Aemetis (AMTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $94.00M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 864.99K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.43
• Revenue Growth: -30.91%
• EPS Growth: 29.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 223
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 66,200,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 397,395
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 864,987
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 3.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -35.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.83
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.62
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $435.90M

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-49.49% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/30/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/30/26

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (losses, negative cash flow, and leverage/negative equity). Technicals and the earnings-call outlook are moderately supportive due to improving near-term momentum and operational/regulatory catalysts, but valuation lacks high-quality support given ongoing losses, and the recent buyback is partially offset by governance optics.

Positive Factors

Diversified revenue streams

Aemetis generates cash from multiple, structurally different businesses—California ethanol, dairy renewable natural gas, India biodiesel and LCFS credits. This multi-channel model reduces single-market dependency, smooths cash flows across cycles, and supports durable growth as regulatory support persists.

MVR energy-efficiency project

The permitted mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) upgrade materially lowers energy consumption and is forecast to add ~$32M of annual cash flow from mid-2026. This is a structural margin improvement that sustainably lowers operating costs and enhances plant competitiveness and refinancing prospects.

Tax credit monetization capability

Aemetis has demonstrated an ability to convert investment and production tax credits into near-term cash proceeds, bolstering liquidity without equity dilution. Reliable monetization of incentives provides a durable non-operating cash channel to fund projects, service debt and bridge to higher operating cash flow.

Negative Factors

Declining revenue and negative margins

Sustained revenue decline and deeply negative margins point to weak unit economics and operational inefficiency. Over months this erodes retained capital, makes reinvestment harder, and increases reliance on external financing unless margins and revenue trends materially reverse.

High leverage and interest burden

A large reported debt overhang and persistent ~$13M interest expense structurally constrain free cash flow and strategic flexibility. High leverage increases refinancing risk and raises required operating cash generation to meaningfully de-lever, pressuring long-term solvency if execution slips.

Negative operating cash flow and 45Z timing risk

Negative operating and free cash flow signal core cash-generation issues. Delayed recognition and sale timing for Section 45Z production tax credits (DOE spreadsheet uncertainty) create structural volatility in expected future cash receipts, complicating refinancing and multi-quarter planning.

Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company in North America and India. It operates through three segments: California Ethanol, Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel. The company focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of negative carbon intensity products and technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products. It sells biodiesel primarily to government oil marketing companies, transport companies, resellers, distributors, and private refiners through its own sales force and independent sales agents, as well as to brokers who resell the product to end-users. The company also produces and sells ethanol; and wet distillers grains, distillers corn oil, and condensed distillers solubles to dairies and feedlots as animal feed. In addition, it produces dairy biogas; produces and sells high-grade alcohol and various feed products, as well as hand sanitizers; and researches and develops conversion technologies using waste feedstocks to produce biofuels and biochemicals. The company was formerly known as AE Biofuels, Inc. and changed its name to Aemetis, Inc. in November 2011. Aemetis, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Aemetis generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels, particularly renewable diesel and ethanol. The company leverages its production facilities, including the Keyes ethanol plant and a renewable diesel facility, to produce these biofuels from a variety of feedstocks. Key revenue streams include direct sales to fuel distributors and other commercial customers, as well as potential sales of renewable identification numbers (RINs) generated from biofuel production, which are used to comply with federal renewable fuel standards. Additionally, Aemetis benefits from strategic partnerships with agricultural and energy companies to enhance its supply chain and expand its market reach, further contributing to its earnings. Factors such as government incentives for renewable energy, increasing demand for sustainable fuels, and advancements in production technology also play a significant role in the company's profitability.

Aemetis Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak fundamentals: declining revenue (TTM growth -9.95%), deeply negative profitability (net margin -36.70%, gross margin -2.95%), negative operating/free cash flow, and a stressed capital structure with negative equity and high leverage signals.

Income Statement

Aemetis has been experiencing declining revenue with a negative growth rate of -9.95% in the TTM. The company also shows negative margins across the board, with a net profit margin of -36.70% and a gross profit margin of -2.95%, indicating significant challenges in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of -1.65, indicating a high level of leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity is positive at 30.04%, but this is due to negative equity, which is a concerning sign. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting a weak capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, with a free cash flow growth rate of -21.25% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.72, but this is due to negative net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	201.32M	267.64M	186.72M	256.51M	211.95M	165.56M
Gross Profit	-10.53M	-580.00K	2.02M	-5.54M	7.94M	11.03M
EBITDA	-47.88M	-49.82M	-34.84M	-79.72M	-21.64M	-5.08M
Net Income	-87.87M	-87.54M	-46.42M	-107.76M	-47.15M	-36.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	241.12M	259.30M	243.41M	207.11M	160.83M	125.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.58M	898.00K	2.67M	4.31M	7.75M	592.00K
Total Debt	286.71M	338.06M	296.91M	248.77M	191.34M	232.51M
Total Liabilities	545.97M	523.23M	460.38M	408.97M	281.07M	309.88M
Stockholders Equity	-304.85M	-263.93M	-216.98M	-201.85M	-120.24M	-184.74M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.31M	-53.18M	-19.29M	-62.02M	-47.30M	-16.86M
Operating Cash Flow	-15.09M	-32.93M	13.82M	-22.87M	-20.65M	2.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.75M	-14.15M	-23.69M	-31.31M	-22.89M	-17.31M
Financing Cash Flow	33.22M	44.62M	9.09M	53.63M	50.70M	14.78M

Aemetis Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.52, above the 50-day MA of 1.52, and above the 200-day MA of 2.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.13 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMTX.

Aemetis Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUN	69 Neutral	$9.78B	27.96	5.60%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
SGU	67 Neutral	$422.50M	7.25	19.41%	6.14%	1.04%	111.69%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CLNE	55 Neutral	$495.91M	―	-34.89%	―	2.59%	-192.73%
PBF	54 Neutral	$4.16B	-24.30	-2.92%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%
AMTX	49 Neutral	$94.00M	-0.89	―	―	-30.91%	29.09%
CAPL	49 Neutral	$769.57M	19.73	―	10.09%	-10.27%	131.17%

Aemetis Corporate Events

Aemetis Authorizes Major Share Repurchase and Executive Bonuses

On January 22, 2026, Aemetis’ board committee approved an annual $350,000 guarantee fee to McAfee Capital LLC, wholly owned by Chairman and CEO Eric A. McAfee, as compensation for personal guarantees backing certain of the company’s credit facilities and debt obligations, continuing the firm’s historical practice of such payments. On the same date, the committee granted discretionary cash bonuses to several top executives, including $200,000 to McAfee and amounts ranging from $50,000 to $125,000 for other senior officers, and the board authorized a share repurchase program of up to $80 million of common stock, signaling a capital allocation move that could support the stock price and adjust the company’s capital structure, while shareholders prepare to vote at a special meeting on proposed amendments to the company’s charter to reallocate authorized preferred and common shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMTX) stock is a Sell with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aemetis stock, see the AMTX Stock Forecast page.