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Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR)
NYSE:MNR
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Mach Natural Resources LP
(NYSE:MNR)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(26.70% Upside)
Mach Natural Resources LP is well-positioned with strong financial performance, attractive valuation, and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's strategic acquisitions and high dividend yield are significant strengths, while potential risks include operational margin pressures and increased debt levels.
Positive Factors
Strategic Acquisitions
These acquisitions enhance scale and diversification, supporting long-term growth and increasing cash available for distribution significantly over time.
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates effective market positioning and product demand, supporting future profitability and expansion opportunities.
Cash Returns on Capital
High cash returns on capital demonstrate efficient capital allocation and strong profitability, enhancing shareholder value over the long term.
Negative Factors
Increased Debt Levels
Higher leverage increases financial risk and could limit flexibility in adverse market conditions, impacting long-term financial stability.
Declining Free Cash Flow
Decreasing free cash flow growth may constrain future investments and limit the company's ability to capitalize on new opportunities.
EBIT and EBITDA Margin Decline
Declining margins suggest potential cost pressures or inefficiencies, which could erode profitability if not addressed.
Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.86B
Dividend Yield17.48%
Average Volume (3M)338.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.3
Beta (1Y)0.72
Revenue Growth9.33%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees505
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.28
Shares Outstanding168,422,800
10 Day Avg. Volume351,115
30 Day Avg. Volume338,453
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)1.40
Price to Sales (P/S)1.73
P/FCF Ratio5.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.49
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.67Price Target Upside68.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)1.28
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.49B
Mach Natural Resources LP Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionMach Natural Resources LP, an independent upstream oil and gas company, focuses on the acquisition, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves in the Anadarko Basin region of Western Oklahoma, Southern Kansas, and the panhandle of Texas. The company was incorporated in 2023 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
How the Company Makes MoneyMach Natural Resources LP generates revenue primarily through the sale of extracted oil and natural gas. The company has various revenue streams, including direct sales to refineries and energy companies, long-term contracts with established partners, and spot market transactions. MNR also benefits from strategic partnerships with other industry players, which enhance its market reach and operational capabilities. Additionally, the company may engage in joint ventures and collaborations that provide access to new resources and technologies, further driving its earnings potential.
Mach Natural Resources LP Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment with significant achievements in acquisitions, production efficiency, and strategic positioning for future growth, particularly in natural gas. However, challenges such as increased debt levels and nonrecurring costs were also noted.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Acquisitions and Strategic Expansion
The IKAV and Sabinal acquisitions have been transformational, adding significant scale and diversification. These acquisitions are expected to be accretive to cash available for distribution by 8% in year 1, rising to 28% in year 5.
Strong Production and Revenue Metrics
For the quarter, production was 94,000 BOE per day, with 21% oil, 56% natural gas, and 23% NGLs. Total revenues, including hedges and midstream activities, totaled $273 million.
Efficient Capital Management
Projected capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to decrease by 8% without affecting production guidance. This reflects improved capital efficiency and strategic focus on gas projects.
High Cash Returns on Capital Invested
The company has maintained a cash return on capital invested of more than 30% per year over the past 5 years, with a distribution of $0.27 per unit in the third quarter.
Positive Outlook for Natural Gas Demand
Demand for natural gas is expected to increase, particularly due to LNG exports. This is anticipated to add 24 Bcf a day of demand between 2026 and 2030.
Negative Updates
Increased Debt Levels
Post-acquisitions, the company's debt-to-EBITDA ratio has increased to above 1.3x leverage, which is above the long-term goal of around 1x leverage.
Nonrecurring Deal Costs Impacting G&A
The IKAV deal incurred approximately $13 million in nonrecurring deal costs, which affected general and administrative expenses and reduced the distribution by about $0.08 per unit.
Concerns Over Natural Gas Pricing and Demand
There is cautious sentiment regarding natural gas pricing due to full storage and reliance on weather conditions. The strip is currently not as competitive with oil pricing.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter earnings call, Mount Natural Resources provided comprehensive guidance focused on maintaining financial strength, disciplined execution, disciplined reinvestment rate, and delivering industry-leading cash returns. The company aims to reduce its current debt-to-EBITDA ratio from above 1.3x to around 1x over time, primarily through increasing EBITDA rather than reducing CapEx or using its cash available for distribution (CAD). They have successfully secured acquisitions, such as IKAV and Sabinal, which are expected to be accretive to CAD by 8% in the first year, rising to 28% by the fifth year. The company targets a reinvestment rate of less than 50% due to its low production decline rate of 15%, which allows for significant cash returns to unitholders, exemplified by a declared distribution of $0.27 per unit in the third quarter. Additionally, Mount Natural Resources plans to continue focusing its 2026 development plan on dry gas projects in the Deep Anadarko and San Juan basins, highlighting their ability to adjust CapEx based on pricing conditions, while maintaining a high cash return on capital invested of more than 30% annually over the past five years.Mach Natural Resources LP Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mach Natural Resources LP demonstrates strong financial performance with impressive revenue and cash flow growth. The company maintains solid profitability margins, though there is a slight decline in return on equity. The balance sheet is stable, and cash flow management is efficient.Income Statement
Mach Natural Resources LP shows a strong revenue growth trajectory with a TTM revenue growth rate of 162.7%. The gross profit margin is healthy at 43.4%, and the net profit margin is robust at 27.4%. However, the EBIT margin has decreased over time, indicating potential cost pressures. Overall, the income statement reflects solid profitability and growth.Balance Sheet
The company maintains a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49 in the TTM period, indicating a balanced approach to leverage. The return on equity is reasonable at 17.8%, though it has decreased from previous years. The equity ratio stands at 61.9%, suggesting a stable financial structure. The balance sheet is stable but shows a slight decline in return metrics.Cash Flow
Cash flow performance is strong, with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 145.8% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.36, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 0.90, indicating efficient cash generation. The cash flow statement highlights strong liquidity and cash management.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.02B | 969.63M | 762.31M | 937.41M | 392.50M |
| Gross Profit | 410.74M | 331.83M | 386.80M | 547.84M | 216.33M |
| EBITDA | 529.63M | 560.74M | 495.38M | 610.28M | 180.72M |
| Net Income | 291.59M | 185.18M | 346.56M | 516.84M | 138.37M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.77B | 2.34B | 2.30B | 887.44M | 525.38M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 53.60M | 105.78M | 152.79M | 29.42M | 59.27M |
| Total Debt | 1.17B | 766.17M | 824.49M | 99.71M | 85.80M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.81B | 1.14B | 1.11B | 294.21M | 246.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.96B | 1.20B | 1.19B | 593.23M | 278.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 219.90M | 284.98M | 176.94M | 310.52M | 157.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 511.87M | 505.29M | 491.74M | 553.54M | 198.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -935.41M | -306.32M | -1.03B | -372.66M | -194.74M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 292.61M | -245.99M | 658.79M | -210.74M | -4.58M |
Mach Natural Resources LP Technical Analysis
Negative
11.05
Price Trends
11.62
Negative
12.27
Negative
12.78
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Positive
42.11
Neutral
22.66
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.32, below the 50-day MA of 11.62, and below the 200-day MA of 12.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MNR.
Mach Natural Resources LP Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $1.86B | 11.28 | 6.68% | 17.48% | 9.33% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $976.67M | 12.36 | 986.82% | 7.51% | -14.84% | -16.23% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
64 Neutral | $1.45B | -66.14 | 4.73% | 13.84% | -2.71% | -113.80% | |
63 Neutral | $1.85B | -5.41 | -13.71% | ― | -0.02% | -473.61% | |
62 Neutral | $2.47B | 49.67 | 2.62% | ― | 31.67% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $1.11B | 20.60 | 14.72% | 12.53% | -12.51% | -59.55% |
* Energy Sector Average
MNR
Mach Natural Resources LP
11.05
-3.96
-26.38%
DMLP
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22.90
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KRP
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11.82
-2.72
-18.71%
TALO
Talos Energy
10.90
0.24
2.25%
BKV
BKV Corporation
25.72
1.85
7.75%
Mach Natural Resources LP Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mach Natural Resources appoints Christopher Burn to Board
Neutral
Dec 17, 2025
On December 15, 2025, Francis A. Keating II resigned as a director and committee member of Mach Natural Resources GP LLC’s Board without any disagreements regarding company management or operations. On the same date, Christopher J. Burn was appointed as a director and committee member, with extensive investment and research experience, including roles at Goshen Investments, LLC and Archegos Capital Management LLC. Mr. Burn’s appointment strengthens the Board with his industry expertise, and he will receive compensation aligned with the company’s non-employee director policies, including an award of phantom units valued at $150,000. The partnership emphasized compliance with NYSE standards and confirmed Mr. Burn’s independent director status, further solidifying governance reliability.
The most recent analyst rating on (MNR) stock is a Buy with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mach Natural Resources LP stock, see the MNR Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Mach Natural Resources LP Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025
Mach Natural Resources LP announced its financial and operational results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a net loss of $36 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $124 million. The company declared a quarterly cash distribution of $0.27 per common unit and highlighted its recent acquisitions in the Permian and San Juan Basins, which have expanded its operational scale. Mach also updated its 2026 outlook, reducing its drilling and completion capital program by 18% while maintaining production guidance, reflecting strong capital efficiency and well performance.
The most recent analyst rating on (MNR) stock is a Buy with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mach Natural Resources LP stock, see the MNR Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.