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The Estée Lauder Companies (EL)
NYSE:EL
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The Estée Lauder Companies (EL) AI Stock Analysis

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EL

The Estée Lauder Companies

(NYSE:EL)

Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$90.00
▲(1.12%Upside)
The overall stock score of 61 reflects significant financial pressures due to declining revenues and high leverage. While technical indicators are bullish, valuation concerns persist with a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call suggests potential for recovery through strategic initiatives, but external challenges, including tariffs and travel retail pressures, remain obstacles.
Positive Factors
Earnings Recovery
Confidence in the 'Beauty Reimagined' plan is expected to drive an earnings recovery for Estee Lauder.
Management Strategy
The new management team's commitment to tripling innovation and entering faster-growing channels is set to recruit more customers.
Market Position
Estee Lauder's status as the #2 player in the $160bn global prestige beauty market highlights its strong market position.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Asia has been a significant drag on profitability, causing a substantial decline in EPS.
Retail Performance
Organic sales in 3Q25 saw a decline, driven by a double-digit drop in the global travel retail business and softness in North America.
Sales Outlook
The sales outlook remains uncertain, especially in Asia travel retail, due to slower-than-expected recovery in key regions.

The Estée Lauder Companies (EL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

The Estée Lauder Companies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company offers a range of skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, cleansing devices, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as lipsticks, lip glosses, mascaras, foundations, eyeshadows, nail polishes, and powders, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also provides fragrance products in various forms comprising eau de parfum sprays and colognes, as well as lotions, powders, creams, candles, and soaps; and hair care products that include shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair color products, as well as sells ancillary products and services. The company offers its products under Estée Lauder, Aramis, Clinique, Lab Series, Origins, M·A·C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Aveda, Jo Malone London, Bumble and bumble, Darphin, Smashbox, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, GLAMGLOW, By Kilian, BECCA, Too Faced, Dr. Jart+, DECIEM, and The Ordinary brands. It also holds license arrangements for Tommy Hilfiger, Donna Karan New York, DKNY, Michael Kors, and Ermenegildo Zegna brands. The company sells its products through department stores, specialty-multi retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and salons and spas; freestanding stores; its own and authorized retailer websites; third-party online malls; stores in airports; and in-flight and duty-free shops. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyThe Estée Lauder Companies generates revenue primarily through the sale of its premium beauty and personal care products. The company earns income from multiple key revenue streams, including department stores, specialty multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries, pharmacies, and its own branded retail stores and websites. A significant portion of its earnings comes from international markets, with a strong presence in Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Additionally, strategic partnerships and collaborations with influencers and celebrities help enhance brand visibility and drive sales. The company also invests in digital marketing and technology to boost its online sales, which have become an increasingly important component of its revenue model.

The Estée Lauder Companies Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Analyzes revenue from different business segments, highlighting which product lines or services are driving growth and which may need strategic adjustments.
Chart InsightsThe Estée Lauder Companies' revenue from Skin Care and Makeup segments shows a declining trend, reflecting challenges in organic sales and travel retail. However, the Fragrance and Other segments are showing resilience with stable growth. The earnings call highlights effective cost management and market share gains in key regions, which are promising despite the 9% organic sales decline. Strategic initiatives like the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan are driving gross margin expansion, but new tariffs pose a risk to future performance. The company aims to return to sales growth by fiscal 2026.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

The Estée Lauder Companies Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: 49.20%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive developments, such as gross margin expansion and market share gains, alongside significant challenges, including a decline in organic sales and ongoing pressure in travel retail. The company's strategic initiatives show promise, but external factors like tariffs pose risks.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Gross Margin Expansion
Gross margin expanded over 300 basis points for the fourth consecutive quarter, driven by operational efficiencies and strategic pricing actions.
Market Share Gains
The company gained market share in the U.S., China, and Japan, with Clinique, The Ordinary, and Bumble and bumble leading gains in the U.S. and La Mer, Estée Lauder, and TOM FORD driving gains in China and Japan.
Successful Strategic Initiatives
New brand launches and platform expansions on Amazon, Shopee, and TikTok contributed to a mid-single-digit growth in online organic sales.
Significant Cost Reductions
Through the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP), the company reduced over 2,600 net positions and achieved a 30% reduction in executive team expenses.
Negative Updates
Decline in Organic Sales
Organic sales declined by 9%, with travel retail sales dropping 28% organically.
Earnings Per Share and Operating Margin Decline
Diluted earnings per share decreased by 33%, and the operating margin contracted by 270 basis points to 11.4%.
Challenges in Travel Retail
Travel retail continues to shrink as a percentage of the business, highlighting ongoing pressure in this segment.
Pressure from New Tariffs
The newly enacted tariffs are expected to have a material impact on fiscal 2026 unless a resolution is achieved.
Company Guidance
During The Estée Lauder Companies' Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Conference Call, several metrics and strategic initiatives were highlighted. The company reported a 9% decline in organic sales for the quarter, with a 3% decrease in business excluding travel retail, and a 28% decline in travel retail. Despite challenges, diluted earnings per share decreased by 33%, which exceeded expectations, demonstrating effective expense management. Gross margin expanded by over 300 basis points, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of improvement, driven by the Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP). Operating margin stood at 11.4%, contracting by 270 basis points due to increased consumer-facing spending. The company gained market share in key markets such as the U.S., China, and Japan, driven by brands like Clinique, The Ordinary, and La Mer. Additionally, Estée Lauder introduced innovations across prestige price tiers and expanded online sales, with mid-single-digit growth driven by pure play and third-party platforms. Looking ahead, the company aims to return to sales growth in fiscal 2026, focusing on mitigating the impact of tariffs and optimizing supply chain strategies.

The Estée Lauder Companies Financial Statement Overview

Summary
The Estée Lauder Companies are facing financial challenges, with declining revenues and net losses affecting profitability. The balance sheet shows high leverage, posing potential risks. However, the company maintains positive cash flows, indicating operational resilience.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The Estée Lauder Companies faced significant challenges with a negative net income and EBIT for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), leading to negative profit margins. Revenue decreased by approximately 10.9% from the previous year, pointing to declining sales performance. Despite these setbacks, the gross profit margin remains relatively healthy at approximately 78.6%, indicating efficient production costs management.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company's balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 2.07, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Stockholders' equity constitutes around 21.8% of total assets, reflecting moderate equity coverage. Return on equity is negative due to the net loss, highlighting profitability challenges.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
The cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow of $948 million for TTM, although it decreased by 34.2% compared to the previous year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative due to net losses, but the company maintains a positive operating cash flow, underscoring some operational strength.
BreakdownJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue15.61B15.91B17.74B16.21B14.29B
Gross Profit11.18B11.35B13.43B12.38B10.74B
EBITDA1.98B2.35B3.79B3.66B2.71B
Net Income390.00M1.01B2.39B2.87B684.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets21.68B23.41B20.91B21.97B17.78B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.40B4.03B3.96B4.96B5.02B
Total Debt9.83B10.17B7.64B8.10B8.79B
Total Liabilities16.36B17.00B14.48B15.02B13.82B
Stockholders Equity5.31B5.58B5.59B6.09B3.96B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.44B-1.56B2.00B2.99B1.66B
Operating Cash Flow2.36B1.73B3.04B3.63B2.28B
Investing Cash Flow-960.00M-3.22B-945.00M-1.86B-1.70B
Financing Cash Flow-2.04B1.52B-3.04B-1.89B1.46B

The Estée Lauder Companies Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price89.00
Price Trends
50DMA
74.93
Positive
100DMA
68.59
Positive
200DMA
72.44
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.85
Positive
RSI
64.90
Neutral
STOCH
38.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.45, above the 50-day MA of 74.93, and above the 200-day MA of 72.44, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.85 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 64.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for EL.

The Estée Lauder Companies Risk Analysis

The Estée Lauder Companies disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The Estée Lauder Companies reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

The Estée Lauder Companies Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
$4.16B25.1722.16%2.98%10.32%18.55%
ELELF
72
Outperform
$6.67B58.1215.97%28.28%-14.79%
ULUL
71
Outperform
$146.85B23.9530.53%0.05%1.99%-10.59%
CLCL
66
Neutral
$70.38B24.59977.07%2.93%0.98%12.12%
62
Neutral
$16.95B11.10-7.23%3.24%1.71%-24.93%
ELEL
61
Neutral
$31.37B147.29-17.27%2.75%-3.70%-235.59%
60
Neutral
$4.29B40.12-10.58%-1.68%-302.11%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies
89.00
-8.79
-8.99%
CL
Colgate-Palmolive
88.70
-5.73
-6.07%
IPAR
Inter Parfums
129.10
-5.96
-4.41%
UL
Unilever
60.34
4.89
8.82%
COTY
Coty
5.01
-4.94
-49.65%
ELF
e.l.f. Beauty
116.05
-61.38
-34.59%

The Estée Lauder Companies Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Estée Lauder Announces Board Member Departures
Neutral
Jul 15, 2025

On July 9, 2025, Lynn Forester de Rothschild announced she would not seek re-election as a Class II director at The Estée Lauder Companies‘ 2025 Annual Meeting, ending her tenure since 2000. Angela Wei Dong also announced her retirement from the Board effective the day before the 2025 Annual Meeting. Both departures are not due to disagreements with the company, and the company expressed gratitude for their contributions.

The most recent analyst rating on (EL) stock is a Hold with a $80.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The Estée Lauder Companies stock, see the EL Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Estée Lauder Updates Bylaws for Strategic Alignment
Neutral
May 23, 2025

On May 22, 2025, The Estée Lauder Companies‘ Board of Directors approved significant amendments to the company’s bylaws. These changes include revised procedures for stockholder proposals and director nominations, provisions for exclusive forum selection, and updates to indemnification and board committee appointments, reflecting a strategic alignment with Delaware law.

The most recent analyst rating on (EL) stock is a Hold with a $100.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on The Estée Lauder Companies stock, see the EL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025