Coty (COTY)
NYSE:COTY
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Coty
(NYSE:COTY)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-15.25% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
Overall score reflects weak recent financial performance (sales decline and losses) partially offset by positive free cash flow and a stable capital structure. Technical indicators are modestly supportive in the short term, while valuation is pressured by negative earnings. Earnings call commentary adds some support from an expected multi-quarter operational recovery, but meaningful near-term macro and execution risks remain.
Positive Factors
High gross margin (~62% TTM)
TTM gross margin near 62% indicates durable product-level pricing power and favorable mix between prestige and consumer beauty. High gross margins provide a structural buffer to absorb marketing, promotions and input-cost swings while management executes SKU rationalization and margin recovery initiatives.
Negative Factors
Material revenue decline (~30% TTM)
A roughly 30% TTM revenue decline signals deteriorating top-line reach and weaker retailer positioning. Sustained revenue compression reduces operating leverage, complicates margin recovery and requires either meaningful market-share regain or price/mix improvements to restore durable profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margin (~62% TTM)
TTM gross margin near 62% indicates durable product-level pricing power and favorable mix between prestige and consumer beauty. High gross margins provide a structural buffer to absorb marketing, promotions and input-cost swings while management executes SKU rationalization and margin recovery initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Coty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Coty is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Coty is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCoty (COTY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.81B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)7.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth-3.57%
EPS Growth-32.30%
CountryUS
Employees11,791
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryHousehold & Personal Products
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.62
Shares Outstanding880,466,430
10 Day Avg. Volume7,833,295
30 Day Avg. Volume7,650,742
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.69
P/FCF Ratio14.61
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.82
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.88
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.46
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.29
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.34Price Target Upside41.53% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.74B
Coty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Coty Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of beauty products worldwide. The company provides prestige fragrances, skin care, and color cosmetics products through prestige retailers, in...
How the Company Makes Money
Coty primarily makes money by selling beauty and personal care products to retailers, distributors, and e-commerce partners (and, in some cases, directly to consumers online). Its revenue is largely product-sales driven and is typically organized ...
Coty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but constructive picture: management outlined clear strategic moves (Coty.Curated, SKU rationalization, reallocated A&CP, stronger joint retail planning) and early positive results for key consumer franchises, while acknowledging material near-term headwinds including Middle East/travel retail disruption, elevated promotions, E&O/returns, tariff and oil-related inflation impacts. Execution improvements and working-capital benefits are expected to drive a recovery in performance over several quarters, but several measurable risks may weigh on near-term EBITDA.Positive Updates
Market Growth Environment
Global beauty market grew ~5% in Q3 (both Prestige and mass channels), demonstrating consumer resilience and continued demand across price tiers.
Negative Updates
Sell-in vs Sellout Gap
Q3 sell-in trailed sellout across Prestige and Consumer due to a combination of Middle East disruption, elevated promotions (gross-to-net pressure) and European retailers having stocked up for holidays then working down inventory, creating short-term sell-in weakness.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Market Growth Environment
Global beauty market grew ~5% in Q3 (both Prestige and mass channels), demonstrating consumer resilience and continued demand across price tiers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Q3 showed early signs of improvement but considerable volatility remains: the market grew ~5% in Q3 (5% Prestige, 5% mass), CoverGirl and Sally Hansen are now growing in unit volumes versus the category and catching up in value, and some new SKUs are performing as much as 3x above objectives; Middle East—which management said has been growing in the mid‑teens for the region—is a mid‑single‑digit percentage of Coty’s net revenue and is a clear headwind (travel‑retail especially), tariffs have cost roughly $30 million to the P&L this year, A&CP spend was flat in Q3 (up as a percentage of sales), and Laurent noted a sensitivity of roughly $1 of oil inflation equating to ~$2 million impact on profit (with procurement protections expected to mitigate oil inflation by end‑calendar‑2026); management expects to exit Orveda by the end of the fiscal year and to improve EBITDA trends year‑on‑year in FY27 as sell‑out focus, SKU rationalization and working‑capital gains drive margin recovery.Coty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.79B | 5.89B | 6.12B | 5.55B | 5.30B | 4.63B |
| Gross Profit | 3.51B | 3.82B | 3.94B | 3.55B | 3.38B | 2.78B |
| EBITDA | 496.50M | 949.90M | 1.00B | 964.90M | 856.30M | 744.50M |
| Net Income | -532.60M | -367.90M | 89.40M | 508.20M | 259.50M | -201.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.23B | 11.91B | 12.08B | 12.66B | 12.12B | 13.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 270.20M | 257.10M | 300.80M | 246.90M | 233.30M | 253.50M |
| Total Debt | 3.57B | 4.25B | 4.12B | 4.55B | 4.78B | 5.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 6.87B | 7.95B | 7.83B | 8.43B | 8.56B | 9.51B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.09B | 3.69B | 3.97B | 3.95B | 3.30B | 3.90B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 310.50M | 277.60M | 369.40M | 402.90M | 552.50M | 144.80M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 505.00M | 492.60M | 614.60M | 625.70M | 726.60M | 318.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 564.80M | -128.40M | -226.20M | -118.20M | 269.70M | 2.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.08B | -426.80M | -336.70M | -469.30M | -1.03B | -2.80B |
Coty Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.36
Price Trends
2.34
Positive
2.78
Negative
3.56
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
62.19
Neutral
85.18
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For COTY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.13, above the 50-day MA of 2.34, and below the 200-day MA of 3.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.18 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for COTY.
Coty Risk Analysis
Coty disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Coty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Coty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.76B | 16.77 | 19.50% | 3.80% | 1.87% | 2.00% | |
70 Outperform | $1.79B | 18.99 | 6.65% | 3.15% | -3.76% | 148.09% | |
64 Neutral | $3.33B | 28.63 | 10.75% | ― | 16.73% | 3.11% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
54 Neutral | $29.04B | 73.12 | -6.29% | 1.30% | 0.71% | 71.47% | |
52 Neutral | $1.81B | -1.08 | -15.12% | ― | -3.57% | -32.30% | |
47 Neutral | $734.08M | -23.40 | -4.17% | 3.51% | -5.30% | -196.78% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
COTY
Coty
2.06
-2.97
-59.05%
EL
The Estée Lauder Companies
80.28
15.95
24.80%
IPAR
Inter Parfums
86.16
-38.03
-30.62%
SPB
Spectrum Brands Holdings
77.08
15.36
24.89%
EPC
Edgewell Personal Care
15.93
-11.77
-42.50%
ELF
e.l.f. Beauty
56.43
-23.14
-29.08%
Coty Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Coty Refreshes Board with New Independent Directors
Positive
Mar 18, 2026
Coty announced a major refresh of its Board of Directors on March 18, 2026, appointing five new independent directors with extensive experience in global beauty, luxury, consumer brands, and finance. The new directors – Carsten Fischer, Alia...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.