Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM)
NYSE:SRFM
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Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
(NYSE:SRFM)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-26.47% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/23/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, heavy cash burn, and negative equity) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call adds some support via improved operations, debt reduction, and stronger 2026 revenue guidance, but ongoing expected EBITDA losses and execution/timing risks limit upside. Valuation offers limited help given negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Airline ops profitability & operational improvement
Sustained airline-operations profitability and materially improved reliability create a durable operating base. Consistent completion and on-time metrics reduce irregularity costs, improve customer retention, and provide a stable cash-generation runway to scale on-demand services and support platform monetization over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn & negative free cash flow
Large, ongoing negative operating and free cash flow requires recurrent external financing and increases dilution risk. Heavy cash burn constrains strategic optionality, limits the company’s ability to fund electrification and platform rollouts internally, and raises vulnerability to capital-market shocks over the 2–6 month horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Airline ops profitability & operational improvement
Sustained airline-operations profitability and materially improved reliability create a durable operating base. Consistent completion and on-time metrics reduce irregularity costs, improve customer retention, and provide a stable cash-generation runway to scale on-demand services and support platform monetization over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$107.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.48
Revenue Growth-10.77%
EPS Growth45.14%
CountryUS
Employees556
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.05
Shares Outstanding97,891,510
10 Day Avg. Volume2,475,956
30 Day Avg. Volume2,387,318
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-0.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit25.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.13Price Target Upside423.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.3
Revenue Forecast (FY)$131.51M
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Surf Air Mobility Inc. operates as an electric aviation and air travel company in the United States. It offers an air mobility platform with scheduled routes and on demand charter flights operated by third parties; and air cargo services. The comp...
How the Company Makes Money
Surf Air Mobility’s revenue model is primarily based on providing air transportation services and related aviation services. Key revenue streams include: (1) passenger flight revenue generated from selling seats and/or memberships for scheduled or...
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive strategic pivot and strong operational progress: airline operations achieved profitability, key operational metrics materially improved, net debt declined substantially, Surf OS and BrokerOS show early commercial traction, and a significant partnership and aircraft order with Beta Technologies positions the company as an early mover in electric aircraft operations and MRO services. These positive developments are balanced by near-term revenue declines due to exit of unprofitable routes, a consolidated adjusted EBITDA loss that is expected to continue in 2026 as the company invests in Surf OS and Hawaii, and dependency on aircraft certification timelines. Overall, the tone is optimistic and growth-oriented, with clear execution milestones and quantified plans, but execution and timing risks (certification, commercialization pacing, and continued investment needs) remain.Positive Updates
Consistent Guidance Execution
Met or exceeded revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for eight consecutive quarters, demonstrating sustained execution against the transformation plan.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline in 2025
Full-year 2025 revenue of $106.6M declined 11% versus 2024. Declines driven by exits of unprofitable scheduled-service routes: scheduled service revenue down 15% for the full year and down 19% in Q4 year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Guidance Execution
Met or exceeded revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for eight consecutive quarters, demonstrating sustained execution against the transformation plan.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Surf Air Mobility guided full-year 2026 revenue of $128–$138 million (up 20%–30% YoY versus 2025 revenue of $106.6M) and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $40–$50 million, noting revenue growth will be back‑half weighted and that FY2026 guidance excludes early electric‑aircraft contributions; Q1 2026 guidance is revenue of $24–$26 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of $13.5–$15.5 million (Q1 guidance excludes Surf OS revenue). Management reiterated 2025 results of $106.6M revenue, a full‑year airline operations positive adjusted EBITDA, a 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss of $41.7M (versus $44.1M in 2024), Q4 revenue of $26.4M (within guidance $25.5–$27.5M) and a Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss just under $8M (within guidance $8.0–$6.5M); operational metrics improved to a controllable completion factor of 98% (Q4 98% vs Q3 96% and Q4 2024 89%), on‑time departures 72% (from 62%) and on‑time arrivals 81% (from 74%). They also noted balance‑sheet progress (net debt down 47% to $74M from $139M at 12/31/2024 after raising over $100M equity and $48M convertible note conversion), Surf OS commercial rollout on track for 2026 (with meaningful revenue in H2), and strategic electrification commitments including a firm order for 25 Beta aircraft (+75 options) that management expects could eventually deliver ~30% operating‑cost improvement.Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
16
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 106.56M | 119.42M | 60.51M | 20.27M | 11.80M |
| Gross Profit | 4.18M | 9.49M | -5.17M | -5.58M | -3.75M |
| EBITDA | -67.58M | -58.24M | -247.27M | -72.74M | -32.59M |
| Net Income | -110.56M | -74.91M | -250.70M | -74.36M | -35.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 131.68M | 124.06M | 110.99M | 13.70M | 7.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.67M | 21.11M | 1.72M | 6.00K | 719.00K |
| Total Debt | 83.47M | 92.49M | 47.45M | 30.25M | 23.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 186.54M | 244.06M | 188.47M | 235.79M | 180.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | -54.86M | -120.00M | -77.48M | -222.09M | -173.03M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -72.55M | -68.43M | -72.15M | -28.14M | -24.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -64.16M | -54.32M | -64.37M | -28.04M | -23.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.71M | -3.61M | -7.10M | -298.00K | -261.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 70.96M | 77.17M | 72.99M | 27.67M | 18.25M |
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.36
Price Trends
1.62
Negative
1.96
Negative
3.20
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Negative
50.05
Neutral
67.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SRFM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.21, below the 50-day MA of 1.62, and below the 200-day MA of 3.20, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SRFM.
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Risk Analysis
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Surf Air Mobility, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $855.69M | 9.24 | 8.62% | ― | 4.36% | -25.89% | |
49 Neutral | $918.93M | -7.87 | -27.39% | ― | -1.35% | -261.43% | |
49 Neutral | $203.80M | -6.36 | 6.23% | ― | 14.85% | 21.68% | |
46 Neutral | $107.68M | -0.37 | 110.96% | ― | -10.77% | 45.14% | |
46 Neutral | $1.38B | 8.68 | -4.22% | ― | 3.31% | 82.72% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SRFM
Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
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-54.92%
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Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Surf Air Mobility Announces $15 Million Equity Financing
Neutral
Apr 21, 2026
On April 20, 2026, Surf Air Mobility entered into a securities purchase agreement with LamVen LLC and another institutional investor for a registered direct offering of 13,318,181 common shares at $1.10 per share, while certain directors and offic...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.