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Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV)
:SUPV
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Grupo Supervielle SA
(NYSE:SUPV)
Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Earnings Outlook
Analysts expect earnings to bounce back to an average earnings growth of approximately 50% in 2026-2027, supported by positive real loan growth and stronger core revenue generation.
Loan Growth
Supervielle is growing loans faster than peers, which is seen as a positive given loan growth is among investors’ main focus.
Macroeconomic Environment
The macroeconomic environment in Argentina is normalizing, contributing to a more favorable outlook for banks like Supervielle.
Negative Factors
Capitalization Concerns
Supervielle is the bank with the lowest capitalization within the coverage, which is not expected to be an issue in the short term but remains a point to monitor.
Net Income Decline
Net income declined 89% year-over-year due to much lower securities and FX gains impacted by precautionary behavior and FX volatility.
Grupo Supervielle SA (SUPV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.15B
Dividend Yield1.57%
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.3
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth-44.77%
EPS Growth-10.25%
CountryUS
Employees3,456
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength79
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding78,996,826
10 Day Avg. Volume1,564,609
30 Day Avg. Volume1,089,814
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.02
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.01
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.50Price Target Upside40.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
Grupo Supervielle SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionGrupo Supervielle S.A. is a leading financial services group based in Argentina, primarily engaged in providing banking services. The company operates through a wide network of branches, focusing on commercial and retail banking, which includes lending, deposit-taking, and investment services. Grupo Supervielle also offers insurance, asset management, and other financial products, serving a diverse customer base of individuals, small and medium-sized enterprises, and large corporations.
How the Company Makes MoneyGrupo Supervielle S.A. generates revenue primarily through interest income from its banking operations, which involves loans and credit facilities extended to individuals and businesses. The company also earns fees and commissions from various banking services, such as account management, transaction processing, and advisory services. Additionally, Grupo Supervielle benefits from insurance premiums and asset management fees. Its earnings are further supplemented by strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and businesses, enhancing its product offerings and market reach.
Grupo Supervielle SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 27, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -15.09%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook for Grupo Supervielle. While there were notable achievements such as the introduction of a cluster-based strategy, deposit growth, and retail loan growth, there were also significant challenges including loan demand softness, an increase in the NPL ratio, and a decline in net financial income. The sentiment is balanced between positive strategic initiatives and negative financial pressures.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Introduction of Cluster-Based Strategy
Grupo Supervielle introduced a cluster-based strategy to strengthen the value proposition across both retail and commercial customers. Retail loans now comprise over half of the total loan portfolio, up from a third a year ago.
Deposit Growth
Deposits increased by high single digits sequentially, indicating strong funding growth.
Net Financial Income Growth
Customer-related net financial income increased in the high teens, highlighting the strength of the core franchise.
Operational Efficiency
The company maintained cost discipline by strongly reducing expenses, demonstrating an ability to drive operational efficiency.
Product Innovations
Launched Argentina's first remunerated account and a Supervielle store on the Mercado Libre platform to enhance client experience and deepen funding base.
Retail Loan Growth
Retail lending rose 196% year-on-year, representing nearly 52% of the total loan portfolio, up from 36% a year ago.
Negative Updates
Loan Demand Softness
Experienced short-term softness in loan demand, particularly in March, due to external factors like limited peso liquidity and currency volatility.
NPL Ratio Increase
The NPL ratio rose to 2% this quarter, marking a normalization from historically low levels.
Decline in Net Financial Income
Total net financial income declined 12% quarter-over-quarter due to a sharp decline in investment portfolio net financial income.
Revised Loan Growth Expectations
Loan growth expectations revised to 50%-60%, down from over 60% previously expected.
Increased Cost of Risk
Cost of risk rose to 5%, reflecting higher provisions aligned with retail loan growth.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Grupo Supervielle outlined its strategic initiatives and provided detailed financial guidance. The company reported a 3% sequential increase in total loans, with retail lending growing by 196% year-on-year, now accounting for 52% of the total loan portfolio. The NPL ratio rose to 2%, aligning with industry levels due to the rapid expansion of the retail loan book. Deposits saw a high single-digit sequential increase, and customer-related net financial income increased in the high teens. The company projected real loan growth between 50% to 60% for the full year and expects the NPL ratio to range between 2.2% to 2.5% at year-end. The cost of risk is anticipated to be between 4% and 4.5%, while NIM is expected to normalize between 18% and 20%. Operating expenses were reduced by 12% sequentially, and ROE is expected to improve progressively, reaching between 12% and 15% for the year. The CET1 ratio is projected to be between 12% to 13% by year-end, reflecting loan growth and regulatory adjustments.Grupo Supervielle SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Grupo Supervielle SA exhibits strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and profitability improvement. The balance sheet reflects low leverage and effective equity usage, while cash flows are solid, supporting operational and strategic flexibility. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities, although it may need to consider strategic use of leverage to enhance growth potential.Income Statement
Grupo Supervielle SA has shown strong revenue growth over the years, with total revenue almost doubling from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin remains high at 100% since revenue equals gross profit, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly from 2023 to 2024, reflecting improved profitability. However, the absence of EBITDA limits some analysis of operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company demonstrates a solid equity position, with an equity ratio of 18.15% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.006, indicating minimal leverage and strong financial stability. Return on equity is healthy, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. However, the banking industry typically carries higher leverage, and a low debt ratio may limit growth opportunities.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Grupo Supervielle SA has displayed robust free cash flow growth and strong operating cash flow, which more than covers net income, signifying good cash generation capability. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, ensuring that the company generates more cash than it reports as profit. However, fluctuations in financing cash flow signal potential variability in capital structure management.82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 890.31B | 440.59B | 342.78B | 335.51B | 62.87B | Gross Profit |
| 890.31B | 440.59B | 342.78B | 335.51B | 62.87B | EBIT |
| 389.77B | 90.54B | -10.62B | 4.62B | 6.30B | EBITDA |
| 0.00 | -115.63B | 2.00B | -30.25B | -13.38B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 125.18B | 51.62B | -15.65B | -10.52B | 5.28B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 283.29B | 146.06B | 83.54B | 51.23B | 28.56B | Total Assets |
| 4.51T | 2.06T | 2.17T | 760.52B | 376.19B | Total Debt |
| 4.68B | 2.86B | 4.76B | 2.18B | 2.11B | Net Debt |
| -278.61B | -226.24B | -78.78B | -49.05B | -26.44B | Total Liabilities |
| 3.71T | 1.72T | 1.88T | 660.00B | 322.34B | Stockholders Equity |
| 822.61B | 341.38B | 287.32B | 100.43B | 53.81B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| 1.55T | 133.20B | 539.30B | 273.86B | -16.94B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 1.61T | 157.95B | 565.34B | 304.33B | -9.81B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -46.08B | -18.89B | -23.53B | -28.48B | -6.57B | Financing Cash Flow |
| -1.05T | -1.00T | -599.33B | -329.09B | 22.28B |
Grupo Supervielle SA Technical Analysis
Neutral
12.49
Price Trends
14.05
Negative
14.31
Negative
12.35
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.75
Positive
38.95
Neutral
17.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUPV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 12.49 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.13, below the 50-day MA of 14.05, and above the 200-day MA of 12.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SUPV.
Grupo Supervielle SA Risk Analysis
Grupo Supervielle SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grupo Supervielle SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Grupo Supervielle SA Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $1.15B | 15.33 | 9.61% | 1.57% | -44.77% | -10.25% | |
81 Outperform | $1.44B | 7.34 | 15.82% | 5.47% | 8.33% | 13.48% | |
77 Outperform | $1.14B | 9.06 | 17.21% | 3.43% | 0.94% | -8.61% | |
71 Outperform | $1.28B | 9.81 | 15.54% | 3.66% | -7.38% | -15.58% | |
70 Outperform | $1.42B | 10.72 | 9.84% | 3.63% | 1.26% | ― | |
70 Outperform | $1.41B | 12.81 | 8.68% | 3.13% | 1.63% | -16.82% | |
64 Neutral | $12.83B | 9.78 | 7.78% | 16985.64% | 12.26% | -7.81% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
SUPV
Grupo Supervielle SA
12.49
6.37
104.08%
BLX
Banco Latinoamericano De Comercio
41.38
13.93
50.75%
PFBC
Preferred Bank
85.35
15.73
22.59%
STBA
S&T Bancorp
37.87
8.77
30.14%
WABC
Westamerica Bancorporation
49.02
4.71
10.63%
NBHC
National Bank Holdings
37.66
2.73
7.82%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.