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The Estée Lauder Companies
(NYSE:EL)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$89.00
▲(16.80% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/02/26
The score is most constrained by weak profitability and high leverage in the financials, alongside an expensive P/E-based valuation. These are partly offset by a more constructive earnings-call outlook (raised guidance, improving margins and cash generation). Technicals remain mixed, with neutral oscillators but price still below key longer-term moving averages.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Nine-month operating cash flow rose materially to $1.2B from $671M, indicating stronger cash generation and working-capital control. Durable cash flow improves the company's ability to fund PRGP savings, disciplined capex, deleveraging or strategic investments without heavy reliance on new external financing.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Debt-to-equity above 2x and stepped-down equity reduce financial flexibility and elevate refinancing and interest-rate risks. This capital-structure profile constrains the firm's ability to invest behind brands or pursue M&A, and makes recovery more sensitive to cash-flow volatility over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Nine-month operating cash flow rose materially to $1.2B from $671M, indicating stronger cash generation and working-capital control. Durable cash flow improves the company's ability to fund PRGP savings, disciplined capex, deleveraging or strategic investments without heavy reliance on new external financing.
Read all positive factors
The Estée Lauder Companies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where The Estée Lauder Companies is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where The Estée Lauder Companies is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyThe Estée Lauder Companies (EL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$30.72B
Dividend Yield1.3%
Average Volume (3M)3.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.56
Revenue Growth0.71%
EPS Growth71.47%
CountryUS
Employees57,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryHousehold & Personal Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.68
Shares Outstanding247,287,570
10 Day Avg. Volume3,027,348
30 Day Avg. Volume3,591,693
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)7.53
Price to Sales (P/S)2.04
P/FCF Ratio43.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.31
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$92.76Price Target Upside21.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering18
EPS Forecast (FY)3.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.57B
The Estée Lauder Companies Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. is a global entity dedicated to the development, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of premium beauty and personal care items worldwide. Its extensive product catalog encompasses numerous offerings across four p...
How the Company Makes Money
The Estée Lauder Companies makes money primarily by selling prestige beauty products across four main product categories—skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care—under a portfolio of brands. Revenue is generated when products are sold through mu...
The Estée Lauder Companies Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a confident and constructive tone: management raised full‑year guidance, reported meaningful margin expansion, strong EPS growth, improved cash generation and broad digital/channel progress, while acknowledging near‑term and structural headwinds including North American brick‑and‑mortar pressure, Middle East disruption and an expanded restructuring program with significant one‑time charges and workforce impacts. Given the magnitude of the operational and financial improvements and the upward guidance, positives outweigh the negatives in the near term.Positive Updates
Raised Fiscal '26 Outlook and Preliminary Fiscal '27 View
Company raised fiscal 2026 outlook to organic sales growth of ~3% (high end of prior range) and operating margin guidance of 10.7%–11% (up from prior midpoint ~10% and vs. 8% in fiscal '25). Preliminary fiscal 2027 view: organic sales growth of 3%–5% and operating margin of 12.5%–13%.
Negative Updates
North America Brick‑and‑Mortar Pressure
North America sales declined low single digits in the quarter, driven by brick‑and‑mortar pressure including retailer bankruptcies, shop‑in‑shop closures and retailer destocking. Management noted disruption cost the business up to ~2 percentage points of growth in the quarter.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Raised Fiscal '26 Outlook and Preliminary Fiscal '27 View
Company raised fiscal 2026 outlook to organic sales growth of ~3% (high end of prior range) and operating margin guidance of 10.7%–11% (up from prior midpoint ~10% and vs. 8% in fiscal '25). Preliminary fiscal 2027 view: organic sales growth of 3%–5% and operating margin of 12.5%–13%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its fiscal 2026 outlook and gave a preliminary view on fiscal 2027: for FY‑26 it now expects organic net sales growth of ~3%, gross margin of approximately 75%, operating margin of 10.7%–11.0% and diluted EPS of $2.35–$2.45 (up ~56%–62% YoY) assuming a weighted‑average share count of ~365 million; the outlook assumes the Q4 Middle East disruption will be ~2 percentage points of sales headwind and ~$0.06 of EPS (full‑year Middle East impact <1%), and total restructuring and other charges of $1.5–$1.7 billion pre‑tax (cumulative $1.1 billion through 3/31). For FY‑27 the company’s preliminary plan assumes organic net sales growth of 3%–5% and an operating margin of 12.5%–13.0% (with gross margin expected north of ~75% and SG&A around ~62%), while noting PRGP savings and cash generation (9‑month operating cash flow $1.2B vs $671M prior year; 9M CapEx $306M, down 23%) will support margin and reinvestment.The Estée Lauder Companies Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.84B | 14.29B | 15.61B | 15.91B | 17.74B | 16.21B |
| Gross Profit | 10.89B | 10.56B | 11.18B | 11.35B | 13.43B | 12.38B |
| EBITDA | 1.34B | 193.00M | 1.98B | 2.40B | 3.93B | 4.16B |
| Net Income | -248.00M | -1.13B | 390.00M | 1.01B | 2.39B | 2.87B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 19.66B | 19.89B | 21.68B | 23.41B | 20.91B | 21.97B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.13B | 2.92B | 3.40B | 4.03B | 3.96B | 4.96B |
| Total Debt | 9.30B | 9.44B | 9.83B | 10.17B | 7.64B | 8.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 15.67B | 16.03B | 16.36B | 17.00B | 14.48B | 15.02B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.99B | 3.87B | 5.31B | 5.58B | 5.59B | 6.06B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.28B | 670.00M | 1.44B | -1.56B | 2.00B | 2.99B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.80B | 1.27B | 2.36B | 1.73B | 3.04B | 3.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -519.00M | -644.00M | -1.71B | -3.22B | -960.00M | -1.86B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -810.00M | -1.12B | -1.29B | 1.59B | -3.02B | -1.89B |
The Estée Lauder Companies Technical Analysis
Positive
76.20
Price Trends
83.06
Positive
85.21
Negative
92.28
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.23
Positive
52.33
Neutral
80.07
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.33, below the 50-day MA of 83.06, and below the 200-day MA of 92.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EL.
The Estée Lauder Companies Risk Analysis
The Estée Lauder Companies disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The Estée Lauder Companies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
The Estée Lauder Companies Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $3.88B | 23.15 | 19.50% | 3.80% | 1.87% | 2.00% | |
76 Outperform | $347.68B | 21.85 | 31.32% | 2.92% | 3.33% | 8.06% | |
69 Neutral | $131.06B | 29.03 | 26.01% | 3.74% | -13.78% | 11.80% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $4.37B | 169.08 | 2.48% | ― | 24.59% | -76.41% | |
54 Neutral | $30.72B | -124.18 | -6.29% | 1.30% | 0.71% | 71.47% | |
52 Neutral | $1.98B | -3.60 | -15.12% | ― | -3.57% | -32.30% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies
84.44
0.12
0.14%
IPAR
Inter Parfums
122.25
-8.72
-6.65%
PG
Procter & Gamble
152.75
-0.73
-0.47%
UL
Unilever
62.74
-0.33
-0.52%
COTY
Coty
2.23
-2.71
-54.86%
ELF
e.l.f. Beauty
75.34
-41.65
-35.60%
The Estée Lauder Companies Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Estée Lauder Confirms Merger Talks With Puig Group
Neutral
Mar 24, 2026
On March 23, 2026, The Estée Lauder Companies confirmed it is in talks with Spanish beauty group Puig about a potential business combination that would merge their operations. The company emphasized that no final decision has been made and no...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.