Aemetis Inc (AMTX)
NASDAQ:AMTX
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Aemetis
(NASDAQ:AMTX)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$3.50
▲(7.69% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/26/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak financial performance (large losses, negative equity, and negative free cash flow). Technicals are a partial offset with strong momentum, though overbought indicators raise downside risk. Earnings-call guidance is moderately supportive due to financed 2026 projects and RNG growth, but policy timing and funding/capex needs remain material. Corporate events add incremental risk due to potentially expensive secured financing terms despite the buyback authorization.
Positive Factors
Dairy RNG profitability
The dairy RNG business is a profitable, fast‑growing cash generator with 12 operating digesters and strong YoY production gains. Contracted expansions and targeted 20‑year financings make RNG a structurally durable EBITDA contributor that can diversify revenue away from volatile ethanol markets.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholders' equity
A materially negative equity position and high debt relative to assets indicate severe capital structure stress. This reduces financial flexibility, raises solvency and covenant risks, and increases the likelihood of dilutive or expensive recapitalization that can constrain strategic options over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Dairy RNG profitability
The dairy RNG business is a profitable, fast‑growing cash generator with 12 operating digesters and strong YoY production gains. Contracted expansions and targeted 20‑year financings make RNG a structurally durable EBITDA contributor that can diversify revenue away from volatile ethanol markets.
Read all positive factors
Aemetis (AMTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$216.55M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.70
Revenue Growth-30.91%
EPS Growth29.09%
CountryUS
Employees223
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding66,631,850
10 Day Avg. Volume2,750,427
30 Day Avg. Volume1,241,589
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)-0.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio-4.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-689.92
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-19.17
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.00Price Target Upside761.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.02
Revenue Forecast (FY)$341.62M
Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company in North America and India. It operates through three segments: California Ethanol, Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel. The company focuses on the acquisit...
How the Company Makes Money
Aemetis primarily makes money by producing and selling renewable fuels and related co-products from its operating facilities. A key revenue stream is the sale of ethanol (a biofuel blended into gasoline) into domestic and export markets, typically...
Aemetis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally constructive operational and financial picture driven by a profitable and fast-growing dairy RNG segment, strong Q4 margin improvements, fully financed critical capital projects (MVR and H2S units), and favorable policy tailwinds (LCFS and 45Z). Offsetting these positives are a meaningful full-year revenue decline, continued large net losses, significant remaining capex needs, and dependence on regulatory timing (DOE GREET/CEVL) and India policy stability to fully realize expected benefits. Overall, management communicated confidence in near-term projects and financing but acknowledged execution and timing risks tied to policy implementation and market dynamics.Positive Updates
Quarterly Financial Improvement (Q4 2025)
Revenue plus tax credits rose to $53.7M in the quarter from $47.0M a year earlier (+14.3%). Quarterly gross profit improved to $7.7M from a gross loss of $2.0M. Operating loss narrowed to $2.5M (an ~81.5% reduction vs. $13.5M prior year) and net loss improved to $5.3M (a ~67.3% reduction vs. $16.2M prior year).
Negative Updates
Full-Year Revenue Decline
Total revenue plus tax credits for full-year 2025 fell to $208M from $268M in 2024, a decline of ~22.4%, reflecting lower overall top-line year-over-year despite Q4 improvements.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly Financial Improvement (Q4 2025)
Revenue plus tax credits rose to $53.7M in the quarter from $47.0M a year earlier (+14.3%). Quarterly gross profit improved to $7.7M from a gross loss of $2.0M. Operating loss narrowed to $2.5M (an ~81.5% reduction vs. $13.5M prior year) and net loss improved to $5.3M (a ~67.3% reduction vs. $16.2M prior year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call centered on near‑term scaling and monetization of clean‑fuel incentives: Aemetis expects mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) at the Keyes ethanol plant (≈65 million gallon capacity) to be completed in 2026 (targeting benefit in Q3, full impact in Q4); the MVR is a ≈$40 million project (already >50% spent, fully financed) and is expected to cut natural gas use by ~80% and increase plant cash flow by roughly $32 million per year (management said this equates to an incremental ~$3–4 million per month from 45Z+MVR). RNG/dairy guidance calls for growth in 2026 after producing ~405,000 MMBtu in 2025 from 12 digesters (Q4 production up 61% YoY and biogas segment net income $12.2 million in 2025); equipment is contracted for H2S cleanup and compression on 15 digesters (a $27 million contract) with a further ≈$70 million build‑out overlapping into 2027 that will double the number of operating dairies, and these builds are being financed with additional 20‑year financings. Management expects materially higher cash flow and profitability in 2026 driven by greater 45Z production tax credit monetization (Q4 PTCs were $10.3 million; ~$5 million of 45Z monetized late Q4), stronger LCFS values (LCFS rose from ~$40 to ~$70 in nine months, with $100–$150 cited as possible), and completion of refinancing; for context FY‑2025 revenue plus tax credits was $208 million (Q4 $53.7M) versus $268M in 2024, Keyes revenue was $158M in 2025, and India operations generated $29.7M (India capacity: ~80M gallons biodiesel, ~8M gallons glycerin).Aemetis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
8
Very Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 207.98M | 267.64M | 186.72M | 256.51M | 211.95M |
| Gross Profit | -768.00K | -580.00K | 2.02M | -5.54M | 7.94M |
| EBITDA | -27.64M | -49.82M | -34.84M | -79.72M | -21.64M |
| Net Income | -77.00M | -87.54M | -46.42M | -107.76M | -47.15M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 259.84M | 259.30M | 243.41M | 207.11M | 160.83M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.89M | 898.00K | 2.67M | 4.31M | 7.75M |
| Total Debt | 317.87M | 338.06M | 296.91M | 248.77M | 191.34M |
| Total Liabilities | 566.67M | 523.23M | 460.38M | 408.97M | 281.07M |
| Stockholders Equity | -306.83M | -263.93M | -216.98M | -201.85M | -120.24M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -22.74M | -53.18M | -19.29M | -62.02M | -47.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.26M | -32.93M | 13.82M | -22.87M | -20.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -25.59M | -14.15M | -23.69M | -31.31M | -22.89M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 26.41M | 44.62M | 9.09M | 53.63M | 50.70M |
Aemetis Technical Analysis
Positive
3.25
Price Trends
1.74
Positive
1.70
Positive
2.14
Positive
Market Momentum
0.38
Negative
83.73
Negative
90.03
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.03, above the 50-day MA of 1.74, and above the 200-day MA of 2.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 83.73 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMTX.
Aemetis Risk Analysis
Aemetis disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aemetis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aemetis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $13.42B | 13.57 | 7.27% | 6.88% | -5.18% | -33.14% | |
67 Neutral | $413.62M | 2.76 | 19.81% | 6.14% | 1.04% | 111.69% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
57 Neutral | $5.77B | -19.51 | -3.05% | 4.14% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
55 Neutral | $506.89M | -2.09 | -38.08% | ― | 2.59% | -192.73% | |
50 Neutral | $216.55M | ― | 26.07% | ― | -30.91% | 29.09% | |
49 Neutral | $826.39M | 19.25 | -67.36% | 10.09% | -10.27% | 131.17% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AMTX
Aemetis
3.25
1.29
65.82%
CLNE
Clean Energy Fuels
2.31
0.57
32.76%
SGU
Star Gas Partners
12.58
0.23
1.85%
PBF
PBF Energy
49.35
30.76
165.41%
SUN
Sunoco
65.50
10.70
19.53%
CAPL
Crossamerica Partners
21.67
-0.35
-1.61%
Aemetis Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Aemetis Expands Authorized Shares to Bolster Capital Flexibility
Neutral
Feb 19, 2026
On February 18, 2026, Aemetis filed an amendment to its Certificate of Incorporation in Delaware to increase its total authorized capital stock from 145 million to 205 million shares, reflecting a boost in authorized common stock from 80 million t...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Aemetis Amends Biogas Preferred Units Redemption Agreement
Negative
Feb 6, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Aemetis Biogas LLC, a subsidiary of Aemetis, Inc., agreed with Protair-X Technologies and Third Eye Capital to amend its Series A Preferred Unit Purchase Agreement, retroactive to December 31, 2025, extending the deadline to r...
Executive/Board ChangesStock BuybackShareholder Meetings
Aemetis Authorizes Major Share Repurchase and Executive Bonuses
Positive
Jan 28, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Aemetis’ board committee approved an annual $350,000 guarantee fee to McAfee Capital LLC, wholly owned by Chairman and CEO Eric A. McAfee, as compensation for personal guarantees backing certain of the company’s cr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.