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StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A (STUB)
NYSE:STUB
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StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A
(NYSE:STUB)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-2.69% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance on a GAAP basis (sharp 2025 loss) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include improved cash generation, better leverage trajectory, and a more optimistic 2026 outlook from the earnings call (higher guided adjusted EBITDA and continued debt reduction), but valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings and no dividend support.
Positive Factors
High Gross Margins
Sustained ~80%+ adjusted gross margins reflect asset-light marketplace economics and strong unit economics. High gross profitability provides durable operating leverage as GMS scales, supporting margin expansion and cash generation even with elevated operating investments.
North American Market Leadership
A ~50% North American share creates strong network effects and liquidity advantages that raise barriers to entry, support pricing/take-rate resilience, and bolster long-term customer retention and supply-side engagement across events and geographies.
Strong Cash Generation & Debt Reduction
High FCF conversion and meaningful debt paydown materially improve financial flexibility. Lower leverage and a healthy cash balance support reinvestment in product, international expansion, and strategic initiatives without immediate reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
GAAP Earnings Volatility & Large Noncash Charges
Large noncash, IPO-related GAAP charges produced a sharp 2025 loss and negative returns metrics. Even if adjusted metrics look stronger, such volatility undermines reported profitability, complicates comparability and can weigh on long-term investor confidence and capital access.
High Sales & Marketing Intensity
S&M running above 50% of revenue is a persistent margin headwind; sustaining aggressive investment to capture share requires continued cash and operational execution. If customer payback or contribution margins don't improve, profitability and free cash flow could be structurally pressured.
Delayed Monetization of New Initiatives
A deliberate shift to product-led, AI-enabled direct issuance and slow advertising rollouts defers material revenue from these initiatives. This prolongs the timeline to realize returns on development spend and increases execution risk tied to product adoption and monetization cadence.
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A (STUB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.45B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.76M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.75
Revenue Growth16.55%
EPS Growth-675.83%
CountryUS
Employees918
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.56
Shares Outstanding331,974,120
10 Day Avg. Volume5,697,630
30 Day Avg. Volume4,762,924
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.68
P/FCF Ratio24.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.18Price Target Upside97.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.04B
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionStubHub is a leading global platform for secondary ticket sales for live events, facilitating millions of tickets for sports, concerts, theater, and more across over 200 countries. Founded in 2000, it enables buyers and sellers to connect and transact tickets through its online marketplace, earning primarily through transaction fees. The platform supports various event types and offers a digital marketplace for ticket resale.
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and strategic picture: management highlighted durable marketplace fundamentals (GMS growth, ~50% North American share, >80% gross margins), strong cash conversion and meaningful debt reduction, and provided confident 2026 guidance (GMS +9% midpoint and a substantial adjusted EBITDA increase). Offsetting this optimism were near-term headwinds: a soft Q4 (down 8% GMS, Q4 revenue down 16%), elevated sales & marketing spend that compressed current margins, large noncash GAAP charges tied to the IPO, and deliberate delays in monetizing direct issuance and advertising while product work continues. Overall, the company presented robust long-term opportunity and margin expansion plans while acknowledging short-term investments and timing risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Full-Year GMS Growth and Underlying Strength
Generated $9.2B of GMS in 2025, up 6% year-over-year; excluding the Eras Tour, GMS grew ~18% YoY, indicating strong underlying marketplace performance.
Market Share Leadership in North America
Expanded North American secondary market share to approximately 50%, establishing a dominant marketplace position and reinforcing network effects and liquidity advantages.
Improved Adjusted Gross Margins
Adjusted gross margin strengthened to 83% in the fourth quarter (up from 76% in the prior-year period) and was 83% for the full year, up 200 basis points versus 2024—demonstrating the asset-light marketplace economics.
Strong Cash Generation and Debt Reduction
Free cash flow converted at nearly 70% of adjusted EBITDA in 2025; repaid ~ $900M of U.S. term loan reducing total debt by ~35%, ending the year with ~$1.2B cash (or ~$494M net of seller payments).
2026 Financial Guidance and EBITDA Expansion
Provided 2026 guidance of GMS $9.9B–$10.1B (midpoint ≈ 9% growth) and adjusted EBITDA $400M–$420M, signaling expected meaningful margin and earnings expansion versus 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $232M (13% of revenue).
Accelerating International Opportunity
International expansion outpaced North America; international markets account for ~15% of GMS and grew at multiples of North America in the fourth quarter, representing a material growth runway.
Strategic Shift to Product-Led, AI-Enabled Direct Issuance
Transitioning from business-development-led direct issuance to a product-led, AI-enabled supply-side strategy to reduce partner friction and enable scalable self-serve distribution—prioritizing long-term durable revenue upside.
Negative Updates
Fourth Quarter GMS and Revenue Weakness
Q4 2025 GMS of $2.3B declined 8% YoY (lapped an unusually strong Q4 2024); Q4 revenue was $449M (19% of GMS), down 16% YoY, reflecting lower GMS and prior-period direct issuance-related principal revenue now reduced.
Elevated Sales & Marketing Spend
Adjusted sales & marketing increased to $234M in Q4 (52% of revenue vs. 41% prior-year) and $943M for full year (54% of revenue vs. 47% in 2024), pressuring near-term margins due to deliberate market share investments.
Full-Year Revenue Decline
Full-year revenue fell to $1.7B in 2025 from $1.8B in 2024, a decline of roughly 6%, driven in part by changes in direct issuance accounting and take-rate investments to gain share.
Large Noncash GAAP Charges Impacting Reported Results
GAAP results included a $1.4B nonrecurring noncash stock-based compensation expense (IPO-triggered) and ~ $480M nonrecurring noncash income tax expense related to a valuation allowance—significant GAAP headwinds excluded from adjusted metrics.
Delayed Near-Term Revenue from Direct Issuance
The strategic shift to build self-serve, AI-enabled direct issuance tools means management will not optimize for immediate revenue from direct issuance in 2026, deferring near-term contribution in favor of longer-term scalability.
Advertising Monetization Still Nascent
Advertising initiatives are early-stage: modest fourth-quarter revenue from tests and management expects only a 'tens of millions' contribution in 2026, providing limited near-term bottom-line uplift.
Leverage Remains Material Despite Reduction
Total debt ended the year at ~$1.5B after the ~35% reduction—improved but still a meaningful liability on the balance sheet as the company scales and invests.
Company Guidance
StubHub guided fiscal 2026 GMS of $9.9–$10.1 billion (≈9% growth at the midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA of $400–$420 million, assuming core resale economics with take rates in the ~20% range, adjusted gross margins above 80%, international GMS of ~15% growing faster than North America, and disciplined operating spend to support direct issuance and advertising without assuming material near‑term revenue from those initiatives. For context, in 2025 the company delivered $9.2 billion of GMS (+6% YoY; +18% ex‑Eras), full‑year revenue of $1.7 billion (19% of GMS), adjusted gross margin of 83%, adjusted EBITDA of $232 million (13% of revenue), Q4 GMS of $2.3 billion (‑8% YoY; ~+6% ex‑Eras) with Q4 revenue $449 million (19% of GMS) and Q4 adjusted EBITDA $63 million (14% margin), full‑year adjusted sales & marketing ~$943 million (54% of revenue; Q4 $234M or 52%), adjusted ops & support $57 million (3%), adjusted G&A $223 million (13%). The company also reported ~70% free cash flow conversion of adjusted EBITDA in 2025 (including interest), reduced total debt by ~35% via ~$900 million term‑loan repayment to $1.5 billion, and ended the year with ~$1.2 billion in cash (~$494 million net of seller payments).StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals. Strong gross margins (80%+), improved leverage, and positive operating/free cash flow since 2023 support the score, but the sharp 2025 deterioration in operating results and a very large net loss outweigh near-term strength and raises sustainability concerns.Income Statement
Revenue scaled materially from 2020 to 2024, but 2025 shows a slight decline (about -4.6%). Profitability is volatile: the business posted solid profitability in 2023 and was near break-even in 2024, but 2025 deteriorated sharply with deeply negative operating results and a very large net loss. A clear positive is consistently strong gross profitability (roughly 80%+ gross margin in 2021–2025), but the swing to heavy losses in 2025 outweighs the margin strength and raises questions around cost structure and/or one-time charges.34
Negative
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved: debt-to-equity moved down meaningfully from high levels in 2021–2023 to below 1.0 in 2025, and equity increased versus 2024. Total assets are relatively stable across the period, suggesting balance-sheet stability. The key weakness is returns for shareholders: return on equity is negative in most years and extremely negative in 2025, reflecting the earnings volatility and the large loss despite a better leverage profile.52
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a relative bright spot recently: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive in 2023–2025, with free cash flow up strongly in 2025 versus 2024. Earlier years (2020–2022) were meaningfully cash negative, showing prior strain. A notable risk is that cash flow does not fully offset the 2025 earnings collapse—cash generation remains positive, but it is modest relative to the scale of the net loss, implying profitability quality and sustainability need monitoring.63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.75B | 1.77B | 1.37B | 1.04B | 672.79M |
| Gross Profit | 1.41B | 1.44B | 1.14B | 851.10M | 583.77M |
| EBITDA | -1.26B | 241.57M | 264.29M | -43.71M | -251.81M |
| Net Income | -1.91B | -2.80M | 405.20M | -260.99M | -629.95M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.05B | 5.09B | 4.98B | 4.34B | 4.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.24B | 1.00B | 775.71M | 372.36M | 554.06M |
| Total Debt | 1.51B | 2.33B | 2.41B | 2.40B | 2.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.11B | 3.72B | 3.59B | 3.44B | 3.27B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.94B | 1.38B | 1.39B | 907.43M | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 191.18M | 255.11M | 301.95M | -49.83M | -139.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 192.57M | 261.49M | 307.39M | -47.52M | -136.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.38M | -6.38M | -5.44M | -710.00K | -49.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 71.79M | -46.71M | 94.13M | -134.15M | 126.13M |
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Risk Analysis
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $2.34B | 27.11 | 60.60% | ― | 28.97% | -4.18% | |
66 Neutral | $345.94M | -11.71 | -19.64% | ― | -6.23% | 28.57% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
59 Neutral | $351.88M | -15.25 | -22.88% | ― | 13.09% | 32.34% | |
54 Neutral | $309.48M | -6.33 | -25.34% | ― | -24.30% | -181.62% | |
50 Neutral | $2.45B | -2.46 | -106.90% | ― | 16.55% | -675.83% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
STUB
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A
6.88
-13.62
-66.44%
SPT
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ONTF
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43.85%
SMRT
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1.61
0.41
34.17%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.