Grupo Supervielle SA (SUPV)
NYSE:SUPV
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Grupo Supervielle SA
(NYSE:SUPV)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$9.50
â–Ľ(-1.66% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is held down primarily by weakened financial performance (return to losses, higher leverage, and a sharp cash-flow reversal). Technicals are neutral with no clear bullish trend, and valuation is constrained by negative earnings and reduced dividend visibility. Offsetting these risks, the latest earnings call provided constructive 2026 guidance and highlighted capital strength, but credit-quality headwinds remain a key near-term overhang.
Positive Factors
Capital Strength
A CET1 ratio of 15.4% provides a durable capital buffer to absorb credit losses and fund loan growth. This higher regulatory capital level increases resilience to macro stress, supports planned expansion, and reduces near-term recapitalization risk for the bank.
Negative Factors
Provisioning Spike & Loss
A large sequential provisioning increase drove a significant net loss, signaling material credit stress. Elevated provisioning consumes capital and earnings, reducing internal financing capacity and raising the risk that earnings recovery will be slower and more volatile over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capital Strength
A CET1 ratio of 15.4% provides a durable capital buffer to absorb credit losses and fund loan growth. This higher regulatory capital level increases resilience to macro stress, supports planned expansion, and reduces near-term recapitalization risk for the bank.
Read all positive factors
Grupo Supervielle SA (SUPV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$947.36M
Dividend Yield1.54%
Average Volume (3M)899.48K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth-50.96%
EPS Growth-89.23%
CountryUS
Employees3,456
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.15
Shares Outstanding78,996,826
10 Day Avg. Volume699,629
30 Day Avg. Volume899,481
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio-1.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap743.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-9.60
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.83Price Target Upside32.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)$889.34M
Grupo Supervielle SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grupo Supervielle S.A., a financial services holding company, provides various banking products and services in Argentina. The company operates through Personal and Business Banking, Corporate Banking, Treasury and Finance, Capital Markets and Str...
How the Company Makes Money
Grupo Supervielle primarily makes money through its banking subsidiaries by earning net interest income and charging fee-based commissions. A key revenue stream is interest earned on loans (e.g., consumer, SME, and commercial credit) and other int...
Grupo Supervielle SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of operational resilience and near-term challenges. Highlights include strong loan growth (led by corporate lending), a materially stronger capital position (CET1 at 15.4%), a rebound in net financial income and NIM, improved core deposit traction, cost discipline and accelerating momentum at the digital brokerage (EOL). Offsetting these positives are a quarterly net loss driven by a 75% sequential increase in provisions, elevated net cost of risk (10.4% in the quarter), a rise in NPLs to 5.0%, and a 6% sequential decline in total deposits due to tactical deleveraging. Management provided constructive guidance for 2026 (loans, deposits, NIM, cost of risk and ROE) and signaled that provisioning trends may have peaked, supporting an optimistic outlook. On balance, operational progress and capital strength appear to outweigh near-term credit and macro pressures, supporting a cautiously positive outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Loan Growth
Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year; commercial (corporate) lending led expansion, up 25% quarter-over-quarter and 64% year-over-year, and now represents 63% of the loan portfolio.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Net Loss and Provisioning Spike
Reported an attributable net loss of ~AR 19.5 billion in 4Q'25, although improved from the ~AR 55 billion loss in the prior quarter. Loan loss provisions increased ~75% sequentially and were the primary driver of the quarterly loss.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Loan Growth
Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year; commercial (corporate) lending led expansion, up 25% quarter-over-quarter and 64% year-over-year, and now represents 63% of the loan portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to real loan growth of 25–30% (led by corporate lending, with peso loans expected to grow faster than dollar loans), deposit growth of 20–25% (peso deposits to drive the mix and tax-amnesty upside for dollar balances), an NPL ratio of 5–6% for the year with a temporary peak in 1Q26, net cost of risk of 6.0–6.5%, NIM of 14–16%, net fee income up ~5% in real terms, structural operating expenses broadly stable in real terms, ROE of 4–9% for 2026 (with sequential improvement expected and a path to double-digit ROE by year-end 2026 and high‑teens by 2027–28 under normalization), and an ending CET1 ratio targeted at 11–13%; these projections assume macro parameters of ~22.4% inflation, 3.7% GDP growth and an exchange rate of ~1,750 ARS/USD by end‑2026.Grupo Supervielle SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.33T | 2.04T | 3.02T | 1.96T | 793.88B |
| Gross Profit | 918.05B | 1.16T | 1.23T | 859.83B | 381.48B |
| EBITDA | -112.72B | 195.12B | 257.67B | 10.04B | 16.79B |
| Net Income | -56.60B | 104.49B | 112.40B | -34.09B | -10.52B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.79T | 4.51T | 4.48T | 2.17T | 760.48B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.60T | 662.73B | 553.95B | 158.18B | 82.66B |
| Total Debt | 1.05T | 91.25B | 8.27B | 6.63B | 4.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.78T | 3.71T | 3.74T | 1.88T | 660.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.01T | 797.74B | 743.40B | 287.32B | 100.34B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.13T | 461.47B | 133.20B | 539.30B | 273.86B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.05T | 518.86B | 157.95B | 565.34B | 304.33B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.13T | -46.24B | -18.89B | -23.53B | -28.48B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 972.13B | -1.05T | -1.00T | -599.33B | -329.09B |
Grupo Supervielle SA Technical Analysis
Positive
9.66
Price Trends
9.78
Negative
10.51
Negative
9.61
Positive
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
55.23
Neutral
77.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUPV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.81, below the 50-day MA of 9.78, and above the 200-day MA of 9.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SUPV.
Grupo Supervielle SA Risk Analysis
Grupo Supervielle SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grupo Supervielle SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Grupo Supervielle SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $549.88M | 9.10 | 21.32% | 2.31% | 36.60% | 92.63% | |
66 Neutral | $601.02M | 11.79 | 10.58% | 3.59% | 6.86% | 6.11% | |
66 Neutral | $681.56M | 13.10 | 5.85% | 0.70% | 9.16% | 6.95% | |
49 Neutral | $588.45M | 576.05 | 0.11% | 4.38% | 6.08% | 52.64% | |
46 Neutral | $489.27M | -15.87 | -15.74% | ― | -6.47% | -75.82% | |
45 Neutral | $947.36M | -26.53 | -5.10% | 1.54% | -50.96% | -89.23% |
* Financial Sector Average
SUPV
Grupo Supervielle SA
9.66
-3.27
-25.31%
AROW
Arrow Financial
36.40
13.20
56.86%
NFBK
Northfield Bancorp
14.09
4.93
53.89%
NRIM
Northrim Bancorp
24.85
8.16
48.86%
PGC
Peapack-Gladstone Financial
38.79
14.02
56.59%
FFWM
First Foundation
5.90
1.26
27.16%
Grupo Supervielle SA Corporate Events
Grupo Supervielle Files 2025 Year-End Consolidated Financial Statements
Apr 1, 2026
Grupo Supervielle S.A. reported its consolidated and separate financial statements for the financial year ended December 31, 2025, prepared in homogeneous currency on a comparative basis with 2024. The filing details a broad range of disclosures, ...
Grupo Supervielle Calls Virtual Shareholders’ Meeting to Tackle 2025 Loss and Bylaw Changes
Mar 17, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Grupo Supervielle’s board called an ordinary and extraordinary shareholders’ meeting for April 23, 2026, to be held virtually via Microsoft Teams as allowed under its bylaws. The meeting will review financial stateme...
Grupo Supervielle Cancels Treasury Shares and Reduces Share Capital
Feb 12, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Grupo Supervielle S.A. announced that its board had acknowledged the automatic cancellation of 1,739,881 Class B common shares, each with one vote, under Article 67 of Argentina’s Capital Markets Law. The cancellation c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.