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Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
(NYSE:SRFM)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$0.80
▼(-41.32% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/02/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (large losses, heavy cash burn, and negative equity) and a bearish technical trend (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting positives come from improved earnings-call guidance (materially narrower adjusted EBITDA loss outlook) and supportive corporate events (SurfOS commercialization traction and debt/liquidity restructuring), but these do not yet outweigh the current financial and balance-sheet stress.
Positive Factors
SurfOS commercial traction (BrokerOS Wheels Up deal)
A two-year, up-to-$12M Wheels Up BrokerOS contract validates SurfOS as a commercial product beyond internal ops. Recurring subscription revenue from third-party enterprise customers diversifies cash flow, supports margin scaling, and reduces sole dependence on airline ticketing economics over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Highly stressed balance sheet and negative equity
Negative equity and sizable secured debt materially constrain financial flexibility, increasing refinancing and covenant risk. A fragile capital structure raises the probability of dilutive or asset‑backed financings to fund operations, which can limit long-term strategic optionality and elevate creditor control over assets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
SurfOS commercial traction (BrokerOS Wheels Up deal)
A two-year, up-to-$12M Wheels Up BrokerOS contract validates SurfOS as a commercial product beyond internal ops. Recurring subscription revenue from third-party enterprise customers diversifies cash flow, supports margin scaling, and reduces sole dependence on airline ticketing economics over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$96.29M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)9.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.73
Revenue Growth-3.24%
EPS Growth35.57%
CountryUS
Employees573
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-5.37
Shares Outstanding111,594,600
10 Day Avg. Volume11,448,767
30 Day Avg. Volume9,883,412
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-0.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit78.84
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.31Price Target Upside290.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.66
Revenue Forecast (FY)$128.87M
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Surf Air Mobility Inc. is a U.S.-based company specializing in electric aviation and broader air travel services. The firm provides an air mobility platform that includes both regular, scheduled flight routes and customized, on-demand charter serv...
How the Company Makes Money
Surf Air Mobility primarily generates revenue from air transportation services. This includes passenger ticket and flight revenue from operating scheduled commuter flights and other flight services it offers. The company may also earn ancillary av...
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and commercial momentum driven by SurfOS and Surf On Demand, including a revenue beat, record charter growth (77% YoY), improved adjusted EBITDA and a tightened full-year EBITDA loss outlook (~40% improvement). Strategic moves — the BETA partnership, capital raise with insider participation, and safety/compliance milestones — reduce execution risk. Near-term negatives include a larger GAAP net loss, intentional scheduled-service revenue decline (-13% YoY), short-term fuel and weather headwinds affecting Q2, and remaining execution/certification risks tied to SurfOS monetization and electric aircraft timing. On balance, the positive operational traction, improved guidance, and clear commercialization targets materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Revenue Beat and Year-over-Year Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $25.6M came in at the high end of guidance ($24M–$26M), representing a 9% year-over-year increase. Full-year revenue guidance maintained at $128M–$138M, implying 20%–30% growth vs. 2025.
Negative Updates
Net Loss Increased Year-over-Year
Net loss for Q1 2026 was $20.3M vs. $18.5M in Q1 2025. The increase reflects continued strategic investment in SurfOS R&D, stock-based compensation and other nonrecurring items, despite adjusted EBITDA improvement.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Beat and Year-over-Year Growth
Q1 2026 revenue of $25.6M came in at the high end of guidance ($24M–$26M), representing a 9% year-over-year increase. Full-year revenue guidance maintained at $128M–$138M, implying 20%–30% growth vs. 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Surf Air Mobility reiterated full‑year revenue guidance of $128–$138 million (20–30% YoY growth) and materially narrowed full‑year adjusted EBITDA loss guidance to a $25–$30 million loss (≈40% improvement from prior $40–$50M guidance), driven by expected SurfOS cost saves (airline −6%, on‑demand charter −15%), corporate staffing reductions (−32%) and professional services cuts (−17%) that together should yield $15–$20M of incremental adjusted EBITDA versus prior guidance; Q2 guidance is revenue $27–$30M and adjusted EBITDA loss $10.5–$8.5M (noting fuel and Hawaii weather headwinds). These guidance updates follow Q1 results of $25.6M revenue (high end of guidance), adjusted EBITDA loss $12.3M (beat), net loss $20.3M, scheduled service revenue $15.5M (−13% YoY), Surf On Demand $10.1M (+77% YoY), ~65,000 passengers on ~13,000 departures, controllable completion factor 96%, on‑time departures 72% and arrivals 78%; management said SurfOS commercialization (targets: 100 brokers by year‑end, 10 additional OperatorOS LOIs and 5 live operators, plus multiyear multimillion‑dollar enterprise deals) should help narrow adjusted EBITDA loss in H2 2026.Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
14
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
9
Very Negative
Cash Flow
12
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 108.66M | 106.56M | 119.42M | 60.51M | 20.27M | 11.80M |
| Gross Profit | 2.50M | 4.18M | 9.49M | -5.17M | -5.58M | -3.75M |
| EBITDA | -71.63M | -88.44M | -58.24M | -247.27M | -72.74M | -32.59M |
| Net Income | -112.35M | -110.56M | -74.91M | -250.70M | -74.36M | -35.78M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 120.83M | 131.68M | 124.06M | 110.99M | 13.70M | 7.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.16M | 12.67M | 21.11M | 1.72M | 6.00K | 719.00K |
| Total Debt | 90.50M | 83.47M | 92.49M | 47.45M | 30.25M | 23.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 177.42M | 186.54M | 244.06M | 188.47M | 235.79M | 180.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | -56.59M | -54.86M | -120.00M | -77.48M | -222.09M | -173.03M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.64M | -72.55M | -68.43M | -72.15M | -28.14M | -24.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -60.61M | -64.16M | -54.32M | -64.37M | -28.04M | -23.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.03M | -5.71M | -3.61M | -7.10M | -298.00K | -261.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 77.76M | 70.96M | 77.17M | 72.99M | 27.67M | 18.25M |
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
1.36
Price Trends
1.11
Negative
1.27
Negative
2.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
36.58
Neutral
3.26
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SRFM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.98, above the 50-day MA of 1.11, and below the 200-day MA of 2.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.26 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SRFM.
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Risk Analysis
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. disclosed 80 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Surf Air Mobility, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
51 Neutral | $2.80B | ― | -3.25% | ― | 3.31% | 82.72% | |
50 Neutral | $1.47B | -4.06 | -88.57% | ― | -0.47% | -632.83% | |
47 Neutral | $145.97M | -1.34 | 6.87% | ― | 14.51% | 28.04% | |
46 Neutral | $96.29M | -0.15 | 140.66% | ― | -3.24% | 35.57% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SRFM
Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
0.81
-5.11
-86.25%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
107.75
55.45
106.02%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
6.54
2.35
56.09%
FLYX
flyExclusive
1.37
-1.07
-43.85%
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingProduct-Related Announcements
Surf Air Mobility advances Hawaiʻi electric aviation initiative
Positive
Jul 2, 2026
On June 26, 2026, Surf Air Mobility announced an electric aircraft demonstration program in Hawaiʻi with BETA Technologies, using BETA’s ALIA CTOL aircraft over six to eight weeks to gather operational, economic and infrastructure data....
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Surf Air Mobility Refinances Debt and Enhances Liquidity
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Surf Air Mobility refinanced its existing senior secured convertible note, originally $74 million and recently at about $46.9 million outstanding, into a new $16.9 million senior secured convertible note due 2027 and a $30 millio...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Surf Air Mobility launches AI BrokerOS with Wheels Up
Positive
Jun 25, 2026
Surf Air Mobility announced on June 25, 2026, that Wheels Up will be the launch customer for its Enterprise BrokerOS, an AI-enabled charter broker software built on Palantir’s Foundry and AIP platforms. The deal underscores Surf Air Mobility...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Surf Air Mobility Secures New Asset-Backed Financing Facility
Neutral
Apr 24, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Surf Air Mobility, Inc. and two subsidiaries entered into a secured promissory note of up to $15 million with lender LamVen, with advances capped at $5 million per 90-day period and the note maturing on April 20, 2029. The borro...
Private Placements and Financing
Surf Air Mobility Announces $15 Million Equity Financing
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Surf Air Mobility entered into a securities purchase agreement with LamVen LLC and another institutional investor for a registered direct offering of 13,318,181 common shares at $1.10 per share, while certain directors and offic...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.