Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) AI Stock Analysis

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Mach Natural Resources LP

(NYSE:MNR)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$15.00

▲(6.46%Upside)

The overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and valuation metrics, supported by positive corporate events. These factors are slightly tempered by neutral technical indicators, reflecting a balanced outlook.

Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.67B

Dividend Yield22.43%

Average Volume (3M)319.66K

Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8

Beta (1Y)0.67

Revenue GrowthN/A

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees505

SectorEnergy

Sector Strength54

IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.54

Shares Outstanding118,336,365

10 Day Avg. Volume329,782

30 Day Avg. Volume319,656

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio<0.01

Price to Book (P/B)2.94

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio5.61

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.48

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.79

Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.86

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$21.00

Price Target Upside49.04% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering4

Mach Natural Resources LP Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMach Natural Resources LP (MNR) is an energy company operating in the natural resources sector, primarily focused on the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. The company leverages advanced technologies and strategic asset management to maximize resource extraction and efficiency in its operations.

How the Company Makes MoneyMach Natural Resources LP generates revenue through the sale of crude oil and natural gas extracted from its owned and operated wells. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to optimize production and expand its asset base. Revenue streams are primarily derived from the sale of these hydrocarbons on the open market, where prices are influenced by global demand, geopolitical factors, and market speculation. Additionally, Mach Natural Resources LP may enter into hedging contracts to stabilize cash flow amid volatile commodity prices.

Mach Natural Resources LP Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 10.68%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

Mach Natural Resources demonstrated strong financial health and strategic execution despite facing low natural gas prices and increased competition. The company maintained a robust distribution strategy and continued efficient operations, planning to capitalize on higher natural gas prices in 2025.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance

Mach Natural Resources maintained a low leverage with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.8x, down from 1.0x. The company also achieved a free cash flow of $8.43 per BOE and distributed $310 million to unitholders, maintaining a disciplined reinvestment rate of 47%.

Successful Acquisitions and Drilling

The company made 20 acquisitions since 2018, accumulating over 1 million acres and acquiring assets for $65 million that contributed $78 million of EBITDA in 2024. 35% of the wells drilled achieved over 100% rates of return, and the company plans to increase rigs in 2025 due to higher natural gas prices.

Efficient Operations

Mach reduced LOE by 25% to 35% in every acquisition and maintained low drilling and completion costs, achieving a median payout period of 15 months.

Negative Updates

Low Natural Gas Prices in 2024

The year 2024 recorded the lowest natural gas prices since the early 1990s, impacting the company's revenue despite maintaining strong distribution yields.

Increased Competition in Mid-Continent

The Mid-Continent has seen increased interest from well-capitalized competitors, making acquisitions more challenging.

Company Guidance

In the recent earnings call, Mach Natural Resources emphasized their strategic pillars for fiscal year 2024, focusing on maintaining financial strength, disciplined execution, reinvestment rates, and maximizing cash distributions. The company aims for a long-term debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1x or less, emphasizing low leverage to navigate market volatility. They reported reducing lease operating expenses (LOE) by 25-35% across acquisitions, which contributed to a 2024 EBITDA of $601 million. The reinvestment rate was kept under 50% of operating cash flow, achieving peer-leading variable distributions while targeting projects with at least 50% internal rates of return (IRR). They drilled 45 wells in their Oswego and Woodford programs, with over 35% achieving more than 100% rates of return. The company anticipates spending $225 to $240 million on drilling and completion in 2025, maintaining nearly flat production levels. They reported a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.8x, and distributed $310 million to unitholders in 2024, achieving a cash return on capital invested of 25%. The strategic approach is underscored by a focus on acquisitions that are accretive to distributions, with plans to bring in additional rigs and continue disciplined reinvestment, even amidst fluctuating commodity prices.

Mach Natural Resources LP Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mach Natural Resources LP exhibits a strong profitability profile with robust cash flow metrics. While there is a slight decline in revenue and net income, the balance sheet remains solid with manageable leverage, and cash flow generation is strong.

Income Statement

Positive

The company exhibits a strong gross profit margin and stable net profit margin, indicating efficient cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting solid operational performance. However, there is a slight decline in revenue and net income in the latest TTM period, suggesting potential challenges in sustaining growth amidst market fluctuations.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a favorable equity ratio, highlighting a strong equity base. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable, signaling manageable leverage. Return on equity remains healthy, although there is a slight decline in equity growth, which could impact future capital structure flexibility.

Cash Flow

Positive

The company demonstrates strong cash flow generation capabilities with a high operating cash flow to net income ratio. The free cash flow growth is impressive, indicating good cash management and investment strategies. However, a careful watch on capital expenditures is necessary to maintain this positive cash flow trend.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
961.88M	969.63M	762.31M	1.20B	392.50M
	Gross Profit
477.67M	331.83M	386.80M	832.38M	216.33M
	EBIT
275.42M	290.99M	359.14M	644.41M	155.41M
	EBITDA
538.14M	560.74M	495.38M	768.13M	180.72M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
344.54M	370.36M	346.56M	516.84M	138.37M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
7.79M	105.78M	152.79M	29.42M	59.27M
	Total Assets
2.24B	2.34B	2.30B	887.44M	525.38M
	Total Debt
464.99M	766.17M	824.49M	99.71M	85.80M
	Net Debt
457.20M	660.39M	671.69M	70.29M	26.53M
	Total Liabilities
581.89M	1.14B	1.11B	294.21M	246.68M
	Stockholders Equity
1.66B	1.55B	1.19B	593.23M	278.70M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
337.59M	284.98M	-577.91M	310.52M	157.45M
	Operating Cash Flow
503.86M	505.29M	491.74M	553.54M	198.46M
	Investing Cash Flow
-329.61M	-306.32M	-1.03B	-372.66M	-194.74M
	Financing Cash Flow
-317.76M	-245.99M	658.79M	-210.74M	-4.58M

Mach Natural Resources LP Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price14.09

Price Trends

50DMA

13.17

Positive

100DMA

13.96

Positive

200DMA

14.34

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.16

Negative

RSI

70.06

Negative

STOCH

90.26

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.50, above the 50-day MA of 13.17, and below the 200-day MA of 14.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.06 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MNR.

Mach Natural Resources LP Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (58)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MNR	77 Outperform	$1.67B	8.84	12.64%	22.43%	―	―
HPK	75 Outperform	$1.43B	12.92	7.09%	1.41%	-11.59%	-28.62%
DMLP	74 Outperform	$1.33B	13.45	33.71%	10.31%	12.35%	-18.66%
TALO	71 Outperform	$1.61B	63.84	0.95%	―	31.40%	92.89%
Sector *	58 Neutral	$7.43B	3.43	-4.49%	10.08%	0.81%	-49.42%
CRGY	56 Neutral	$2.92B	23.27	-3.54%	5.07%	31.58%	-114.70%
BKV	56 Neutral	$1.92B	―	-13.36%	―	2.24%	-919.48%

* Energy Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MNR

Mach Natural Resources LP

14.42

-1.30

-8.27%

DMLP

Dorchester Minerals

28.31

1.34

4.97%

TALO

Talos Energy

9.11

-1.13

-11.04%

HPK

HighPeak Energy

11.33

-2.08

-15.51%

CRGY

Crescent Energy Company Class A

9.52

-1.87

-16.42%

BKV

BKV Corporation

23.34

5.29

29.31%

Mach Natural Resources LP Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy

Mach Natural Resources Releases New Investor Presentation

Neutral

Jun 11, 2025

On June 10, 2025, Mach Natural Resources LP released a new investor presentation on its website. This announcement may impact stakeholders by providing updated insights into the company’s strategic direction and operational plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNR) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mach Natural Resources LP stock, see the MNR Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Mach Natural Resources LP Reports Q1 2025 Results

Positive

May 8, 2025

Mach Natural Resources LP reported its first quarter 2025 financial and operational results, highlighting a net income of $16 million and an average production of 80.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.79 per common unit and successfully closed a senior secured reserve-based revolving credit facility with an initial borrowing base of $750 million. Additionally, Mach acquired oil and gas assets from XTO Energy for $60 million, reinforcing its market position and strategic focus on transitioning its drilling program toward natural gas.

M&A TransactionsDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Mach Natural Resources Reports Strong Q4 2024 Results

Positive

Mar 13, 2025

Mach Natural Resources LP reported its financial and operational results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, highlighting a net income of $37 million for the quarter and $185 million for the year. The company successfully integrated two acquisitions and closed a bolt-on acquisition, improving its financial position by refinancing its term loan with a new revolving credit facility. Mach declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.50 per unit for the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting its commitment to maximizing shareholder returns. The company plans to invest $260 million to $280 million in development for 2025, with a focus on maintaining a reinvestment rate of no more than 50% of operating cash flow.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.