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Suburban Propane Partners (SPH)
NYSE:SPH
US Market
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Suburban Propane (SPH) AI Stock Analysis

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SPH

Suburban Propane

(NYSE:SPH)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$20.50
â–²(10.45% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:07/24/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance (strong cash flow and improved balance sheet metrics) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by mixed technicals (longer-term averages overhead) and some business headwinds noted on the earnings call, including weather-driven volume variability and still-elevated leverage.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$206M TTM) and materially positive free cash flow (~$133M) provide durable internal funding for capital projects, distributions, and debt reduction. Strong cash conversion supports disciplined allocation, lowers reliance on external financing, and increases resilience across cycles.
Negative Factors
Margin quality
A negative reported TTM gross margin alongside slightly declining revenue signals possible cost or accounting issues undermining core margin sustainability. If persistent, weak gross margin reduces the buffer for operating and capex needs and makes earnings and cash flow more sensitive to commodity and operational swings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Sustained operating cash flow (~$206M TTM) and materially positive free cash flow (~$133M) provide durable internal funding for capital projects, distributions, and debt reduction. Strong cash conversion supports disciplined allocation, lowers reliance on external financing, and increases resilience across cycles.
Read all positive factors

Suburban Propane (SPH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Suburban Propane Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., operating through its subsidiaries, specializes in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, fuel oil, and other refined fuels. The company structures its diverse operations across four main segments. The P...
How the Company Makes Money
Suburban Propane makes money primarily by purchasing propane and other fuels in bulk and reselling them to end customers, earning a margin between its commodity acquisition costs (plus storage/transportation costs) and the delivered selling price....

Suburban Propane Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive tone driven by strong operational resilience in the heating season, debt reduction of over $64 million, improving RNG production (+16% sequential, +12% YoY) and recognition of $3.5 million in production tax credits. Management highlighted disciplined capital allocation, on-schedule RNG projects adding ~200,000 MMBtus annually, and maintained distributions with 2.2x coverage. Offsetting risks include flat quarter-over-quarter EBITDA, high U.S. propane inventories (+75% YoY) and a 23% decline in average wholesale propane prices, warm western weather that drove ~10% lower volumes in that region, hedge mark-to-market volatility, and still-elevated leverage (4.34x). Overall, the positive operational execution, balance sheet improvement, and RNG momentum outweigh the noted headwinds.
Positive Updates
Solid Adjusted EBITDA and H1 Growth
Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $175.3 million (essentially flat YoY). Combined with Q1, adjusted EBITDA for the first half was $258.7 million, an increase of $8.4 million or 3.4% compared to the prior year first two quarters.
Negative Updates
Flat Quarter and Slight EPS Decline
Q2 adjusted EBITDA was flat YoY and adjusted net income per common unit was $2.09 versus $2.11 in the prior year second quarter (small decline in per-unit earnings).
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Negative
Solid Adjusted EBITDA and H1 Growth
Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $175.3 million (essentially flat YoY). Combined with Q1, adjusted EBITDA for the first half was $258.7 million, an increase of $8.4 million or 3.4% compared to the prior year first two quarters.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that its two RNG projects (Upstate New York digester and Columbus gas upgrade) remain on schedule for completion in the second half of fiscal 2026 and are expected to add roughly 200,000 MMBtus of annual RNG production, with PTC eligibility anticipated for the Upstate NY facility (the company recognized $3.5M of PTCs for Jan 2025–Mar 2026, including $2.0M catch‑up for FY2025 and $0.8M for Q1 FY2026); full‑year capital spending for the existing projects is estimated at $35–$40M (YTD RNG CapEx $19M; Q2 total CapEx $24.7M), and management reiterated a disciplined capital allocation strategy to use excess operating cash flow to pay down debt (repaid $64.3M in Q2, >$64M total), maintain ample revolver capacity, strengthen the balance sheet (trailing‑12‑month leverage improved to 4.34x from 4.54x), and support the $0.325 quarterly distribution (annualized $1.30, coverage 2.2x) while driving continued operational performance to sustain adjusted EBITDA (Q2 $175.3M; H1 $258.7M, +$8.4M or 3.4% Y/Y).

Suburban Propane Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cash flow strength (healthy free cash flow and solid operating cash flow) and improved balance sheet metrics support the score, alongside decent net profitability. Offsetting factors are slightly declining TTM revenue and data consistency concerns (notably negative TTM gross margin and a sharp step-change in reported debt versus history), which reduce confidence in trend stability.
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
BreakdownTTMSep 2025Sep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.39B1.43B1.33B1.43B1.50B1.29B
Gross Profit448.62M302.69M804.98M361.00M789.34M803.28M
EBITDA280.49M256.23M216.47M260.39M259.64M296.59M
Net Income133.35M106.57M74.17M123.75M139.71M122.79M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.43B2.30B2.27B2.27B2.10B2.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments4.29M3.71M3.22M3.51M4.10M5.81M
Total Debt1.36B1.33B1.35B1.33B1.21B1.25B
Total Liabilities1.68B1.70B1.73B1.72B1.61B1.63B
Stockholders Equity743.90M598.57M547.06M546.36M497.53M425.42M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow132.63M114.30M101.16M180.29M176.19M196.70M
Operating Cash Flow205.97M186.26M160.59M225.24M220.55M226.55M
Investing Cash Flow-96.96M-128.25M-81.64M-170.64M-94.44M-34.08M
Financing Cash Flow-109.70M-66.74M-72.50M-44.63M-127.82M-189.81M

Suburban Propane Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price18.56
Price Trends
50DMA
18.37
Positive
100DMA
18.99
Negative
200DMA
18.83
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.07
Negative
RSI
56.35
Neutral
STOCH
68.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.25, above the 50-day MA of 18.37, and below the 200-day MA of 18.83, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SPH.

Suburban Propane Risk Analysis

Suburban Propane disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Suburban Propane reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Suburban Propane Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$1.24B9.3320.40%7.00%-2.19%37.18%
67
Neutral
$3.19B23.139.49%2.05%17.14%15.65%
66
Neutral
$17.65B18.105.60%3.62%6.62%11.55%
65
Neutral
$7.74B12.1212.77%4.07%0.52%20.56%
63
Neutral
$4.87B17.458.20%3.35%2.81%7.01%
62
Neutral
$4.72B13.9910.45%3.95%4.53%40.51%
58
Neutral
$6.47B13.9311.86%2.69%-48.15%105.44%
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SPH
Suburban Propane
18.66
0.91
5.11%
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities
132.78
14.79
12.53%
SR
Spire
79.86
6.92
9.48%
SWX
Southwest Gas
89.40
12.05
15.58%
UGI
UGI
36.12
0.75
2.13%
OGS
ONE Gas
77.65
6.75
9.52%

Suburban Propane Corporate Events

DividendsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Suburban Propane Declares Quarterly Distribution for Unitholders
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
On July 23, 2026, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. announced that its Board of Supervisors declared a quarterly distribution of $0.325 per common unit for the fiscal third quarter ended June 27, 2026, equivalent to an annualized rate of $1.30 per c...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Suburban Propane Schedules Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Call
Neutral
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. announced it had scheduled its fiscal 2026 third quarter results conference call for Thursday, August 6, 2026 at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Analysts, investors and other interested parties were invite...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2026