StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A (STUB)
NYSE:STUB
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StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A
(NYSE:STUB)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$11.00
▲(58.96% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—improving cash generation and leverage but a sharp 2025 earnings collapse—and supported by constructive technical momentum and a reasonable P/E. The latest earnings call adds confidence via reiterated guidance, margin improvement, and ongoing deleveraging, partially offset by dilution and remaining leverage.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow conversion
High and consistent free cash flow conversion (116% of adjusted EBITDA, underlying ~91%) is a durable strength. It funds operations, debt paydown and product investment without reliance on market financing, improving resilience through cycles and supporting sustainable deleveraging and strategic initiatives.
Negative Factors
Earnings volatility and 2025 net loss
A sharp 2025 earnings collapse and persistent earnings volatility undermine return predictability and ROE. Even with positive cash flow, recurring or large non‑operational losses reduce retained earnings and complicate planning, making long‑term profitability and shareholder returns uncertain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow conversion
High and consistent free cash flow conversion (116% of adjusted EBITDA, underlying ~91%) is a durable strength. It funds operations, debt paydown and product investment without reliance on market financing, improving resilience through cycles and supporting sustainable deleveraging and strategic initiatives.
Read all positive factors
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A (STUB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.64B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.73
Revenue Growth-0.80%
EPS Growth-5709.72%
CountryUS
Employees918
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.56
Shares Outstanding350,687,300
10 Day Avg. Volume8,579,350
30 Day Avg. Volume5,079,846
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.68
P/FCF Ratio24.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.73Price Target Upside83.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
StubHub is a leading global platform for secondary ticket sales for live events, facilitating millions of tickets for sports, concerts, theater, and more across over 200 countries. Founded in 2000, it enables buyers and sellers to connect and tran...
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a clear positive operating and financial inflection: solid top-line growth (GMS +7%, revenue +12%), expanded margins (adjusted EBITDA margin +400 bps to 16%) and strong cash generation with active deleveraging. Management reiterated full‑year guidance and highlighted tangible product and distribution progress (AI self‑serve Distribution Manager, primary integrations, AI/chat partnerships and advertising tests) and robust international momentum. Near‑term challenges include higher G&A from IPO‑related items, ongoing share dilution from equity conversions and RSUs, remaining leverage (~4x), and the early-stage nature of new monetization streams and regulatory uncertainties. Overall, the positives materially outweigh the negatives and show the company executing against its stated priorities.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth: GMS and Revenue
Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) increased 7% year-over-year to $2.2 billion in Q1 2026; revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $446 million, outpacing GMS growth and reflecting improved conversion from GMS to revenue.
Negative Updates
G&A and Stock-Based Compensation Impact
General & administrative expense increased ~170 basis points as a percentage of revenue in Q1, driven by elevated professional fees and front‑loading of payroll taxes associated with higher stock‑based compensation following the IPO, creating near‑term pressure on operating margins.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth: GMS and Revenue
Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) increased 7% year-over-year to $2.2 billion in Q1 2026; revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $446 million, outpacing GMS growth and reflecting improved conversion from GMS to revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
StubHub reiterated full‑year guidance of GMS $9.9–$10.1 billion (up 8–10% year‑over‑year) and adjusted EBITDA $400–$420 million. Management pointed to Q1 results that support the outlook: GMS $2.2 billion (+7%), revenue $446 million (+12%), gross margin 85% (+100 bps), adjusted EBITDA $72.1 million (16% margin, >400 bps YoY improvement) and net income $48 million, with capex ~2% of revenue. They expect GMS‑to‑revenue conversion to normalize toward ~20% for the full year, second‑half weighting similar to 2025 with further margin expansion, and strong cash generation (trailing‑12‑month free cash flow ~$298 million, 116% conversion of adjusted EBITDA; underlying FCF ~$234 million, 91% conversion). Balance sheet highlights cited as supporting the plan include cash of ~$1.5 billion ($508 million net of seller obligations), net leverage ~4x (down from 4.5x), total debt ~ $1.4 billion with no maturities until March 2030, >$1 billion repaid over the last 12 months (including $100 million post‑quarter), and dilution expected in the low‑ to mid‑single‑digit range on ~399 million fully diluted shares.StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.79B | 1.75B | 1.77B | 1.37B | 1.04B | 672.79M |
| Gross Profit | 1.46B | 1.41B | 1.44B | 1.14B | 851.10M | 583.77M |
| EBITDA | -1.34B | -1.26B | 241.57M | 264.29M | -43.71M | -251.81M |
| Net Income | -1.84B | -1.91B | -2.80M | 405.20M | -260.99M | -629.95M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.35B | 5.05B | 5.09B | 4.98B | 4.34B | 4.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.53B | 1.24B | 1.00B | 775.71M | 372.36M | 554.06M |
| Total Debt | 1.50B | 1.51B | 2.33B | 2.41B | 2.40B | 2.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.34B | 3.11B | 3.72B | 3.59B | 3.44B | 3.27B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.38B | 1.39B | 907.43M | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 322.30M | 191.18M | 255.11M | 301.95M | -49.83M | -139.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 332.66M | 192.57M | 261.49M | 307.39M | -47.52M | -136.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -35.01M | -34.38M | -6.38M | -5.44M | -710.00K | -49.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 73.01M | 71.79M | -46.71M | 94.13M | -134.15M | 126.13M |
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Risk Analysis
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.26B | 25.03 | 123.31% | ― | 31.02% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $405.98M | -10.86 | -19.29% | ― | 12.27% | 37.41% | |
66 Neutral | $3.64B | -1.92 | -94.27% | ― | -0.80% | -5709.72% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
48 Neutral | $252.62M | -10.11 | -10.61% | ― | -9.70% | 61.30% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
STUB
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A
9.80
-10.70
-52.20%
SPT
Sprout Social
6.99
-14.84
-67.98%
GRND
Grindr
12.90
-11.52
-47.17%
SMRT
SmartRent
1.31
0.47
55.95%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.