Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR)
NYSE:MNR
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Mach Natural Resources LP
(NYSE:MNR)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(9.63% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:04/08/26
The score is driven by strong cash generation and an attractive valuation profile (low P/E and very high yield). This is tempered by earnings-quality volatility (2025 net income reported at $0 despite strong EBITDA/OCF) and only mixed technical momentum. Earnings-call guidance and sentiment are constructive, but leverage above target and capital-intensity/basis risks remain key watch items.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and a sharp free cash flow improvement provide durable funding for distributions, debt reduction and selective reinvestment. Over 2–6 months this supports financial flexibility, liquidity for capital programs, and reduces dependency on external financing during commodity swings.
Negative Factors
Earnings-Quality Volatility
A reported net income of zero despite strong operating profits signals one-off or noncash items that distort earnings. That volatility complicates covenant monitoring, investor assessment of profitability, and may hide risks to tax, impairment or cash timing, reducing clarity on sustainable earnings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and a sharp free cash flow improvement provide durable funding for distributions, debt reduction and selective reinvestment. Over 2–6 months this supports financial flexibility, liquidity for capital programs, and reduces dependency on external financing during commodity swings.
Read all positive factors
Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.13B
Dividend Yield17.48%
Average Volume (3M)714.44K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.1
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth9.33%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees505
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.43
Shares Outstanding168,218,770
10 Day Avg. Volume1,409,385
30 Day Avg. Volume714,440
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.24
Price to Book (P/B)0.62
Price to Sales (P/S)1.33
P/FCF Ratio6.14
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.89
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.00Price Target Upside40.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.51B
Mach Natural Resources LP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas...
How the Company Makes Money
MNR makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons—crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids—from its operated and/or owned interests in wells and associated acreage. Revenue is recognized based on (1) production volumes attribu...
Mach Natural Resources LP Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was overall positive: management reported very strong reserve growth (reserves more than doubled to 705 MMBOE), solid quarterly EBITDA and operating cash flow, historically high returns on capital and sustained distributions, while outlining clear operational plans across Deep Anadarko, San Juan (Mancos) and Oswego. However, notable challenges were reiterated — a pullback in return on capital in 2025, modest quarter-end cash, leverage above the company’s 1.0x target (currently ~1.3x), localized gas basis volatility and high costs/complexity in Deep Anadarko that may require partners or asset monetization. Management emphasized disciplined capital allocation, a 50% reinvestment cap, and a conservative hedging posture, balancing distribution objectives with modest growth. Given the strong operating and financial highlights that outweigh the manageable but meaningful risks, the sentiment is Positive.Positive Updates
Strong Reserve Growth
Year-end 2025 proved reserves more than doubled from March to 705 million BOE (>
100% increase). Additions from development exceeded 2025 production by 18%.
Negative Updates
Leverage Above Long-Term Target
Debt/EBITDA at ~1.3x (management target is 1.0x). Company is effectively on the sidelines for larger M&A until leverage is reduced to target levels.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Reserve Growth
Year-end 2025 proved reserves more than doubled from March to 705 million BOE (>
100% increase). Additions from development exceeded 2025 production by 18%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance for 2026 emphasizes disciplined capital return and reinvestment: target reinvestment rate ≤50% while slightly growing BOE, a rolling hedge program of 50% in year‑1 and 25% in year‑2, and a long‑term net debt/EBITDA target of 1.0x (currently ~1.3x) with a corporate decline of ~17%. Operational plans call for drilling 7–8 Mancos dry‑gas wells (TVD ~7,000 ft; 2–3 mile laterals), targeting a $13M D&C cost (down from $15M for a 3‑mile well that recovers ~24 Bcf with a 60% first‑year decline), while Deep Anadarko locations are projected at $14–15M each with an estimated ultimate recovery of ~19.5 Bcf (~6.5 Bcf/mile; 5–8 Bcf/mile range); the company will move Deep Anadarko from two rigs to one (drilling season Apr 1–Nov) and may return an Oswego oil rig in H2 if WTI stays >$70. The plan contemplates spending “over a couple hundred million” in Deep Anadarko this year but cutting CapEx via the rig reduction, all while preserving distributions (historical distributions include $1.3B since 2018 and $5.67/unit since 2024 with a $0.53/unit most recent payout and a ~15% annualized yield); Q4/2025 context: 154,000 BOE/d (17% oil, 68% gas), 2025 year‑end reserves 705 MMBOE, realized prices $58.14/bbl oil, $2.54/Mcf gas, $21.28/bbl NGLs, total oil & gas revenue $331M (hedges $42M; total revenue incl. midstream $388M), adjusted EBITDA $187M, OCF $169M, development CapEx $252M in 2025 (47% of OCF) and quarterly D&C $77M (46% of OCF).Mach Natural Resources LP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Mar 2024 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.09B | 969.63M | 762.31M | 937.41M | 392.50M |
| Gross Profit | 310.73M | 331.83M | 386.80M | 547.84M | 216.33M |
| EBITDA | 546.86M | 560.74M | 495.38M | 610.28M | 180.72M |
| Net Income | 142.98M | 185.18M | 346.56M | 516.84M | 138.37M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.78B | 2.34B | 2.30B | 887.44M | 525.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 42.63M | 105.78M | 152.79M | 29.42M | 59.27M |
| Total Debt | 1.16B | 766.17M | 824.49M | 99.71M | 85.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.79B | 1.14B | 1.11B | 294.21M | 246.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.35B | 1.20B | 1.19B | 593.23M | 278.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 236.41M | 284.98M | 176.94M | 310.52M | 157.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 506.96M | 505.29M | 491.74M | 553.54M | 198.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -899.16M | -306.32M | -1.03B | -372.66M | -194.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 329.06M | -245.99M | 658.79M | -210.74M | -4.58M |
Mach Natural Resources LP Technical Analysis
Neutral
12.77
Price Trends
13.03
Negative
12.03
Positive
12.33
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
42.85
Neutral
18.33
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNR, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.64, below the 50-day MA of 13.03, and above the 200-day MA of 12.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MNR.
Mach Natural Resources LP Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $1.34B | 18.58 | 17.61% | 12.53% | -12.51% | -59.55% | |
76 Outperform | $1.77B | 11.74 | 12.05% | 13.84% | -2.71% | -113.80% | |
68 Neutral | $2.13B | 10.15 | 8.09% | 17.48% | 9.33% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
| ― | $1.10B | 13.61 | 944.35% | 7.51% | -14.84% | -16.23% | |
65 Neutral | $2.45B | -2.36 | -20.26% | ― | -0.02% | -473.61% | |
59 Neutral | $3.04B | 14.44 | 10.00% | ― | 31.67% | ― |
* Energy Sector Average
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
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12.73%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.