Stoke Therapeutics (STOK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 728.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.67
• Revenue Growth: 1128.17%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 128
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.99
• Shares Outstanding: 59,150,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 898,548
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 728,484
• PEG Ratio: 2.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.33
• Price to Sales (P/S): 10.19
• P/FCF Ratio: 41.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -118.95
• 1Y Price Target: $42.25
• Price Target Upside: 28.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): -3.33
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $25.81M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $36.00 ▲(9.52% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/17/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/17/26

The score is driven primarily by solid capitalization and improved 2025 cash flow, partially offset by continued net losses and inconsistent profitability metrics. Technical signals are neutral overall, valuation is constrained by negative earnings, and recent corporate updates are broadly positive due to accelerated Phase 3 timelines and perceived operational momentum.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Near-zero leverage and a sizable equity cushion provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi-year R&D programs and clinical trials without immediate debt pressure. This reduces refinancing risk, supports strategic partnerships, and preserves optionality while commercialization remains future‑focused.

Improved Cash Generation

Achieving positive operating and free cash flow in 2025 marks a structural improvement in cash conversion versus prior burn years. Sustainable cash generation, if maintained, lowers dependence on equity raises, funds development milestones, and materially extends runway to support late‑stage programs.

Clinical Validation & Collaboration

Peer‑reviewed NEJM data showing durable clinical benefit strengthens scientific credibility and de‑risking of lead asset, bolstering regulatory discussions and the strategic Biogen collaboration. Such durable clinical validation materially improves the program's long‑term commercial and regulatory prospects.

Negative Factors

Sustained Net Losses

Despite sharp improvement in 2025, the company remains loss‑making across multiple years, producing negative returns on capital and limiting internal funding for scale. Persistent operating losses raise the probability of future capital raises and dilute long‑term shareholder economics absent profitable commercialization.

Revenue Reliance on Collaborations

Dependence on upfront, milestone and collaboration payments rather than product sales creates volatile, lumpy revenue and ties cash flow to partner agreements. Without a commercial product, predictable recurring revenues are absent, increasing execution risk when moving from development to commercialization.

Long-Term Fixed Commitments

A long‑term headquarters lease raises fixed operating obligations for many years, reducing cost flexibility and increasing break‑even needs. As the company scales, these commitments amplify downside risk if clinical, regulatory, or commercial timelines slip or if additional capital is required.

Stoke Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc., an early-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops novel antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) medicines to treat the underlying causes of severe genetic diseases in the United States. The company utilizes its proprietary Targeted Augmentation of Nuclear Gene Output to design ASOs to precisely upregulate protein expression. Its lead clinical candidate is STK-001, which is in phase I/IIa clinical trial to treat Dravet syndrome, a severe and progressive genetic epilepsy; and STK-002, which is in preclinical stage for the treatment of autosomal dominant optic atrophy. It had entered into a license and collaboration agreement with Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. for the discovery, development, and commercialization of novel RNA-based medicines for the treatment of severe and rare genetic neurodevelopmental diseases of the central nervous system. The company was formerly known as ASOthera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. in May 2016. Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Stoke Therapeutics does not currently generate meaningful recurring revenue from product sales and has historically operated at a loss while funding research and development. Its revenue, when present, primarily comes from collaboration and licensing arrangements (e.g., upfront payments, research funding, and potential development/regulatory/commercial milestone payments and royalties) rather than commercialized medicines. Absent or inconsistent collaboration revenue, the company primarily finances operations through equity offerings and other capital-raising activities; these funding sources support clinical trials, manufacturing, and general corporate activities but are not considered operating revenue. null

Stoke Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (78) and improved 2025 cash generation (cash flow 66) support financial stability, but income statement profitability remains weak (34) with ongoing net losses and uneven margin quality despite the 2025 improvement.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded materially from 2022–2024 (to $36.6M), but 2025 revenue jumped to $184.4M while margins show inconsistencies (2025 gross profit and EBIT margin appear reported at/near zero despite a positive net margin of about -3.7%). Profitability remains the key weakness: the company has posted net losses every year, with very large negative margins in 2022–2024. The bright spot is a sharp improvement in bottom-line results in 2025 (net loss narrowed to $6.9M vs. $89.0M in 2024), suggesting a significantly lower loss profile, though operating profitability is still not sustainably positive.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a relative strength, with essentially no leverage (total debt is $0 in 2025 and was minimal in prior years) and a strong equity base ($352.5M equity on $418.4M assets in 2025). Low debt reduces financial risk and provides flexibility while the business remains loss-making. The main weakness is returns: return on equity has been consistently negative (improving to about -2.0% in 2025 from much weaker levels in 2022–2024), reflecting ongoing net losses despite the solid capitalization.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance improved markedly in 2025, with positive operating cash flow of $45.6M and positive free cash flow of $44.9M, versus large cash burn in 2022–2024 (operating cash flow as low as -$86.9M in 2024). The ability to generate free cash flow while losses persist is a notable strength and supports liquidity. However, free cash flow growth in 2025 was down about 14% year over year, and the multi-year history shows meaningful volatility with several years of sizable negative free cash flow.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	184.42M	36.55M	8.78M	12.40M	0.00
Gross Profit	184.42M	36.55M	8.78M	12.40M	0.00
EBITDA	-18.82M	-99.19M	-112.30M	-102.81M	-85.09M
Net Income	-6.88M	-88.98M	-104.70M	-101.07M	-85.81M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	418.43M	271.56M	228.34M	256.07M	238.87M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	284.67M	216.90M	201.39M	229.59M	219.81M
Total Debt	0.00	2.32M	2.06M	2.36M	1.51M
Total Liabilities	65.98M	42.53M	68.78M	71.22M	21.09M
Stockholders Equity	352.46M	229.02M	159.56M	184.85M	217.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.91M	-87.05M	-82.68M	-35.83M	-68.11M
Operating Cash Flow	45.59M	-86.85M	-81.07M	-31.87M	-66.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-186.81M	-107.47M	105.95M	-45.88M	-76.43M
Financing Cash Flow	97.39M	131.09M	53.01M	46.41M	1.28M

Stoke Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 32.87
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STOK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.25, above the 50-day MA of 32.80, and above the 200-day MA of 24.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STOK.

Stoke Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STOK	61 Neutral	$1.83B	―	12.06%	―	1128.17%	―
RAPP	57 Neutral	$1.27B	-12.79	-28.85%	―	―	-37.07%
XERS	56 Neutral	$936.30M	2,273.17	-5.33%	―	42.05%	76.50%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
SNDX	51 Neutral	$2.09B	―	-206.62%	―	597.19%	0.45%
SION	45 Neutral	$1.55B	-20.11	-22.87%	―	―	―

Stoke Therapeutics Corporate Events

Stoke Therapeutics Awards Discretionary Bonus to CEO Smith

On February 13, 2026, Stoke Therapeutics’ board approved a discretionary bonus of $697,125 for Chief Executive Officer Ian F. Smith, matching his full target annual bonus for 2025 despite his non-participation in the regular annual bonus program that year. The board based this award on the company’s strong clinical and financial performance following Smith’s appointment as interim CEO in March 2025 and permanent CEO in October 2025, as well as a determination that 2025 corporate goal achievement reached 150% of target, highlighting robust operational execution and leadership performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (STOK) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoke Therapeutics stock, see the STOK Stock Forecast page.

Stoke Therapeutics Expands with New Long-Term Waltham Headquarters

On January 21, 2026, Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. signed a long-term lease for a new corporate headquarters and laboratory at 245 Fifth Avenue in Waltham, Massachusetts, expanding its facilities to approximately 98,500 square feet. The lease runs through March 31, 2038, with two five-year extension options at market rates, and carries an estimated $85.5 million in base rent over its term plus a $3 million security deposit via standby letter of credit, underscoring the company’s commitment to scaling its operations and supporting future growth in its research and development footprint.

The most recent analyst rating on (STOK) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoke Therapeutics stock, see the STOK Stock Forecast page.

Stoke Therapeutics Accelerates Phase 3 Dravet Study Timeline

On January 11, 2026, Stoke Therapeutics announced updated, accelerated timelines for its Phase 3 EMPEROR study of zorevunersen in Dravet syndrome, now expecting to complete enrollment of 150 patients in the second quarter of 2026 and to deliver a Phase 3 data readout in mid-2027 that is intended to support a rolling New Drug Application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration starting in the first half of 2027. Following a recent multidisciplinary meeting held as part of zorevunersen’s Breakthrough Therapy Designation, the FDA requested additional information and made no immediate changes to the development program, but discussions continue around potential expedited pathways, while strong enrollment momentum, a global trial footprint, and a cash position of about $391.7 million as of December 31, 2025—together with collaboration proceeds from Biogen, expected to fund operations into 2028—underscore Stoke’s capacity to advance zorevunersen toward potential registration and commercialization in a field that currently lacks disease-modifying therapies for Dravet syndrome.

The most recent analyst rating on (STOK) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Stoke Therapeutics stock, see the STOK Stock Forecast page.