Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.93B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 787.76K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: 4.54%
• EPS Growth: -130.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 674
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
• EPS (TTM): 0.85
• Shares Outstanding: 57,581,710
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 657,414
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 787,757
• PEG Ratio: 0.48
• Price to Book (P/B): <0.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.90
• P/FCF Ratio: 61.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -32.52
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -132.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -154.72
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -906.68
• 1Y Price Target: $62.17
• Price Target Upside: 22.33% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $861.24M

• Rating: 60 Neutral
• Price Target: $58.00 ▲(14.13% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/03/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/03/26

The score is held back primarily by weaker recent financial performance (2025 GAAP loss and lower free cash flow) and unattractive GAAP-based valuation (negative P/E). These are partially offset by improving technical momentum and a generally positive earnings-call outlook with strong 2026 revenue guidance, though execution and cost pressures keep the rating moderate.

Positive Factors

Diversified growth portfolio

A broad set of high-growth products now drives the bulk of sales, reducing single-product dependency. Durable commercial traction across multiple indications supports repeatable revenue, cross-channel sales execution, and greater resilience to individual product setbacks over the next several quarters.

High gross margins

Consistently very high gross margins reflect specialty drug pricing and favorable product mix, supporting durable cash generation and the ability to fund R&D and launches. High product-level margins create structural operating leverage if sales continue to scale.

Solid cash generation and liquidity

Positive operating and free cash flow even in a loss year, combined with a sizable cash balance and no debt, gives the company durable financial flexibility to fund launches, address supply issues, pursue BD/M&A, and support R&D without immediate external financing.

Negative Factors

GAAP profitability deterioration

A swing from GAAP profitability to a sizable loss reflects acquisition-related charges and elevated R&D/SG&A. This reduces earnings resilience and increases execution risk: sustained higher operating cost levels could pressure cash flow and limit investment flexibility if revenue momentum moderates.

Balance-sheet outlier and leverage uncertainty

Material outlier figures in the 2025 balance sheet reduce clarity on true leverage and capital structure trends. This complicates assessment of financial flexibility and long-term financing capacity, making durable risk assessment and covenant planning more uncertain for the next several quarters.

ONAPGO supply and execution risk

Supply limitations and a patient backlog for a new, strategic therapy threaten the revenue ramp and patient access. Reliance on supplier transitions and regulatory filings for a second supplier creates durable execution risk that could cap ONAPGO's near‑term contribution and strain commercial momentum.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) diseases in the United States. Its commercial products are Trokendi XR, an extended release topiramate product indicated for the treatment of epilepsy, as well as for the prophylaxis of migraine headache; and Oxtellar XR, an extended release oxcarbazepine for the monotherapy treatment of partial onset epilepsy seizures in adults and children between 6 to 17 years of age. The company's commercial products also comprise Qelbree, a selective norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor indicated for the treatment of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in pediatric patients 6 to 17 years of age; APOKYN for the acute intermittent treatment of hypomobility or off episodes in patients with advanced Parkinson's Disease (PD); XADAGO for treating levodopa/carbidopa in patients with PD experiencing off episodes; MYOBLOC, a Type B toxin product indicated for the treatment of cervical dystonia and sialorrhea in adults; GOCOVRI for the treatment of dyskinesia in patients with PD; and Osmolex ER for the treatment of Parkinson's disease and drug-induced extrapyramidal reaction in adult patients. In addition, its product candidates include Qelbree (SPN-812), which has completed Phase III clinical trials that is used for the treatment of ADHD; SPN-830, a late-stage drug/device combination product candidate for the prevention of off episodes in PD patients; SPN-817, a novel product candidate in Phase I clinical trials for the treatment of severe epilepsy; SPN-820, a product candidate in Phase II clinical trials for treating resistant depression; and SPN-443 and SPN-446, which are in preclinical stage for treating CNS. The company markets and sells its products through pharmaceutical wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Supernus Pharmaceuticals generates revenue through the sale of its pharmaceutical products, which are primarily focused on CNS disorders. The company earns money by marketing its approved medications to healthcare providers and pharmacies, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from prescriptions filled by patients. In addition to direct sales, Supernus may also engage in partnerships or licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical companies to expand its market reach or enhance its product offerings. These partnerships can provide additional revenue streams through upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales of partnered products. Furthermore, the company's commitment to research and development may lead to new product launches that can contribute to future earnings.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue growth and very strong gross margins, plus positive operating cash flow/free cash flow in 2025. Offsetting this, 2025 swung to a GAAP loss with materially weaker profitability vs. 2024 and lower free cash flow, and the 2025 balance sheet shows outlier figures that reduce confidence in leverage/YOY interpretation.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown in recent years (2025 annual revenue up ~5% vs. 2024), and gross margins remain very strong (~86%–90% historically). However, profitability has deteriorated sharply: after solid earnings in 2024 (net margin ~11%), 2025 swung to a net loss (net margin ~-5%) and negative operating profit, indicating either cost pressure, spending step-up, or one-time charges. The overall trajectory shows good top-line resilience but meaningfully higher earnings volatility and a weakening profit profile in the latest year.

Balance Sheet

Reported leverage appears low in most years (debt-to-equity typically ~3%–5% from 2023–2024), which would normally be a balance-sheet strength. That said, 2025 annual balance sheet figures are extreme outliers (very large debt, equity, and assets versus prior years), which raises data consistency concerns and makes year-over-year balance sheet interpretation less reliable. Profitability on shareholder capital also weakened materially in 2025 given the net loss.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains positive even in a loss year: 2025 annual operating cash flow and free cash flow were both positive (~$47M and ~$46M), and free cash flow broadly tracked reported earnings over time (free cash flow close to net income in multiple years). The key weakness is the step-down versus 2024: free cash flow fell materially (growth ~-35%), signaling reduced cash conversion or higher cash outlays in the latest year despite still-positive cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	718.95M	661.82M	607.52M	667.24M	579.77M
Gross Profit	644.39M	583.91M	523.74M	580.02M	504.71M
EBITDA	41.00M	178.28M	90.04M	153.36M	129.19M
Net Income	-38.55M	73.86M	1.32M	60.71M	53.42M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.45T	1.37B	1.28B	1.70B	1.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	308.67B	453.61M	254.87M	461.33M	339.68M
Total Debt	30.36B	34.27M	41.53M	444.76M	427.03M
Total Liabilities	390.93B	332.34M	356.16M	816.30M	873.30M
Stockholders Equity	1.06T	1.04B	921.52M	886.20M	815.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	45.99M	171.23M	110.53M	116.41M	125.08M
Operating Cash Flow	47.33M	171.95M	111.08M	116.83M	127.13M
Investing Cash Flow	4.11M	-189.87M	268.73M	-216.66M	-81.91M
Financing Cash Flow	9.13M	12.19M	-397.88M	-10.48M	-130.42M

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 50.82
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SUPN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 50.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.95, below the 50-day MA of 51.22, and above the 200-day MA of 44.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SUPN.

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ANIP	67 Neutral	$1.67B	14.40	15.55%	―	48.87%	―
AMPH	61 Neutral	$885.17M	12.76	12.76%	―	-0.03%	-27.66%
SUPN	60 Neutral	$2.93B	-72.78	-0.01%	―	4.54%	-130.59%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
PRGO	50 Neutral	$1.42B	-1.35	-35.16%	8.48%	-2.55%	66.00%
ALVO	42 Neutral	$1.26B	-117.81	-26.11%	―	55.38%	―

Supernus Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Supernus boosts executive pay with new equity incentives

On February 18, 2026, Supernus Pharmaceuticals’ board approved Compensation Committee recommendations to raise base salaries and grant equity awards to its top executives, effective January 1, 2026, following an annual compensation review benchmarked to its industry peer group and advised by Aon. Chief executive Jack A. Khattar, chief financial officer Timothy C. Dec and other senior leaders received modest salary increases, 2025 cash bonuses, and new stock option, restricted stock unit and performance share unit grants, with equity awards vesting over four years or upon achievement of performance goals, underscoring the company’s continued emphasis on performance-based, equity-linked pay for key management.

The executive compensation changes tie a significant portion of leadership’s potential rewards to Supernus’s share price and the attainment of committee-approved operational or financial objectives. By keeping 2026 bonus targets unchanged while enhancing long-term incentive opportunities at a set exercise price, the board reinforces alignment between management and shareholder interests and signals confidence in the company’s future performance trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUPN) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Supernus Pharmaceuticals stock, see the SUPN Stock Forecast page.

Supernus Revises Merger Milestone Payment Obligations Agreement

On January 22, 2026, Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. amended its September 12, 2018 merger agreement with Reich Consulting Group, Inc.’s securityholder representative, specifically revising the timing and payment of certain milestone obligations tied to that transaction. The change indicates Supernus is actively managing its merger-related financial commitments, which may affect the pacing of contingent payments to former stakeholders of the acquired business but does not alter the core terms of the underlying merger.

The most recent analyst rating on (SUPN) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Supernus Pharmaceuticals stock, see the SUPN Stock Forecast page.