Sable Offshore (SOC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.47B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 10.36M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 161
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
• EPS (TTM): -1.11
• Shares Outstanding: 144,961,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,731,695
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,360,378
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.32
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -7.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 48.59
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -2.46K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -3.51
• 1Y Price Target: $22.50
• Price Target Upside: 125.00% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.56
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $782.80M

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $10.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)

Overall score reflects weak financial fundamentals (ongoing operating losses and heavy cash burn, with net income quality concerns) as the primary drag. Technical momentum is supportive and recent PHMSA regulatory approvals are a meaningful positive catalyst, but negative/uncertain valuation signals (negative P/E and no dividend) and ongoing legal/regulatory overhangs keep the score near the lower-middle range.

Positive Factors

PHMSA approval for pipeline restart

Federal approval to restart the Las Flores pipeline materially restores a core transport route for produced oil. Over the medium term this reduces reliance on costly storage/tanker alternatives, enables consistent monetization of production, and supports scaled operations and revenue realization.

Interstate pipeline status recognition

Reclassification under PHMSA streamlines regulatory oversight and reduces state-to-state regulatory variance. That consistency lowers compliance uncertainty, simplifies restart governance and inspections, and supports more predictable, long-term operation and access to interstate markets.

Material reduction in leverage (zero reported debt)

Zero reported debt meaningfully reduces near-term solvency risk and interest burden, increasing financial flexibility to execute restarts or capex. With available equity capital the company can invest or endure temporary cash shortfalls without immediate debt service stress, aiding longer-term operational recovery.

Negative Factors

Large negative operating and free cash flow

Sustained cash burn indicates the business cannot self-fund operations or development. Over months this elevates refinancing, covenant and liquidity risk, forces external funding or asset sales, and constrains capital allocation to sustain production or complete redevelopment plans.

Weak operating profitability despite positive net income

Core operations lose money while reported net income relies on one-time or non-operating items. This earnings quality problem suggests underlying field economics and cost structure are weak, limiting sustainable profitability and making future earnings volatile and unreliable as a funding source.

Recent equity raise signals ongoing funding needs

A sizable private placement to satisfy loan amendment conditions underscores persistent external financing dependence. Structural reliance on equity/debt injections risks dilution, higher financing costs, and conditional covenants that may constrain strategy and operational decisions over the medium term.

Sable Offshore Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sable Offshore Corp. engages in the oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States. It operates through three platforms located offshore California and an onshore processing facility comprised of 16 federal leases across approximately 76,000 acres. The company was formerly known as Flame Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Sable Offshore Corp. in February 2024. Sable Offshore Corp. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Houston, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Sable Offshore Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial profile is volatile and low quality: TTM shows deeply negative operating profit (EBIT/EBITDA) and sharply negative operating/free cash flow, despite positive TTM net income that appears driven by non-operating or one-time items. Balance sheet leverage has improved to zero reported debt, but weak underlying profitability and cash burn keep overall financial performance below average.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is modest (~$19.0M) and profitability is mixed: gross profit is slightly negative and operating results are deeply loss-making (EBIT and EBITDA sharply negative), suggesting weak underlying economics and/or heavy costs. Net income is positive in TTM (~$171.2M), but the large gap versus operating losses points to meaningful non-operating or one-time items. Prior annual periods show continued losses and, in several years, no reported revenue, highlighting an unstable earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially: TTM shows zero total debt and a low reported debt-to-equity ratio, which reduces financial risk. Equity is sizable (~$348.1M) against a much larger asset base (~$1.65B), and TTM return on equity is strong, but it is inconsistent with weak operating profitability and contrasts with very negative return on equity in 2024—suggesting volatility and potential reliance on non-recurring drivers. Overall, the balance sheet looks better positioned today than in 2024, when debt was high (~$851.4M) and leverage was elevated.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key weakness: TTM operating cash flow is materially negative (~-$291.1M) and free cash flow is even more negative (~-$538.3M), indicating the business is consuming cash. While TTM free cash flow growth is positive versus the prior period, free cash flow remains deeply negative and does not support self-funding operations. Recent annual periods also show negative operating and free cash flow, reinforcing funding and execution risk.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	18.97M	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-375.00K	-13.43M	-21.02M	0.00	0.00	0.00
EBITDA	-262.54M	-548.37M	-72.66M	-6.15M	-1.68M	-1.66K
Net Income	171.24M	-629.07M	-93.67M	-2.59M	4.27M	-1.66K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.65B	1.58B	711.58M	290.91M	288.44M	304.22K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	41.63M	300.38M	0.00	100.26K	322.77K	9.01K
Total Debt	0.00	851.45M	14.18M	1.78M	956.12K	43.63K
Total Liabilities	1.30B	1.20B	372.56M	18.89M	13.88M	280.88K
Stockholders Equity	348.08M	384.19M	339.02M	272.02M	274.56M	23.34K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-538.25M	-259.38M	-3.84M	-1.71M	-2.01M	-540.00
Operating Cash Flow	-291.11M	-187.08M	-3.84M	-1.71M	-2.01M	-537.00
Investing Cash Flow	-376.61M	-276.25M	231.58M	786.92K	-287.50M	0.00
Financing Cash Flow	385.87M	745.76M	-227.56M	705.00K	289.82M	9.55K

Sable Offshore Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HP	73 Outperform	$3.37B	―	-5.87%	3.24%	35.89%	-148.39%
BORR	68 Neutral	$1.38B	15.29	7.08%	5.99%	5.83%	-11.86%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
SDRL	62 Neutral	$2.32B	77.43	1.18%	―	-9.31%	-91.57%
PTEN	58 Neutral	$2.78B	-21.39	-4.00%	5.42%	-16.59%	83.95%
RIG	57 Neutral	$5.36B	-1.51	-32.05%	―	16.93%	-335.82%
SOC	52 Neutral	$1.47B	-2.51	-141.26%	―	―	―

Sable Offshore Corporate Events

Sable Offshore Wins Emergency Permit for Santa Ynez Pipeline

On December 23, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. received an emergency special permit from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration for segments 324 and 325 of the interstate Santa Ynez Pipeline System, authorizing the company to operate those sections under enhanced integrity management practices and specified operational conditions. The approval marks a key regulatory milestone for Sable as it works to restore full transportation of hydrocarbons from the Santa Ynez Unit, which restarted production in May 2025 after a decade-long shutdown but has not yet sold commercial volumes, with oil currently being stored onshore at its Las Flores Canyon facility pending broader resumption of petroleum transportation.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Sable Offshore Wins PHMSA Approval for Pipeline Restart

On December 22, 2025, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) approved Sable Offshore Corp.’s Restart Plan for the Las Flores Pipeline System, covering Line CA-324 and Line CA-325, formerly known as Plains Line 901 and Line 903. The approval, which followed PHMSA’s review of Sable’s fill and startup procedures, requests to remove pressure restrictions, and a field inspection of restart safety processes, clears a key regulatory hurdle for bringing these pipelines back into service, with potential implications for Sable Offshore’s operational capacity, regional oil transport logistics, and its positioning within the regulated U.S. pipeline network.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Sable Offshore Gains Interstate Pipeline Status Approval

On December 17, 2025, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) officially recognized Sable Offshore Corp.’s determination that the Las Flores Pipeline is an interstate pipeline under the Pipeline Safety Act, granting PHMSA exclusive regulatory authority over its operations. This reclassification to an interstate pipeline status is expected to streamline regulations and shift oversight from the California Office of the State Fire Marshal to PHMSA, improving operational consistency across state and federal lines while maintaining the pipeline’s active status in compliance with PHMSA regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Sable Offshore Seeks PHMSA Oversight for Pipeline

On November 26, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. informed the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) that its pipeline connecting the Santa Ynez Unit to the Pentland Station terminal in Kern County, CA, qualifies as an interstate pipeline facility under the Pipeline Safety Act. The company is seeking PHMSA’s agreement and guidance on transitioning regulatory oversight from the California Office of the State Fire Marshal to PHMSA. This move is part of Sable Offshore’s dual option offtake strategy, which includes resuming petroleum transportation through its onshore pipeline facilities and utilizing offshore storage and treating vessels to access broader markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Sable Offshore Announces Major Management Reshuffle

On November 20, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. announced significant management changes, promoting J. Caldwell Flores to President and Chief Operating Officer, while Doss Bourgeois transitioned to Vice Chairman. Additional appointments included Trent Fontenot as Senior Vice President of Operations, Brian Broussard as Senior Vice President of Development, and Byron Olson as Vice President of Reservoir Engineering. These changes are expected to impact the company’s operational dynamics and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Sable Offshore Announces $250M Private Placement

On November 10, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. announced a private placement of $250 million in common stock to institutional investors, with the transaction expected to close on November 12, 2025. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes and to meet the equity contribution condition of a Senior Secured Term Loan amendment, with Jefferies and TD Cowen acting as joint placement agents.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Sable Offshore Amends Loan Agreement with Exxon Mobil

On November 3, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. announced an amendment to its Senior Secured Term Loan Agreement with Exxon Mobil, which will extend the loan’s maturity date and increase the interest rate, contingent on certain conditions being met. The company is also advancing its Offshore Storage and Treating Vessel strategy for the Santa Ynez Unit, expecting to resume oil sales by late 2026, which could lead to cost savings and improved market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.