Coty (COTY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.25B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 9.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: -5.68%
• EPS Growth: -358.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,791
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Household & Personal Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 880,006,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 14,630,162
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 9,279,397
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.69
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.61
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.51
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 77.18
• 1Y Price Target: $3.69
• Price Target Upside: 41.47% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.50 ▼(-4.21% Downside)

The score is held back primarily by the recent swing to net losses and weak technical trend signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Solid cash flow generation and the Wella divestiture/deleveraging plan provide support, but management’s guidance points to continued near-term pressure with a longer-dated profit recovery.

Positive Factors

Brand Portfolio Diversification

Coty’s multi‑segment brand portfolio (Luxury, Consumer, Professional) and licensing model spreads revenue across channels and price points. This diversification reduces dependency on any single franchise or geography, supporting resilient cash flow and allowing reallocation of resources to higher‑growth brands over time.

Strong Cash Generation

Consistent positive operating and free cash flow provides durable capacity to service debt, fund innovation and support restructuring without relying solely on earnings. Strong cash conversion cushions near‑term profit volatility and gives management flexibility to invest in e‑commerce and productivity initiatives over the medium term.

Wella Divestiture & Deleveraging

Monetizing the Wella stake converts a non‑core, illiquid holding into substantial cash for debt reduction and strategic focus. Reducing leverage improves financial flexibility and lowers interest burdens, allowing management to concentrate capital on core beauty segments and brand innovation with a clearer capital allocation lens.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage & Constrained Balance Sheet

Meaningful leverage limits flexibility if profitability remains pressured and raises refinancing risk in adverse markets. Even with sizable equity, negative returns on equity and elevated net leverage reduce the company’s ability to pursue opportunistic M&A or accelerate reinvestment without first restoring sustained profit recovery.

Profitability Deterioration

A sharp swing to net losses and negative margins undermines durable earnings power and delays internal reinvestment. Accounting losses, even with positive cash flow, erode retained capital and heighten execution risk; management projects a clearer profit recovery only by fiscal 2027, prolonging performance uncertainty.

Consumer Beauty Underperformance & SKU Issues

Chronic underperformance in Consumer Beauty, combined with prior over‑innovation and SKU proliferation, produces trade returns, promotional pressure and inventory actions that depress sell‑in and margins. Remediation (SKU pruning, portfolio rationalization) improves long‑term efficiency but creates near‑term revenue and execution drag.

Coty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Coty Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of beauty products worldwide. The company provides prestige fragrances, skin care, and color cosmetics products through prestige retailers, including perfumeries, department stores, e-retailers, direct-to-consumer websites, and duty-free shops under the Alexander McQueen, Burberry, Bottega Veneta, Calvin Klein, Cavalli, Chloe, Davidoff, Escada, Gucci, Hugo Boss, Jil Sander, Joop!, Kylie Jenner, Lacoste, Lancaster, Marc Jacobs, Miu Miu, Nikos, philosophy, Kim Kardashian West, and Tiffany & Co. brands. It also offers mass color cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, and body care products primarily through hypermarkets, supermarkets, drug stores, pharmacies, mid-tier department stores, traditional food and drug retailers, and e-commerce retailers under the Adidas, Beckham, Biocolor, Bozzano, Bourjois, Bruno Banani, CoverGirl, Jovan, Max Factor, Mexx, Monange, Nautica, Paixao, Rimmel, Risque, Sally Hansen, Stetson, and 007 James Bond brands. Coty Inc. also sells its products through third-party distributors to approximately 150 countries and territories. The company was founded in 1904 and is based in New York, New York. Coty Inc. is a subsidiary of Cottage Holdco B.V.

How the Company Makes Money

Coty generates revenue primarily through the sale of beauty products across its different segments. The Luxury segment focuses on high-end fragrances and cosmetics, contributing significantly to overall sales, particularly through partnerships with prestigious fashion houses. The Consumer Beauty segment includes mass-market cosmetics and skincare products, which are widely distributed through retail channels such as drugstores and supermarkets. The Professional Beauty segment, which includes salon products, leverages partnerships with hair salons and stylists to drive sales. Additionally, Coty benefits from licensing agreements that allow it to produce and sell products under various brand names. The company's strategic collaborations, such as those with e-commerce platforms and beauty influencers, also play a crucial role in enhancing its market reach and driving revenue growth.

Coty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: revenue growth and consistently strong gross margins are offset by a sharp swing to significant net losses and negative returns on equity. Free cash flow and operating cash flow remain solid and supportive, but elevated leverage reduces flexibility if profitability stays pressured.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown in the most recent TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) period (+15%), but profitability has weakened sharply: net income is deeply negative (about -$534M) and margins turned negative, versus solid profitability in FY2022–FY2024 (including positive net income in FY2022–FY2024 and notably strong FY2023). Gross margin remains high and stable (~64–65%), but the drop from positive operating profit in FY2023–FY2024 to weak/negative profitability in TTM raises concern about sustainability and earnings quality near-term.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is elevated with debt running around ~1.0–1.5x equity across the period, which limits flexibility if profits stay pressured. Equity is sizable (~$3.5B in TTM), but returns on equity are negative in TTM and FY2025, following stronger positive returns in FY2022–FY2024. Overall, the balance sheet is serviceable but constrained by meaningful leverage and a recent deterioration in shareholder returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a bright spot: TTM operating cash flow is strong (~$586M) and free cash flow is solid (~$394M), with very strong TTM free cash flow growth. Free cash flow has remained positive across all years shown, supporting debt service and reinvestment capacity. The key weakness is that cash flow strength is occurring alongside reported net losses in TTM and FY2025, indicating a gap between accounting earnings and cash results that bears monitoring.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.81B	5.89B	6.12B	5.55B	5.30B	4.63B
Gross Profit	3.63B	3.82B	3.94B	3.55B	3.38B	2.78B
EBITDA	70.80M	949.90M	1.00B	964.90M	856.30M	744.50M
Net Income	-530.20M	-367.90M	89.40M	508.20M	259.50M	-201.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.08B	11.91B	12.08B	12.66B	12.12B	13.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	448.00M	257.10M	300.80M	246.90M	233.30M	253.50M
Total Debt	3.62B	4.25B	4.12B	4.55B	4.78B	5.80B
Total Liabilities	7.27B	7.95B	7.83B	8.43B	8.56B	9.51B
Stockholders Equity	3.53B	3.69B	3.97B	3.95B	3.30B	3.90B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	393.80M	277.60M	369.40M	402.90M	552.50M	144.80M
Operating Cash Flow	585.60M	492.60M	614.60M	625.70M	726.60M	318.70M
Investing Cash Flow	638.50M	-128.40M	-226.20M	-118.20M	269.70M	2.44B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.07B	-426.80M	-336.70M	-469.30M	-1.03B	-2.80B

Coty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.61
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COTY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.96, below the 50-day MA of 3.10, and below the 200-day MA of 4.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.84 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for COTY.

Coty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IPAR	75 Outperform	$3.23B	19.69	19.95%	3.80%	3.12%	9.01%
SPB	68 Neutral	$1.79B	18.11	4.92%	3.15%	-5.21%	1.96%
ELF	64 Neutral	$5.15B	49.76	10.77%	―	13.80%	-25.02%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
EL	55 Neutral	$40.56B	-223.07	-4.34%	1.30%	-6.36%	-554.84%
EPC	52 Neutral	$1.03B	-26.09	1.62%	3.51%	-1.34%	-73.59%
COTY	51 Neutral	$2.25B	-4.19	-14.50%	―	-5.68%	-358.36%

Coty Corporate Events

Coty Overhauls Leadership With New Executive Chairman CEO

On December 20, 2025, Coty’s board appointed former Procter & Gamble executive Markus Strobel as Executive Chairman and Interim CEO, effective January 1, 2026, with a significant compensation package of salary, bonus eligibility and long-term equity incentives tied to service and performance through 2028. Strobel, known for leading P&G’s Global Skin & Personal Care business and revitalizing prestige brands in Asia and other key regions, will guide Coty at what the company calls a pivotal moment, as it conducts a strategic review of its Consumer Beauty division and seeks to consolidate its leadership and profitable growth prospects in both prestige and mass beauty. The leadership changes also include the planned separation of CEO Sue Y. Nabi, who will step down and leave the board on December 31, 2025 under a separation agreement that provides cash in lieu of notice and partial vesting of restricted stock units, while other unvested equity is forfeited. In parallel, long-standing Chairman Peter Harf will resign from the board on December 31, 2025 after more than three decades of involvement, to be succeeded in board leadership by Strobel and joined by new director Patricia Capel, who will take a board seat and join the Remuneration and Nomination Committee on January 1, 2026, reflecting a broad reshaping of Coty’s top governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (COTY) stock is a Sell with a $3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coty stock, see the COTY Stock Forecast page.

Coty Completes Wella Divestiture to Sharpen Core Focus

On December 18, 2025, Coty JV Holding S.à r.l., an indirect subsidiary of Coty Inc., agreed to sell its remaining shareholdings in Rainbow JVCo, which represents Coty’s residual 25.8% stake in professional haircare group Wella, to KKR-managed entities for $750 million in cash plus a non-cash consideration that will give Coty JV a 45% equity interest in the buyer vehicle and rights to a significant share of future Wella exit proceeds. As part of the transaction, Coty JV entered into a new shareholders’ agreement that grants it consent rights on certain corporate actions at the buyer level, board observer rights, and tag-along and drag-along protections, while terminating a prior shareholders’ agreement related to Rainbow JVCo, and Coty expects to record an estimated non-cash impairment charge of approximately $200 million in the quarter ended December 31, 2025. The deal, announced on December 19, 2025, completes Coty’s multi-year program begun in 2020 to monetize and fully divest its Wella stake by the end of calendar 2025, simplifies Coty’s portfolio, and is intended to substantially reduce its financial net leverage through debt repayment using most of the $750 million upfront proceeds, reinforcing its deleveraging strategy and sharpening its strategic focus on core beauty operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (COTY) stock is a Hold with a $3.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Coty stock, see the COTY Stock Forecast page.