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Somnigroup International (SGI)
NYSE:SGI

Somnigroup International (SGI) AI Stock Analysis

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SGI

Somnigroup International

(NYSE:SGI)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$101.00
â–²(10.37% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by solid financial fundamentals (revenue and free-cash-flow growth plus improved leverage) and a positive earnings-call outlook with strong results and synergy benefits. These are tempered by weakening profitability/ROE and a rich valuation (high P/E, low yield), while technicals are supportive but not strongly oversold/overbought.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates robust market demand and effective sales strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.
Strategic Acquisition
The acquisition proposal could expand market reach and product offerings, potentially driving future growth and competitive positioning.
Cash Generation
Strong cash generation enhances financial flexibility, supporting investment in growth initiatives and providing a buffer against economic downturns.
Negative Factors
Declining Profit Margins
Falling profit margins suggest operational inefficiencies, which could impact long-term profitability and shareholder returns.
Competitive International Marketplace
Increased competition internationally may pressure margins and limit growth opportunities, challenging the company's global expansion efforts.
Flat U.S. Bedding Market
A stagnant U.S. market could hinder revenue growth, requiring strategic adjustments to capture new opportunities and sustain performance.

Somnigroup International (SGI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Somnigroup International Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSomni is a company specializing in sleep technology and wellness solutions, developing innovative products to enhance sleep quality. The company integrates science-backed methods, smart technology, and data-driven insights to improve sleep patterns and overall well-being.
How the Company Makes MoneySomnigroup International generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its flagship sleep technology products, which include wearable sleep trackers, smart pillows, and sleep optimization software. Additionally, SGI offers subscription-based services for personalized sleep coaching and access to an exclusive app that provides tailored sleep improvement plans. The company has established significant partnerships with healthcare providers and wellness organizations, enabling them to reach a broader audience and integrate their products into clinical settings. Moreover, SGI earns revenue through licensing agreements with other companies in the health and wellness industry, allowing them to utilize SGI's proprietary technology and research in their own products.

Somnigroup International Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance by Somnigroup, highlighted by record financial metrics and successful synergy realization from the Mattress Firm acquisition. However, challenges remain in the U.S. bedding market and competitive international environments. Despite these lowlights, the highlights significantly outweigh the challenges, indicating a positive sentiment.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Financial Performance
Somnigroup achieved record net sales of $2.1 billion, up approximately 63%, adjusted EBITDA of $419 million, up approximately 52%, and adjusted EPS of $0.95 per share, up approximately 16% compared to the previous year.
Strong International Sales Growth
Tempur International sales grew 11% in the quarter, driven by a refreshed product lineup, expanded distribution, and strong local execution.
Successful Synergy Realization
Synergies from the Mattress Firm combination are ahead of expectations, contributing to $60 million of adjusted EBITDA benefit in 2025, with an incremental $40 million expected in 2026.
Mattress Firm Outperformance
Mattress Firm reported strong same-store sales growth of 5% in the quarter, driven by superior in-store execution and a refreshed customer experience.
Negative Updates
Flat U.S. Bedding Market
The U.S. bedding market remains flat from a sales perspective and is still at trough levels, with the housing market yet to recover.
Decline in North American Direct Channel
Like-for-like net sales through the direct channel in North America declined 4% in the third quarter.
Competitive International Marketplace
International gross margins declined 40 basis points due to a competitive U.K. marketplace.
Company Guidance
During the Somnigroup Third Quarter 2025 earnings call, significant performance metrics and guidance were highlighted. The company achieved record net sales of $2.1 billion, marking a 63% increase, and adjusted EBITDA rose by 52% to $419 million. The adjusted EPS increased by 16% to $0.95 per share. The company's like-for-like sales growth was 5%, driven by strong international operations. Tempur Sealy North America reported a 5% like-for-like sales growth, attributed to new product launches and a $110 million advertising investment. Mattress Firm reported a 5% same-store sales growth, supported by improved in-store execution. Somnigroup is also on track to achieve $100 million in annual run rate net cost synergies by 2027, with an anticipated $60 million EBITDA benefit from sales synergies in 2025. For 2025, Somnigroup revised its adjusted EPS guidance to $2.60-$2.75, with expected sales of approximately $7.5 billion.

Somnigroup International Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Solid top-line and cash generation: revenue is up 13.7% (TTM) and free cash flow grew 20.7%. Balance sheet leverage improved materially (debt-to-equity down to 2.41). Offsetting this, profitability weakened (net margin down to 4.47% TTM) and ROE fell to 15.97%, indicating reduced efficiency and margin pressure.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Somnigroup International has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 13.7% increase in TTM, indicating a positive trajectory. However, the net profit margin has decreased from 7.79% in 2024 to 4.47% in TTM, suggesting declining profitability. The gross profit margin remains stable at around 42%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, reflecting potential operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The company has significantly reduced its debt-to-equity ratio from 7.99 in 2024 to 2.41 in TTM, showing improved financial stability. However, the return on equity has decreased to 15.97% in TTM from 68.75% in 2024, indicating reduced efficiency in generating profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio has improved, suggesting better asset management.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Free cash flow has grown by 20.7% in TTM, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is at 0.40, suggesting moderate cash flow efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains high at 0.86, reflecting good cash conversion from profits.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.82B4.93B4.93B4.92B4.93B3.68B
Gross Profit2.88B2.18B2.13B2.05B2.16B1.64B
EBITDA857.90M804.20M739.30M807.30M1.00B627.40M
Net Income315.20M384.30M368.10M455.70M624.50M348.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.40B5.98B4.55B4.36B4.32B3.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments100.20M117.40M74.90M69.40M300.70M65.00M
Total Debt6.62B4.47B3.27B3.37B2.86B1.70B
Total Liabilities8.41B5.41B4.22B4.37B4.03B2.80B
Stockholders Equity2.99B559.00M323.40M-22.10M285.80M503.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow700.30M569.20M384.90M72.30M599.80M543.40M
Operating Cash Flow829.80M666.50M570.30M378.80M723.10M654.70M
Investing Cash Flow-2.97B-96.70M-187.80M-315.60M-555.70M-146.30M
Financing Cash Flow2.12B1.08B-384.30M-279.10M76.50M-522.60M

Somnigroup International Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price91.51
Price Trends
50DMA
90.95
Positive
100DMA
87.75
Positive
200DMA
78.91
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.07
Positive
RSI
50.57
Neutral
STOCH
24.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SGI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 91.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 91.90, above the 50-day MA of 90.95, and above the 200-day MA of 78.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SGI.

Somnigroup International Risk Analysis

Somnigroup International disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Somnigroup International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Somnigroup International Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$23.11B31.8717.62%1.38%1.45%42.04%
69
Neutral
$18.44B57.2917.76%0.67%39.29%-30.44%
66
Neutral
$33.34B23.3913.47%4.85%-2.94%34.54%
65
Neutral
$72.78B34.331602.26%2.67%-0.05%2.49%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
61
Neutral
$33.18B16.49147.22%5.03%-10.04%-23.41%
59
Neutral
$13.76B17.684163.16%5.05%-9.35%123.06%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SGI
Somnigroup International
91.51
27.26
42.43%
CHD
Church & Dwight
97.34
-7.31
-6.99%
CLX
Clorox
113.29
-29.08
-20.43%
CL
Colgate-Palmolive
91.89
7.47
8.85%
KMB
Kimberly Clark
99.50
-24.71
-19.89%
KVUE
Kenvue, Inc.
17.38
-2.60
-13.01%

Somnigroup International Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Somnigroup International advances due diligence on Leggett & Platt bid
Positive
Jan 20, 2026

On January 20, 2026, Somnigroup International announced that Leggett & Platt’s board had authorized discussions and signed a customary non-disclosure agreement to allow due diligence on Somnigroup’s previously disclosed all-stock proposal. Somnigroup reaffirmed its December 1, 2025 offer to acquire Leggett & Platt at an implied value of $12 per share, representing a 30% premium to Leggett & Platt’s unaffected 30‑day average share price, and said it would not revise the proposal prior to completion of due diligence. The company stressed that there is no assurance a definitive agreement will be reached or that any transaction will be completed, noting that any deal would require Leggett & Platt shareholder and regulatory approvals but would not be subject to financing contingencies or approval by Somnigroup’s shareholders, a structure that could streamline execution if negotiations succeed. Somnigroup has engaged Goldman Sachs as financial adviser and Cleary Gottlieb as legal counsel, underscoring the seriousness of its pursuit as it seeks a combination it says would create long-term value for investors in both companies.

The most recent analyst rating on (SGI) stock is a Buy with a $104.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Somnigroup International stock, see the SGI Stock Forecast page.

M&A Transactions
Somnigroup Proposes Acquisition of Leggett & Platt
Positive
Dec 1, 2025

On December 1, 2025, Somnigroup International Inc. announced a proposal to acquire Leggett & Platt in an all-stock transaction, offering a 30.3% premium to Leggett & Platt’s average closing price over the last 30 trading days. This acquisition aims to provide significant value to Leggett & Platt shareholders and enhance the growth potential of the combined company, with Leggett & Platt continuing to operate independently under Somnigroup’s umbrella.

The most recent analyst rating on (SGI) stock is a Buy with a $104.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Somnigroup International stock, see the SGI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Somnigroup International Unveils Strategic Initiatives Update
Neutral
Nov 6, 2025

On November 6, 2025, Somnigroup International Inc. released an updated investor presentation, highlighting its strategic initiatives and market positioning. The company aims to expand its market share and enhance its consumer experience through continuous innovation and operational efficiencies. The presentation also outlined the impact of tariff-related pricing adjustments expected to affect sales in North America, with further price increases anticipated in early 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SGI) stock is a Hold with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Somnigroup International stock, see the SGI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 21, 2026