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StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A
(NYSE:STUB)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$9.00
▲(9.09% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/23/26
The score is held back primarily by weak recent profitability in the financial statements and clearly bearish technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD and low RSI). Offsetting these, the earnings call indicates improving operating momentum with reiterated guidance, margin expansion, strong cash generation, and ongoing deleveraging, resulting in a mid-range overall score despite limited valuation support from a negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
High and consistent free cash flow with >100% conversion of adjusted EBITDA provides durable internal funding. This reduces dependence on external capital, supports continued deleveraging and strategic investment in product and international expansion, and cushions the business against profit volatility.
Negative Factors
Earnings Volatility / 2025 Loss
A deep 2025 operating loss and persistently negative ROE signal unstable core profitability. This volatility undermines predictability for cash flow conversion and reinvestment, increases reliance on non‑GAAP measures, and raises the risk that earnings may not support sustained deleveraging or shareholder returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
High and consistent free cash flow with >100% conversion of adjusted EBITDA provides durable internal funding. This reduces dependence on external capital, supports continued deleveraging and strategic investment in product and international expansion, and cushions the business against profit volatility.
Read all positive factors
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A (STUB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.17B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.76
Revenue Growth-0.80%
EPS Growth-5709.72%
CountryUS
Employees900
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.56
Shares Outstanding350,687,300
10 Day Avg. Volume6,433,076
30 Day Avg. Volume7,908,774
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.41
Price to Sales (P/S)2.68
P/FCF Ratio24.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.75Price Target Upside54.55% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.02B
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a clear positive operating and financial inflection: solid top-line growth (GMS +7%, revenue +12%), expanded margins (adjusted EBITDA margin +400 bps to 16%) and strong cash generation with active deleveraging. Management reiterated full‑year guidance and highlighted tangible product and distribution progress (AI self‑serve Distribution Manager, primary integrations, AI/chat partnerships and advertising tests) and robust international momentum. Near‑term challenges include higher G&A from IPO‑related items, ongoing share dilution from equity conversions and RSUs, remaining leverage (~4x), and the early-stage nature of new monetization streams and regulatory uncertainties. Overall, the positives materially outweigh the negatives and show the company executing against its stated priorities.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth: GMS and Revenue
Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) increased 7% year-over-year to $2.2 billion in Q1 2026; revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $446 million, outpacing GMS growth and reflecting improved conversion from GMS to revenue.
Negative Updates
G&A and Stock-Based Compensation Impact
General & administrative expense increased ~170 basis points as a percentage of revenue in Q1, driven by elevated professional fees and front‑loading of payroll taxes associated with higher stock‑based compensation following the IPO, creating near‑term pressure on operating margins.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth: GMS and Revenue
Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) increased 7% year-over-year to $2.2 billion in Q1 2026; revenue grew 12% year-over-year to $446 million, outpacing GMS growth and reflecting improved conversion from GMS to revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
StubHub reiterated full‑year guidance of GMS $9.9–$10.1 billion (up 8–10% year‑over‑year) and adjusted EBITDA $400–$420 million. Management pointed to Q1 results that support the outlook: GMS $2.2 billion (+7%), revenue $446 million (+12%), gross margin 85% (+100 bps), adjusted EBITDA $72.1 million (16% margin, >400 bps YoY improvement) and net income $48 million, with capex ~2% of revenue. They expect GMS‑to‑revenue conversion to normalize toward ~20% for the full year, second‑half weighting similar to 2025 with further margin expansion, and strong cash generation (trailing‑12‑month free cash flow ~$298 million, 116% conversion of adjusted EBITDA; underlying FCF ~$234 million, 91% conversion). Balance sheet highlights cited as supporting the plan include cash of ~$1.5 billion ($508 million net of seller obligations), net leverage ~4x (down from 4.5x), total debt ~ $1.4 billion with no maturities until March 2030, >$1 billion repaid over the last 12 months (including $100 million post‑quarter), and dilution expected in the low‑ to mid‑single‑digit range on ~399 million fully diluted shares.StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.79B | 1.75B | 1.77B | 1.37B | 1.04B | 672.79M |
| Gross Profit | 1.46B | 1.41B | 1.44B | 1.14B | 851.10M | 583.77M |
| EBITDA | -1.33B | -1.38B | 241.57M | 264.29M | -43.71M | -251.81M |
| Net Income | -1.84B | -1.91B | -2.80M | 405.20M | -260.99M | -629.95M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.35B | 5.05B | 5.09B | 4.98B | 4.34B | 4.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.53B | 1.24B | 1.00B | 775.71M | 372.36M | 554.06M |
| Total Debt | 1.50B | 1.51B | 2.33B | 2.41B | 2.40B | 2.44B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.34B | 3.11B | 3.72B | 3.59B | 3.44B | 3.27B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.02B | 1.94B | 1.38B | 1.39B | 907.43M | 1.14B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 322.30M | 191.18M | 255.11M | 301.95M | -49.83M | -139.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 332.66M | 192.57M | 261.49M | 307.39M | -47.52M | -136.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -35.01M | -34.38M | -6.38M | -5.44M | -710.00K | -49.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 73.01M | 71.79M | -46.71M | 94.13M | -134.15M | 126.13M |
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Risk Analysis
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $3.08B | 34.34 | 123.31% | ― | 31.02% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $515.71M | -13.00 | -19.29% | ― | 12.27% | 37.41% | |
56 Neutral | $3.17B | -1.52 | -94.27% | ― | -0.80% | -5709.72% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
55 Neutral | $194.77M | -7.70 | -10.61% | ― | -9.70% | 61.30% |
* General Sector Average
STUB
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A
9.46
-11.04
-53.85%
SPT
Sprout Social
8.75
-7.31
-45.52%
GRND
Grindr
17.94
-0.70
-3.76%
SMRT
SmartRent
1.05
-0.09
-7.89%
StubHub Holdings Incorporation Class A Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
StubHub Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Pay Policies
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
At its June 23, 2026 annual meeting, StubHub Holdings, Inc. stockholders elected seven director nominees to serve on the board until the 2027 annual meeting, confirming continuity in the company’s leadership and governance structure. The str...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
StubHub Grants $4 Million Retention Bonus to CTO
Positive
Jun 26, 2026
On June 22, 2026, StubHub Holdings, Inc. entered into a letter agreement with its Chief Technology Officer, Artem Yegorov, granting him a $4 million retention bonus subject to specific service conditions. The bonus is structured to be fully earned...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.