Star Gas Partners (SGU)
NYSE:SGU
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Star Gas Partners
(NYSE:SGU)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▲(16.18% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening cash flow and margin compression despite improved earnings and a healthier leverage profile. Technicals are moderately supportive and valuation is very attractive (low P/E and strong yield), while the earnings call and recent dividend/buyback actions add incremental support but do not fully offset cash-conversion and cost-pressure risks.
Positive Factors
Customer Retention / Recurring Demand
Very low customer attrition indicates a sticky residential/commercial base and recurring delivery relationships. High retention stabilizes volume forecasts across seasons, lowers acquisition costs, and supports predictable revenue and service income over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion / FCF Decline
Severe decline in free cash flow and weak cash conversion versus earnings reduces internal funding for capex, acquisitions, or distributions. Persistent low OCF relative to reported earnings raises sustainability concerns and increases sensitivity to working capital and commodity timing shifts.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Customer Retention / Recurring Demand
Very low customer attrition indicates a sticky residential/commercial base and recurring delivery relationships. High retention stabilizes volume forecasts across seasons, lowers acquisition costs, and supports predictable revenue and service income over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Star Gas Partners (SGU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$418.96M
Dividend Yield6.14%
Average Volume (3M)22.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.9
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth3.12%
EPS Growth41.70%
CountryUS
Employees3,039
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.05
Shares Outstanding32,833,935
10 Day Avg. Volume16,027
30 Day Avg. Volume22,897
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)1.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.23
P/FCF Ratio7.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda4.73
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Star Gas Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Star Group, L.P. sells home heating and air conditioning products and services to residential and commercial home heating oil and propane customers in the United States. It also sells diesel fuel, gasoline, and home heating oil on a delivery only ...
How the Company Makes Money
Star Gas Partners primarily makes money by selling propane to end customers and charging for delivery and related services. Its core revenue stream is retail propane sales, where revenue is generally a function of (1) gallons delivered and (2) the...
Star Gas Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call was cautiously positive: the company delivered stronger profitability and volume growth (higher adjusted EBITDA, product gross profit and net income) and maintained low customer attrition despite materially adverse weather. However, severe weather materially increased service, delivery, insurance and other operating expenses and produced weather‑related hedge and tax headwinds that moderated the net impact.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement (Q2)
Adjusted EBITDA of $139.0 million in Q2, a year‑over‑year increase of $10.5 million, driven by higher per‑gallon margins and slightly higher volumes.
Negative Updates
Severe Weather Increased Operating Costs
Extreme weather (Q2 temps 6.4% colder vs. prior year and 2.8% colder vs. normal; fiscal YTD 11% colder vs. prior year and 4.1% colder vs. normal; localized periods ~25% colder and >60 inches of snow) depressed field productivity and raised operating expenses across service, delivery and claims.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement (Q2)
Adjusted EBITDA of $139.0 million in Q2, a year‑over‑year increase of $10.5 million, driven by higher per‑gallon margins and slightly higher volumes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company offered limited forward guidance, saying it is “well positioned” for the remainder of fiscal 2026, plans to invest in people and business development over the summer, and has put a $12.5 million weather hedge in place for fiscal 2027; for context, Q2 adjusted EBITDA was $139 million (up $10.5 million YoY), Q2 net income was $108 million (up $22 million YoY), Q2 product gross profit was $277 million (up $19 million or 7%), and Q2 home heating oil and propane volumes were 144.5 million gallons (up 600,000 gallons), while fiscal year‑to‑date volumes were 238 million gallons (up 12 million or 5.3%) with YTD adjusted EBITDA of $207 million (up $27 million) and YTD product gross profit of $457 million (up $48 million or 12%); the company noted unusually cold weather (Q2 temperatures 6.4% colder vs. prior year and 2.8% colder vs. normal; fiscal YTD 11% colder vs. prior year and 4.1% colder vs. normal), net customer attrition of 0.6%, higher service losses (+$3.4M Q2, +$6.1M YTD), delivery/branch/G&A increases (+$5.4M Q2, ~+$16M YTD, including ~$1.9M from weather hedging), a $0 weather‑hedge result in Q2 versus a $3.1M expense in prior‑year Q2 (and a ~$5M cap expense in Q1), and that it closed one small heating‑oil acquisition with additional opportunities under review.Star Gas Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.86B | 1.78B | 1.77B | 1.95B | 2.01B | 1.50B |
| Gross Profit | 573.54M | 527.51M | 470.33M | 438.40M | 451.63M | 444.17M |
| EBITDA | 162.44M | 153.65M | 92.60M | 94.89M | 93.05M | 163.69M |
| Net Income | 104.81M | 63.14M | 32.10M | 29.34M | 35.29M | 87.74M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.16B | 937.33M | 939.61M | 875.48M | 912.48M | 853.86M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.19M | 24.68M | 117.33M | 45.19M | 14.62M | 4.77M |
| Total Debt | 361.65M | 285.26M | 283.56M | 243.75M | 351.97M | 285.49M |
| Total Liabilities | 740.76M | 640.55M | 675.72M | 611.75M | 654.56M | 575.66M |
| Stockholders Equity | 429.47M | 303.38M | 269.61M | 268.34M | -15.61M | -14.04M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 9.71M | 56.03M | 100.33M | 114.65M | 15.21M | 53.79M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 25.83M | 70.95M | 110.98M | 123.66M | 33.91M | 68.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.27M | -99.85M | -61.19M | -28.20M | -32.63M | -50.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -8.88M | -63.75M | 22.35M | -64.89M | 8.57M | -70.69M |
Star Gas Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
12.05
Price Trends
12.55
Positive
12.51
Positive
11.91
Positive
Market Momentum
0.05
Positive
51.08
Neutral
38.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SGU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.81, below the 50-day MA of 12.55, and above the 200-day MA of 11.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SGU.
Star Gas Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $13.61B | 10.17 | 17.28% | 6.88% | 37.27% | -29.09% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $418.96M | 3.94 | 29.84% | 6.14% | 3.12% | 41.70% | |
59 Neutral | $842.07M | 14.50 | -85.35% | 10.09% | -9.39% | 87.18% | |
57 Neutral | $1.46B | -2.63 | -39.63% | 3.30% | -8.84% | -4366.97% | |
52 Neutral | $455.86M | -4.51 | -17.35% | ― | 4.99% | 49.26% | |
48 Neutral | $185.06M | -2.30 | 24.28% | ― | -7.64% | 36.26% |
* Energy Sector Average
SGU
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11.54%
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Star Gas Partners Corporate Events
Dividends
Star Group Extends Streak With Higher Quarterly Distribution
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
On April 16, 2026, Star Group, L.P. announced it had raised its quarterly distribution for the fiscal second quarter ended March 31, 2026 to $0.1975 per common unit from $0.1850, lifting the annual payout by $0.05 to $0.79 per unit. The move, whic...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Star Gas Partners Expands Common Unit Repurchase Authorization
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
On February 10, 2026, the board of directors of the general partner of Star Group, L.P. authorized an increase in the number of common units the company may repurchase in open-market transactions to a total of 2.0 million units, effective February...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.