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Aemetis Inc (AMTX)
:AMTX
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Aemetis
(NASDAQ:AMTX)
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Select Model
Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-49.49% Downside)
Aemetis faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, negative margins, and high leverage, which are the most impactful factors. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. While the earnings call highlighted some positive developments, financial liabilities and debt issues remain concerning.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The increase in revenue, driven by international biodiesel orders, indicates expanding market reach and potential for sustained growth in new markets.
Strategic Expansion
The development of a large-scale SAF facility positions Aemetis to capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuels, enhancing long-term growth prospects.
RNG Production Increase
Increased RNG production capacity supports revenue diversification and aligns with sustainability trends, potentially boosting future earnings.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage and negative equity pose solvency risks, limiting financial flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.
Negative Cash Flows
Persistent negative cash flows hinder the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives without external financing.
Profitability Challenges
Declining revenue and negative profit margins reflect operational inefficiencies, challenging the company's ability to achieve sustainable profitability.
Aemetis (AMTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$97.04M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)788.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.48
Revenue Growth-30.91%
EPS Growth29.09%
CountryUS
Employees223
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.37
Shares Outstanding66,200,000
10 Day Avg. Volume763,872
30 Day Avg. Volume788,285
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)-0.47
Price to Sales (P/S)0.46
P/FCF Ratio-2.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.47
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-59.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-13.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.00Price Target Upside573.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$222.39M
Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAemetis, Inc. (AMTX) is a renewable fuels and biochemical company focused on the production of advanced biofuels and renewable chemicals. Headquartered in Cupertino, California, Aemetis operates in sectors such as renewable energy and agriculture, specializing in the development of sustainable solutions that reduce carbon emissions. The company's core products include renewable diesel, ethanol, and other bio-based products derived from agricultural and waste feedstocks, designed to meet growing demand for low-carbon alternatives in transportation and industrial applications.
How the Company Makes MoneyAemetis generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels, particularly renewable diesel and ethanol. The company leverages its production facilities, including the Keyes ethanol plant and a renewable diesel facility, to produce these biofuels from a variety of feedstocks. Key revenue streams include direct sales to fuel distributors and other commercial customers, as well as potential sales of renewable identification numbers (RINs) generated from biofuel production, which are used to comply with federal renewable fuel standards. Additionally, Aemetis benefits from strategic partnerships with agricultural and energy companies to enhance its supply chain and expand its market reach, further contributing to its earnings. Factors such as government incentives for renewable energy, increasing demand for sustainable fuels, and advancements in production technology also play a significant role in the company's profitability.
Aemetis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with significant revenue growth, expansion in renewable natural gas capacity, and progress in regulatory and market support. However, ongoing financial liabilities, delayed recognition of tax credits, and challenges in debt refinancing present notable concerns.Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increase in Revenues
Revenues were $59.2 million, up by approximately $7 million from the second quarter of 2025, driven by biodiesel orders in India and stronger ethanol production and sales pricing.
Expansion in Dairy Renewable Natural Gas
Biogas production capacity increased by more than 30% at the end of Q3, with the goal to reach more than 500,000 MMBtus by the end of 2025 and 1 million MMBtu by the end of 2026.
Significant LCFS Credit Revenue Increase
Seven dairy digester low carbon fuel standard pathways were approved, increasing LCFS credit revenue by 160% compared to default pathways.
Successful Tax Credit Sales
To date, $83 million in investment tax credits were sold, with more than $70 million in cash received. There is an ongoing sale process for $12 million in investment tax credits and $10 million in 45Z production tax credits.
Ethanol Plant Project Funding
$30 million Mechanical Vapor Recompression system is fully financed and expected to reduce natural gas use by 80%, adding an estimated $32 million in annual cash flow starting in mid-2026.
India Subsidiary Expansion
India biofuels posted $14.5 million of revenues. A new CFO with IPO experience was appointed, targeting a public listing in 2026.
Regulatory and Market Support
Amendments to the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard and federal policies are expected to enhance biofuel and biogas operations, with LCFS credit prices rising by more than 25% since the summer.
Negative Updates
Interest Expense
Interest expense remained steady at around $13 million during the quarter, indicating ongoing financial liabilities.
Delayed Recognition of Section 45Z Tax Credits
Section 45Z tax credits from dairy renewable natural gas production were not included in Q3, pending sale, which affected financial reporting.
Challenges with DOE Calculations
The Department of Energy has not issued the updated 45Z spreadsheet for correct calculations, delaying potential income generation.
Debt Overhang
$266 million in debt is cited as an overhang on the stock, with refinancing efforts delayed due to pending 45Z revenue streams.
Company Guidance
During the third quarter of 2025, Aemetis reported revenues of $59.2 million, reflecting a $7 million increase from the previous quarter, primarily driven by biodiesel orders in India and improved ethanol sales and pricing. The California operations achieved a production rate of 14.7 million gallons, aided by favorable margins, while the California Dairy Natural Gas segment generated $4 million in revenue from 12 operating digesters, with seven approved under the LCFS pathway. India biofuels contributed $14.5 million in revenue, and the company appointed a new CFO to prepare for a potential IPO in 2026. Despite a steady interest expense of around $13 million, Aemetis ended the quarter with $5.6 million in cash after investing $4.1 million in carbon intensity reduction and renewable natural gas production expansion. The company anticipates multiple income streams from India, LCFS credits, and federal tax incentives to strengthen in the fourth quarter, setting the stage for a robust close to 2025 and increased 45Z income streams in 2026.Aemetis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Aemetis is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenues, negative profitability margins, and high leverage. The negative equity and cash flow issues further compound the financial instability. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve its capital structure to enhance financial health.Income Statement
Aemetis has been experiencing declining revenue with a negative growth rate of -9.95% in the TTM. The company also shows negative margins across the board, with a net profit margin of -36.70% and a gross profit margin of -2.95%, indicating significant challenges in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies.25
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of -1.65, indicating a high level of leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity is positive at 30.04%, but this is due to negative equity, which is a concerning sign. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting a weak capital structure.30
Negative
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis shows negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, with a free cash flow growth rate of -21.25% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.72, but this is due to negative net income.20
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 201.32M | 267.64M | 186.72M | 256.51M | 211.95M | 165.56M |
| Gross Profit | -10.53M | -580.00K | 2.02M | -5.54M | 7.94M | 11.03M |
| EBITDA | -47.88M | -49.82M | -34.84M | -79.72M | -21.64M | -5.08M |
| Net Income | -87.87M | -87.54M | -46.42M | -107.76M | -47.15M | -36.66M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 241.12M | 259.30M | 243.41M | 207.11M | 160.83M | 125.14M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.58M | 898.00K | 2.67M | 4.31M | 7.75M | 592.00K |
| Total Debt | 286.71M | 338.06M | 296.91M | 248.77M | 191.34M | 232.51M |
| Total Liabilities | 545.97M | 523.23M | 460.38M | 408.97M | 281.07M | 309.88M |
| Stockholders Equity | -304.85M | -263.93M | -216.98M | -201.85M | -120.24M | -184.74M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -31.31M | -53.18M | -19.29M | -62.02M | -47.30M | -16.86M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -15.09M | -32.93M | 13.82M | -22.87M | -20.65M | 2.48M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.75M | -14.15M | -23.69M | -31.31M | -22.89M | -17.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 33.22M | 44.62M | 9.09M | 53.63M | 50.70M | 14.78M |
Aemetis Technical Analysis
Negative
2.97
Price Trends
2.00
Negative
2.25
Negative
2.13
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Negative
39.62
Neutral
31.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.55, above the 50-day MA of 2.00, and above the 200-day MA of 2.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMTX.
Aemetis Risk Analysis
Aemetis disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aemetis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aemetis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $7.98B | 17.77 | 8.27% | 6.93% | -5.18% | -33.14% | |
66 Neutral | $385.83M | 6.42 | 20.37% | 6.22% | 1.04% | 111.69% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
55 Neutral | $3.05B | -5.60 | -9.47% | 4.17% | -15.35% | -81.94% | |
54 Neutral | $781.47M | 17.43 | ― | 10.24% | -10.27% | 131.17% | |
43 Neutral | $489.04M | -2.39 | -31.94% | ― | 2.59% | -192.73% | |
42 Neutral | $97.04M | -0.93 | ― | ― | -30.91% | 29.09% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AMTX
Aemetis
1.48
-1.11
-42.86%
CLNE
Clean Energy Fuels
2.24
-0.29
-11.46%
SGU
Star Gas Partners
11.89
1.20
11.23%
PBF
PBF Energy
26.12
1.82
7.49%
SUN
Sunoco
52.13
3.96
8.22%
CAPL
Crossamerica Partners
20.74
1.10
5.60%
Aemetis Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aemetis Extends Redemption Date for Preferred Units
Neutral
Oct 21, 2025
On October 15, 2025, Aemetis Biogas LLC, a subsidiary of Aemetis, Inc., announced an agreement with Protair-X Technologies Inc. and Third Eye Capital Corporation to extend the redemption date of Series A Preferred Units to December 31, 2025, and adjust the redemption price to $118.8 million. If the units are not redeemed by the new date, a credit agreement will be entered with key terms including a maturity date of September 1, 2026, and a high-interest rate, impacting Aemetis’s financial obligations and stakeholder interests.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.