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Coty
(NYSE:COTY)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▲(5.93% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/08/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (revenue deterioration and a swing to losses), partially offset by still-positive free cash flow. Technicals show improving short-term momentum but an overall downtrend versus the 200-day average. Valuation remains challenged due to negative earnings, while the earnings call and the Gucci-related event add some support through a clearer recovery plan and additional cash for deleveraging.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Coty's positive TTM operating cash flow (~$505M) and free cash flow (~$311M) provide durable internal funding to reduce debt, support targeted reinvestment and fund working-capital needs even while accounting earnings are weak. This cash generation underpins medium-term financial flexibility.
Negative Factors
Revenue Decline & Losses
A sharp TTM revenue decline (~30%) and a swing to deeper losses reduce operating scale and leverage. Persistent top-line weakness impairs reinvestment capacity, pressures retailer relationships and makes margin recovery contingent on sustained product/portfolio execution across channels over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Coty's positive TTM operating cash flow (~$505M) and free cash flow (~$311M) provide durable internal funding to reduce debt, support targeted reinvestment and fund working-capital needs even while accounting earnings are weak. This cash generation underpins medium-term financial flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Coty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Coty is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Coty is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoty (COTY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.30B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)14.85M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth-3.57%
EPS Growth-32.30%
CountryUS
Employees11,636
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryHousehold & Personal Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.62
Shares Outstanding880,466,430
10 Day Avg. Volume9,757,659
30 Day Avg. Volume14,849,753
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio14.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.42Price Target Upside44.92% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.74B
Coty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Coty Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells branded beauty products worldwide. It operates through two segments: the Prestige and Consumer Beauty. The company provides fragrance, color cosmetics, and sk...
How the Company Makes Money
Coty makes money primarily by selling beauty products to retailers, distributors, and directly to consumers, generating revenue when its products are shipped/sold through these channels. Its key revenue streams are (1) fragrance sales, including b...
Coty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but constructive picture: management outlined clear strategic moves (Coty.Curated, SKU rationalization, reallocated A&CP, stronger joint retail planning) and early positive results for key consumer franchises, while acknowledging material near-term headwinds including Middle East/travel retail disruption, elevated promotions, E&O/returns, tariff and oil-related inflation impacts. Execution improvements and working-capital benefits are expected to drive a recovery in performance over several quarters, but several measurable risks may weigh on near-term EBITDA.Positive Updates
Market Growth Environment
Global beauty market grew ~5% in Q3 (both Prestige and mass channels), demonstrating consumer resilience and continued demand across price tiers.
Negative Updates
Sell-in vs Sellout Gap
Q3 sell-in trailed sellout across Prestige and Consumer due to a combination of Middle East disruption, elevated promotions (gross-to-net pressure) and European retailers having stocked up for holidays then working down inventory, creating short-term sell-in weakness.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Market Growth Environment
Global beauty market grew ~5% in Q3 (both Prestige and mass channels), demonstrating consumer resilience and continued demand across price tiers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q3 showed early signs of improvement but considerable volatility remains: the market grew ~5% in Q3 (5% Prestige, 5% mass), CoverGirl and Sally Hansen are now growing in unit volumes versus the category and catching up in value, and some new SKUs are performing as much as 3x above objectives; Middle East—which management said has been growing in the mid‑teens for the region—is a mid‑single‑digit percentage of Coty’s net revenue and is a clear headwind (travel‑retail especially), tariffs have cost roughly $30 million to the P&L this year, A&CP spend was flat in Q3 (up as a percentage of sales), and Laurent noted a sensitivity of roughly $1 of oil inflation equating to ~$2 million impact on profit (with procurement protections expected to mitigate oil inflation by end‑calendar‑2026); management expects to exit Orveda by the end of the fiscal year and to improve EBITDA trends year‑on‑year in FY27 as sell‑out focus, SKU rationalization and working‑capital gains drive margin recovery.Coty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.79B | 5.89B | 6.12B | 5.55B | 5.30B | 4.63B |
| Gross Profit | 3.51B | 3.82B | 3.94B | 3.55B | 3.38B | 2.78B |
| EBITDA | 100.70M | 949.90M | 1.00B | 964.90M | 856.30M | 744.50M |
| Net Income | -532.60M | -367.90M | 89.40M | 508.20M | 259.50M | -201.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.23B | 11.91B | 12.08B | 12.66B | 12.12B | 13.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 270.20M | 257.10M | 300.80M | 246.90M | 233.30M | 253.50M |
| Total Debt | 3.57B | 4.25B | 4.12B | 4.55B | 4.78B | 5.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.87B | 7.95B | 7.83B | 8.43B | 8.56B | 9.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.09B | 3.69B | 3.97B | 3.95B | 3.30B | 3.90B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 310.50M | 277.60M | 369.40M | 402.90M | 552.50M | 144.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 505.00M | 492.60M | 614.60M | 625.70M | 726.60M | 318.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 564.80M | -128.40M | -226.20M | -118.20M | 269.70M | 2.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.08B | -426.80M | -336.70M | -469.30M | -1.03B | -2.80B |
Coty Technical Analysis
Positive
2.36
Price Trends
2.12
Positive
2.20
Positive
2.80
Negative
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
75.87
Negative
92.31
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COTY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.20, above the 50-day MA of 2.12, and below the 200-day MA of 2.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.87 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.31 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for COTY.
Coty Risk Analysis
Coty disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Coty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $3.95B | 23.56 | 19.50% | 3.80% | 1.87% | 2.00% | |
70 Outperform | $2.06B | 16.73 | 6.65% | 3.15% | -3.76% | 148.09% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $4.34B | 172.66 | 2.48% | ― | 24.59% | -76.41% | |
56 Neutral | $1.37B | -16.92 | -5.14% | 3.51% | -5.30% | -196.78% | |
54 Neutral | $29.71B | -123.00 | -6.29% | 1.30% | 0.71% | 71.47% | |
52 Neutral | $2.30B | -4.36 | -15.12% | ― | -3.57% | -32.30% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
COTY
Coty
2.70
-2.07
-43.40%
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies
83.64
-1.16
-1.36%
IPAR
Inter Parfums
124.40
-0.41
-0.33%
SPB
Spectrum Brands Holdings
88.49
33.98
62.34%
EPC
Edgewell Personal Care
28.59
3.89
15.73%
ELF
e.l.f. Beauty
79.65
-31.96
-28.64%
Coty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsM&A Transactions
Coty to End Gucci Beauty License, Redeploy Capital
Positive
Jul 7, 2026
On July 7, 2026, Coty announced an agreement with Kering to terminate and transition the Gucci Beauty license roughly one year ahead of schedule, with the license now set to end on June 30, 2027, subject to a possible extension at Kering’s r...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Coty Announces Resignation of Chief People and Purpose Officer
Neutral
Jul 2, 2026
Coty Inc. reported that on June 30, 2026, Chief People and Purpose Officer Priya Srinivasan submitted her resignation, with her departure scheduled to take effect on August 31, 2026. The company stated that Srinivasan’s resignation does not ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.