Aemetis (AMTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $113.43M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.49
• Revenue Growth: -30.91%
• EPS Growth: 29.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 223
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): -0.37
• Shares Outstanding: 65,568,540
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 826,102
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,067,250
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.47
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.46
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.32
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -59.59
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -13.11
• 1Y Price Target: $20.00
• Price Target Upside: 573.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): -1.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $247.54M

• Rating: 42 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▼(-49.49% Downside)

Aemetis faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenues, negative margins, and high leverage, which are the most impactful factors. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics are unattractive due to negative earnings. While the earnings call highlighted some positive developments, financial liabilities and debt issues remain concerning.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The increase in revenue, driven by international biodiesel orders, indicates expanding market reach and potential for sustained growth in new markets.

Strategic Expansion

The development of a large-scale SAF facility positions Aemetis to capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuels, enhancing long-term growth prospects.

RNG Production Increase

Increased RNG production capacity supports revenue diversification and aligns with sustainability trends, potentially boosting future earnings.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage and negative equity pose solvency risks, limiting financial flexibility and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.

Negative Cash Flows

Persistent negative cash flows hinder the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives without external financing.

Profitability Challenges

Declining revenue and negative profit margins reflect operational inefficiencies, challenging the company's ability to achieve sustainable profitability.

Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Aemetis, Inc. operates as a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company in North America and India. It operates through three segments: California Ethanol, Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel. The company focuses on the acquisition, development, and commercialization of negative carbon intensity products and technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products. It sells biodiesel primarily to government oil marketing companies, transport companies, resellers, distributors, and private refiners through its own sales force and independent sales agents, as well as to brokers who resell the product to end-users. The company also produces and sells ethanol; and wet distillers grains, distillers corn oil, and condensed distillers solubles to dairies and feedlots as animal feed. In addition, it produces dairy biogas; produces and sells high-grade alcohol and various feed products, as well as hand sanitizers; and researches and develops conversion technologies using waste feedstocks to produce biofuels and biochemicals. The company was formerly known as AE Biofuels, Inc. and changed its name to Aemetis, Inc. in November 2011. Aemetis, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Aemetis generates revenue primarily through the sale of its renewable fuels, particularly renewable diesel and ethanol. The company leverages its production facilities, including the Keyes ethanol plant and a renewable diesel facility, to produce these biofuels from a variety of feedstocks. Key revenue streams include direct sales to fuel distributors and other commercial customers, as well as potential sales of renewable identification numbers (RINs) generated from biofuel production, which are used to comply with federal renewable fuel standards. Additionally, Aemetis benefits from strategic partnerships with agricultural and energy companies to enhance its supply chain and expand its market reach, further contributing to its earnings. Factors such as government incentives for renewable energy, increasing demand for sustainable fuels, and advancements in production technology also play a significant role in the company's profitability.

Aemetis Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Aemetis is facing significant financial challenges with declining revenues, negative profitability margins, and high leverage. The negative equity and cash flow issues further compound the financial instability. The company needs to address operational inefficiencies and improve its capital structure to enhance financial health.

Income Statement

Aemetis has been experiencing declining revenue with a negative growth rate of -9.95% in the TTM. The company also shows negative margins across the board, with a net profit margin of -36.70% and a gross profit margin of -2.95%, indicating significant challenges in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of -1.65, indicating a high level of leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity is positive at 30.04%, but this is due to negative equity, which is a concerning sign. The equity ratio is negative, reflecting a weak capital structure.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, with a free cash flow growth rate of -21.25% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 1.72, but this is due to negative net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	201.32M	267.64M	186.72M	256.51M	211.95M	165.56M
Gross Profit	-10.53M	-580.00K	2.02M	-5.54M	7.94M	11.03M
EBITDA	-47.88M	-49.82M	-34.84M	-79.72M	-21.64M	-5.08M
Net Income	-87.87M	-87.54M	-46.42M	-107.76M	-47.15M	-36.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	241.12M	259.30M	243.41M	207.11M	160.83M	125.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	5.58M	898.00K	2.67M	4.31M	7.75M	592.00K
Total Debt	286.71M	338.06M	296.91M	248.77M	191.34M	232.51M
Total Liabilities	545.97M	523.23M	460.38M	408.97M	281.07M	309.88M
Stockholders Equity	-304.85M	-263.93M	-216.98M	-201.85M	-120.24M	-184.74M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-31.31M	-53.18M	-19.29M	-62.02M	-47.30M	-16.86M
Operating Cash Flow	-15.09M	-32.93M	13.82M	-22.87M	-20.65M	2.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-12.75M	-14.15M	-23.69M	-31.31M	-22.89M	-17.31M
Financing Cash Flow	33.22M	44.62M	9.09M	53.63M	50.70M	14.78M

Aemetis Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.87, above the 50-day MA of 2.31, and above the 200-day MA of 2.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMTX.

Aemetis Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUN	73 Outperform	$8.60B	19.17	8.27%	6.43%	-5.18%	-33.14%
SGU	66 Neutral	$403.28M	7.80	16.22%	6.06%	-0.87%	33.52%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
PBF	55 Neutral	$3.99B	―	-9.47%	3.19%	-15.35%	-81.94%
CAPL	54 Neutral	$777.66M	17.34	―	10.29%	-10.27%	131.17%
CLNE	43 Neutral	$609.62M	-3.05	-31.94%	―	2.59%	-192.73%
AMTX	42 Neutral	$113.43M	―	―	―	-30.91%	29.09%

Aemetis Corporate Events

Aemetis Inc’s Earnings Call Highlights Growth and Challenges

Aemetis Inc’s recent earnings call conveyed a generally positive sentiment, highlighting significant revenue growth and expansion in renewable natural gas capacity. The company demonstrated progress in regulatory and market support, although concerns remain regarding financial liabilities, delayed tax credit recognition, and challenges in debt refinancing.

Aemetis Inc. Reports Q3 2025 Financial Results

Aemetis Inc., headquartered in Cupertino, California, is a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company that focuses on low and negative carbon intensity products to reduce emissions and fuel costs. It operates ethanol and biodiesel production facilities in the United States and India, respectively, and is expanding its biogas digester network.

Aemetis Extends Redemption Date for Preferred Units

On October 15, 2025, Aemetis Biogas LLC, a subsidiary of Aemetis, Inc., announced an agreement with Protair-X Technologies Inc. and Third Eye Capital Corporation to extend the redemption date of Series A Preferred Units to December 31, 2025, and adjust the redemption price to $118.8 million. If the units are not redeemed by the new date, a credit agreement will be entered with key terms including a maturity date of September 1, 2026, and a high-interest rate, impacting Aemetis’s financial obligations and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMTX) stock is a Hold with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aemetis stock, see the AMTX Stock Forecast page.