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SSAB (SSAAY)
OTHER OTC:SSAAY
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SSAB
(OTC:SSAAY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(17.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/30/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (low leverage/strong equity) but weakening operating and cash-flow trends (shrinking revenue, lower EBIT vs prior-cycle highs, and negative 2025 free cash flow). Technicals are neutral-to-mildly supportive, while valuation looks reasonable but not cheap for a cyclical. Earnings-call guidance is balanced: improving seasonal volumes and strategic progress offset by near-term margin/cost and end-market headwinds.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
SSAB's large equity base and low leverage provide durable financial flexibility across steel cycles. Strong capitalization supports funding heavy strategic CapEx, absorbs cyclical losses, underpins the dividend policy and reduces refinancing pressure, improving long-term resilience.
Premium product portfolio and innovation
Development of advanced high‑strength and specialty steels (wear‑resistant, AHSS, eco coatings) strengthens product differentiation and OEM ties. A higher share of premium grades supports more stable, higher margins over cycles and reduces exposure to commodity pricing volatility.
Strategic decarbonisation and capacity investments
Large strategic projects (EAF and Luleå) reposition SSAB toward lower‑carbon, modern production and secure future capacity. Once online, these investments can lower long‑run cost, meet regulatory/CBAM demands, and support premium positioning in customers preferring low‑emission steel.
Negative Factors
Shrinking revenue and compressed margins
Sustained revenue decline and sharp EBIT contraction signal weakened pricing power and demand mix deterioration. Persistent margin compression undermines return on invested capital and makes the business more sensitive to input cost swings, limiting sustainable earnings growth absent structural market recovery.
Weaker free cash flow and cash conversion volatility
Negative free cash flow after years of inconsistent cash conversion reflects heavy strategic CapEx and working capital pressure. Reduced FCF weakens internal funding for projects or dividends, raises reliance on balance sheet buffers, and heightens sensitivity to cyclical revenue downturns over the medium term.
Project execution and permit risk
Key decarbonisation benefits hinge on timely power connection and permit outcomes. Delays or appeals could push commissioning, inflate costs and defer emissions/cost advantages. Execution risk threatens expected efficiency gains and prolongs exposure to higher carbon and input costs.
SSAB (SSAAY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.49B
Dividend Yield3.59%
Average Volume (3M)100.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.8
Beta (1Y)0.98
Revenue Growth-4.26%
EPS Growth-33.25%
CountryUS
Employees14,637
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding591,932,700
10 Day Avg. Volume104
30 Day Avg. Volume100
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio-21.46
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.05
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.08
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.30B
SSAB Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionSSAB is a leading global steel company specializing in advanced high-strength steel and other steel products. Headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, SSAB operates in several sectors, including construction, automotive, and heavy machinery. The company is known for its innovative solutions that enhance the performance and sustainability of steel, with core products including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets, plates, and tubular products. SSAB also emphasizes environmentally friendly production techniques and is committed to reducing carbon emissions in the steelmaking process.
How the Company Makes MoneySSAB generates revenue primarily through the sale of steel products to various industries, including automotive, construction, and manufacturing. Key revenue streams include hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel, steel plates, and specialized products tailored for specific applications. The company benefits from strong partnerships with major automotive manufacturers and construction firms, which helps secure long-term contracts and stable revenue. Additionally, SSAB's focus on innovation and high-strength steel products allows it to command premium pricing, thereby enhancing profit margins. The transition towards more sustainable steel production also positions SSAB favorably in a market increasingly focused on environmental responsibility.
SSAB Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: SSAB shows strong strategic progress (major investments, product innovation, improved safety, solid shipments growth, and a healthy net cash position despite large CapEx). However, near-term profitability is pressured by lower realized prices (QoQ and YoY), FX translation headwinds (~SEK 840m), higher maintenance/outage costs, rising scrap prices, and some end‑market weakness (construction, service centers). Management expects seasonal shipment improvements in Q1 and identifies structural upside from CBAM/safeguards and premium product demand, but acknowledges timing and execution risks (project power connection, permit appeals and price realization lags).Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Safety Improvement
Lost time injury frequency improved to 0.56 in 2025 and total recordable injuries also reduced, reflecting stronger safety performance across the organization.
Strong Balance Sheet and Net Cash Position
Net cash at year-end was SEK 11.6 billion (end-2024: SEK 17.8 billion), maintaining a healthy net debt/equity position of around -17% and within financial targets despite heavy strategic investments.
Full-Year Operating Result and YoY EBITDA Improvement
Full-year operating result was SEK 6.1 billion. Q4 EBITDA was SEK 1.8 billion, up vs Q4 2024 (SEK 1.6 billion) representing an EBITDA margin of ~8% (vs 7% a year earlier).
Shipment Growth in Q4
Q4 shipments were 1,515 kilotonnes, up 49 kt (3%) vs Q3 and up 67 kt (5%) vs prior-year Q4, with all steel divisions reporting higher year‑on‑year volumes.
Product & Commercial Innovation
Launched and developed premium grades and offerings: Hardox HiAce (wear-resistant alternative to stainless), Docol high edge tailored AHSS for automotive, a new complex phase product in collaboration with Gestamp, and a rapeseed-oil based environmentally friendly color coating via Ruukki Construction.
Strategic Projects Progressing
Oxelösund EAF project progressing to plan with targeted production start-up early 2027; Luleå project advanced (groundbreaking, environmental permit, customer/supplier agreements). Strategic CapEx executed: SEK ~7.2 billion in 2025; 2026 strategic CapEx guided to SEK 10.5 billion (Luleå ~SEK 6 billion, Oxelösund <SEK 3 billion).
Dividend Proposal
Board proposed a SEK 2.00 dividend per share to be decided at the AGM, demonstrating confidence in cash generation and capital allocation despite heavy investment spending.
Operational Execution in Americas
SSAB Americas delivered strong December shipments and order intake in Q4, helping the division reach expected result levels despite a weaker USD translation into SEK.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Revenue and Operating Result Decline
Q4 revenue was SEK 22.1 billion, down 4% vs Q3 and down 6% vs Q4 2024. Q4 operating result fell to SEK 756 million from SEK 1.9 billion in Q3, driven by lower prices and higher maintenance costs.
Price Weakness Impacting Profitability
Average realized prices were ~3% lower QoQ (Q4) and ~8% lower YoY (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024). Price declines contributed the largest negative EBIT impacts in Europe (~SEK 0.5 billion QoQ), Americas (~SEK 240 million QoQ) and Special Steels (~SEK 165 million QoQ).
Significant FX Headwind
Swedish krona strengthened ~20% vs USD during 2025; FX translation effects produced a total negative impact of about SEK 840 million in the YoY analysis and reduced reported results when converting USD‑denominated sales into SEK.
Maintenance Outages and Higher Costs
Extensive maintenance outages (Special Steels in Q4; Oxelösund, Mobile, Hämeenlinna) increased unabsorbed costs and maintenance-related expense, contributing to a net SEK ~570 million negative impact on EBIT in the quarter and higher seasonal fixed costs.
Net Cash Reduction Driven by Strategic Investment and Payouts
Net cash decreased from SEK 17.8 billion to SEK 11.6 billion after SEK 7.2 billion strategic investments, SEK 2.6 billion dividend, and other effects (cash from operations SEK 6.5 billion).
Weak End‑Market Conditions for Construction & Service Companies
Tibnor and Ruukki Construction reported lower operating results due to weak market activity and seasonality; overall construction segment activity expected to be low in H1 2026 with possible recovery in H2 2026.
Raw Material and Scrap Price Volatility Risk
Scrap prices began rising toward end-2025 and continued upward into early 2026, creating margin pressure (lag effects on iron ore and coking coal costs noted) and a Q1 2026 headwind to consumption cost and spreads.
Project/Execution Risk: Oxelösund Power Connection and Permits
Oxelösund EAF start-up remains dependent on a 72 km power-line connection and there are appeals related to permits; management flagged potential risks though project is reported on schedule and budgeted double-manning/ramp costs have been considered in the 2026 budget.
Near‑term Margin Pressure and Price Realization Lag
Management reiterated lagged pass-through of spot price improvements due to existing quarterly/annual contracts and long qualification/consumption lags (especially in Special Steels), constraining immediate price recovery despite some positive market indicators.
Additional Operating Cost Pressure from Digital and Emissions Items
Digital renewal projects (supporting Luleå and other transformations) are expected to increase Other division operating costs by ~SEK 200 million annually; CO2 emission allowance cash-flow impact estimated around SEK 724m in 2025 and ~SEK 740m in 2026.
Company Guidance
The company guided that Q1 will see seasonally higher shipments (significantly higher for Special Steels, higher for SSAB Europe and somewhat higher for SSAB Americas) with price guidance of flat Q‑on‑Q for Special Steels, Europe +0–5% and modest increases expected in the Americas (guidance excludes FX), noting scrap has risen late 2025 and will pressure Q1 margins; raw‑material cost lags are ~1 quarter for iron ore and ~1.5 quarters for coking coal. For 2026 they expect maintenance activity and outage costs at similar levels to 2025 (outage cost ~SEK1.41bn; maintenance CapEx just below SEK3bn), strategic CapEx of SEK10.5bn (≈SEK3bn Oxelösund, ≈SEK6bn Luleå, ≈SEK2bn other), an emissions‑allowance cash flow impact of ~SEK740m, and incremental digital/IT operating cost of ~SEK200m per year; financials ended 2025 with net cash SEK11.6bn (net debt/equity ≈‑17%), full‑year operating result SEK6.1bn, Q4 shipments 1,515 kt, Q4 revenue SEK22.1bn, Q4 EBITDA SEK1.8bn and Q4 EBIT SEK756m, and the Board has proposed a SEK2 per share dividend (to be paid Q2 2026); Oxelösund EAF start‑up is planned early 2027 with a ~6‑month qualification window.SSAB Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Balance sheet strength (large equity base and low leverage) supports resilience, but fundamentals are weakening: revenue has been shrinking, EBIT is well below 2023 levels, and 2025 free cash flow turned negative despite positive operating cash flow—highlighting cyclical earnings and softer cash conversion.Income Statement
Profitability is positive and still meaningful in 2025 (net income of ~4.9B and EBIT of ~5.7B), but earnings power has cooled materially versus 2023–2024 (EBIT down from ~16.5B in 2023 and ~7.9B in 2024). Revenue has been shrinking for several years (2023–2025 show negative revenue growth), and margins have compressed sharply from the strong 2021–2023 period. A major weakness is the historical volatility, including a deep loss year in 2022, which highlights cyclicality in steel demand/pricing.66
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a clear strength: equity is large (~67.8B in 2025) relative to total debt (~11.3B), and leverage has remained conservative across recent years (debt-to-equity generally in the mid-teens, with 2024 at ~0.14). Total assets are stable (~106B in 2025), suggesting no major balance sheet stress. The main drawback is that returns on equity can swing significantly with the cycle (including negative ROE in 2022), so strong capitalization does not fully insulate shareholders from earnings volatility.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains solid in 2025 (~9.5B), but free cash flow turned negative (~-3.2B) after being positive in 2023–2024, indicating heavier investment and/or working-capital pressure. Cash generation has also been inconsistent over time, with large swings from very strong free cash flow in 2021–2023 to weaker results more recently. While the business can generate substantial cash in good steel markets, the latest year shows reduced cash conversion and higher variability.57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 90.45B | 100.48B | 119.49B | 124.98B | 95.89B |
| Gross Profit | 11.65B | 11.56B | 22.55B | -2.12B | 23.47B |
| EBITDA | 9.65B | 13.25B | 21.26B | 32.62B | 22.21B |
| Net Income | 4.90B | 13.03B | 13.03B | -10.88B | 14.66B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 106.13B | 110.73B | 107.84B | 109.71B | 112.02B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 22.77B | 27.81B | 28.92B | 24.90B | 13.80B |
| Total Debt | 11.34B | 10.15B | 10.62B | 10.68B | 12.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 38.31B | 39.71B | 39.89B | 42.52B | 38.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 67.78B | 70.97B | 67.87B | 67.12B | 73.48B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.25B | 3.68B | 14.91B | 13.21B | 11.49B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.47B | 11.90B | 21.47B | 18.16B | 14.87B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.11B | -6.61B | -5.29B | -3.89B | -2.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.81B | -5.20B | -12.77B | -723.00M | -5.03B |
SSAB Technical Analysis
Positive
3.83
Price Trends
4.15
Positive
3.76
Positive
3.39
Positive
Market Momentum
0.08
Negative
59.17
Neutral
94.69
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SSAAY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.31, below the 50-day MA of 4.15, and above the 200-day MA of 3.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.69 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SSAAY.
SSAB Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $8.16B | 18.89 | 10.51% | 1.02% | -1.61% | -81.36% | |
65 Neutral | $8.49B | 17.83 | 6.57% | 3.59% | -4.26% | -33.25% | |
65 Neutral | $8.52B | 20.02 | 3.49% | 7.02% | -16.69% | 585.38% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $7.48B | 32.61 | 2.47% | 2.92% | -2.53% | -36.08% | |
53 Neutral | $2.15B | -8.09 | -10.50% | ― | -5.79% | -5.30% | |
49 Neutral | $6.50B | -3.90 | -22.96% | ― | -6.76% | -255.94% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
SSAAY
SSAB
4.28
1.09
34.23%
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11.40
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CMC
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GGB
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3.98
1.26
46.32%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
1.64
0.24
17.14%
TX
Ternium SA
43.40
16.93
63.96%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.