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Aemetis (AMTX)
NASDAQ:AMTX
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Aemetis
(NASDAQ:AMTX)
Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(4.60% Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Growth Plan
Aemetis has a strong 5-year financial plan aiming to reach $1 billion in revenue by 2026, indicating confidence in significant growth potential.
Investment Approval
Approval for $200 million of EB-5 program investment for multiple sustainable projects, including the Riverbank SAF production plant and the dairy RNG project, supports future growth prospects.
Project Development
The company is making good progress on its key biogas and cellulosic ethanol production facility projects, indicating positive development in their operations.
Negative Factors
Revenue Miss
Aemetis reported its fiscal Q4 2024 revenue at $47 million, which was significantly lower than the previous year and below both analyst estimates and consensus expectations.
Revenue Performance
Q1 revenue was $43 million, compared to estimates of $50 million and consensus of $59 million, indicating weaker than expected performance.
Aemetis (AMTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$151.15M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)699.63K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.50
Revenue Growth-19.77%
EPS Growth-47.88%
CountryUS
Employees223
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength66
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.41
Shares Outstanding63,240,955
10 Day Avg. Volume500,616
30 Day Avg. Volume699,627
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)N/A
P/FCF RatioN/A
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.10
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-93.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-14.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.00Price Target Upside276.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company in North America and India. It operates through three segments: California Ethanol, Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel. The company focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of negative carbon intensity products and technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products. It sells biodiesel primarily to government oil marketing companies, transport companies, resellers, distributors, and private refiners through its own sales force and independent sales agents, as well as to brokers who resell the product to end-users. The company also produces and sells ethanol; and wet distillers grains, distillers corn oil, and condensed distillers solubles to dairies and feedlots as animal feed. In addition, it produces dairy biogas; produces and sells high-grade alcohol and various feed products, as well as hand sanitizers; and researches and develops conversion technologies using waste feedstocks to produce biofuels and biochemicals. The company was formerly known as AE Biofuels, Inc. and changed its name to Aemetis, Inc. in November 2011. Aemetis, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAemetis generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its renewable fuels and chemicals to various markets. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel, which are sold to fuel distributors and other end-users. Additionally, Aemetis has entered into partnerships and agreements that enhance its production capabilities and expand its market reach, including collaborations with agricultural producers and other companies within the renewable energy sector. The company also benefits from government incentives and subsidies aimed at promoting renewable energy sources, which can contribute significantly to its profitability. Furthermore, Aemetis is involved in carbon capture and sequestration projects, which may provide additional revenue opportunities through carbon credits and environmental credits.
Aemetis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive developments such as increased revenues, improved operating loss, and strategic expansions in various segments. However, challenges remain with increased interest expenses, reported net losses, and uncertainties in revenue recognition for tax credits. Overall, the company's efforts to enhance its operational efficiency and strategic positioning indicate a promising outlook, though financial hurdles continue to pose risks.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Revenues
Revenues were $52.2 million, up by $9.3 million from the first quarter, primarily due to biodiesel orders in India.
Improvement in Operating Loss
Operating loss improved by $4.9 million from the first quarter of 2025, reflecting reduced SG&A expenses.
Dairy Renewable Natural Gas Expansion
The company is scaling up gas production with a new digester increasing RNG production by 30%. CARB-approved pathways for 7 dairies increased LCFS credit revenue by 120%.
Investment in Carbon Intensity Reduction
$3.6 million invested in carbon intensity reduction and dairy renewable natural gas production expansion.
E15 Ethanol Blend Expansion
Ethanol pricing improved with EPA approval for summer E15 blending and lower corn prices. California legislation for year-round E15 passed the assembly unanimously.
LCFS Credit Price Increase
LCFS credit prices rose from $42 to about $60, with the current cap at $268 for 2025.
Progress on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Project
Received authority to construct permits for a 90 million gallon per year SAF facility in California.
Negative Updates
Interest Expense Increase
Interest expense, excluding Series A preferred unit accretion, rose to $12.3 million.
Net Loss Reported
Net loss of $23.4 million was reported, roughly flat versus Q2 last year.
Cash Position
Cash at year-end was only $1.6 million.
Delay in Revenue Recognition for Tax Credits
Section 45Z tax credit revenue from dairy RNG production was not included in Q2 as revenue is recognized when credits are sold.
Uncertainties in Regulatory Approvals
Pending approvals for additional LCFS pathways and Section 45Z tax credits are necessary for future revenue.
Company Guidance
During the Aemetis Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided detailed guidance and metrics highlighting their financial and operational performance. Aemetis reported revenues of $52.2 million, an increase of $9.3 million from the previous quarter, primarily due to fulfilling biodiesel orders in India. California Ethanol production was slightly down at 13.8 million gallons, while the California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) segment generated $3.1 million from 11 operating digesters. An operating loss improvement of $4.9 million was noted, and interest expense reached $12.3 million. The net loss was $23.4 million, consistent with the previous year after adjustments. Cash at year-end was $1.6 million following investments in carbon reduction and RNG expansion. The company anticipated increased revenue streams from India, LCFS credits, and federal tax incentives, with expectations for improved cash flow and debt reduction. Additionally, Aemetis projected a 30% increase in RNG production with a new digester, aiming for a capacity of 550,000 MMBtus this year and one million by 2026. The company also highlighted future projects, including a $30 million mechanical vapor recompression system for their ethanol plant, expected to add $32 million in annual cash flow by 2026.Aemetis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Aemetis is facing significant financial challenges across all verticals. The company is struggling with profitability, high leverage, and negative cash flows. Immediate strategic adjustments are necessary to improve the financial health and ensure long-term sustainability.Income Statement
Aemetis has faced significant challenges in profitability and revenue growth. The TTM gross profit margin remains negative, indicating struggles with cost management. There is a notable negative trend in net profit margin and EBIT margin, highlighting ongoing losses. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with recent periods showing a decline.15
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a high debt burden with negative stockholders' equity, reflecting financial instability and potential solvency concerns. The debt-to-equity ratio is unfavorable due to negative equity, and the equity ratio is negative, demonstrating an over-leveraged position.12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow metrics indicate severe challenges in generating positive cash flow. The TTM operating cash flow is negative, and free cash flow remains negative, highlighting liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, suggesting poor cash conversion.20
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 223.57M | 267.64M | 186.72M | 256.51M | 211.95M | 165.56M |
| Gross Profit | -6.60M | -580.00K | 2.02M | -5.54M | 7.94M | 11.03M |
| EBITDA | -42.88M | -37.13M | -34.84M | -62.17M | -15.82M | -5.08M |
| Net Income | -82.06M | -87.54M | -46.42M | -107.76M | -47.15M | -36.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 240.02M | 259.30M | 243.41M | 207.11M | 160.83M | 125.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.65M | 898.00K | 2.67M | 4.31M | 7.75M | 592.00K |
| Total Debt | 478.58M | 338.06M | 417.34M | 248.43M | 22.78M | 59.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 529.27M | 523.23M | 460.38M | 408.97M | 281.07M | 309.88M |
| Stockholders Equity | -289.25M | -263.93M | -216.98M | -201.85M | -120.24M | -184.74M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -39.76M | -53.18M | -19.29M | -62.02M | -47.30M | -16.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -23.13M | -32.93M | 13.82M | -22.87M | -20.65M | 2.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.15M | -14.15M | -23.69M | -31.31M | -22.89M | -17.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 37.14M | 44.62M | 9.09M | 53.63M | 50.70M | 14.78M |
Aemetis Technical Analysis
Negative
2.39
Price Trends
2.76
Negative
2.21
Positive
2.34
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
41.10
Neutral
10.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.56, below the 50-day MA of 2.76, and above the 200-day MA of 2.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMTX.
Aemetis Risk Analysis
Aemetis disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aemetis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aemetis Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $9.56B | 35.13 | -0.93% | 3.91% | -14.58% | -107.50% | |
62 Neutral | $10.36B | 6.35 | 0.80% | 2.84% | 3.10% | -36.03% | |
60 Neutral | $546.03M | ― | -30.98% | ― | 4.92% | -156.72% | |
55 Neutral | $3.16B | 268.82 | -50.65% | 8.95% | -15.98% | -160.88% | |
52 Neutral | $1.72B | 3.02 | -1.59% | ― | -13.09% | -103.24% | |
51 Neutral | $1.88B | ― | -200.75% | 3.26% | -29.94% | -723.41% | |
42 Neutral | $151.15M | ― | 37.38% | ― | -19.77% | -47.88% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AMTX
Aemetis
2.39
0.12
5.29%
CLNE
Clean Energy Fuels
2.49
-0.13
-4.96%
CVI
CVR Energy
31.43
9.05
40.44%
DK
Delek US Holdings
31.32
13.64
77.15%
DINO
HF Sinclair Corporation
51.10
7.80
18.01%
PARR
Par Pacific Holdings
33.88
15.19
81.27%
Aemetis Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Aemetis Announces Director Elections and Key Approvals
Neutral
May 16, 2025
At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2025, Aemetis, Inc. announced the election of Eric A. McAfee and Francis P. Barton as Class I directors, who will serve until the 2028 annual meeting. Additionally, the appointment of RSM US LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified, and the compensation of the Company’s Named Executive Officers was approved on an advisory basis with 83% support.
The most recent analyst rating on (AMTX) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aemetis stock, see the AMTX Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.