Suburban Propane (SPH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.20B
• Dividend Yield: 6.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 125.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.35
• Revenue Growth: 6.29%
• EPS Growth: -1.67%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,098
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Regulated Gas
• EPS (TTM): -0.18
• Shares Outstanding: 65,473,320
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 206,846
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 125,863
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.54
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.40
• 1Y Price Target: $18.25
• Price Target Upside: -1.83% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.50 ▲(4.90% Upside)

Suburban Propane's overall stock score is driven by its stable financial performance and attractive valuation, particularly the high dividend yield. However, technical analysis indicates a lack of strong momentum, and the earnings call highlighted both strategic achievements and operational challenges. The company's focus on renewable energy and debt reduction is promising, but addressing revenue growth and operational issues is crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Acquisitions

The $53mn acquisition of a New Mexico and Arizona distributor is expected to improve gallons sold and EBITDA generation.

Market Index Performance

SPH benefited significantly from the recent Alerian index rebalancing, showing a 20% increase compared to a 10% increase for the broader AMZ index.

Weather Conditions

Colder temperatures are expected to improve results for the second quarter.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

SPH reported F4Q24 adj EBITDA results of $1mn that missed MSUSA ($5mn) and Street ($9mn) estimates.

Leverage Concerns

The weaker quarter raised leverage to 4.99x, which included higher debt on SPH's revolver to fund the acquisitions and other growth capex.

Valuation Concerns

The company maintains an Underweight rating due to valuation concerns, elevated leverage, and ongoing capital requirements for RNG projects.

Suburban Propane Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, fuel oil, and refined fuels. The company operates in four segments: Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels, Natural Gas and Electricity, and All Other. The Propane segment is involved in the retail distribution of propane to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers, as well as in the wholesale distribution to industrial end users. It offers propane primarily for space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying in the residential and commercial markets; for use as a motor fuel in internal combustion engines to power over-the-road vehicles, forklifts, and stationary engines, as well as to fire furnaces, as a cutting gas to the industrial customers, and in other process applications; and for tobacco curing, crop drying, poultry brooding, and weed control in the agricultural markets. The Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels segment engages in the retail distribution of fuel oil, diesel, kerosene, and gasoline to residential and commercial customers for use primarily as a source of heat in homes and buildings. The Natural Gas and Electricity segment markets natural gas and electricity to residential and commercial customers in the deregulated energy markets in New York and Pennsylvania. The All Other segment sells, installs, and services a range of home comfort equipment, including whole-house heating products, air cleaners, humidifiers, and space heaters. As of September 25, 2021, the company served approximately 1.0 million residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers through 700 locations in 41 states primarily in the east and west coast regions of the United States, as well as portions of the Midwest region of the United States and Alaska. Suburban Energy Services Group LLC serves as a general partner of Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Whippany, New Jersey.

How the Company Makes Money

Suburban Propane generates revenue primarily through the sale of propane and related services. The company earns money by delivering propane to residential and commercial customers, charging for both the fuel itself and the delivery service. Additionally, Suburban Propane offers propane tank installation and maintenance services, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company also benefits from contracts with various commercial clients, including agricultural businesses and industrial operations. Seasonal demand for propane, particularly during winter months for heating purposes, significantly affects revenue. Furthermore, strategic partnerships with suppliers and investments in renewable energy sources, such as propane from biofuels, may also enhance its earnings potential.

Suburban Propane Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Suburban Propane presents a stable financial position with strong operational cash flows and decent profitability margins. However, the company faces challenges with high leverage and a declining revenue trend. The focus on operational efficiency is a positive sign, but the company needs to address revenue growth to improve its financial outlook.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 4.35%, which is relatively low. The TTM net profit margin is around 7.19%, indicating moderate profitability. Revenue has shown a declining trend over the years, but the company managed to improve its EBIT and EBITDA margins in the TTM period to 18.27% and 22.25%, respectively, suggesting a focus on cost control and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a challenging position with a high debt-to-equity ratio calculated at approximately 0.25, indicating significant leverage. The equity ratio stands at roughly 22.85%, reflecting a moderate level of equity financing. The return on equity (ROE) for the TTM is about 12.68%, indicating decent returns for shareholders despite the high leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a solid performance with a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.63 for the TTM, indicating efficient cash generation from operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.59, highlighting effective capital expenditure management. However, free cash flow growth has been volatile, which could pose risks to future cash availability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.43B	1.33B	1.43B	1.50B	1.29B	1.11B
Gross Profit	722.73M	804.98M	361.00M	789.34M	803.28M	724.95M
EBITDA	246.15M	216.47M	260.39M	259.64M	296.59M	252.13M
Net Income	97.12M	74.17M	123.75M	139.71M	122.79M	60.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.31B	2.27B	2.27B	2.10B	2.05B	2.05B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.63M	3.22M	3.51M	4.10M	5.81M	3.14M
Total Debt	1.35B	1.35B	1.33B	1.21B	1.25B	1.33B
Total Liabilities	1.67B	1.73B	1.72B	1.61B	1.63B	1.68B
Stockholders Equity	646.11M	547.06M	546.36M	-12.60M	-17.58M	-25.78M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	104.32M	101.16M	180.29M	176.19M	196.70M	176.86M
Operating Cash Flow	181.21M	160.59M	225.24M	220.55M	226.55M	209.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-136.58M	-81.64M	-170.64M	-94.44M	-34.08M	-53.24M
Financing Cash Flow	-51.48M	-72.50M	-44.63M	-127.82M	-189.81M	-155.41M

Suburban Propane Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SPH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.23, above the 50-day MA of 18.17, and below the 200-day MA of 18.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SPH.

Suburban Propane Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CPK	74 Outperform	$2.94B	22.26	9.25%	2.09%	19.02%	20.13%
NWN	71 Outperform	$1.67B	16.13	7.36%	4.80%	8.40%	17.90%
RGCO	71 Outperform	$227.16M	16.62	12.11%	3.60%	12.04%	5.89%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.91B	18.75	8.12%	3.40%	7.32%	12.41%
SPH	64 Neutral	$1.20B	12.41	15.50%	6.99%	6.29%	-1.67%
NFE	53 Neutral	$655.33M	11.07	-28.26%	16.74%	-15.03%	-201.87%
CTRI	42 Neutral	$1.82B	2,080.95	-0.59%	―	―	―

Suburban Propane Corporate Events

Suburban Propane Announces Quarterly Distribution

On July 24, 2025, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. announced a quarterly distribution of $0.325 per Common Unit for the fiscal third quarter, equating to an annualized rate of $1.30 per Common Unit. The distribution is payable on August 12, 2025, to unitholders of record as of August 5, 2025. The announcement also highlighted that all distributions to foreign investors are subject to U.S. federal income tax withholding due to their connection with a U.S. trade or business. This decision reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors while complying with regulatory requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPH) stock is a Sell with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Suburban Propane stock, see the SPH Stock Forecast page.

Suburban Propane Schedules Q3 2025 Results Call

On July 23, 2025, Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. announced its Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Results Conference Call, scheduled for August 7, 2025. The call will discuss the company’s third-quarter results and business outlook, providing insights for analysts, investors, and stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SPH) stock is a Sell with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Suburban Propane stock, see the SPH Stock Forecast page.