Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM)
NYSE:SRFM
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Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
(NYSE:SRFM)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(10.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial fundamentals (large losses, heavy cash burn, and negative equity with meaningful debt). The earnings call was a notable positive due to improved adjusted EBITDA loss guidance and operational traction, but technicals remain bearish and valuation is not supportive given negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & On-Demand Expansion
Surf Air shows durable top-line momentum: TTM revenue surged ~198% while its Surf On Demand private charter business delivered outsized growth and margin gains. Persistent demand in the on-demand channel diversifies revenue, supports unit economics improvement and creates a higher-margin revenue mix over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Fragile Capital Structure
Negative equity combined with meaningful debt leaves Surf Air with constrained financial flexibility. This capital-structure weakness raises refinancing and covenant risk, limits ability to fund growth or absorb shocks, and increases the probability of dilutive or costly financing events absent sustained operating profitability improvements.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & On-Demand Expansion
Surf Air shows durable top-line momentum: TTM revenue surged ~198% while its Surf On Demand private charter business delivered outsized growth and margin gains. Persistent demand in the on-demand channel diversifies revenue, supports unit economics improvement and creates a higher-margin revenue mix over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$124.49M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.59
Revenue Growth-3.24%
EPS Growth35.57%
CountryUS
Employees556
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.37
Shares Outstanding100,396,870
10 Day Avg. Volume2,448,067
30 Day Avg. Volume5,133,441
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-0.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit84.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.42Price Target Upside298.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$128.87M
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Surf Air Mobility Inc. operates as an electric aviation and air travel company in the United States. It offers an air mobility platform with scheduled routes and on demand charter flights operated by third parties; and air cargo services. The comp...
How the Company Makes Money
Surf Air Mobility primarily generates revenue from air transportation services. This includes passenger ticket and flight revenue from operating scheduled commuter flights and other flight services it offers. The company may also earn ancillary av...
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and commercial momentum driven by SurfOS and Surf On Demand, including a revenue beat, record charter growth (77% YoY), improved adjusted EBITDA and a tightened full-year EBITDA loss outlook (~40% improvement). Strategic moves — the BETA partnership, capital raise with insider participation, and safety/compliance milestones — reduce execution risk. Near-term negatives include a larger GAAP net loss, intentional scheduled-service revenue decline (-13% YoY), short-term fuel and weather headwinds affecting Q2, and remaining execution/certification risks tied to SurfOS monetization and electric aircraft timing. On balance, the positive operational traction, improved guidance, and clear commercialization targets materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Revenue Beat and Year-over-Year Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $25.6M came in at the high end of guidance ($24M–$26M), representing a 9% year-over-year increase. Full-year revenue guidance maintained at $128M–$138M, implying 20%–30% growth vs. 2025.
Negative Updates
Net Loss Increased Year-over-Year
Net loss for Q1 2026 was $20.3M vs. $18.5M in Q1 2025. The increase reflects continued strategic investment in SurfOS R&D, stock-based compensation and other nonrecurring items, despite adjusted EBITDA improvement.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Beat and Year-over-Year Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $25.6M came in at the high end of guidance ($24M–$26M), representing a 9% year-over-year increase. Full-year revenue guidance maintained at $128M–$138M, implying 20%–30% growth vs. 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Surf Air Mobility reiterated full‑year revenue guidance of $128–$138 million (20–30% YoY growth) and materially narrowed full‑year adjusted EBITDA loss guidance to a $25–$30 million loss (≈40% improvement from prior $40–$50M guidance), driven by expected SurfOS cost saves (airline −6%, on‑demand charter −15%), corporate staffing reductions (−32%) and professional services cuts (−17%) that together should yield $15–$20M of incremental adjusted EBITDA versus prior guidance; Q2 guidance is revenue $27–$30M and adjusted EBITDA loss $10.5–$8.5M (noting fuel and Hawaii weather headwinds). These guidance updates follow Q1 results of $25.6M revenue (high end of guidance), adjusted EBITDA loss $12.3M (beat), net loss $20.3M, scheduled service revenue $15.5M (−13% YoY), Surf On Demand $10.1M (+77% YoY), ~65,000 passengers on ~13,000 departures, controllable completion factor 96%, on‑time departures 72% and arrivals 78%; management said SurfOS commercialization (targets: 100 brokers by year‑end, 10 additional OperatorOS LOIs and 5 live operators, plus multiyear multimillion‑dollar enterprise deals) should help narrow adjusted EBITDA loss in H2 2026.Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
14
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
9
Very Negative
Cash Flow
12
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 108.66M | 106.56M | 119.42M | 60.51M | 20.27M | 11.80M |
| Gross Profit | 2.50M | 4.18M | 9.49M | -5.17M | -5.58M | -3.75M |
| EBITDA | -65.91M | -67.58M | -58.24M | -247.27M | -72.74M | -32.59M |
| Net Income | -112.35M | -110.56M | -74.91M | -250.70M | -74.36M | -35.78M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 120.83M | 131.68M | 124.06M | 110.99M | 13.70M | 7.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.16M | 12.67M | 21.11M | 1.72M | 6.00K | 719.00K |
| Total Debt | 90.50M | 83.47M | 92.49M | 47.45M | 30.25M | 23.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 177.42M | 186.54M | 244.06M | 188.47M | 235.79M | 180.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | -56.59M | -54.86M | -120.00M | -77.48M | -222.09M | -173.03M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -69.86M | -72.55M | -68.43M | -72.15M | -28.14M | -24.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -60.61M | -64.16M | -54.32M | -64.37M | -28.04M | -23.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.03M | -5.71M | -3.61M | -7.10M | -298.00K | -261.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 77.76M | 70.96M | 77.17M | 72.99M | 27.67M | 18.25M |
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.36
Price Trends
1.21
Positive
1.69
Negative
2.63
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
50.29
Neutral
67.90
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SRFM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.23, above the 50-day MA of 1.21, and below the 200-day MA of 2.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.90 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SRFM.
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Risk Analysis
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. disclosed 80 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Surf Air Mobility, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | $2.46B | -48.60 | -3.25% | ― | 3.31% | 82.72% | |
50 Neutral | $124.49M | -0.23 | 140.66% | ― | -3.24% | 35.57% | |
50 Neutral | $1.39B | -3.78 | -88.57% | ― | -0.47% | -632.83% | |
50 Neutral | $242.97M | -3.68 | 6.87% | ― | 14.51% | 28.04% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SRFM
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Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Surf Air Mobility Secures New Asset-Backed Financing Facility
Neutral
Apr 24, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Surf Air Mobility, Inc. and two subsidiaries entered into a secured promissory note of up to $15 million with lender LamVen, with advances capped at $5 million per 90-day period and the note maturing on April 20, 2029. The borro...
Private Placements and Financing
Surf Air Mobility Announces $15 Million Equity Financing
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Surf Air Mobility entered into a securities purchase agreement with LamVen LLC and another institutional investor for a registered direct offering of 13,318,181 common shares at $1.10 per share, while certain directors and offic...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.