Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM)
NYSE:SRFM
Top Page
Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
(NYSE:SRFM)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-11.50% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/17/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, negative equity, and heavy cash burn) and bearish technical signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call provides a partial offset through improved execution, reduced net debt, and upbeat 2026 growth guidance, but continued expected EBITDA losses and certification/commercialization timing risks temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Beta partnership & aircraft order
A firm order and exclusive MRO designation with Beta positions Surf Air as an early operator and service hub for electric regional aircraft. This can yield durable competitive advantages: first-mover route experience, co-marketing, and potential fleet cost reductions (~30% op-cost improvement management expects), supporting structural differentiation if certification and scale follow.
Negative Factors
Stressed balance sheet
Persistent negative equity and meaningful debt create a structural constraint on strategic flexibility. This weak capital structure raises refinancing and dilution risk, makes large investments costlier, and limits the firm's ability to absorb operational setbacks or fund multi-year electrification and Surf OS commercialization without additional external capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Beta partnership & aircraft order
A firm order and exclusive MRO designation with Beta positions Surf Air as an early operator and service hub for electric regional aircraft. This can yield durable competitive advantages: first-mover route experience, co-marketing, and potential fleet cost reductions (~30% op-cost improvement management expects), supporting structural differentiation if certification and scale follow.
Read all positive factors
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. (SRFM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$87.00M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)3.38
Revenue Growth-8.51%
EPS Growth82.15%
CountryUS
Employees556
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding76,993,256
10 Day Avg. Volume1,586,509
30 Day Avg. Volume2,128,806
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.74
Price to Sales (P/S)0.38
P/FCF Ratio-0.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit26.42
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.13Price Target Upside530.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$115.26M
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Surf Air Mobility Inc. operates as an electric aviation and air travel company in the United States. It offers an air mobility platform with scheduled routes and on demand charter flights operated by third parties; and air cargo services. The comp...
How the Company Makes Money
Surf Air Mobility’s revenue model is primarily based on providing air transportation services and related aviation services. Key revenue streams include: (1) passenger flight revenue generated from selling seats and/or memberships for scheduled or...
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive strategic pivot and strong operational progress: airline operations achieved profitability, key operational metrics materially improved, net debt declined substantially, Surf OS and BrokerOS show early commercial traction, and a significant partnership and aircraft order with Beta Technologies positions the company as an early mover in electric aircraft operations and MRO services. These positive developments are balanced by near-term revenue declines due to exit of unprofitable routes, a consolidated adjusted EBITDA loss that is expected to continue in 2026 as the company invests in Surf OS and Hawaii, and dependency on aircraft certification timelines. Overall, the tone is optimistic and growth-oriented, with clear execution milestones and quantified plans, but execution and timing risks (certification, commercialization pacing, and continued investment needs) remain.Positive Updates
Consistent Guidance Execution
Met or exceeded revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for eight consecutive quarters, demonstrating sustained execution against the transformation plan.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline in 2025
Full-year 2025 revenue of $106.6M declined 11% versus 2024. Declines driven by exits of unprofitable scheduled-service routes: scheduled service revenue down 15% for the full year and down 19% in Q4 year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Guidance Execution
Met or exceeded revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for eight consecutive quarters, demonstrating sustained execution against the transformation plan.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Surf Air Mobility guided full-year 2026 revenue of $128–$138 million (up 20%–30% YoY versus 2025 revenue of $106.6M) and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $40–$50 million, noting revenue growth will be back‑half weighted and that FY2026 guidance excludes early electric‑aircraft contributions; Q1 2026 guidance is revenue of $24–$26 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of $13.5–$15.5 million (Q1 guidance excludes Surf OS revenue). Management reiterated 2025 results of $106.6M revenue, a full‑year airline operations positive adjusted EBITDA, a 2025 adjusted EBITDA loss of $41.7M (versus $44.1M in 2024), Q4 revenue of $26.4M (within guidance $25.5–$27.5M) and a Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss just under $8M (within guidance $8.0–$6.5M); operational metrics improved to a controllable completion factor of 98% (Q4 98% vs Q3 96% and Q4 2024 89%), on‑time departures 72% (from 62%) and on‑time arrivals 81% (from 74%). They also noted balance‑sheet progress (net debt down 47% to $74M from $139M at 12/31/2024 after raising over $100M equity and $48M convertible note conversion), Surf OS commercial rollout on track for 2026 (with meaningful revenue in H2), and strategic electrification commitments including a firm order for 25 Beta aircraft (+75 options) that management expects could eventually deliver ~30% operating‑cost improvement.Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
16
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 106.56M | 119.42M | 60.51M | 20.27M | 11.80M |
| Gross Profit | 4.18M | 9.49M | -5.17M | -5.58M | -3.75M |
| EBITDA | -67.58M | -58.24M | -247.27M | -72.74M | -32.59M |
| Net Income | -110.56M | -74.91M | -250.70M | -74.36M | -35.78M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 131.68M | 124.06M | 110.99M | 13.70M | 7.56M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.67M | 21.11M | 1.72M | 6.00K | 719.00K |
| Total Debt | 83.47M | 92.49M | 47.45M | 30.25M | 23.47M |
| Total Liabilities | 186.54M | 244.06M | 188.47M | 235.79M | 180.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | -54.86M | -120.00M | -77.48M | -222.09M | -173.03M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -70.10M | -68.43M | -72.15M | -28.14M | -24.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -64.16M | -54.32M | -64.37M | -28.04M | -23.93M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.71M | -3.61M | -7.10M | -298.00K | -261.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 70.96M | 77.17M | 72.99M | 27.67M | 18.25M |
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
1.13
Price Trends
1.70
Negative
2.01
Negative
3.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Negative
33.52
Neutral
40.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SRFM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.25, below the 50-day MA of 1.70, and below the 200-day MA of 3.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SRFM.
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Risk Analysis
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. disclosed 77 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Surf Air Mobility, Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Surf Air Mobility, Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $938.60M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
49 Neutral | $215.12M | -6.36 | 6.23% | ― | ― | ― | |
48 Neutral | $1.58B | -34.43 | -4.22% | ― | 3.29% | -983.31% | |
45 Neutral | $877.11M | -7.87 | -27.39% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% | |
44 Neutral | $87.00M | -0.37 | 110.96% | ― | -8.51% | 82.15% |
* Industrials Sector Average
SRFM
Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
1.13
-1.23
-52.12%
ALGT
Allegiant Travel Company
85.58
39.07
84.00%
SNCY
Sun Country Airlines Holdings
17.32
6.97
67.34%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
3.82
0.45
13.35%
FLYX
flyExclusive
2.28
-0.66
-22.45%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.