StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A (STUB)
NYSE:STUB
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StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A
(NYSE:STUB)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-5.80% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance on a GAAP basis (sharp 2025 loss) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include improved cash generation, better leverage trajectory, and a more optimistic 2026 outlook from the earnings call (higher guided adjusted EBITDA and continued debt reduction), but valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
High gross margins (asset-light marketplace)
Sustained ~80%+ adjusted gross margins reflect an asset-light marketplace model with strong unit economics. This margin structure supports scalable operating leverage as GMS grows, enabling long-term profitability expansion even if revenue lags in the near term.
Negative Factors
2025 earnings volatility and large GAAP loss
A sharp 2025 swing to a very large GAAP loss and persistent negative ROE signal volatile earnings quality. Such swings complicate capital allocation, raise scrutiny of accounting one-offs, and can raise financing costs or constrain strategic optionality over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins (asset-light marketplace)
Sustained ~80%+ adjusted gross margins reflect an asset-light marketplace model with strong unit economics. This margin structure supports scalable operating leverage as GMS grows, enabling long-term profitability expansion even if revenue lags in the near term.
Read all positive factors
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A (STUB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.33
Revenue Growth16.55%
EPS Growth-675.83%
CountryUS
Employees918
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.56
Shares Outstanding331,974,120
10 Day Avg. Volume3,813,401
30 Day Avg. Volume5,106,258
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.68
P/FCF Ratio24.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.87
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.95Price Target Upside73.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.04B
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
StubHub is a leading global platform for secondary ticket sales for live events, facilitating millions of tickets for sports, concerts, theater, and more across over 200 countries. Founded in 2000, it enables buyers and sellers to connect and tran...
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and strategic picture: management highlighted durable marketplace fundamentals (GMS growth, ~50% North American share, >80% gross margins), strong cash conversion and meaningful debt reduction, and provided confident 2026 guidance (GMS +9% midpoint and a substantial adjusted EBITDA increase). Offsetting this optimism were near-term headwinds: a soft Q4 (down 8% GMS, Q4 revenue down 16%), elevated sales & marketing spend that compressed current margins, large noncash GAAP charges tied to the IPO, and deliberate delays in monetizing direct issuance and advertising while product work continues. Overall, the company presented robust long-term opportunity and margin expansion plans while acknowledging short-term investments and timing risks.Positive Updates
Full-Year GMS Growth and Underlying Strength
Generated $9.2B of GMS in 2025, up 6% year-over-year; excluding the Eras Tour, GMS grew ~18% YoY, indicating strong underlying marketplace performance.
Negative Updates
Fourth Quarter GMS and Revenue Weakness
Q4 2025 GMS of $2.3B declined 8% YoY (lapped an unusually strong Q4 2024); Q4 revenue was $449M (19% of GMS), down 16% YoY, reflecting lower GMS and prior-period direct issuance-related principal revenue now reduced.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year GMS Growth and Underlying Strength
Generated $9.2B of GMS in 2025, up 6% year-over-year; excluding the Eras Tour, GMS grew ~18% YoY, indicating strong underlying marketplace performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
StubHub guided fiscal 2026 GMS of $9.9–$10.1 billion (≈9% growth at the midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA of $400–$420 million, assuming core resale economics with take rates in the ~20% range, adjusted gross margins above 80%, international GMS of ~15% growing faster than North America, and disciplined operating spend to support direct issuance and advertising without assuming material near‑term revenue from those initiatives. For context, in 2025 the company delivered $9.2 billion of GMS (+6% YoY; +18% ex‑Eras), full‑year revenue of $1.7 billion (19% of GMS), adjusted gross margin of 83%, adjusted EBITDA of $232 million (13% of revenue), Q4 GMS of $2.3 billion (‑8% YoY; ~+6% ex‑Eras) with Q4 revenue $449 million (19% of GMS) and Q4 adjusted EBITDA $63 million (14% margin), full‑year adjusted sales & marketing ~$943 million (54% of revenue; Q4 $234M or 52%), adjusted ops & support $57 million (3%), adjusted G&A $223 million (13%). The company also reported ~70% free cash flow conversion of adjusted EBITDA in 2025 (including interest), reduced total debt by ~35% via ~$900 million term‑loan repayment to $1.5 billion, and ended the year with ~$1.2 billion in cash (~$494 million net of seller payments).StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.75B | 1.77B | 1.37B | 1.04B | 672.79M |
| Gross Profit | 1.41B | 1.44B | 1.14B | 851.10M | 583.77M |
| EBITDA | -1.26B | 241.57M | 264.29M | -43.71M | -251.81M |
| Net Income | -1.91B | -2.80M | 405.20M | -260.99M | -629.95M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.05B | 5.09B | 4.98B | 4.34B | 4.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 1.00B | 775.71M | 372.36M | 554.06M |
| Total Debt | 1.51B | 2.33B | 2.41B | 2.40B | 2.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.11B | 3.72B | 3.59B | 3.44B | 3.27B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.94B | 1.38B | 1.39B | 907.43M | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 191.18M | 255.11M | 301.95M | -49.83M | -139.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 192.57M | 261.49M | 307.39M | -47.52M | -136.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.38M | -6.38M | -5.44M | -710.00K | -49.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 71.79M | -46.71M | 94.13M | -134.15M | 126.13M |
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Risk Analysis
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $2.35B | 27.11 | 60.60% | ― | 28.97% | -4.18% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $316.09M | ― | -22.88% | ― | 13.09% | 32.34% | |
54 Neutral | $274.93M | -6.33 | -25.34% | ― | -24.30% | -181.62% | |
50 Neutral | $2.34B | -2.46 | -106.90% | ― | 16.55% | -675.83% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
STUB
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A
6.90
-13.60
-66.34%
SPT
Sprout Social
5.24
-13.99
-72.75%
GRND
Grindr
12.64
-6.24
-33.05%
SMRT
SmartRent
1.44
0.72
100.00%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.