital efficiency and well performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNR) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mach Natural Resources LP stock, see the MNR Stock Forecast page.