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Grupo Supervielle SA (SUPV)
NYSE:SUPV

Grupo Supervielle SA (SUPV) AI Stock Analysis

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SUPV

Grupo Supervielle SA

(NYSE:SUPV)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$12.50
▲(16.71% Upside)
Grupo Supervielle SA's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and moderate technical indicators. However, valuation concerns and mixed earnings call sentiment, with significant net losses and asset quality challenges, weigh on the score. The company's strategic initiatives and positive political outlook offer potential upside.
Positive Factors
Strong Loan Growth
The significant loan growth indicates strong demand for the company's lending products and suggests effective market penetration, supporting long-term revenue expansion.
Innovative Banking Initiatives
These initiatives enhance customer experience and operational efficiency, potentially increasing customer retention and attracting new clients, which supports sustainable growth.
Improved Financial Performance
The improved financial performance reflects effective cost management and revenue generation, indicating robust profitability and operational efficiency.
Negative Factors
Asset Quality Concerns
Rising non-performing loans suggest potential challenges in credit risk management, which could impact future profitability and require increased provisions.
Cost of Risk and Loan Loss Provisions
Increased provisions indicate higher perceived risk in the loan portfolio, which may pressure margins and reduce financial flexibility.
Reduced Fee Income
Declining fee income suggests challenges in maintaining ancillary revenue streams, potentially impacting overall revenue diversification and stability.

Grupo Supervielle SA (SUPV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Grupo Supervielle SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGrupo Supervielle S.A., a financial services holding company, provides various banking products and services in Argentina. The company operates through Personal and Business Banking, Corporate Banking, Treasury and Finance, Capital Markets and Structuring, and Support Areas segments. It offers savings accounts, time and demand deposits, and checking accounts; various loan products, including personal, consumer, mortgage, unsecured, and car loans; overdrafts; loans with special facilities for project and working capital financing; and leasing, bank guarantees for tenants, salary advances, domestic and international factoring, international guarantees and letters of credit, payroll payment plans, credit cards, debit cards, and senior citizens benefit payment services, as well as financial services and investments, such as mutual funds and guarantees. The company also provides foreign trade and cash management; advisory services; treasury services; insurance products comprising personal accidents, protected bag, unemployment, total protection, and pets insurance policies; and asset management and other services, as well as operates as an online broker. As of December 31, 2021, it operates through a network of 298 access points, including 184 bank branches, 10 banking sales and collection centers, 79 points of sales, 20 Tarjeta Automática branches, and 5 Mila branches, as well as 450 ATMs, 230 self-service terminals, and 298 ATMs with biometric identification. The company was formerly known as Inversiones y Participaciones S.A. and changed its name to Grupo Supervielle S.A. in November 2008. Grupo Supervielle S.A. was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
How the Company Makes MoneyGrupo Supervielle generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income is interest income from loans provided to customers, which includes personal, auto, and mortgage loans. Additionally, the company earns fees from various banking services such as transaction fees, account maintenance fees, and credit card fees. Investment services and asset management also contribute to revenue through advisory fees and management fees. Strategic partnerships with fintech companies and other financial institutions enhance its service offerings and customer reach, further bolstering its earnings. The company's focus on digital banking solutions allows it to tap into the growing demand for online financial services, increasing its market share and overall profitability.

Grupo Supervielle SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 25, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong loan and deposit growth, along with a positive political outlook post-elections. However, these were offset by significant net losses, margin compression, and asset quality challenges. The overall sentiment is mixed, with both positive strategic initiatives and concerning financial metrics.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Loan and Deposit Growth
Loan growth remains solid, up 8% in real terms, slightly ahead of the system, and deposit growth was strong, up 15% quarter-on-quarter in real terms and over 40% year-on-year. Dollar deposits climbed to another record high, up 31% sequentially.
Positive Political and Economic Outlook
Post-election confidence is improving in Argentina, with interest rates declining sharply and monetary conditions slowly easing, indicating early signs of stabilization.
Strategic Initiatives Gaining Traction
The company's SuperApp is scaling, enhancing customer engagement, and expanding cross-sell opportunities, particularly at Yole with strong volume and fee growth.
Negative Updates
Significant Net Loss
The company recorded a net loss of ARS 50.3 billion in the third quarter of 2025, impacted by systemic pressures and a very tight monetary policy.
Margin Compression
Net financial income declined by 43% sequentially due to high interest rates and regulatory headwinds, with peso NIM declining to 11.7% and total NIM falling to 10.8%.
Asset Quality Challenges
Asset quality weakened with the NPL ratio rising to 3.9%, driven by the retail segment. The company expects NPLs to peak in the fourth quarter.
Company Guidance
During Grupo Supervielle's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance for the upcoming financial year, projecting real loan growth between 35% and 40%, led predominantly by corporate lending, while retail growth is expected to gradually resume as disposable income improves. Deposits are anticipated to grow by 30% to 35%, with further increases in U.S. dollar-denominated balances. Asset quality is expected to remain challenged, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio forecasted between 4.7% and 5.1%, and a net cost of risk projected at 5.8% to 6.3%. The company anticipates net interest margin (NIM) to range between 15% and 18%, impacted by high interest rates and reserve requirements. Additionally, net fee income is expected to grow by 5% in real terms, while operating expenses are projected to decline by 8% to 10%. The full-year return on equity (ROE) is expected to range between negative 5% and 0%, and the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio is anticipated to be between 12.5% and 13.5% by year-end. The company plans to provide a preliminary outlook for 2026 early next year, once there is greater clarity on reserve requirements, liquidity conditions, and the broader macroeconomic framework.

Grupo Supervielle SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Grupo Supervielle SA exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and profitability improvement. The balance sheet reflects low leverage and effective equity usage, while cash flows are solid, supporting operational and strategic flexibility. However, the low debt ratio may limit growth opportunities.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Grupo Supervielle SA has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with total revenue almost doubling from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains high at 100% since revenue equals gross profit, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, reflecting improved profitability. However, the absence of EBITDA limits some analysis of operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company demonstrates a solid equity position, with an equity ratio of 18.15% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.006, indicating minimal leverage and strong financial stability. Return on equity is healthy, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. However, the banking industry typically carries higher leverage, and a low debt ratio may limit growth opportunities.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Grupo Supervielle SA has displayed robust free cash flow growth and strong operating cash flow, which more than covers net income, signifying good cash generation capability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, ensuring that the company generates more cash than it reports as profit. However, fluctuations in financing cash flow signal potential variability in capital structure management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.36T2.04T3.02T1.96T793.88B242.36B
Gross Profit847.34B1.16T1.23T859.83B381.48B134.68B
EBITDA68.92B195.12B257.67B10.04B16.79B19.35B
Net Income-14.04B104.49B112.40B-34.09B-10.52B10.29B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.37T4.51T4.48T2.17T760.48B376.19B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.00662.73B553.95B158.18B82.66B56.98B
Total Debt360.21B91.25B8.27B6.63B4.71B9.89B
Total Liabilities6.51T3.71T3.74T1.88T660.06B322.34B
Stockholders Equity851.88B797.74B743.40B287.32B100.34B53.81B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow25.82B461.47B133.20B539.30B273.86B-16.94B
Operating Cash Flow37.36B518.86B157.95B565.34B304.33B-9.81B
Investing Cash Flow-37.76B-46.24B-18.89B-23.53B-28.48B-6.57B
Financing Cash Flow330.61B-1.05T-1.00T-599.33B-329.09B22.28B

Grupo Supervielle SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price10.71
Price Trends
50DMA
11.31
Negative
100DMA
9.11
Positive
200DMA
10.65
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Positive
RSI
42.32
Neutral
STOCH
9.27
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUPV, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.69, below the 50-day MA of 11.31, and above the 200-day MA of 10.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.27 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SUPV.

Grupo Supervielle SA Risk Analysis

Grupo Supervielle SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grupo Supervielle SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Grupo Supervielle SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$639.30M10.3021.92%2.31%36.60%92.63%
78
Outperform
$537.17M15.718.49%3.59%6.86%6.11%
74
Outperform
$1.04B55.262.35%1.54%-50.96%-89.23%
72
Outperform
$516.38M15.185.50%0.70%9.16%6.95%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
65
Neutral
$495.04M12.145.56%4.38%6.08%52.64%
48
Neutral
$516.37M-3.18-16.22%-6.47%-75.82%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SUPV
Grupo Supervielle SA
10.71
-5.88
-35.44%
AROW
Arrow Financial
32.67
6.14
23.14%
NFBK
Northfield Bancorp
11.84
0.69
6.19%
NRIM
Northrim Bancorp
28.94
9.46
48.56%
PGC
Peapack-Gladstone Financial
29.41
-2.48
-7.78%
FFWM
First Foundation
6.23
-0.16
-2.50%

Grupo Supervielle SA Corporate Events

Grupo Supervielle Cuts Capital After Automatic Cancellation of Class B Treasury Shares
Dec 30, 2025

On December 30, 2025, Grupo Supervielle S.A. reported that its Board of Directors acknowledged the automatic cancellation of 2,422,403 Class B common treasury shares, each with one vote, in accordance with Article 67 of Argentina’s Capital Markets Law. The cancellation applied to shares acquired between November 25 and December 30, 2022, which were not disposed of within the three-year regulatory holding period, triggering an automatic reduction in the company’s share capital by the nominal value of the cancelled stock. Following this adjustment, effective December 30, 2025, Grupo Supervielle’s share capital was reduced to Ps. 444,411,711, now comprised of 61,738,188 Class A shares and 382,673,523 Class B shares, a move that slightly tightens the equity base and marginally alters the capital structure for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUPV) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grupo Supervielle SA stock, see the SUPV Stock Forecast page.

Grupo Supervielle Cancels Treasury Shares, Trimming Share Capital in August 2025
Dec 29, 2025

On August 13, 2025, Grupo Supervielle S.A.’s board acknowledged the automatic cancellation of 472,987 Class B common treasury shares, which had been originally acquired between August 3 and August 12, 2022 and remained in the company’s portfolio beyond the three-year holding limit set by Argentina’s Capital Markets Law. As a result of this regulatory-driven cancellation, the company’s share capital was reduced by the nominal value of the cancelled shares, leaving total capital at Ps. 456,249,335 as of August 13, 2025, composed of 61,738,188 Class A shares and 394,511,147 Class B shares, a move that marginally adjusts the capital structure and share count for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUPV) stock is a Buy with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grupo Supervielle SA stock, see the SUPV Stock Forecast page.

Grupo Supervielle Announces Cancellation of Class B Treasury Shares
Nov 26, 2025

On November 25, 2025, Grupo Supervielle S.A. announced the automatic cancellation of 5,633,007 Class B treasury shares, in accordance with Article 67 of Capital Markets Law No. 26,831. This cancellation, which occurred due to the expiration of a three-year holding period, led to a reduction in the company’s share capital to Ps. 446,834,114, comprising 61,738,188 Class A shares and 385,095,926 Class B shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUPV) stock is a Buy with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Grupo Supervielle SA stock, see the SUPV Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 27, 2025