Aemetis (AMTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $169.43M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.37
• Revenue Growth: -7.51%
• EPS Growth: -67.44%
• Country: US
• Employees: 223
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 54
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.47
• Shares Outstanding: 55,369,358
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,467,177
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,099,802
• PEG Ratio: -0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.68
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.04
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -7.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.22
• 1Y Price Target: $11.50
• Price Target Upside: 275.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▼(-18.30%Downside)

Aemetis faces significant financial challenges, which heavily impact its overall stock score. However, strong technical momentum and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call provide some optimism. The valuation remains a concern due to ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Financial Growth Plans

Aemetis has a strong 5-year financial plan aiming to reach $1 billion in revenue by 2026, indicating confidence in significant growth potential.

Investment and Funding

Approval for $200 million of EB-5 program investment for multiple sustainable projects, including the Riverbank SAF production plant and the dairy RNG project.

Market Opportunities

The company is getting closer to monetizing its India biodiesel business via an IPO, which could materially improve the company's balance sheet profile.

Negative Factors

Fiscal Year Results

Aemetis reported its fiscal Q4 2024 revenue at $47 million, which was significantly lower than the previous year and below both analyst estimates and consensus expectations.

Regulatory and Policy Challenges

Realizing Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) 45Z Production Tax Credits (PTC) in 2025 is partly dependent on the IRS releasing the calculation guideline for RNG, with limited clarity on the timeline.

Revenue Performance

Q1 revenue was $43 million, compared to estimates of $50 million and consensus of $59 million, indicating weaker than expected performance.

Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) is a renewable fuels and biochemical company focused on the production and commercialization of sustainable products that replace traditional petroleum-based fuels and chemicals. Operating in the biofuels and renewable energy sectors, Aemetis is engaged in producing ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable jet and diesel fuels, along with biogas and high-value chemicals derived from renewable resources. The company's core products are aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting cleaner energy alternatives to address global environmental challenges.

How the Company Makes Money

Aemetis generates revenue primarily through the sale of renewable fuels and biochemicals. The company's key revenue streams include the production and sale of ethanol at its California-based biofuel plant, which contributes significantly to its earnings. Additionally, Aemetis sells biodiesel and renewable jet fuel produced at its facilities in India and the United States. Revenue is further bolstered by the company's focus on carbon reduction initiatives, including the production of dairy biogas, which is sold as renewable natural gas under California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Strategic partnerships and government incentives for renewable energy projects also play a crucial role in supporting Aemetis's revenue model, providing both financial support and market access for their sustainable products.

Aemetis Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aemetis faces significant financial challenges, including negative profitability, high leverage, and negative cash flows. The balance sheet indicates financial instability with a high debt burden and negative stockholders' equity.

Income Statement

Aemetis has faced significant challenges in profitability and revenue growth. The TTM gross profit margin remains negative, indicating struggles with cost management. There is a notable negative trend in net profit margin and EBIT margin, highlighting ongoing losses. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with recent periods showing a decline.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt burden with negative stockholders' equity, reflecting financial instability and potential solvency concerns. The debt-to-equity ratio is unfavorable due to negative equity, and the equity ratio is negative, demonstrating an over-leveraged position.

Cash Flow

Cash flow metrics indicate severe challenges in generating positive cash flow. The TTM operating cash flow is negative, and free cash flow remains negative, highlighting liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, suggesting poor cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	237.89M	267.64M	186.72M	256.51M	211.95M	165.56M
Gross Profit	-5.05M	-580.00K	2.02M	-5.54M	7.94M	11.03M
EBITDA	-49.44M	-37.13M	-34.84M	-62.17M	-15.82M	-5.08M
Net Income	-87.83M	-87.54M	-46.42M	-107.76M	-47.15M	-36.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	242.52M	259.30M	243.41M	207.11M	160.83M	125.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	499.00K	898.00K	2.67M	4.31M	7.75M	592.00K
Total Debt	238.72M	338.06M	417.34M	248.43M	22.78M	59.52M
Total Liabilities	348.61M	523.23M	460.38M	408.97M	281.07M	309.88M
Stockholders Equity	-106.09M	-263.93M	-216.98M	-201.85M	-120.24M	-184.74M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-40.99M	-53.18M	-19.29M	-62.02M	-47.30M	-16.86M
Operating Cash Flow	-22.49M	-32.93M	13.82M	-22.87M	-20.65M	2.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-14.29M	-14.15M	-23.69M	-31.31M	-22.89M	-17.31M
Financing Cash Flow	35.27M	44.62M	9.09M	53.63M	50.70M	14.78M

Aemetis Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.06
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.21, above the 50-day MA of 1.80, and above the 200-day MA of 2.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 81.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.21 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMTX.

Aemetis Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PARR	68 Neutral	$1.62B	3.02	-4.95%	―	-9.25%	-113.66%
DINO	66 Neutral	$8.32B	35.13	-1.49%	4.59%	-11.17%	-109.60%
CLNE	60 Neutral	$475.11M	―	-30.25%	―	6.50%	-151.25%
CVI	54 Neutral	$2.97B	268.82	-27.14%	15.30%	-16.21%	-130.18%
Sector *	52 Neutral	C$2.91B	-1.09	-3.26%	6.12%	5.32%	-43.41%
AMTX	51 Neutral	$169.43M	―	37.38%	―	-7.51%	-67.44%
DK	51 Neutral	$1.40B	―	-151.69%	4.41%	-29.23%	-931.43%

Aemetis Corporate Events

Aemetis Announces Director Elections and Key Approvals

At its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on May 14, 2025, Aemetis, Inc. announced the election of Eric A. McAfee and Francis P. Barton as Class I directors, who will serve until the 2028 annual meeting. Additionally, the appointment of RSM US LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025 was ratified, and the compensation of the Company’s Named Executive Officers was approved on an advisory basis with 83% support.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMTX) stock is a Buy with a $28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aemetis stock, see the AMTX Stock Forecast page.