Somnigroup International (SGI)
NYSE:SGI
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Somnigroup International
(NYSE:SGI)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$76.00
â–¼(-1.77% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals and strong cash generation, supported by upbeat guidance and synergy-driven margin expansion expectations. Offsetting these positives are weak near-term technicals and a demanding valuation (high P/E with a modest yield).
Positive Factors
Scale and market position
Being the world’s largest bedding company with extensive wholesale and owned retail banners provides durable advantages: scale lowers per-unit costs, strengthens bargaining with suppliers and retailers, enables national marketing efficiency, and supports faster rollouts of new products and international expansion.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material net debt and leverage above target constrain capital allocation and increase sensitivity to demand shocks or interest-cost volatility. Until leverage sustainably reaches targeted 2–3x, management may need to prioritize debt reduction over opportunistic investment or larger buybacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale and market position
Being the world’s largest bedding company with extensive wholesale and owned retail banners provides durable advantages: scale lowers per-unit costs, strengthens bargaining with suppliers and retailers, enables national marketing efficiency, and supports faster rollouts of new products and international expansion.
Read all positive factors
Somnigroup International (SGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.27B
Dividend Yield0.67%
Average Volume (3M)2.50M
Price to Earnings (P/E)47.9
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth39.29%
EPS Growth-30.44%
CountryUS
Employees12,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryHousehold & Personal Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.72
Shares Outstanding210,340,620
10 Day Avg. Volume2,819,749
30 Day Avg. Volume2,496,336
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-3.02
Price to Book (P/B)5.92
Price to Sales (P/S)2.46
P/FCF Ratio29.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.26
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda23.90
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$103.14Price Target Upside33.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)3.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.95B
Somnigroup International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Somni is a company specializing in sleep technology and wellness solutions, developing innovative products to enhance sleep quality. The company integrates science-backed methods, smart technology, and data-driven insights to improve sleep pattern...
How the Company Makes Money
SGI primarily makes money by selling mattresses and other sleep-related products through two core routes: (1) wholesale sales to third-party retailers and other business customers, and (2) direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales through company-operated ch...
Somnigroup International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong company-level execution: record 2025 sales, EBITDA and EPS growth, accelerated and upsized synergy realization from the Mattress Firm combination, robust international growth, margin expansion in North America, and an improved balance sheet trajectory with increased shareholder returns. These positives were delivered despite an industry that is at a multi-year low and near-term challenges including direct-channel softness, weather-related lost sales, intercompany elimination impacts to reported revenue and a still‑elevated debt balance. Given that the company showed multiple operational wins, raised synergy and long‑term EPS targets, and provided constructive 2026 guidance, the highlights meaningfully outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
2025 consolidated net sales up ~55% to $1.90B; adjusted EBITDA up ~59% to $349M; adjusted EPS $0.72, up 20% year-over-year — achieved despite a weak industry backdrop.
Negative Updates
Bedding Industry Weakness
The US bedding industry was at a record low and declined mid-single digits in Q4 and for the full year 2025, underperforming company expectations and creating a challenging backdrop for near-term growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Performance
2025 consolidated net sales up ~55% to $1.90B; adjusted EBITDA up ~59% to $349M; adjusted EPS $0.72, up 20% year-over-year — achieved despite a weak industry backdrop.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.00–$3.40 on a sales midpoint of roughly $7.9B (after ~23% intercompany eliminations), assuming a bedding industry that is slightly up (low‑single‑digit H1 growth); management expects Tempur‑Sealy North America like‑for‑like sales to grow mid‑single‑digits, international to grow mid‑to‑high‑single‑digits, and Mattress Firm like‑for‑like sales to grow low‑to‑mid single digits. They forecast reported gross margin slightly above 45% (about +100 bps net margin expansion from operational efficiencies and synergies), adjusted EBITDA of ~ $1.45B at the midpoint, and CapEx of ≈ $250M in 2026 (including $75M for Mattress Firm store refreshes/brand walls, with a normalized run‑rate of ~$200M thereafter). Additional modeling assumptions: D&A ≈ $315M, interest ≈ $225M, tax rate 25%, diluted share count ~214M, advertising spend ≈ $720M, at least 50% of 2026 free cash flow to go to dividends/repurchases, an incremental ~$40M EBITDA from Tempur/brand mix at Mattress Firm, cost synergies of $125M total ( ~$20M realized in 2025, $55M in 2026, $50M in 2027), and a raised 2028 EPS target of $5.15 (≈24% CAGR from 2025).Somnigroup International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.48B | 4.93B | 4.93B | 4.92B | 4.93B |
| Gross Profit | 3.32B | 2.18B | 2.13B | 2.05B | 2.16B |
| EBITDA | 1.04B | 804.20M | 739.30M | 807.30M | 1.00B |
| Net Income | 384.10M | 384.30M | 368.10M | 455.70M | 624.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.61B | 5.98B | 4.55B | 4.36B | 4.32B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 134.90M | 117.40M | 74.90M | 69.40M | 300.70M |
| Total Debt | 8.26B | 4.47B | 3.27B | 3.37B | 2.86B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.50B | 5.41B | 4.22B | 4.37B | 4.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.11B | 559.00M | 323.40M | -22.10M | 285.80M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 633.20M | 569.20M | 384.90M | 72.30M | 599.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 800.10M | 666.50M | 570.30M | 378.80M | 723.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.02B | -96.70M | -187.80M | -315.60M | -555.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 616.90M | 1.08B | -384.30M | -279.10M | 76.50M |
Somnigroup International Technical Analysis
Neutral
77.37
Price Trends
83.61
Negative
87.07
Negative
83.24
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.69
Negative
50.24
Neutral
56.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SGI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 77.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.64, below the 50-day MA of 83.61, and below the 200-day MA of 83.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SGI.
Somnigroup International Risk Analysis
Somnigroup International disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Somnigroup International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Somnigroup International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $22.31B | 27.62 | 17.16% | 1.38% | 1.45% | 42.04% | |
68 Neutral | $33.24B | 24.95 | 13.94% | 4.85% | -2.94% | 34.54% | |
61 Neutral | $16.27B | 47.88 | 13.16% | 0.67% | 39.29% | -30.44% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $68.57B | -429.64 | 431.59% | 2.67% | -0.05% | 2.49% | |
61 Neutral | $32.20B | 16.63 | 155.28% | 5.03% | -10.04% | -23.41% | |
56 Neutral | $12.78B | 19.52 | 1502.49% | 5.05% | -9.35% | 123.06% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
SGI
Somnigroup International
77.37
17.69
29.63%
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Somnigroup International Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Somnigroup International Hosts Investor Day Outlining Strategic Vision
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
Somnigroup International Inc. held its Investor Day on Wednesday, March 4, 2026, featuring executive management presentations on the company’s strategic vision, growth initiatives across business units, multi-year financial target framework,...
Business Operations and Strategy
Somnigroup Updates Strategy Amid Global Bedding Market Recovery
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Somnigroup International Inc. released an updated investor presentation outlining its positioning as the world’s largest bedding company and its strategy for capturing growth as the global bedding market recovers. The d...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Somnigroup International advances due diligence on Leggett & Platt bid
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
On January 20, 2026, Somnigroup International announced that Leggett Platt’s board had authorized discussions and signed a customary non-disclosure agreement to allow due diligence on Somnigroup’s previously disclosed all-stock propos...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.