Firefly AB (FIRE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: kr1.13B
• Dividend Yield: 2.85%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.93K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: -3.93%
• EPS Growth: -7.54%
• Country: SE
• Employees: 167
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 2.96
• Shares Outstanding: 6,001,400
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,899
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,930
• PEG Ratio: 0.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: kr221.00 ▲(13.92% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial fundamentals (improving margins and a conservatively financed balance sheet), supported by a positive but moderate technical uptrend. Valuation is reasonable but not cheap, limiting upside from multiple expansion, and cash-flow volatility/recent net income softness is a key item to monitor.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

Extremely low leverage and rising equity create durable financial resilience. Minimal debt (≈1–2m) against a much larger equity base gives the company flexibility to fund organic growth, withstand cyclical downturns, and prioritize reinvestment or dividends without refinancing stress.

Multi-year revenue growth

Sustained ~90% growth over five years indicates persistent demand and successful commercial execution. Multi-year expansion supports scale benefits, channel traction, and deeper customer integration, forming a lasting foundation for future revenue and product/service cross-selling.

Improving margins and profitability

Meaningful margin expansion across gross and EBIT levels shows durable operational improvements and pricing or mix advantages. Higher margins translate to stronger cash generation and ROE (~31%), supporting reinvestment capacity and cushioning against competitive price pressure over time.

Negative Factors

Cash-flow volatility

Historic swings in operating and free cash flow indicate working-capital sensitivity and episodic funding strain. Even with positive OCF in recent years, negative cash-flow episodes can disrupt investment plans, push reliance on external financing, and heighten risk during weaker demand periods.

Recent slowdown in revenue growth

A marked deceleration to ~4% growth suggests the prior rapid expansion is normalizing and that incremental market opportunity may be harder to capture. Slower topline momentum constrains scale-related margin gains and raises the bar for new product or market initiatives to reignite durable growth.

Net income decline in 2025

Earnings fell even as revenue ticked up, implying margin compression from costs, mix shifts, or one-offs. This weakens earnings quality and questions the sustainability of profitability improvements, requiring management remediation to restore consistent operating leverage and cash conversion.

Firefly AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Firefly AB (publ) develops and sells industrial fire prevention and protection systems for the process industries worldwide. The company operates in two business areas, Industrial Applications and Infra Systems. The Industrial Applications business area offers customized fire prevention systems that monitor industrial processes in various areas, such as woodworking, tissue, food, bioenergy, and recycling. The Infra Systems business area provides fire and gas detection systems that monitor infrastructures, such as metros, trains, roads, and cable tunnels under the Sentio brand. It also provides flame and gas detectors under the Omniguard brand to various industries, such as the oil and gas, aerospace, and power industries. In addition, the company offers technical support, maintenance, and training services, as well as spare parts. Further, it offers solutions to the wood panel, wood working, port facility, power generation, bioenergy, tissue, food, tobacco, pulp and paper, recycling, hygiene, other, suppression, detection, and electronic nose industries. The company provides its products and services directly and through distributors. Firefly AB (publ) was founded in 1969 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.

How the Company Makes Money

Firefly AB generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its proprietary technology solutions to automotive manufacturers and fleet operators. Key revenue streams include direct sales of software licenses, hardware sales for vehicles, and subscription-based services for data analytics and real-time fleet tracking. Additionally, Firefly collaborates with strategic partners in the automotive and aerospace sectors, which allows for co-development projects and joint ventures that contribute to revenue growth. The company also benefits from government contracts and grants aimed at promoting smart mobility initiatives, further enhancing its earnings potential.

Firefly AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and meaningfully improved profitability (higher gross, EBIT, and net margins) supported by a very low-debt balance sheet and strong ROE. Offsetting factors are slower recent growth, net income declining in 2025 vs. 2024, and historical cash-flow volatility (notably negative FCF/OCF in 2022 and softer FCF in 2025).

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly from 2020 to 2025 (about +90% overall), showing solid multi-year momentum, though the latest annual growth cooled to ~4% in 2024–2025 after very strong growth in 2022–2023. Profitability improved over time: gross margin rose from ~35% (2022) to ~41% (2024), and net margin increased from ~5–6% (2020–2021) to ~9–11% (2023–2024). EBIT margin also stepped up meaningfully (from ~7% in 2020 to ~15% in 2024), supporting a high-quality earnings profile. A key watch-out is that net income declined in 2025 versus 2024 despite slightly higher revenue, suggesting some cost or mix pressure year-over-year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with minimal debt (roughly 1–2m) against a much larger equity base (about 175–189m in 2024–2025), keeping leverage extremely low. Equity has grown substantially since 2020, and total assets have scaled alongside operations, indicating strengthening financial capacity. Returns on equity are very strong (about 31% in 2023–2024), though the exceptionally high 2022 level appears boosted by a smaller equity base that year, so comparability is lower. Overall, low leverage and rising equity provide significant resilience.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally healthy in recent years: operating cash flow was positive in 2023–2025 and free cash flow remained solid, but free cash flow fell about 14% in 2025 after prior growth. Cash conversion has been good in 2023–2024 (free cash flow was close to net income), supporting earnings quality. The main weakness is volatility: 2022 showed negative operating cash flow and negative free cash flow, highlighting working-capital or investment swings that can pressure cash in weaker years.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	503.25M	497.06M	477.93M	384.43M	300.23M
Gross Profit	204.97M	204.75M	178.67M	134.06M	111.87M
EBITDA	69.99M	78.04M	60.96M	46.46M	26.64M
Net Income	47.56M	54.83M	45.24M	34.84M	18.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	307.75M	303.00M	288.45M	219.37M	192.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	80.08M	67.87M	52.96M	32.95M	52.66M
Total Debt	1.53M	2.06M	1.94M	2.16M	0.00
Total Liabilities	118.78M	127.67M	140.69M	143.58M	122.43M
Stockholders Equity	188.97M	175.33M	147.77M	75.79M	70.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	45.84M	38.77M	36.25M	-5.56M	23.87M
Operating Cash Flow	50.44M	42.54M	41.21M	-1.44M	32.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.60M	1.53M	-5.01M	-4.33M	-8.89M
Financing Cash Flow	-33.18M	-29.27M	-18.55M	-15.00M	-12.60M

Firefly AB Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 194.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:FIRE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 194 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 192.89, above the 50-day MA of 192.21, and above the 200-day MA of 188.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SE:FIRE.

Firefly AB Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FIRE	76 Outperform	kr1.13B	23.72	―	2.85%	-3.93%	-7.54%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
LEVEL	56 Neutral	kr158.48M	-54.24	-1.58%	―	2.70%	85.94%
CARE	56 Neutral	kr471.93M	14.90	―	―	1.30%	-2.54%
TSEC	41 Neutral	kr111.13M	-2.02	―	―	9.39%	-378.80%