Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.58B
• Dividend Yield: 17.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 238.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.56
• Revenue Growth: 11.56%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 505
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
• EPS (TTM): 0.76
• Shares Outstanding: 118,337,920
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 247,903
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 238,292
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.45
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.18
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.40
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.98
• 1Y Price Target: $19.50
• Price Target Upside: 46.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $16.00 ▲(20.21% Upside)

Mach Natural Resources LP's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation. The company's strategic acquisitions and operational efficiency are positive, but technical indicators suggest caution. Challenges such as lower realized prices and legal settlements also impact the score.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisitions are expected to increase natural gas volumes to 70% and project natural gas to be at least 50% of revenue by 2026, enhancing portfolio diversity and growth potential.

Cash Flow Management

Strong cash generation capabilities and efficient conversion of income into cash indicate financial resilience and ability to fund future investments.

Operational Efficiency

Efficient operations and cost management contribute to sustainable profitability and competitive advantage in the industry.

Negative Factors

Decreasing Gross Profit Margin

A declining gross profit margin could indicate pressure on pricing power or increased costs, potentially affecting long-term profitability.

Legal Settlements

Legal settlements can reduce available cash for distribution and may indicate ongoing legal risks that could impact future financial performance.

Widened Gas Differentials

Widened gas differentials can negatively impact realized revenue, affecting the company's ability to maintain stable cash flows and profitability.

Mach Natural Resources LP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and the panhandle of Texas. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

How the Company Makes Money

MNR generates revenue primarily through the exploration and production of oil and gas resources. The company acquires leases and drilling rights, allowing it to extract hydrocarbons and sell them in the open market. Additionally, MNR may engage in joint ventures and partnerships with other firms to share the financial burdens and risks associated with large-scale projects. Revenue streams also include royalties from mineral rights and income generated from infrastructure investments that facilitate resource extraction. Market conditions, commodity prices, and regulatory environments play significant roles in influencing MNR's earnings.

Mach Natural Resources LP Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mach Natural Resources LP exhibits strong financial health with impressive profitability and cash flow metrics. The company has effectively managed its leverage, as evidenced by a declining debt-to-equity ratio. While revenue growth and profitability margins are commendable, the decrease in gross profit margin and past volatility in free cash flow warrant attention.

Income Statement

Mach Natural Resources LP demonstrates strong profitability with a consistent increase in net profit margin from 19.1% in 2024 to 37.7% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The revenue growth rate of 4.38% in TTM indicates a positive trajectory, although it is lower compared to the previous year's growth. The company maintains healthy EBIT and EBITDA margins, showcasing operational efficiency. However, the gross profit margin has decreased from 69.5% in 2022 to 49.4% in TTM, which could be a concern if the trend continues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio from 0.69 in 2023 to 0.35 in TTM, indicating improved leverage. Return on equity remains strong at 29% in TTM, suggesting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, supporting financial stability. However, the reduction in stockholders' equity from 2022 to TTM could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals robust free cash flow growth of 34.4% in TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.94 in TTM suggests efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.62, reflecting good cash flow management. Despite these strengths, the company experienced negative free cash flow in 2023, highlighting potential volatility in cash flow generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.05B	969.63M	762.31M	1.20B	392.50M
Gross Profit	517.14M	331.83M	386.80M	832.38M	216.33M
EBITDA	572.42M	560.74M	495.38M	768.13M	180.72M
Net Income	394.69M	185.18M	346.56M	516.84M	138.37M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.33B	2.34B	2.30B	887.44M	525.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.78M	105.78M	152.79M	29.42M	59.27M
Total Debt	570.27M	766.17M	824.49M	99.71M	85.80M
Total Liabilities	692.13M	1.14B	1.11B	294.21M	246.68M
Stockholders Equity	1.64B	1.20B	1.19B	593.23M	278.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	323.00M	284.98M	-577.91M	310.52M	157.45M
Operating Cash Flow	517.17M	505.29M	491.74M	553.54M	198.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-433.45M	-306.32M	-1.03B	-372.66M	-194.74M
Financing Cash Flow	-214.57M	-245.99M	658.79M	-210.74M	-4.58M

Mach Natural Resources LP Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.31
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.31 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.60, below the 50-day MA of 13.98, and below the 200-day MA of 13.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MNR.

Mach Natural Resources LP Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNR	77 Outperform	$1.58B	6.78	16.84%	17.05%	11.56%	―
DMLP	75 Outperform	1.24B	14.52	24.51%	11.79%	4.58%	-32.82%
TALO	74 Outperform	1.79B	-10.53	-2.77%	―	10.59%	-3044.85%
CRGY	67 Neutral	2.49B	-55.07	0.81%	4.91%	32.84%	-755.17%
HPK	64 Neutral	915.72M	8.50	7.34%	2.20%	-20.30%	-27.90%
BKV	61 Neutral	2.03B	-105.79	-1.17%	―	13.20%	55.44%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%

Mach Natural Resources LP Corporate Events

Mach Natural Resources LP Announces Major Acquisitions

Mach Natural Resources LP reported its financial and operational results for the second quarter of 2025, highlighting a net income of $90 million and an average production of 83.6 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.38 per common unit and announced two significant acquisitions for approximately $1.3 billion, aimed at enhancing its scale and diversifying its portfolio with entries into the Permian Basin and San Juan Basin, which are expected to drive long-term growth and maximize unitholder value.

Mach Natural Resources Announces Major Acquisitions

On July 9, 2025, Mach Natural Resources LP announced two significant acquisitions: the purchase of oil and gas assets from Sabinal Energy in the Permian Basin and entities owning assets managed by IKAV Energy in the San Juan Basin. The combined transactions, valued at approximately $1.3 billion, are expected to nearly double Mach’s production and diversify its asset base across three prolific basins. These acquisitions are anticipated to be immediately accretive to cash available for distribution, enhancing Mach’s strategic growth platform and positioning it as a consolidator in the industry.

Mach Natural Resources Releases New Investor Presentation

On June 10, 2025, Mach Natural Resources LP released a new investor presentation on its website. This announcement may impact stakeholders by providing updated insights into the company’s strategic direction and operational plans.