Tempest Security AB (TSEC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr107.46M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.95K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.11
• Revenue Growth: 9.39%
• EPS Growth: -378.80%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 557
• Sector: Services
• Sector Strength: N/A
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.08
• Shares Outstanding: 10,483,549
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 12,352
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,949
• PEG Ratio: 0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.22
• P/FCF Ratio: -55.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): kr612.00M

• Rating: 41 Neutral
• Price Target: kr10.50 ▼(-17.65% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/21/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/21/26

The score is primarily held down by weakening financial performance—loss-making results, rising leverage, and a swing to negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals also lean weak with the price below key longer-term averages and a negative MACD, while valuation is pressured by negative earnings and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Consistent Revenue Growth

Steady top-line growth through 2025 indicates persistent end-market demand and successful customer retention or sales execution. Consistent revenue expansion provides a base to leverage fixed costs, supports long-term contract credibility, and gives management capacity to restore margins if cost actions are taken.

Prior Profitability Track

The company's ability to deliver profits in 2022–2023 shows the operating model can be sustainable under the right cost structure or pricing. This historical profitability gives a realistic path to margin recovery rather than indicating a permanently unprofitable business, supporting a credible turnaround thesis.

Operational Scale

A workforce of 557 suggests operational capacity and scale to serve contracts and maintain service continuity. This scale supports contract execution, cross-selling and geographic coverage, making revenue durable and helping the firm compete on service delivery in Security & Protection Services over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

Material increase in debt alongside shrinking equity meaningfully narrows the capital cushion and reduces financial flexibility. With thinner equity and higher fixed obligations, the company faces greater refinancing and covenant risk if cash generation does not improve, constraining strategic options.

Negative Profitability

A swing to negative gross and operating profit indicates fundamental margin erosion rather than a temporary blip. Persistent negative profitability undermines internal reinvestment capacity and requires substantive structural fixes—pricing, cost base or business mix—to restore sustainable earnings.

Cash Flow Weakness

The move from solid operating cash generation to cash burn raises immediate funding risk and increases dependence on external capital. Negative FCF reduces headroom for capex, acquisitions or smoothing seasonality, and elevates liquidity and refinancing concerns if losses persist.

Tempest Security AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tempest Security AB (publ) provides security and protection solutions worldwide. The company offers personal security services, such as executive protection, travel security, and residential security; security investigations, including background checks, brand and IP investigations, due diligence and litigation investigations, and protective intelligence services; security consulting services comprising enterprise security risk consulting and crisis management, as well as risk, threat, and vulnerabilities assessments; and physical security services, such as guard services and event security, as well as designs and installs alarm and CCTV systems. It serves corporate, public sector, and high net worth clients. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Tempest Security AB generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering subscription-based services for its cybersecurity products, which include software licenses and ongoing support. Additionally, the company earns income from consulting services that help organizations assess their security posture and implement tailored solutions. TSEC also partners with other tech firms to provide integrated security solutions, which can lead to shared revenue opportunities. Furthermore, government contracts and large-scale enterprise agreements contribute significantly to its earnings, providing a steady income flow.

Tempest Security AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Despite steady revenue growth, profitability deteriorated sharply with negative gross and operating profit in 2025 and continued net losses. Leverage increased (higher debt with reduced equity), and operating/free cash flow turned negative in 2025, raising funding and balance-sheet risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown consistently from 2020 to 2025, with 2025 showing mid-single-digit growth. However, profitability has deteriorated materially: 2025 shows a negative gross profit and negative operating profit, and net income remains loss-making. Results were profitable in 2022–2023 but swung sharply to large losses in 2024 and stayed negative in 2025, indicating weak cost control and an unstable earnings profile despite top-line expansion.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has increased meaningfully, with total debt rising to 75.4M in 2025 while equity fell to 18.7M, indicating a thinner capital cushion. Earlier years (2022–2023) showed a stronger equity base and more moderate leverage, but the latest year suggests balance-sheet risk has stepped up, reducing flexibility if operating performance remains pressured.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened significantly: operating cash flow and free cash flow turned negative in 2025 after being solidly positive in 2022–2024 (including strong cash flow in 2023). The swing to cash burn alongside ongoing net losses increases funding risk and makes the business more dependent on external capital if the trend persists.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	578.23M	485.63M	438.08M	424.33M	339.66M
Gross Profit	-20.79M	46.03M	401.33M	368.44M	300.64M
EBITDA	-8.65M	403.00K	21.05M	26.12M	-2.99M
Net Income	-10.68M	-51.39M	3.69M	9.87M	-12.58M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	237.10M	208.71M	241.90M	235.23M	196.55M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	18.13M	15.19M	21.16M	21.19M	26.60M
Total Debt	75.39M	36.95M	39.13M	45.25M	35.55M
Total Liabilities	218.43M	177.24M	159.79M	157.01M	145.12M
Stockholders Equity	18.67M	31.46M	80.00M	77.28M	52.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.33M	8.97M	16.26M	5.67M	1.65M
Operating Cash Flow	-2.02M	9.41M	19.09M	6.77M	3.78M
Investing Cash Flow	149.00K	-3.01M	-1.44M	-21.86M	-31.06M
Financing Cash Flow	5.01M	-12.74M	-17.50M	9.35M	24.80M

Tempest Security AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 12.75
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:TSEC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 12.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.58, above the 50-day MA of 11.12, and above the 200-day MA of 11.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.35 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:TSEC.

Tempest Security AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FIRE	76 Outperform	kr1.16B	24.40	―	2.85%	-3.93%	-7.54%
LOOMIS	71 Outperform	kr29.44B	19.07	14.28%	3.63%	2.58%	19.07%
SECU.B	69 Neutral	kr89.35B	17.47	13.13%	3.10%	-0.74%	6.55%
CNCJO.B	68 Neutral	kr501.84M	10.11	4.07%	17.16%	-1.76%	59.61%
LEVEL	56 Neutral	kr128.21M	-31.37	-1.58%	―	2.70%	85.94%
Sector *	55 Neutral	$13.29B	17.42	10.03%	0.93%	7.13%	-12.93%
TSEC	41 Neutral	kr107.46M	-10.06	―	―	9.39%	-378.80%