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Sable Offshore (SOC)
NYSE:SOC
US Market

Sable Offshore (SOC) AI Stock Analysis

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SOC

Sable Offshore

(NYSE:SOC)

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Neutral 43 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-10.61% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/04/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—deep operating losses and heavy negative operating/free cash flow—despite improved leverage. Technicals also reflect a weak longer-term price trend. Positive pipeline regulatory approvals are a meaningful offset, but valuation lacks clear support due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Regulatory approvals (PHMSA)
Federal PHMSA approvals and an emergency special permit materially reduce regulatory barriers to restarting pipeline transport. This clears a structural obstacle to moving oil from the Santa Ynez Unit, improving long-term operational capacity and monetization pathways for produced hydrocarbons.
Improved leverage
Reported TTM total debt at zero materially lowers financial risk versus prior high leverage. A cleaner balance sheet increases flexibility to fund operations or capital programs, eases lender pressure, and improves resilience to commodity or operating volatility over the medium term.
Funding flexibility (ATM & placement)
An ATM program and recent $250M private placement create durable access to equity capital to fund the company’s planned offshore storage/treating vessel strategy and other capex. This structural financing optionality reduces immediate liquidity constraints for multi-quarter projects.
Negative Factors
Severe cash burn
Sable’s deeply negative operating and free cash flows demonstrate persistent cash consumption and inability to self-fund operations or growth. Over multiple quarters this raises funding dependency, elevates dilution or refinancing risk, and constrains sustained investment in production restart.
Weak operating profitability
Modest revenues paired with negative gross margins and large operating losses point to structurally weak unit economics. Positive net income is driven by non-operating items, so operating profitability remains unreliable and undermines durable free cash flow generation absent fundamental cost or production improvements.
Regulatory & legal exposure
Active subpoenas and ongoing legal challenges create lasting execution and reputational risk that can delay permits, increase compliance costs, and tighten financing terms. Combined with environmental litigation noted in filings, this elevates structural uncertainty for project timelines and costs.

Sable Offshore (SOC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Sable Offshore Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSable Offshore Corp. engages in the oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States. It operates through three platforms located offshore California and an onshore processing facility comprised of 16 federal leases across approximately 76,000 acres. The company was formerly known as Flame Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Sable Offshore Corp. in February 2024. Sable Offshore Corp. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Houston, Texas.
How the Company Makes Money

Sable Offshore Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Operating fundamentals are weak: modest TTM revenue (~$19.0M), negative gross profit, and sharply negative EBIT/EBITDA. Cash burn is severe with materially negative operating cash flow (~-$291.1M) and free cash flow (~-$538.3M). The balance sheet shows improved leverage (TTM total debt at zero), but the swing to positive TTM net income (~$171.2M) despite large operating losses suggests earnings quality and one-time/non-operating reliance.
Income Statement
34
Negative
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is modest (~$19.0M) and profitability is mixed: gross profit is slightly negative and operating results are deeply loss-making (EBIT and EBITDA sharply negative), suggesting weak underlying economics and/or heavy costs. Net income is positive in TTM (~$171.2M), but the large gap versus operating losses points to meaningful non-operating or one-time items. Prior annual periods show continued losses and, in several years, no reported revenue, highlighting an unstable earnings profile.
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Leverage has improved materially: TTM shows zero total debt and a low reported debt-to-equity ratio, which reduces financial risk. Equity is sizable (~$348.1M) against a much larger asset base (~$1.65B), and TTM return on equity is strong, but it is inconsistent with weak operating profitability and contrasts with very negative return on equity in 2024—suggesting volatility and potential reliance on non-recurring drivers. Overall, the balance sheet looks better positioned today than in 2024, when debt was high (~$851.4M) and leverage was elevated.
Cash Flow
24
Negative
Cash generation is a key weakness: TTM operating cash flow is materially negative (~-$291.1M) and free cash flow is even more negative (~-$538.3M), indicating the business is consuming cash. While TTM free cash flow growth is positive versus the prior period, free cash flow remains deeply negative and does not support self-funding operations. Recent annual periods also show negative operating and free cash flow, reinforcing funding and execution risk.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue18.97M0.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit-375.00K-13.43M-21.02M0.000.000.00
EBITDA-262.54M-548.37M-72.66M-6.15M-1.68M-1.66K
Net Income171.24M-629.07M-93.67M-2.59M4.27M-1.66K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.65B1.58B711.58M290.91M288.44M304.22K
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments41.63M300.38M0.00100.26K322.77K9.01K
Total Debt0.00851.45M14.18M1.78M956.12K43.63K
Total Liabilities1.30B1.20B372.56M18.89M13.88M280.88K
Stockholders Equity348.08M384.19M339.02M272.02M274.56M23.34K
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-538.25M-259.38M-3.84M-1.71M-2.01M-540.00
Operating Cash Flow-291.11M-187.08M-3.84M-1.71M-2.01M-537.00
Investing Cash Flow-376.61M-276.25M231.58M786.92K-287.50M0.00
Financing Cash Flow385.87M745.76M-227.56M705.00K289.82M9.55K

Sable Offshore Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$6.85B-1.95-31.70%16.93%-335.82%
67
Neutral
$1.77B33.704.33%5.99%5.83%-11.86%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
65
Neutral
$3.10B-34.84-2.80%5.42%-16.59%83.95%
62
Neutral
$2.72B89.531.18%-9.31%-91.57%
54
Neutral
$3.47B-11.29-11.41%3.24%35.89%-148.39%
43
Neutral
$1.25B-2.24-141.26%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SOC
Sable Offshore
8.95
-20.39
-69.50%
HP
Helmerich & Payne
35.63
9.18
34.69%
PTEN
Patterson-UTI
8.41
0.56
7.13%
RIG
Transocean
6.52
3.19
95.80%
BORR
Borr Drilling
5.95
3.07
106.60%
SDRL
Seadrill Limited
44.21
15.53
54.15%

Sable Offshore Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sable Offshore Announces Major At-the-Market Equity Program
Neutral
Feb 3, 2026

On February 2, 2026, Sable Offshore Corp. entered into a $250 million at-the-market equity sales agreement with TD Securities (USA) LLC and Jefferies LLC, allowing the company, at its discretion, to issue common stock over time under an existing shelf registration, with the agents earning up to a 3% commission and either party able to terminate the arrangement on 10 days’ notice. In parallel, the company detailed operational and strategic developments, including a planned Offshore Storage and Treating Vessel strategy announced on September 29, 2025 to bypass ongoing delays on the Santa Ynez Pipeline System by enabling shuttle-tanker access to domestic and global markets, an estimated $475 million capital program to implement this plan with targeted first vessel acquisition in the first quarter of 2026 and potential production of more than 50,000 barrels per day from the fourth quarter of 2026, a November 3, 2025 amendment to its senior secured term loan with Exxon that extends maturity to as late as March 31, 2027 while raising the interest rate to 15% and tightening liquidity covenants, and extensive repair, regulatory and litigation activity around resuming petroleum transportation through Santa Ynez Pipeline Segments 324 and 325, including pipeline repairs, safety upgrades, successful hydrotests in May 2025, subsequent federal oversight by PHMSA and approval of a restart plan and emergency special permit in December 2025, as well as ongoing legal challenges by environmental groups, all of which collectively shape the company’s financing needs, pathway to restoring and expanding production, and regulatory risk profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sable Offshore Wins Emergency Permit for Santa Ynez Pipeline
Positive
Dec 29, 2025

On December 23, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. received an emergency special permit from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration for segments 324 and 325 of the interstate Santa Ynez Pipeline System, authorizing the company to operate those sections under enhanced integrity management practices and specified operational conditions. The approval marks a key regulatory milestone for Sable as it works to restore full transportation of hydrocarbons from the Santa Ynez Unit, which restarted production in May 2025 after a decade-long shutdown but has not yet sold commercial volumes, with oil currently being stored onshore at its Las Flores Canyon facility pending broader resumption of petroleum transportation.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sable Offshore Wins PHMSA Approval for Pipeline Restart
Positive
Dec 23, 2025

On December 22, 2025, the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) approved Sable Offshore Corp.’s Restart Plan for the Las Flores Pipeline System, covering Line CA-324 and Line CA-325, formerly known as Plains Line 901 and Line 903. The approval, which followed PHMSA’s review of Sable’s fill and startup procedures, requests to remove pressure restrictions, and a field inspection of restart safety processes, clears a key regulatory hurdle for bringing these pipelines back into service, with potential implications for Sable Offshore’s operational capacity, regional oil transport logistics, and its positioning within the regulated U.S. pipeline network.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sable Offshore Gains Interstate Pipeline Status Approval
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

On December 17, 2025, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) officially recognized Sable Offshore Corp.’s determination that the Las Flores Pipeline is an interstate pipeline under the Pipeline Safety Act, granting PHMSA exclusive regulatory authority over its operations. This reclassification to an interstate pipeline status is expected to streamline regulations and shift oversight from the California Office of the State Fire Marshal to PHMSA, improving operational consistency across state and federal lines while maintaining the pipeline’s active status in compliance with PHMSA regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Sable Offshore Seeks PHMSA Oversight for Pipeline
Neutral
Dec 1, 2025

On November 26, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. informed the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) that its pipeline connecting the Santa Ynez Unit to the Pentland Station terminal in Kern County, CA, qualifies as an interstate pipeline facility under the Pipeline Safety Act. The company is seeking PHMSA’s agreement and guidance on transitioning regulatory oversight from the California Office of the State Fire Marshal to PHMSA. This move is part of Sable Offshore’s dual option offtake strategy, which includes resuming petroleum transportation through its onshore pipeline facilities and utilizing offshore storage and treating vessels to access broader markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Sable Offshore Announces Major Management Reshuffle
Neutral
Nov 26, 2025

On November 20, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. announced significant management changes, promoting J. Caldwell Flores to President and Chief Operating Officer, while Doss Bourgeois transitioned to Vice Chairman. Additional appointments included Trent Fontenot as Senior Vice President of Operations, Brian Broussard as Senior Vice President of Development, and Byron Olson as Vice President of Reservoir Engineering. These changes are expected to impact the company’s operational dynamics and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Sable Offshore Announces $250M Private Placement
Neutral
Nov 10, 2025

On November 10, 2025, Sable Offshore Corp. announced a private placement of $250 million in common stock to institutional investors, with the transaction expected to close on November 12, 2025. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes and to meet the equity contribution condition of a Senior Secured Term Loan amendment, with Jefferies and TD Cowen acting as joint placement agents.

The most recent analyst rating on (SOC) stock is a Buy with a $20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sable Offshore stock, see the SOC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 04, 2026